Search results for: Economic impact
Commenced in January 2007
Frequency: Monthly
Edition: International
Paper Count: 3532

Search results for: Economic impact

2872 Local Investment Climate and the Role of (Sustainable) FDI: The Case of Georgia

Authors: Vakhtang Charaia

Abstract:

The article focuses on the role of FDI in Georgia’s economic development for the last decade. To attract as much FDI as possible a proper investment climate should be on the place - institutional, policy and regulatory environment. Well developed investment climate is the chance and motivation for both, local economy and foreign companies, to generate maximum income, create new work places and improve the quality of life. FDI trend is one of the best indicators of country’s economic sustainability and its attractiveness. Especially for small and developing countries, the amount of FDI matters, therefore most of such countries are trying to compete with each other through improving their investment climate according to different world famous indexes. As a result of impressive reforms since 2003, Georgian economy was benefited with large invasion of FDI, however the level of per capita GDP is still law in comparison to Eastern European countries and it should be improved. The main idea of the paper is to show a real linkage between FDI and employment ration, on the case of Georgian economy.

Keywords: Foreign Direct Investment, Sustainable Development, Corruption, Employment/Unemployment.

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2871 Technology Diffusion and Inclusive Development in Africa: A System Dynamics Perspective

Authors: M. Kaggwa

Abstract:

Technology or lack of it will play an important role in Africa-s effort to achieve inclusive development. Although a key determinant of competitiveness, new technology can exacerbate exclusion of the majority from the mainstream economic activities. To minimise potential technology exclusion while leveraging its critical role in African-s development, requires insight into technology diffusion process. Using system dynamics approach, a technology diffusion model is presented. The frequency of interaction of people exposed to and those not exposed to technology, and the technology adoption rate - the fraction of people who embrace new technologies once they are exposed, are identified as the broad factors critical to technology diffusion to wider society enabling more people to be part of the economic growth process. Based on simulation results, it is recommends that these two broad factors should form part of national policy aimed at achieving inclusive and sustainable development in Africa.

Keywords: Inclusive Development, System Dynamics, Technology, Technology diffusion.

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2870 The Effects of Quality of Web-Based Applications on Competitive Advantage: An Empirical Study in Commercial Banks in Jordan

Authors: Faisal Asad Aburub

Abstract:

Many organizations are investing in web applications and technologies in order to be competitive, some of them could not achieve its goals. The quality of web-based applications could play an important role for organizations to be competitive. So the aim of this study is to investigate the impact of quality of web-based applications to achieve a competitive advantage. A new model has been developed. An empirical investigation was performed on a banking sector in Jordan to test the new model. The results show that impact of web-based applications on competitive advantage is significant. Finally, further work is planned to validate and evaluate the proposed model using several domains.

Keywords: Competitive advantage, web-based applications, empirical investigation.

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2869 Identifying Factors for Evaluating Livability Potential within a Metropolis: A Case of Kolkata

Authors: Arpan Paul, Joy Sen

Abstract:

Livability is a holistic concept whose factors include many complex characteristics and levels of interrelationships among them. It has been considered as people’s need for public amenities and is recognized as a major element to create social welfare. The concept and principles of livability are essential for recognizing the significance of community well-being. The attributes and dimensions of livability are also important aspects to measure the overall quality of environment. Livability potential is mainly considered as the capacity to develop into the overall well-being of an urban area in future. The intent of the present study is to identify the prime factors to evaluate livability potential within a metropolis. For ground level case study, the paper has selected Kolkata Metropolitan Area (KMA) as it has wide physical, social, and economic variations within it. The initial part of the study deals with detailed literature review on livability and its significance of evaluating its potential within a metropolis. The next segment is dedicated for identifying the primary factors which would evaluate livability potential within a metropolis. In pursuit of identifying primary factors, which have a direct impact on urban livability, this study delineates the metropolitan area into various clusters, having their distinct livability potential. As a final outcome of the study, variations of livability potential of those selected clusters are highlighted to explain the complexity of the metropolitan development.

Keywords: Livability potential, metropolis, Kolkata Metropolitan Area (KMA), well-being.

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2868 Estimating the Technological Deviation Impact on the Value of the Output Parameter of the Induction Converter

Authors: Marinka K. Baghdasaryan, Siranush M. Muradyan, Avgen A. Gasparyan

Abstract:

Based on the experimental data, the impact of resistance and reactance of the winding, as well as the magnetic permeability of the magnetic circuit steel material on the value of the electromotive force of the induction converter is investigated. The obtained results allow estimating the main technological spreads and determining the maximum level of the electromotive force change. By the method of experiment planning, the expression of a polynomial for the electromotive force which can be used to estimate the adequacy of mathematical models to be used at the investigation and design of induction converters is obtained.

Keywords: Induction converter, electromotive force, expectation, technological spread, deviation, planning an experiment, polynomial, confidence level.

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2867 Land Reclamation Using Waste as Fill Material: A Case Study in Jakarta

Authors: Q. Han, W. Schaefer, N. Barry

Abstract:

To coop with urbanization issues and the economic need for expansion, the city of Jakarta is planning to reclaim more land in the Jakarta Bay. However, the reclamation activities of some islands have barely started and already the developers are facing difficulties in finding sufficient quantities of sand as fill material. When addressing the problem of sand scarcity in the case of Jakarta where, an excess of waste production, an inadequate solid waste management system and a lack of dumping ground pose a major problem, it is hard not to think of the use of waste as alternative fill material. This paper analyses the possibilities of using waste in the land reclamation projects, considering the governmental, social, environmental and economic context of the city. The results identify types of waste that could be used, ways of using those types of waste and implementation conditions for the city of Jakarta.

Keywords: Waste Management systems, Land reclamation, Multi Criteria Analysis, Scenario planning.

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2866 Battery Energy Storage System Economic Benefits Assessment on a Network Frequency Control

Authors: Kréhi Serge Agbli, Samuel Portebos, Michaël Salomon

Abstract:

Here a methodology is considered aiming at evaluating the economic benefit of the provision of a primary frequency control unit using a Battery Energy Storage System (BESS). In this methodology, two control types (basic and hysteresis) are implemented and the corresponding minimum energy storage system power allowing to maintain the frequency drop inside a given threshold under a given contingency is identified and compared using DigSilent’s PowerFactory software. Following this step, the corresponding energy storage capacity (in MWh) is calculated. As PowerFactory is dedicated to dynamic simulation for transient analysis, a first order model related to the IEEE 9 bus grid used for the analysis under PowerFactory is characterized and implemented on MATLAB-Simulink. Primary frequency control is simulated using the two control types over one-month grid's frequency deviation data on this Simulink model. This simulation results in the energy throughput both basic and hysteresis BESSs. It emerges that the 15 minutes operation band of the battery capacity allocated to frequency control is sufficient under the considered disturbances. A sensitivity analysis on the width of the control deadband is then performed for the two control types. The deadband width variation leads to an identical sizing with the hysteresis control showing a better frequency control at the cost of a higher delivered throughput compared to the basic control. An economic analysis comparing the cost of the sized BESS to the potential revenues is then performed.

Keywords: Battery Energy Storage System, electrical network frequency stability, frequency control unit, PowerFactory.

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2865 Flood Predicting in Karkheh River Basin Using Stochastic ARIMA Model

Authors: Karim Hamidi Machekposhti, Hossein Sedghi, Abdolrasoul Telvari, Hossein Babazadeh

Abstract:

Floods have huge environmental and economic impact. Therefore, flood prediction is given a lot of attention due to its importance. This study analysed the annual maximum streamflow (discharge) (AMS or AMD) of Karkheh River in Karkheh River Basin for flood predicting using ARIMA model. For this purpose, we use the Box-Jenkins approach, which contains four-stage method model identification, parameter estimation, diagnostic checking and forecasting (predicting). The main tool used in ARIMA modelling was the SAS and SPSS software. Model identification was done by visual inspection on the ACF and PACF. SAS software computed the model parameters using the ML, CLS and ULS methods. The diagnostic checking tests, AIC criterion, RACF graph and RPACF graphs, were used for selected model verification. In this study, the best ARIMA models for Annual Maximum Discharge (AMD) time series was (4,1,1) with their AIC value of 88.87. The RACF and RPACF showed residuals’ independence. To forecast AMD for 10 future years, this model showed the ability of the model to predict floods of the river under study in the Karkheh River Basin. Model accuracy was checked by comparing the predicted and observation series by using coefficient of determination (R2).

Keywords: Time series modelling, stochastic processes, ARIMA model, Karkheh River.

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2864 Analyzing the Impact of DCF and PCF on WLAN Network Standards 802.11a, 802.11b and 802.11g

Authors: Amandeep Singh Dhaliwal

Abstract:

Networking solutions, particularly wireless local area networks have revolutionized the technological advancement. Wireless Local Area Networks (WLANs) have gained a lot of popularity as they provide location-independent network access between computing devices. There are a number of access methods used in Wireless Networks among which DCF and PCF are the fundamental access methods. This paper emphasizes on the impact of DCF and PCF access mechanisms on the performance of the IEEE 802.11a, 802.11b and 802.11g standards. On the basis of various parameters viz. throughput, delay, load etc performance is evaluated between these three standards using above mentioned access mechanisms. Analysis revealed a superior throughput performance with low delays for 802.11g standard as compared to 802.11 a/b standard using both DCF and PCF access methods.

Keywords: DCF, IEEE, PCF, WLAN.

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2863 Techno-Economics Study to Select Optimum Desalination Plant for Asalouyeh Combined Cycle Power Plant in Iran

Authors: Z. Gomar, H. Heidary, M. Davoudi

Abstract:

This research deals with techno economic analysis to select the most economic desalination method for Asalouyeh combined cycle power plant . Due to lack of fresh water, desalination of sea water is necessary to provide required DM water of Power Plant. The most common desalination methods are RO, MSF, MED, and MED–TVC. In this research, methods of RO, MED, and MED– TVC have been compared. Simulation results show that recovery of heat of exhaust gas of main stack is optimum case for providing DM water required for injected steam of MED desalination. This subject is very important because of improving thermal efficiency of power plant using extra heat recovery. Also, it has been shown that by adding 3 rows of finned tube to de-aerator evaporator, which is very simple and low cost, required steam for generating 5200 m3/day of desalinated water is obtainable.

Keywords: Desalination, MED, thermodynamic simulation, combined cycle power plant.

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2862 Novel and Different Definitions for Fuzzy Union and Intersection Operations

Authors: Aarthi Chandramohan, M. V. C. Rao

Abstract:

This paper presents three new methodologies for the basic operations, which aim at finding new ways of computing union (maximum) and intersection (minimum) membership values by taking into effect the entire membership values in a fuzzy set. The new methodologies are conceptually simple and easy from the application point of view and are illustrated with a variety of problems such as Cartesian product of two fuzzy sets, max –min composition of two fuzzy sets in different product spaces and an application of an inverted pendulum to determine the impact of the new methodologies. The results clearly indicate a difference based on the nature of the fuzzy sets under consideration and hence will be highly useful in quite a few applications where different values have significant impact on the behavior of the system.

Keywords: Centroid, fuzzy set operations, intersection, triangular norms , triangular S-norms, union.

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2861 Investments Attractiveness via Combinatorial Optimization Ranking

Authors: Ivan C. Mustakerov, Daniela I. Borissova

Abstract:

The paper proposes an approach to ranking a set of potential countries to invest taking into account the investor point of view about importance of different economic indicators. For the goal, a ranking algorithm that contributes to rational decision making is proposed. The described algorithm is based on combinatorial optimization modeling and repeated multi-criteria tasks solution. The final result is list of countries ranked in respect of investor preferences about importance of economic indicators for investment attractiveness. Different scenarios are simulated conforming to different investors preferences. A numerical example with real dataset of indicators is solved. The numerical testing shows the applicability of the described algorithm. The proposed approach can be used with any sets of indicators as ranking criteria reflecting different points of view of investors. 

Keywords: Combinatorial optimization modeling, economics investment attractiveness, economics ranking algorithm, multi-criteria problems.

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2860 The Impact of Metacognitive Knowledge and Experience on Top Management Team Diversity and Small to Medium Enterprises Performance

Authors: Jo Rhodes, Peter Lok, Zahra Sadeghinejad

Abstract:

The aim of this study is to determine the impact of metacognition on top management team members and firm performance based on full team integration. A survey of 1500 small to medium enterprises (SMEs) was initiated and 140 firms were obtained in this study (with response rate of 9%). The result showed that different metacognitive abilities of managers [knowledge and experience] could enhance team decision-making and problem solving, resulting in greater firm performance. This is a significant finding for SMEs because these organisations have small teams with owner leadership and entrepreneurial orientation.

Keywords: Metacognition, behavioural integration, top management team, performance.

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2859 Entrepreneurship Education as a Pre-Requisite for Graduate Entrepreneurship: A Study of Graduate Entrepreneurs in Yenagoa City

Authors: Kurotimi M. Fems, Francis D. W. Poazi, Helen Opigo

Abstract:

The concepts of entrepreneurship education together with graduate entrepreneurship have taken centre stage in many countries as a 21st century strategy for economic growth and development. Entrepreneurship education has been viewed as a pre-requisite tool for a more effective and successful business operation. This paper seeks to verify if entrepreneurship education is pre-requisite to graduate entrepreneurship, and to ascertain if such other factors as the need for achievement, competence and experience etc. also play a foundational role in the choice of a graduate becoming an entrepreneur. The scope of the research study is entrepreneurs within Yenagoa metropolis in Bayelsa state, Nigeria. The sample target is graduates engaged in entrepreneurship activities (graduates who own and run businesses). Stratified sampling technique was used and 101 responses were obtained from a total of 300 questionnaires issued. Bar chart, tables and percentages were used to analyze the collected data. The findings revealed that personality traits, situational circumstance, need for achievement and experience/competence were the foundational factors stimulating graduate entrepreneurs to engage in entrepreneurial pursuits. Of all, personality trait showed the highest score with 73 (73%) out of 101 entrepreneurs agreeing. Experience/Competence and situational circumstances followed behind with 66 (65%) and 63 (62.4%), respectively. Entrepreneurship education revealed the least score with 33 (32.3%) out of 101 participating entrepreneurs. All hope, however, is not lost, as this shows that something can be done to increase the impact of entrepreneurship education on graduate entrepreneurship.

Keywords: Creative destruction, entrepreneurs, entrepreneurship education, graduate entrepreneurship, pre-requisite.

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2858 The Patterns of Unemployment and the Geography of Social Housing

Authors: Sónia Alves

Abstract:

During the last few decades in the academic field, the debate has increased on the effects of social geography on the opportunities of socioeconomic integration. On one hand, it has been discussed how the contents of the urban structure and social geography affect not only the way people interact, but also their chances of social and economic integration. On the other hand, it has also been discussed how the urban structure is also constrained and transformed by the action of social actors. Without questioning the powerful influence of structural factors, related to the logic of the production system, labor markets, education and training, the research has shown the role played by place of residence in shaping individual outcomes such as unemployment. In the context of this debate the importance of territory of residence with respect to the problem of unemployment has been highlighted. Although statistics of unemployment have already demonstrated the unequal incidence of the phenomenon in social groups, the issue of uneven territorial impact on the phenomenon at intra-urban level remains relatively unknown. The purpose of this article is to show and to interpret the spatial patterns of unemployment in the city of Porto using GIS (Geographic Information System - GIS) technology. Under this analysis the overlap of the spatial patterns of unemployment with the spatial distribution of social housing, allows the discussion of the relationship that occurs between these patterns and the reasons that might explain the relative immutability of socioeconomic problems in some neighborhoods.

Keywords: Unemployment, area effects, urban planning, Porto.

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2857 Vehicle Risk Evaluation in Low Speed Accidents: Consequences for Relevant Test Scenarios

Authors: Philip Feig, Klaus Gschwendtner, Julian Schatz, Frank Diermeyer

Abstract:

Projects of accident research analysis are mostly focused on accidents involving personal damage. Property damage only has a high frequency of occurrence combined with high economic impact. This paper describes main influencing parameters for the extent of damage and presents a repair cost model. For a prospective evaluation method of the monetary effect of advanced driver assistance systems (ADAS), it is necessary to be aware of and quantify all influencing parameters. Furthermore, this method allows the evaluation of vehicle concepts in combination with an ADAS at an early point in time of the product development process. In combination with a property damage database and the introduced repair cost model relevant test scenarios for specific vehicle configurations and their individual property damage risk may be determined. Currently, equipment rates of ADAS are low and a purchase incentive for customers would be beneficial. The next ADAS generation will prevent property damage to a large extent or at least reduce damage severity. Both effects may be a purchasing incentive for the customer and furthermore contribute to increased traffic safety.

Keywords: Property damage analysis, effectiveness, ADAS, damage risk, accident research, accident scenarios.

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2856 Multi-Objective Fuzzy Model in Optimal Sitingand Sizing of DG for Loss Reduction

Authors: H. Shayeghi, B. Mohamadi

Abstract:

This paper presents a possibilistic (fuzzy) model in optimal siting and sizing of Distributed Generation (DG) for loss reduction and improve voltage profile in power distribution system. Multi-objective problem is developed in two phases. In the first one, the set of non-dominated planning solutions is obtained (with respect to the objective functions of fuzzy economic cost, and exposure) using genetic algorithm. In the second phase, one solution of the set of non-dominated solutions is selected as optimal solution, using a suitable max-min approach. This method can be determined operation-mode (PV or PQ) of DG. Because of considering load uncertainty in this paper, it can be obtained realistic results. The whole process of this method has been implemented in the MATLAB7 environment with technical and economic consideration for loss reduction and voltage profile improvement. Through numerical example the validity of the proposed method is verified.

Keywords: Fuzzy Power Flow, DG siting and sizing, LoadUncertainty, Multi-objective Possibilistic Model.

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2855 The Impact of Alumina Cement on Properties of Portland Cement Slurries and Mortars

Authors: Krzysztof Zieliński, Dariusz Kierzek

Abstract:

The addition of a small amount of alumina cement to Portland cement results in immediate setting, a rapid increase in the compressive strength and a clear increase of the adhesion to concrete substrate. This phenomenon is used, among others, for the production of liquid floor self-levelling compounds. Alumina cement is several times more expensive than Portland cement and is a component having a significant impact on prices of products manufactured with its use. For the production of liquid floor self-levelling compounds, low-alumina cement containing approximately 40% Al2O3 is normally used. The aim of the study was to determine the impact of Portland cement with the addition of alumina cement on the basic physical and mechanical properties of cement slurries and mortars. CEM I 42.5R and three types of alumina cement containing 40%, 50% and 70% of Al2O3 were used for the tests. Mixes containing 4%, 6%, 8%, 10% and 12% of different varieties of alumina cement were prepared; for which, the time of initial and final setting, compressive and flexural strength and adhesion to concrete substrate were determined. The analysis of the obtained test results showed that a similar immediate setting effect and clearly better adhesion strength can be obtained using the addition of 6% of high-alumina cement than 12% of low-alumina cement. As the prices of these cements are similar, this can give significant financial savings in the production of liquid floor self-levelling compounds.

Keywords: Alumina cement, immediate setting, compression strength, adhesion to substrate.

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2854 Web Application to Profiling Scientific Institutions through Citation Mining

Authors: Hector D. Cortes, Jesus A. del Rio, Esther O. Garcia, Miguel Robles

Abstract:

Recently the use of data mining to scientific bibliographic data bases has been implemented to analyze the pathways of the knowledge or the core scientific relevances of a laureated novel or a country. This specific case of data mining has been named citation mining, and it is the integration of citation bibliometrics and text mining. In this paper we present an improved WEB implementation of statistical physics algorithms to perform the text mining component of citation mining. In particular we use an entropic like distance between the compression of text as an indicator of the similarity between them. Finally, we have included the recently proposed index h to characterize the scientific production. We have used this web implementation to identify users, applications and impact of the Mexican scientific institutions located in the State of Morelos.

Keywords: Citation Mining, Text Mining, Science Impact

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2853 “Green Growth” in Kazakhstan: Political Leadership, Business Strategies and Environmental Fiscal Reform for Competitive System Change

Authors: A. S. Salimzhanova, J. C. Sardinas, O. A. Yanovskaya

Abstract:

The objective of this research work is to discuss the concept of “green growth” in the Republic of Kazakhstan introduced by its government in the “National Sustainable Development Strategy” with the objective of transition to a resource-efficient, “green economy.” We believe that emerging economies like Kazakhstan can pursue a cleaner and more efficient development path by introducing an environmental tax system based on resource consumption rather than only income and labor. The key issues discussed in this article are the eco-efficiency, which refers to closing the gap between economic and ecological efficiencies, and the structural change of the economy toward “green growth.” We also strongly believe that studying the experience of East Asian countries on “green reform” including eco-innovation and “green solutions” in business is essential to the case of Kazakhstan. All of these will raise the status of Kazakhstan to the level of one of the thirty developed countries over the next decades.

Keywords: Economic strategy, green growth, green solutions, natural resource management, environmental tax system.

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2852 Evaluation of Corrosion Caused by Biogenic Sulfuric Acid (BSA) on the Concrete Structures of Sewerage Systems (Chemical Tests)

Authors: M. Cortés, E. Vera, O. Rojas

Abstract:

The research studies of the kinetics of the corrosion process that attacks concrete and occurs within sewerage systems agree on the amount of variables that interfere in the process. This study aims to check the impact of the pH levels of the corrosive environment and the concrete surface, the concentrations of chemical sulfuric acid, and in turn, measure the resistance of concrete to this attack under controlled laboratory conditions; it also aims to contribute to the development of further research related to the topic, in order to compare the impact of biogenic sulfuric acid and chemical sulfuric acid involvement on concrete structures, especially in scenarios such as sewerage systems.

Keywords: Acid Sulfuric, concrete, corrosion.

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2851 The Shifting Urban Role of Buildings’ Facades: A Diachronic Analysis of El Korba

Authors: Virginia Bassily, Sherif Goubran

Abstract:

In heritage conservation and revival, much of the focus is placed on the techniques and methods to preserve, restore, and revive heritage structures and locations. However, more attention needs to be drawn to how deterioration happens and its effect on the area’s character and socio-economic status. To this end, this research aims to examine the decline and its effect in the El Korba area in Heliopolis, Cairo, Egypt. El Korba was designed with a unique architectural character to stimulate social and economic life. However, the area has been on a path of physical deterioration that is corroding the social life on its streets. This research uses diachronic analysis in Ibrahim El-Lakkani Boulevard of El Korba based on a previously developed framework that connects buildings’ architectural features to the degree of social interaction in the street to document the changes that the building deterioration could have caused. Architectural features of the street level during both the original state (1906) and the current state (2021) are broken down and categorized in those six parameters to understand their decline or improvement over time. We find that the parameters that have decreased over the years and caused the deterioration are complexity and architectural character, permeability, territoriality and personalization, and physical comfort.  Based on these findings, revival projects can focus on physical parameters that create synergistic benefits by preserving and renewing heritage locations and revitalizing their socio-economic potential.

Keywords: Architectural character, heritage building conservation, enclosure, ground-floor use, El Korba, visual and physical permeability, personalization, physical comfort, social life, territoriality.

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2850 Net Interest Margin of Cooperative Banks in Low Interest Rate Environment

Authors: Karolína Vozková, Matěj Kuc

Abstract:

This paper deals with the impact of decrease in interest rates on the performance of commercial and cooperative banks in the Eurozone measured by net interest margin. The analysis was performed on balanced dataset of 268 commercial and 726 cooperative banks spanning the 2008-2015 period. We employed Fixed Effects estimation panel method. As expected, we found a negative relationship between market rates and net interest margin. Our results suggest that the impact of negative interest income differs across individual banking business models. More precisely, those cooperative banks were much more hit by the decrease of market interest rates which might be due to their ownership structure and more restrictive business regulation.

Keywords: Cooperative banks, performance, negative interest rates, risk management.

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2849 Optimal Portfolio Selection in a DC Pension with Multiple Contributors and the Impact of Stochastic Additional Voluntary Contribution on the Optimal Investment Strategy

Authors: Edikan E. Akpanibah, Okwigbedi Oghen’Oro

Abstract:

In this paper, we studied the optimal portfolio selection in a defined contribution (DC) pension scheme with multiple contributors under constant elasticity of variance (CEV) model and the impact of stochastic additional voluntary contribution on the investment strategies. We assume that the voluntary contributions are stochastic and also consider investments in a risk free asset and a risky asset to increase the expected returns of the contributing members. We derived a stochastic differential equation which consists of the members’ monthly contributions and the invested fund and obtained an optimized problem with the help of Hamilton Jacobi Bellman equation. Furthermore, we find an explicit solution for the optimal investment strategy with stochastic voluntary contribution using power transformation and change of variables method and the corresponding optimal fund size was obtained. We discussed the impact of the voluntary contribution on the optimal investment strategy with numerical simulations and observed that the voluntary contribution reduces the optimal investment strategy of the risky asset.

Keywords: DC pension fund, Hamilton-Jacobi-Bellman, optimal investment strategies, power transformation method, stochastic, voluntary contribution.

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2848 Optimizing Forecasting for Indonesia's Coal and Palm Oil Exports: A Comparative Analysis of ARIMA, ANN, and LSTM Methods

Authors: Mochammad Dewo, Sumarsono Sudarto

Abstract:

The Exponential Triple Smoothing Algorithm approach nowadays, which is used to anticipate the export value of Indonesia's two major commodities, coal and palm oil, has a Mean Percentage Absolute Error (MAPE) value of 30-50%, which may be considered as a "reasonable" forecasting mistake. Forecasting errors of more than 30% shall have a domino effect on industrial output, as extra production adds to raw material, manufacturing and storage expenses. Whereas, reaching an "excellent" classification with an error value of less than 10% will provide new investors and exporters with confidence in the commercial development of related sectors. Industrial growth will bring out a positive impact on economic development. It can be applied for other commodities if the forecast error is less than 10%. The purpose of this project is to create a forecasting technique that can produce precise forecasting results with an error of less than 10%. This research analyzes forecasting methods such as ARIMA (Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average), ANN (Artificial Neural Network) and LSTM (Long-Short Term Memory). By providing a MAPE of 1%, this study reveals that ANN is the most successful strategy for forecasting coal and palm oil commodities in Indonesia.

Keywords: ANN, Artificial Neural Network, ARIMA, Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average, export value, forecast, LSTM, Long Short Term Memory.

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2847 A Utilitarian Approach to Modeling Information Flows in Social Networks

Authors: Usha Sridhar, Sridhar Mandyam

Abstract:

We propose a multi-agent based utilitarian approach to model and understand information flows in social networks that lead to Pareto optimal informational exchanges. We model the individual expected utility function of the agents to reflect the net value of information received. We show how this model, adapted from a theorem by Karl Borch dealing with an actuarial Risk Exchange concept in the Insurance industry, can be used for social network analysis. We develop a utilitarian framework that allows us to interpret Pareto optimal exchanges of value as potential information flows, while achieving a maximization of a sum of expected utilities of information of the group of agents. We examine some interesting conditions on the utility function under which the flows are optimal. We illustrate the promise of this new approach to attach economic value to information in networks with a synthetic example.

Keywords: Borch's Theorem , Economic value of information, Information Exchange, Pareto Optimal Solution, Social Networks, Utility Functions

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2846 Energy and Economic Analysis of Heat Recovery from Boiler Exhaust Flue Gas

Authors: Kemal Comakli, Meryem Terhan

Abstract:

In this study, the potential of heat recovery from waste flue gas was examined in 60 MW district heating system of a university, and fuel saving was aimed by using the recovered heat in the system as a source again. Various scenarios are intended to make use of waste heat. For this purpose, actual operation data of the system were taken. Besides, the heat recovery units that consist of heat exchangers such as flue gas condensers, economizers or air pre-heaters were designed theoretically for each scenario. Energy analysis of natural gas-fired boiler’s exhaust flue gas in the system, and economic analysis of heat recovery units to predict payback periods were done. According to calculation results, the waste heat loss ratio from boiler flue gas in the system was obtained as average 16%. Thanks to the heat recovery units, thermal efficiency of the system can be increased, and fuel saving can be provided. At the same time, a huge amount of green gas emission can be decreased by installing the heat recovery units.

Keywords: Heat recovery from flue gas, energy analysis of flue gas, economical analysis, payback period.

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2845 The Effect of Soil Surface Slope on Splash Distribution under Water Drop Impact

Authors: H. Aissa, L. Mouzai, M. Bouhadef

Abstract:

The effects of down slope steepness on soil splash distribution under a water drop impact have been investigated in this study. The equipment used are the burette to simulate a water drop, a splash cup filled with sandy soil which forms the source area and a splash board to collect the ejected particles. The results found in this study have shown that the apparent mass increased with increasing downslope angle following a linear regression equation with high coefficient of determination. In the same way, the radial soil splash distribution over the distance has been analyzed statistically, and an exponential function was the best fit of the relationship for the different slope angles. The curves and the regressions equations validate the well known FSDF and extend the theory of Van Dijk.

Keywords: Splash distribution, water drop, slope steepness, soil detachment.

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2844 An Erosion-based Modeling of Abrasive Waterjet Turning

Authors: I. Zohourkari, M. Zohoor

Abstract:

In this paper, an erosion-based model for abrasive waterjet (AWJ) turning process is presented. By using modified Hashish erosion model, the volume of material removed by impacting of abrasive particles to surface of the rotating cylindrical specimen is estimated and radius reduction at each rotation is calculated. Different to previous works, the proposed model considers the continuous change in local impact angle due to change in workpiece diameter, axial traverse rate of the jet, the abrasive particle roundness and density. The accuracy of the proposed model is examined by experimental tests under various traverse rates. The final diameters estimated by the proposed model are in good accordance with experiments.

Keywords: Abrasive, Erosion, impact, Particle, Waterjet, Turning.

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2843 Wind-Induced Phenomenon in a Closed Water Area with Floating-Leaved Plant

Authors: Akinori Ozaki

Abstract:

In this study, in order to clarify wind-induced phenomena, especially vertical mixing of density stratification in a closed water area with floating-leaved plants, we conducted hydraulic experiments on wind flow characteristics, wind wave characteristics, entrainment phenomena and turbulent structure by using a wind tunnel test tank and simulated floating-leaved plants. From the experimental results of wind flow and wind wave characteristics, we quantified the impact of the occupancy rate of the plants on their resistance characteristics. From the experimental results of entrainment phenomena, we defined the parameter that could explain the magnitude of mixing between the density stratifications, and quantified the impact of the occupancy rate on vertical mixing between stratifications. From the experimental results of the turbulent structure of the upper layer, we clarified the differences in small-scale turbulence components at each occupancy rate and quantified the impact of the occupancy rate on the turbulence characteristics. For a summary of this study, we theoretically quantified wind-induced entrainment phenomena in a closed water area with luxuriant growth of floating-leaved plants. The results indicated that the impact of luxuriant growth of floating-leaved plants in a closed water body could be seen in the difference in small-scale fluid characteristics, and these characteristics could be expressed using the small-scale turbulent components.

Keywords: Density Stratification, Floating-leaved Plant, Wind-induced Entrainment Phenomenon, Turbulent Structure

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