Search results for: Intelligent Control Systems for Nursing

Authors: J. K. Visser, H. T. Malan

Abstract:

A need exists to identify the sources of risks associated with the process automation systems within petrochemical companies or similar energy related industries. These companies use many different process automation technologies in its value chain. A crucial part of the process automation system is the information technology component featuring in the supervisory control layer. The ever-changing technology within the process automation layers and the rate at which it advances pose a risk to safe and predictable automation system performance. The age of the automation equipment also provides challenges to the operations and maintenance managers of the plant due to obsolescence and unavailability of spare parts. The main objective of this research was to determine the risk sources associated with the equipment that is part of the process automation systems. A secondary objective was to establish whether technology managers and technicians were aware of the risks and share the same viewpoint on the importance of the risks associated with automation systems. A conceptual model for risk sources of automation systems was formulated from models and frameworks in literature. This model comprised six categories of risk which forms the basis for identifying specific risks. This model was used to develop a questionnaire that was sent to 172 instrument technicians and technology managers in the company to obtain primary data. 75 completed and useful responses were received. These responses were analyzed statistically to determine the highest risk sources and to determine whether there was difference in opinion between technology managers and technicians. The most important risks that were revealed in this study are: 1) the lack of skilled technicians, 2) integration capability of third-party system software, 3) reliability of the process automation hardware, 4) excessive costs pertaining to performing maintenance and migrations on process automation systems, and 5) requirements of having third-party communication interfacing compatibility as well as real-time communication networks.

Keywords: Distributed control system, identification of risks, information technology, process automation system.

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Authors: Jung-Woon Lee, Jung-Taek Kim, Jae-Chang Park, In-Koo Hwang, Sung-Pil Lyu

Abstract:

Computerized alarm systems have been applied increasingly to nuclear power plants. For existing plants, an add-on computer alarm system is often installed to the control rooms. Alarm avalanches during the plant transients are major problems with the alarm systems in nuclear power plants. Computerized alarm systems can process alarms to reduce the number of alarms during the plant transients. This paper describes various alarm processing methods, an alarm cause tracking function, and various alarm presentation schemes to show alarm information to the operators effectively which are considered during the development of several computerized alarm systems for Korean nuclear power plants and are found to be helpful to the operators.

Keywords: Alarm processing, Alarm presentation, Alarm causetracking, Alarm logic diagram computerization, Alarm patternrecognition.

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Authors: M. Almeshal, M. O. Tokhi, K. M. Goher

Abstract:

A novel design of two-wheeled robotic vehicle with moving payload is presented in this paper. A mathematical model describing the vehicle dynamics is derived and simulated in Matlab Simulink environment. Two control strategies were developed to stabilise the vehicle in the upright position. A robust Proportional- Integral-Derivative (PID) control strategy has been implemented and initially tested to measure the system performance, while the second control strategy is to use a hybrid fuzzy logic controller (FLC). The results are given on a comparative basis for the system performance in terms of disturbance rejection, control algorithms robustness as well as the control effort in terms of input torque.

Keywords: double inverted pendulum, modelling, robust control, simulation,

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Authors: P. Nafisi Poor, P. Javid

Abstract:

Over the past few years, the idea of adaptive buildings and specifically, adaptive building energy management systems (ABEMS) has become popular. Well-performed management in terms of energy is to create a balance between energy consumption and user comfort; therefore, in new energy management models, efficient energy consumption is not the sole factor and the user's comfortability is also considered in the calculations. One of the main ways of measuring this factor is by analyzing user feedback on the conditions to understand whether they are satisfied with conditions or not. This paper provides a comprehensive review of recent approaches towards energy management systems based on users' feedbacks and subsequently performs a comparison between them premised upon their efficiency and accuracy to understand which approaches were more accurate and which ones resulted in a more efficient way of minimizing energy consumption while maintaining users' comfortability. It was concluded that the highest accuracy rate among the presented works was 95% accuracy in determining satisfaction and up to 51.08% energy savings can be achieved without disturbing user’s comfort. Considering the growing interest in designing and developing adaptive buildings, these studies can support diverse inquiries about this subject and can be used as a resource to support studies and researches towards efficient energy consumption while maintaining the comfortability of users.

Keywords: Adaptive buildings, energy efficiency, intelligent buildings, user comfortability.

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Authors: N. Sozbir, M. Bulut, M.F.Oktem, A.Kahriman, A. Chaix

Abstract:

TUSAT is a prospective Turkish Communication Satellite designed for providing mainly data communication and broadcasting services through Ku-Band and C-Band channels. Thermal control is a vital issue in satellite design process. Therefore, all satellite subsystems and equipments should be maintained in the desired temperature range from launch to end of maneuvering life. The main function of the thermal control is to keep the equipments and the satellite structures in a given temperature range for various phases and operating modes of spacecraft during its lifetime. This paper describes the thermal control design which uses passive and active thermal control concepts. The active thermal control is based on heaters regulated by software via thermistors. Alternatively passive thermal control composes of heat pipes, multilayer insulation (MLI) blankets, radiators, paints and surface finishes maintaining temperature level of the overall carrier components within an acceptable value. Thermal control design is supported by thermal analysis using thermal mathematical models (TMM).

Keywords: Spacecraft thermal control, design of thermal control.

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Authors: Orestis Κ. Efthymiou, Stavros T. Ponis

Abstract:

In the last decade, a new industrial revolution seems to be emerging, supported -once again- by the rapid advancements of Information Technology in the areas of Machine-to-Machine (M2M) communication permitting large numbers of intelligent devices, e.g. sensors to communicate with each other and take decisions without any or minimum indirect human intervention. The advent of these technologies have triggered the emergence of a new category of hybrid (cyber-physical) manufacturing systems, combining advanced manufacturing techniques with innovative M2M applications based on the Internet of Things (IoT), under the umbrella term Industry 4.0. Even though the topic of Industry 4.0 has attracted much attention during the last few years, the attempts of providing a systematic literature review of the subject are scarce. In this paper, we present the authors’ initial study of the field with a special focus on the use and applications of Industry 4.0 principles in material handling automations and in-house logistics. Research shows that despite the vivid discussion and attractiveness of the subject, there are still many challenges and issues that have to be addressed before Industry 4.0 becomes standardized and widely applicable.

Keywords: Industry 4.0, internet of things, manufacturing systems, material handling, logistics.

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Authors: Chin-Ming Hong, Chin-Teng Lin, Chao-Yen Huang, Yi-Ming Lin

Abstract:

In this article, we propose an Intelligent Medical Diagnostic System (IMDS) accessible through common web-based interface, to on-line perform initial screening for osteoporosis. The fundamental approaches which construct the proposed system are mainly based on the fuzzy-neural theory, which can exhibit superiority over other conventional technologies in many fields. In diagnosis process, users simply answer a series of directed questions to the system, and then they will immediately receive a list of results which represents the risk degrees of osteoporosis. According to clinical testing results, it is shown that the proposed system can provide the general public or even health care providers with a convenient, reliable, inexpensive approach to osteoporosis risk assessment.

Keywords: BMD, osteoporosis, IMDS, fuzzy-neural theory, web interface.

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Authors: Mohamed Azab

Abstract:

In this paper a new maximum power point tracking algorithm for photovoltaic arrays is proposed. The algorithm detects the maximum power point of the PV. The computed maximum power is used as a reference value (set point) of the control system. ON/OFF power controller with hysteresis band is used to control the operation of a Buck chopper such that the PV module always operates at its maximum power computed from the MPPT algorithm. The major difference between the proposed algorithm and other techniques is that the proposed algorithm is used to control directly the power drawn from the PV. The proposed MPPT has several advantages: simplicity, high convergence speed, and independent on PV array characteristics. The algorithm is tested under various operating conditions. The obtained results have proven that the MPP is tracked even under sudden change of irradiation level.

Keywords: Photovoltaic, maximum power point tracking, MPPT.

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Authors: A. A. Jafari, A. M. Khoshnood, J. Roshanian

Abstract:

Attitude control of aerospace system with liquid containers may face to a problem associate with fuel sloshing. The sloshing phenomena can degrade the stability of control system and in the worst case, interaction between the attitude control system and fuel vibration leading to resonance. In this paper, a full process of nonlinear dynamic modeling of an aerospace launch vehicle with fuel sloshing is given. Then, a new control system based on model reference adaptive filter is proposed and its algorithm is extracted. This controller implemented on the main attitude control system. Finally, numerical simulation of nonlinear model and control system is carried out to examine the performance of the new controller. Results of simulations show that the inconvenient effects of the fuel sloshing by augmenting this control system are reduced and attitude control system performs, satisfactorily.

Keywords: nonlinear dynamic modeling, fuel sloshing, vibration control, model reference, adaptive filter

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Authors: Shinpei Kato, Nobuyuki Yamasaki

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This paper proposes a scheduling scheme using feedback control to reduce the response time of aperiodic tasks with soft real-time constraints. We design an algorithm based on the proposed scheduling scheme and Total Bandwidth Server (TBS) that is a conventional server technique for scheduling aperiodic tasks. We then describe the feedback controller of the algorithm and give the control parameter tuning methods. The simulation study demonstrates that the algorithm can reduce the mean response time up to 26% compared to TBS in exchange for slight deadline misses.

Keywords: Real-Time Systems, Aperiodic Task Scheduling, Feedback-Control Scheduling, Total Bandwidth Server.

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Authors: Mehdi Modabberifar, Sanaz Jabary, Mojtaba Ghodsi

Abstract:

Stiffness sensing is an important issue in medical diagnostic, robotics surgery, safe handling, and safe grasping of objects in production lines. Detecting and obtaining the characteristics in dwelling lumps embedded in a soft tissue and safe removing and handling of detected lumps is needed in surgery. Also in industry, grasping and handling an object without damaging in a place where it is not possible to access a human operator is very important. In this paper, a method for object handling is presented. It is based on the use of an intelligent gripper to detect the object stiffness and then setting a programmable force for grasping the object to move it. The main components of this system includes sensors (sensors for measuring force and displacement), electrical (electrical and electronic circuits, tactile data processing and force control system), mechanical (gripper mechanism and driving system for the gripper) and the display unit. The system uses a rotary potentiometer for measuring gripper displacement. A microcontroller using the feedback received by the load cell, mounted on the finger of the gripper, calculates the amount of stiffness, and then commands the gripper motor to apply a certain force on the object. Results of Experiments on some samples with different stiffness show that the gripper works successfully. The gripper can be used in haptic interfaces or robotic systems used for object handling.

Keywords: Gripper, haptic, stiffness, robotic.

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Authors: Ishak, L., McHenry, M. T., Brown, P. H.

Abstract:

Organic farming systems still depend on intensive, mechanical soil tillage. Frequent passes by machinery traffic cause substantial soil compaction that threatens soil health. Adopting practices as reduced tillage and organic matter retention on the soil surface are considered effective ways to control soil compaction. In tropical regions, however, the acceleration of soil organic matter decomposition and soil carbon turnover on the topsoil layer is influenced more rapidly by the oscillation process of drying and wetting. It is hypothesized therefore, that rapid reduction in soil organic matter hastens the potential for compaction to occur in organic farming systems. Compaction changes soil physical properties and as a consequence it has been implicated as a causal agent in the inhibition of natural disease suppression in soils. Here we describe relationships between soil management in organic vegetable systems, soil compaction, and declining soil capacity to suppress pathogenic microorganisms.

Keywords: Organic farming systems, soil compaction, soil disease suppression, tropical regions.

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Authors: Seema Chopra, R. Mitra, Vijay Kumar

Abstract:

A neurofuzzy approach for a given set of input-output training data is proposed in two phases. Firstly, the data set is partitioned automatically into a set of clusters. Then a fuzzy if-then rule is extracted from each cluster to form a fuzzy rule base. Secondly, a fuzzy neural network is constructed accordingly and parameters are tuned to increase the precision of the fuzzy rule base. This network is able to learn and optimize the rule base of a Sugeno like Fuzzy inference system using Hybrid learning algorithm, which combines gradient descent, and least mean square algorithm. This proposed neurofuzzy system has the advantage of determining the number of rules automatically and also reduce the number of rules, decrease computational time, learns faster and consumes less memory. The authors also investigate that how neurofuzzy techniques can be applied in the area of control theory to design a fuzzy controller for linear and nonlinear dynamic systems modelling from a set of input/output data. The simulation analysis on a wide range of processes, to identify nonlinear components on-linely in a control system and a benchmark problem involving the prediction of a chaotic time series is carried out. Furthermore, the well-known examples of linear and nonlinear systems are also simulated under the Matlab/Simulink environment. The above combination is also illustrated in modeling the relationship between automobile trips and demographic factors.

Keywords: Fuzzy control, neuro-fuzzy techniques, fuzzy subtractive clustering, extraction of rules, and optimization of membership functions.

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Authors: Wudhichai Assawinchaichote, Sing Kiong Nguang

Abstract:

This paper examines the problem of designing a robust H∞ filter for a class of uncertain fuzzy descriptor systems described by a Takagi-Sugeno (TS) fuzzy model. Based on a linear matrix inequality (LMI) approach, LMI-based sufficient conditions for the uncertain nonlinear descriptor systems to have an H∞ performance are derived. To alleviate the ill-conditioning resulting from the interaction of slow and fast dynamic modes, solutions to the problem are given in terms of linear matrix inequalities which are independent of the singular perturbation ε, when ε is sufficiently small. The proposed approach does not involve the separation of states into slow and fast ones and it can be applied not only to standard, but also to nonstandard uncertain nonlinear descriptor systems. A numerical example is provided to illustrate the design developed in this paper.

Keywords: H∞ control, Takagi-Sugeno (TS) fuzzy model, Linear Matrix Inequalities (LMIs), Descriptor systems.

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Authors: A. Puras Trueba, J. R. Llata García

Abstract:

A nonlinear optimal controller with a fuzzy gain scheduler has been designed and applied to a Line-Of-Sight (LOS) stabilization system. Use of Linear Quadratic Regulator (LQR) theory is an optimal and simple manner of solving many control engineering problems. However, this method cannot be utilized directly for multigimbal LOS systems since they are nonlinear in nature. To adapt LQ controllers to nonlinear systems at least a linearization of the model plant is required. When the linearized model is only valid within the vicinity of an operating point a gain scheduler is required. Therefore, a Takagi-Sugeno Fuzzy Inference System gain scheduler has been implemented, which keeps the asymptotic stability performance provided by the optimal feedback gain approach. The simulation results illustrate that the proposed controller is capable of overcoming disturbances and maintaining a satisfactory tracking performance.

Keywords: Fuzzy Gain-Scheduling, Gimbal, Line-Of-SightStabilization, LQR, Optimal Control

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Authors: Rajesh Kumar, Roopali Dogra, Puneet Aggarwal

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Based on a survey conducted for second and third year students of the electrical engineering department at Maharishi Markandeshwar University, India, it was found that around 92% of students felt that it would be better to introduce a virtual environment for laboratory experiments. Hence, a need was felt to perform modern pedagogy techniques for students which consist of a virtual environment using MATLAB/Simulink. In this paper, a virtual environment for the speed control of a DC motor is performed using MATLAB/Simulink. The various speed control methods for the DC motor include the field resistance control method and armature voltage control method. The performance analysis of the DC motor is hence analyzed.

Keywords: Pedagogy techniques, speed control, virtual environment, DC motor, field control, voltage control.

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Authors: N. Z. Azlan, H. Yamaura

Abstract:

The experimental study of position control of a light weight and small size robotic finger during non-contact motion is presented in this paper. The finger possesses fingertip pinching and self adaptive grasping capabilities, and is made of a seven bar linkage mechanism with a slider in the middle phalanx. The control system is tested under the Proportional Integral Derivative (PID) control algorithm and Recursive Least Square (RLS) based Feedback Error Learning (FEL) control scheme to overcome the uncertainties present in the plant. The experiments conducted in Matlab Simulink and xPC Target environments show that the overall control strategy is efficient in controlling the finger movement.

Keywords: Anthropomorphic finger, position control, feedback error learning, experimental study

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Authors: A. Ourici

Abstract:

This paper proposes a direct power control for doubly-fed induction machine for variable speed wind power generation. It provides decoupled regulation of the primary side active and reactive power and it is suitable for both electric energy generation and drive applications. In order to control the power flowing between the stator of the DFIG and the network, a decoupled control of active and reactive power is synthesized using PI controllers.The obtained simulation results show the feasibility and the effectiveness of the suggested method

Keywords: Doubly fed induction machine , decoupled power control , vector control , active and reactive power, PWM inverter

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Authors: T. Narongrit, K-L. Areerak, K-N. Areerak

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This paper presents the comparison study of current control techniques for shunt active power filter. The hysteresis current control, the delta modulation control and the carrier-based PWM control are considered in the paper. The synchronous detection method is used to calculate the reference currents for shunt active power filter. The simulation results show that the carrier-based PWM control technique provides the minimum %THD value of the source currents compared with other comparable techniques after compensation. However, the %THD values of all three techniques can follow the IEEE std.519-1992.

Keywords: hysteresis current control, delta modulation current control, pulse width modulation control, shunt active power filter, synchronous detection.

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Authors: Ikbal Zammouri, Béchir Ayeb

Abstract:

In this paper, we propose a new method to describe fractal shapes using parametric l-systems. First we introduce scaling factors in the production rules of the parametric l-systems grammars. Then we decorticate these grammars with scaling factors using turtle algebra to show the mathematical relation between l-systems and iterated function systems (IFS). We demonstrate that with specific values of the scaling factors, we find the exact relationship established by Prusinkiewicz and Hammel between l-systems and IFS.

Keywords: Fractal shapes, IFS, parametric l-systems, turtlealgebra.

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Authors: B. M. Mohan, Sanjeeb Kumar Kar

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In this paper a unified approach via block-pulse functions (BPFs) or shifted Legendre polynomials (SLPs) is presented to solve the linear-quadratic-Gaussian (LQG) control problem. Also a recursive algorithm is proposed to solve the above problem via BPFs. By using the elegant operational properties of orthogonal functions (BPFs or SLPs) these computationally attractive algorithms are developed. To demonstrate the validity of the proposed approaches a numerical example is included.

Keywords: Linear quadratic Gaussian control, linear quadratic estimator, linear quadratic regulator, time-invariant systems, orthogonal functions, block-pulse functions, shifted legendre polynomials.

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Authors: Richard A. Wasniowski

Abstract:

A wide spectrum of systems require reliable personal recognition schemes to either confirm or determine the identity of an individual person. This paper considers multimodal biometric system and their applicability to access control, authentication and security applications. Strategies for feature extraction and sensor fusion are considered and contrasted. Issues related to performance assessment, deployment and standardization are discussed. Finally future directions of biometric systems development are discussed.

Keywords: Multimodal, biometric, recognition, fusion.

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Authors: Jožef Ritonja

Abstract:

The biochemical industry is one of the most important modern industries. Biochemical reactors are crucial devices of the biochemical industry. The essential bioprocess carried out in bioreactors is the fermentation process. A thorough insight into the fermentation process and the knowledge how to control it are essential for effective use of bioreactors to produce high quality and quantitatively enough products. The development of the control system starts with the determination of a mathematical model that describes the steady state and dynamic properties of the controlled plant satisfactorily, and is suitable for the development of the control system. The paper analyses the fermentation process in bioreactors thoroughly, using existing mathematical models. Most existing mathematical models do not allow the design of a control system for controlling the fermentation process in batch bioreactors. Due to this, a mathematical model was developed and presented that allows the development of a control system for batch bioreactors. Based on the developed mathematical model, a control system was designed to ensure optimal response of the biochemical quantities in the fermentation process. Due to the time-varying and non-linear nature of the controlled plant, the conventional control system with a proportional-integral-differential controller with constant parameters does not provide the desired transient response. The improved adaptive control system was proposed to improve the dynamics of the fermentation. The use of the adaptive control is suggested because the parameters’ variations of the fermentation process are very slow. The developed control system was tested to produce dairy products in the laboratory bioreactor. A carbon dioxide concentration was chosen as the controlled variable. The carbon dioxide concentration correlates well with the other, for the quality of the fermentation process in significant quantities. The level of the carbon dioxide concentration gives important information about the fermentation process. The obtained results showed that the designed control system provides minimum error between reference and actual values of carbon dioxide concentration during a transient response and in a steady state. The recommended control system makes reference signal tracking much more efficient than the currently used conventional control systems which are based on linear control theory. The proposed control system represents a very effective solution for the improvement of the milk fermentation process.

Keywords: Bioprocess engineering, biochemical reactor, fermentation process, modeling, adaptive control.

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Authors: Banaja Mohanty, Prakash Kumar Hota

Abstract:

This paper presents a differential evolution algorithm to design a robust PI and PID controllers for Load Frequency Control (LFC) of nonlinear interconnected power systems considering the boiler dynamics, Governor Dead Band (GDB), Generation Rate Constraint (GRC). Differential evolution algorithm is employed to search for the optimal controller parameters. The proposed method easily copes of with nonlinear constraints. Further the proposed controller is simple, effective and can ensure the desirable overall system performance. The superiority of the proposed approach has been shown by comparing the results with published fuzzy logic controller for the same power systems. The comparison is done using various performance measures like overshoot, settling time and standard error criteria of frequency and tie-line power deviation following a 1% step load perturbation in hydro area. It is noticed that, the dynamic performance of proposed controller is better than fuzzy logic controller. Furthermore, it is also seen that the proposed system is robust and is not affected by change in the system parameters.

Keywords: Automatic Generation control (AGC), Generation Rate Constraint (GRC), Governor Dead Band (GDB), Differential Evolution (DE)

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Authors: Wang Zhan-Xi, Zhang Yi-Ming, Chen Hang, Wang Gang

Abstract:

Manual polishing has problems such as high labor intensity, low production efficiency and difficulty in guaranteeing the consistency of polishing quality. The use of robot polishing instead of manual polishing can effectively avoid these problems. Polishing force directly affects the quality of polishing, so accurate tracking and control of polishing force is one of the most important conditions for improving the accuracy of robot polishing. The traditional force control strategy is difficult to adapt to the strong coupling of force control and position control during the robot polishing process. Therefore, based on the analysis of force-based impedance control and position-based impedance control, this paper proposed a type of adaptive controller. Based on force feedback control of active compliance control, the controller can adaptively estimate the stiffness and position of the external environment and eliminate the steady-state force error produced by traditional impedance control. The simulation results of the model show that the adaptive controller has good adaptability to changing environmental positions and environmental stiffness, and can accurately track and control polishing force.

Keywords: robot polishing, force feedback, impedance control, adaptive control

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Authors: N. Popovich, P. Yan

Abstract:

In this paper, the process of obtaining Q and R matrices for optimal pitch aircraft control system has been described. Since the innovation of optimal control method, the determination of Q and R matrices for such system has not been fully specified. The value of Q and R for optimal pitch aircraft control application, have been simulated and calculated. The suitable results for Q and R have been observed through the performance index (PI). If the PI is small “enough", we would say the Q & R values are suitable for that certain type of optimal control system. Moreover, for the same value of PI, we could have different Q and R sets. Due to the rule-free determination of Q and R matrices, a specific method is brought to find out the rough value of Q and R referring to rather small value of PI.

Keywords: Aircraft, control, digital, optimal, Q and R matrices

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Authors: Ming-Hui Lee, Shou-Jen Hsu

Abstract:

This study presents an active vibration control technique to reduce the earthquake responses of a retained structural system. The proposed technique is a synthesis of the adaptive input estimation method (AIEM) and linear quadratic Gaussian (LQG) controller. The AIEM can estimate an unknown system input online. The LQG controller offers optimal control forces to suppress wall-structural system vibration. The numerical results show robust performance in the active vibration control technique.

Keywords: Active vibration control, AIEM, LQG, Optimal control

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Authors: W. K. Wong, Z. X. Guo, P.Y. Mok

Abstract:

This paper presents a multi-objective order allocation planning problem with the consideration of various real-world production features. A novel hybrid intelligent optimization model, integrating a multi-objective memetic optimization process, a Monte Carlo simulation technique and a heuristic pruning technique, is proposed to handle this problem. Experiments based on industrial data are conducted to validate the proposed model. Results show that (1) the proposed model can effectively solve the investigated problem by providing effective production decision-making solutions, which outperformsan NSGA-II-based optimization process and an industrial method.

Keywords: Multi-objective order allocation planning, Pareto optimization, Memetic algorithm, Mento Carlo simulation

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Authors: Yi-Fan Lin, Peter P. Howley, Frank A. Tuyl

Abstract:

Quality measurement and reporting systems are used in healthcare internationally. In Australia, the Australian Council on Healthcare Standards records and reports hundreds of clinical indicators (CIs) nationally across the healthcare system. These CIs are measures of performance in the clinical setting, and are used as a screening tool to help assess whether a standard of care is being met. Existing analysis and reporting of these CIs incorporate Bayesian methods to address sampling variation; however, such assessments are retrospective in nature, reporting upon the previous six or twelve months of data. The use of Bayesian methods within statistical process control for monitoring systems is an important pursuit to support more timely decision-making. Our research has developed and assessed a new graphical monitoring tool, similar to a control chart, based on the beta-binomial posterior predictive (BBPP) distribution to facilitate the real-time assessment of health care organizational performance via CIs. The BBPP charts have been compared with the traditional Bernoulli CUSUM (BC) chart by simulation. The more traditional “central” and “highest posterior density” (HPD) interval approaches were each considered to define the limits, and the multiple charts were compared via in-control and out-of-control average run lengths (ARLs), assuming that the parameter representing the underlying CI rate (proportion of cases with an event of interest) required estimation. Preliminary results have identified that the BBPP chart with HPD-based control limits provides better out-of-control run length performance than the central interval-based and BC charts. Further, the BC chart’s performance may be improved by using Bayesian parameter estimation of the underlying CI rate.

Keywords: Average run length, Bernoulli CUSUM chart, beta binomial posterior predictive distribution, clinical indicator, health care organization, highest posterior density interval.

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Authors: Jagadish H. Pujar

Abstract:

Fuzzy Load forecasting plays a paramount role in the operation and management of power systems. Accurate estimation of future power demands for various lead times facilitates the task of generating power reliably and economically. The forecasting of future loads for a relatively large lead time (months to few years) is studied here (long term load forecasting). Among the various techniques used in forecasting load, artificial intelligence techniques provide greater accuracy to the forecasts as compared to conventional techniques. Fuzzy Logic, a very robust artificial intelligent technique, is described in this paper to forecast load on long term basis. The paper gives a general algorithm to forecast long term load. The algorithm is an Extension of Short term load forecasting method to Long term load forecasting and concentrates not only on the forecast values of load but also on the errors incorporated into the forecast. Hence, by correcting the errors in the forecast, forecasts with very high accuracy have been achieved. The algorithm, in the paper, is demonstrated with the help of data collected for residential sector (LT2 (a) type load: Domestic consumers). Load, is determined for three consecutive years (from April-06 to March-09) in order to demonstrate the efficiency of the algorithm and to forecast for the next two years (from April-09 to March-11).

Keywords: Fuzzy Logic Control (FLC), Data DependantFactors(DDF), Model Dependent Factors(MDF), StatisticalError(SE), Short Term Load Forecasting (STLF), MiscellaneousError(ME).

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