Search results for: three phase voltage source inverter

Authors: Apinan Aurasopon, Worawat Sa-ngiavibool

Abstract:

This paper proposes a synchronized random switching frequency pulse width modulation (SRSFPWM). In this technique, the clock signal is used to control the random noise frequency which is produced by the feedback voltage of a hysteresis circuit. These make the triangular carrier frequency equaling to the random noise frequency in each switching period with the symmetrical positive and negative slopes of triangular carrier. Therefore, there is no error voltage in PWM signal. The PSpice simulated results shown the proposed technique improved the performance in case of low frequency harmonics of PWM signal comparing with conventional random switching frequency PWM.

Keywords: Random switching frequency pulse - width modulation.

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Authors: Mehdi Saeidmanesh, Razali Ismail

Abstract:

Recently, Graphene Nanoribbon Field Effect Transistors (GNR FETs) attract a great deal of attention due to their better performance in comparison with conventional devices. In this paper, channel length Modulation (CLM) effect on the electrical characteristics of GNR FETs is analytically studied and modeled. To this end, the special distribution of the electric potential along the channel and current-voltage characteristic of the device is modeled. The obtained results of analytical model are compared to the experimental data of published works. As a result, it is observable that considering the effect of CLM, the current-voltage response of GNR FET is more realistic.

Keywords: Graphene nanoribbon, field effect transistors, short channel effects, channel length modulation.

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Authors: Sachin Kumar, Vivek Tiwari, Goutam Dutta

Abstract:

The paper investigates parallel channel instabilities of natural circulation boiling water reactor. A thermal-hydraulic model is developed to simulate two-phase flow behavior in the natural circulation boiling water reactor (NCBWR) with the incorporation of ex-core components and recirculation loop such as steam separator, down-comer, lower-horizontal section and upper-horizontal section and then, numerical analysis is carried out for parallel channel instabilities of the reactor undergoing both in-phase and out-of-phase modes of oscillations. To analyze the relative effect on stability of the reactor due to inclusion of various ex-core components and recirculation loop, marginal stable point is obtained at a particular inlet enthalpy of the reactor core without the inclusion of ex-core components and recirculation loop and then with the inclusion of the same. Numerical simulations are also conducted to determine the relative dominance between two modes of oscillations i.e. in-phase and out-of-phase. Simulations are also carried out when the channels are subjected to asymmetric power distribution keeping the inlet enthalpy same.

Keywords: Asymmetric power distribution, Density wave oscillations, In-phase and out-of-phase modes of instabilities, Natural circulation boiling water reactor

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Authors: Evgeniy Burlutskiy

Abstract:

The paper presents a one-dimensional transient mathematical model of thermal oil-water two-phase emulsion flows in pipes. The set of the mass, momentum and enthalpy conservation equations for the continuous fluid and droplet phases are solved. Two friction correlations for the continuous fluid phase to wall friction are accounted for in the model and tested. The aerodynamic drag force between the continuous fluid phase and droplets is modeled, too. The density and viscosity of both phases are assumed to be constant due to adiabatic experimental conditions. The proposed mathematical model is validated on the experimental measurements of oil-water emulsion flows in horizontal pipe [1,2]. Numerical analysis on single- and two-phase oil-water flows in a pipe is presented in the paper. The continuous oil flow having water droplets is simulated. Predictions, which are performed by using the presented model, show excellent agreement with the experimental data if the water fraction is equal or less than 10%. Disagreement between simulations and measurements is increased if the water fraction is larger than 10%.

Keywords: Mathematical model, Oil-Water, Pipe flows.

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Authors: Aichun Feng, Zhi-Min Chen, Jing Tang Xing

Abstract:

A two-dimensional linear wave-body interaction problem can be solved using a desingularized integral method by placing free surface Rankine sources over calm water surface and satisfying boundary conditions at prescribed collocation points on the calm water surface. A new free-surface Rankine source distribution scheme, determined by the intersection points of free surface and body surface, is developed to reduce numerical computation cost. Associated with this, a new treatment is given to the intersection point. The present scheme results are in good agreement with traditional numerical results and measurements.

Keywords: Source point distribution, panel method, Rankine source, desingularized algorithm.

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Authors: Andrey D. Andreev, Ilona I. Iatcheva, Dimitar N. Karastoyanov, Rumena D. Stancheva

Abstract:

A study of electromagnetic flow meter is presented in the paper. Comparison has been made between the analytical and the numerical results by the use of FEM numerical analysis (Quick Field 5.6) for determining polarization voltage through the circle cross section of the polarization transducer. Exciting and geometrical parameters increasing its effectiveness has been examined. The aim is to obtain maximal output signal. The investigations include different variants of the magnetic flux density distribution around the tube: homogeneous field of magnitude Bm, linear distribution with maximal value Bm and trapezium distribution conserving the same exciting magnetic energy as the homogeneous field.

Keywords: Effectiveness, electromagnetic flow meter, finite element method, polarization voltage.

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Authors: Gyo Woo Lee

Abstract:

In this study, the phase transition characteristics of flame-synthesized γ-Al₂O₃ nanoparticles to α-Al₂O₃ have been investigated. The nanoparticles were synthesized by using a coflow hydrogen diffusion flame. The phase transition and particle characteristics of the Al₂O₃ nanoparticles were determined by examining the crystalline structure and the shape of the collected nanoparticles before and after the heat treatment. The morphology and crystal structure of the Al₂O₃ nanoparticles were determined from SEM images and XRD analyses, respectively. The measured specific surface area and averaged particle size were 63.44m²/g and 23.94nm, respectively. Based on the scanning electron microscope images and x-ray diffraction patterns, it is believed that the onset temperature of the phase transition to α-Al₂O₃ was existed near 1200^oC. The averaged diameters of the sintered particles heat treated at 1,260^oC were approximately 80nm.

Keywords: BET Specific Surface Area, Gamma-Al2O3 Nanoparticles, Flame Synthesis, Phase Transition, X-ray Diffraction.

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Authors: Mohammad Javad Dehghani

Abstract:

In the power quality analysis non-stationary nature of voltage distortions require some precise and powerful analytical techniques. The time-frequency representation (TFR) provides a powerful method for identification of the non-stationary of the signals. This paper investigates a comparative study on two techniques for analysis and visualization of voltage distortions with time-varying amplitudes. The techniques include the Discrete Wavelet Transform (DWT), and the S-Transform. Several power quality problems are analyzed using both the discrete wavelet transform and S–transform, showing clearly the advantage of the S– transform in detecting, localizing, and classifying the power quality problems.

Keywords: Power quality, S-Transform, Short Time FourierTransform , Wavelet Transform, instantaneous sag, swell.

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Authors: A.K. Tangirala, S. Babji

Abstract:

In the last few years, three multivariate spectral analysis techniques namely, Principal Component Analysis (PCA), Independent Component Analysis (ICA) and Non-negative Matrix Factorization (NMF) have emerged as effective tools for oscillation detection and isolation. While the first method is used in determining the number of oscillatory sources, the latter two methods are used to identify source signatures by formulating the detection problem as a source identification problem in the spectral domain. In this paper, we present a critical drawback of the underlying linear (mixing) model which strongly limits the ability of the associated source separation methods to determine the number of sources and/or identify the physical source signatures. It is shown that the assumed mixing model is only valid if each unit of the process gives equal weighting (all-pass filter) to all oscillatory components in its inputs. This is in contrast to the fact that each unit, in general, acts as a filter with non-uniform frequency response. Thus, the model can only facilitate correct identification of a source with a single frequency component, which is again unrealistic. To overcome this deficiency, an iterative post-processing algorithm that correctly identifies the physical source(s) is developed. An additional issue with the existing methods is that they lack a procedure to pre-screen non-oscillatory/noisy measurements which obscure the identification of oscillatory sources. In this regard, a pre-screening procedure is prescribed based on the notion of sparseness index to eliminate the noisy and non-oscillatory measurements from the data set used for analysis.

Keywords: non-negative matrix factorization, PCA, source separation, plant-wide diagnosis

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Authors: M. Tria, M. Benidir, E. Chaumette

Abstract:

In Secondary Surveillance Radar (SSR) systems, it is more difficult to locate and recognise aircrafts in the neighbourhood of civil airports since aerial traffic becomes greater. Here, we propose to apply a recent Blind Source Separation (BSS) algorithm based on Time-Frequency Analysis, in order to separate messages sent by different aircrafts and falling in the same radar beam in reception. The above source separation method involves joint-diagonalization of a set of smoothed version of spatial Wigner-Ville distributions. The technique makes use of the difference in the t-f signatures of the nonstationary sources to be separated. Consequently, as the SSR sources emit different messages at different frequencies, the above fitted to this new application. We applied the technique in simulation to separate SSR replies. Results are provided at the end of the paper.

Keywords: Blind Source Separation, Time-Frequency Analysis, Secondary Radar

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Authors: N. H. Adenan, M. S. M. Noorani

Abstract:

River flow prediction is an essential to ensure proper management of water resources can be optimally distribute water to consumers. This study presents an analysis and prediction by using nonlinear prediction method involving monthly river flow data in Tanjung Tualang from 1976 to 2006. Nonlinear prediction method involves the reconstruction of phase space and local linear approximation approach. The phase space reconstruction involves the reconstruction of one-dimensional (the observed 287 months of data) in a multidimensional phase space to reveal the dynamics of the system. Revenue of phase space reconstruction is used to predict the next 72 months. A comparison of prediction performance based on correlation coefficient (CC) and root mean square error (RMSE) have been employed to compare prediction performance for nonlinear prediction method, ARIMA and SVM. Prediction performance comparisons show the prediction results using nonlinear prediction method is better than ARIMA and SVM. Therefore, the result of this study could be used to develop an efficient water management system to optimize the allocation water resources.

Keywords: River flow, nonlinear prediction method, phase space, local linear approximation.

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Authors: Kul Pun, F. A. Hamad, T. Ahmed, J. O. Ugwu, J. Eyers, G. Lawson, P. A. Russell

Abstract:

Determining droplet size and distribution is essential when determining the separation efficiency of a two/three-phase separator. This paper investigates the effect of liquid flow and oil pad thickness on the droplet size at the lab scale. The findings show that increasing the inlet flow rates of the oil and water results in size reduction of the droplets and increasing the thickness of the oil pad increases the size of the droplets. The data were fitted with a simple Gaussian model, and the parameters of mean, standard deviation, and amplitude were determined. Trends have been obtained for the fitted parameters as a function of the Reynolds number, which suggest a way forward to better predict the starting parameters for population models when simulating separation using CFD packages. The key parameter to predict to fix the position of the Gaussian distribution was found to be the mean droplet size.

Keywords: Two-phase separator, average bubble droplet, bubble size distribution, liquid-liquid phase.

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Authors: H. Khorashadi-Zadeh, M. R. Aghaebrahimi

Abstract:

A novel application of neural network approach to fault classification and fault location of Medium voltage cables is demonstrated in this paper. Different faults on a protected cable should be classified and located correctly. This paper presents the use of neural networks as a pattern classifier algorithm to perform these tasks. The proposed scheme is insensitive to variation of different parameters such as fault type, fault resistance, and fault inception angle. Studies show that the proposed technique is able to offer high accuracy in both of the fault classification and fault location tasks.

Keywords: Artificial neural networks, cable, fault location andfault classification.

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Authors: Kaumil B. Shah, Hina Chandwani

Abstract:

The modular multilevel converter (MMC) is one of the advanced topologies for medium and high-voltage applications. In high-power, high-voltage MMC, a large number of switching power devices are required. These switching power devices (IGBT) considerable switching losses. This paper analyzes the performance of different discontinuous pulse width modulation (DPWM) techniques and compares the results against a conventional carrier based pulse width modulation method, in order to reduce the switching losses of an MMC. The DPWM reference wave can be generated by adding the zero-sequence component to the original (sine) reference modulation signal. The result of the addition gives the reference signal of DPWM techniques. To minimize the switching losses of the MMC, the clamping period is controlled according to the absolute value of the output load current. No switching is generated in the clamping period so overall switching of the power device is reduced. The simulation result of the different DPWM techniques is compared with conventional carrier-based pulse-width modulation technique.

Keywords: Modular multilevel converter, discontinuous pulse width modulation, switching losses, zero-sequence voltage.

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Authors: Prashant P. Bedekar, Sudhir R. Bhide, Vijay S. Kale

Abstract:

Overcurrent (OC) relays are the major protection devices in a distribution system. The operating time of the OC relays are to be coordinated properly to avoid the mal-operation of the backup relays. The OC relay time coordination in ring fed distribution networks is a highly constrained optimization problem which can be stated as a linear programming problem (LPP). The purpose is to find an optimum relay setting to minimize the time of operation of relays and at the same time, to keep the relays properly coordinated to avoid the mal-operation of relays. This paper presents two phase simplex method for optimum time coordination of OC relays. The method is based on the simplex algorithm which is used to find optimum solution of LPP. The method introduces artificial variables to get an initial basic feasible solution (IBFS). Artificial variables are removed using iterative process of first phase which minimizes the auxiliary objective function. The second phase minimizes the original objective function and gives the optimum time coordination of OC relays.

Keywords: Constrained optimization, LPP, Overcurrent relaycoordination, Two-phase simplex method.

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Authors: Wahab Ali Shah, Junjia He

Abstract:

Transferring electrical power without any wiring has been a dream since late 19^th century. There were some advances in this area as to know more about microwave systems. However, this subject has recently become very attractive due to their practiScal systems. There are low power applications such as charging the batteries of contactless tooth brushes or implanted devices, and higher power applications such as charging the batteries of electrical automobiles or buses. In the first group of applications operating frequencies are in microwave range while the frequency is lower in high power applications. In the latter, the concept is also called inductive power transfer. The aim of the paper is to have an overview of the inductive power transfer for electrical vehicles with a special concentration on coil design and power converter simulation for static charging. Coil design is very important for an efficient and safe power transfer. Coil design is one of the most critical tasks. Power converters are used in both side of the system. The converter on the primary side is used to generate a high frequency voltage to excite the primary coil. The purpose of the converter in the secondary is to rectify the voltage transferred from the primary to charge the battery. In this paper, an inductive power transfer system is studied. Inductive power transfer is a promising technology with several possible applications. Operation principles of these systems are explained, and components of the system are described. Finally, a single phase 2 kW system was simulated and results were presented. The work presented in this paper is just an introduction to the concept. A reformed compensation network based on traditional inductor-capacitor-inductor (LCL) topology is proposed to realize robust reaction to large coupling variation that is common in dynamic wireless charging application. In the future, this type compensation should be studied. Also, comparison of different compensation topologies should be done for the same power level.

Keywords: Coil design, contactless charging, electrical automobiles, inductive power transfer, operating frequency.

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Authors: A. S. Jambhale, B. V. Barbadekar

Abstract:

Microwave energy can be used for drying purpose. It is unique process. It is distinctly different from conventional drying process. It is advantageous over conventional drying / heating processes. When microwave energy is used for drying purpose, the process can be accelerated with a better control to achieve uniform heating, more conversion efficiency, selective drying and ultimately improved product quality of the output. Also, less floor space and compact system are the added advantages. Existing low power microwave drying system is to be modified with suitable applicator. Appropriate sensors are to be used to measure parameters like moisture, temperature, weight of sample. Suitable high tech controller is to be used to control microwave power continuously from minimum to maximum. Phase - controller, cycle - controller and PWM - controller are some of the advanced power control techniques. It has been proposed to work on turmeric using high-tech phase controller to control the microwave power conveniently. The drying of turmeric with microwave energy employing phase controller gives better results as formulated in this paper and hence new approach of processing turmeric will open future doors of profit making to allied industries and the farmers.

Keywords: Applicator, microwave drying, phase controller.

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Authors: G. Minak, D. Ghelli, A. Zucchelli

Abstract:

This paper presents the results of an experimental characterization of a glass fibre-epoxy composite. The behavior of the traditional two-phase composite has been compared with the one of a new three-phase composite where the epoxy matrix was modified by addition of a 3% weight fraction of montmorillonite nano-particles. Two different types of nano-clays, Cloisite® 30B and RXG7000, produced by Southern Clay Products Inc., have been considered. Three-point bending tests, both monotonic and cyclic, were carried out. A strong reduction of the ultimate flexural strength upon nano-modification has been observed in quasi-static tests. Fatigue tests yielded a smaller strength loss. In both quasi-static and fatigue tests a more pronounced tendency to delamination has been noticed in three-phase composites, especially in the case of 30B nano-clay, with respect to the standard two-phase glass fiber composite.

Keywords: Bending fatigue, epoxy resin, glass fiber, montmorillonite.

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Authors: V. Arbabi , I. Ebrahimzadeh, H. Ghanbari, M.M. Kaykha

Abstract:

Horizontal continuous casting is widely used to produce semi-finished non-Ferrous products. Homogeneity in the metallurgical characteristics and mechanical properties for this product is vital for industrial application. In the present work, the microstructure and mechanical properties of a horizontal continuous cast two-phase brass billet have been studied. Impact strength and hardness variations were examined and the phase composition and porosity studied with image analysis software. Distinct differences in mechanical properties were observed between the upper, middle and lower parts of the billet, which are explained in terms of the morphology and size of the phase in the microstructure. Hardness variation in the length of billet is higher in upper area but impact strength is higher in lower areas.

Keywords: Horizontal Continuous Casting, Two-phase brasses, CuZn40Al1 alloy, Microstructure, Impact Strength.

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Authors: F. J. Sowiński, M. Dziubiński

Abstract:

In the study the influence of the physical-chemical properties of a liquid, the width of a channel gap and the superficial liquid and gas velocities on the patterns formed during two phase flows in vertical, narrow mini-channels was investigated. The research was performed in the channels of rectangular cross-section and of dimensions: 15 x 0.65 mm and 7.5 x 0.73 mm. The experimental data were compared with the published criteria of the transitions between the patterns of two-phase flows.

Keywords: Two-phase flow, flow regimes, mini-channel, viscosity.

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Authors: Jan Doutreloigne

Abstract:

This paper describes two methods for the reduction of the peak input current during the boosting of Dickson charge pumps. Both methods are implemented in the fully integrated Dickson charge pumps of a high-voltage display driver chip for smart-card applications. Experimental results reveal good correspondence with Spice simulations and show a reduction of the peak input current by a factor of 6 during boosting.

Keywords: Bi-stable display driver, Dickson charge pump, highvoltage generator, peak current reduction, sub-pump boosting, variable frequency boosting.

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Authors: José E. Q. Souza, Marcio Fontana, Antonio C. C. Lima

Abstract:

This paper presents analysis and characterization of a piezoelectric micro-generator for energy harvesting application. A low-cost experimental prototype was designed to operate as piezoelectric micro-generator in the laboratory. An input acceleration of 9.8m/s2 using a sine signal (peak-to-peak voltage: 1V, offset voltage: 0V) at frequencies ranging from 10Hz to 160Hz generated a maximum average power of 432.4μW (linear mass position = 25mm) and an average power of 543.3μW (angular mass position = 35°). These promising results show that the prototype can be considered for low consumption load application as an energy harvesting micro-generator.

Keywords: Piezoelectric, microgenerator, energy harvesting, cantilever beam.

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Authors: Waluyo, Ngapuli I. Sinisuka, Suwarno, Maman A. Djauhari

Abstract:

This paper presents the experimental results of comparison between leakage currents and discharge currents. The leakage currents were obtained on polluted porcelain insulator. Whereas, the discharge currents were obtained on lightly artificial polluted porcelain specimen. The conducted measurements were leakage current or discharge current and applied voltage. The insulator or specimen was in a hermetically sealed chamber, and the current waveforms were analyzed using FFT. The result indicated that the leakage current (LC) on low RH condition the fifth harmonic would be visible, and followed by the seventh harmonic. The insulator had capacitive property. Otherwise, on 99% relative humidity, the fifth harmonic would also be visible, and the phase angle reached up to 12.2 degree. Whereas, on discharge current, the third harmonic would be visible, and followed by fifth harmonic. The third harmonic would increase as pressure reduced. On this condition, the specimen had a non-linear characteristics

Keywords: leakage current, discharge current, third harmonic, fifth harmonic, porcelain.

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Authors: Rabah Diabi

Abstract:

As known, the guard wires of overhead high voltage are usually grounded through the grounding systems of support and of the terminal stations. They do affect the zero sequence impedance value of the line, Z0, which is generally, calculated assuming that the wires guard are at ground potential. In this way it is not considered the effect of the resistances of earth of supports and stations. In this work is formed a formula for the calculation of Z0 which takes account of said resistances. Is also proposed a method of calculating the impedance zero sequence overhead lines in which, in various sections or spans, the guard wires are connected to the supports, or isolated from them, or are absent. Parametric analysis is given for lines 220 kV and 400 kV, which shows the extent of the errors made with traditional methods of calculation.

Keywords: Overhead line, power system, zero sequence, wire guard, grounding.

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Authors: S. K. Gupta, Richa Bansal

Abstract:

In a deregulated power system structure, power producers and customers share a common transmission network for wheeling power from the point of generation to the point of consumption. All parties in this open access environment may try to purchase the energy from the cheaper source for greater profit margins, which may lead to overloading and congestion of certain corridors of the transmission network. This may result in violation of line flow, voltage and stability limits and thereby undermine the system security. Utilities therefore need to determine adequately their available transfer capability (ATC) to ensure that system reliability is maintained while serving a wide range of bilateral and multilateral transactions. This paper presents power transfer distribution factor based on AC load flow for the determination and enhancement of ATC. The study has been carried out for IEEE 24 bus Reliability Test System.

Keywords: Available Transfer Capability, FACTS devices, Power Transfer Distribution Factors.

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Authors: Chun-Yao Lee, Yi-Xing Shen

Abstract:

This paper presents an application of particle swarm optimization (PSO) to the grounding grid planning which compares to the application of genetic algorithm (GA). Firstly, based on IEEE Std.80, the cost function of the grounding grid and the constraints of ground potential rise, step voltage and touch voltage are constructed for formulating the optimization problem of grounding grid planning. Secondly, GA and PSO algorithms for obtaining optimal solution of grounding grid are developed. Finally, a case of grounding grid planning is shown the superiority and availability of the PSO algorithm and proposal planning results of grounding grid in cost and computational time.

Keywords: Genetic algorithm, particle swarm optimization, grounding grid.

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Authors: Priyanka Paliwal, N.P. Patidar

Abstract:

Distributed Power generation has gained a lot of attention in recent times due to constraints associated with conventional power generation and new advancements in DG technologies .The need to operate the power system economically and with optimum levels of reliability has further led to an increase in interest in Distributed Generation. However it is important to place Distributed Generator on an optimum location so that the purpose of loss minimization and voltage regulation is dully served on the feeder. This paper investigates the impact of DG units installation on electric losses, reliability and voltage profile of distribution networks. In this paper, our aim would be to find optimal distributed generation allocation for loss reduction subjected to constraint of voltage regulation in distribution network. The system is further analyzed for increased levels of Reliability. Distributed Generator offers the additional advantage of increase in reliability levels as suggested by the improvements in various reliability indices such as SAIDI, CAIDI and AENS. Comparative studies are performed and related results are addressed. An analytical technique is used in order to find the optimal location of Distributed Generator. The suggested technique is programmed under MATLAB software. The results clearly indicate that DG can reduce the electrical line loss while simultaneously improving the reliability of the system.

Keywords: AENS, CAIDI, Distributed Generation, lossreduction, Reliability, SAIDI

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Authors: Masato Sasaki, Masayoshi Yamamoto

Abstract:

The majority of wireless power transfer (WPT) systems transfer power in a directional manner. This paper describes a discrete exciting voltage control technique for WPT via magnetic resonant coupling with two orthogonal transmitter coils (2D omni-directional WPT system) which can maximize the power transfer efficiency in response to the change of coupling status. The theory allows the equations of the efficiency of the system to be determined at all the rate of the mutual inductance. The calculated results are included to confirm the advantage to one directional WPT system and the validity of the theory and the equations.

Keywords: Wireless power transfer, orthogonal, omni-directional, efficiency.

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Authors: Wael M. El-Mamlouk, Metwally A. El-Sharkawy, Hossam. E. Mostafa

Abstract:

In this paper, we analyze and test a scheme for the estimation of electrical fundamental frequency signals from the harmonic load current and voltage signals. The scheme was based on using two different Multi Layer Artificial Neural Networks (ML-ANN) one for the current and the other for the voltage. This study also analyzes and tests the effect of choosing the optimum artificial neural networks- sizes which determine the quality and accuracy of the estimation of electrical fundamental frequency signals. The simulink tool box of the Matlab program for the simulation of the test system and the test of the neural networks has been used.

Keywords: Harmonics, Neural Networks, Modeling, Simulation, Active filters, electric Networks.

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Authors: N. H. Adenan, M. S. M. Noorani

Abstract:

River flow prediction is an essential tool to ensure proper management of water resources and the optimal distribution of water to consumers. This study presents an analysis and prediction by using nonlinear prediction method with monthly river flow data for Tanjung Tualang from 1976 to 2006. Nonlinear prediction method involves the reconstruction of phase space and local linear approximation approach. The reconstruction of phase space involves the reconstruction of one-dimension (the observed 287 months of data) in a multidimensional phase space to reveal the dynamics of the system. The revenue of phase space reconstruction is used to predict the next 72 months. A comparison of prediction performance based on correlation coefficient (CC) and root mean square error (RMSE) was employed to compare prediction performance for the nonlinear prediction method, ARIMA and SVM. Prediction performance comparisons show that the prediction results using the nonlinear prediction method are better than ARIMA and SVM. Therefore, the results of this study could be used to develop an efficient water management system to optimize the allocation of water resources.

Keywords: River flow, nonlinear prediction method, phase space, local linear approximation.

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