Search results for: Estimation of Distribution Algorithms
Commenced in January 2007
Frequency: Monthly
Edition: International
Paper Count: 4141

Search results for: Estimation of Distribution Algorithms

3331 Forecasting Models for Steel Demand Uncertainty Using Bayesian Methods

Authors: Watcharin Sangma, Onsiri Chanmuang, Pitsanu Tongkhow

Abstract:

 A forecasting model for steel demand uncertainty in Thailand is proposed. It consists of trend, autocorrelation, and outliers in a hierarchical Bayesian frame work. The proposed model uses a cumulative Weibull distribution function, latent first-order autocorrelation, and binary selection, to account for trend, time-varying autocorrelation, and outliers, respectively. The Gibbs sampling Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) is used for parameter estimation. The proposed model is applied to steel demand index data in Thailand. The root mean square error (RMSE), mean absolute percentage error (MAPE), and mean absolute error (MAE) criteria are used for model comparison. The study reveals that the proposed model is more appropriate than the exponential smoothing method.

Keywords: Forecasting model, Steel demand uncertainty, Hierarchical Bayesian framework, Exponential smoothing method.

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3330 Optimal Allocation of PHEV Parking Lots to Minimize Distribution System Losses

Authors: Mahmud Fotuhi-Firuzabad, Ali Abbaspour, Mohsen Mazidi, Mohamamd Rastegar

Abstract:

To tackle the air pollution issues, Plug-in Hybrid Electric Vehicles (PHEVs) are proposed as an appropriate solution. Charging a large amount of PHEV batteries, if not controlled, would have negative impacts on the distribution system. The control process of charging of these vehicles can be centralized in parking lots that may provide a chance for better coordination than the individual charging in houses. In this paper, an optimization-based approach is proposed to determine the optimum PHEV parking capacities in candidate nodes of the distribution system. In so doing, a profile for charging and discharging of PHEVs is developed in order to flatten the network load profile. Then, this profile is used in solving an optimization problem to minimize the distribution system losses. The outputs of the proposed method are the proper place for PHEV parking lots and optimum capacity for each parking. The application of the proposed method on the IEEE-34 node test feeder verifies the effectiveness of the method.

Keywords: Plug-in Hybrid Electric Vehicle (PHEV), PHEV parking lot, V2G.

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3329 Soft-Sensor for Estimation of Gasoline Octane Number in Platforming Processes with Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Inference Systems (ANFIS)

Authors: Hamed.Vezvaei, Sepideh.Ordibeheshti, Mehdi.Ardjmand

Abstract:

Gasoline Octane Number is the standard measure of the anti-knock properties of a motor in platforming processes, that is one of the important unit operations for oil refineries and can be determined with online measurement or use CFR (Cooperative Fuel Research) engines. Online measurements of the Octane number can be done using direct octane number analyzers, that it is too expensive, so we have to find feasible analyzer, like ANFIS estimators. ANFIS is the systems that neural network incorporated in fuzzy systems, using data automatically by learning algorithms of NNs. ANFIS constructs an input-output mapping based both on human knowledge and on generated input-output data pairs. In this research, 31 industrial data sets are used (21 data for training and the rest of the data used for generalization). Results show that, according to this simulation, hybrid method training algorithm in ANFIS has good agreements between industrial data and simulated results.

Keywords: Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Inference Systems, GasolineOctane Number, Soft-sensor, Catalytic Naphtha Reforming

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3328 Application of Granular Computing Paradigm in Knowledge Induction

Authors: Iftikhar U. Sikder

Abstract:

This paper illustrates an application of granular computing approach, namely rough set theory in data mining. The paper outlines the formalism of granular computing and elucidates the mathematical underpinning of rough set theory, which has been widely used by the data mining and the machine learning community. A real-world application is illustrated, and the classification performance is compared with other contending machine learning algorithms. The predictive performance of the rough set rule induction model shows comparative success with respect to other contending algorithms.

Keywords: Concept approximation, granular computing, reducts, rough set theory, rule induction.

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3327 Negative Impact of Bacteria Legionella Pneumophila in Hot Water Distribution Systems on Human Health

Authors: Daniela Ocipova, Zuzana Vranayova, Ondrej Sikula

Abstract:

Safe drinking water is one of the biggest issues facing the planet this century. The primary aim of this paper is to present our research focused on theoretical and experimental analysis of potable water and in-building water distribution systems from the point of view of microbiological risk on the basis of confrontation between the theoretical analysis and synthesis of gathered information in conditions of the Slovak Republic. The presence of the bacteria Legionella in water systems, especially in hot water distribution system, represents in terms of health protection of inhabitants the crucial problem which cannot be overlooked. Legionella pneumophila discovery, its classification and its influence on installations inside buildings are relatively new. There are a lot of guidelines and regulations developed in many individual countries for the design, operation and maintenance for tap water systems to avoid the growth of bacteria Legionella pneumophila, but in Slovakia we don-t have any. The goal of this paper is to show the necessity of prevention and regulations for installations inside buildings verified by simulation methods.

Keywords: Legionella pneumophila, water temperature, distribution system, risk analysis, simulations.

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3326 Parameter Estimation using Maximum Likelihood Method from Flight Data at High Angles of Attack

Authors: Rakesh Kumar, A. K. Ghosh

Abstract:

The paper presents the modeling of nonlinear longitudinal aerodynamics using flight data of Hansa-3 aircraft at high angles of attack near stall. The Kirchhoff-s quasi-steady stall model has been used to incorporate nonlinear aerodynamic effects in the aerodynamic model used to estimate the parameters, thereby, making the aerodynamic model nonlinear. The Maximum Likelihood method has been applied to the flight data (at high angles of attack) for the estimation of parameters (aerodynamic and stall characteristics) using the nonlinear aerodynamic model. To improve the accuracy level of the estimates, an approach of fixing the strong parameters has also been presented.

Keywords: Maximum Likelihood, nonlinear, parameters, stall.

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3325 Dissimilar Materials Joint and Effect of Angle Junction on Stress Distribution at Interface

Authors: Ali Baladi, Alireza Fallahi Arezoodar

Abstract:

in dissimilar material joints, failure often occurs along the interface between two materials due to stress singularity. Stress distribution and its concentration depend on materials and geometry of the junction. Inhomogenity of stress distribution at the interface of junction of two materials with different elastic modules and stress concentration in this zone are the main factors resulting in rupture of the junction. Effect of joining angle in the interface of aluminum-polycarbonate will be discussed in this paper. Computer simulation and finite element analysis by ABAQUS showed that convex interfacial joint leads to stress reduction at junction corners in compare with straight joint. This finding is confirmed by photoelastic experimental results.

Keywords: Elastic Modules, Stress Concentration, JoiningAngle, Photoelastic.

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3324 The Cost and Benefit on the Investment in Safety and Health of the Enterprises in Thailand

Authors: Charawee Butbumrung

Abstract:

The purpose of this study is to evaluate the monetary worthiness of investment and the usefulness of risk estimation as a tool employed by a production section of an electronic factory. This study employed the case study of accidents occurring in production areas. Data is collected from interviews with six production of safety coordinators and collect the information from the relevant section. The study will present the ratio of benefits compared with the operation costs for investment. The result showed that it is worthwhile for investment with the safety measures. In addition, the organizations must be able to analyze the causes of accidents about the benefits of investing in protective working process. They also need to quickly provide the manual for the staff to learn how to protect themselves from accidents and how to use all of the safety equipment.

Keywords: Cost and benefit, enterprises in Thailand, investment in safety and health, risk estimation.

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3323 Analysis of Diverse Clustering Tools in Data Mining

Authors: S. Sarumathi, N. Shanthi, M. Sharmila

Abstract:

Clustering in data mining is an unsupervised learning technique of aggregating the data objects into meaningful groups such that the intra cluster similarity of objects are maximized and inter cluster similarity of objects are minimized. Over the past decades several clustering tools were emerged in which clustering algorithms are inbuilt and are easier to use and extract the expected results. Data mining mainly deals with the huge databases that inflicts on cluster analysis and additional rigorous computational constraints. These challenges pave the way for the emergence of powerful expansive data mining clustering softwares. In this survey, a variety of clustering tools used in data mining are elucidated along with the pros and cons of each software.

Keywords: Cluster Analysis, Clustering Algorithms, Clustering Techniques, Association, Visualization.

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3322 Effect of DG Installation in Distribution System for Voltage Monitoring Scheme

Authors: S. R. A. Rahim, I. Musirin, M. M. Othman, M. H. Hussain

Abstract:

Loss minimization is a long progressing issue mainly in distribution system. Nevertheless its effect led to temperature rise due to significant voltage drop through the distribution line. Thus, compensation scheme should be proper scheduled in the attempt to alleviate the voltage drop phenomenon. Distributed generation has been profoundly known for voltage profile improvement; provided that over-compensation or under-compensation phenomena are avoided. This paper addresses the issue of voltage improvement through different type DG installation. In ensuring optimal sizing and location of the DGs, pre-developed EMEFA technique was made use for this purpose. Incremental loading condition subjected to the system is the concern such that it is beneficial to the power system operator.

Keywords: Distributed generation, EMEFA, power loss, voltage profile.

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3321 Estimation of Production Function in Fishery on the Coasts of Caspian Sea

Authors: Komeil Jahanifar, Zahra Abedi, Yaghob Zeraatkish

Abstract:

This research was conducted for the first time at the southeastern coasts of the Caspian Sea in order to evaluate the performance of osteichthyes cooperatives through production (catch) function. Using one of the indirect valuation methods in this research, contributory factors in catch were identified and were inserted into the function as independent variables. In order to carry out this research, the performance of 25 Osteichthyes catching cooperatives in the utilization year of 2009 which were involved in fishing in Miankale wildlife refuge region. The contributory factors in catch were divided into groups of economic, ecological and biological factors. In the mentioned function, catch rate of the cooperative were inserted into as the dependant variable and fourteen partial variables in terms of nine general variables as independent variables. Finally, after function estimation, seven variables were rendered significant at 99 percent reliably level. The results of the function estimation indicated that human resource (fisherman quantity) had the greatest positive effect on catch rate with an influence coefficient of 1.7 while weather conditions had the greatest negative effect on the catch rate of cooperatives with an influence coefficient of -2.07. Moreover, factors like member's share, experience and fisherman training and fishing effort played the main roles in the catch rate of cooperative with influence coefficients of 0.81, 0.5 and 0.21, respectively.

Keywords: Production Function, Coefficient, Variable, Osteichthyes, Caspian Sea

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3320 Reduction of Power Losses in Distribution Systems

Authors: Y. Al-Mahroqi, I.A. Metwally, A. Al-Hinai, A. Al-Badi

Abstract:

Losses reduction initiatives in distribution systems have been activated due to the increasing cost of supplying electricity, the shortage in fuel with ever-increasing cost to produce more power, and the global warming concerns. These initiatives have been introduced to the utilities in shape of incentives and penalties. Recently, the electricity distribution companies in Oman have been incentivized to reduce the distribution technical and non-technical losses with an equal annual reduction rate for 6 years. In this paper, different techniques for losses reduction in Mazoon Electricity Company (MZEC) are addressed. In this company, high numbers of substation and feeders were found to be non-compliant with the Distribution System Security Standard (DSSS). Therefore, 33 projects have been suggested to bring non-complying 29 substations and 28 feeders to meet the planed criteria and to comply with the DSSS. The largest part of MZEC-s network (South Batinah region) was modeled by ETAP software package. The model has been extended to implement the proposed projects and to examine their effects on losses reduction. Simulation results have shown that the implementation of these projects leads to a significant improvement in voltage profile, and reduction in the active and the reactive power losses. Finally, the economical analysis has revealed that the implementation of the proposed projects in MZEC leads to an annual saving of about US$ 5 million.

Keywords: Losses Reduction, Technical Losses, Non-Technical Losses, Cost Analysis

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3319 On SNR Estimation by the Likelihood of near Pitch for Speech Detection

Authors: Young-Hwan Song, Doo-Heon Kyun, Jong-Kuk Kim, Myung-Jin Bae

Abstract:

People have the habitual pitch level which is used when people say something generally. However this pitch should be changed irregularly in the presence of noise. So it is useful to estimate SNR of speech signal by pitch. In this paper, we obtain the energy of input speech signal and then we detect a stationary region on voiced speech. And we get the pitch period by NAMDF for the stationary region that is not varied pitch rapidly. After getting pitch, each frame is divided by pitch period and the likelihood of closed pitch is estimated. In this paper, we proposed new parameter, NLF, to estimate the SNR of received speech signal. The NLF is derived from the correlation of near pitch periods. The NLF is obtained for each stationary region in voiced speech. Finally we confirmed good performance of the estimation of the SNR of received input speech in the presence of noise.

Keywords: Likelihood, pitch, SNR, speech.

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3318 Real-time Network Anomaly Detection Systems Based on Machine-Learning Algorithms

Authors: Zahra Ramezanpanah, Joachim Carvallo, Aurelien Rodriguez

Abstract:

This paper aims to detect anomalies in streaming data using machine learning algorithms. In this regard, we designed two separate pipelines and evaluated the effectiveness of each separately. The first pipeline, based on supervised machine learning methods, consists of two phases. In the first phase, we trained several supervised models using the UNSW-NB15 data set. We measured the efficiency of each using different performance metrics and selected the best model for the second phase. At the beginning of the second phase, we first, using Argus Server, sniffed a local area network. Several types of attacks were simulated and then sent the sniffed data to a running algorithm at short intervals. This algorithm can display the results of each packet of received data in real-time using the trained model. The second pipeline presented in this paper is based on unsupervised algorithms, in which a Temporal Graph Network (TGN) is used to monitor a local network. The TGN is trained to predict the probability of future states of the network based on its past behavior. Our contribution in this section is introducing an indicator to identify anomalies from these predicted probabilities.

Keywords: Cyber-security, Intrusion Detection Systems, Temporal Graph Network, Anomaly Detection.

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3317 Application of Digital Image Correlation Technique on Vacuum Assisted Resin Transfer Molding Process and Performance Evaluation of the Produced Materials

Authors: Dingding Chen, Kazuo Arakawa, Masakazu Uchino, Changheng Xu

Abstract:

Vacuum assisted resin transfer moulding (VARTM) is a promising manufacture process for making large and complex fiber reinforced composite structures. However, the complexity of the flow of the resin in the infusion stage usually leads to nonuniform property distribution of the produced composite part. In order to control the flow of the resin, the situation of flow should be mastered. For the safety of the usage of the produced composite in practice, the understanding of the property distribution is essential. In this paper, we did some trials on monitoring the resin infusion stage and evaluation for the fiber volume fraction distribution of the VARTM produced composite using the digital image correlation methods. The results showthat3D-DIC is valid on monitoring the resin infusion stage and it is possible to use 2D-DIC to estimate the distribution of the fiber volume fraction on a FRP plate.

Keywords: Digital image correlation, VARTM, FRP, fiber volume fraction.

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3316 Ant Colony Optimization for Optimal Distributed Generation in Distribution Systems

Authors: I. A. Farhat

Abstract:

The problem of optimal planning of multiple sources of distributed generation (DG) in distribution networks is treated in this paper using an improved Ant Colony Optimization algorithm (ACO). This objective of this problem is to determine the DG optimal size and location that in order to minimize the network real power losses. Considering the multiple sources of DG, both size and location are simultaneously optimized in a single run of the proposed ACO algorithm. The various practical constraints of the problem are taken into consideration by the problem formulation and the algorithm implementation. A radial power flow algorithm for distribution networks is adopted and applied to satisfy these constraints. To validate the proposed technique and demonstrate its effectiveness, the well-know 69-bus feeder standard test system is employed.cm.

Keywords: About Ant Colony Optimization (ACO), Distributed Generation (DG).

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3315 Application of ANN for Estimation of Power Demand of Villages in Sulaymaniyah Governorate

Authors: A. Majeed, P. Ali

Abstract:

Before designing an electrical system, the estimation of load is necessary for unit sizing and demand-generation balancing. The system could be a stand-alone system for a village or grid connected or integrated renewable energy to grid connection, especially as there are non–electrified villages in developing countries. In the classical model, the energy demand was found by estimating the household appliances multiplied with the amount of their rating and the duration of their operation, but in this paper, information exists for electrified villages could be used to predict the demand, as villages almost have the same life style. This paper describes a method used to predict the average energy consumed in each two months for every consumer living in a village by Artificial Neural Network (ANN). The input data are collected using a regional survey for samples of consumers representing typical types of different living, household appliances and energy consumption by a list of information, and the output data are collected from administration office of Piramagrun for each corresponding consumer. The result of this study shows that the average demand for different consumers from four villages in different months throughout the year is approximately 12 kWh/day, this model estimates the average demand/day for every consumer with a mean absolute percent error of 11.8%, and MathWorks software package MATLAB version 7.6.0 that contains and facilitate Neural Network Toolbox was used.

Keywords: Artificial neural network, load estimation, regional survey, rural electrification.

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3314 IMLFQ Scheduling Algorithm with Combinational Fault Tolerant Method

Authors: MohammadReza EffatParvar, Akbar Bemana, Mehdi EffatParvar

Abstract:

Scheduling algorithms are used in operating systems to optimize the usage of processors. One of the most efficient algorithms for scheduling is Multi-Layer Feedback Queue (MLFQ) algorithm which uses several queues with different quanta. The most important weakness of this method is the inability to define the optimized the number of the queues and quantum of each queue. This weakness has been improved in IMLFQ scheduling algorithm. Number of the queues and quantum of each queue affect the response time directly. In this paper, we review the IMLFQ algorithm for solving these problems and minimizing the response time. In this algorithm Recurrent Neural Network has been utilized to find both the number of queues and the optimized quantum of each queue. Also in order to prevent any probable faults in processes' response time computation, a new fault tolerant approach has been presented. In this approach we use combinational software redundancy to prevent the any probable faults. The experimental results show that using the IMLFQ algorithm results in better response time in comparison with other scheduling algorithms also by using fault tolerant mechanism we improve IMLFQ performance.

Keywords: IMLFQ, Fault Tolerant, Scheduling, Queue, Recurrent Neural Network.

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3313 Normalized Cumulative Spectral Distribution in Music

Authors: Young-Hwan Song, Hyung-Jun Kwon, Myung-Jin Bae

Abstract:

As the remedy used music becomes active and meditation effect through the music is verified, people take a growing interest about psychological balance or remedy given by music. From traditional studies, it is verified that the music of which spectral envelop varies approximately as 1/f (f is frequency) down to a frequency of low frequency bandwidth gives psychological balance. In this paper, we researched signal properties of music which gives psychological balance. In order to find this, we derived the property from voice. Music composed by voice shows large value in NCSD. We confirmed the degree of deference between music by curvature of normalized cumulative spectral distribution. In the music that gives psychological balance, the curvature shows high value, otherwise, the curvature shows low value.

Keywords: Cognitive Psychology, Normalized Cumulative Spectral Distribution, Curvature.

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3312 Anti-Counterfeiting Solution Employing Mobile RFID Environment

Authors: Juhan Kim, Howon Kim

Abstract:

EPC Class-1 Generation-2 UHF tags, one of Radio frequency identification or RFID tag types, is expected that most companies are planning to use it in the supply chain in the short term and in consumer packaging in the long term due to its inexpensive cost. Because of the very cost, however, its resources are extremely scarce and it is hard to have any valuable security algorithms in it. It causes security vulnerabilities, in particular cloning the tags for counterfeits. In this paper, we propose a product authentication solution for anti-counterfeiting at application level in the supply chain and mobile RFID environment. It aims to become aware of distribution of spurious products with fake RFID tags and to provide a product authentication service to general consumers with mobile RFID devices like mobile phone or PDA which has a mobile RFID reader. We will discuss anti-counterfeiting mechanisms which are required to our proposed solution and address requirements that the mechanisms should have.

Keywords: EPC, RFID, Anti-Counterfeiting, Mobile RFIDenvironment.

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3311 On-line Image Mosaicing of Live Stem Cells

Authors: Alessandro Bevilacqua, Alessandro Gherardi, Filippo Piccinini

Abstract:

Image mosaicing is a technique that permits to enlarge the field of view of a camera. For instance, it is employed to achieve panoramas with common cameras or even in scientific applications, to achieve the image of a whole culture in microscopical imaging. Usually, a mosaic of cell cultures is achieved through using automated microscopes. However, this is often performed in batch, through CPU intensive minimization algorithms. In addition, live stem cells are studied in phase contrast, showing a low contrast that cannot be improved further. We present a method to study the flat field from live stem cells images even in case of 100% confluence, this permitting to build accurate mosaics on-line using high performance algorithms.

Keywords: Microscopy, image mosaicing, stem cells.

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3310 An Expert System Designed to Be Used with MOEAs for Efficient Portfolio Selection

Authors: K. Metaxiotis, K. Liagkouras

Abstract:

This study presents an Expert System specially designed to be used with Multiobjective Evolutionary Algorithms (MOEAs) for the solution of the portfolio selection problem. The validation of the proposed hybrid System is done by using data sets from Hang Seng 31 in Hong Kong, DAX 100 in Germany and FTSE 100 in UK. The performance of the proposed system is assessed in comparison with the Non-dominated Sorting Genetic Algorithm II (NSGAII). The evaluation of the performance is based on different performance metrics that evaluate both the proximity of the solutions to the Pareto front and their dispersion on it. The results show that the proposed hybrid system is efficient for the solution of this kind of problems.

Keywords: Expert Systems, Multiobjective optimization, Evolutionary Algorithms, Portfolio Selection.

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3309 Non-Parametric, Unconditional Quantile Estimation of Efficiency in Microfinance Institutions

Authors: Komlan Sedzro

Abstract:

We apply the non-parametric, unconditional, hyperbolic order-α quantile estimator to appraise the relative efficiency of Microfinance Institutions in Africa in terms of outreach. Our purpose is to verify if these institutions, which must constantly try to strike a compromise between their social role and financial sustainability are operationally efficient. Using data on African MFIs extracted from the Microfinance Information eXchange (MIX) database and covering the 2004 to 2006 periods, we find that more efficient MFIs are also the most profitable. This result is in line with the view that social performance is not in contradiction with the pursuit of excellent financial performance. Our results also show that large MFIs in terms of asset and those charging the highest fees are not necessarily the most efficient.

Keywords: Data envelopment analysis, microfinance institutions, quantile estimation of efficiency, social and financial performance.

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3308 Mimicking Morphogenesis for Robust Behaviour of Cellular Architectures

Authors: David Jones, Richard McWilliam, Alan Purvis

Abstract:

Morphogenesis is the process that underpins the selforganised development and regeneration of biological systems. The ability to mimick morphogenesis in artificial systems has great potential for many engineering applications, including production of biological tissue, design of robust electronic systems and the co-ordination of parallel computing. Previous attempts to mimick these complex dynamics within artificial systems have relied upon the use of evolutionary algorithms that have limited their size and complexity. This paper will present some insight into the underlying dynamics of morphogenesis, then show how to, without the assistance of evolutionary algorithms, design cellular architectures that converge to complex patterns.

Keywords: Morphogenesis, regeneration, robustness, convergence, cellular automata.

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3307 A New Heuristic Approach for the Large-Scale Generalized Assignment Problem

Authors: S. Raja Balachandar, K.Kannan

Abstract:

This paper presents a heuristic approach to solve the Generalized Assignment Problem (GAP) which is NP-hard. It is worth mentioning that many researches used to develop algorithms for identifying the redundant constraints and variables in linear programming model. Some of the algorithms are presented using intercept matrix of the constraints to identify redundant constraints and variables prior to the start of the solution process. Here a new heuristic approach based on the dominance property of the intercept matrix to find optimal or near optimal solution of the GAP is proposed. In this heuristic, redundant variables of the GAP are identified by applying the dominance property of the intercept matrix repeatedly. This heuristic approach is tested for 90 benchmark problems of sizes upto 4000, taken from OR-library and the results are compared with optimum solutions. Computational complexity is proved to be O(mn2) of solving GAP using this approach. The performance of our heuristic is compared with the best state-ofthe- art heuristic algorithms with respect to both the quality of the solutions. The encouraging results especially for relatively large size test problems indicate that this heuristic approach can successfully be used for finding good solutions for highly constrained NP-hard problems.

Keywords: Combinatorial Optimization Problem, Generalized Assignment Problem, Intercept Matrix, Heuristic, Computational Complexity, NP-Hard Problems.

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3306 Asymmetrical Informative Estimation for Macroeconomic Model: Special Case in the Tourism Sector of Thailand

Authors: Chukiat Chaiboonsri, Satawat Wannapan

Abstract:

This paper used an asymmetric informative concept to apply in the macroeconomic model estimation of the tourism sector in Thailand. The variables used to statistically analyze are Thailand international and domestic tourism revenues, the expenditures of foreign and domestic tourists, service investments by private sectors, service investments by the government of Thailand, Thailand service imports and exports, and net service income transfers. All of data is a time-series index which was observed between 2002 and 2015. Empirically, the tourism multiplier and accelerator were estimated by two statistical approaches. The first was the result of the Generalized Method of Moments model (GMM) based on the assumption which the tourism market in Thailand had perfect information (Symmetrical data). The second was the result of the Maximum Entropy Bootstrapping approach (MEboot) based on the process that attempted to deal with imperfect information and reduced uncertainty in data observations (Asymmetrical data). In addition, the tourism leakages were investigated by a simple model based on the injections and leakages concept. The empirical findings represented the parameters computed from the MEboot approach which is different from the GMM method. However, both of the MEboot estimation and GMM model suggests that Thailand’s tourism sectors are in a period capable of stimulating the economy.

Keywords: Thailand tourism, maximum entropy bootstrapping approach, macroeconomic model, asymmetric information.

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3305 Remarks Regarding Queuing Model and Packet Loss Probability for the Traffic with Self-Similar Characteristics

Authors: Mihails Kulikovs, Ernests Petersons

Abstract:

Network management techniques have long been of interest to the networking research community. The queue size plays a critical role for the network performance. The adequate size of the queue maintains Quality of Service (QoS) requirements within limited network capacity for as many users as possible. The appropriate estimation of the queuing model parameters is crucial for both initial size estimation and during the process of resource allocation. The accurate resource allocation model for the management system increases the network utilization. The present paper demonstrates the results of empirical observation of memory allocation for packet-based services.

Keywords: Queuing System, Packet Loss Probability, Measurement-Based Admission Control (MBAC), Performanceevaluation, Quality of Service (QoS).

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3304 Optimization of Distribution Network Configuration for Loss Reduction Using Artificial Bee Colony Algorithm

Authors: R. Srinivasa Rao, S.V.L. Narasimham, M. Ramalingaraju

Abstract:

Network reconfiguration in distribution system is realized by changing the status of sectionalizing switches to reduce the power loss in the system. This paper presents a new method which applies an artificial bee colony algorithm (ABC) for determining the sectionalizing switch to be operated in order to solve the distribution system loss minimization problem. The ABC algorithm is a new population based metaheuristic approach inspired by intelligent foraging behavior of honeybee swarm. The advantage of ABC algorithm is that it does not require external parameters such as cross over rate and mutation rate as in case of genetic algorithm and differential evolution and it is hard to determine these parameters in prior. The other advantage is that the global search ability in the algorithm is implemented by introducing neighborhood source production mechanism which is a similar to mutation process. To demonstrate the validity of the proposed algorithm, computer simulations are carried out on 14, 33, and 119-bus systems and compared with different approaches available in the literature. The proposed method has outperformed the other methods in terms of the quality of solution and computational efficiency.

Keywords: Distribution system, Network reconfiguration, Loss reduction, Artificial Bee Colony Algorithm.

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3303 Statistical Description of Wave Interactions in 1D Defect Turbulence

Authors: Yusuke Uchiyama, Hidetoshi Konno

Abstract:

We have investigated statistical properties of the defect turbulence in 1D CGLE wherein many body interaction is involved between local depressing wave (LDW) and local standing wave (LSW). It is shown that the counting number fluctuation of LDW is subject to the sub-Poisson statistics (SUBP). The physical origin of the SUBP can be ascribed to pair extinction of LDWs based on the master equation approach. It is also shown that the probability density function (pdf) of inter-LDW distance can be identified by the hyper gamma distribution. Assuming a superstatistics of the exponential distribution (Poisson configuration), a plausible explanation is given. It is shown further that the pdf of amplitude of LDW has a fattail. The underlying mechanism of its fluctuation is examined by introducing a generalized fractional Poisson configuration.

Keywords: sub-Poisson statistics, hyper gamma distribution, fractional Poisson configuration.

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3302 ANFIS Modeling of the Surface Roughness in Grinding Process

Authors: H. Baseri, G. Alinejad

Abstract:

The objective of this study is to design an adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system (ANFIS) for estimation of surface roughness in grinding process. The Used data have been generated from experimental observations when the wheel has been dressed using a rotary diamond disc dresser. The input parameters of model are dressing speed ratio, dressing depth and dresser cross-feed rate and output parameter is surface roughness. In the experimental procedure the grinding conditions are constant and only the dressing conditions are varied. The comparison of the predicted values and the experimental data indicates that the ANFIS model has a better performance with respect to back-propagation neural network (BPNN) model which has been presented by the authors in previous work for estimation of the surface roughness.

Keywords: Grinding, ANFIS, Neural network, Disc dressing.

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