Search results for: Predictive control

Authors: Peyman Sindareh Esfahani, Jeffery Kurt Pieper

Abstract:

In this paper, the problem of robust model predictive control (MPC) for discrete-time linear systems in linear fractional transformation form with structured uncertainty and norm-bounded disturbance is investigated. The problem of minimization of the cost function for MPC design is converted to minimization of the worst case of the cost function. Then, this problem is reduced to minimization of an upper bound of the cost function subject to a terminal inequality satisfying the l₂-norm of the closed loop system. The characteristic of the linear fractional transformation system is taken into account, and by using some mathematical tools, the robust predictive controller design problem is turned into a linear matrix inequality minimization problem. Afterwards, a formulation which includes an integrator to improve the performance of the proposed robust model predictive controller in steady state condition is studied. The validity of the approaches is illustrated through a robust control benchmark problem.

Keywords: Linear fractional transformation, linear matrix inequality, robust model predictive control, state feedback control.

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Authors: P. Javid, A. Aeenmehr, J. Taghavifar

Abstract:

In this paper, supply air pressure of HVAC system has been modeled with second-order transfer function plus dead-time. In HVAC system, the desired input has step changes, and the output of proposed control system should be able to follow the input reference, so the idea of using model based predictive control is proceeded and designed in this paper. The closed loop control system is implemented in MATLAB software and the simulation results are provided. The simulation results show that the model based predictive control is able to control the plant properly.

Keywords: Air conditioning system, GPC, dead time, Air supply control.

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Authors: Tohru Kawabe

Abstract:

In this paper, a 2DOF (two degrees of freedom) PID (Proportional-Integral-Derivative) controller based on MPC (Model predictive control) algorithm fo slip suppression of EV (Electric Vehicle) under braking is proposed. The proposed method aims to improve the safety and the stability of EVs under braking by controlling the wheel slip ration. There also include numerical simulation results to demonstrate the effectiveness of the method.

Keywords: Model predictive control, PID controller, Two degrees of freedom, Electric Vehicle, Slip suppression.

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Authors: Tomoaki Hashimoto

Abstract:

Recent technological advance has prompted significant interest in developing the control theory of quantum systems. Following the increasing interest in the control of quantum dynamics, this paper examines the control problem of Schrödinger equation because quantum dynamics is basically governed by Schrödinger equation. From the practical point of view, stochastic disturbances cannot be avoided in the implementation of control method for quantum systems. Thus, we consider here the robust stabilization problem of Schrödinger equation against stochastic disturbances. In this paper, we adopt model predictive control method in which control performance over a finite future is optimized with a performance index that has a moving initial and terminal time. The objective of this study is to derive the stability criterion for model predictive control of Schrödinger equation under stochastic disturbances.

Keywords: Optimal control, stochastic systems, quantum systems, stabilization.

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Authors: T. H. Lee, J. H. Park, S. M. Lee, S. C. Lee

Abstract:

In this paper, we consider Wiener nonlinear model for solid oxide fuel cell (SOFC). The Wiener model of the SOFC consists of a linear dynamic block and a static output non-linearity followed by the block, in which linear part is approximated by state-space model and the nonlinear part is identified by a polynomial form. To control the SOFC system, we have to consider various view points such as operating conditions, another constraint conditions, change of load current and so on. A change of load current is the significant one of these for good performance of the SOFC system. In order to keep the constant stack terminal voltage by changing load current, the nonlinear model predictive control (MPC) is proposed in this paper. After primary control method is designed to guarantee the fuel utilization as a proper constant, a nonlinear model predictive control based on the Wiener model is developed to control the stack terminal voltage of the SOFC system. Simulation results verify the possibility of the proposed Wiener model and MPC method to control of SOFC system.

Keywords: SOFC, model predictive control, Wiener model.

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Authors: Sadaoui Djaouida

Abstract:

In the paper, the predictive control method is proposed to control the synchronization of two perturbed satellites attitude motion. Based on delayed feedback control of continuous-time systems combines with the prediction-based method of discrete-time systems, this approach only needs a single controller to realize synchronization, which has considerable significance in reducing the cost and complexity for controller implementation.

Keywords: Predictive control, Synchronization, Satellite attitude.

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Authors: Mingyu Xie, Mietek Brdys

Abstract:

The paper develops a Non-Linear Model Predictive Control (NMPC) of water quality in Drinking Water Distribution Systems (DWDS) based on the advanced non-linear quality dynamics model including disinfections by-products (DBPs). A special attention is paid to the analysis of an impact of the flow trajectories prescribed by an upper control level of the recently developed two-time scale architecture of an integrated quality and quantity control in DWDS. The new quality controller is to operate within this architecture in the fast time scale as the lower level quality controller. The controller performance is validated by a comprehensive simulation study based on an example case study DWDS.

Keywords: Model predictive control, hierarchical control structure, genetic algorithm, water quality with DBPs objectives.

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Authors: Ali Emad

Abstract:

Enhancement of the performance of a reverse osmosis (RO) unit through periodic control is studied. The periodic control manipulates the feed pressure and flow rate of the RO unit. To ensure the periodic behavior of the inputs, the manipulated variables (MV) are transformed into the form of sinusoidal functions. In this case, the amplitude and period of the sinusoidal functions become the surrogate MV and are thus regulated via nonlinear model predictive control algorithm. The simulation results indicated that the control system can generate cyclic inputs necessary to enhance the closedloop performance in the sense of increasing the permeate production and lowering the salt concentration. The proposed control system can attain its objective with arbitrary set point for the controlled outputs. Successful results were also obtained in the presence of modeling errors.

Keywords: Reverse osmosis, water desalination, periodic control, model predictive control.

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Authors: Mahdi Zolfaghari, Seyed Hossein Hosseinian, Hossein Askarian Abyaneh, Mehrdad Abedi

Abstract:

This paper presents a virtual active power filter (VAPF) using vehicle to grid (V2G) technology to maintain power quality requirements. The optimal discrete operation of the power converter of electric vehicle (EV) is based on recognizing desired switching states using the model predictive control (MPC) algorithm. A fast dynamic response, lower total harmonic distortion (THD) and good reference tracking performance are realized through the presented control strategy. The simulation results using MATLAB/Simulink validate the effectiveness of the scheme in improving power quality as well as good dynamic response in power transferring capability.

Keywords: Virtual active power filter, V2G technology, model predictive control, electric vehicle, power quality.

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Authors: Tohru Kawabe

Abstract:

In this paper, a new SMC (Sliding Mode Control) method with MP (Model Predictive Control) integral action for the slip suppression of EV (Electric Vehicle) under braking is proposed. The proposed method introduce the integral term with standard SMC gain , where the integral gain is optimized for each control period by the MPC algorithms. The aim of this method is to improve the safety and the stability of EVs under braking by controlling the wheel slip ratio. There also include numerical simulation results to demonstrate the effectiveness of the method.

Keywords: Sliding Mode Control, Model Predictive Control, Integral Action, Electric Vehicle, Slip suppression.

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Authors: Abdelsalam A. Ahmed

Abstract:

Fast speed drives for Permanent Magnet Synchronous Motor (PMSM) is a crucial performance for the electric traction systems. In this paper, PMSM is derived with a Model-based Predictive Control (MPC) technique. Fast speed tracking is achieved through optimization of the DC source utilization using MPC. The technique is based on predicting the optimum voltage vector applied to the driver. Control technique is investigated by comparing to the cascaded PI control based on Space Vector Pulse Width Modulation (SVPWM). MPC and SVPWM-based FOC are implemented with the TMS320F2812 DSP and its power driver circuits. The designed MPC for a PMSM drive is experimentally validated on a laboratory test bench. The performances are compared with those obtained by a conventional PI-based system in order to highlight the improvements, especially regarding speed tracking response.

Keywords: Permanent magnet synchronous motor, mode predictive control, optimization of DC source utilization, cascaded PI control, space vector pulse width modulation, TMS320F2812 DSP.

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Authors: Amira Kheriji Abbes, Faouzi Bouani, Mekki Ksouri

Abstract:

Model Predictive Control (MPC) is an established control technique in a wide range of process industries. The reason for this success is its ability to handle multivariable systems and systems having input, output or state constraints. Neverthless comparing to PID controller, the implementation of the MPC in miniaturized devices like Field Programmable Gate Arrays (FPGA) and microcontrollers has historically been very small scale due to its complexity in implementation and its computation time requirement. At the same time, such embedded technologies have become an enabler for future manufacturing enterprisers as well as a transformer of organizations and markets. In this work, we take advantage of these recent advances in this area in the deployment of one of the most studied and applied control technique in the industrial engineering. In this paper, we propose an efficient firmware for the implementation of constrained MPC in the performed STM32 microcontroller using interior point method. Indeed, performances study shows good execution speed and low computational burden. These results encourage to develop predictive control algorithms to be programmed in industrial standard processes. The PID anti windup controller was also implemented in the STM32 in order to make a performance comparison with the MPC. The main features of the proposed constrained MPC framework are illustrated through two examples.

Keywords: Embedded software, microcontroller, constrainedModel Predictive Control, interior point method, PID antiwindup, Keil tool, C/Cµ language.

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Authors: Vahid Nademi

Abstract:

In response to widely used wearable medical devices equipped with a continuous glucose monitor (CGM) and insulin pump, the advanced control methods are still demanding to get the full benefit of these devices. Unlike costly clinical trials, implementing effective insulin-glucose control strategies can provide significant contributions to the patients suffering from chronic diseases such as diabetes. This study deals with a key role of two-layer insulin-glucose regulator based on model-predictive-control (MPC) scheme so that the patient’s predicted glucose profile is in compliance with the insulin level injected through insulin pump automatically. It is achieved by iterative optimization algorithm which is called an integrated perturbation analysis and sequential quadratic programming (IPA-SQP) solver for handling uncertainties due to unexpected variations in glucose-insulin values and body’s characteristics. The feasibility evaluation of the discussed control approach is also studied by means of numerical simulations of two case scenarios via measured data. The obtained results are presented to verify the superior and reliable performance of the proposed control scheme with no negative impact on patient safety.

Keywords: Blood glucose monitoring, insulin pump, optimization, predictive control, diabetes disease.

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Authors: T. N. Sindhu, M. Aslam

Abstract:

A comprehensive Bayesian analysis has been carried out in the context of informative and non-informative priors for the shape parameter of the Burr type X distribution under different symmetric and asymmetric loss functions. Elicitation of hyperparameter through prior predictive approach is also discussed. Also we derive the expression for posterior predictive distributions, predictive intervals and the credible Intervals. As an illustration, comparisons of these estimators are made through simulation study.

Keywords: Credible Intervals, Loss Functions, Posterior Predictive Distributions, Predictive Intervals.

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Authors: Amira Abbes Kheriji, Faouzi Bouani, Mekki Ksouri, Mohamed Ben Ahmed

Abstract:

Model Predictive Control (MPC) is increasingly being proposed for real time applications and embedded systems. However comparing to PID controller, the implementation of the MPC in miniaturized devices like Field Programmable Gate Arrays (FPGA) and microcontrollers has historically been very small scale due to its complexity in implementation and its computation time requirement. At the same time, such embedded technologies have become an enabler for future manufacturing enterprises as well as a transformer of organizations and markets. Recently, advances in microelectronics and software allow such technique to be implemented in embedded systems. In this work, we take advantage of these recent advances in this area in the deployment of one of the most studied and applied control technique in the industrial engineering. In fact in this paper, we propose an efficient framework for implementation of Generalized Predictive Control (GPC) in the performed STM32 microcontroller. The STM32 keil starter kit based on a JTAG interface and the STM32 board was used to implement the proposed GPC firmware. Besides the GPC, the PID anti windup algorithm was also implemented using Keil development tools designed for ARM processor-based microcontroller devices and working with C/Cµ langage. A performances comparison study was done between both firmwares. This performances study show good execution speed and low computational burden. These results encourage to develop simple predictive algorithms to be programmed in industrial standard hardware. The main features of the proposed framework are illustrated through two examples and compared with the anti windup PID controller.

Keywords: Embedded systems, Model Predictive Control, microcontroller, Keil tool.

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Authors: K. G. Firouzjah, A. Sheikholeslami

Abstract:

The perfect operation of common Active Filters is depended on accuracy of identification system distortion. Also, using a suitable method in current injection and reactive power compensation, leads to increased filter performance. Due to this fact, this paper presents a method based on predictive current control theory in shunt active filter applications. The harmonics of the load current is identified by using o–d–q reference frame on load current and eliminating the DC part of d–q components. Then, the rest of these components deliver to predictive current controller as a Threephase reference current by using Park inverse transformation. System is modeled in discreet time domain. The proposed method has been tested using MATLAB model for a nonlinear load (with Total Harmonic Distortion=20%). The simulation results indicate that the proposed filter leads to flowing a sinusoidal current (THD=0.15%) through the source. In addition, the results show that the filter tracks the reference current accurately.

Keywords: Active filter, predictive current control, low pass filter, harmonic omitting, o–d–q reference frame.

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Authors: Petia Georgieva, Sebastião Feyo de Azevedo

Abstract:

This paper is focused on issues of nonlinear dynamic process modeling and model-based predictive control of a fed-batch sugar crystallization process applying the concept of artificial neural networks as computational tools. The control objective is to force the operation into following optimal supersaturation trajectory. It is achieved by manipulating the feed flow rate of sugar liquor/syrup, considered as the control input. A feed forward neural network (FFNN) model of the process is first built as part of the controller structure to predict the process response over a specified (prediction) horizon. The predictions are supplied to an optimization procedure to determine the values of the control action over a specified (control) horizon that minimizes a predefined performance index. The control task is rather challenging due to the strong nonlinearity of the process dynamics and variations in the crystallization kinetics. However, the simulation results demonstrated smooth behavior of the control actions and satisfactory reference tracking.

Keywords: Feed forward neural network, process modelling, model predictive control, crystallization process.

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Authors: Sheela Tiwari, R. Naresh, R. Jha

Abstract:

The paper presents an investigation in to the effect of neural network predictive control of UPFC on the transient stability performance of a multimachine power system. The proposed controller consists of a neural network model of the test system. This model is used to predict the future control inputs using the damped Gauss-Newton method which employs ‘backtracking’ as the line search method for step selection. The benchmark 2 area, 4 machine system that mimics the behavior of large power systems is taken as the test system for the study and is subjected to three phase short circuit faults at different locations over a wide range of operating conditions. The simulation results clearly establish the robustness of the proposed controller to the fault location, an increase in the critical clearing time for the circuit breakers, and an improved damping of the power oscillations as compared to the conventional PI controller.

Keywords: Identification, Neural networks, Predictive control, Transient stability, UPFC.

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Authors: Markus Mazzola, Gunther Schaaf

Abstract:

A vehicle driving with an Adaptive Cruise Control System (ACC) is usually controlled decentrally, based on the information of radar systems and in some publications based on C2X-Communication (CACC) to guarantee stable platoons. In this paper we present a Model Predictive Control (MPC) design of a centralized, server-based ACC-System, whereby the vehicular platoon is modeled and controlled as a whole. It is then proven that the proposed MPC design guarantees asymptotic stability and hence string stability of the platoon. The Networked MPC design is chosen to be able to integrate system constraints optimally as well as to reduce the effects of communication delay and packet loss. The performance of the proposed controller is then simulated and analyzed in an LTE communication scenario using the LTE/EPC Network Simulator LENA, which is based on the ns-3 network simulator.

Keywords: Adaptive Cruise Control, Centralized Server, Networked Model Predictive Control, String Stability.

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Authors: Ameur Abdelkader, Abed Bouarfa Hafida

Abstract:

Since its inception, predictive analysis has revolutionized the IT industry through its robustness and decision-making facilities. It involves the application of a set of data processing techniques and algorithms in order to create predictive models. Its principle is based on finding relationships between explanatory variables and the predicted variables. Past occurrences are exploited to predict and to derive the unknown outcome. With the advent of big data, many studies have suggested the use of predictive analytics in order to process and analyze big data. Nevertheless, they have been curbed by the limits of classical methods of predictive analysis in case of a large amount of data. In fact, because of their volumes, their nature (semi or unstructured) and their variety, it is impossible to analyze efficiently big data via classical methods of predictive analysis. The authors attribute this weakness to the fact that predictive analysis algorithms do not allow the parallelization and distribution of calculation. In this paper, we propose to extend the predictive analysis algorithm, Classification And Regression Trees (CART), in order to adapt it for big data analysis. The major changes of this algorithm are presented and then a version of the extended algorithm is defined in order to make it applicable for a huge quantity of data.

Keywords: Predictive analysis, big data, predictive analysis algorithms. CART algorithm.

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Authors: Abderrahmane El Kachani, El Mahjoub Chakir, Anass Ait Laachir, Abdelhamid Niaaniaa, Jamal Zerouaoui, Tarik Jarou

Abstract:

This paper presents a wind turbine based on the doubly fed induction generator (DFIG) connected to the utility grid through a shunt active power filter (SAPF). The whole system is controlled by a double nonlinear predictive controller (DNPC). A Taylor series expansion is used to predict the outputs of the system. The control law is calculated by optimization of the cost function. The first nonlinear predictive controller (NPC) is designed to ensure the high performance tracking of the rotor speed and regulate the rotor current of the DFIG, while the second one is designed to control the SAPF in order to compensate the harmonic produces by the three-phase diode bridge supplied by a passive circuit (rd, Ld). As a result, we obtain sinusoidal waveforms of the stator voltage and stator current. The proposed nonlinear predictive controllers (NPCs) are validated via simulation on a 1.5 MW DFIG-based wind turbine connected to an SAPF. The results obtained appear to be satisfactory and promising.

Keywords: Wind power, doubly fed induction generator, shunt active power filter, double nonlinear predictive controller.

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Authors: Irtaza M. Syed, Kaamran Raahemifar

Abstract:

This paper presents a model predictive control (MPC) of a utility interactive (UI) single phase inverter (SPI) for a photovoltaic (PV) system at residential/distribution level. The proposed model uses single-phase phase locked loop (PLL) to synchronize SPI with the grid and performs MPC control in a dq reference frame. SPI model consists of boost converter (BC), maximum power point tracking (MPPT) control, and a full bridge (FB) voltage source inverter (VSI). No PI regulators to tune and carrier and modulating waves are required to produce switching sequence. Instead, the operational model of VSI is used to synthesize sinusoidal current and track the reference. Model is validated using a three kW PV system at the input of UI-SPI in Matlab/Simulink. Implementation and results demonstrate simplicity and accuracy, as well as reliability of the model.

Keywords: Matlab/Simulink, Model Predictive Control, Phase Locked Loop, Single Phase Inverter, Voltage Source Inverter.

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Authors: Igor Astrov, Mikhail Pikkov, Rein Paluoja

Abstract:

This paper focuses on a critical component of the situational awareness (SA), the control of autonomous vertical flight for vectored thrust aerial vehicle (VTAV). With the SA strategy, we proposed a flight control procedure to address the dynamics variation and performance requirement difference of flight trajectory for an unmanned helicopter model with vectored thrust configuration. This control strategy for chosen model of VTAV has been verified by simulation of take-off and forward maneuvers using software package Simulink and demonstrated good performance for fast stabilization of motors, consequently, fast SA with economy in energy can be asserted during search-and-rescue operations.

Keywords: Neural network predictive controller, situational awareness, vectored thrust aerial vehicle.

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Authors: Abdelhalim Kessal

Abstract:

This paper treats a design of combined control of a single phase power factor correction (PFC). The strategy of the proposed control is based on two parts, the first, for the outer loop (DC output regulated voltage), and the second govern the input current of the converter in order to achieve a sinusoidal form in phase with the grid voltage. Two kinds of regulators are used, Fuzzy controller for the outer loop and predictive controller for the inner loop. The controllers are verified and discussed through simulation under MATLAB/Simulink platform. Also an experimental confirmation is applied. Results present a high dynamic performance under various parameters changes.

Keywords: Boost converter, harmonic distortion, Fuzzy, prediction, unity power factor.

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Authors: Vinko Lešić, Mario Vašak, Anita Martinčević, Marko Gulin, Antonio Starčić, Hrvoje Novak

Abstract:

With 40% of total world energy consumption, building systems are developing into technically complex large energy consumers suitable for application of sophisticated power management approaches to largely increase the energy efficiency and even make them active energy market participants. Centralized control system of building heating and cooling managed by economically-optimal model predictive control shows promising results with estimated 30% of energy efficiency increase. The research is focused on implementation of such a method on a case study performed on two floors of our faculty building with corresponding sensors wireless data acquisition, remote heating/cooling units and central climate controller. Building walls are mathematically modeled with corresponding material types, surface shapes and sizes. Models are then exploited to predict thermal characteristics and changes in different building zones. Exterior influences such as environmental conditions and weather forecast, people behavior and comfort demands are all taken into account for deriving price-optimal climate control. Finally, a DC microgrid with photovoltaics, wind turbine, supercapacitor, batteries and fuel cell stacks is added to make the building a unit capable of active participation in a price-varying energy market. Computational burden of applying model predictive control on such a complex system is relaxed through a hierarchical decomposition of the microgrid and climate control, where the former is designed as higher hierarchical level with pre-calculated price-optimal power flows control, and latter is designed as lower level control responsible to ensure thermal comfort and exploit the optimal supply conditions enabled by microgrid energy flows management. Such an approach is expected to enable the inclusion of more complex building subsystems into consideration in order to further increase the energy efficiency.

Keywords: Energy-efficient buildings, Hierarchical model predictive control, Microgrid power flow optimization, Price-optimal building climate control.

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Authors: Takashi Shimizu, Tomoaki Hashimoto

Abstract:

Controlling the flow of fluids is a challenging problem that arises in many fields. Burgers’ equation is a fundamental equation for several flow phenomena such as traffic, shock waves, and turbulence. The optimal feedback control method, so-called model predictive control, has been proposed for Burgers’ equation. However, the model predictive control method is inapplicable to systems whose all state variables are not exactly known. In practical point of view, it is unusual that all the state variables of systems are exactly known, because the state variables of systems are measured through output sensors and limited parts of them can be only available. In fact, it is usual that flow velocities of fluid systems cannot be measured for all spatial domains. Hence, any practical feedback controller for fluid systems must incorporate some type of state estimator. To apply the model predictive control to the fluid systems described by Burgers’ equation, it is needed to establish a state estimation method for Burgers’ equation with limited measurable state variables. To this purpose, we apply unscented Kalman filter for estimating the state variables of fluid systems described by Burgers’ equation. The objective of this study is to establish a state estimation method based on unscented Kalman filter for Burgers’ equation. The effectiveness of the proposed method is verified by numerical simulations.

Keywords: State estimation, fluid systems, observer systems, unscented Kalman filter.

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Authors: Ahmed Abbas, M.R. M Rizk, Mohamed El-Sayed

Abstract:

This paper presents a new adaptive DMC controller that improves the controller performance in case of plant-model mismatch. The new controller monitors the plant measured output, compares it with the model output and calculates weights applied to the controller move. Simulations show that the new controller can help improve control performance and avoid instability in case of severe model mismatches.

Keywords: Adaptive control, dynamic matrix control, DMC, model predictive control

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Authors: N.Vahdatifar, Ss.Mortazavi, R.Kianinezhad

Abstract:

In this paper, a Neural Network based predictive DTC algorithm is proposed .This approach is used as an alternative to classical approaches .An appropriate riate Feed - forward network is chosen and based on its value of derivative electromagnetic torque ; optimal stator voltage vector is determined to be applied to the induction motor (by inverter). Moreover, an appropriate torque and flux observer is proposed.

Keywords: Neural Networks, Predictive DTC

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Authors: P. Georgieva, S. Feyo de Azevedo

Abstract:

This paper is focused on issues of process modeling and two model based control strategies of a fed-batch sugar crystallization process applying the concept of artificial neural networks (ANNs). The control objective is to force the operation into following optimal supersaturation trajectory. It is achieved by manipulating the feed flow rate of sugar liquor/syrup, considered as the control input. The control task is rather challenging due to the strong nonlinearity of the process dynamics and variations in the crystallization kinetics. Two control alternatives are considered – model predictive control (MPC) and feedback linearizing control (FLC). Adequate ANN process models are first built as part of the controller structures. MPC algorithm outperforms the FLC approach with respect to satisfactory reference tracking and smooth control action. However, the MPC is computationally much more involved since it requires an online numerical optimization, while for the FLC an analytical control solution was determined.

Keywords: artificial neural networks, nonlinear model control, process identification, crystallization process

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Authors: Yi-Fan Lin, Peter P. Howley, Frank A. Tuyl

Abstract:

Quality measurement and reporting systems are used in healthcare internationally. In Australia, the Australian Council on Healthcare Standards records and reports hundreds of clinical indicators (CIs) nationally across the healthcare system. These CIs are measures of performance in the clinical setting, and are used as a screening tool to help assess whether a standard of care is being met. Existing analysis and reporting of these CIs incorporate Bayesian methods to address sampling variation; however, such assessments are retrospective in nature, reporting upon the previous six or twelve months of data. The use of Bayesian methods within statistical process control for monitoring systems is an important pursuit to support more timely decision-making. Our research has developed and assessed a new graphical monitoring tool, similar to a control chart, based on the beta-binomial posterior predictive (BBPP) distribution to facilitate the real-time assessment of health care organizational performance via CIs. The BBPP charts have been compared with the traditional Bernoulli CUSUM (BC) chart by simulation. The more traditional “central” and “highest posterior density” (HPD) interval approaches were each considered to define the limits, and the multiple charts were compared via in-control and out-of-control average run lengths (ARLs), assuming that the parameter representing the underlying CI rate (proportion of cases with an event of interest) required estimation. Preliminary results have identified that the BBPP chart with HPD-based control limits provides better out-of-control run length performance than the central interval-based and BC charts. Further, the BC chart’s performance may be improved by using Bayesian parameter estimation of the underlying CI rate.

Keywords: Average run length, Bernoulli CUSUM chart, beta binomial posterior predictive distribution, clinical indicator, health care organization, highest posterior density interval.

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