Search results for: model reference adaptive system (MRAS)

Authors: Xinyan Zhang, Zhipeng Tan, Shan Fan

Abstract:

The first layer of defense against data loss is the backup data. This paper implements an agent-based network backup system used the backup, server-storage and server-backup agent these tripartite construction, and the snapshot and hierarchical index are used in the NSBS. It realizes the control command and data flow separation, balances the system load, thereby improving efficiency of the system backup and recovery. The test results show the agent-based network backup system can effectively improve the task-based concurrency, reasonably allocate network bandwidth, the system backup performance loss costs smaller and improves data recovery efficiency by 20%.

Keywords: Agent, network backup system, three architecture model, NSBS.

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Authors: Burak Yildirim, Muhsin Tunay Gençoğlu

Abstract:

A microgrid (MG) is a small power grid composed of localized medium or low level power generation, storage systems, and loads. In this paper, the effects of a MG on power systems voltage stability are shown. The MG model, designed to demonstrate the effects of the MG, was applied to the IEEE 14 bus power system which is widely used in power system stability studies. Eigenvalue and modal analysis methods were used in simulation studies. In the study results, it is seen that MGs affect system voltage stability positively by increasing system voltage instability limit value for buses of a power system in which MG are placed.

Keywords: Eigenvalue analysis, microgrid, modal analysis, voltage stability.

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Authors: Ahed Abugabah, Louis Sanzogni

Abstract:

ERP systems are the largest software applications adopted by universities, along with quite significant investments in their implementation. However, unlike other applications little research has been conducted regarding these systems in a university environment. This paper aims at providing a critical review of previous research in ERP system in higher education with a special focus on higher education in Australia. The research not only forms the basis of an evaluation of previous research and research needs, it also makes inroads in identifying the payoff of ERPs in the sector from different perspectives with particular reference to the user. The paper is divided into two parts, the first part focuses on ERP literature in higher education at large, while the second focuses on ERP literature in higher education in Australia.

Keywords: Enterprise resource planning system, higher education, implementation, user level.

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Authors: Yeonjeong Lee, Kyoung-jae Kim, Youngtae Kim

Abstract:

This study proposes a novel recommender system that uses data mining and multi-model ensemble techniques to enhance the recommendation performance through reflecting the precise user’s preference. The proposed model consists of two steps. In the first step, this study uses logistic regression, decision trees, and artificial neural networks to predict customers who have high likelihood to purchase products in each product group. Then, this study combines the results of each predictor using the multi-model ensemble techniques such as bagging and bumping. In the second step, this study uses the market basket analysis to extract association rules for co-purchased products. Finally, the system selects customers who have high likelihood to purchase products in each product group and recommends proper products from same or different product groups to them through above two steps. We test the usability of the proposed system by using prototype and real-world transaction and profile data. In addition, we survey about user satisfaction for the recommended product list from the proposed system and the randomly selected product lists. The results also show that the proposed system may be useful in real-world online shopping store.

Keywords: Product recommender system, Ensemble technique, Association rules, Decision tree, Artificial neural networks.

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Authors: B. Selma, S. Chouraqui

Abstract:

The pancreas is an elongated organ that extends across the abdomen, below the stomach. In addition, it secretes certain enzymes that aid in food digestion. The pancreas also manufactures hormones responsible for regulating blood glucose levels. In the present paper, we propose a mathematical model to study the homeostasis of glucose and insulin in healthy human, and a simulation of this model, which depicts the physiological events after a meal, will be represented in ordinary humans. The aim of this paper is to design an algorithm which regulates the level of glucose in the blood. The algorithm applied the concept of expert system for performing an algorithm control in the form of an "active" used to prescribe the rate of insulin infusion. By decomposing the system into subsystems, we have developed parametric models of each subsystem by using a forcing function strategy. The results showed a performance of the control system.

Keywords: Modeling, algorithm, regulation, glucose-insulin, blood, control system.

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Authors: C. Ardil

Abstract:

This paper presents a software product quality evaluation model based on the ISO/IEC 25010 quality model. The evaluation characteristics and sub characteristics were identified from the ISO/IEC 25010 quality model. The multidimensional structure of the quality model is based on characteristics such as functional suitability, performance efficiency, compatibility, usability, reliability, security, maintainability, and portability, and associated sub characteristics. Random numbers are generated to establish the decision maker’s importance weights for each sub characteristics. Also, random numbers are generated to establish the decision matrix of the decision maker’s final scores for each software product against each sub characteristics. Thus, objective criteria importance weights and index scores for datasets were obtained from the random numbers. In the proposed model, five different software product quality evaluation datasets under three different weight vectors were applied to multiple criteria decision analysis method, preference analysis for reference ideal solution (PARIS) for comparison, and sensitivity analysis procedure. This study contributes to provide a better understanding of the application of MCDMA methods and ISO/IEC 25010 quality model guidelines in software product quality evaluation process.

Keywords: ISO/IEC 25010 quality model, multiple criteria decisions making, multiple criteria decision making analysis, MCDMA, PARIS, Software Product Quality Evaluation Model, Software Product Quality Evaluation, Software Evaluation, Software Selection, Software

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Authors: Hyun-Kyu Kang

Abstract:

The Korean Government has applied the preliminary feasibility study to new government R&D program plans as a part of an evaluation system for R&D programs. The preliminary feasibility study for the R&D program is composed of 3 major criteria such as technological, policy and economic analysis. The program logic model approach is used as a part of the technological analysis in the preliminary feasibility study. We has developed and improved the R&D program logic model. The logic model is a very useful tool for evaluating R&D program plans. Using a logic model, we can generally identify important factors of the R&D program plan, analyze its logic flow and find the disconnection or jump in the logic flow among components of the logic model.

Keywords: Preliminary feasibility study, R&D program logic model, technological analysis.

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Authors: Nooshin Salari, Viliam Makis, Jane Doe

Abstract:

This paper presents a maintenance policy for a system consisting of two units. Unit 1 is gradually deteriorating and is subject to soft failure. Unit 2 has a general lifetime distribution and is subject to hard failure. Condition of unit 1 of the system is monitored periodically and it is considered as failed when its deterioration level reaches or exceeds a critical level N. At the failure time of unit 2 system is considered as failed, and unit 2 will be correctively replaced by the next inspection epoch. Unit 1 or 2 are preventively replaced when deterioration level of unit 1 or age of unit 2 exceeds the related preventive maintenance (PM) levels. At the time of corrective or preventive replacement of unit 2, there is an opportunity to replace unit 1 if its deterioration level reaches the opportunistic maintenance (OM) level. If unit 2 fails in an inspection interval, system stops operating although unit 1 has not failed. A mathematical model is derived to find the preventive and opportunistic replacement levels for unit 1 and preventive replacement age for unit 2, that minimize the long run expected average cost per unit time. The problem is formulated and solved in the semi-Markov decision process (SMDP) framework. Numerical example is provided to illustrate the performance of the proposed model and the comparison of the proposed model with an optimal policy without opportunistic maintenance level for unit 1 is carried out.

Keywords: Condition-based maintenance, opportunistic maintenance, preventive maintenance, two-unit system.

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Authors: Ying Wang

Abstract:

Service trade is an important force of influencing economic development. A review on the related literatures is done firstly. Then through the construction of a Diamond Model, the main factors which influence the competitiveness of Chinese service trade are determined. With three competitiveness indexes served as the reference series respectively, the influencing factors served as the comparable series, three grey incidence models are then built up to conduct an empirical analysis on the main factors influencing the competitiveness of service trade after China entering WTO. The result indicates that urbanization level, open degree of service industry and foreign direct investment have larger impacts on Chinese service trade competitiveness, followed in turn by GDP in service industry and human capital, while commodity trade has the minimum impact. Further discussion provides train of thought for the upgrade of Chinese service trade competitiveness.

Keywords: Service Trade, Competitiveness, Diamond Model, Grey Incidence Model.

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Authors: Catherine Maware, Olufemi Adetunji

Abstract:

The paper is aimed at developing a model to measure the impact of Lean manufacturing deployment on organizational performance. The model will help industry practitioners to assess the impact of implementing Lean constructs on organizational performance. It will also harmonize the measurement models of Lean performance with the house of Lean that seems to have become the industry standard. The sheer number of measurement models for impact assessment of Lean implementation makes it difficult for new adopters to select an appropriate assessment model or deployment methodology. A literature review is conducted to classify the Lean performance model. Pareto analysis is used to select the Lean constructs for the development of the model. The model is further formalized through the use of Structural Equation Modeling (SEM) in defining the underlying latent structure of a Lean system. An impact assessment measurement model developed can be used to measure Lean performance and can be adopted by different industries.

Keywords: Impact measurement model, lean bundles, lean manufacturing, organizational performance.

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Authors: M. Nageswara Rao, N. Sumathi, V. S. N. K. Chaitanya

Abstract:

In electrical power system, high voltage insulators are necessary for consistent performance. All insulators are exposed to different mechanical and electrical stresses. Mechanical stresses occur due to various loads such as wind load, hardware and conductors weight. Electrical stresses are due to over voltages and operating voltages. The performance analysis of polymer insulators is an essential, as most of the electrical utility companies are employing polymer insulators for new and updated transmission lines. In this paper, electric field is analyzed for 400 kV silicone (SiR) composite insulator by COULOMB 3D software based on boundary element method. The field results are compared with EPRI reference values. Our results proved that values at critical regions are very less compared to EPRI reference values. And also experimentally 400 kV single V suspension string is evaluated as per IEC standards.

Keywords: Electric field analysis, silicone composite insulator, boundary element method, RIV, Corona.

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Authors: Wook-Won Kim, Je-Seok Shin, Jin-O Kim

Abstract:

As the penetration of Energy Storage System (ESS) increases in the power system due to higher performance and lower cost than ever, ESS is expanding its role to the ancillary service as well as the storage of extra energy from the intermittent renewable energy resources. For multi-ESS with different capacity and SOC level each other, it is required to make the optimal schedule of SOC level use the multi-ESS effectively. This paper proposes the energy allocation method for the multiple battery ESS with reliability constraint, in order to make the ESS discharge the required energy as long as possible. A simple but effective method is proposed in this paper, to satisfy the power for the spinning reserve requirement while improving the system reliability. Modelling of ESS is also proposed, and reliability is evaluated by using the combined reliability model which includes the proposed ESS model and conventional generation one. In the case study, it can be observed that the required power is distributed to each ESS adequately and accordingly, the SOC is scheduled to improve the reliability indices such as Loss of Load Probability (LOLP) and Loss of Load Expectation (LOLE).

Keywords: Multiple energy storage system, energy allocation method, SOC schedule, reliability constraints.

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Authors: İres İskender, Ahmet Karaarslan

Abstract:

In this study, the performance of a high-frequency arc welding machine including a two-switch inverter is analyzed. The control of the system is achieved using two different control techniques i- fuzzy logic control (FLC) ii- state space averaging based sliding control. Fuzzy logic control does not need accurate mathematical model of a plant and can be used in nonlinear applications. The second method needs the mathematical model of the system. In this method the state space equations of the system are derived for two different “on" and “off" states of the switches. The derived state equations are combined with the sliding control rule considering the duty-cycle of the converter. The performance of the system is analyzed by simulating the system using SIMULINK tool box of MATLAB. The simulation results show that fuzzy logic controller is more robust and less sensitive to parameter variations.

Keywords: Fuzzy logic, arc welding, sliding state space control, PWM, current control.

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Authors: Hui-Min Lai, Chin-Pin Chen, Yung-Fu Chang

Abstract:

The expectation-confirmation model (ECM) is one of the most widely used models for evaluating information system continuance, and this model has been extended to other study backgrounds, or expanded with other theoretical perspectives. However, combining ECM with other theories or investigating the background problem may produce some disparities, thus generating inaccurate conclusions. Habit is considered to be an important factor that influences the user’s continuance behavior. This paper thus critically examines seven pairs of relationships from the original ECM and the habit variable. A meta-analysis was used to tackle the development of ECM research over the last 10 years from a range of journals and conference papers published in 2005–2014. Forty-six journal articles and 19 conference papers were selected for analysis. The results confirm our prediction that a high effect size for the seven pairs of relationships was obtained (ranging from r=0.386 to r=0.588). Furthermore, a meta-analytic structural equation modeling was performed to simultaneously test all relationships. The results show that habit had a significant positive effect on continuance intention at p<=0.05 and that the six other pairs of relationships were significant at p<0.10. Based on the findings, we refined our original research model and an alternative model was proposed for understanding and predicting information system continuance. Some theoretical implications are also discussed.

Keywords: Expectation-confirmation theory, expectation- confirmation model, meta-analysis, meta-analytic structural equation modeling.

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Authors: Zdeňka Rendlová

Abstract:

This paper presents the mathematical description of the high-speed rotating system taking into account the influence of internal and external damping. The mathematical model is obtained by using the finite element method. The analyzed system is an automotive turbocharger understood as a rotor-bearing system. The circular cross-section shaft is equipped with one compressor wheel, one turbine wheel and is supported by two floating ring bearings. Based on the model, the dynamical analysis of a turbocharger is performed and stability conditions are evaluated.

Keywords: External damping, internal damping, journal bearing, stability, turbocharger.

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Authors: Mahdi Zolfaghari, Seyed Hossein Hosseinian, Hossein Askarian Abyaneh, Mehrdad Abedi

Abstract:

This paper presents a virtual active power filter (VAPF) using vehicle to grid (V2G) technology to maintain power quality requirements. The optimal discrete operation of the power converter of electric vehicle (EV) is based on recognizing desired switching states using the model predictive control (MPC) algorithm. A fast dynamic response, lower total harmonic distortion (THD) and good reference tracking performance are realized through the presented control strategy. The simulation results using MATLAB/Simulink validate the effectiveness of the scheme in improving power quality as well as good dynamic response in power transferring capability.

Keywords: Virtual active power filter, V2G technology, model predictive control, electric vehicle, power quality.

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Authors: O. Belalia Douma, B. Boukhatem, M. Ghrici

Abstract:

Self-compacting concrete (SCC) developed in Japan in the late 80s has enabled the construction industry to reduce demand on the resources, improve the work condition and also reduce the impact of environment by elimination of the need for compaction. Fuzzy logic (FL) approaches has recently been used to model some of the human activities in many areas of civil engineering applications. Especially from these systems in the model experimental studies, very good results have been obtained. In the present study, a model for predicting compressive strength of SCC containing various proportions of fly ash, as partial replacement of cement has been developed by using Fuzzy Inference System (FIS). For the purpose of building this model, a database of experimental data were gathered from the literature and used for training and testing the model. The used data as the inputs of fuzzy logic models are arranged in a format of five parameters that cover the total binder content, fly ash replacement percentage, water content, superplasticizer and age of specimens. The training and testing results in the fuzzy logic model have shown a strong potential for predicting the compressive strength of SCC containing fly ash in the considered range.

Keywords: Self-compacting concrete, fly ash, strength prediction, fuzzy logic.

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Authors: Ali Zifan, Mohammad Hassan Moradi, Sohrab Saberi, Farzad Towhidkhah

Abstract:

Electrocardiogram (ECG) segmentation is necessary to help reduce the time consuming task of manually annotating ECG-s. Several algorithms have been developed to segment the ECG automatically. We first review several of such methods, and then present a new single lead segmentation method based on Adaptive piecewise constant approximation (APCA) and Piecewise derivative dynamic time warping (PDDTW). The results are tested on the QT database. We compared our results to Laguna-s two lead method. Our proposed approach has a comparable mean error, but yields a slightly higher standard deviation than Laguna-s method.

Keywords: Adaptive Piecewise Constant Approximation, Dynamic programming, ECG segmentation, Piecewise DerivativeDynamic Time Warping.

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Authors: Abdalla Kablan, Joseph Falzon

Abstract:

This paper is motivated by the aspect of uncertainty in financial decision making, and how artificial intelligence and soft computing, with its uncertainty reducing aspects can be used for algorithmic trading applications that trade in high frequency. This paper presents an optimized high frequency trading system that has been combined with various moving averages to produce a hybrid system that outperforms trading systems that rely solely on moving averages. The paper optimizes an adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system that takes both the price and its moving average as input, learns to predict price movements from training data consisting of intraday data, dynamically switches between the best performing moving averages, and performs decision making of when to buy or sell a certain currency in high frequency.

Keywords: Financial decision making, High frequency trading, Adaprive neuro-fuzzy systems, moving average strategy.

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Authors: Alexandre Boum, Salomon Madinatou

Abstract:

This paper aims at bringing a scientific contribution to the cardiac arrhythmia biomedical diagnosis systems; more precisely to the study of the amelioration of cardiac arrhythmia classification performance using artificial neural network, adaptive neuro-fuzzy and fuzzy inference systems classifiers. The purpose of this amelioration is to enable cardiologists to make reliable diagnosis through automatic cardiac arrhythmia analyzes and classifications based on high confidence classifiers. In this study, six classes of the most commonly encountered arrhythmias are considered: the Right Bundle Branch Block, the Left Bundle Branch Block, the Ventricular Extrasystole, the Auricular Extrasystole, the Atrial Fibrillation and the Normal Cardiac rate beat. From the electrocardiogram (ECG) extracted parameters, we constructed a matrix (360x360) serving as an input data sample for the classifiers based on neural networks and a matrix (1x6) for the classifier based on fuzzy logic. By varying three parameters (the quality of the neural network learning, the data size and the quality of the input parameters) the automatic classification permitted us to obtain the following performances: in terms of correct classification rate, 83.6% was obtained using the fuzzy logic based classifier, 99.7% using the neural network based classifier and 99.8% for the adaptive neuro-fuzzy based classifier. These results are based on signals containing at least 360 cardiac cycles. Based on the comparative analysis of the aforementioned three arrhythmia classifiers, the classifiers based on neural networks exhibit a better performance.

Keywords: Adaptive neuro-fuzzy, artificial neural network, cardiac arrythmias, fuzzy inference systems.

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Authors: Changjin Xu, Peiluan Li

Abstract:

In this paper, we study the stability of a fractional order delayed predator-prey model. By using the Laplace transform, we introduce a characteristic equation for the above system. It is shown that if all roots of the characteristic equation have negative parts, then the equilibrium of the above fractional order predator-prey system is Lyapunov globally asymptotical stable. An example is given to show the effectiveness of the approach presented in this paper.

Keywords: Fractional predator-prey model, laplace transform, characteristic equation.

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Authors: Murat Dicleli, Ali Salem Milani

Abstract:

In this paper, a summary of analytical and experimental studies into the behavior of a new hysteretic damper, designed for seismic protection of structures is presented. The Multidirectional Torsional Hysteretic Damper (MRSD) is a patented invention in which a symmetrical arrangement of identical cylindrical steel cores is so configured as to yield in torsion while the structure experiences planar movements due to earthquake shakings. The new device has certain desirable properties. Notably, it is characterized by a variable and controllable-via-design post-elastic stiffness. The mentioned property is a result of MRSD’s kinematic configuration which produces this geometric hardening, rather than being a secondary large-displacement effect. Additionally, the new system is capable of reaching high force and displacement capacities, shows high levels of damping, and very stable cyclic response. The device has gone through many stages of design refinement, multiple prototype verification tests and development of design guide-lines and computer codes to facilitate its implementation in practice. Practicality of the new device, as offspring of an academic sphere, is assured through extensive collaboration with industry in its final design stages, prototyping and verification test programs.

Keywords: Seismic, isolation, damper, adaptive stiffness.

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Authors: Huan Xiong, Ming Chen

Abstract:

In order to research Internet quantificationally and better model the performance of network, this paper proposes a novel AS level network performance model (MNPM), it takes autonomous system (AS) as basic modeling unit, measures E2E performance between any two outdegrees of an AS and organizes measurement results into matrix form which called performance matrix (PM). Inter-AS performance calculation is defined according to performance information stored in PM. Simulation has been implemented to verify the correctness of MNPM and a practical application of MNPM (network congestion detection) is given.

Keywords: AS, network performance, model, metric, congestion.

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Authors: O. P. Misra, Preety Kalra

Abstract:

It is well recognized that the green house gases such as Chlorofluoro Carbon (CFC), CH4, CO2 etc. are responsible directly or indirectly for the increase in the average global temperature of the Earth. The presence of CFC is responsible for the depletion of ozone concentration in the atmosphere due to which the heat accompanied with the sun rays are less absorbed causing increase in the atmospheric temperature of the Earth. The gases like CH4 and CO2 are also responsible for the increase in the atmospheric temperature. The increase in the temperature level directly or indirectly affects the dynamics of interacting species systems. Therefore, in this paper a mathematical model is proposed and analysed using stability theory to asses the effects of increasing temperature due to greenhouse gases on the survival or extinction of populations in a prey-predator system. A threshold value in terms of a stress parameter is obtained which determines the extinction or existence of populations in the underlying system.

Keywords: Equilibria, Green house gases, Model, Populations, Stability.

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Authors: Andreas Hammer

Abstract:

Six peculiar architecture designs from the Frankfurt University will be discussed within this paper and their future potential of the adaptable and solar thin-film sheets implemented facades will be shown acting and reacting on climate/solar changes of their specific sites. The different aspects, as well as limitations with regard to technical and functional restrictions, will be named.  The design process for a “multi-purpose building”, a “high-rise building refurbishment” and a “biker’s lodge” on the river Rheine valley, has been critically outlined and developed step by step from an international studentship towards an overall energy strategy, that firstly had to push the design to a plus-energy building and secondly had to incorporate bionic aspects into the building skins design. Both main parameters needed to be reviewed and refined during the whole design process. Various basic bionic approaches have been given [e.g. solar ivy ^TM, flectofin ^TM or hygroskin ^TM, which were to experiment with, regarding the use of bendable photovoltaic thin film elements being parts of a hybrid, kinetic façade system.

Keywords: Energy-strategy, photovoltaic in building skins, bionic and bioclimatic design, plus-energy-buildings, solar gain, the harvesting façade, sustainable building concept, high-efficiency building skin, climate adaptive Building Shells (CABS).

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Authors: Ali Zifan, Sohrab Saberi, Mohammad Hassan Moradi, Farzad Towhidkhah

Abstract:

Electrocardiogram (ECG) segmentation is necessary to help reduce the time consuming task of manually annotating ECG's. Several algorithms have been developed to segment the ECG automatically. We first review several of such methods, and then present a new single lead segmentation method based on Adaptive piecewise constant approximation (APCA) and Piecewise derivative dynamic time warping (PDDTW). The results are tested on the QT database. We compared our results to Laguna's two lead method. Our proposed approach has a comparable mean error, but yields a slightly higher standard deviation than Laguna's method.

Keywords: Adaptive Piecewise Constant Approximation, Dynamic programming, ECG segmentation, Piecewise Derivative Dynamic Time Warping.

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Authors: P. Jomsri

Abstract:

Currently, web usage make a huge data from a lot of user attention. In general, proxy server is a system to support web usage from user and can manage system by using hit rates. This research tries to improve hit rates in proxy system by applying data mining technique. The data set are collected from proxy servers in the university and are investigated relationship based on several features. The model is used to predict the future access websites. Association rule technique is applied to get the relation among Date, Time, Main Group web, Sub Group web, and Domain name for created model. The results showed that this technique can predict web content for the next day, moreover the future accesses of websites increased from 38.15% to 85.57 %. This model can predict web page access which tends to increase the efficient of proxy servers as a result. In additional, the performance of internet access will be improved and help to reduce traffic in networks.

Keywords: Association rule, proxy server, data mining.

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Authors: Huda Algharib, Amal Algharib, Hanan Algharib, Ali Mohammad Alqudah

Abstract:

Image registration is an important topic for many imaging systems and computer vision applications. The standard image registration techniques such as Mutual information/ Normalized mutual information -based methods have a limited performance because they do not consider the spatial information or the relationships between the neighbouring pixels or voxels. In addition, the amount of image noise may significantly affect the registration accuracy. Therefore, this paper proposes an efficient method that explicitly considers the relationships between the adjacent pixels, where the gradient information of the reference and scene images is extracted first, and then the cosine similarity of the extracted gradient information is computed and used to improve the accuracy of the standard normalized mutual information measure. Our experimental results on different data types (i.e. CT, MRI and thermal images) show that the proposed method outperforms a number of image registration techniques in terms of the accuracy.

Keywords: Image registration, mutual information, image gradients, Image transformations.

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Authors: Djamel Saba, Fatima Zohra Laallam, Brahim Berbaoui

Abstract:

This paper presents a contribution to the design of a multi-agent for the energy management system in a hybrid energy system (SEH). The multi-agent-based energy-coordination management system (MA-ECMS) is based mainly on coordination between agents. The agents share the tasks and exchange information through communications protocols to achieve the main goal. This intelligent system can fully manage the consumption and production or simply to make proposals for action he thinks is best. The initial step is to give a presentation for the system that we want to model in order to understand all the details as much as possible. In our case, it is to implement a system for simulating a process control of energy management.

Keywords: Multi agents system, hybrid energy system, communications protocols, modelization, simulation, control process, energy management.

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Authors: Rahib Abiyev, Vasif H. Abiyev, C. Ardil

Abstract:

In this paper the development of neural network based fuzzy inference system for electricity consumption prediction is considered. The electricity consumption depends on number of factors, such as number of customers, seasons, type-s of customers, number of plants, etc. It is nonlinear process and can be described by chaotic time-series. The structure and algorithms of neuro-fuzzy system for predicting future values of electricity consumption is described. To determine the unknown coefficients of the system, the supervised learning algorithm is used. As a result of learning, the rules of neuro-fuzzy system are formed. The developed system is applied for predicting future values of electricity consumption of Northern Cyprus. The simulation of neuro-fuzzy system has been performed.

Keywords: Fuzzy logic, neural network, neuro-fuzzy system, neuro-fuzzy prediction.

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