Search results for: fuzzy multi-criteria decision making
Commenced in January 2007
Frequency: Monthly
Edition: International
Paper Count: 2809

Search results for: fuzzy multi-criteria decision making

1789 Mining Educational Data to Support Students’ Major Selection

Authors: Kunyanuth Kularbphettong, Cholticha Tongsiri

Abstract:

This paper aims to create the model for student in choosing an emphasized track of student majoring in computer science at Suan Sunandha Rajabhat University. The objective of this research is to develop the suggested system using data mining technique to analyze knowledge and conduct decision rules. Such relationships can be used to demonstrate the reasonableness of student choosing a track as well as to support his/her decision and the system is verified by experts in the field. The sampling is from student of computer science based on the system and the questionnaire to see the satisfaction. The system result is found to be satisfactory by both experts and student as well. 

Keywords: Data mining technique, the decision support system, knowledge and decision rules.

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1788 e Collaborative Decisions – a DSS for Academic Environment

Authors: C. Oprean, C. V. Kifor, S. C. Negulescu, C. Candea, L. Oprean, C. Oprean, S. Kifor

Abstract:

This paper presents an innovative approach within the area of Group Decision Support System (GDSS) by using tools based on intelligent agents. It introduces iGDSS, a software platform for decision support and collaboration and an application of this platform - eCollaborative Decisions - for academic environment, all these developed within a framework of a research project.

Keywords: Group Decision Support System, Managerial Academic Decisions, Computer Interaction.

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1787 MCOKE: Multi-Cluster Overlapping K-Means Extension Algorithm

Authors: Said Baadel, Fadi Thabtah, Joan Lu

Abstract:

Clustering involves the partitioning of n objects into k clusters. Many clustering algorithms use hard-partitioning techniques where each object is assigned to one cluster. In this paper we propose an overlapping algorithm MCOKE which allows objects to belong to one or more clusters. The algorithm is different from fuzzy clustering techniques because objects that overlap are assigned a membership value of 1 (one) as opposed to a fuzzy membership degree. The algorithm is also different from other overlapping algorithms that require a similarity threshold be defined a priori which can be difficult to determine by novice users.

Keywords: Data mining, k-means, MCOKE, overlapping.

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1786 Decision Maturity Framework: Introducing Maturity In Heuristic Search

Authors: Ayed Salman, Fawaz Al-Anzi, Aseel Al-Minayes

Abstract:

Heuristics-based search methodologies normally work on searching a problem space of possible solutions toward finding a “satisfactory" solution based on “hints" estimated from the problem-specific knowledge. Research communities use different types of methodologies. Unfortunately, most of the times, these hints are immature and can lead toward hindering these methodologies by a premature convergence. This is due to a decrease of diversity in search space that leads to a total implosion and ultimately fitness stagnation of the population. In this paper, a novel Decision Maturity framework (DMF) is introduced as a solution to this problem. The framework simply improves the decision on the direction of the search by materializing hints enough before using them. Ideas from this framework are injected into the particle swarm optimization methodology. Results were obtained under both static and dynamic environment. The results show that decision maturity prevents premature converges to a high degree.

Keywords: Heuristic Search, hints, Particle Swarm Optimization, Decision Maturity Framework.

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1785 Hybrid Intelligent Intrusion Detection System

Authors: Norbik Bashah, Idris Bharanidharan Shanmugam, Abdul Manan Ahmed

Abstract:

Intrusion Detection Systems are increasingly a key part of systems defense. Various approaches to Intrusion Detection are currently being used, but they are relatively ineffective. Artificial Intelligence plays a driving role in security services. This paper proposes a dynamic model Intelligent Intrusion Detection System, based on specific AI approach for intrusion detection. The techniques that are being investigated includes neural networks and fuzzy logic with network profiling, that uses simple data mining techniques to process the network data. The proposed system is a hybrid system that combines anomaly, misuse and host based detection. Simple Fuzzy rules allow us to construct if-then rules that reflect common ways of describing security attacks. For host based intrusion detection we use neural-networks along with self organizing maps. Suspicious intrusions can be traced back to its original source path and any traffic from that particular source will be redirected back to them in future. Both network traffic and system audit data are used as inputs for both.

Keywords: Intrusion Detection, Network Security, Data mining, Fuzzy Logic.

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1784 Feedrate Optimization for Ball-end milling of Sculptured Surfaces using Fuzzy Logic Controller

Authors: Njiri J. G., Ikua B. W., Nyakoe G. N.

Abstract:

Optimization of cutting parameters important in precision machining in regards to efficiency and surface integrity of the machined part. Usually productivity and precision in machining is limited by the forces emanating from the cutting process. Due to the inherent varying nature of the workpiece in terms of geometry and material composition, the peak cutting forces vary from point to point during machining process. In order to increase productivity without compromising on machining accuracy, it is important to control these cutting forces. In this paper a fuzzy logic control algorithm is developed that can be applied in the control of peak cutting forces in milling of spherical surfaces using ball end mills. The controller can adaptively vary the feedrate to maintain allowable cutting force on the tool. This control algorithm is implemented in a computer numerical control (CNC) machine. It has been demonstrated that the controller can provide stable machining and improve the performance of the CNC milling process by varying feedrate.

Keywords: Ball-end mill, feedrate, fuzzy logic controller, machining optimization, spherical surface.

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1783 Decision Tree for Competing Risks Survival Probability in Breast Cancer Study

Authors: N. A. Ibrahim, A. Kudus, I. Daud, M. R. Abu Bakar

Abstract:

Competing risks survival data that comprises of more than one type of event has been used in many applications, and one of these is in clinical study (e.g. in breast cancer study). The decision tree method can be extended to competing risks survival data by modifying the split function so as to accommodate two or more risks which might be dependent on each other. Recently, researchers have constructed some decision trees for recurrent survival time data using frailty and marginal modelling. We further extended the method for the case of competing risks. In this paper, we developed the decision tree method for competing risks survival time data based on proportional hazards for subdistribution of competing risks. In particular, we grow a tree by using deviance statistic. The application of breast cancer data is presented. Finally, to investigate the performance of the proposed method, simulation studies on identification of true group of observations were executed.

Keywords: Competing risks, Decision tree, Simulation, Subdistribution Proportional Hazard.

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1782 Soft-Sensor for Estimation of Gasoline Octane Number in Platforming Processes with Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Inference Systems (ANFIS)

Authors: Hamed.Vezvaei, Sepideh.Ordibeheshti, Mehdi.Ardjmand

Abstract:

Gasoline Octane Number is the standard measure of the anti-knock properties of a motor in platforming processes, that is one of the important unit operations for oil refineries and can be determined with online measurement or use CFR (Cooperative Fuel Research) engines. Online measurements of the Octane number can be done using direct octane number analyzers, that it is too expensive, so we have to find feasible analyzer, like ANFIS estimators. ANFIS is the systems that neural network incorporated in fuzzy systems, using data automatically by learning algorithms of NNs. ANFIS constructs an input-output mapping based both on human knowledge and on generated input-output data pairs. In this research, 31 industrial data sets are used (21 data for training and the rest of the data used for generalization). Results show that, according to this simulation, hybrid method training algorithm in ANFIS has good agreements between industrial data and simulated results.

Keywords: Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Inference Systems, GasolineOctane Number, Soft-sensor, Catalytic Naphtha Reforming

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1781 Matrix Converter Fed Brushless DC Motor Using Field Programmable Gate Array

Authors: P. Subha Karuvelam, M. Rajaram

Abstract:

Brushless DC motors (BLDC) are widely used in industrial areas. The BLDC motors are driven either by indirect ACAC converters or by direct AC-AC converters. Direct AC-AC converters i.e. matrix converters are used in this paper to drive the three phase BLDC motor and it eliminates the bulky DC link energy storage element. A matrix converter converts the AC power supply to an AC voltage of variable amplitude and variable frequency. A control technique is designed to generate the switching pulses for the three phase matrix converter. For the control of speed of the BLDC motor a separate PI controller and Fuzzy Logic Controller (FLC) are designed and a hysteresis current controller is also designed for the control of motor torque. The control schemes are designed and tested separately. The simulation results of both the schemes are compared and contrasted in this paper. The results show that the fuzzy logic control scheme outperforms the PI control scheme in terms of dynamic performance of the BLDC motor. Simulation results are validated with the experimental results.

Keywords: Fuzzy logic controller, matrix converter, permanent magnet brushless DC motor, PI controller.

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1780 Defuzzification of Periodic Membership Function on Circular Coordinates

Authors: Takashi Mitsuishi, Koji Saigusa

Abstract:

This paper presents circular polar coordinates transformation of periodic fuzzy membership function. The purpose is identification of domain of periodic membership functions in consequent part of IF-THEN rules. Proposed methods in this paper remove complicatedness concerning domain of periodic membership function from defuzzification in fuzzy approximate reasoning. Defuzzification on circular polar coordinates is also proposed.

Keywords: Defuzzification, periodic membership function, polar coordinates transformation.

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1779 Cooperative Multi Agent Soccer Robot Team

Authors: Vahid Rostami, Saeed Ebrahimijam, P.khajehpoor, P.Mirzaei, Mahdi Yousefiazar

Abstract:

This paper introduces our first efforts of developing a new team for RoboCup Middle Size Competition. In our robots we have applied omni directional based mobile system with omnidirectional vision system and fuzzy control algorithm to navigate robots. The control architecture of MRL middle-size robots is a three layered architecture, Planning, Sequencing, and Executing. It also uses Blackboard system to achieve coordination among agents. Moreover, the architecture should have minimum dependency on low level structure and have a uniform protocol to interact with real robot.

Keywords: Robocup, Soccer robots, Fuzzy controller, Multi agent.

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1778 Design and Analysis of Gauge R&R Studies: Making Decisions Based on ANOVA Method

Authors: Afrooz Moatari Kazerouni

Abstract:

In a competitive production environment, critical decision making are based on data resulted by random sampling of product units. Efficiency of these decisions depends on data quality and also their reliability scale. This point leads to the necessity of a reliable measurement system. Therefore, the conjecture process and analysing the errors contributes to a measurement system known as Measurement System Analysis (MSA). The aim of this research is on determining the necessity and assurance of extensive development in analysing measurement systems, particularly with the use of Repeatability and Reproducibility Gages (GR&R) to improve physical measurements. Nowadays in productive industries, repeatability and reproducibility gages released so well but they are not applicable as well as other measurement system analysis methods. To get familiar with this method and gain a feedback in improving measurement systems, this survey would be on “ANOVA" method as the most widespread way of calculating Repeatability and Reproducibility (R&R).

Keywords: Analysis of Variance (ANOVA), MeasurementSystem Analysis (MSA), Part-Operator interaction effect, Repeatability and Reproducibility.

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1777 Clinical Benefits of an Embedded Decision Support System in Anticoagulant Control

Authors: Tony Austin, Shanghua Sun, Nathan Lea, Steve Iliffe, Dipak Kalra, David Ingram, David Patterson

Abstract:

Computer-based decision support (CDSS) systems can deliver real patient care and increase chances of long-term survival in areas of chronic disease management prone to poor control. One such CDSS, for the management of warfarin, is described in this paper and the outcomes shown. Data is derived from the running system and show a performance consistently around 20% better than the applicable guidelines.

Keywords: "Decision Support", "Anticoagulant Control"

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1776 A Neuro-Automata Decision Support System for the Control of Late Blight in Tomato Crops

Authors: Gizelle K. Vianna, Gustavo S. Oliveira, Gabriel V. Cunha

Abstract:

The use of decision support systems in agriculture may help monitoring large fields of crops by automatically detecting the symptoms of foliage diseases. In our work, we designed and implemented a decision support system for small tomatoes producers. This work investigates ways to recognize the late blight disease from the analysis of digital images of tomatoes, using a pair of multilayer perceptron neural networks. The networks outputs are used to generate repainted tomato images in which the injuries on the plant are highlighted, and to calculate the damage level of each plant. Those levels are then used to construct a situation map of a farm where a cellular automata simulates the outbreak evolution over the fields. The simulator can test different pesticides actions, helping in the decision on when to start the spraying and in the analysis of losses and gains of each choice of action.

Keywords: Artificial neural networks, cellular automata, decision support system, pattern recognition.

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1775 Learning FCM by Tabu Search

Authors: Somayeh Alizadeh, Mehdi Ghazanfari, Mostafa Jafari, Salman Hooshmand

Abstract:

Fuzzy Cognitive Maps (FCMs) is a causal graph, which shows the relations between essential components in complex systems. Experts who are familiar with the system components and their relations can generate a related FCM. There is a big gap when human experts cannot produce FCM or even there is no expert to produce the related FCM. Therefore, a new mechanism must be used to bridge this gap. In this paper, a novel learning method is proposed to construct causal graph based on historical data and by using metaheuristic such Tabu Search (TS). The efficiency of the proposed method is shown via comparison of its results of some numerical examples with those of some other methods.

Keywords: Fuzzy Cognitive Map (FCM), Learning, Meta heuristic, Genetic Algorithm, Tabu search.

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1774 A Mixed Expert Evaluation System and Dynamic Interval-Valued Hesitant Fuzzy Selection Approach

Authors: Hossein Gitinavard, Mohammad Hossein Fazel Zarandi

Abstract:

In the last decades, concerns about the environmental issues lead to professional and academic efforts on green supplier selection problems. In this sake, one of the main issues in evaluating the green supplier selection problems, which could increase the uncertainty, is the preferences of the experts' judgments about the candidate green suppliers. Therefore, preparing an expert system to evaluate the problem based on the historical data and the experts' knowledge can be sensible. This study provides an expert evaluation system to assess the candidate green suppliers under selected criteria in a multi-period approach. In addition, a ranking approach under interval-valued hesitant fuzzy set (IVHFS) environment is proposed to select the most appropriate green supplier in planning horizon. In the proposed ranking approach, the IVHFS and the last aggregation approach are considered to margin the errors and to prevent data loss, respectively. Hence, a comparative analysis is provided based on an illustrative example to show the feasibility of the proposed approach.

Keywords: Green supplier selection, expert system, ranking approach, interval-valued hesitant fuzzy setting.

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1773 Machine Learning Techniques for Short-Term Rain Forecasting System in the Northeastern Part of Thailand

Authors: Lily Ingsrisawang, Supawadee Ingsriswang, Saisuda Somchit, Prasert Aungsuratana, Warawut Khantiyanan

Abstract:

This paper presents the methodology from machine learning approaches for short-term rain forecasting system. Decision Tree, Artificial Neural Network (ANN), and Support Vector Machine (SVM) were applied to develop classification and prediction models for rainfall forecasts. The goals of this presentation are to demonstrate (1) how feature selection can be used to identify the relationships between rainfall occurrences and other weather conditions and (2) what models can be developed and deployed for predicting the accurate rainfall estimates to support the decisions to launch the cloud seeding operations in the northeastern part of Thailand. Datasets collected during 2004-2006 from the Chalermprakiat Royal Rain Making Research Center at Hua Hin, Prachuap Khiri khan, the Chalermprakiat Royal Rain Making Research Center at Pimai, Nakhon Ratchasima and Thai Meteorological Department (TMD). A total of 179 records with 57 features was merged and matched by unique date. There are three main parts in this work. Firstly, a decision tree induction algorithm (C4.5) was used to classify the rain status into either rain or no-rain. The overall accuracy of classification tree achieves 94.41% with the five-fold cross validation. The C4.5 algorithm was also used to classify the rain amount into three classes as no-rain (0-0.1 mm.), few-rain (0.1- 10 mm.), and moderate-rain (>10 mm.) and the overall accuracy of classification tree achieves 62.57%. Secondly, an ANN was applied to predict the rainfall amount and the root mean square error (RMSE) were used to measure the training and testing errors of the ANN. It is found that the ANN yields a lower RMSE at 0.171 for daily rainfall estimates, when compared to next-day and next-2-day estimation. Thirdly, the ANN and SVM techniques were also used to classify the rain amount into three classes as no-rain, few-rain, and moderate-rain as above. The results achieved in 68.15% and 69.10% of overall accuracy of same-day prediction for the ANN and SVM models, respectively. The obtained results illustrated the comparison of the predictive power of different methods for rainfall estimation.

Keywords: Machine learning, decision tree, artificial neural network, support vector machine, root mean square error.

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1772 Civic E-Participation in Central and Eastern Europe: A Comparative Analysis

Authors: Izabela Kapsa

Abstract:

Civic participation is an important aspect of democracy. The contemporary model of democracy is based on citizens' participation in political decision-making (deliberative democracy, participatory democracy). This participation takes many forms of activities like display of slogans and symbols, voting, social consultations, political demonstrations, membership in political parties or organizing civil disobedience. The countries of Central and Eastern Europe after 1989 are characterized by great social, economic and political diversity. Civil society is also part of the process of democratization. Civil society, funded by the rule of law, civil rights, such as freedom of speech and association and private ownership, was to play a central role in the development of liberal democracy. Among the many interpretations of concepts, defining the concept of contemporary democracy, one can assume that the terms civil society and democracy, although different in meaning, nowadays overlap. In the post-communist countries, the process of shaping and maturing societies took place in the context of a struggle with a state governed by undemocratic power. State fraud or repudiation of the institution is a representative state, which in the past was the only way to manifest and defend its identity, but after the breakthrough became one of the main obstacles to the development of civil society. In Central and Eastern Europe, there are many obstacles to the development of civil society, for example, the elimination of economic poverty, the implementation of educational campaigns, consciousness-related obstacles, the formation of social capital and the deficit of social activity. Obviously, civil society does not only entail an electoral turnout but a broader participation in the decision-making process, which is impossible without direct and participative democratic institutions. This article considers such broad forms of civic participation and their characteristics in Central and Eastern Europe. The paper is attempts to analyze the functioning of electronic forms of civic participation in Central and Eastern European states. This is not accompanied by a referendum or a referendum initiative, and other forms of political participation, such as public consultations, participative budgets, or e-Government. However, this paper will broadly present electronic administration tools, the application of which results from both legal regulations and increasingly common practice in state and city management. In the comparative analysis, the experiences of post-communist bloc countries will be summed up to indicate the challenges and possible goals for further development of this form of citizen participation in the political process. The author argues that for to function efficiently and effectively, states need to involve their citizens in the political decision-making process, especially with the use of electronic tools.

Keywords: Central and Eastern Europe, e-participation, e-government, post-communism.

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1771 Analyzing Artificial Emotion in Game Characters Using Soft Computing

Authors: Musbah M. Aqel, P. K. Mahanti, Soumya Banerjee

Abstract:

This paper describes a simulation model for analyzing artificial emotion injected to design the game characters. Most of the game storyboard is interactive in nature and the virtual characters of the game are equipped with an individual personality and dynamic emotion value which is similar to real life emotion and behavior. The uncertainty in real expression, mood and behavior is also exhibited in game paradigm and this is focused in the present paper through a fuzzy logic based agent and storyboard. Subsequently, a pheromone distribution or labeling is presented mimicking the behavior of social insects.

Keywords: Artificial Emotion, Fuzzy logic, Game character, Pheromone label

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1770 Auto-Parking System via Intelligent Computation Intelligence

Authors: Y. J. Huang, C. H. Chang

Abstract:

In this paper, an intelligent automatic parking control method is proposed. First, the dynamical equation of the rear parking control is derived. Then a fuzzy logic control is proposed to perform the parking planning process. Further, a rear neural network is proposed for the steering control. Through the simulations and experiments, the intelligent auto-parking mode controllers have been shown to achieve the demanded goals with satisfactory control performance and to guarantee the system robustness under parametric variations and external disturbances. To improve some shortcomings and limitations in conventional parking mode control and further to reduce consumption time and prime cost.

Keywords: Auto-parking system, Fuzzy control, Neural network, Robust

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1769 A Fuzzy TOPSIS Based Model for Safety Risk Assessment of Operational Flight Data

Authors: N. Borjalilu, P. Rabiei, A. Enjoo

Abstract:

Flight Data Monitoring (FDM) program assists an operator in aviation industries to identify, quantify, assess and address operational safety risks, in order to improve safety of flight operations. FDM is a powerful tool for an aircraft operator integrated into the operator’s Safety Management System (SMS), allowing to detect, confirm, and assess safety issues and to check the effectiveness of corrective actions, associated with human errors. This article proposes a model for safety risk assessment level of flight data in a different aspect of event focus based on fuzzy set values. It permits to evaluate the operational safety level from the point of view of flight activities. The main advantages of this method are proposed qualitative safety analysis of flight data. This research applies the opinions of the aviation experts through a number of questionnaires Related to flight data in four categories of occurrence that can take place during an accident or an incident such as: Runway Excursions (RE), Controlled Flight Into Terrain (CFIT), Mid-Air Collision (MAC), Loss of Control in Flight (LOC-I). By weighting each one (by F-TOPSIS) and applying it to the number of risks of the event, the safety risk of each related events can be obtained.

Keywords: F-TOPSIS, fuzzy set, FDM, flight safety.

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1768 Fuzzy Logic Based Determination of Battery Charging Efficiency Applied to Hybrid Power System

Authors: Priyanka Paliwal, N. P. Patidar, R. K. Nema

Abstract:

Battery storage system is emerging as an essential component of hybrid power system based on renewable energy resources such as solar and wind in order to make these sources dispatchable. Accurate modeling of battery storage system is ssential in order to ensure optimal planning of hybrid power systems incorporating battery storage. Majority of the system planning studies involving battery storage assume battery charging efficiency to be constant. However a strong correlation exists between battery charging efficiency and battery state of charge. In this work a Fuzzy logic based model has been presented for determining battery charging efficiency relative to a particular SOC. In order to demonstrate the efficacy of proposed approach, reliability evaluation studies are carried out for a hypothetical autonomous hybrid power system located in Jaisalmer, Rajasthan, India. The impact of considering battery charging efficiency as a function of state of charge is compared against the assumption of fixed battery charging efficiency for three different configurations comprising of wind-storage, solar-storage and wind-solar-storage.

Keywords: Battery Storage, Charging efficiency, Fuzzy Logic, Hybrid Power System, Reliability

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1767 Application of Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Inference Systems Technique for Modeling of Postweld Heat Treatment Process of Pressure Vessel Steel ASTM A516 Grade 70

Authors: Omar Al Denali, Abdelaziz Badi

Abstract:

The ASTM A516 Grade 70 steel is a suitable material used for the fabrication of boiler pressure vessels working in moderate and lower temperature services, and it has good weldability and excellent notch toughness. The post-weld heat treatment (PWHT) or stress-relieving heat treatment has significant effects on avoiding the martensite transformation and resulting in high hardness, which can lead to cracking in the heat-affected zone (HAZ). An adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system (ANFIS) was implemented to predict the material tensile strength of PWHT experiments. The ANFIS models presented excellent predictions, and the comparison was carried out based on the mean absolute percentage error between the predicted values and the experimental values. The ANFIS model gave a Mean Absolute Percentage Error of 0.556%, which confirms the high accuracy of the model.

Keywords: Prediction, post-weld heat treatment, adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system, ANFIS, mean absolute percentage error.

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1766 Multi-objective Optimization with Fuzzy Based Ranking for TCSC Supplementary Controller to Improve Rotor Angle and Voltage Stability

Authors: S. Panda, S. C. Swain, A. K. Baliarsingh, A. K. Mohanty, C. Ardil

Abstract:

Many real-world optimization problems involve multiple conflicting objectives and the use of evolutionary algorithms to solve the problems has attracted much attention recently. This paper investigates the application of multi-objective optimization technique for the design of a Thyristor Controlled Series Compensator (TCSC)-based controller to enhance the performance of a power system. The design objective is to improve both rotor angle stability and system voltage profile. A Genetic Algorithm (GA) based solution technique is applied to generate a Pareto set of global optimal solutions to the given multi-objective optimisation problem. Further, a fuzzy-based membership value assignment method is employed to choose the best compromise solution from the obtained Pareto solution set. Simulation results are presented to show the effectiveness and robustness of the proposed approach.

Keywords: Multi-objective optimisation, thyristor controlled series compensator, power system stability, genetic algorithm, pareto solution set, fuzzy ranking.

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1765 Comparison of ANFIS and ANN for Estimation of Biochemical Oxygen Demand Parameter in Surface Water

Authors: S. Areerachakul

Abstract:

Nowadays, several techniques such as; Fuzzy Inference System (FIS) and Neural Network (NN) are employed for developing of the predictive models to estimate parameters of water quality. The main objective of this study is to compare between the predictive ability of the Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Inference System (ANFIS) model and Artificial Neural Network (ANN) model to estimate the Biochemical Oxygen Demand (BOD) on data from 11 sampling sites of Saen Saep canal in Bangkok, Thailand. The data is obtained from the Department of Drainage and Sewerage, Bangkok Metropolitan Administration, during 2004-2011. The five parameters of water quality namely Dissolved Oxygen (DO), Chemical Oxygen Demand (COD), Ammonia Nitrogen (NH3N), Nitrate Nitrogen (NO3N), and Total Coliform bacteria (T-coliform) are used as the input of the models. These water quality indices affect the biochemical oxygen demand. The experimental results indicate that the ANN model provides a higher correlation coefficient (R=0.73) and a lower root mean square error (RMSE=4.53) than the corresponding ANFIS model.

Keywords: adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system, artificial neural network, biochemical oxygen demand, surface water.

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1764 A Preliminary Study on the Suitability of Data Driven Approach for Continuous Water Level Modeling

Authors: Muhammad Aqil, Ichiro Kita, Moses Macalinao

Abstract:

Reliable water level forecasts are particularly important for warning against dangerous flood and inundation. The current study aims at investigating the suitability of the adaptive network based fuzzy inference system for continuous water level modeling. A hybrid learning algorithm, which combines the least square method and the back propagation algorithm, is used to identify the parameters of the network. For this study, water levels data are available for a hydrological year of 2002 with a sampling interval of 1-hour. The number of antecedent water level that should be included in the input variables is determined by two statistical methods, i.e. autocorrelation function and partial autocorrelation function between the variables. Forecasting was done for 1-hour until 12-hour ahead in order to compare the models generalization at higher horizons. The results demonstrate that the adaptive networkbased fuzzy inference system model can be applied successfully and provide high accuracy and reliability for river water level estimation. In general, the adaptive network-based fuzzy inference system provides accurate and reliable water level prediction for 1-hour ahead where the MAPE=1.15% and correlation=0.98 was achieved. Up to 12-hour ahead prediction, the model still shows relatively good performance where the error of prediction resulted was less than 9.65%. The information gathered from the preliminary results provide a useful guidance or reference for flood early warning system design in which the magnitude and the timing of a potential extreme flood are indicated.

Keywords: Neural Network, Fuzzy, River, Forecasting

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1763 Stock Characteristics and Herding Formation: Evidence from the United States Equity Market

Authors: Chih-Hsiang Chang, Fang-Jyun Su

Abstract:

This paper explores whether stock characteristics influence the herding formation among investors in the US equity market. To extend the research scope of the existing literature, this paper further examines the role that stock risk characteristics play in the US equity market, and the way they influence investors’ decision-making. First, empirical results show that whether general stocks or high-risk stocks, there are no herding behaviors among the investors in the US equity market during the whole research period or during four great events. Moreover, stock characteristics have great influence on investors’ trading decisions. Finally, there is a bidirectional lead-lag relationship of the herding formation between high-risk stocks and low-risk stocks, but the influence of high-risk stocks on the low-risk stocks is stronger than that of low-risk stocks on the high-risk stocks.

Keywords: Stock characteristics, herding formation, investment decision, US equity market, lead-lag relationship.

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1762 Variable Guard Channels for Efficient Traffic Management

Authors: G. M. Mir, N. A. Shah, Moinuddin

Abstract:

Guard channels improve the probability of successful handoffs by reserving a number of channels exclusively for handoffs. This concept has the risk of underutilization of radio spectrum due to the fact that fewer channels are granted to originating calls even if these guard channels are not always used, when originating calls are starving for the want of channels. The penalty is the reduction of total carried traffic. The optimum number of guard channels can help reduce this problem. This paper presents fuzzy logic based guard channel scheme wherein guard channels are reorganized on the basis of traffic density, so that guard channels are provided on need basis. This will help in incorporating more originating calls and hence high throughput of the radio spectrum

Keywords: Free channels, fuzzy logic, guard channels, Handoff

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1761 Identification of Nonlinear Predictor and Simulator Models of a Cement Rotary Kiln by Locally Linear Neuro-Fuzzy Technique

Authors: Masoud Sadeghian, Alireza Fatehi

Abstract:

One of the most important parts of a cement factory is the cement rotary kiln which plays a key role in quality and quantity of produced cement. In this part, the physical exertion and bilateral movement of air and materials, together with chemical reactions take place. Thus, this system has immensely complex and nonlinear dynamic equations. These equations have not worked out yet. Only in exceptional case; however, a large number of the involved parameter were crossed out and an approximation model was presented instead. This issue caused many problems for designing a cement rotary kiln controller. In this paper, we presented nonlinear predictor and simulator models for a real cement rotary kiln by using nonlinear identification technique on the Locally Linear Neuro- Fuzzy (LLNF) model. For the first time, a simulator model as well as a predictor one with a precise fifteen minute prediction horizon for a cement rotary kiln is presented. These models are trained by LOLIMOT algorithm which is an incremental tree-structure algorithm. At the end, the characteristics of these models are expressed. Furthermore, we presented the pros and cons of these models. The data collected from White Saveh Cement Company is used for modeling.

Keywords: Cement rotary kiln, nonlinear identification, Locally Linear Neuro-Fuzzy model.

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1760 An Application of the Data Mining Methods with Decision Rule

Authors: Xun Ge, Jianhua Gong

Abstract:

 

ankings for output of Chinese main agricultural commodity in the world for 1978, 1980, 1990, 2000, 2006, 2007 and 2008 have been released in United Nations FAO Database. Unfortunately, where the ranking of output of Chinese cotton lint in the world for 2008 was missed. This paper uses sequential data mining methods with decision rules filling this gap. This new data mining method will be help to give a further improvement for United Nations FAO Database.

Keywords: Ranking, output of the main agricultural commodity, gross domestic product, decision table, information system, data mining, decision rule

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