Search results for: risk factors

Authors: Sevilay Konya, Sadife Güngör, Zeynep Karaçor

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Turkish economy is occurred depending on different factors from time to time and the banking crises of different magnitudes. Foremost among the factors which hinder the development of countries and societies- crises in the country's economy. Countries' economic growth rates affect inflation, unemployment and external trade. In this study, effect of November 2000, February 2001 and 2008 banking crisis on Turkey's economy and banking crisis will be examined and announced as conceptual. In this context, this study is investigates Turkey's GDP, inflation, unemployment and foreign trade figures. Turkey's economy affected have been identified from 2000 November 2001 February and 2008 banking crisis.

Keywords: Banking crises, Turkey’s economy, economic effects, Turkey.

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Authors: Huseyin Cetin, Halil Akmese, Sercan Aras, Vahit Aytekin

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Economic crisis, terrorism, global crisis and the relations between countries are the factors affecting tourism industry and tourism industry is vulnerable against these factors. In our study, there are two dimensions about Russian crisis. The crisis between Russia and Ukraine and decreased oil prices in global market have been entailed Russian economic crisis. This crisis has induced that the ruble, Russian currency, has depreciated against American dollars and consequently the purchasing power of Russian has weakened. This is the first dimension of our study. Second dimension is a political crisis between Turkey and Russia owing to the fact that the Russian Warcraft was brought down by Turkish army. The aim of this study is to explain the impact of the consequences of Russian crisis on Turkish tourism industry. The study has been limited only Antalya province.

Keywords: Economic crisis, Turkey-Russian crisis, Turkey's tourism industry, tourism in Turkey.

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Authors: Samah Jawad Jabari

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Water is the most important and valuable resource not only for human life but also for all living things on the planet. The water supply utilities should fulfill the water requirement quantitatively and qualitatively. Drinking water systems are exposed to both natural (hurricanes and flood) and manmade hazards (risks) that are common in Palestine. Non-Revenue Water (NRW) is a manmade risk which remains a major concern in Palestine, as the NRW levels are estimated to be at a high level. In this research, Hebron city water distribution network was taken as a case study to estimate and audit the NRW levels. The research also investigated the state of the existing water distribution system in the study area by investigating the water losses and obtained more information on NRW prevention and management practices. Data and information have been collected from the Palestinian Water Authority (PWA) and Hebron Municipality (HM) archive. In addition to that, a questionnaire has been designed and administered by the researcher in order to collect the necessary data for water auditing. The questionnaire also assessed the views of stakeholder in PWA and HM (staff) on the current status of the NRW in the Hebron water distribution system. The important result obtained by this research shows that NRW in Hebron city was high and in excess of 30%. The main factors that contribute to NRW were the inaccuracies in billing volumes, unauthorized consumption, and the method of estimating consumptions through faulty meters. Policy for NRW reduction is available in Palestine; however, it is clear that the number of qualified staff available to carry out the activities related to leak detection is low, and that there is a lack of appropriate technologies to reduce water losses and undertake sufficient system maintenance, which needs to be improved to enhance the performance of the network and decrease the level of NRW losses.

Keywords: Non-revenue water, water auditing, leak detection, water meters.

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Authors: Magdi M. E. Zumrawi

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It is quite essential to investigate the causes of pavement deterioration in order to select the proper maintenance technique. The objective of this study was to identify factors cause deterioration of recently constructed roads in Khartoum state. A comprehensive literature concerning the factors of road deterioration, common road defects and their causes were reviewed. Three major road projects with different deterioration reasons were selected for this study. The investigation involved field survey and laboratory testing on those projects to examine the existing pavement conditions. The results revealed that the roads investigated experienced severe failures in the forms of cracks, potholes, and rutting in the wheel path. The causes of those failures were found mainly linked to poor drainage, traffic overloading, expansive subgrade soils, and the use of low quality materials in construction. Based on the results, recommendations were provided to help highway engineers in selecting the most effective repair techniques for specific kinds of distresses.

Keywords: Pavement, deterioration, causes, failures.

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Authors: S.M.Hosseinalipour, H.Aghakhani

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Considering the numerous applications of the study of the flow due to leakage in a buried pipe in unsaturated porous media, finding a proper model to explain the influence of the effective factors is of great importance.There are various important factors involved in this type of flow such as: pipe leakage size and location, burial depth, the degree of the saturation of the surrounding porous medium, characteristics of the porous medium, fluid type and pressure of the upstream.In this study, the flow through unsaturated porous media due to leakage of a buried pipe for up and down leakage location is studied experimentally and numerically and their results are compared. Study results show that Darcy equation together with BCM method (for calculating the relative permeability) have suitable ability for predicting the flow due to leakage of buried pipes in unsaturated porous media.

Keywords: Buried, Leaking pipe, Porous media, Unsaturated

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Authors: Saratu Yusuf Ilu, Mumtaz B. Mustafa, Siti Salwah Salim, Mehdi Malekzadeh

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Children today use computer based application in various activities especially for learning and education. Many of these tools and application such as the Computer Aided Pronunciation Training (CAPT) systems enable children to explore and experience them with little supervision from the adults. In order for these tools and application to have maximum effect on the children’s learning and education, it must be attractive to the children to use them. This could be achieved with the proper user interface (UI) design. As children grow, so do their ability, taste and preferences. They interact differently with these applications as they grow older. This study reviews several articles on how age factors influence the UI design. The review focuses on age related abilities such as cognitive, literacy, concentration and feedback requirement. We have also evaluated few of existing CAPT systems and determine the influence of age-based factors on the interface design.

Keywords: Children, age-based interaction, learning application, age-based UI.

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Authors: A. R. Ommani, M. Chizari

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The purpose of the study reported here was designing Information Dissemination System (IDS) based E-learning in agricultural of Iran. A questionnaire was developed to designing Information Dissemination System. The questionnaire was distributed to 96 extension agents who work for Management of Extension and Farming System of Khuzestan province of Iran. Data collected were analyzed using the Statistical Package for the Social Sciences (SPSS). Appropriate statistical procedures for description (frequencies, percent, means, and standard deviations) were used. In this study there was a significant relationship between the age , IT skill and knowledge, years of extension work, the extend of information seeking motivation, level of job satisfaction and level of education with use of information technology by extension agent. According to extension agents five factors were ranked respectively as five top essential items to designing Information Dissemination System (IDS) based E-learning in agricultural of Iran. These factors include: 1) Establish communication between farmers, coordinators (extension agents), agricultural experts, research centers, and community by information technology. 2) The communication between all should be mutual. 3) The information must be based farmers need. 4) Internet used as a facility to transfer the advanced agricultural information to the farming community. 5) Farmers can be illiterate and speak a local and they are not expected to use the system directly. Knowledge produced by the agricultural scientist must be transformed in to computer understandable presentation. To designing Information Dissemination System, electronic communication, in the agricultural society and rural areas must be developed. This communication must be mutual between all factors.

Keywords: E-learning, information dissemination system, information technology.

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Authors: Fathi Taibi

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The abnormal increase in the number of applications available for download in Android markets is a good indication that they are being reused. However, little is known about their real reusability potential. A considerable amount of these applications is reported as having a poor quality or being malicious. Hence, in this paper, an approach to measure the reusability potential of classes in Android applications is proposed. The approach is not meant specifically for this particular type of applications. Rather, it is intended for Object-Oriented (OO) software systems in general and aims also to provide means to discard the classes of low quality and defect prone applications from being reused directly through inheritance and instantiation. An empirical investigation is conducted to measure and rank the reusability potential of the classes of randomly selected Android applications. The results obtained are thoroughly analyzed in order to understand the extent of this potential and the factors influencing it.

Keywords: Reusability, Software Quality Factors, Software Metrics, Empirical Investigation, Object-Oriented Software, Android Applications.

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Authors: Abdulkadir Abu Lawal

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The study was carried out to establish the probability density function of some selected building construction projects of similar complexity delivered using Bill of Quantities (BQ) and Lump Sum (LS) forms of contract, and to draw a reliability scenario for each form of contract. 30 of such delivered projects are analyzed for each of the contract forms using Weibull Analysis, and their Weibull functions (α, and β) are determined based on their completion times. For the BQ form of contract delivered projects, α is calculated as 1.6737E20 and β as + 0.0115 and for the LS form, α is found to be 5.6556E03 and β is determined as + 0.4535. Using these values, respective probability density functions are calculated and plotted, as handy tool for risk analysis of future projects of similar characteristics. By input of variables from other projects, decision making processes can be made for a whole project or its components using EVM Analysis in project evaluation and review techniques. This framework, as a quantitative approach, depends on the assumption of normality in projects completion time, it can help greatly in determining the completion time probability for veritable projects using any of the contract forms under consideration. Projects aspects that are not amenable to measurement, on the other hand, can be analyzed using fuzzy sets and fuzzy logic. This scenario can be drawn for different types of building construction projects, and using different suitable forms of contract in projects delivery.

Keywords: Building construction, Projects, Forms of contract, Probability density function, Reliability scenario.

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Authors: Farid Ezanee Mohamed Ghazali

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The Malaysia Highway Authority (MHA) was established by the Government in 1980 for the purpose of designing, constructing and maintaining toll highways in Malaysia that include the North-South Expressway and the Penang Bridge, which were procured using the publicly-funded traditional procurement. However following a recession in the mid 80-s, the operations of these tolledhighways had been privatized to ensure that their operational services continue through private financing as a result of long-term concession agreement concurred between the Malaysian Government and private operators. The change in the contract strategy for highway projects in Malaysia would have a great tendency to dictate a significant risk exposure towards the key parties involved, particularly the Malaysian Government as project principal, unless operational risks are clearly identified and managed via appropriate mitigation measures prior to a contract signing. This research identifies potential operational risks that have a possibility to occur in highway projects in Malaysia from the perspective of public sector clients. Since this research focuses on the operational risks for highway projects in Malaysia, the initial results acquired from literature review on the operational risks of highway projects in some Asian countries are then justified by a number of key individuals from the MHA through interviews. As a result, among key operational risks that have possibility to occur in the highway projects in Malaysia include initial toll-tariff decided by the Government, traffic congestion, change of road network and overloaded freight transportation, which could cause damage to the road surface and hence affecting the operation of a particular highway.

Keywords: Malaysia, operating highway project, operational risk.

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Authors: R. Ferdous

Abstract:

Power, responsibility sharing, and democratic decision-making are the central ethos to co-management. It is assumed that involving local community in the decision-making process can create a sense of ownership and responsibility of that community and motivate the community towards collective action. But this paper demonstrated that the process to involve local community is not simple and straightforward as it is influenced by structural aspects, power relations among the actors, and social embedded institutions. These factors shape the process in that way who will participate, how they will participate and how the local community maneuvers their agency in the decision-making process. To grasp the complexities that materialize in the process of participation and to understand the inclusionary and exclusionary nature of participation, this paper examines the subjective understanding of different stakeholders concerning participation and furthermore observes the enabling or constraining factors that affect the community to exercise their agency.

Keywords: Participation, social embeddedness, power, structure.

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Authors: Isaac Kofi Mensah, Jianing Mi, Cheng Feng

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Electronic government is the application of Information and Communication Technologies (ICTs) by the government to improve public service delivery to citizens and businesses. The purpose of this study is to investigate factors influencing the adoption and use of e-government services from different nationalities perspectives. The Technology Acceptance Model (TAM) will be used as the theoretical framework for the study. A questionnaire would be developed and administered to 500 potential respondents who are students from different nationalities in China. Predictors such as perceived usefulness, perceived ease of use, computer self-efficacy, trust in both the internet and government, social influence and perceived service quality would be examined with regard to their impact on the intention to use e-government services. This research is currently at the design and implementation stage. The completion of this study will provide useful insights into understanding factors impacting the decision to use e-government services from a cross and multi nationalities perspectives.

Keywords: Different nationalities, e-government, e-government services, technology acceptance model.

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Authors: Haytham Yassine

Abstract:

This article mainly aims to detect and understand how money laundering activities are executed by transport of cash, identifying the underlying factors and separating legitimate from illegitimate usage of cash and how it is being used. This research provides academics with additional literature and provides bank supervisors and practitioners with a better understanding of sources and uses of cash in criminal activities and how cash is used in the laundering mechanism. Data are gathered through survey in the Middle East and North Africa region and review of the available research. The results of the analysis will help distinguish the factors affecting preference for cash rather other payment instruments in the region, identify what causes the tendency to launder illegal proceeds through cash transportation and how illegal cash is being laundered and moved. On the other hand, this paper sheds the light on major cash generating criminal activities, its sources and main destinations.

Keywords: Illegitimate activities, cash, money laundering, terrorism financing.

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Authors: Ch.V.Rama Rao, Gowthami., Harsha., Rajkumar., M.B.Rama Murthy, K.Srinivasa Rao, K.AnithaSheela

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This paper presents a new method for estimating the nonstationary noise power spectral density given a noisy signal. The method is based on averaging the noisy speech power spectrum using time and frequency dependent smoothing factors. These factors are adjusted based on signal-presence probability in individual frequency bins. Signal presence is determined by computing the ratio of the noisy speech power spectrum to its local minimum, which is updated continuously by averaging past values of the noisy speech power spectra with a look-ahead factor. This method adapts very quickly to highly non-stationary noise environments. The proposed method achieves significant improvements over a system that uses voice activity detector (VAD) in noise estimation.

Keywords: Noise estimation, Non-stationary noise, Speechenhancement.

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Authors: G. Schuh, T. Potente, D. Kupke, S. Ivanescu

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As German companies roll out their standardized production systems to offshore manufacturing plants, they face the challenge of implementing them in different cultural environments. Studies show that the local adaptation is one of the key factors for a successful implementation. Thus the question arises of where the line between standardization and adaptation can be drawn. To answer this question the influence of culture on production systems is analysed in this paper. The culturally contingent components of production systems are identified. Also the contingency factors are classified according to their impact on the necessary adaptation changes and implementation effort. Culturally specific decision making, coordination, communication and motivation patterns require one-time changes in organizational and process design. The attitude towards rules requires more intense coaching and controlling. Lastly a framework is developed to depict standardization and adaption needs when transplanting production systems into different cultural environments.

Keywords: Culture, influence of national culture on production systems, lean production, production systems.

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Authors: Abimbola Motunrayo Folami, Ibironke Titilayo Enitan, Feroz Mohomed Swalaha

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Water is a vital resource that is important in ensuring the growth and development of any country. To sustain the basic human needs and the demands for agriculture, industry, conservational and ecosystem, enough quality and quantity water is needed. Contamination of water resources is now a global and public health concern. Hence, this study assessed the water quality of Ndawuse River by measuring the physicochemical parameters and heavy metals concentrations of the river using standard methods. In total, 16 surface water samples were obtained from five locations along the river, from upstream to downstream as well as samples from the dumpsite. The results obtained were compared with the standard limits set by both the World Health Organization and the Federal Environmental Protection Agency for domestic purposes. The results of the measured parameters indicated that biological oxygen demand (85.88 mg/L), turbidity (44.51 NTU), Iron (0.014 - 3.511 mg /L) and chromium (0.078 - 0.14 mg /L) were all above the standard limits. The results further showed that the quality of surface water is being significantly affected by human activities around the Ndawuse River which could pose an adverse health risk to several communities that rely on this river as their primary source of water. Therefore, there is a need for strict enforcement of environmental laws to protect the aquatic ecosystem and to avoid long term cumulative exposure risk that heavy metals may pose on human health.

Keywords: Abuja, contaminants, heavy metals, Ndawuse River, Nigeria, surface water.

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Authors: Fatma Didin Sonmez

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This survey of recent literature examines the link between growth and poverty. It is widely accepted that economic growth is a necessary condition for sustainable poverty reduction. But it is the fact that the economic growth of some countries has been pro-poor while others not. Some factors such as labor market, policies and demographic factors may lead to a weak relationship between economic performance and poverty rate. In this sense pro-growth policies should be pro-poor to increase the poverty alleviation effects of the growth. The purpose of this study is to review the recent studies on the effects of macroeconomic policies on poverty and inequality and to review the poverty analyses which examine the relationship between growth, poverty and inequality. Also this study provides some facts about the relationship between economic growth, inequality and poverty from Turkey. Keywordseconomic growth, inequality, macroeconomic policy, poverty

Keywords: economic growth, inequality, macroeconomic policy, poverty

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Authors: M. Baghdasaryan, A. Sukiasyan

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An algorithm for estimating the stable operation conditions of the synchronous motor of the ore mill electric drive is proposed. The stable operation conditions of the synchronous motor are revealed, taking into account the estimation of the q angle change and the technological factors. The stability condition obtained allows to ensure the stable operation of the motor in the synchronous mode, taking into account the nonlinear character of the mill loading. The developed algorithm gives an opportunity to present the undesirable phenomena, arising in the electric drive system. The obtained stability condition can be successfully applied for the optimal control of the electromechanical system of the mill.

Keywords: Electric drive, synchronous motor, ore mill, stability, technological factors.

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Authors: Arunroong Wongkungwan

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This study aimed to investigate the influence of selected antecedents, which were tourists’ satisfaction towards attractions in Bangkok, perceived value of the attractions, feelings of engagement with the attractions, acquaintance with the attractions, push factors, pull factors and motivation to seek novelty, on foreign tourist’s loyalty towards tourist attractions in Bangkok. By using multi stage sampling technique, 400 international tourists were sampled. After that, Semi Structural Equation Model was utilized in the analysis stage by LISREL. The Semi Structural Equation Model of the selected antecedents of tourist’s loyalty attractions had a correlation with the empirical data through the following statistical descriptions: Chi- square = 3.43, df = 4, P- value = 0.48893; RMSEA = 0.000; CFI = 1.00; CN = 1539.75; RMR = 0.0022; GFI = 1.00 and AGFI = 0.98. The findings indicated that all antecedents were able together to predict the loyalty of the foreign tourists who visited Bangkok at 73 percent.

Keywords: Antecedents, Loyalty, Foreign Tourists, Tourist Attractions, Bangkok.

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Authors: A. Sivakumar, S. S. Darun Prakash, P. Navaneethakrishnan

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In and around Erode District, it is estimated that more than 1250 chemical and allied textile processing fabric industries are affected, partially closed and shut off for various reasons such as poor management, poor supplier performance, lack of planning for productivity, fluctuation of output, poor investment, waste analysis, labor problems, capital/labor ratio, accumulation of stocks, poor maintenance of resources, deficiencies in the quality of fabric, low capacity utilization, age of plant and equipment, high investment and input but low throughput, poor research and development, lack of energy, workers’ fear of loss of jobs, work force mix and work ethic. The main objective of this work is to analyze the existing conditions in textile fabric sector, validate the break even of Total Productivity (TP), analyze, design and implement fuzzy sets and mathematical programming for improvement of productivity and quality dimensions in the fabric processing industry. It needs to be compatible with the reality of textile and fabric processing industries. The highly risk events from productivity and quality dimension were found by fuzzy systems and results are wrapped up among the textile fabric processing industry.

Keywords: Break Even Point, Fuzzy Crisp Data, Fuzzy Sets, Productivity, Productivity Cycle, Total Productive Maintenance.

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Authors: R. Behmanesh, I. Rahimi

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recurrent neural network (RNN) is an efficient tool for modeling production control process as well as modeling services. In this paper one RNN was combined with regression model and were employed in order to be checked whether the obtained data by the model in comparison with actual data, are valid for variable process control chart. Therefore, one maintenance process in workshop of Esfahan Oil Refining Co. (EORC) was taken for illustration of models. First, the regression was made for predicting the response time of process based upon determined factors, and then the error between actual and predicted response time as output and also the same factors as input were used in RNN. Finally, according to predicted data from combined model, it is scrutinized for test values in statistical process control whether forecasting efficiency is acceptable. Meanwhile, in training process of RNN, design of experiments was set so as to optimize the RNN.

Keywords: RNN, DOE, regression, control chart.

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Authors: Ali Jahanfar, Brajesh Dubey, Bahram Gharabaghi, Saber Bayat Movahed

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Ever increasing population growth of major urban centers and environmental challenges in siting new landfills have resulted in a growing trend in design of mega-landfills some with extraordinary heights and dangerously steep slopes. Landfill failure mobility risk analysis is one of the most uncertain types of dynamic rheology models due to very large inherent variabilities in the heterogeneous solid waste material shear strength properties. The waste flow of three historic dumpsite and two landfill failures were back-analyzed using run-out modeling with DAN-W model. The travel distances of the waste flow during landfill failures were calculated approach by taking into account variability in material shear strength properties. The probability distribution function for shear strength properties of the waste material were grouped into four major classed based on waste material compaction (landfills versus dumpsites) and composition (high versus low quantity) of high shear strength waste materials such as wood, metal, plastic, paper and cardboard in the waste. This paper presents a probabilistic method for estimation of the spatial extent of waste avalanches, after a potential landfill failure, to create maps of vulnerability scores to inform property owners and residents of the level of the risk.

Keywords: Landfill failure, waste flow, Voellmy rheology, friction coefficient, waste compaction and type.

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Authors: M. Byzedi, B. Saghafian

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Droughts are complex, natural hazards that, to a varying degree, affect some parts of the world every year. The range of drought impacts is related to drought occurring in different stages of the hydrological cycle and usually different types of droughts, such as meteorological, agricultural, hydrological, and socioeconomical are distinguished. Streamflow drought was analyzed by the method of truncation level (at 70% level) on daily discharges measured in 54 hydrometric stations in southwestern Iran. Frequency analysis was carried out for annual maximum series (AMS) of drought deficit volume and duration series. Some factors including physiographic, climatic, geologic, and vegetation cover were studied as influential factors in the regional analysis. According to the results of factor analysis, six most effective factors were identified as area, rainfall from December to February, the percent of area with Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) <0.1, the percent of convex area, drainage density and the minimum of watershed elevation that explained 90.9% of variance. The homogenous regions were determined by cluster analysis and discriminate function analysis. Suitable multivariate regression models were evaluated for streamflow drought deficit volume with 2 years return period. The significance level of regression models was 0.01. The results showed that the watershed area is the most effective factor with high correlation with deficit volume. Also, drought duration was not a suitable drought index for regional analysis.

Keywords: Iran, Streamflow drought, truncation level method, regional analysis.

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Authors: K. Prakash Vel, Lif Miriam Hamouda

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Consumer behaviour analysis represents an important field of study in marketing. Particularly strategy development for marketing and communications will be more focused and effective when marketers have an understanding of the motivations, behaviour and psychology of consumers. While materialism has been found to be one of the important elements in consumer behaviour, compulsive consumption represents another aspect that has recently attracted more attention. This is because of the growing prevalence of dysfunctional buying that has raised concern in consumer societies. Present studies and analyses on origins and motivations of compulsive buying have mainly focused on either individual factors or groups of related factors and hence a need for a holistic view exists. This paper provides a comprehensive perspective on compulsive consumption and establishes relevant propositions keeping the family life cycle stages as a reference for the incidence of chronic consumer states and their influence on compulsive consumption.

Keywords: Chronic consumer states, compulsive consumption, family life cycle

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Authors: Mikhail V. Khachaturyan, Inga A. Koryagina, Eugenia V. Klicheva

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In modern conditions, scientific judgment of problems in developing mechanisms of value creation and risk management acquires special relevance. Formation of economic knowledge has resulted in the constant analysis of consumer behavior for all players from national and world markets. Effective mechanisms development of the demand analysis, crucial for consumer's characteristics of future production, and the risks connected with the development of this production are the main objectives of control systems in modern conditions. The modern period of economic development is characterized by a high level of globalization of business and rigidity of competition. At the same time, the considerable share of new products and services costs has a non-material intellectual nature. The most successful in Russia is the contemporary development of small innovative firms. Such firms, through their unique technologies and new approaches to process management, which form the basis of their intellectual capital, can show flexibility and succeed in the market. As a rule, such enterprises should have very variable structure excluding the tough scheme of submission and demanding essentially new incentives for inclusion of personnel in innovative activity. Realization of similar structures, as well as a new approach to management, can be constructed based on value-oriented management which is directed to gradual change of consciousness of personnel and formation from groups of adherents included in the solution of the general innovative tasks. At the same time, valuable changes can gradually capture not only innovative firm staff, but also the structure of its corporate partners. Introduction of new technologies is the significant factor contributing to the development of new valuable imperatives and acceleration of the changing values systems of the organization. It relates to the fact that new technologies change the internal environment of the organization in a way that the old system of values becomes inefficient in new conditions. Introduction of new technologies often demands change in the structure of employee’s interaction and training in their new principles of work. During the introduction of new technologies and the accompanying change in the value system, the structure of the management of the values of the organization is changing. This is due to the need to attract more staff to justify and consolidate the new value system and bring their view into the motivational potential of the new value system of the organization.

Keywords: Value, risk, creation, problems, organization.

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Authors: Achim Washington, Reece Clothier, Jose Silva

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System Safety Regulations (SSR) are a central component to the airworthiness certification of Unmanned Aircraft Systems (UAS). There is significant debate on the setting of appropriate SSR for UAS. Putting this debate aside, the challenge lies in how to apply the system safety process to UAS, which lacks the data and operational heritage of conventionally piloted aircraft. The limited knowledge and lack of operational data result in uncertainty in the system safety assessment of UAS. This uncertainty can lead to incorrect compliance findings and the potential certification and operation of UAS that do not meet minimum safety performance requirements. The existing system safety assessment and compliance processes, as used for conventional piloted aviation, do not adequately account for the uncertainty, limiting the suitability of its application to UAS. This paper discusses the challenges of undertaking system safety assessments for UAS and presents current and envisaged research towards addressing these challenges. It aims to highlight the main advantages associated with adopting a risk based framework to the System Safety Performance Requirement (SSPR) compliance process that is capable of taking the uncertainty associated with each of the outputs of the system safety assessment process into consideration. Based on this study, it is made clear that developing a framework tailored to UAS, would allow for a more rational, transparent and systematic approach to decision making. This would reduce the need for conservative assumptions and take the risk posed by each UAS into consideration while determining its state of compliance to the SSR.

Keywords: Part 1309 regulations, unmanned aircraft systems, system safety, uncertainty.

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Authors: Xuan Sun, Mingbo Tong

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To understand the factors which affect impact damage on composite structures, particularly the effects of impact position and ribs. In this paper, a finite element model (FEM) of low-velocity impact damage on the composite structure was established via the nonlinear finite element method, combined with the user-defined materials subroutine (VUMAT) of the ABAQUS software. The structural elements chosen for the investigation comprised a series of stiffened composite panels, representative of real aircraft structure. By impacting the panels at different positions relative to the ribs, the effect of relative position of ribs was found out. Then the simulation results and the experiments data were compared. Finally, the factors which affect impact damage on the structures were discussed. The paper was helpful for the design of stiffened composite structures.

Keywords: Stiffened, Low-velocity, Impact, Abaqus, Impact Energy.

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Authors: Oliver F. Shyr, Yu-Hsuan Hsiao, David E. Andersson

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Due to the call of global warming effects, city planners aim at actions for reducing carbon emission. One of the approaches is to promote the usage of public transportation system toward the transit-oriented-development. For example, rapid transit system in Taipei city and Kaohsiung city are opening. However, until November 2008 the average daily patronage counted only 113,774 passengers at Kaohsiung MRT systems, much less than which was expected. Now the crucial questions: how the public transport competes with private transport? And more importantly, what factors would enhance the use of public transport? To give the answers to those questions, our study first applied regression to analyze the factors attracting people to use public transport around cities in the world. It is shown in our study that the number of MRT stations, city population, cost of living, transit fare, density, gasoline price, and scooter being a major mode of transport are the major factors. Subsequently, our study identified successful and unsuccessful cities in regard of the public transport usage based on the diagnosis of regression residuals. Finally, by comparing transportation strategies adopted by those successful cities, our conclusion stated that Kaohsiung City could apply strategies such as increasing parking fees, reducing parking spaces in downtown area, and reducing transfer time by providing more bus services and public bikes to promote the usage of public transport.

Keywords: Public Transit System, Comparative Study, Transport Demand Management, Regression

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Authors: T. Banerjee, R. A. Christian

Abstract:

Three dimensional simulations are carried out to estimate the effect of wind direction, wind speed and geometry on the flow and dispersion of vehicular pollutant in a street canyon. The pollutant sources are motor vehicles passing between the two buildings. Suitable emission factors for petrol and diesel vehicles at varying vehicle speed are used for the estimation of the rate of emission from the streets. The dispersion of automobile pollutant released from the street is simulated by introducing vehicular emission source term as a fixed-flux boundary condition at the ground level over the road. The emission source term is suitably calculated by adopting emission factors from literature for varying conditions of street traffic. It is observed that increase in wind angle disturbs the symmetric pattern of pollution distribution along the street length. The concentration increases in the far end of the street as compared to the near end.

Keywords: Street canyon, pollution dispersion, vehicular emission, numerical simulation.

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Authors: J.Morris, D.Allinson, J.Harrison, K.J. Lomas

Abstract:

The UK Government has emphasized the role of Local Authorities as a key player in its flagship residential energy efficiency strategies, by identifying and targeting areas for energy efficiency improvements. Residential energy consumption in England is characterized by significant geographical variation in energy demand, which makes centralized targeting of areas for energy efficiency intervention difficult. This paper draws on research which aims to understand how demographic, social, economic, urban form and climatic factors influence the geographical variations in English residential gas consumption. The paper reports the findings of a multiple regression model that shows how 64% of the geographical variation in residential gas consumption is accounted for by variations in these factors. Results from this study, after further refinement and validation, can be used by Local Authorities to identify areas within their boundaries that have higher than expected gas consumption, these may be prime targets for energy efficiency initiatives.

Keywords: UK Housing, Heating Energy, Socio-Economics, Statistical Modelling

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