Search results for: heuristic trend prediction.

Authors: Francesco Caputo, Giuseppe Lamanna, Alessandro Soprano

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This work is focused on the numerical prediction of the fracture resistance of a flat stiffened panel made of the aluminium alloy 2024 T3 under a monotonic traction condition. The performed numerical simulations have been based on the micromechanical Gurson-Tvergaard (GT) model for ductile damage. The applicability of the GT model to this kind of structural problems has been studied and assessed by comparing numerical results, obtained by using the WARP 3D finite element code, with experimental data available in literature. In the sequel a home-made procedure is presented, which aims to increase the residual strength of a cracked stiffened aluminum panel and which is based on the stochastic design improvement (SDI) technique; a whole application example is then given to illustrate the said technique.

Keywords: Residual strength, R-Curve, Gurson model, SDI.

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Authors: Hari Mohan Kushwaha, Santosh K. Sahu

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In the present study, analysis of heat transfer is carried out in the slip flow region for the fluid flowing between two parallel plates by employing the asymmetric heat fluxes at surface of the plates. The flow is assumed to be hydrodynamically and thermally fully developed for the analysis. The second order velocity slip and viscous dissipation effects are considered for the analysis. Closed form expressions are obtained for the Nusselt number as a function of Knudsen number and modified Brinkman number. The limiting condition of the present prediction for Kn = 0, Kn2 = 0, and Brq1 = 0 is considered and found to agree well with other analytical results.

Keywords: Knudsen Number, Modified Brinkman Number, Slip Flow, Velocity Slip.

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Authors: Kevin McDaid, Simon P. Wilson

Abstract:

Software developed for a specific customer under contract typically undergoes a period of testing by the customer before acceptance. This is known as user acceptance testing and the process can reveal both defects in the system and requests for changes to the product. This paper uses nonhomogeneous Poisson processes to model a real user acceptance data set from a recently developed system. In particular a split Poisson process is shown to provide an excellent fit to the data. The paper explains how this model can be used to aid the allocation of resources through the accurate prediction of occurrences both during the acceptance testing phase and before this activity begins.

Keywords: User acceptance testing. Software reliability growth modelling. Split Poisson process. Bayesian methods.

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Authors: Defu Zhang, Qingshan Jiang, Xin Li

Abstract:

This paper deals with the application of a well-known neural network technique, multilayer back-propagation (BP) neural network, in financial data mining. A modified neural network forecasting model is presented, and an intelligent mining system is developed. The system can forecast the buying and selling signs according to the prediction of future trends to stock market, and provide decision-making for stock investors. The simulation result of seven years to Shanghai Composite Index shows that the return achieved by this mining system is about three times as large as that achieved by the buy and hold strategy, so it is advantageous to apply neural networks to forecast financial time series, the different investors could benefit from it.

Keywords: Data mining, neural network, stock forecasting.

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Authors: Mohammad Najafi, Hossein Roghani-Mamaqani, Mehdi Salami-Kalajahi, Vahid Haddadi-Asl

Abstract:

A high-performance Monte Carlo simulation, which simultaneously takes diffusion-controlled and chain-length-dependent bimolecular termination reactions into account, is developed to simulate atom transfer radical copolymerization of styrene and nbutyl acrylate. As expected, increasing initial feed fraction of styrene raises the fraction of styrene-styrene dyads (fAA) and reduces that of n-butyl acrylate dyads (fBB). The trend of variation in randomness parameter (fAB) during the copolymerization also varies significantly. Also, there is a drift in copolymer heterogeneity and the highest drift occurs in the initial feeds containing lower percentages of styrene, i.e. 20% and 5%.

Keywords: Atom Transfer Radical Copolymerization, MonteCarlo Simulation, Copolymer Heterogeneity, Styrene n-ButylAcrylate

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Authors: Lely A. Luengas, Pedro R. Vizcaya, Giovanni Sánchez

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In this paper, a methodology is presented to obtain the Static Alignment Model for any transtibial amputee person. The proposed methodology starts from experimental data collected on the Hospital Militar Central, Bogotá, Colombia. The effects of transtibial prosthesis malalignment on amputees were measured in terms of joint angles, center of pressure (COP) and weight distribution. Some statistical tools are used to obtain the model parameters. Mathematical predictive models of prosthetic alignment were created. The proposed models are validated in amputees and finding promising results for the prosthesis Static Alignment. Static alignment process is unique to each subject; nevertheless the proposed methodology can be used in each transtibial amputee.

Keywords: Information theory, prediction model, prosthetic alignment, transtibial prosthesis.

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Authors: Sayali Sandbhor, Ravindra Bapat, N. B. Chaphalkar

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Decisions for investment, buying and selling of properties depend upon the market value of that property. Issues arise in arriving at the actual value of the property as well as computing the rate of returns from the estate. Addressing valuation related issues through an understanding of behavior of real property rates provide the means to explore the quality of past decisions and to make valid future decisions. Pune, an important city in India, has witnessed a high rate of growth in past few years. Increased demand for housing and investment in properties has led to increase in the rates of real estate. An attempt has been made to study the change and behavior of rates of real estate and factors influencing the same in Pune city.

Keywords: Real estate, valuation, property rates, trend analysis

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Authors: Saad Nahi Saleh

Abstract:

This paper presents the prediction of air flow, humidity and temperature patterns in a co-current pilot plant spray dryer fitted with a pressure nozzle using a three dimensional model. The modelling was done with a Computational Fluid Dynamic package (Fluent 6.3), in which the gas phase is modelled as continuum using the Euler approach and the droplet/ particle phase is modelled by the Discrete Phase model (Lagrange approach).Good agreement was obtained with published experimental data where the CFD simulation correctly predicts a fast downward central flowing core and slow recirculation zones near the walls. In this work, the effects of the air flow pattern on droplets trajectories, residence time distribution of droplets and deposition of the droplets on the wall also were investigated where atomizing of maltodextrin solution was used.

Keywords: Spray, CFD, multiphase, drying, droplet, particle.

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Authors: Mostafa Alinezhad, Mehrdad Ahmadi Kamarposhti

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According to the increasing utilization in power system, the transmission lines and power plants often operate in stability boundary and system probably lose its stable condition by over loading or occurring disturbance. According to the reasons that are mentioned, the prediction and recognition of voltage instability in power system has particular importance and it makes the network security stronger.This paper, by considering of power system contingencies based on the effects of them on Mega Watt Margin (MWM) and maximum loading point is focused in order to analyse the static voltage stability using continuation power flow method. The study has been carried out on IEEE 14-Bus Test System using Matlab and Psat softwares and results are presented.

Keywords: Contingency, Continuation Power Flow, Static Voltage Stability, Voltage Collapse.

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Authors: AL.AL, M. B. I. Reaz, S. M. A. Motakabber, Mohd Alauddin Mohd Ali

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Nowadays it is a trend for electronic circuit designers to integrate all system components on a single-chip. This paper proposed the design of a single-chip proportional to absolute temperature (PTAT) sensor including a voltage reference circuit using CEDEC 0.18m CMOS Technology. It is a challenge to design asingle-chip wide range linear response temperature sensor for many applications. The channel widths between the compensation transistor and the reference transistor are critical to design the PTAT temperature sensor circuit. The designed temperature sensor shows excellent linearity between -100°C to 200° and the sensitivity is about 0.05mV/°C. The chip is designed to operate with a single voltage source of 1.6V.

Keywords: PTAT, single-chip circuit, linear temperature sensor, CMOS technology.

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Authors: Gitanjali Devi, Kandarpa Kumar Sarma, Pranayee Datta, Anjana Kakoti Mahanta

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Artificial Neural Network (ANN)s can be modeled for High Energy Particle analysis with special emphasis on shower core location. The work describes the use of an ANN based system which has been configured to predict locations of cores of showers in the range 1010.5 to 1020.5 eV. The system receives density values as inputs and generates coordinates of shower events recorded for values captured by 20 core positions and 80 detectors in an area of 100 meters. Twenty ANNs are trained for the purpose and the positions of shower events optimized by using cooperative ANN learning. The results derived with variations of input upto 50% show success rates in the range of 90s.

Keywords: EAS, Shower, Core, ANN, Location.

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Authors: Kai-Lin Hsu, Jie-Chung Lou, Jia-Yun Han

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In recent years, the underground water sources in southern Taiwan have become salinized because of saltwater intrusions. This study explores the adsorption characteristics of activated carbon on salinizing inorganic salts using isothermal adsorption experiments and provides a model analysis. The temperature range for the isothermal adsorption experiments ranged between 5 to 45 ℃, and the amount adsorbed varied between 28.21 to 33.87 mg/g. All experimental data of adsorption can be fitted to both the Langmuir and the Freundlich models. The thermodynamic parameters for per chlorate onto granular activated carbon were calculated as -0.99 to -1.11 kcal/mol for DG°, -0.6 kcal/mol for DH°, and 1.21 to 1.84 kcal/mol for DS°. This shows that the adsorption process of granular activated carbon is spontaneously exothermic. The observation of adsorption behaviors under low ionic strength, low pH values, and low temperatures is beneficial to the adsorption removal of perchlorate with granular activated carbon.

Keywords: Water Treatment, Per Chlorate, Adsorption, Granular Activated Carbon

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Authors: Attapon Charoenpon, Ekkarach Pankeaw

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This paper present a new way to find the aerodynamic characteristic equation of missile for the numerical trajectories prediction more accurate. The goal is to obtain the polynomial equation based on two missile characteristic parameters, angle of attack (α ) and flight speed (╬¢ ). First, the understudied missile is modeled and used for flow computational model to compute aerodynamic force and moment. Assume that performance range of understudied missile where range -10< α <10 and 0< ╬¢ <200. After completely obtained results of all cases, the data are fit by polynomial interpolation to create equation of each case and then combine all equations to form aerodynamic characteristic equation, which will be used for trajectories simulation.

Keywords: Aerodynamic, Characteristic Equation, Angle ofAttack, Polynomial interpolation, Trajectories

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Authors: Hazleen Anuar, Nur Aimi Mohd Nasir, Yousuf El-Shekeil

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Durian skin is a newly explores natural fibre potentially reinforced polyolefin for diverse applications. In this work, investigation on the effect of coupling agent, maleic anhydride polypropylene (MAPP) on the mechanical, morphological, and thermal properties of polypropylene (PP) reinforced with durian skin fibre (DSF) was conducted. The presence of 30 wt% DSF significantly reduced the tensile strength of PP-DSF composite. Interestingly, even though the same trend goes to PP-DSF with the presence of MAPP, the reduction is only about 4% relative to unreinforced PP and 18% higher than PP-DSF without MAPP (untreated composite or UTC). The used of MAPP in treated composite (TC) also increased the tensile modulus, flexural properties and degradation temperature. The enhanced mechanical properties are consistent with good interfacial interaction as evidenced under scanning electron microscopy.

Keywords: Durian skin fiber, coupling agent, mechanical properties, thermogravimetry analysis.

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Authors: Abolhassan Razminia, Mohammad-Ali Sadrnia

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Chua’s circuit is one of the most important electronic devices that are used for Chaos and Bifurcation studies. A central role of secure communication is devoted to it. Since the adaptive control is used vastly in the linear systems control, here we introduce a new trend of application of adaptive method in the chaos controlling field. In this paper, we try to derive a new adaptive control scheme for Chua’s circuit controlling because control of chaos is often very important in practical operations. The novelty of this approach is for sake of its robustness against the external perturbations which is simulated as an additive noise in all measured states and can be generalized to other chaotic systems. Our approach is based on Lyapunov analysis and the adaptation law is considered for the feedback gain. Because of this, we have named it NAFT (Nonlinear Adaptive Feedback Technique). At last, simulations show the capability of the presented technique for Chua’s circuit.

Keywords: Chaos, adaptive control, nonlinear control, Chua's circuit.

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Authors: Patrick T. I. Lam, Wenjing Yang

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A smart city project embraces benefits and costs which can be classified under direct and indirect categories. Externalities come into the picture, but they are often difficult to quantify. Despite this barrier, policy makers need to carry out cost-benefit analysis to justify the huge investments needed to make a city smart. The recent trend is towards the engagement of the private sector to utilize their resources and expertise, especially in the Information and Communication Technology (ICT) areas, where innovations blossom. This study focuses on the identification of costs (on a life cycle basis) and benefits associated with smart city project developments based on a comprehensive literature review and case studies, where public-private partnerships would warrant consideration, the related costs and benefits are highlighted. The findings will be useful for policy makers of cities.

Keywords: Costs and benefits, identification, public-private partnerships, smart city projects.

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Authors: Wei Bai, Ling-Wei Kong, Ai-Guo Guo

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Base on extenics theory, the statistical physical and mechanical properties from laboratory experiments are used to evaluate the bearing capacity of lateritic soil foundation. The properties include water content, bulk density, liquid limit, cohesion, and so on. The matter-element and the dependent function are defined. Then the synthesis dependent degree and the final grade index are calculated. The results show that predicted outcomes can be matched with the in-situ test data, and a evaluate grade associate with bearing capacity can be deduced. The results provide guidance to assess and determine the bearing capacity grade of lateritic soil foundation.

Keywords: Lateritic soil, bearing capacity, extenics theory, plate loading test.

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Authors: T. Ahilan, V. Aswin Adityan, S. Kailash

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UAV’s are small remote operated or automated aerial surveillance systems without a human pilot aboard. UAV’s generally finds its use in military and special operation application, a recent growing trend in UAV’s finds its application in several civil and nonmilitary works such as inspection of power or pipelines. The objective of this paper is the augmentation of a UAV in order to replace the existing expensive sonar (Sound Navigation And Ranging) based equipment amongst small scale fisherman, for whom access to sonar equipment are restricted due to limited economic resources. The surveillance equipment’s present in the UAV will relay data and GPS (Global Positioning System) location onto a receiver on the fishing boat using RF signals, using which the location of the schools of fishes can be found. In addition to this, an emergency beacon system is present for rescue operations and drone recovery.

Keywords: GPS, RF signals, School of fish, Sonar, Surveillance UAV, Video stream.

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Authors: S. Saehana, F. Iskandar, M. Abdullah, Khairurrijal

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A numerical simulation of optimization all of electrospinning processing parameters to obtain smallest nanofiber diameter have been performed by employing genetic algorithm (GA). Fitness function in genetic algorithm methods, which was different for each parameter, was determined by simulation approach based on the Reneker’s model. Moreover, others genetic algorithm parameter, namely length of population, crossover and mutation were applied to get the optimum electrospinning processing parameters. In addition, minimum fiber diameter, 32 nm, was achieved from a simulation by applied the optimum parameters of electrospinning. This finding may be useful for process control and prediction of electrospun fiber production. In this paper, it is also compared between predicted parameters with some experimental results.

Keywords: Diameter, Electrospinning, GA, Nanofiber.

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Authors: Suk-Hyun Yu, Heeyong Kwon

Abstract:

Recently PM-10 has become a social and global issue. It is one of major air pollutants which affect human health. Therefore, it needs to be forecasted rapidly and precisely. However, PM-10 comes from various emission sources, and its level of concentration is largely dependent on meteorological and geographical factors of local and global region, so the forecasting of PM-10 concentration is very difficult. Neural network model can be used in the case. But, there are few cases of high concentration PM-10. It makes the learning of the neural network model difficult. In this paper, we suggest a simple input balancing method when the data distribution is uneven. It is based on the probability of appearance of the data. Experimental results show that the input balancing makes the neural networks’ learning easy and improves the forecasting rates.

Keywords: AI, air quality prediction, neural networks, pattern recognition, PM-10.

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Authors: Radovan Holubek, Matus Vlasek, Peter Kostal

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Development of intelligent assembly cell conception includes new solution kind of how to create structures of automated and flexible assembly system. The current trend of the final product quality increasing is affected by time analysis of the entire manufacturing process. The primary requirement of manufacturing is to produce as many products as soon as possible, at the lowest possible cost, but of course with the highest quality. Such requirements may be satisfied only if all the elements entering and affecting the production cycle are in a fully functional condition. These elements consist of sensory equipment and intelligent control elements that are essential for building intelligent manufacturing systems. Intelligent behavior of the system as the control system will repose on monitoring of important parameters of the system in the real time. Intelligent manufacturing system itself should be a system that can flexibly respond to changes in entering and exiting the process in interaction with the surroundings.

Keywords: Control system, intelligent manufacturing / assemble systems, manufacturing, monitoring process.

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Authors: Alima Damak Masmoudi, Randa Boukhris Trabelsi, Dorra Sellami Masmoudi

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Single biometric modality recognition is not able to meet the high performance supplies in most cases with its application become more and more broadly. Multimodal biometrics identification represents an emerging trend recently. This paper investigates a novel algorithm based on fusion of both fingerprint and fingervein biometrics. For both biometric recognition, we employ the Monogenic Local Binary Pattern (MonoLBP). This operator integrate the orginal LBP (Local Binary Pattern ) with both other rotation invariant measures: local phase and local surface type. Experimental results confirm that a weighted sum based proposed fusion achieves excellent identification performances opposite unimodal biometric systems. The AUC of proposed approach based on combining the two modalities has very close to unity (0.93).

Keywords: fingerprint, fingervein, LBP, MonoLBP, fusion, biometric trait.

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Authors: Zhongxu Chen, Jun Yang, Heyue Mao, Xiaoyu Zheng

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Hemorrhage Disease of Grass Carp (HDGC) is a kind of commonly occurring illnesses in summer, and the extremely high death rate result in colossal losses to aquaculture. As the complex connections among each factor which influences aquiculture diseases, there-s no quit reasonable mathematical model to solve the problem at present.A BP neural network which with excellent nonlinear mapping coherence was adopted to establish mathematical model; Environmental factor, which can easily detected, such as breeding density, water temperature, pH and light intensity was set as the main analyzing object. 25 groups of experimental data were used for training and test, and the accuracy of using the model to predict the trend of HDGC was above 80%. It is demonstrated that BP neural network for predicating diseases in HDGC has a particularly objectivity and practicality, thus it can be spread to other aquiculture disease.

Keywords: Aquaculture, Hemorrhage Disease of Grass Carp, BP Neural Network

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Authors: Seyed Fazel Ziaei Asl, Ali Karami, Gholamreza Ashari, Azam Behrang, Arezoo Assareh, N.Hedayat

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Predict daily global solar radiation (GSR) based on meteorological variables, using Multi-layer perceptron (MLP) neural networks is the main objective of this study. Daily mean air temperature, relative humidity, sunshine hours, evaporation, wind speed, and soil temperature values between 2002 and 2006 for Dezful city in Iran (32° 16' N, 48° 25' E), are used in this study. The measured data between 2002 and 2005 are used to train the neural networks while the data for 214 days from 2006 are used as testing data.

Keywords: Multi-layer Perceptron (MLP) Neural Networks;Global Solar Radiation (GSR), Meteorological Parameters, Prediction.

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Authors: M.A. Kamely, S.M. Kamil, C.W. Chong

Abstract:

A mathematical model of the surface roughness has been developed by using response surface methodology (RSM) in grinding of AISI D2 cold work tool steels. Analysis of variance (ANOVA) was used to check the validity of the model. Low and high value for work speed and feed rate are decided from design of experiment. The influences of all machining parameters on surface roughness have been analyzed based on the developed mathematical model. The developed prediction equation shows that both the feed rate and work speed are the most important factor that influences the surface roughness. The surface roughness was found to be the lowers with the used of low feed rate and low work speed. Accuracy of the best model was proved with the testing data.

Keywords: Mathematical Modeling, Response surfacemethodology, Surface roughness, Cylindrical Grinding.

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Authors: Ya-Fen Lee, Yun-Yao Chi

Abstract:

This paper aims to quantify the impact of natural disaster on tourism by the change of annual visitors to scenic spots. The data of visitors to Alishan, Sun Moon Lake, Sitou and Palace Museum in Taiwan during 1986 to 2012 year is collected, and the trend analysis is used to predict the annual visitors to these scenic spots. The findings show that 1999 Taiwan earthquake had significant effect on the visitors to Alishan, Sun Moon Lake and Sitou with an average impact of 55.75% during 1999 to 2000 year except for Palace Museum. The impact was greater as closer epicenter of 1999 earthquake. And the discovery period of visitors is about 2 to 9 years. Further, the impact of heavy rainfall on Alishan, Taiwan is estimated. As the accumulative rainfall reaches to 500 mm, the impact on visitors can be predicted. 

Keywords: Impact, Natural disaster, tourism, visitors.

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Authors: Masahiro Taketa, Masaki Ito, Takao Kawamura, Kazunori Sugahara

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We develop a new interface for Bus-Net which is optimized for a smartphone. We are continuing to develop the shortest path planning system of public transportation called "Bus-Net" in Tottori prefecture as web application to improve the usability of public transportation. Recent trend of computing platform, however has shifted to an advanced mobile device called a smartphone such as iPhone and Android in Japan. A smartphone has different characters with existing feature phone in terms of OS, large touche panel, and several other features. We derive a guideline to design the new interface for a smartphone to full use of the functionality. The guideline is about simplicity of user-s operation, location awareness and usability. We developed the new interface for “Bus-Net" on iPhone referring to the guideline. Due to the evaluation, the application interface we developed is better than the existing web-based interface in terms of the usability.

Keywords: Path Planning, Public Transportation, Smartphone, User Interface

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Authors: Hřebíčková Sylva, Grasgruber Pavel, Ondráček Jan, Cacek Jan, KalinaTomáš

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The aim of this study was to describe typical changes in several parameters of body composition – the amount of skeletal muscle mass (SMM), % body fat (BF) and body mass index (BMI) - in selected age categories (30+ years) of men and women in the Czech Republic, depending on the degree of sports activity. Study (n = 823, M = 343, F = 480) monitored differences in BF, SM and BMI in five age groups (from 30-39 years to 70+ years). Physically inactive individuals have (p < 0.05) higher % BF in comparison with physically active individuals (29.5 ± 0.59 vs. 27 ± 0.38%), higher BMI (27.3 ± 0.32 vs. 26.1 ± 0.20 kg/m²), but lower SM (39.0 ± 0.33 vs. 40.4 ± 0.21%). The results indicate that with an increasing age, there is a trend towards increasing values of BMI and % BF, and decreasing values of SMM.

Keywords: Body composition, body fat, physical activity, skeletal muscle.

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Authors: Hussam Al-Shorman, Yosef Hasan Jbara

Abstract:

A business case is a proposal for an investment initiative to satisfy business and functional requirements. The business case provides the foundation for tactical decision making and technology risk management. It helps to clarify how the organization will use its resources in the best way by providing justification for investment of resources. This paper describes how simulation was used for business case benefits and return on investment for the procurement of 8 production machines. With investment costs of about 4.7 million dollars and annual operating costs of about 1.3 million, we needed to determine if the machines would provide enough cost savings and cost avoidance. We constructed a model of the existing factory environment consisting of 8 machines and subsequently, we conducted average day simulations with light and heavy volumes to facilitate planning decisions required to be documented and substantiated in the business case.

Keywords: Investment cost, business case, return on investment, simulation.

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Authors: S. M. Munde, N. R. Hazari, A. P. Thorat, S. B. Gaikwad, V. S. Hatolkar

Abstract:

This study was conducted to examine the possible role of serum Gamma-glutamyltransferase (GGT) and Lactate dehydrogenase (LDH) in the prediction of severity of preeclampsia. The study group comprised of 40 preeclamptic cases (22 with mild and 18 with severe) and 40 healthy normotensive pregnant controls. Serum samples of all the cases were assayed for GGT and LDH. Demographic, hemodynamic and laboratory data as well as serum GGT and LDH levels were compared among the three groups.

The results indicated that severe preeclamptic cases had significantly increased levels of serum GGT and LDH. The symptoms in severe preeclamptic women were significantly increased in patients with GGT > 70 IU/L and LDH >800 IU/L. Elevated levels of serum GGT and LDH can be used as biochemical markers which reflects the severity of preeclampsia and useful for the management of preeclampsia to decrease maternal and fetal morbidity and mortality.

Keywords: Severe Preeclampsia, GGT, LDH.

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