Search results for: Adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system

Authors: Kai Häussermann, Christoph Hubig, Paul Levi, Frank Leymann, Oliver Siemoneit, Matthias Wieland, Oliver Zweigle

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Using spatial models as a shared common basis of information about the environment for different kinds of contextaware systems has been a heavily researched topic in the last years. Thereby the research focused on how to create, to update, and to merge spatial models so as to enable highly dynamic, consistent and coherent spatial models at large scale. In this paper however, we want to concentrate on how context-aware applications could use this information so as to adapt their behavior according to the situation they are in. The main idea is to provide the spatial model infrastructure with a situation recognition component based on generic situation templates. A situation template is – as part of a much larger situation template library – an abstract, machinereadable description of a certain basic situation type, which could be used by different applications to evaluate their situation. In this paper, different theoretical and practical issues – technical, ethical and philosophical ones – are discussed important for understanding and developing situation dependent systems based on situation templates. A basic system design is presented which allows for the reasoning with uncertain data using an improved version of a learning algorithm for the automatic adaption of situation templates. Finally, for supporting the development of adaptive applications, we present a new situation-aware adaptation concept based on workflows.

Keywords: context-awareness, ethics, facilitation of system use through workflows, situation recognition and learning based on situation templates and situation ontology's, theory of situationaware systems

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Authors: M. Mazhar Manzoor, Nasar.A, A. Sattar

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In the open space of decision support system the mental impression of a manager-s decision has been the subject of large importance than the ordinary famous one, when helped by decision support system. Much of this study is an attempt to realize the relation of decision support system usage and decision outcomes that governs the system. For example, several researchers have proposed so many different models to analyze the linkage between decision support system processes and results of decision making. This study draws the important relation of manager-s mental approach with the use of decision support system. The findings of this paper are theoretical attempts to provide Decision Support System (DSS) in a way to exhibit and promote the learning in semi structured area. The proposed model shows the points of one-s learning improvements and maintains a theoretical approach in order to explore the DSS contribution in enhancing the decision forming and governing the system.

Keywords: Decision Support System , Learning Organization,

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Authors: Cai Guoqiang, Jia Limin, Zhou Liming, Liang yu, Li xi

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This paper analysis the integrated use of safety monitoring with the domestic and international latest research on rail safety protection system, and focus on the implementation of an organic whole system, with the monitoring and early warning, risk assessment, predictive control and emergency rescue system. The system framework, contents and system structure of Security system is proposed completely. It-s pointed out that the Security system is a negative feedback system composed of by safety monitoring and warning system, risk assessment and emergency rescue system. Safety monitoring and warning system focus on the monitoring target monitoring, early warning, tracking, integration of decision-making, for objective and subjective risks factors. Risk assessment system analysis the occurrence of a major Security risk mechanism, determines the standard of the future short, medium and long term safety conditions, and give prop for development of safety indicators, accident analysis and safety standards. Emergency rescue system is with the goal of rapid and effective rescue work for accident, to minimize casualties and property losses.

Keywords: rail safety protection, monitoring and early warning, risk assessment, emergency rescue.

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Authors: S. Abdollahi Pour, M. Saneei

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This paper propose a new circuit design which monitor total leakage current during standby mode and generates the optimal reverse body bias voltage, by using the adaptive body bias (ABB) technique to compensate die-to-die parameter variations. Design details of power monitor are examined using simulation framework in 65nm and 32nm BTPM model CMOS process. Experimental results show the overhead of proposed circuit in terms of its power consumption is about 10 μW for 32nm technology and about 12 μW for 65nm technology at the same power supply voltage as the core power supply. Moreover the results show that our proposed circuit design is not far sensitive to the temperature variations and also process variations. Besides, uses the simple blocks which offer good sensitivity, high speed, the continuously feedback loop.

Keywords: leakage current, leakage power monitor, body biasing, low power

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Authors: Ahmed ElShafee, Karim Alaa Hamed

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This paper presents a design and prototype implementation of new home automation system that uses WiFi technology as a network infrastructure connecting its parts. The proposed system consists of two main components; the first part is the server (web server), which presents system core that manages, controls, and monitors users- home. Users and system administrator can locally (LAN) or remotely (internet) manage and control system code. Second part is hardware interface module, which provides appropriate interface to sensors and actuator of home automation system. Unlike most of available home automation system in the market the proposed system is scalable that one server can manage many hardware interface modules as long as it exists on WiFi network coverage. System supports a wide range of home automation devices like power management components, and security components. The proposed system is better from the scalability and flexibility point of view than the commercially available home automation systems.

Keywords: Home automation, Wireless LAN, WiFi, MicroControllers

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Authors: Ayesha Batool, Saghir Ahmad, Abid Hussain Ch.

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The art of the examination is probably the most difficult one in the whole range of educational practices. Semester system is the system of examination, which is set with an institute by its own teachers. Annual system is the system of examination, which is constructed and administrated by some agency outside the institute, it enables the teacher to estimate the effectiveness of the instruction, and students to estimate the progress made by them. On the other hand, semester system of examinations requires following the curriculum strictly and methods of teaching are to be employed by the choice of teachers. The main purpose of the study was to investigate university students’ perceptions regarding the effectiveness of semester system and annual system. The study was quantitative in nature. The sample consisted of 200 students. A five point Likert type scale was used to collect the data. The statistical measures like frequencies, mean, standard deviation, and One Way ANOVA test were applied to analyze the data. The major findings of the study indicated that in semester system students do not spend much time in political activities and develop their study habits. It also revealed that annual system of examination does not satisfy the educational aspirations of the students.

Keywords: Effectiveness, semester system, annual system.

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Authors: Sajjad Farashi, Mohammadjavad Abolhassani, Mostafa Taghavi Kani

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Information in the nervous system is coded as firing patterns of electrical signals called action potential or spike so an essential step in analysis of neural mechanism is detection of action potentials embedded in the neural data. There are several methods proposed in the literature for such a purpose. In this paper a novel method based on empirical mode decomposition (EMD) has been developed. EMD is a decomposition method that extracts oscillations with different frequency range in a waveform. The method is adaptive and no a-priori knowledge about data or parameter adjusting is needed in it. The results for simulated data indicate that proposed method is comparable with wavelet based methods for spike detection. For neural signals with signal-to-noise ratio near 3 proposed methods is capable to detect more than 95% of action potentials accurately.

Keywords: EMD, neural data processing, spike detection, wavelet decomposition.

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Authors: Alia Alghosoun, Nabil El Moçayd, Mohammed Seaid

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Modeling dam-break flows over non-flat beds requires an accurate representation of the topography which is the main source of uncertainty in the model. Therefore, developing robust and accurate techniques for reconstructing topography in this class of problems would reduce the uncertainty in the flow system. In many hydraulic applications, experimental techniques have been widely used to measure the bed topography. In practice, experimental work in hydraulics may be very demanding in both time and cost. Meanwhile, computational hydraulics have served as an alternative for laboratory and field experiments. Unlike the forward problem, the inverse problem is used to identify the bed parameters from the given experimental data. In this case, the shallow water equations used for modeling the hydraulics need to be rearranged in a way that the model parameters can be evaluated from measured data. However, this approach is not always possible and it suffers from stability restrictions. In the present work, we propose an adaptive optimal control technique to numerically identify the underlying bed topography from a given set of free-surface observation data. In this approach, a minimization function is defined to iteratively determine the model parameters. The proposed technique can be interpreted as a fractional-stage scheme. In the first stage, the forward problem is solved to determine the measurable parameters from known data. In the second stage, the adaptive control Ensemble Kalman Filter is implemented to combine the optimality of observation data in order to obtain the accurate estimation of the topography. The main features of this method are on one hand, the ability to solve for different complex geometries with no need for any rearrangements in the original model to rewrite it in an explicit form. On the other hand, its achievement of strong stability for simulations of flows in different regimes containing shocks or discontinuities over any geometry. Numerical results are presented for a dam-break flow problem over non-flat bed using different solvers for the shallow water equations. The robustness of the proposed method is investigated using different numbers of loops, sensitivity parameters, initial samples and location of observations. The obtained results demonstrate high reliability and accuracy of the proposed techniques.

Keywords: Optimal control, ensemble Kalman Filter, topography reconstruction, data assimilation, shallow water equations.

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Authors: V. Ramnarain-Seetohul, J. Abdool Karim, A. Amir

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Almost all universities include some form of assignment in their courses. The assignments are either carried out in either in groups or individually. To effectively manage these submitted assignments, a well-designed assignment submission system is needed, hence the need for an online assignment submission system to facilitate the distribution, and collection of assignments on due dates. The objective of such system is to facilitate interaction of lecturers and students for assessment and grading purposes. The aim of this study was to create a web based online assignment submission system for University of Mauritius. The system was created to eliminate the traditional process of giving an assignment and collecting the answers for the assignment. Lecturers can also create automated assessment to assess the students online. Moreover, the online submission system consists of an automatic mailing system which acts as a reminder for students about the deadlines of the posted assignments. System was tested to measure its acceptance rate among both student and lecturers.

Keywords: Assignment, assessment, online, submission

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Authors: Peter Kostal, Karol Velisek

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Flexible manufacturing system is a system that is able to respond to changed conditions. In general, this flexibility is divided into two key categories and several subcategories. The first category is the so called machine flexibility which enables to make various products by the given machinery. The second category is routing flexibility enabling to execute the same operation by various machines. Flexible manufacturing systems usually consist of three main parts: CNC machine tools, transport system and control system. A higher level of flexible manufacturing systems is represented by the so called intelligent manufacturing systems.

Keywords: drawing-free manufacturing, flexible manufacturing system, industrial robot, material flow.

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Authors: Samir Avdakovic, Amir Nuhanovic

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Low frequency power oscillations may be triggered by many events in the system. Most oscillations are damped by the system, but undamped oscillations can lead to system collapse. Oscillations develop as a result of rotor acceleration/deceleration following a change in active power transfer from a generator. Like the operations limits, the monitoring of power system oscillating modes is a relevant aspect of power system operation and control. Unprevented low-frequency power swings can be cause of cascading outages that can rapidly extend effect on wide region. On this regard, a Wide Area Monitoring, Protection and Control Systems (WAMPCS) help in detecting such phenomena and assess power system dynamics security. The monitoring of power system electromechanical oscillations is very important in the frame of modern power system management and control. In first part, this paper compares the different technique for identification of power system oscillations. Second part analyzes possible identification some power system dynamics behaviors Using Wide Area Monitoring Systems (WAMS) based on Phasor Measurement Units (PMUs) and wavelet technique.

Keywords: Power system oscillations, Modal analysis, Prony, Wavelet, PMU, Wide Area Monitoring System.

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Authors: Chokri Slim

Abstract:

The neural network's performance can be measured by efficiency and accuracy. The major disadvantages of neural network approach are that the generalization capability of neural networks is often significantly low, and it may take a very long time to tune the weights in the net to generate an accurate model for a highly complex and nonlinear systems. This paper presents a novel Neuro-fuzzy architecture based on Extended Kalman filter. To test the performance and applicability of the proposed neuro-fuzzy model, simulation study of nonlinear complex dynamic system is carried out. The proposed method can be applied to an on-line incremental adaptive learning for the prediction of financial time series. A benchmark case studie is used to demonstrate that the proposed model is a superior neuro-fuzzy modeling technique.

Keywords: Neuro-fuzzy, Extended Kalman filter, nonlinear systems, financial time series.

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Authors: M. I. Youssef, A. E. Emam, M. Abd Elghany

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In this paper, a residue number arithmetic is used in direct sequence spread spectrum system, this system is evaluated and the bit error probability of this system is compared to that of non residue number system. The effect of channel bandwidth, PN sequences, multipath effect and modulation scheme are studied. A Matlab program is developed to measure the signal-to-noise ratio (SNR), and the bit error probability for the various schemes.

Keywords: Spread Spectrum, Direct sequence, Bit errorprobability and Residue number system.

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Authors: Kazunari Meguro, Shinichi Motomura, Takao Kawamura, Kazunori Sugahara

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We have developed a distributed asynchronous Web based training system. In order to improve the scalability and robustness of this system, all contents and a function are realized on mobile agents. These agents are distributed to computers, and they can use a Peer to Peer network that modified Content-Addressable Network. In this system, all computers offer the function and exercise by themselves. However, the system that all computers do the same behavior is not realistic. In this paper, as a solution of this issue, we present an e-Learning system that is composed of computers of different participation types. Enabling the computer of different participation types will improve the convenience of the system.

Keywords: Distributed Multimedia Systems, e-Learning, P2P, Mobile Agen

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Authors: Shaban Pazi, Chris Chatwin, Rupert Young, Philip Birch

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Internet infrastructures in most places of the world have been supported by the advancement of optical fiber technology, most notably wavelength division multiplexing (WDM) system. Optical technology by means of WDM system has revolutionized long distance data transport and has resulted in high data capacity, cost reductions, extremely low bit error rate, and operational simplification of the overall Internet infrastructure. This paper analyses and compares the system impairments, which occur at data transmission rates of 2.5Gb/s and 10 Gb/s per wavelength channel in our proposed optical WDM system for Internet infrastructure in Tanzania. The results show that the data transmission rate of 2.5 Gb/s has minimum system impairments compared with a rate of 10 Gb/s per wavelength channel, and achieves a sufficient system performance to provide a good Internet access service.

Keywords: Internet infrastructure, WDM system, standard single mode fibers, system impairments.

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Authors: Seiichi Tamagawa, Takao Kawamura, Toshihiko Sasama, Kazunori Sugahara

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Route bus system is one of fundamental transportation device for aged people and students, and has an important role in every province. However, passengers decrease year by year, therefore the authors have developed the system called "Bus-Net" as a web application to sustain the public transport. But there are two problems in Bus-Net. One is the user interface that does not consider the variety of the device, and the other is the path planning system that dose not correspond to the on-demand bus. Then, Bus-Net was improved to be able to utilize the variety of the device, and a new function corresponding to the on-demand bus was developed.

Keywords: Route Bus, Path Planning System, User Interface, Ondemandbus, Reservation system.

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Authors: H. Fabian Weber, Betina Szkudlarek

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The following study aims to outline, whether the perceptions of entrepreneurs about their entrepreneurial activities and the underlying meanings of their activities are universal or whether they vary systematically across cultures. In contrast to previous studies, the phenomenographical approach and the resulting findings of this study provide new insights into what constitutes entrepreneurship by drawing an inference from the perceptions of entrepreneurs in the United States and in Germany. Culture is shown to have an important impact on entrepreneurship, since the underlying meanings of entrepreneurship vary significantly among the two sample groups. Furthermore, the study sheds more light on the culturally contingent 'why' of entrepreneurship by looking at the internal motivations of individuals instead of exclusively focusing on character traits or external influences of the respective economic environments.

Keywords: Cross-Cultural Management, Entrepreneurship, Phenomenography, Qualitative Research.

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Authors: Ohn Zin Lin, Okka, Cho Cho Myint

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It is important to consider the effects of transformers on distribution system because they have the highest impact on system reliability. It is generally said that parallel operation of transformers (POT) can improve the system reliability. However, the estimation approach can be also considered for accuracy. In this paper, we propose a three-state components model and equations to determine the reliability improvement by POT, and cooperation of POT and distributed generation (DG). Based on the proposed model and techniques, the effect of POT is analyzed in four different tests with the consideration of conventional distribution system, distribution automation system (DAS) and DG. According to the results, the reliability is greatly improved by cooperation of POT, DAS and DG. The proposed model and methods are applicable to not only developing countries which have conventional distribution system but also developed countries in which DAS has already installed.

Keywords: Distribution system, reliability, dispersed generator, energy not supply, transformer parallel operation.

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Authors: V. Karri, W. K. Yap, J. Titchen

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A renewable energy system discussed in this paper is a stand-alone wind-hydrogen system for a remote island in Australia. The analysis of an existing wind-diesel power system was performed. Simulation technique was used to model the power system currently employed on the island, and simulated different configurations of additional hydrogen energy system. This study aims to determine the suitable hydrogen integrated configuration to setting up the prototype system for the island, which helps to reduce the diesel consumption on the island. A set of configurations for the hydrogen system and associated parameters that consists of wind turbines, electrolysers, hydrogen internal combustion engines, and storage tanks has been purposed. The simulation analyses various configurations that perfectly balances the system to meet the demand on the island.

Keywords: Hydrogen power systems, hydrogen internal combustion engine, modeling and simulation of hydrogen power systems.

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Authors: Zhou Yingkun, Xu Guorui, Wei Siming, Huang Yongzhang

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With the increasing of the penetration of renewable energy in power system, the whole inertia of the power system is declining, which will endanger the frequency stability of the power system. In order to enhance the inertia, virtual synchronous generator (VSG) has been proposed. In addition, the motor-generator pair (MGP) system is proposed to enhance grid inertia. Both of them need additional equipment to provide instantaneous energy, so the economic problem should be considered. In this paper, the basic working principle of MGP system and VSG are introduced firstly. Then, the technical characteristics and economic investment of MGP/VSG are compared by calculation and simulation. The results show that the MGP system can provide same inertia with less cost than VSG.

Keywords: High renewable energy penetration, inertia of power system, virtual synchronous generator, motor-generator pair system, techno-economic analysis.

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Authors: M. Wasy Akhtar

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Multi-modal film boiling simulations are carried out on adaptive octree grids. The liquid-vapor interface is captured using the volume-of-fluid framework adjusted to account for exchanges of mass, momentum, and energy across the interface. Surface tension effects are included using a volumetric source term in the momentum equations. The phase change calculations are conducted based on the exact location and orientation of the interface; however, the source terms are calculated using the mixture variables to be consistent with the one field formulation used to represent the entire fluid domain. The numerical model on octree representation of the computational grid is first verified using test cases including advection tests in severely deforming velocity fields, gravity-based instabilities and bubble growth in uniformly superheated liquid under zero gravity. The model is then used to simulate both single and multi-modal film boiling simulations. The octree grid is dynamically adapted in order to maintain the highest grid resolution on the instability fronts using markers of interface location, volume fraction, and thermal gradients. The method thus provides an efficient platform to simulate fluid instabilities with or without phase change in the presence of body forces like gravity or shear layer instabilities.

Keywords: Boiling flows, dynamic octree grids, heat transfer, interface capturing, phase change.

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Authors: Satien Janpla, Thanawan Boonpuck, Pattarapan Roonrakwit 

Abstract:

In this paper, we present a hamster knowledge system based on android application. The objective of this system is to advice user to upkeep and feed hamsters based on mobile application. We describe the design approaches and functional components of this system. The system was developed based on knowledge based of hamster experts. The results were divided by the research purposes into 2 parts: developing the mobile application for advice users and testing and evaluating the system. Black box technique was used to evaluate application performances and questionnaires were applied to measure user satisfaction with system usability by specialists and users.

Keywords: Hamster knowledge, android application, black box.

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Authors: Jalal Haghighat Monfared, Zahra Akbari

Abstract:

Today, business executives need to have useful information to make better decisions. Banks have also been using information tools so that they can direct the decision-making process in order to achieve their desired goals by rapidly extracting information from sources with the help of business intelligence. The research seeks to investigate whether there is a relationship between the quality of decision making and the business intelligence capabilities of Mellat Bank. Each of the factors studied is divided into several components, and these and their relationships are measured by a questionnaire. The statistical population of this study consists of all managers and experts of Mellat Bank's General Departments (including 190 people) who use commercial intelligence reports. The sample size of this study was 123 randomly determined by statistical method. In this research, relevant statistical inference has been used for data analysis and hypothesis testing. In the first stage, using the Kolmogorov-Smirnov test, the normalization of the data was investigated and in the next stage, the construct validity of both variables and their resulting indexes were verified using confirmatory factor analysis. Finally, using the structural equation modeling and Pearson's correlation coefficient, the research hypotheses were tested. The results confirmed the existence of a positive relationship between decision quality and business intelligence capabilities in Mellat Bank. Among the various capabilities, including data quality, correlation with other systems, user access, flexibility and risk management support, the flexibility of the business intelligence system was the most correlated with the dependent variable of the present research. This shows that it is necessary for Mellat Bank to pay more attention to choose the required business intelligence systems with high flexibility in terms of the ability to submit custom formatted reports. Subsequently, the quality of data on business intelligence systems showed the strongest relationship with quality of decision making. Therefore, improving the quality of data, including the source of data internally or externally, the type of data in quantitative or qualitative terms, the credibility of the data and perceptions of who uses the business intelligence system, improves the quality of decision making in Mellat Bank.

Keywords: Business intelligence, business intelligence capability, decision making, decision quality.

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Authors: Sanpachai Huvanandana

Abstract:

A human verification system is presented in this paper. The system consists of several steps: background subtraction, thresholding, line connection, region growing, morphlogy, star skelatonization, feature extraction, feature matching, and decision making. The proposed system combines an advantage of star skeletonization and simple statistic features. A correlation matching and probability voting have been used for verification, followed by a logical operation in a decision making stage. The proposed system uses small number of features and the system reliability is convincing.

Keywords: Human verification, object recognition, videounderstanding, segmentation.

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Authors: Santosh Kr. Choudhary

Abstract:

In this article, LQR based PID controller design for 3DOF helicopter system is investigated. The 3-DOF helicopter system is a benchmark laboratory model having strongly nonlinear characteristics and unstable dynamics which make the control of such system a challenging task. This article first presents the mathematical model of the 3DOF helicopter system and then illustrates the basic idea and technical formulation for controller design. The paper explains the simple approach for the approximation of PID design parameters from the LQR controller gain matrix. The simulation results show that the investigated controller has both static and dynamic performance, therefore the stability and the quick control effect can be obtained simultaneously for the 3DOF helicopter system.

Keywords: 3DOF helicopter system, PID controller, LQR controller, modeling, simulation.

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Authors: Moad Alhamaty , Ali Yazdian , Fathi Al-qadasi

Abstract:

A common way to elude the signature-based Network Intrusion Detection System is based upon changing a recognizable attack to an unrecognizable one via the IDS. For example, in order to evade sign accommodation with intrusion detection system markers, a hacker spilt the payload packet into many small pieces or hides them within messages. In this paper we try to model the main fragmentation attack and create a new module in the intrusion detection architecture system which recognizes the main fragmentation attacks through verification of integrity checking of TCP packet in order to prevent elusion of the system and also to announce the necessary alert to the system administrator.

Keywords: Intrusion detection system, Evasion techniques, Fragmentation attacks, TCP Packet integrity.

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Authors: A. Rubiano F, N. Olarte, D. Lara

Abstract:

This paper presents the design, implementation and results related to the storage system of medical information associated to the ECG (Electrocardiography) signal. The system includes the signal acquisition modules, the preprocessing and signal processing, followed by a module of transmission and reception of the signal, along with the storage and web display system of the medical platform. The tests were initially performed with this signal, with the purpose to include more biosignal under the same system in the future.

Keywords: Acquisition, ECG Signal, Storage, Web Platform

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Authors: L. McAllister, A. Dudau

Abstract:

This paper explores gender related barriers to interagency collaboration in statutory children safeguard partnerships against a theoretical framework that considers individuals, professions and organisations interacting as part of a complex adaptive system. We argue that gender-framed obstacles to effective communication between culturally discrepant agencies can ultimately impact on the effectiveness of policy delivery,. We focused our research on three partnership structures in Sefton Metropolitan Borough in order to observe how interactions occur, whether the agencies involved perceive their occupational environment as being gender affected and whether they believe this can hinder effective collaboration with other biased organisations. Our principal empirical findings indicate that there is a general awareness amongst professionals of the role that gender plays in each of the agencies reviewed, that gender may well constitute a barrier to effective communication, but there is a sense in which there is little scope for change in the short term. We aim to signal here, however, the need to change against the risk of service failure.

Keywords: Children's safeguard, gender, gendered professions, inter-agency collaboration, partnerships.

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Authors: Nurulhuda Ismail, Mas Idayu Md. Sabri

Abstract:

This paper presents a system overview of Mobile to Server Face Recognition, which is a face recognition application developed specifically for mobile phones. Images taken from mobile phone cameras lack of quality due to the low resolution of the cameras. Thus, a prototype is developed to experiment the chosen method. However, this paper shows a result of system backbone without the face recognition functionality. The result demonstrated in this paper indicates that the interaction between mobile phones and server is successfully working. The result shown before the database is completely ready. The system testing is currently going on using real images and a mock-up database to test the functionality of the face recognition algorithm used in this system. An overview of the whole system including screenshots and system flow-chart are presented in this paper. This paper also presents the inspiration or motivation and the justification in developing this system.

Keywords: Mobile to server, face recognition, system overview.

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Authors: Payam Mousavi, Andrew L. Stewart, Huiwen You, Aryeh F. G. Fayerman

Abstract:

We present a decision-support tool to assist an operator in the detection and tracking of a suspect vehicle traveling to an unknown target destination. Multiple data sources, such as traffic cameras, traffic information, weather, etc., are integrated and processed in real-time to infer a suspect’s intended destination chosen from a list of pre-determined high-value targets. Previously, we presented our work in the detection and tracking of vehicles using traffic and airborne cameras. Here, we focus on the fusion and processing of that information to predict a suspect’s behavior. The network of cameras is represented by a directional graph, where the edges correspond to direct road connections between the nodes and the edge weights are proportional to the average time it takes to travel from one node to another. For our experiments, we construct our graph based on the greater Los Angeles subset of the Caltrans’s “Performance Measurement System” (PeMS) dataset. We propose a Bayesian approach where a posterior probability for each target is continuously updated based on detections of the suspect in the live video feeds. Additionally, we introduce the concept of ‘soft interventions’, inspired by the field of Causal Inference. Soft interventions are herein defined as interventions that do not immediately interfere with the suspect’s movements; rather, a soft intervention may induce the suspect into making a new decision, ultimately making their intent more transparent. For example, a soft intervention could be temporarily closing a road a few blocks from the suspect’s current location, which may require the suspect to change their current course. The objective of these interventions is to gain the maximum amount of information about the suspect’s intent in the shortest possible time. Our system currently operates in a human-on-the-loop mode where at each step, a set of recommendations are presented to the operator to aid in decision-making. In principle, the system could operate autonomously, only prompting the operator for critical decisions, allowing the system to significantly scale up to larger areas and multiple suspects. Once the intended target is identified with sufficient confidence, the vehicle is reported to the authorities to take further action. Other recommendations include a selection of road closures, i.e., soft interventions, or to continue monitoring. We evaluate the performance of the proposed system using simulated scenarios where the suspect, starting at random locations, takes a noisy shortest path to their intended target. In all scenarios, the suspect’s intended target is unknown to our system. The decision thresholds are selected to maximize the chances of determining the suspect’s intended target in the minimum amount of time and with the smallest number of interventions. We conclude by discussing the limitations of our current approach to motivate a machine learning approach, based on reinforcement learning in order to relax some of the current limiting assumptions.

Keywords: Autonomous surveillance, Bayesian reasoning, decision-support, interventions, patterns-of-life, predictive analytics, predictive insights.

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