Search results for: efficiency curve.
Commenced in January 2007
Frequency: Monthly
Edition: International
Paper Count: 2813

Search results for: efficiency curve.

2753 Investigation on Ship Collision Phenomena by Analytical and Finite Element Methods

Authors: Abuzar.Abazari, Saeed. Ziaei-Rad, Hoseein. Dalayeli

Abstract:

Collision is considered as a time-depended nonlinear dynamic phenomenon. The majority of researchers have focused on deriving the resultant damage of the ship collisions via analytical, experimental, and finite element methods.In this paper, first, the force-penetration curve of a head collision on a container ship with rigid barrier based on Yang and Pedersen-s methods for internal mechanic section is studied. Next, the obtained results from different analytical methods are compared with each others. Then, through a simulation of the container ship collision in Ansys Ls-Dyna, results from finite element approach are compared with analytical methods and the source of errors is discussed. Finally, the effects of parameters such as velocity, and angle of collision on the forcepenetration curve are investigated.

Keywords: Ship collision, Force-penetration curve, Damage

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2752 The Ability of Forecasting the Term Structure of Interest Rates Based On Nelson-Siegel and Svensson Model

Authors: Tea Poklepović, Zdravka Aljinović, Branka Marasović

Abstract:

Due to the importance of yield curve and its estimation it is inevitable to have valid methods for yield curve forecasting in cases when there are scarce issues of securities and/or week trade on a secondary market. Therefore in this paper, after the estimation of weekly yield curves on Croatian financial market from October 2011 to August 2012 using Nelson-Siegel and Svensson models, yield curves are forecasted using Vector autoregressive model and Neural networks. In general, it can be concluded that both forecasting methods have good prediction abilities where forecasting of yield curves based on Nelson Siegel estimation model give better results in sense of lower Mean Squared Error than forecasting based on Svensson model Also, in this case Neural networks provide slightly better results. Finally, it can be concluded that most appropriate way of yield curve prediction is Neural networks using Nelson-Siegel estimation of yield curves.

Keywords: Nelson-Siegel model, Neural networks, Svensson model, Vector autoregressive model, Yield curve.

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2751 Generator Capability Curve Constraint for PSO Based Optimal Power Flow

Authors: Mat Syai'in, Adi Soeprijanto, Takashi Hiyama

Abstract:

An optimal power flow (OPF) based on particle swarm optimization (PSO) was developed with more realistic generator security constraint using the capability curve instead of only Pmin/Pmax and Qmin/Qmax. Neural network (NN) was used in designing digital capability curve and the security check algorithm. The algorithm is very simple and flexible especially for representing non linear generation operation limit near steady state stability limit and under excitation operation area. In effort to avoid local optimal power flow solution, the particle swarm optimization was implemented with enough widespread initial population. The objective function used in the optimization process is electric production cost which is dominated by fuel cost. The proposed method was implemented at Java Bali 500 kV power systems contain of 7 generators and 20 buses. The simulation result shows that the combination of generator power output resulted from the proposed method was more economic compared with the result using conventional constraint but operated at more marginal operating point.

Keywords: Optimal Power Flow, Generator Capability Curve, Particle Swarm Optimization, Neural Network

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2750 Integrating Security Indifference Curve to Formal Decision Evaluation

Authors: Anon Yantarasri, Yachai Limpiyakorn

Abstract:

Decisions are regularly made during a project or daily life. Some decisions are critical and have a direct impact on project or human success. Formal evaluation is thus required, especially for crucial decisions, to arrive at the optimal solution among alternatives to address issues. According to microeconomic theory, all people-s decisions can be modeled as indifference curves. The proposed approach supports formal analysis and decision by constructing indifference curve model from the previous experts- decision criteria. These knowledge embedded in the system can be reused or help naïve users select alternative solution of the similar problem. Moreover, the method is flexible to cope with unlimited number of factors influencing the decision-making. The preliminary experimental results of the alternative selection are accurately matched with the expert-s decisions.

Keywords: Decision Analysis and Resolution, Indifference Curve, Multi-criteria Decision Making.

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2749 Modeling and Experimental Studies on Solar Crop Dryer Coupled with Reversed Absorber Type Solar Air Heater

Authors: Vijay R. Khawale, Shashank B. Thakare

Abstract:

The experiment was carried out to study the performance of solar crop dryer coupled with reversed absorber type solar air heater (SD2). Excel software is used to analyse the raw data obtained from the drying experiment to develop a model. An attempt is made in this paper to correlate the collector efficiency, dryer efficiency and pick-up efficiency. All these efficiencies are dependent on the parameters such as solar flux, ambient temperature, collector outlet temperature and moisture content. The simulation equation was developed to predict the values of collector efficiency. The parameters a, n and drying constant k were determined from a plot of curve using a drying models. Experimental data of drying red chili in conventional solar dryer and solar dryer coupled with reversed absorber solar air heater was compared by fitting with three drying models. The moisture content will be rapidly reduced in solar dryer with reversed absorber due to higher drying temperatures. The best fit model was selected to describe the drying behavior of red chili. For SD2 the values of the coefficient of determination (R2=0.997), mean bias error (MBE=0.00026) and root mean square error (RMSE=0.016) were used to determine the goodness or the quality of the fit. Pages model showed a better fit to drying red chili among Newton model and Henderson & Pabis model.

Keywords: Solar dryer, red chili, reversed absorber, reflector, Buckingham pi theorem, drying model.

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2748 Maximizing the Efficiency of Knowledge Management Systems

Authors: Tori R. Dodla, Laura A. Jones

Abstract:

The objective of this study was to propose strategies to improve the efficiency of Knowledge Management Systems (KMS). This study highlights best practices from various industries to create an overall summary of Knowledge Management (KM) and efficiency in organizational performance. Results indicated 11 best practices for maximizing the efficiency of organizational KMS that can be divided into four categories: Designing the KMS, identifying case studies, implementing the KMS, and promoting adoption and usage. Our findings can be used as a foundation for scholars to conduct further research on KMS efficiency.

Keywords: Artificial intelligence, knowledge management efficiency, knowledge management systems, organizational performance.

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2747 Determining G-γ Degradation Curve in Cohesive Soils by Dilatometer and in situ Seismic Tests

Authors: Ivandic Kreso, Spiranec Miljenko, Kavur Boris, Strelec Stjepan

Abstract:

This article discusses the possibility of using dilatometer tests (DMT) together with in situ seismic tests (MASW) in order to get the shape of G-g degradation curve in cohesive soils (clay, silty clay, silt, clayey silt and sandy silt). MASW test provides the small soil stiffness (Go from vs) at very small strains and DMT provides the stiffness of the soil at ‘work strains’ (MDMT). At different test locations, dilatometer shear stiffness of the soil has been determined by the theory of elasticity. Dilatometer shear stiffness has been compared with the theoretical G-g degradation curve in order to determine the typical range of shear deformation for different types of cohesive soil. The analysis also includes factors that influence the shape of the degradation curve (G-g) and dilatometer modulus (MDMT), such as the overconsolidation ratio (OCR), plasticity index (IP) and the vertical effective stress in the soil (svo'). Parametric study in this article defines the range of shear strain gDMT and GDMT/Go relation depending on the classification of a cohesive soil (clay, silty clay, clayey silt, silt and sandy silt), function of density (loose, medium dense and dense) and the stiffness of the soil (soft, medium hard and hard). The article illustrates the potential of using MASW and DMT to obtain G-g degradation curve in cohesive soils.

Keywords: Dilatometer testing, MASW testing, shear wave, soil stiffness, stiffness reduction, shear strain.

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2746 Cryptography Over Elliptic Curve Of The Ring Fq[e], e4 = 0

Authors: Chillali Abdelhakim

Abstract:

Groups where the discrete logarithm problem (DLP) is believed to be intractable have proved to be inestimable building blocks for cryptographic applications. They are at the heart of numerous protocols such as key agreements, public-key cryptosystems, digital signatures, identification schemes, publicly verifiable secret sharings, hash functions and bit commitments. The search for new groups with intractable DLP is therefore of great importance.The goal of this article is to study elliptic curves over the ring Fq[], with Fq a finite field of order q and with the relation n = 0, n ≥ 3. The motivation for this work came from the observation that several practical discrete logarithm-based cryptosystems, such as ElGamal, the Elliptic Curve Cryptosystems . In a first time, we describe these curves defined over a ring. Then, we study the algorithmic properties by proposing effective implementations for representing the elements and the group law. In anther article we study their cryptographic properties, an attack of the elliptic discrete logarithm problem, a new cryptosystem over these curves.

Keywords: Elliptic Curve Over Ring, Discrete Logarithm Problem.

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2745 Optimized Calculation of Hourly Price Forward Curve (HPFC)

Authors: Ahmed Abdolkhalig

Abstract:

This paper examines many mathematical methods for molding the hourly price forward curve (HPFC); the model will be constructed by numerous regression methods, like polynomial regression, radial basic function neural networks & a furrier series. Examination the models goodness of fit will be done by means of statistical & graphical tools. The criteria for choosing the model will depend on minimize the Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE), using the correlation analysis approach for the regression analysis the optimal model will be distinct, which are robust against model misspecification. Learning & supervision technique employed to determine the form of the optimal parameters corresponding to each measure of overall loss. By using all the numerical methods that mentioned previously; the explicit expressions for the optimal model derived and the optimal designs will be implemented.

Keywords: Forward curve, furrier series, regression, radial basic function neural networks.

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2744 A Super-Efficiency Model for Evaluating Efficiency in the Presence of Time Lag Effect

Authors: Yanshuang Zhang, Byungho Jeong

Abstract:

In many cases, there are some time lag between the consumption of inputs and the production of outputs. This time lag effect should be considered in evaluating the performance of organizations. Recently, a couple of DEA models were developed for considering time lag effect in efficiency evaluation of research activities. Multi-periods input(MpI) and Multi-periods output(MpO) models are integrate models to calculate simple efficiency considering time lag effect. However, these models can’t discriminate efficient DMUs because of the nature of basic DEA model in which efficiency scores are limited to ‘1’. That is, efficient DMUs can’t be discriminated because their efficiency scores are same. Thus, this paper suggests a super-efficiency model for efficiency evaluation under the consideration of time lag effect based on the MpO model. A case example using a long term research project is given to compare the suggested model with the MpO model.

Keywords: DEA, Super-efficiency, Time Lag.

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2743 Neural Network Optimal Power Flow(NN-OPF) based on IPSO with Developed Load Cluster Method

Authors: Mat Syai'in, Adi Soeprijanto

Abstract:

An Optimal Power Flow based on Improved Particle Swarm Optimization (OPF-IPSO) with Generator Capability Curve Constraint is used by NN-OPF as a reference to get pattern of generator scheduling. There are three stages in Designing NN-OPF. The first stage is design of OPF-IPSO with generator capability curve constraint. The second stage is clustering load to specific range and calculating its index. The third stage is training NN-OPF using constructive back propagation method. In training process total load and load index used as input, and pattern of generator scheduling used as output. Data used in this paper is power system of Java-Bali. Software used in this simulation is MATLAB.

Keywords: Optimal Power Flow, Generator Capability Curve, Improved Particle Swarm Optimization, Neural Network

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2742 Study on the Effect of Bolt Locking Method on the Deformation of Bipolar Plate in PEMFC

Authors: Tao Chen, ShiHua Liu, JiWei Zhang

Abstract:

Assembly of the proton exchange membrane fuel cells (PEMFC) has a very important influence on its performance and efficiency. The various components of PEMFC stack are usually locked and fixed by bolts. Locking bolt will cause the deformation of the bipolar plate and the other components, which will affect directly the deformation degree of the integral parts of the PEMFC as well as the performance of PEMFC. This paper focuses on the object of three-cell stack of PEMFC. Finite element simulation is used to investigate the deformation of bipolar plate caused by quantity and layout of bolts, bolt locking pressure, and bolt locking sequence, etc. Finally, we made a conclusion that the optimal combination packaging scheme was adopted to assemble the fuel cell stack. The scheme was in use of 3.8 MPa locking pressure imposed on the fuel cell stack, type Ⅱ of four locking bolts and longitudinal locking method. The scheme was obtained by comparatively analyzing the overall displacement contour of PEMFC stack, absolute displacement curve of bipolar plate along the given three paths in the Z direction and the polarization curve of fuel cell. The research results are helpful for the fuel cell stack assembly.

Keywords: Bipolar plate, deformation, finite element simulation, fuel cell, locking bolt.

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2741 Development of Solar Poly House Tunnel Dryer (STD) for Medicinal Plants

Authors: N. C. Shahi, Anupama Singh, A. E. Kate

Abstract:

There was a scenario present day that drying of fresh fruits and vegetables by indirect solar drying by using mechanical device; hence, an effort was made to develop a small scale solar tunnel dryer (STD). Drying of spinach is carried out to analyze the performance of the dryer and to study its drying characteristics. To evaluate the performance of dryer the independent variables were selected as air flow rate, loading density and shade net while collector efficiency, drying efficiency, overall efficiency and specific energy consumption were selected as responses during performing the experiments. The spinach was dried from initial moisture content 88.21-94.04% (w.b.) to final moisture content 3.50-5.13% (w.b.). The drying time considerably reduced as compared to open sun drying of spinach as sun drying took 15 h for drying. The average collector efficiency, drying efficiency and overall efficiency were in the range 28.73-61.15%, 11.63% to 22.13%, and 7.61-14.66%, respectively.

Keywords: Solar dryer, collector efficiency, drying efficiency, spinach.

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2740 Arc Length of Rational Bezier Curves and Use for CAD Reparametrization

Authors: Maharavo Randrianarivony

Abstract:

The length  of a given rational B'ezier curve is efficiently estimated. Since a rational B'ezier function is nonlinear, it is usually impossible to evaluate its length exactly. The length is approximated by using subdivision and the accuracy of the approximation n is investigated. In order to improve the efficiency, adaptivity is used with some length estimator. A rigorous theoretical analysis of the rate of convergence of n to  is given. The required number of subdivisions to attain a prescribed accuracy is also analyzed. An application to CAD parametrization is briefly described. Numerical results are reported to supplement the theory.

Keywords: Adaptivity, Length, Parametrization, Rational Bezier

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2739 On the Efficiency of a Double-Cone Gravitational Motor and Generator

Authors: Barenten Suciu, Akio Miyamura

Abstract:

In this paper, following the study-case of an inclined plane gravitational machine, efficiency of a double-cone gravitational motor and generator is evaluated. Two types of efficiency ratios, called translational efficiency and rotational efficiency, are defined relative to the intended duty of the gravitational machine, which can be either the production of translational kinetic energy, or rotational kinetic energy. One proved that, for pure rolling movement of the double- cone, in the absence of rolling friction, the total mechanical energy is conserved. In such circumstances, as the motion of the double-cone progresses along rails, the translational efficiency decreases and the rotational efficiency increases, in such way that sum of the rotational and translational efficiencies remains unchanged and equal to 1. Results obtained allow a comparison of the gravitational machine with other types of motor-generators, in terms of the achievable efficiency.

Keywords: Truncated double-cone, friction, rolling and sliding, efficiency, gravitational motor and generator.

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2738 A Study of General Attacks on Elliptic Curve Discrete Logarithm Problem over Prime Field and Binary Field

Authors: Tun Myat Aung, Ni Ni Hla

Abstract:

This paper begins by describing basic properties of finite field and elliptic curve cryptography over prime field and binary field. Then we discuss the discrete logarithm problem for elliptic curves and its properties. We study the general common attacks on elliptic curve discrete logarithm problem such as the Baby Step, Giant Step method, Pollard’s rho method and Pohlig-Hellman method, and describe in detail experiments of these attacks over prime field and binary field. The paper finishes by describing expected running time of the attacks and suggesting strong elliptic curves that are not susceptible to these attacks.c

Keywords: Discrete logarithm problem, general attacks, elliptic curves, strong curves, prime field, binary field, attack experiments.

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2737 Evaluation of Research in the Field of Energy Efficiency and MCA Methods Using Publications Databases

Authors: Juan Sepúlveda

Abstract:

Energy is a fundamental component in sustainability, the access and use of this resource is related with economic growth, social improvements, and environmental impacts. In this sense, energy efficiency has been studied as a factor that enhances the positive impacts of energy in communities; however, the implementation of efficiency requires strong policy and strategies that usually rely on individual measures focused in independent dimensions. In this paper, the problem of energy efficiency as a multi-objective problem is studied, using scientometric analysis to discover trends and patterns that allow to identify the main variables and study approximations related with a further development of models to integrate energy efficiency and MCA into policy making for small communities.

Keywords: Energy efficiency, MCA, Scientometrics, trends.

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2736 Parametric Analysis on Information Technology Adoption and Organizational Efficiency in Northern Nigeria

Authors: A. Y. Dutse, S. I. Ningi

Abstract:

The adoption and diffusion of Information Technology (IT) is one of the fastest growing trends in organizations operating within Nigeria’s economy. Public and private organizations make huge capital investments in an attempt acquire and adopt the state-of-the-art IT for improving operational efficiency. In this study the level of IT adoption is considered the primary driver of efficiency witnessed by organizations. The research gathered data on the intensity of IT usage, and resultant efficiency increase in the organizations’ operations. The data was analyzed using multiple regression analysis and reveals that high level of IT usage has enhance efficiency of private and public organizations in Northern part of Nigeria with organizations having strategic intent on IT adoption indicating higher efficiency gains.

Keywords: IT Adoption, Nigeria, Organizational efficiency.

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2735 A Novel Antenna Design for Telemedicine Applications

Authors: Amar Partap Singh Pharwaha, Shweta Rani

Abstract:

To develop a reliable and cost effective communication platform for the telemedicine applications, novel antenna design has been presented using bacterial foraging optimization (BFO) technique. The proposed antenna geometry is achieved by etching a modified Koch curve fractal shape at the edges and a square shape slot at the center of the radiating element of a patch antenna. It has been found that the new antenna has achieved 43.79% size reduction and better resonating characteristic than the original patch. Representative results for both simulations and numerical validations are reported in order to assess the effectiveness of the developed methodology.

Keywords: BFO, electrical permittivity, fractals, Koch curve.

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2734 A New Design Partially Blind Signature Scheme Based on Two Hard Mathematical Problems

Authors: Nedal Tahat

Abstract:

Recently, many existing partially blind signature scheme based on a single hard problem such as factoring, discrete logarithm, residuosity or elliptic curve discrete logarithm problems. However sooner or later these systems will become broken and vulnerable, if the factoring or discrete logarithms problems are cracked. This paper proposes a secured partially blind signature scheme based on factoring (FAC) problem and elliptic curve discrete logarithms (ECDL) problem. As the proposed scheme is focused on factoring and ECDLP hard problems, it has a solid structure and will totally leave the intruder bemused because it is very unlikely to solve the two hard problems simultaneously. In order to assess the security level of the proposed scheme a performance analysis has been conducted. Results have proved that the proposed scheme effectively deals with the partial blindness, randomization, unlinkability and unforgeability properties. Apart from this we have also investigated the computation cost of the proposed scheme. The new proposed scheme is robust and it is difficult for the malevolent attacks to break our scheme.

Keywords: Cryptography, Partially Blind Signature, Factoring, Elliptic Curve Discrete Logarithms.

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2733 Generalized Method for Estimating Best-Fit Vertical Alignments for Profile Data

Authors: Said M. Easa, Shinya Kikuchi

Abstract:

When the profile information of an existing road is missing or not up-to-date and the parameters of the vertical alignment are needed for engineering analysis, the engineer has to recreate the geometric design features of the road alignment using collected profile data. The profile data may be collected using traditional surveying methods, global positioning systems, or digital imagery. This paper develops a method that estimates the parameters of the geometric features that best characterize the existing vertical alignments in terms of tangents and the expressions of the curve, that may be symmetrical, asymmetrical, reverse, and complex vertical curves. The method is implemented using an Excel-based optimization method that minimizes the differences between the observed profile and the profiles estimated from the equations of the vertical curve. The method uses a 'wireframe' representation of the profile that makes the proposed method applicable to all types of vertical curves. A secondary contribution of this paper is to introduce the properties of the equal-arc asymmetrical curve that has been recently developed in the highway geometric design field.

Keywords: Optimization, parameters, data, reverse, spreadsheet, vertical curves

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2732 Mechanical Model of Gypsum Board Anchors Subjected Cyclic Shear Loading

Authors: Yoshinori Kitsutaka, Fumiya Ikedo

Abstract:

In this study, the mechanical model of various anchors embedded in gypsum board subjected cyclic shear loading were investigated. Shear tests for anchors embedded in 200 mm square size gypsum board were conducted to measure the load - load displacement curves. The strength of the gypsum board was changed for three conditions and 12 kinds of anchors were selected which were ordinary used for gypsum board anchoring. The loading conditions were a monotonous loading and a cyclic loading controlled by a servo-controlled hydraulic loading system to achieve accurate measurement. The fracture energy for each of the anchors was estimated by the analysis of consumed energy calculated by the load - load displacement curve. The effect of the strength of gypsum board and the types of anchors on the shear properties of gypsum board anchors was cleared. A numerical model to predict the load-unload curve of shear deformation of gypsum board anchors caused by such as the earthquake load was proposed and the validity on the model was proved.

Keywords: Gypsum board, anchor, shear test, cyclic loading, load-unload curve.

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2731 Profit Efficiency and Competitiveness of Commercial Banks in Malaysia

Authors: Rosita Suhaimi, Firdaus Abdullah, Chong Fen Nee, Nurhani Aba Ibrahim

Abstract:

This paper attempts to identify the significance of Information and Communications Technology (ICT) and competitiveness to the profit efficiency of commercial banks in Malaysia. The profit efficiency of commercial banks in Malaysia, the dependent variable, was estimated using the Stochastic Frontier Approach (SFA) on a sample of unbalanced panel data, covering 23 commercial banks, between 1995 to 2007. Based on the empirical results, ICT was not found to exert a significant impact on profit efficiency, whereas competitiveness, non ICT stock expenditure and ownership were significant contributors. On the other hand, the size of banks was found to have significantly reduced profit efficiency, opening up for various interpretations of the interrelated role of ICT and competition.

Keywords: Competitiveness, Profit Efficiency, Stochastic Frontier Analysis

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2730 The Evaluation of Low-Carbon Economy Jiangsu, China

Authors: Qiu Dong-Fang, Li Bao-bao, Min Xing

Abstract:

Low-carbon economy means the energy conservation and emission reduction. How to measure and evaluate the regional low-carbon economy is an important problem which should be solved immediately. This paper proposed the eco-efficiency ratio based on the ecological efficiency to evaluate the current situation of the low-carbon economy in Jiangsu province and to analyze the efficiency of the low-carbon economy in Jiangsu and other provinces, compared both advantages and disadvantages. And then this paper put forward some advices for the government to formulate the correct development policy of low-carbon economy, to improve the technology innovation capacity and the efficiency of resource allocation.

Keywords: Eco-efficiency ratio, Jiangsu, China, low-carbon economy.

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2729 Measuring Relative Efficiency of Korean Construction Company using DEA/Window

Authors: Jung-Lo Park, Sung-Sik Kim, Sun-Young Choi, Ju-Hyung Kim, Jae-Jun Kim

Abstract:

Sub-prime mortgage crisis which began in the US is regarded as the most economic crisis since the Great Depression in the early 20th century. Especially, hidden problems on efficient operation of a business were disclosed at a time and many financial institutions went bankrupt and filed for court receivership. The collapses of physical market lead to bankruptcy of manufacturing and construction businesses. This study is to analyze dynamic efficiency of construction businesses during the five years at the turn of the global financial crisis. By discovering the trend and stability of efficiency of a construction business, this study-s objective is to improve management efficiency of a construction business in the ever-changing construction market. Variables were selected by analyzing corporate information on top 20 construction businesses in Korea and analyzed for static efficiency in 2008 and dynamic efficiency between 2006 and 2010. Unlike other studies, this study succeeded in deducing efficiency trend and stability of a construction business for five years by using the DEA/Window model. Using the analysis result, efficient and inefficient companies could be figured out. In addition, relative efficiency among DMU was measured by comparing the relationship between input and output variables of construction businesses. This study can be used as a literature to improve management efficiency for companies with low efficiency based on efficiency analysis of construction businesses.

Keywords: Construction Company, DEA, DEA/Window, Efficiency Analysis

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2728 Application of Neural Networks for 24-Hour-Ahead Load Forecasting

Authors: Fatemeh Mosalman Yazdi

Abstract:

One of the most important requirements for the operation and planning activities of an electrical utility is the prediction of load for the next hour to several days out, known as short term load forecasting. This paper presents the development of an artificial neural network based short-term load forecasting model. The model can forecast daily load profiles with a load time of one day for next 24 hours. In this method can divide days of year with using average temperature. Groups make according linearity rate of curve. Ultimate forecast for each group obtain with considering weekday and weekend. This paper investigates effects of temperature and humidity on consuming curve. For forecasting load curve of holidays at first forecast pick and valley and then the neural network forecast is re-shaped with the new data. The ANN-based load models are trained using hourly historical. Load data and daily historical max/min temperature and humidity data. The results of testing the system on data from Yazd utility are reported.

Keywords: Artificial neural network, Holiday forecasting, pickand valley load forecasting, Short-term load-forecasting.

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2727 Modeling of Sensitivity for SPR Biosensors- New Aspects

Authors: Volodymyr Chegel

Abstract:

The computer modeling is carried out for parameter of sensitivity of optoelectronic chemical and biosensors, using phenomena of surface plasmon resonance (SPR). The physical model of SPR-sensor-s is described with (or without) of modifications of sensitive gold film surface by a dielectric layer. The variants of increasing of sensitivity for SPR-biosensors, constructed on the principle gold – dielectric – biomolecular layer are considered. Two methods of mathematical treatment of SPR-curve are compared – traditional, with estimation of sensor-s response as shift of the SPRcurve minimum and proposed, for system with dielectric layer, using calculating of the derivative in the point of SPR-curve half-width.

Keywords: Surface Plasmon Resonance, modeling, sensitivity, biosensor

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2726 The Use of S Curves in Technology Forecasting and its Application On 3D TV Technology

Authors: Gizem Intepe, Tufan Koc

Abstract:

S-Curves are commonly used in technology forecasting. They show the paths of product performance in relation to time or investment in R&D. It is a useful tool to describe the inflection points and the limit of improvement of a technology. Companies use this information to base their innovation strategies. However inadequate use and some limitations of this technique lead to problems in decision making. In this paper first technology forecasting and its importance for company level strategies will be discussed. Secondly the S-Curve and its place among other forecasting techniques will be introduced. Thirdly its use in technology forecasting will be discussed based on its advantages, disadvantages and limitations. Finally an application of S-curve on 3D TV technology using patent data will also be presented and the results will be discussed.

Keywords: Patent analysis, Technological forecasting. S curves, 3D TV

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2725 Cryptanalysis of Chang-Chang-s EC-PAKA Protocol for Wireless Mobile Networks

Authors: Hae-Soon Ahn, Eun-Jun Yoon

Abstract:

With the rapid development of wireless mobile communication, applications for mobile devices must focus on network security. In 2008, Chang-Chang proposed security improvements on the Lu et al.-s elliptic curve authentication key agreement protocol for wireless mobile networks. However, this paper shows that Chang- Chang-s improved protocol is still vulnerable to off-line password guessing attacks unlike their claims.

Keywords: Authentication, key agreement, wireless mobile networks, elliptic curve, password guessing attacks.

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2724 Comparative Analysis of the Stochastic and Parsimonious Interest Rates Models on Croatian Government Market

Authors: Zdravka Aljinović, Branka Marasović, Blanka Škrabić

Abstract:

The paper provides a discussion of the most relevant aspects of yield curve modeling. Two classes of models are considered: stochastic and parsimonious function based, through the approaches developed by Vasicek (1977) and Nelson and Siegel (1987). Yield curve estimates for Croatia are presented and their dynamics analyzed and finally, a comparative analysis of models is conducted.

Keywords: the term structure of interest rates, Vasicek model, Nelson-Siegel model, Croatian Government market.

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