Search results for: Imperial Competitive Algorithm.

Authors: Mafarja Majdi, Salwani Abdullah, Najmeh S. Jaddi

Abstract:

One of the global combinatorial optimization problems in machine learning is feature selection. It concerned with removing the irrelevant, noisy, and redundant data, along with keeping the original meaning of the original data. Attribute reduction in rough set theory is an important feature selection method. Since attribute reduction is an NP-hard problem, it is necessary to investigate fast and effective approximate algorithms. In this paper, we proposed two feature selection mechanisms based on memetic algorithms (MAs) which combine the genetic algorithm with a fuzzy record to record travel algorithm and a fuzzy controlled great deluge algorithm, to identify a good balance between local search and genetic search. In order to verify the proposed approaches, numerical experiments are carried out on thirteen datasets. The results show that the MAs approaches are efficient in solving attribute reduction problems when compared with other meta-heuristic approaches.

Keywords: Rough Set Theory, Attribute Reduction, Fuzzy Logic, Memetic Algorithms, Record to Record Algorithm, Great Deluge Algorithm.

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Authors: Mei Shan Ngan, Chee Wei Tan

Abstract:

Due to the non-linear characteristics of photovoltaic (PV) array, PV systems typically are equipped with the capability of maximum power point tracking (MPPT) feature. Moreover, in the case of PV array under partially shaded conditions, hotspot problem will occur which could damage the PV cells. Partial shading causes multiple peaks in the P-V characteristic curves. This paper presents a hybrid algorithm of Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO) and Artificial Neural Network (ANN) MPPT algorithm for the detection of global peak among the multiple peaks in order to extract the true maximum energy from PV panel. The PV system consists of PV array, dc-dc boost converter controlled by the proposed MPPT algorithm and a resistive load. The system was simulated using MATLAB/Simulink package. The simulation results show that the proposed algorithm performs well to detect the true global peak power. The results of the simulations are analyzed and discussed.

Keywords: Photovoltaic (PV), Partial Shading, Maximum Power Point Tracking (MPPT), Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO) and Artificial Neural Network (ANN)

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Authors: J. G. Batista, T. S. Santiago, E. A. Ribeiro, ¬G. A. P. Thé

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This work deals with parameter identification of permanent magnet motors, a class of ac motor which is particularly important in industrial automation due to characteristics like applications high performance, are very attractive for applications with limited space and reducing the need to eliminate because they have reduced size and volume and can operate in a wide speed range, without independent ventilation. By using experimental data and genetic algorithm we have been able to extract values for both the motor inductance and the electromechanical coupling constant, which are then compared to measure and/or expected values.

Keywords: Modeling, AC servomotor, Permanent Magnet Synchronous Motor-PMSM, Genetic Algorithm, Vector Control, Robotic Manipulator, Control.

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Authors: Sufian Ashraf Mazhari, Surendra Kumar

Abstract:

This paper compares the heuristic Global Search Techniques; Genetic Algorithm, Particle Swarm Optimization, Simulated Annealing, Generalized Pattern Search, genetic algorithm hybridized with Nelder–Mead and Generalized pattern search technique for tuning of fuzzy PID controller for Puma 560. Since the actual control is in joint space ,inverse kinematics is used to generate various joint angles correspoding to desired cartesian space trajectory. Efficient dynamics and kinematics are modeled on Matlab which takes very less simulation time. Performances of all the tuning methods with and without disturbance are compared in terms of ITSE in joint space and ISE in cartesian space for spiral trajectory tracking. Genetic Algorithm hybridized with Generalized Pattern Search is showing best performance.

Keywords: Controller tuning, Fuzzy Control, Genetic Algorithm, Heuristic search, Robot control.

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Authors: Suman Kumar Saha, Rajib Kar, Durbadal Mandal, S. P. Ghoshal

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This paper demonstrates the application of craziness based particle swarm optimization (CRPSO) technique for designing the 8th order low pass Infinite Impulse Response (IIR) filter. CRPSO, the much improved version of PSO, is a population based global heuristic search algorithm which finds near optimal solution in terms of a set of filter coefficients. Effectiveness of this algorithm is justified with a comparative study of some well established algorithms, namely, real coded genetic algorithm (RGA) and particle swarm optimization (PSO). Simulation results affirm that the proposed algorithm CRPSO, outperforms over its counterparts not only in terms of quality output i.e. sharpness at cut-off, pass band ripple, stop band ripple, and stop band attenuation but also in convergence speed with assured stability.

Keywords: IIR Filter, RGA, PSO, CRPSO, Evolutionary Optimization Techniques, Low Pass (LP) Filter, Magnitude Response, Pole-Zero Plot, Stability.

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Authors: Zhang Xiaodong, Tang Zixin, Liu Xin

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In order to avoid self-collision of space manipulators during operation process, a real-time detection method is proposed in this paper. The manipulator is fitted into a cylinder-enveloping surface, and then, a kind of detection algorithm of collision between cylinders is analyzed. The collision model of space manipulator self-links can be detected by using this algorithm in real-time detection during the operation process. To ensure security of the operation, a safety threshold is designed. The simulation and experiment results verify the effectiveness of the proposed algorithm for a 7-DOF space manipulator.

Keywords: Space manipulator, Collision detection, Self-collision, the real-time collision detection.

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Authors: K. Busko

Abstract:

The aim of the study was to follow changes of powervelocity relationship in female volleyball players during an annual training cycle. The study was conducted on eleven female volleyball players: age 21.6±1.7 years, body height 177.9±4.7 cm, body mass 71.3±6.6 kg and training experience 8.6±3.3 years. Power–velocity relationship was determined from five maximal 10-second cycloergometer efforts with external loads equal: 2.5, 5.0, 7.5, 10.0 and 12.5% of body weight (BW) before (I) and after (II) the preparatory period, after the first (III) and second (IV) competitive season. The maximal power output increased from 9.30±0.85 W•kg–1 (I) to 9.50±0.96 W•kg–1 (II), 9.77±0.96 W•kg–1 (III) and 9.95±1.13 W•kg–1 (IV, p<0,05). The power output at the load of 2.5, 5.0, 7.5, 10.0% BW were statistically significant increased after the first and second competitive season. Power output at load of 12.5% BW was insignificant increased.

Keywords: Female, Force-velocity relationship, Power output, Volleyball

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Authors: M. Derakhshanfar, B. Minaei-Bidgoli

Abstract:

Spatial trends are one of the valuable patterns in geo databases. They play an important role in data analysis and knowledge discovery from spatial data. A spatial trend is a regular change of one or more non spatial attributes when spatially moving away from a start object. Spatial trend detection is a graph search problem therefore heuristic methods can be good solution. Artificial immune system (AIS) is a special method for searching and optimizing. AIS is a novel evolutionary paradigm inspired by the biological immune system. The models based on immune system principles, such as the clonal selection theory, the immune network model or the negative selection algorithm, have been finding increasing applications in fields of science and engineering. In this paper, we develop a novel immunological algorithm based on clonal selection algorithm (CSA) for spatial trend detection. We are created neighborhood graph and neighborhood path, then select spatial trends that their affinity is high for antibody. In an evolutionary process with artificial immune algorithm, affinity of low trends is increased with mutation until stop condition is satisfied.

Keywords: Spatial Data Mining, Spatial Trend Detection, Heuristic Methods, Artificial Immune System, Clonal Selection Algorithm (CSA)

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Authors: D. P. Sharma, A. Chaturvedi, G.Purohit , R.Shivarudraswamy

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In today scenario, to meet enhanced demand imposed by domestic, commercial and industrial consumers, various operational & control activities of Radial Distribution Network (RDN) requires a focused attention. Irrespective of sub-domains research aspects of RDN like network reconfiguration, reactive power compensation and economic load scheduling etc, network performance parameters are usually estimated by an iterative process and is commonly known as load (power) flow algorithm. In this paper, a simple mechanism is presented to implement the load flow analysis (LFA) algorithm. The reported algorithm utilizes graph theory principles and is tested on a 69- bus RDN.

Keywords: Radial Distribution network, Graph, Load-flow, Array.

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Authors: Mhand Hifi, Hedi Mhalla, Mustapha Michaphy

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In this paper, we study the multi-scenario knapsack problem, a variant of the well-known NP-Hard single knapsack problem. We investigate the use of an adaptive algorithm for solving heuristically the problem. The used method combines two complementary phases: a size reduction phase and a dynamic 2- opt procedure one. First, the reduction phase applies a polynomial reduction strategy; that is used for reducing the size problem. Second, the adaptive search procedure is applied in order to attain a feasible solution Finally, the performances of two versions of the proposed algorithm are evaluated on a set of randomly generated instances.

Keywords: combinatorial optimization, max-min optimization, knapsack, heuristics, problem reduction

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Authors: Mike Sewell, Jagath Samarabandu, Ranga Rodrigo, Kenneth McIsaac

Abstract:

A novel method of individual level adaptive mutation rate control called the rank-scaled mutation rate for genetic algorithms is introduced. The rank-scaled mutation rate controlled genetic algorithm varies the mutation parameters based on the rank of each individual within the population. Thereby the distribution of the fitness of the papulation is taken into consideration in forming the new mutation rates. The best fit mutate at the lowest rate and the least fit mutate at the highest rate. The complexity of the algorithm is of the order of an individual adaptation scheme and is lower than that of a self-adaptation scheme. The proposed algorithm is tested on two common problems, namely, numerical optimization of a function and the traveling salesman problem. The results show that the proposed algorithm outperforms both the fixed and deterministic mutation rate schemes. It is best suited for problems with several local optimum solutions without a high demand for excessive mutation rates.

Keywords: Genetic algorithms, mutation rate control, adaptive mutation.

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Authors: P. Phokharatkul, K. Sankhuangaw, S. Somkuarnpanit, S. Phaiboon, C. Kimpan

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Much research into handwritten Thai character recognition have been proposed, such as comparing heads of characters, Fuzzy logic and structure trees, etc. This paper presents a system of handwritten Thai character recognition, which is based on the Ant-minor algorithm (data mining based on Ant colony optimization). Zoning is initially used to determine each character. Then three distinct features (also called attributes) of each character in each zone are extracted. The attributes are Head zone, End point, and Feature code. All attributes are used for construct the classification rules by an Ant-miner algorithm in order to classify 112 Thai characters. For this experiment, the Ant-miner algorithm is adapted, with a small change to increase the recognition rate. The result of this experiment is a 97% recognition rate of the training set (11200 characters) and 82.7% recognition rate of unseen data test (22400 characters).

Keywords: Hand written, Thai character recognition, Ant-mineralgorithm, distinct feature.

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Authors: Basant Kumar, Animesh Anand, S.P. Singh, Anand Mohan

Abstract:

This paper presents a new spread-spectrum watermarking algorithm for digital images in discrete wavelet transform (DWT) domain. The algorithm is applied for embedding watermarks like patient identification /source identification or doctors signature in binary image format into host digital radiological image for potential telemedicine applications. Performance of the algorithm is analysed by varying the gain factor, subband decomposition levels, and size of watermark. Simulation results show that the proposed method achieves higher watermarking capacity.

Keywords: Watermarking, spread-spectrum, discrete wavelettransform, telemedicine

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Authors: Kiyohiro Yamazaki

Abstract:

A purpose of this study is to examine how a firm without fundamental technology is able to gain the competitive advantage. This paper examines three case studies, Sony in the flat display TV industry, Casio in the digital camera industry and Nintendo in the home game machine industry. This paper maintain the firms without fundamental technology construct two advantages, economic advantage and organizational advantage. An economic advantage involves the firm can select either high-tech or cheap devices out of several device makers, and change the alternatives cheaply and quickly. In addition, organizational advantage means that a firm without fundamental technology is not restricted by organizational inertia and cognitive restraints, and exercises the characteristic of strength.

Keywords: Firm without fundamental technology, economic advantage, organizational advantage, Sony, Casio, Nintendo.

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Authors: Konstantinos Metaxiotis, Konstantinos Liagkouras

Abstract:

The objective of this study is to examine the performance of three well-known multiobjective evolutionary algorithms for solving optimization problems. The first algorithm is the Non-dominated Sorting Genetic Algorithm-II (NSGA-II), the second one is the Strength Pareto Evolutionary Algorithm 2 (SPEA-2), and the third one is the Multiobjective Evolutionary Algorithms based on decomposition (MOEA/D). The examined multiobjective algorithms are analyzed and tested on the ZDT set of test functions by three performance metrics. The results indicate that the NSGA-II performs better than the other two algorithms based on three performance metrics.

Keywords: MOEAs, Multiobjective optimization, ZDT test functions, performance metrics.

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Authors: C. Chitra, P. Subbaraj

Abstract:

The shortest path routing problem is a multiobjective nonlinear optimization problem with constraints. This problem has been addressed by considering Quality of service parameters, delay and cost objectives separately or as a weighted sum of both objectives. Multiobjective evolutionary algorithms can find multiple pareto-optimal solutions in one single run and this ability makes them attractive for solving problems with multiple and conflicting objectives. This paper uses an elitist multiobjective evolutionary algorithm based on the Non-dominated Sorting Genetic Algorithm (NSGA), for solving the dynamic shortest path routing problem in computer networks. A priority-based encoding scheme is proposed for population initialization. Elitism ensures that the best solution does not deteriorate in the next generations. Results for a sample test network have been presented to demonstrate the capabilities of the proposed approach to generate well-distributed pareto-optimal solutions of dynamic routing problem in one single run. The results obtained by NSGA are compared with single objective weighting factor method for which Genetic Algorithm (GA) was applied.

Keywords: Multiobjective optimization, Non-dominated Sorting Genetic Algorithm, Routing, Weighted sum.

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Authors: R. Sahraian, A. Karampour Haghighi, E. Ghasemi

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Process planning and production scheduling play important roles in manufacturing systems. In this paper a multiobjective mixed integer linear programming model is presented for the integrated planning and scheduling of multi-product. The aim is to find a set of high-quality trade-off solutions. This is a combinatorial optimization problem with substantially large solution space, suggesting that it is highly difficult to find the best solutions with the exact search method. To account for it, a PSO-based algorithm is proposed by fully utilizing the capability of the exploration search and fast convergence. To fit the continuous PSO in the discrete modeled problem, a solution representation is used in the algorithm. The numerical experiments have been performed to demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed algorithm.

Keywords: Integrated process planning and scheduling, multi objective, MILP, Particle swarm optimization

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Authors: Alireza Gholami, Amir H. D. Markazi

Abstract:

In this paper, an observer-based direct adaptive fuzzy sliding mode (OAFSM) algorithm is proposed. In the proposed algorithm, the zero-input dynamics of the plant could be unknown. The input connection matrix is used to combine the sliding surfaces of individual subsystems, and an adaptive fuzzy algorithm is used to estimate an equivalent sliding mode control input directly. The fuzzy membership functions, which were determined by time consuming try and error processes in previous works, are adjusted by adaptive algorithms. The other advantage of the proposed controller is that the input gain matrix is not limited to be diagonal, i.e. the plant could be over/under actuated provided that controllability and observability are preserved. An observer is constructed to directly estimate the state tracking error, and the nonlinear part of the observer is constructed by an adaptive fuzzy algorithm. The main advantage of the proposed observer is that, the measured outputs is not limited to the first entry of a canonical-form state vector. The closed-loop stability of the proposed method is proved using a Lyapunov-based approach. The proposed method is applied numerically on a multi-link robot manipulator, which verifies the performance of the closed-loop control. Moreover, the performance of the proposed algorithm is compared with some conventional control algorithms.

Keywords: Adaptive algorithm, fuzzy systems, membership functions, observer.

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Authors: V.P.Subramanyam Rallabandi, S.K.Sett

Abstract:

An unsupervised classification algorithm is derived by modeling observed data as a mixture of several mutually exclusive classes that are each described by linear combinations of independent non-Gaussian densities. The algorithm estimates the data density in each class by using parametric nonlinear functions that fit to the non-Gaussian structure of the data. This improves classification accuracy compared with standard Gaussian mixture models. When applied to textures, the algorithm can learn basis functions for images that capture the statistically significant structure intrinsic in the images. We apply this technique to the problem of unsupervised texture classification and segmentation.

Keywords: Gaussian Mixture Model, Independent Component Analysis, Segmentation, Unsupervised Classification.

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Authors: S. Vural, H. Yamauchi

Abstract:

Current systems for face recognition techniques often use either SVM or Adaboost techniques for face detection part and use PCA for face recognition part. In this paper, we offer a novel method for not only a powerful face detection system based on Six-segment-filters (SSR) and Adaboost learning algorithms but also for a face recognition system. A new exclusive face detection algorithm has been developed and connected with the recognition algorithm. As a result of it, we obtained an overall high-system performance compared with current systems. The proposed algorithm was tested on CMU, FERET, UNIBE, MIT face databases and significant performance has obtained.

Keywords: Adaboost, Face Detection, Face recognition, SVM, Gabor filters, PCA-ICA.

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Authors: Ivan C. Mustakerov, Daniela I. Borissova

Abstract:

The paper proposes an approach to ranking a set of potential countries to invest taking into account the investor point of view about importance of different economic indicators. For the goal, a ranking algorithm that contributes to rational decision making is proposed. The described algorithm is based on combinatorial optimization modeling and repeated multi-criteria tasks solution. The final result is list of countries ranked in respect of investor preferences about importance of economic indicators for investment attractiveness. Different scenarios are simulated conforming to different investors preferences. A numerical example with real dataset of indicators is solved. The numerical testing shows the applicability of the described algorithm. The proposed approach can be used with any sets of indicators as ranking criteria reflecting different points of view of investors. 

Keywords: Combinatorial optimization modeling, economics investment attractiveness, economics ranking algorithm, multi-criteria problems.

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Authors: Khaled M.EL-Naggar

Abstract:

In power systems, protective relays must filter their inputs to remove undesirable quantities and retain signal quantities of interest. This job must be performed accurate and fast. A new method for filtering the undesirable components such as DC and harmonic components associated with the fundamental system signals. The method is s based on a dynamic filtering algorithm. The filtering algorithm has many advantages over some other classical methods. It can be used as dynamic on-line filter without the need of parameters readjusting as in the case of classic filters. The proposed filter is tested using different signals. Effects of number of samples and sampling window size are discussed. Results obtained are presented and discussed to show the algorithm capabilities.

Keywords: Protection, DC-offset, Dynamic Filter, Estimation.

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Authors: M. Pourahmadi

Abstract:

The performance of time-reversal MUSIC algorithm will be dramatically degrades in presence of strong noise and multiple scattering (i.e. when scatterers are close to each other). This is due to error in determining the number of scatterers. The present paper provides a new approach to alleviate such a problem using an information theoretic criterion referred as minimum description length (MDL). The merits of the novel approach are confirmed by the numerical examples. The results indicate the time-reversal MUSIC yields accurate estimate of the target locations with considerable noise and multiple scattering in the received signals.

Keywords: Microwave imaging, Time reversal, MUSIC algorithm, Minimum Description Length (MDL).

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Authors: Amon Lasomboon

Abstract:

Since the world printing industry has to confront globalization with a constant change, the Thai printing industry, as a small but increasingly significant part of the world printing industry, cannot inevitably escape but has to encounter with the similar change and also the need to revamp its production processes, designs and technology to make them more appealing to both international and domestic market. The essential question is what is the Thai competitive edge in the printing industry in changing environment? This research is aimed to study the Thai level of competitive edge in terms of marketing, technology, environment friendly, and the level of satisfaction of the process of using printing machines. To access the extent to which is the trends in competitiveness of Thai printing industry, both quantitative and qualitative study were conducted. The quantitative analysis was restricted to 100 respondents. The qualitative analysis was restricted to a focus group of 10 individuals from various backgrounds in the Thai printing industry. The findings from the quantitative analysis revealed that the overall mean scores are 4.53, 4.10, and 3.50 for the competitiveness of marketing, the competitiveness of technology, and the competitiveness of being environment friendly respectively. However, the level of satisfaction for the process of using machines has a mean score only 3.20. The findings from the qualitative analysis have revealed that target customers have increasingly reordered due to their contentment in both low prices and the acceptable quality of the products. Moreover, the Thai printing industry has a tendency to convert to ambient green technology which is friendly to the environment. The Thai printing industry is choosing to produce or substitute with products that are less damaging to the environment. It is also found that the Thai printing industry has been transformed into a very competitive industry which bargaining power rests on consumers who have a variety of choices.

Keywords: Competitiveness, Printing Industry

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Authors: Hanna Ziętara

Abstract:

Gastronomy is one of the oldest forms of commercial activity. It is currently one of the most popular and still dynamically developing branches of business. Socio-economic changes, its widespread occurrence, new techniques or culinary styles affect the almost unlimited possibilities of its development. Importantly, regardless of the form of business adopted, foodservice is strongly related to logistics processes, and areas of foodservice that are closely linked to logistics are of strategic importance. Any inefficiency in logistics processes results in reduced chances for success and achieving competitive advantage by companies belonging to the catering industry. The aim of the paper is to identify the areas of logistic support, occurring in the catering business, and affecting the scope of the logistic processes implemented. The aim of the paper is implemented through a plural homogeneous approach, based on direct observation, text analysis of current documents, and in-depth free targeted interviews.

Keywords: Gastronomy, competitive advantage, logistics, logistics support.

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Authors: K. Kasiri, M. J. Dehghani

Abstract:

In this paper we propose a blind algorithm for peakto- average power ratio (PAPR) reduction in OFDM systems, based on selected mapping (SLM) algorithm as a distortionless method. The main drawback of the conventional SLM technique is the need for transmission of several side information bits, for each data block, which results in loss in data rate transmission. In the proposed method some special number of carriers in the OFDM frame is reserved to be rotated with one of the possible phases according to the number of phase sequence blocks in SLM algorithm. Reserving some limited number of carriers wont effect the reduction in PAPR of OFDM signal. Simulation results show using ML criteria at the receiver will lead to the same system-performance as the conventional SLM algorithm, while there is no need to send any side information to the receiver.

Keywords: Orthogonal Frequency Division Multiplexing(OFDM), Peak-to-Average Power Ratio (PAPR), Selected Mapping(SLM), Blind SLM (BSLM).

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Authors: Mohamed Al Mahdi Eshtawie, Masuri Bin Othman

Abstract:

Finite impulse response (FIR) filters have the advantage of linear phase, guaranteed stability, fewer finite precision errors, and efficient implementation. In contrast, they have a major disadvantage of high order need (more coefficients) than IIR counterpart with comparable performance. The high order demand imposes more hardware requirements, arithmetic operations, area usage, and power consumption when designing and fabricating the filter. Therefore, minimizing or reducing these parameters, is a major goal or target in digital filter design task. This paper presents an algorithm proposed for modifying values and the number of non-zero coefficients used to represent the FIR digital pulse shaping filter response. With this algorithm, the FIR filter frequency and phase response can be represented with a minimum number of non-zero coefficients. Therefore, reducing the arithmetic complexity needed to get the filter output. Consequently, the system characteristic i.e. power consumption, area usage, and processing time are also reduced. The proposed algorithm is more powerful when integrated with multiplierless algorithms such as distributed arithmetic (DA) in designing high order digital FIR filters. Here the DA usage eliminates the need for multipliers when implementing the multiply and accumulate unit (MAC) and the proposed algorithm will reduce the number of adders and addition operations needed through the minimization of the non-zero values coefficients to get the filter output.

Keywords: Pulse shaping Filter, Distributed Arithmetic, Optimization algorithm.

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Authors: Shilpi Lavania, Deepak Nagaria

Abstract:

A mixed method for model order reduction is presented in this paper. The denominator polynomial is derived by matching both Markov parameters and time moments, whereas numerator polynomial derivation and error minimization is done using Genetic Algorithm. The efficiency of the proposed method can be investigated in terms of closeness of the response of reduced order model with respect to that of higher order original model and a comparison of the integral square error as well.

Keywords: Model Order Reduction (MOR), control theory, Markov parameters, time moments, genetic algorithm, Single Input Single Output (SISO).

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Authors: Mona Heydari, Ehsan Motamedian, Seyed Abbas Shojaosadati

Abstract:

Prediction of perturbations after genetic manipulation (especially gene knockout) is one of the important challenges in systems biology. In this paper, a new algorithm is introduced that integrates microarray data into the metabolic model. The algorithm was used to study the change in the cell phenotype after knockout of Gss gene in Escherichia coli BW25113. Algorithm implementation indicated that gene deletion resulted in more activation of the metabolic network. Growth yield was more and less regulating gene were identified for mutant in comparison with the wild-type strain.

Keywords: Metabolic network, gene knockout, flux balance analysis, microarray data, integration.

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Authors: Shih-Ching Lo, Yu-Ping Liao

Abstract:

Social-economic variables influence transportation demand largely. Analyses of discrete choice model consider social-economic variables to study traveler-s mode choice and demand. However, to calibrate the discrete choice model needs to have plenty of questionnaire survey. Also, an aggregative model is proposed. The historical data of passenger volumes for high speed rail and domestic civil aviation are employed to calibrate and validate the model. In this study, models with different social-economic variables, which are oil price, GDP per capita, CPI and economic growth rate, are compared. From the results, the model with the oil price is better than models with the other social-economic variables.

Keywords: forecasting, passenger volume, dynamic competitive model, social-economic variables, oil price.

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