Search results for: Uncertainty sets

Authors: Watcharin Sangma, Onsiri Chanmuang, Pitsanu Tongkhow

Abstract:

 A forecasting model for steel demand uncertainty in Thailand is proposed. It consists of trend, autocorrelation, and outliers in a hierarchical Bayesian frame work. The proposed model uses a cumulative Weibull distribution function, latent first-order autocorrelation, and binary selection, to account for trend, time-varying autocorrelation, and outliers, respectively. The Gibbs sampling Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) is used for parameter estimation. The proposed model is applied to steel demand index data in Thailand. The root mean square error (RMSE), mean absolute percentage error (MAPE), and mean absolute error (MAE) criteria are used for model comparison. The study reveals that the proposed model is more appropriate than the exponential smoothing method.

Keywords: Forecasting model, Steel demand uncertainty, Hierarchical Bayesian framework, Exponential smoothing method.

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Authors: Yi Xu, Zexiang Li

Abstract:

In inspection and workpiece localization, sampling point data is an important issue. Since the devices for sampling only sample discrete points, not the completely surface, sampling size and location of the points will be taken into consideration. In this paper a method is presented for determining the sampled points size and location for achieving efficient sampling. Firstly, uncertainty analysis of the localization parameters is investigated. A localization uncertainty model is developed to predict the uncertainty of the localization process. Using this model the minimum size of the sampled points is predicted. Secondly, based on the algebra theory an eigenvalue-optimal optimization is proposed. Then a freeform surface is used in the simulation. The proposed optimization is implemented. The simulation result shows its effectivity.

Keywords: eigenvalue-optimal optimization, freeform surface inspection, sampling size and location, sampled points.

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Authors: Takayuki Shiina

Abstract:

Mathematical programming has been applied to various problems. For many actual problems, the assumption that the parameters involved are deterministic known data is often unjustified. In such cases, these data contain uncertainty and are thus represented as random variables, since they represent information about the future. Decision-making under uncertainty involves potential risk. Stochastic programming is a commonly used method for optimization under uncertainty. A stochastic programming problem with recourse is referred to as a two-stage stochastic problem. In this study, we consider a stochastic programming problem with simple integer recourse in which the value of the recourse variable is restricted to a multiple of a nonnegative integer. The algorithm of a dynamic slope scaling procedure for solving this problem is developed by using a property of the expected recourse function. Numerical experiments demonstrate that the proposed algorithm is quite efficient. The stochastic programming model defined in this paper is quite useful for a variety of design and operational problems.

Keywords: stochastic programming problem with recourse, simple integer recourse, dynamic slope scaling procedure

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Authors: Peng Li, Chuanri Li, Tao Li

Abstract:

Reliability allocation is quite important during early design and development stages for a system to apportion its specified reliability goal to subsystems. This paper improves the reliability fuzzy allocation method, and gives concrete processes on determining the factor and sub-factor sets, weight sets, judgment set, and multi-stage fuzzy evaluation. To determine the weight of factor and sub-factor sets, the modified trapezoidal numbers are proposed to reduce errors caused by subjective factors. To decrease the fuzziness in fuzzy division, an approximation method based on linear programming is employed. To compute the explicit values of fuzzy numbers, centroid method of defuzzification is considered. An example is provided to illustrate the application of the proposed reliability allocation method based on fuzzy arithmetic.

Keywords: Reliability allocation, fuzzy arithmetic, allocation weight.

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Authors: Mojtaba Aghamiri Esfahani, Mohammad Karkon, Seyed Majid Hosseini Nezhad, Reza Hosseini-Ara

Abstract:

In this study, the effect of uncertainty in elastic modulus of a plate on free vibration response is investigated. For this purpose, the elastic modulus of the plate is modeled as stochastic variable with normal distribution. Moreover, the distance autocorrelation function is used for stochastic field. Then, by applying the finite element method and Monte Carlo simulation, stochastic finite element relations are extracted. Finally, with a numerical test, the effect of uncertainty in the elastic modulus on free vibration response of a plate is studied. The results show that the effect of uncertainty in elastic modulus of the plate cannot play an important role on the free vibration response.

Keywords: Stochastic finite elements, plate bending, free vibration, Monte Carlo, Neumann expansion method.

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Authors: C. Ardil

Abstract:

In this paper, a neutrosophic multiple criteria decision analysis method is proposed to select stealth fighter aircraft. Neutrosophic multiple criteria decision analysis methods are used to analyze the neutrosophic environment and give results under uncertainty and incompleteness. Neutrosophic numbers are used to evaluate alternatives over a set of evaluation criteria in decision making problems. Finally, the proposed model is applied to a practical decision problem for selecting stealth fighter aircraft.

Keywords: neutrosophic sets, multiple criteria decision making analysis, stealth fighter aircraft, aircraft selection, MCDMA, SVNNs

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Authors: Ali Akbar Sadat Asl

Abstract:

Diagnosis and deciding about diseases in medical fields is facing innate uncertainty which can affect the whole process of treatment. This decision is made based on expert knowledge and the way in which an expert interprets the patient's condition, and the interpretation of the various experts from the patient's condition may be different. Fuzzy logic can provide mathematical modeling for many concepts, variables, and systems that are unclear and ambiguous and also it can provide a framework for reasoning, inference, control, and decision making in conditions of uncertainty. In systems with high uncertainty and high complexity, fuzzy logic is a suitable method for modeling. In this paper, we use type-2 fuzzy logic for uncertainty modeling that is in diagnosis of leukemia. The proposed system uses an indirect-direct approach and consists of two stages: In the first stage, the inference of blood test state is determined. In this step, we use an indirect approach where the rules are extracted automatically by implementing a clustering approach. In the second stage, signs of leukemia, duration of disease until its progress and the output of the first stage are combined and the final diagnosis of the system is obtained. In this stage, the system uses a direct approach and final diagnosis is determined by the expert. The obtained results show that the type-2 fuzzy expert system can diagnose leukemia with the average accuracy about 97%.

Keywords: Expert system, leukemia, medical diagnosis, type-2 fuzzy logic.

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Authors: Samsiah Abdul Razak, Daud Mohamad

Abstract:

Molodstov-s soft sets theory was originally proposed as general mathematical tool for dealing with uncertainty problems. The matrix form has been introduced in soft set and some of its properties have been discussed. However, the formulation of soft matrix in group decision making problem only with equal importance weights of criteria, which does not show the true opinion of decision maker on each criteria. The aim of this paper is to propose a method for solving group decision making problem incorporating the importance of criteria by using soft matrices in a more objective manner. The weight of each criterion is calculated by using the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) method. An example of house selection process is given to illustrate the effectiveness of the proposed method.

Keywords: Soft set, Soft Matrix, Soft max-min decision making (SMmDM), Analytic hierarchy process (AHP)

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Authors: Abdolsalam Ghaderi

Abstract:

In this paper, the single-depot capacitated location-routing problem under uncertainty is presented. The problem aims to find the optimal location of a single depot and the routing of vehicles to serve the customers when the parameters may change under different circumstances. This problem has many applications, especially in the area of supply chain management and distribution systems. To get closer to real-world situations, travel time of vehicles, the fixed cost of vehicles usage and customers’ demand are considered as a source of uncertainty. A combined approach including robust optimization and stochastic programming was presented to deal with the uncertainty in the problem at hand. For this purpose, a mixed integer programming model is developed and a heuristic algorithm based on Variable Neighborhood Search(VNS) is presented to solve the model. Finally, the computational results are presented and future research directions are discussed.

Keywords: Location-routing problem, robust optimization, Stochastic Programming, variable neighborhood search.

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Authors: Vu Ngoc Pi

Abstract:

In this paper, a study on the applications of the optimization and regression techniques for optimal calculation of partial ratios of helical gearboxes with second-step double gear-sets for minimal cross section dimension is introduced. From the condition of the moment equilibrium of a mechanic system including three gear units and their regular resistance condition, models for calculation of the partial ratios of helical gearboxes with second-step double gear-sets were given. Especially, by regression analysis, explicit models for calculation of the partial ratios are introduced. These models allow determining the partial ratios accurately and simply.

Keywords: Gearbox design, optimal design, helical gearbox, transmission ratio.

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Authors: Qin Ding, Jim Gasvoda

Abstract:

Clustering is the process of subdividing an input data set into a desired number of subgroups so that members of the same subgroup are similar and members of different subgroups have diverse properties. Many heuristic algorithms have been applied to the clustering problem, which is known to be NP Hard. Genetic algorithms have been used in a wide variety of fields to perform clustering, however, the technique normally has a long running time in terms of input set size. This paper proposes an efficient genetic algorithm for clustering on very large data sets, especially on image data sets. The genetic algorithm uses the most time efficient techniques along with preprocessing of the input data set. We test our algorithm on both artificial and real image data sets, both of which are of large size. The experimental results show that our algorithm outperforms the k-means algorithm in terms of running time as well as the quality of the clustering.

Keywords: Clustering, data mining, genetic algorithm, image data.

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Authors: Hrudaya Ku. Tripathy, B. K. Tripathy, Pradip K. Das

Abstract:

Knowledge Discovery in Databases (KDD) has evolved into an important and active area of research because of theoretical challenges and practical applications associated with the problem of discovering (or extracting) interesting and previously unknown knowledge from very large real-world databases. Rough Set Theory (RST) is a mathematical formalism for representing uncertainty that can be considered an extension of the classical set theory. It has been used in many different research areas, including those related to inductive machine learning and reduction of knowledge in knowledge-based systems. One important concept related to RST is that of a rough relation. In this paper we presented the current status of research on applying rough set theory to KDD, which will be helpful for handle the characteristics of real-world databases. The main aim is to show how rough set and rough set analysis can be effectively used to extract knowledge from large databases.

Keywords: Data mining, Data tables, Knowledge discovery in database (KDD), Rough sets.

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Authors: Tripatjot S. Panag, J. S. Dhillon

Abstract:

The lifetime of a wireless sensor network can be effectively increased by using scheduling operations. Once the sensors are randomly deployed, the task at hand is to find the largest number of disjoint sets of sensors such that every sensor set provides complete coverage of the target area. At any instant, only one of these disjoint sets is switched on, while all other are switched off. This paper proposes a heuristic search method to find the maximum number of disjoint sets that completely cover the region. A population of randomly initialized members is made to explore the solution space. A set of heuristics has been applied to guide the members to a possible solution in their neighborhood. The heuristics escalate the convergence of the algorithm. The best solution explored by the population is recorded and is continuously updated. The proposed algorithm has been tested for applications which require sensing of multiple target points, referred to as point coverage applications. Results show that the proposed algorithm outclasses the existing algorithms. It always finds the optimum solution, and that too by making fewer number of fitness function evaluations than the existing approaches.

Keywords: Coverage, disjoint sets, heuristic, lifetime, scheduling, wireless sensor networks, WSN.

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Authors: C. Ardil

Abstract:

Aircraft have different capabilities and specifications according to the required strategic goals and objectives in operations. With various types on the market with different aircraft characteristics, it becomes difficult to select a suitable aircraft for certain operations and requirements. The entropy weighting method (EWM) is a useful, highly consistent, and reliable method for obtaining the weights of the criteria and is worth integrating with the decision uncertainty distance (DUD) method, which is more applicable and requires less computation than other methods. An illustrative example is presented to demonstrate the validity and usability of the proposed methodology. Comparing the ranking results matches the distance-based approach, which is the technique for order preference by similarity to ideal solution (TOPSIS) method, which shows the robustness of the entropy DUD hybrid method. Validity analysis shows that the proposed hybrid multiple criteria decision-making analysis (MCDMA) methodology is quantitatively stable and reliable.

Keywords: aircraft selection, decision uncertainty distance (DUD), multiple criteria decision making analysis, MCDMA, TOPSIS

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Authors: H. Rafiei, M. Rabbani

Abstract:

A novel concept to balance and tradeoff between make-to-stock and make-to-order has been hybrid MTS/MTO production context. One of the most important decisions involved in the hybrid MTS/MTO environment is determining whether a product is manufactured to stock, to order, or hybrid MTS/MTO strategy. In this paper, a model based on analytic network process is developed to tackle the addressed decision. Since the regarded decision deals with the uncertainty and ambiguity of data as well as experts- and managers- linguistic judgments, the proposed model is equipped with fuzzy sets theory. An important attribute of the model is its generality due to diverse decision factors which are elicited from the literature and developed by the authors. Finally, the model is validated by applying to a real case study to reveal how the proposed model can actually be implemented.

Keywords: Fuzzy analytic network process, Hybrid make-tostock/ make-to-order, Order partitioning, Production planning.

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Authors: Nedjima Mouhoubi, Souad Sassi Boudemagh

Abstract:

In this paper, we will try to demonstrate the importance of the project approach in the urban to deal with uncertainty, the importance of the involvement of all stakeholders in the urban project process and that the absence of an actor can lead to project failure but also the importance of the urban project management. These points are handled through the following questions: Does the urban adhere to the theory of complexity? Does the project approach bring hope and solution to make urban planning "sustainable"? How converging visions of actors for the same project? Is the management of urban project the solution to support the urban project approach?

Keywords: Strategic planning, project, urban project stakeholders, management.

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Authors: H. Ashrafi, S. Ebrahimi, H. Kamalzadeh

Abstract:

With the development of business competition, it is important for healthcare providers to improve their service qualities. In order to improve service quality of a clinic, four important dimensions are defined: tangibles, responsiveness, empathy, and reliability. Moreover, there are several service stages in hospitals such as financial screening and examination. One of the most challenging limitations for improving service quality is budget which impressively affects the service quality. In this paper, we present an approach to address budget uncertainty and provide guidelines for service resource allocation. In this paper, a service quality improvement approach is proposed which can be adopted to multistage service processes to improve service quality, while controlling the costs. A multi-objective function based on the importance of each area and dimension is defined to link operational variables to service quality dimensions. The results demonstrate that our approach is not ultra-conservative and it shows the actual condition very well. Moreover, it is shown that different strategies can affect the number of employees in different stages.

Keywords: Service quality assessment, healthcare resource allocation, robust optimization, budget uncertainty.

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Authors: Sukrit Shankar, Chetana Shanta Patsa, Jaydev Sharma

Abstract:

Fractional Fourier Transform is a generalization of the classical Fourier Transform which is often symbolized as the rotation in time- frequency plane. Similar to the product of time and frequency span which provides the Uncertainty Principle for the classical Fourier domain, there has not been till date an Uncertainty Principle for the Fractional Fourier domain for a generalized class of finite energy signals. Though the lower bound for the product of time and Fractional Fourier span is derived for the real signals, a tighter lower bound for a general class of signals is of practical importance, especially for the analysis of signals containing chirps. We hence formulate a mathematical derivation that gives the lower bound of time and Fractional Fourier span product. The relation proves to be utmost importance in taking the Fractional Fourier Transform with adaptive time and Fractional span resolutions for a varied class of complex signals.

Keywords: Fractional Fourier Transform, uncertainty principle, Fractional Fourier Span, amplitude, phase.

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Authors: R.K.Tuli

Abstract:

In the present communication, we have studied different variations in the entropy measures in the different states of queueing processes. In case of steady state queuing process, it has been shown that as the arrival rate increases, the uncertainty increases whereas in the case of non-steady birth-death process, it is shown that the uncertainty varies differently. In this pattern, it first increases and attains its maximum value and then with the passage of time, it decreases and attains its minimum value.

Keywords: Entropy, Birth-death process, M/G/1 system, G/M/1system, Steady state, Non-steady state

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Authors: Mohammad N. Alanazi, David A. Gustafson

Abstract:

In this article, we introduce a new approach for analyzing UML designs to detect the inconsistencies between multiple state diagrams and sequence diagrams. The Super State Analysis (SSA) identifies the inconsistencies in super states, single step transitions, and sequences. Because SSA considers multiple UML state diagrams, it discovers inconsistencies that cannot be discovered when considering only a single UML state diagram. We have introduced a transition set that captures relationship information that is not specifiable in UML diagrams. The SSA model uses the transition set to link transitions of multiple state diagrams together. The analysis generates three different sets automatically. These sets are compared to the provided sets to detect the inconsistencies. SSA identifies five types of inconsistencies: impossible super states, unreachable super states, illegal transitions, missing transitions, and illegal sequences.

Keywords: Modeling Languages, Object-Oriented Analysis, Sequence Diagrams, Software Models, State Diagrams, UML.

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Authors: Daniel Stamate

Abstract:

The paper presents an approach for handling uncertain information in deductive databases using multivalued logics. Uncertainty means that database facts may be assigned logical values other than the conventional ones - true and false. The logical values represent various degrees of truth, which may be combined and propagated by applying the database rules. A corresponding multivalued database semantics is defined. We show that it extends successful conventional semantics as the well-founded semantics, and has a polynomial time data complexity.

Keywords: Reasoning under uncertainty, multivalued logics, deductive databases, logic programs, multivalued semantics.

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Authors: Ali Ameur Haj Salah, Tarek Garna, Hassani Messaoud

Abstract:

This paper attempts to define the validity domain of LSDP (Loop Shaping Design Procedure) controller system, by determining the suitable uncertainty region, so that linear system be stable. Indeed the LSDP controller cannot provide stability for any perturbed system. For this, we will use the gap metric tool that is introduced into the control literature for studying robustness properties of feedback systems with uncertainty. A 2nd order electric linear system example is given to define the validity domain of LSDP controller and effectiveness gap metric.

Keywords: LSDP, Gap metric, Robust Control.

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Authors: Nabilah Filzah Mohd Radzuan, Zalinda Othman, Azuraliza Abu Bakar, Abdul Razak Hamdan

Abstract:

Uncertain data is believed to be an important issue in building up a prediction model. The main objective in the time series uncertainty analysis is to formulate uncertain data in order to gain knowledge and fit low dimensional model prior to a prediction task. This paper discusses the performance of a number of techniques in dealing with uncertain data specifically those which solve uncertain data condition by minimizing the loss of compression properties.

Keywords: Compression properties, uncertainty, uncertain time series, mining technique, weather prediction.

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Authors: Hamed Afrasiab, Saeed Khodaygan

Abstract:

Prediction of machining process capability in the design stage plays a key role to reach the precision design and manufacturing of mechanical products. Inaccuracies in machining process lead to errors in position and orientation of machined features on the part, and strongly affect the process capability in the final quality of the product. In this paper, an efficient systematic approach is given to investigate the machining errors to predict the manufacturing errors of the parts and capability prediction of corresponding machining processes. A mathematical formulation of fixture locators modeling is presented to establish the relationship between the part errors and the related sources. Based on this method, the final machining errors of the part can be accurately estimated by relating them to the combined dimensional and geometric tolerances of the workpiece – fixture system. This method is developed for uncertainty analysis based on the Worst Case and statistical approaches. The application of the presented method is illustrated through presenting an example and the computational results are compared with the Monte Carlo simulation results.

Keywords: Process capability, machining error, dimensional and geometrical tolerances, uncertainty analysis.

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Authors: Madhukar Nagare, Pankaj Dutta

Abstract:

Inventory decisional environment of short life-cycle products is full of uncertainties arising from randomness and fuzziness of input parameters like customer demand requiring modeling under hybrid uncertainty. Prior inventory models incorporating fuzzy demand have unfortunately ignored stochastic variation of demand. This paper determines an unambiguous optimal order quantity from a set of n fuzzy observations in a newsvendor inventory setting in presence of fuzzy random variable demand capturing both fuzzy perception and randomness of customer demand. The stress of this paper is in providing solution procedure that attains optimality in two steps with demand information availability in linguistic phrases leading to fuzziness along with stochastic variation. The first step of solution procedure identifies and prefers one best fuzzy opinion out of all expert opinions and the second step determines optimal order quantity from the selected event that maximizes profit. The model and solution procedure is illustrated with a numerical example.

Keywords: Fuzzy expected value, Fuzzy random demand, Hybrid uncertainty, Optimal order quantity, Single-period inventory

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Authors: Samia Alblwi, Amani Ayad

Abstract:

Mutation testing is the art of generating syntactic variations of a base program and checking whether a candidate test suite can identify all the mutants that are not semantically equivalent to the base; this technique can be used to assess the quality of test suite. One of the main obstacles to the widespread use of mutation testing is cost, as even small programs (a few dozen lines of code) can give rise to a large number of mutants (up to hundreds); this has created an incentive to seek to reduce the number of mutants while preserving their collective effectiveness. Two criteria have been used to reduce the size of mutant sets: equivalence, which aims to partition the set of mutants into equivalence classes modulo semantic equivalence, and selecting one representative per class; and, subsumption, which aims to define a partial ordering among mutants that ranks mutants by effectiveness and seeks to select maximal elements in this ordering. In this paper, we analyze these two policies using analytical and empirical criteria.

Keywords: Mutation testing, mutant sets, mutant equivalence, mutant subsumption, mutant set minimization.

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Authors: Yasser F. Hassan, Marwa Abdeen, Mustafa Fahmy

Abstract:

In recent years multi-agent systems have emerged as one of the interesting architectures facilitating distributed collaboration and distributed problem solving. Each node (agent) of the network might pursue its own agenda, exploit its environment, develop its own problem solving strategy and establish required communication strategies. Within each node of the network, one could encounter a diversity of problem-solving approaches. Quite commonly the agents can realize their processing at the level of information granules that is the most suitable from their local points of view. Information granules can come at various levels of granularity. Each agent could exploit a certain formalism of information granulation engaging a machinery of fuzzy sets, interval analysis, rough sets, just to name a few dominant technologies of granular computing. Having this in mind, arises a fundamental issue of forming effective interaction linkages between the agents so that they fully broadcast their findings and benefit from interacting with others.

Keywords: Granular computing, rough sets, agents, traffic system.

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Authors: Rana Yousef, Khalil el Hindi

Abstract:

The behavior of Radial Basis Function (RBF) Networks greatly depends on how the center points of the basis functions are selected. In this work we investigate the use of instance reduction techniques, originally developed to reduce the storage requirements of instance based learners, for this purpose. Five Instance-Based Reduction Techniques were used to determine the set of center points, and RBF networks were trained using these sets of centers. The performance of the RBF networks is studied in terms of classification accuracy and training time. The results obtained were compared with two Radial Basis Function Networks: RBF networks that use all instances of the training set as center points (RBF-ALL) and Probabilistic Neural Networks (PNN). The former achieves high classification accuracies and the latter requires smaller training time. Results showed that RBF networks trained using sets of centers located by noise-filtering techniques (ALLKNN and ENN) rather than pure reduction techniques produce the best results in terms of classification accuracy. The results show that these networks require smaller training time than that of RBF-ALL and higher classification accuracy than that of PNN. Thus, using ALLKNN and ENN to select center points gives better combination of classification accuracy and training time. Our experiments also show that using the reduced sets to train the networks is beneficial especially in the presence of noise in the original training sets.

Keywords: Radial basis function networks, Instance-based reduction, PNN.

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Authors: B. Bagheri Nakhjavanlo, T. J. Ellis, P. Raoofi, J. Dehmeshki

Abstract:

This paper presents a customized deformable model for the segmentation of abdominal and thoracic aortic aneurysms in CTA datasets. An important challenge in reliably detecting aortic aneurysm is the need to overcome problems associated with intensity inhomogeneities and image noise. Level sets are part of an important class of methods that utilize partial differential equations (PDEs) and have been extensively applied in image segmentation. A Gaussian kernel function in the level set formulation, which extracts the local intensity information, aids the suppression of noise in the extracted regions of interest and then guides the motion of the evolving contour for the detection of weak boundaries. The speed of curve evolution has been significantly improved with a resulting decrease in segmentation time compared with previous implementations of level sets. The results indicate the method is more effective than other approaches in coping with intensity inhomogeneities.

Keywords: Abdominal and thoracic aortic aneurysms, intensityinhomogeneity, level sets, local fitting binary.

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Authors: Helene Le Cadre

Abstract:

Three service providers in competition, try to optimize their quality of service / content level and their service access price. But, they have to deal with uncertainty on the consumers- preferences. To reduce their uncertainty, they have the opportunity to buy information and to build alliances. We determine the Shapley value which is a fair way to allocate the grand coalition-s revenue between the service providers. Then, we identify the values of β (consumers- sensitivity coefficient to the quality of service / contents) for which allocating the grand coalition-s revenue using the Shapley value guarantees the system stability. For other values of β, we prove that it is possible for the regulator to impose a per-period interest rate maximizing the market coverage under equal allocation rules.

Keywords: Alliance, Shapley value, Stability, Repeated game, Interest rate.

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