Search results for: Risk approach

Authors: M. M. Mortula

Abstract:

Bottle water is getting very popular all through the world; especially in the gulf countries as the main source of drinking water. However, concerns over leaching of toxic chemicals are increasing. In this study, a health risk assessment was conducted in accordance with the guidelines indicated by United States Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA). It is conducted based on leaching of Diethyl Phthalate (DEP) from Polyethylene terephthalate (PET). The toxicity and exposure assessment of diethyl phthalate was conducted to characterize its risk on human health. Risk management is also discussed.

Keywords: Toxicity, diethyl phthalate, PET, risk Assessment.

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Authors: Abdullahi Mohamud Sharif, Mohd. Zaidi Abd. Rozan

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Risk Assessment Tool (RAT) is an expert system that assesses, monitors, and gives preliminary treatments automatically based on the project plan. In this paper, a review was taken out for the current project time management risk assessment tools for SME software development projects, analyze risk assessment parameters, conditions, scenarios, and finally propose risk assessment tool (RAT) model to assess, treat, and monitor risks. An implementation prototype system is developed to validate the model.

Keywords: Project Time Management, Risk Assessment Tool(RAT), Small and Medium Enterprises (SME).

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Authors: Jawad Makki, Anne-Marie Alquier, Violaine Prince

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In this paper we propose an NLP-based method for Ontology Population from texts and apply it to semi automatic instantiate a Generic Knowledge Base (Generic Domain Ontology) in the risk management domain. The approach is semi-automatic and uses a domain expert intervention for validation. The proposed approach relies on a set of Instances Recognition Rules based on syntactic structures, and on the predicative power of verbs in the instantiation process. It is not domain dependent since it heavily relies on linguistic knowledge. A description of an experiment performed on a part of the ontology of the PRIMA1 project (supported by the European community) is given. A first validation of the method is done by populating this ontology with Chemical Fact Sheets from Environmental Protection Agency2. The results of this experiment complete the paper and support the hypothesis that relying on the predicative power of verbs in the instantiation process improves the performance.

Keywords: Information Extraction, Instance Recognition Rules, Ontology Population, Risk Management, Semantic analysis.

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Authors: Esad Kadušić, Petar Bojović, Amela Žgalj

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Mobile banking services present a unique growth opportunity for mobile operators in emerging markets, and have already made good progress in bringing financial services to the previously unbanked populations of many developing countries. The potential is amazing, but what about the risks? In the complex process of establishing a mobile banking business model, many kinds of risks and factors need to be monitored and well-managed. Risk identification is the first stage of risk management. Correct risk identification ensures risk management effectiveness. Keeping the risks low makes it possible to use the full potential of mobile banking and carry out the planned business strategy. The focus should be on adoption of consumers which is the main risk factor of mobile banking services.

Keywords: Consumer Adoption, Mobile Banking, Risk

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Authors: Safia Hocine, Zina Benouaret, Djamil A¨ıssani

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In this paper, we study the performance of the strong stability method of the univariate classical risk model. We interest to the stability bounds established using two approaches. The first based on the strong stability method developed for a general Markov chains. The second approach based on the regenerative processes theory . By adopting an algorithmic procedure, we study the performance of the stability method in the case of exponential distribution claim amounts. After presenting numerically and graphically the stability bounds, an interpretation and comparison of the results have been done.

Keywords: Markov Chain, regenerative processes, risk models, ruin probability, strong stability.

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Authors: P. Beraldi, M. E. Bruni

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Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) is one of the most widely used technique for evaluating the relative efficiency of a set of homogeneous decision making units. Traditionally, it assumes that input and output variables are known in advance, ignoring the critical issue of data uncertainty. In this paper, we deal with the problem of efficiency evaluation under uncertain conditions by adopting the general framework of the stochastic programming. We assume that output parameters are represented by discretely distributed random variables and we propose two different models defined according to a neutral and risk-averse perspective. The models have been validated by considering a real case study concerning the evaluation of the technical efficiency of a sample of individual firms operating in the Italian leather manufacturing industry. Our findings show the validity of the proposed approach as ex-ante evaluation technique by providing the decision maker with useful insights depending on his risk aversion degree.

Keywords: DEA, Stochastic Programming, Ex-ante evaluation technique, Conditional Value at Risk.

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Authors: B. Salmasian, A. Rabiee, T. Yousefzadeh

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In this research, the risk assessment of radiation hazard for the Research Nuclear Reactor has been studied. In the current study, the MCNPx computational code has been used and coupled with a developed program using MATLAB software to evaluate Total Effective Dose Equivalent (TEDE) and cancer risk according to the BEIR equations for various human organs. In this study, the risk assessment of cancer has been calculated for ten years after exposure, in each of body organs of different ages and sexes. Also, the risk assessment of cancer has been calculated in each of body organs of different ages and sexes due to exposure after the retirement of the reactor staff. According to obtained results, a conservative whole-body dose rate, during a year, is 0.261 Sv and the probability the cancer risk for women is more than men and for children is more than adults. It has been shown that thyroid cancer was more possible than others.

Keywords: MCNPx code, BEIR equation, equivalent dose, risk analysis.

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Authors: Lenka Jesonkova, Frantisek Bozek

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Trihalogenmethanes (THMs) are disinfection byproducts with non-carcinogenic and genotoxic effects. The contamination of 6 sites close to the water treatment plant has been monitored in second largest city of the Czech Republic. Health risk assessment including both non-carcinogenic and genotoxic risk for long term exposition was realized using the critical concentrations. Concentrations of trihalogenmethanes met national standards in all samples. Risk assessment proved that health risks from trihalogenmethanes are acceptable on each site.

Keywords: Drinking water, health risk assessment, trihalogenmethanes, water pollution.

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Authors: Mohsen Shirani, Shadi Asadzandi, Micaela Demichela

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This paper presents the results of a study to assess crucial aspects and the strength of the scientific basis of a typically interdisciplinary, applied field: food supply chain risk assessment research. Our approach is based on an advanced scientometrics analysis that is a quantitative study of the disciplines of science based on published literature to measure interdisciplinary. This paper aims to describe the quantity and quality of the publication trends in food supply chain risk assessment. The publication under study was composed of 266 articles from database web of science. The results were analyzed based on date of publication, type of document, language of the documents, source of publications, subject areas, authors and their affiliations, and the countries involved in developing the articles.

Keywords: Food Supply Chain, Risk Assessment, Scientometrics, Web of science.

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Authors: T. Delval, C. Sauvage, Q. Jullien, R. Viano, T. Diallo, B. Collignan, G. Picinbono

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In the context of the international spread of COVID-19, the Centre Scientifique et Technique du Bâtiment (CSTB) has led a joint research with the French government authorities Hauts-de-Seine department, to analyse the risk in school spaces according to their configuration, ventilation system and spatial segmentation strategy. This paper describes the main results of this joint research. A multidisciplinary team involving experts in indoor air quality/ventilation, pedestrian movements and IT domains was established to develop a COVID risk analysis tool based on Building Information Model. The work started with specific analysis on two pilot schools in order to provide for the local administration specifications to minimize the spread of the virus. Different recommendations were published to optimize/validate the use of ventilation systems and the strategy of student occupancy and student flow segmentation within the building. This COVID expertise has been digitized in order to manage a quick risk analysis on the entire building that could be used by the public administration through an easy user interface implemented in a free BIM Management software. One of the most interesting results is to enable a dynamic comparison of different ventilation system scenarios and space occupation strategy inside the BIM model. This concurrent engineering approach provides users with the optimal solution according to both ventilation and pedestrian flow expertise.

Keywords: BIM, knowledge management, system expert, risk management, indoor ventilation, pedestrian movement, integrated design.

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Authors: Yen-Chieh Wen, Ching-Hui Lin

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The main purpose of this study is to analyze climbers involved in motivation and risk perception and analysis of the predictive ability of the risk perception "mountaineering" involved in motivation. This study used questionnaires, to have to climb the 3000m high mountain in Taiwan climbers object to carry out an investigation in order to non-random sampling, a total of 231 valid questionnaires were. After statistical analysis, the study found that: 1. Climbers the highest climbers involved in motivation "to enjoy the natural beauty of the fun. 2 climbers for climbers "risk perception" the highest: the natural environment of risk. 3. Climbers “seeking adventure stimulate", “competence achievement" motivation highly predictive of risk perception. Based on these findings, this study not only practices the recommendations of the outdoor leisure industry, and also related research proposals for future researchers.

Keywords: Mountaineering, motivation, risk perception, decision-making.

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Authors: Imen Dhaou

Abstract:

This study examines conditional Value at Risk by applying the GJR-EVT-Copula model, and finds the optimal portfolio for eight Dow Jones Islamic-conventional pairs. Our methodology consists of modeling the data by a bivariate GJR-GARCH model in which we extract the filtered residuals and then apply the Peak over threshold model (POT) to fit the residual tails in order to model marginal distributions. After that, we use pair-copula to find the optimal portfolio risk dependence structure. Finally, with Monte Carlo simulations, we estimate the Value at Risk (VaR) and the conditional Value at Risk (CVaR). The empirical results show the VaR and CVaR values for an equally weighted portfolio of Dow Jones Islamic-conventional pairs. In sum, we found that the optimal investment focuses on Islamic-conventional US Market index pairs because of high investment proportion; however, all other index pairs have low investment proportion. These results deliver some real repercussions for portfolio managers and policymakers concerning to optimal asset allocations, portfolio risk management and the diversification advantages of these markets.

Keywords: CVaR, Dow Jones Islamic index, GJR-GARCH-EVT-pair copula, portfolio optimization.

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Authors: M. Kamal Elbokl, Negadi Kheira

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Risk Evaluation is an important step in protecting your workers and your business, as well as complying with the law. It helps you focus on the risks that really matter in your workplace – the ones with the potential to cause real harm. We are in this paper introduce basics of risk assessment then we mention some of ways to risk evaluation by computer especially Monte Carlo simulation and Microsoft project.

We use Program Evaluation and Review Technique (PERT) to deal with Risks in Industrial Facilities in Evaluation and Assessment for this risk. Using PERT Technique in Microsoft Project by the PERT toolbar and using PERTMASTER Program with Primavera Program we evaluate many hazards and make calculations for that by mathematical equation to make right decisions. We define and calculate risk factor and risk severity to ranking the type of the risk then dealing with it using in that many ways like probability computation, curves, and tables. By introducing variables in the equation of functions in computer programs we calculate the risk in the time and the cost in general case and then mention some examples in industrial facilities field.

Keywords: Risk, Industrial Facilities, PERT, Monte Carlo Simulation.

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Authors: Fauziah Hanim Tafri, Zarinah Hamid, Ahamed Kameel Mydin Meera, Mohd Azmi Omar

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This paper examines the relationship between financial risks and profitability of the conventional and Islamic banks in Malaysia for the period between 1996 and 2005. The measures of profitability that have been used in the study are the return on equity (ROE) and return on assets (ROA) while the financial risks are credit risk, interest rate risk and liquidity risks. This study employs panel data regression analysis of Generalised Least Squares of fixed effects and random effects models. It was found that credit risk has a significant impact on ROA and ROE for the conventional as well as the Islamic banks. The relationship between interest rate risk and ROE were found to be weakly significant for the conventional banks and insignificant for the Islamic banks. The effect of interest rate risk on ROA is significant for the conventional banks. Liquidity risk was found to have an insignificant impact on both profitability measures.

Keywords: Credit risk, interest rate risk, liquidity risk, market risk, profitability.

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Authors: Korbi Fakhri

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In this article, we have elaborated a study over the nature of financial intermediation in Islamic banks by comparison to those of conventional ones. We have found a striking difference between two kinds of intermediation. We tried, from another side, to study the relationship between the capital level and deficiency risk relying on econometric model, and we have obtained a positive and significant relation between the capital and the deficiency risk for the conventional banks. This means that when the capital of these banks increases, the deficiency risk increases as well. In return, since the Islamic banks are constrained to respect the Sharia Committee as well as customers’ demands that may, in certain contracts, choose to invest their capitals in projects they are interested in. These constraints have as effects to reduce the deficiency risk even when the capital increases.

Keywords: Conventional bank, deficiency risk, financial intermediation, Islamic bank.

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Authors: Guillermo Vilalta, Félix Nieto, Carlos Vaquero, José A. Vilalta

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Abdominal aortic aneurysms rupture (AAAs) is one of the main causes of death in the world. This is a very complex phenomenon that usually occurs “without previous warning". Currently, criteria to assess the aneurysm rupture risk (peak diameter and growth rate) can not be considered as reliable indicators. In a first approach, the main geometric parameters of aneurysms have been linked into five biomechanical factors. These are combined to obtain a dimensionless rupture risk index, RI(t), which has been validated preliminarily with a clinical case and others from literature. This quantitative indicator is easy to understand, it allows estimating the aneurysms rupture risks and it is expected to be able to identify the one in aneurysm whose peak diameter is less than the threshold value. Based on initial results, a broader study has begun with twelve patients from the Clinic Hospital of Valladolid-Spain, which are submitted to periodic follow-up examinations.

Keywords: AAA, rupture risk prediction, biomechanical factors, AAA geometric characterization.

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Authors: A. Fathianpour, M. B. Jelodar, S. Wilkinson

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This paper outlines the approaches taken to assess multi-hazard assessments. There is currently confusion in assessing multi-hazard impacts, and so this study aims to determine which of the available options are the most useful. The paper uses an international literature search, and analysis of current multi-hazard assessments and a case study to illustrate the effectiveness of the chosen method. Findings from this study will help those wanting to assess multi-hazards to undertake a straightforward approach. The paper is significant as it helps to interpret the various approaches and concludes with the preferred method. Many people in the world live in hazardous environments and are susceptible to disasters. Unfortunately, when a disaster strikes it is often compounded by additional cascading hazards, thus people would confront more than one hazard simultaneously. Hazards include natural hazards (earthquakes, floods, etc.) or cascading human-made hazards (for example, Natural Hazard Triggering Technological disasters (Natech) such as fire, explosion, toxic release). Multi-hazards have a more destructive impact on urban areas than one hazard alone. In addition, climate change is creating links between different disasters such as causing landslide dams and debris flows leading to more destructive incidents. Much of the prevailing literature deals with only one hazard at a time. However, recently sophisticated multi-hazard assessments have started to appear. Given that multi-hazards occur, it is essential to take multi-hazard risk assessment under consideration. This paper aims to review the multi-hazard assessment methods through articles published to date and categorize the strengths and disadvantages of using these methods in risk assessment. Napier City is selected as a case study to demonstrate the necessity of using multi-hazard risk assessments. In order to assess multi-hazard risk assessments, first, the current multi-hazard risk assessment methods were described. Next, the drawbacks of these multi-hazard risk assessments were outlined. Finally, the improvements to current multi-hazard risk assessments to date were summarised. Generally, the main problem of multi-hazard risk assessment is to make a valid assumption of risk from the interactions of different hazards. Currently, risk assessment studies have started to assess multi-hazard situations, but drawbacks such as uncertainty and lack of data show the necessity for more precise risk assessment. It should be noted that ignoring or partial considering multi-hazards in risk assessment will lead to an overestimate or overlook in resilient and recovery action managements.

Keywords: Cascading hazards, multi-hazard, risk assessment, risk reduction.

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Authors: Thitaporn Thoopputra, Tipaporn Pongmesa, Shuchuen Li

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Aims: To evaluate the application of non-invasive diabetes risk assessment tool in community pharmacy setting. Methods: Thai diabetes risk score was applied to assess individuals at risk of developing type 2 diabetes. Interactive computer-based risk screening (IT) and paper-based risk screening (PT) tools were applied. Participants aged over 25 years with no known diabetes were recruited in six participating pharmacies. Results: A total of 187 clients, mean aged (+SD) was 48.6 (+10.9) years. 35% were at high risk. The mean value of willingness-to-pay for the service fee in IT group was significantly higher than PT group (p=0.013). No significant difference observed for the satisfaction between groups. Conclusions: Non-invasive risk assessment tool, whether paper-based or computerized-based can be applied in community pharmacy to support the enhancing role of pharmacists in chronic disease management. Long term follow up is needed to determine the impact of its application in clinical, humanistic and economic outcomes.

Keywords: Community pharmacy, intervention, prevention, risk assessment, type 2 diabetes.

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Authors: James A. Nelson

Abstract:

The history of technology and banking is examined as it relates to risk and technological determinism. It is proposed that the services that banks offer are determined by technology and that banks must adopt new technologies to be competitive. The adoption of technologies paradoxically forces the adoption of other new technologies to protect the bank from the increased risk of technology. This cycle will lead to bank examiners and regulators to focus on human behavior, not on the ever changing technology.

Keywords: Banking, information security, risk, technologicaldeterminism.

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Authors: Luc Cessieux, French Navy, Adrien Derock, DCNS/IMATH

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Security risk models have been successful in estimating the likelihood of attack for simple security threats. However, modeling complex system and their security risk is even a challenge. Many methods have been proposed to face this problem. Often difficult to manipulate, and not enough all-embracing they are not as famous as they should with administrators and deciders. We propose in this paper a new tool to model big systems on purpose. The software, takes into account attack threats and security strength.

Keywords: Security, risk management, threat, modelization.

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Authors: Nermin Ozgulbas, Ali Serhan Koyuncugil

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One of the biggest problems of SMEs is their tendencies to financial distress because of insufficient finance background. In this study, an Early Warning System (EWS) model based on data mining for financial risk detection is presented. CHAID algorithm has been used for development of the EWS. Developed EWS can be served like a tailor made financial advisor in decision making process of the firms with its automated nature to the ones who have inadequate financial background. Besides, an application of the model implemented which covered 7,853 SMEs based on Turkish Central Bank (TCB) 2007 data. By using EWS model, 31 risk profiles, 15 risk indicators, 2 early warning signals, and 4 financial road maps has been determined for financial risk mitigation.

Keywords: Early Warning Systems, Data Mining, Financial Risk, SMEs.

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Authors: Zina Benouaret, Djamil Aissani

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In this work, we introduce the qualitative and quantitative concept of the strong stability method in the risk process modeling two lines of business of the same insurance company or an insurance and re-insurance companies that divide between them both claims and premiums with a certain proportion. The approach proposed is based on the identification of the ruin probability associate to the model considered, with a stationary distribution of a Markov random process called a reversed process. Our objective, after clarifying the condition and the perturbation domain of parameters, is to obtain the stability inequality of the ruin probability which is applied to estimate the approximation error of a model with disturbance parameters by the considered model. In the stability bound obtained, all constants are explicitly written.

Keywords: Markov chain, risk models, ruin probabilities, strong stability analysis.

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Authors: Razan Salem

Abstract:

Men and women have different approaches towards investing, both in terms of strategies and risk attitudes. This study aims to focus mainly on investigating the financial risk behaviors of Arab women investors and to examine the financial risk tolerance levels of Arab women relative to Arab men investors. Using survey data on 547 Arab men and women investors, the results of Wilcoxon Signed-Rank (One-Sample) test Mann-Whitney U test reveal that Arab women are risk-averse investors and have lower financial risk tolerance levels relative to Arab men. Such findings can be explained by the fact of women's nature and lower investment literacy levels. Further, the current political uncertainty in the Arab region may be considered as another explanation of Arab women’s risk aversion behavior. The study's findings support the existing literature by validating the stereotype of “women are more risk-averse than men” in the Arab region. Overall, when it comes to investment and financial behaviors, women around the world behave similarly.

Keywords: Arab region, financial risk behavior, gender differences, women investors.

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Authors: Ehsan Bashiri

Abstract:

A 7-step method (with 25 sub-steps) to assess risk of air pollutants is introduced. These steps are: pre-considerations, sampling, statistical analysis, exposure matrix and likelihood, doseresponse matrix and likelihood, total risk evaluation, and discussion of findings. All mentioned words and expressions are wellunderstood; however, almost all steps have been modified, improved, and coupled in such a way that a comprehensive method has been prepared. Accordingly, the SADRA (Statistical Analysis-Driven Risk Assessment) emphasizes extensive and ongoing application of analytical statistics in traditional risk assessment models. A Sulfur Dioxide case study validates the claim and provides a good illustration for this method.

Keywords: Criteria air pollutants, Matrix of risk, Riskassessment, Statistical analysis.

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Authors: Pulak Swain, A. K. Ojha

Abstract:

Portfolio optimization is based on dealing with the problems of efficient asset allocation. Risk and Expected return are two conflicting criteria in such problems, where the investor prefers the return to be high and the risk to be low. Using multi-objective approach we can solve those type of problems. However the information which we have for the input parameters are generally ambiguous and the input values can fluctuate around some nominal values. We can not ignore the uncertainty in input values, as they can affect the asset allocation drastically. So we use Robust Optimization approach to the problems where the input parameters comes under box uncertainty. In this paper, we solve the multi criteria robust problem with the help of  E- constraint method.

Keywords: Portfolio optimization, multi-objective optimization, E-constraint method, box uncertainty, robust optimization.

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Authors: Aparna Viswanath

Abstract:

Electricity spot prices are highly volatile under optimal generation capacity scenarios due to factors such as nonstorability of electricity, peak demand at certain periods, generator outages, fuel uncertainty for renewable energy generators, huge investments and time needed for generation capacity expansion etc. As a result market participants are exposed to price and volume risk, which has led to the development of risk management practices. This paper provides an overview of risk management practices by market participants in electricity markets using financial derivatives.

Keywords: Financial Derivatives, Forward, Futures, Options, Risk Management.

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Authors: Daniel F. García, Adrián Fernández

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Today, computer systems are more and more complex and support growing security risks. The security managers need to find effective security risk assessment methodologies that allow modeling well the increasing complexity of current computer systems but also maintaining low the complexity of the assessment procedure. This paper provides a brief analysis of common security risk assessment methodologies leading to the selection of a proper methodology to fulfill these requirements. Then, a detailed analysis of the most effective methodology is accomplished, presenting numerical examples to demonstrate how easy it is to use.

Keywords: Computer security, qualitative and quantitative methods, risk assessment methodologies, security risk assessment.

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Authors: Chih-Hsiang Chang, Fang-Jyun Su

Abstract:

This paper explores whether stock characteristics influence the herding formation among investors in the US equity market. To extend the research scope of the existing literature, this paper further examines the role that stock risk characteristics play in the US equity market, and the way they influence investors’ decision-making. First, empirical results show that whether general stocks or high-risk stocks, there are no herding behaviors among the investors in the US equity market during the whole research period or during four great events. Moreover, stock characteristics have great influence on investors’ trading decisions. Finally, there is a bidirectional lead-lag relationship of the herding formation between high-risk stocks and low-risk stocks, but the influence of high-risk stocks on the low-risk stocks is stronger than that of low-risk stocks on the high-risk stocks.

Keywords: Stock characteristics, herding formation, investment decision, US equity market, lead-lag relationship.

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Authors: Martin Henkel

Abstract:

Different forms of interaction are an integral part of modern courses. Traditional courses held on-campus might focus on teacher-student interaction, or student-student interaction, or both. However when these traditional on-campus courses are to be held as distance courses there is a risk that these well-designed interactions will be difficult or impossible to uphold. For example, studentstudent interaction in traditional project assignments might not work well if the students are scattered across the world. Thus, even a welldesigned traditional on-site course cannot without modification be turned into a distance course. Traditional on-site courses simply have to be redesigned to become true distance courses. This paper describes a structured approach which facilitates the redesign of a traditional course into a distance course. The approach is based on that the desired forms of course flexibility are identified, and thereafter that the course activities are redesigned to facilitate interaction in a distance course. The approach is making use of known patterns of pedagogic interaction and existing guidelines for distance education design. The approach is illustrated with an example course in the field of information systems design.

Keywords: Distance education, interaction in education, course design.

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Authors: Nina V. Zaitseva, Pavel Z. Shur, Nina G. Atiskova

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Nowadays harmonization of sanitary and hygienic standards of environmental quality with international standards is crucial part of integration of Russia into the international community. Harmonization of Russian and international ambient air quality standards may be realized by risk-based standards development. In this paper approaches to risk-based standards development and examples of these approaches implementation are presented.

Keywords: Harmonization, health risk assessment, evolutionary modelling, benchmark level, nickel, manganese.

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