Search results for: Photovoltaic Power Forecasting
3206 Modeling and Design of MPPT Controller Using Stepped P&O Algorithm in Solar Photovoltaic System
Authors: R. Prakash, B. Meenakshipriya, R. Kumaravelan
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This paper presents modeling and simulation of Grid Connected Photovoltaic (PV) system by using improved mathematical model. The model is used to study different parameter variations and effects on the PV array including operating temperature and solar irradiation level. In this paper stepped P&O algorithm is proposed for MPPT control. This algorithm will identify the suitable duty ratio in which the DC-DC converter should be operated to maximize the power output. Photo voltaic array with proposed stepped P&O-MPPT controller can operate in the maximum power point for the whole range of solar data (irradiance and temperature).
Keywords: Photovoltaic (PV), Maximum Power Point Tracking (MPPT), Boost converter, Stepped Perturb & Observe method (Stepped P&O).
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 40113205 Optimal Design and Simulation of a Grid-Connected Photovoltaic (PV) Power System for an Electrical Department in University of Tripoli-Libya
Authors: Mustafa A. Al-Refai
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This paper presents the optimal design and simulation of a grid-connected Photovoltaic (PV) system to supply electric power to meet the energy demand by Electrical Department in University of Tripoli Libya. Solar radiation is the key factor determining electricity produced by photovoltaic (PV) systems. This paper is designed to develop a novel method to calculate the solar photovoltaic generation capacity on the basis of Mean Global Solar Radiation data available for Tripoli Libya and finally develop a system design of possible plant capacity for the available roof area. MatLab/Simulink Programming tools and monthly average solar radiation data are used for this design and simulation. The specifications of equipments are provided based on the availability of the components in the market. Simulation results and analyses are presented to validate the proposed system configuration.
Keywords: Photovoltaic (PV), solar energy, solar irradiation, Simulink.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 34563204 A Method of Effective Planning and Control of Industrial Facility Energy Consumption
Authors: Aleksandra Aleksandrovna Filimonova, Lev Sergeevich Kazarinov, Tatyana Aleksandrovna Barbasova
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A method of effective planning and control of industrial facility energy consumption is offered. The method allows optimally arranging the management and full control of complex production facilities in accordance with the criteria of minimal technical and economic losses at the forecasting control. The method is based on the optimal construction of the power efficiency characteristics with the prescribed accuracy. The problem of optimal designing of the forecasting model is solved on the basis of three criteria: maximizing the weighted sum of the points of forecasting with the prescribed accuracy; the solving of the problem by the standard principles at the incomplete statistic data on the basis of minimization of the regularized function; minimizing the technical and economic losses due to the forecasting errors.Keywords: Energy consumption, energy efficiency, energy management system, forecasting model, power efficiency characteristics.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 15543203 Effects of Dust on the Performance of PV Panels
Authors: Shaharin A. Sulaiman, Haizatul H. Hussain, Nik Siti H. Nik Leh, Mohd S. I. Razali
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Accumulation of dust from the outdoor environment on the panels of solar photovoltaic (PV) system is natural. There were studies that showed that the accumulated dust can reduce the performance of solar panels, but the results were not clearly quantified. The objective of this research was to study the effects of dust accumulation on the performance of solar PV panels. Experiments were conducted using dust particles on solar panels with a constant-power light source, to determine the resulting electrical power generated and efficiency. It was found from the study that the accumulated dust on the surface of photovoltaic solar panel can reduce the system-s efficiency by up to 50%.Keywords: Dust, Photovoltaic, Solar Energy.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 137333202 Evaluation of A 50MW Two-Axis Tracking Photovoltaic Power Plant for AL-Jagbob, Libya: Energetic, Economic, and Environmental Impact Analysis
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This paper investigates the application of large scale (LS-PV) two-axis tracking photovoltaic power plant in Al-Jagbob, Libya. A 50MW PV-grid connected (two-axis tracking) power plant design in Al-Jagbob, Libya has been carried out presently. A hetero-junction with intrinsic thin layer (HIT) type PV module has been selected and modeled. A Microsoft Excel-VBA program has been constructed to compute slope radiation, dew-point, sky temperature, and then cell temperature, maximum power output and module efficiency for this system, for tracking system. The results for energy production show that the total energy output is 128.5 GWh/year. The average module efficiency is 16.6%. The electricity generation capacity factor (CF) and solar capacity factor (SCF) were found to be 29.3% and 70.4% respectively. A 50MW two axis tracking power plant with a total energy output of 128.5 GWh/year would reduce CO2 pollution by 85,581 tonnes of each year. The payback time for the proposed LS-PV photovoltaic power plant was found to be 4 years.
Keywords: Large PV power plant, solar energy, environmental impact, Dual-axis tracking system.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 36653201 Experimental Study of Boost Converter Based PV Energy System
Authors: T. Abdelkrim, K. Ben seddik, B. Bezza, K. Benamrane, Aeh. Benkhelifa
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This paper proposes an implementation of boost converter for a resistive load using photovoltaic energy as a source. The model of photovoltaic cell and operating principle of boost converter are presented. A PIC microcontroller is used in the close loop control to generate pulses for controlling the converter circuit. To performance evaluation of boost converter, a variation of output voltage of PV panel is done by shading one and two cells.
Keywords: Boost converter, Microcontroller, Photovoltaic power generation, Shading cells.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 40053200 A Real Time Comparison of Standalone and Grid Connected Solar Photovoltaic Generation Systems
Authors: Sachin Vrajlal Rajani, Vivek Pandya, Ankit Suvariya
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Green and renewable energy is getting extraordinary consideration today, because of ecological concerns made by blazing of fossil powers. Photovoltaic and wind power generation are the basic decisions for delivering power in this respects. Producing power by the sun based photovoltaic systems is known to the world, yet control makers may get confounded to pick between on-grid and off-grid systems. In this exploration work, an endeavor is made to compare the off-grid (stand-alone) and on-grid (grid-connected) frameworks. The work presents relative examination, between two distinctive PV frameworks situated at V.V.P. Engineering College, Rajkot. The first framework is 100 kW remain solitary and the second is 60 kW network joined. The real-time parameters compared are; output voltage, load current, power in-flow, power output, performance ratio, yield factor, and capacity factor. The voltage changes and the power variances in both frameworks are given exceptional consideration and the examination is made between the two frameworks to judge the focal points and confinements of both the frameworks.Keywords: Standalone PV systems, grid connected PV systems, comparison, real time data analysis.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 30873199 A New Model for Production Forecasting in ERP
Authors: S. F. Wong, W. I. Ho, B. Lin, Q. Huang
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ERP has been used in many enterprises for management, the accuracy of the production forecasting module is vital to the decision making of the enterprise, and the profit is affected directly. Therefore, enhancing the accuracy of the production forecasting module can also increase the efficiency and profitability. To deal with a lot of data, a suitable, reliable and accurate statistics model is necessary. LSSVM and Grey System are two main models to be studied in this paper, and a case study is used to demonstrate how the combination model is effective to the result of forecasting.
Keywords: ERP, Grey System, LSSVM, production forecasting.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 17933198 Application of Neural Networks in Power Systems; A Review
Authors: M. Tarafdar Haque, A.M. Kashtiban
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The electric power industry is currently undergoing an unprecedented reform. One of the most exciting and potentially profitable recent developments is increasing usage of artificial intelligence techniques. The intention of this paper is to give an overview of using neural network (NN) techniques in power systems. According to the growth rate of NNs application in some power system subjects, this paper introduce a brief overview in fault diagnosis, security assessment, load forecasting, economic dispatch and harmonic analyzing. Advantages and disadvantages of using NNs in above mentioned subjects and the main challenges in these fields have been explained, too.
Keywords: Neural network, power system, security assessment, fault diagnosis, load forecasting, economic dispatch, harmonic analyzing.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 78053197 Electric Load Forecasting Using Genetic Based Algorithm, Optimal Filter Estimator and Least Error Squares Technique: Comparative Study
Authors: Khaled M. EL-Naggar, Khaled A. AL-Rumaih
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This paper presents performance comparison of three estimation techniques used for peak load forecasting in power systems. The three optimum estimation techniques are, genetic algorithms (GA), least error squares (LS) and, least absolute value filtering (LAVF). The problem is formulated as an estimation problem. Different forecasting models are considered. Actual recorded data is used to perform the study. The performance of the above three optimal estimation techniques is examined. Advantages of each algorithms are reported and discussed.
Keywords: Forecasting, Least error squares, Least absolute Value, Genetic algorithms
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 27233196 Artificial Neural Network-Based Short-Term Load Forecasting for Mymensingh Area of Bangladesh
Authors: S. M. Anowarul Haque, Md. Asiful Islam
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Electrical load forecasting is considered to be one of the most indispensable parts of a modern-day electrical power system. To ensure a reliable and efficient supply of electric energy, special emphasis should have been put on the predictive feature of electricity supply. Artificial Neural Network-based approaches have emerged to be a significant area of interest for electric load forecasting research. This paper proposed an Artificial Neural Network model based on the particle swarm optimization algorithm for improved electric load forecasting for Mymensingh, Bangladesh. The forecasting model is developed and simulated on the MATLAB environment with a large number of training datasets. The model is trained based on eight input parameters including historical load and weather data. The predicted load data are then compared with an available dataset for validation. The proposed neural network model is proved to be more reliable in terms of day-wise load forecasting for Mymensingh, Bangladesh.Keywords: Load forecasting, artificial neural network, particle swarm optimization.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 6863195 Modeling and Simulation of Photovoltaic based LED Lighting System
Authors: Ankit R Patel, Ankit A Patel, Mahesh A Patel, Dhaval R Vyas
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Although lighting systems powered by Photovoltaic (PV) cells have existed for many years, they are not widely used, especially in lighting for buildings, due to their high initial cost and low conversion efficiency. One of the technical challenges facing PV powered lighting systems has been how to use dc power generated by the PV module to energize common light sources that are designed to operate efficiently under ac power. Usually, the efficiency of the dc light sources is very poor compared to ac light sources. Rapid developments in LED lighting systems have made this technology a potential candidate for PV powered lighting systems. This study analyzed the efficiency of each component of PV powered lighting systems to identify optimum system configurations for different applications.Keywords: Energy Efficiency, LED, Modeling of systems, Photovoltaic.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 32013194 The Techno-Economic and Environmental Assessments of Grid-Connected Photovoltaic Systems in Bhubaneswar, India
Authors: A. K. Pradhan, M. K. Mohanty, S. K. Kar
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The power system utility has started to think about the green power technology in order to have an eco-friendly environment. The green power technology utilizes renewable energy sources for reduction of GHG emissions. Odisha state (India) is very rich in potential of renewable energy sources especially in solar energy (about 300 solar days), for installation of grid connected photovoltaic system. This paper focuses on the utilization of photovoltaic systems in an Institute building of Bhubaneswar city, Odisha. Different data like solar insolation (kW/m2/day), sunshine duration has been collected from metrological stations for Bhubaneswar city. The required electrical power and cost are calculated for daily load of 1.0 kW. The HOMER (Hybrid Optimization Model of Electric Renewable) software is used to estimate system size and its performance analysis. The simulation result shows that the cost of energy (COE) is $ 0.194/kWh, the Operating cost is $63/yr and the net present cost (NPC) is $3,917. The energy produced from PV array is 1,756kWh/yr and energy purchased from grid is 410kWh/yr. The AC primary load consumption is 1314 kWh/yr and the Grid sales are 746 kWh/yr. One battery is connected in parallel with 12V DC Bus and the usable nominal capacity 2.4 kWh with 9.6 h autonomy capacity.
Keywords: Economic assessment, HOMER, Optimization, Photovoltaic (PV), Renewable energy.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 22623193 Unbalanced Distribution Optimal Power Flow to Minimize Losses with Distributed Photovoltaic Plants
Authors: Malinwo Estone Ayikpa
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Electric power systems are likely to operate with minimum losses and voltage meeting international standards. This is made possible generally by control actions provide by automatic voltage regulators, capacitors and transformers with on-load tap changer (OLTC). With the development of photovoltaic (PV) systems technology, their integration on distribution networks has increased over the last years to the extent of replacing the above mentioned techniques. The conventional analysis and simulation tools used for electrical networks are no longer able to take into account control actions necessary for studying distributed PV generation impact. This paper presents an unbalanced optimal power flow (OPF) model that minimizes losses with association of active power generation and reactive power control of single-phase and three-phase PV systems. Reactive power can be generated or absorbed using the available capacity and the adjustable power factor of the inverter. The unbalance OPF is formulated by current balance equations and solved by primal-dual interior point method. Several simulation cases have been carried out varying the size and location of PV systems and the results show a detailed view of the impact of PV distributed generation on distribution systems.
Keywords: Distribution system, losses, photovoltaic generation, primal-dual interior point method, reactive power control.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 10803192 Power Management Strategy for Solar-Wind-Diesel Stand-alone Hybrid Energy System
Authors: Md. Aminul Islam, Adel Merabet, Rachid Beguenane, Hussein Ibrahim
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This paper presents a simulation and mathematical model of stand-alone solar-wind-diesel based hybrid energy system (HES). A power management system is designed for multiple energy resources in a stand-alone hybrid energy system. Both Solar photovoltaic and wind energy conversion system consists of maximum power point tracking (MPPT), voltage regulation, and basic power electronic interfaces. An additional diesel generator is included to support and improve the reliability of stand-alone system when renewable energy sources are not available. A power management strategy is introduced to distribute the generated power among resistive load banks. The frequency regulation is developed with conventional phase locked loop (PLL) system. The power management algorithm was applied in Matlab®/Simulink® to simulate the results.
Keywords: Solar photovoltaic, wind energy, diesel engine, hybrid energy system, power management, frequency and voltage regulation.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 47123191 Optimal Operation of a Photovoltaic Induction Motor Drive Water Pumping System
Authors: Nelson K. Lujara
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The performance characteristics of a photovoltaic induction motor drive water pumping system with and without maximum power tracker is analyzed and presented. The analysis is done through determination and assessment of critical loss components in the system using computer aided design (CAD) tools for optimal operation of the system. The results can be used to formulate a well-calibrated computer aided design package of photovoltaic water pumping systems based on the induction motor drive. The results allow the design engineer to pre-determine the flow rate and efficiency of the system to suit particular application.
Keywords: Photovoltaic, water pumping, losses, induction motor.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 17473190 The Use of S Curves in Technology Forecasting and its Application On 3D TV Technology
Authors: Gizem Intepe, Tufan Koc
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S-Curves are commonly used in technology forecasting. They show the paths of product performance in relation to time or investment in R&D. It is a useful tool to describe the inflection points and the limit of improvement of a technology. Companies use this information to base their innovation strategies. However inadequate use and some limitations of this technique lead to problems in decision making. In this paper first technology forecasting and its importance for company level strategies will be discussed. Secondly the S-Curve and its place among other forecasting techniques will be introduced. Thirdly its use in technology forecasting will be discussed based on its advantages, disadvantages and limitations. Finally an application of S-curve on 3D TV technology using patent data will also be presented and the results will be discussed.Keywords: Patent analysis, Technological forecasting. S curves, 3D TV
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 77843189 Active Power Filtering Implementation Using Photovoltaic System with Reduced Energy Storage Capacitor
Authors: Horng-Yuan Wu, Chin-Yuan Hsu, Tsair-Fwu Lee
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A novel three-phase active power filter (APF) circuit with photovoltaic (PV) system to improve the quality of service and to reduce the capacity of energy storage capacitor is presented. The energy balance concept and sampling technique were used to simplify the calculation algorithm for the required utility source current and to control the voltage of the energy storage capacitor. The feasibility was verified by using the Pspice simulations and experiments. When the APF mode was used during non-operational period, not only the utilization rate, power factor and power quality could be improved, but also the capacity of energy storage capacitor could sparing. As the results, the advantages of the APF circuit are simplicity of control circuits, low cost, and good transient response.
Keywords: active power filter, sampling, energy-storagecapacitor, harmonic current, energy balance.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 18843188 Embodiment Design of an Azimuth-Altitude Solar Tracker
Authors: M. Culman, O. Lengerke
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To provide an efficient solar generation system, the embodiment design of a two axis solar tracker for an array of photovoltaic (PV) panels destiny to supply the power demand on off-the-grid areas was developed. Photovoltaic cells have high costs in relation to t low efficiency; and while a lot of research and investment has been made to increases its efficiency a few points, there is a profitable solution that increases by 30-40% the annual power production: two axis solar trackers. A solar tracker is a device that supports a load in a perpendicular position toward the sun during daylight. Mounted on solar trackers, the solar panels remain perpendicular to the incoming sunlight at day and seasons so the maximum amount of energy is outputted. Through a preview research done it was justified why the generation of solar energy through photovoltaic panels mounted on dual axis structures is an attractive solution to bring electricity to remote off-the-grid areas. The work results are the embodiment design of an azimuth-altitude solar tracker to guide an array of photovoltaic panels based on a specific design methodology. The designed solar tracker is mounted on a pedestal that uses two slewing drives‚ with a nominal torque of 1950 Nm‚ to move a solar array that provides 3720 W from 12 PV panels.
Keywords: Azimuth-altitude sun tracker, dual-axis solar tracker, photovoltaic system, solar energy, stand-alone power system.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 17843187 Short-Term Load Forecasting Based on Variational Mode Decomposition and Least Square Support Vector Machine
Authors: Jiangyong Liu, Xiangxiang Xu, Bote Luo, Xiaoxue Luo, Jiang Zhu, Lingzhi Yi
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To address the problems of non-linearity and high randomness of the original power load sequence causing the degradation of power load forecasting accuracy, a short-term load forecasting method is proposed. The method is based on the least square support vector machine (LSSVM) optimized by an improved sparrow search algorithm combined with the variational mode decomposition proposed in this paper. The application of the variational mode decomposition technique decomposes the raw power load data into a series of intrinsic mode functions components, which can reduce the complexity and instability of the raw data while overcoming modal confounding; the proposed improved sparrow search algorithm can solve the problem of difficult selection of learning parameters in the LSSVM. Finally, through comparison experiments, the results show that the method can effectively improve prediction accuracy.
Keywords: Load forecasting, variational mode decomposition, improved sparrow search algorithm, least square support vector machine.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 503186 Contribution to the Study and Optimal Exploitation of a Solar Power System for a Semi-Arid Zone (Case Study: Ferkene, Algeria)
Authors: D. Dib, W. Guebabi, M. B. Guesmi
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The objective of this paper is a contribution to a study of power supply by solar energy system called a common Ferkène north of Algerian desert in the semi-arid area. The optimal exploitation of the system, goes through stages of study and essential design, the choice of the model of the photovoltaic panel, the study of behavior with all the parameters involved in simulation before fixing the trajectory tracking the maximum point the power to extract (MPPT), form the essential platform to shape the design of the solar system set up to supply the town Ferkène without considering the grid. The identification of the common Ferkène by the collection of geographical, meteorological, demographic and electrical provides a basis uniform and important data. The results reflect a valid fictive model for any attempt to study and design a solar system to supply an arid or semi-arid zone by electrical energy from photovoltaic panels.
Keywords: Solar power, photovoltaic panel, Boost converter, supply, design, electric power, Ferkène, Algeria.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 17523185 Interfacing Photovoltaic Systems to the Utility Grid: A Comparative Simulation Study to Mitigate the Impact of Unbalanced Voltage Dips
Authors: Badr M. Alshammari, A. Rabeh, A. K. Mohamed
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This paper presents the modeling and the control of a grid-connected photovoltaic system (PVS). Firstly, the MPPT control of the PVS and its associated DC/DC converter has been analyzed in order to extract the maximum of available power. Secondly, the control system of the grid side converter (GSC) which is a three-phase voltage source inverter (VSI) has been presented. A special attention has been paid to the control algorithms of the GSC converter during grid voltages imbalances. Especially, three different control objectives are to achieve; the mitigation of the grid imbalance adverse effects, at the point of common coupling (PCC), on the injected currents, the elimination of double frequency oscillations in active power flow, and the elimination of double frequency oscillations in reactive power flow. Simulation results of two control strategies have been performed via MATLAB software in order to demonstrate the particularities of each control strategy according to power quality standards.
Keywords: Renewable energies, photovoltaic systems, DC link, voltage source inverter, space vector SVPWM, unbalanced voltage dips, symmetrical components.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 16253184 Hourly Electricity Load Forecasting: An Empirical Application to the Italian Railways
Authors: M. Centra
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Due to the liberalization of countless electricity markets, load forecasting has become crucial to all public utilities for which electricity is a strategic variable. With the goal of contributing to the forecasting process inside public utilities, this paper addresses the issue of applying the Holt-Winters exponential smoothing technique and the time series analysis for forecasting the hourly electricity load curve of the Italian railways. The results of the analysis confirm the accuracy of the two models and therefore the relevance of forecasting inside public utilities.
Keywords: ARIMA models, Exponential smoothing, Electricity, Load forecasting, Rail transportation.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 26313183 Comparison of Zero Voltage Soft Switching and Hard Switching Boost Converter with Maximum Power Point Tracking
Authors: N. Ravi Kumar, R. Kamalakannan
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The inherent nature of normal boost converter has more voltage stress across the power electronics switch and ripple. The presented formation of the front end rectifier stage for a photovoltaic (PV) organization is mainly used to give the supply. Further increasing of the solar efficiency is achieved by connecting the zero voltage soft switching boost converter. The zero voltage boost converter is used to convert the low level DC voltage to high level DC voltage. The inherent nature of zero voltage switching boost converter is used to shrink the voltage tension across the power electronics switch and ripple. The input stage allows the determined power point tracking to be used to extract supreme power from the sun when it is available. The hardware setup was implemented by using PIC Micro controller (16F877A).
Keywords: Boost converter, duty cycle, hard switching, MOSFET, maximum power point tracking, photovoltaic, soft switching, zero voltage switching.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 12043182 Forecasting Stock Price Manipulation in Capital Market
Authors: F. Rahnamay Roodposhti, M. Falah Shams, H. Kordlouie
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The aim of the article is extending and developing econometrics and network structure based methods which are able to distinguish price manipulation in Tehran stock exchange. The principal goal of the present study is to offer model for approximating price manipulation in Tehran stock exchange. In order to do so by applying separation method a sample consisting of 397 companies accepted at Tehran stock exchange were selected and information related to their price and volume of trades during years 2001 until 2009 were collected and then through performing runs test, skewness test and duration correlative test the selected companies were divided into 2 sets of manipulated and non manipulated companies. In the next stage by investigating cumulative return process and volume of trades in manipulated companies, the date of starting price manipulation was specified and in this way the logit model, artificial neural network, multiple discriminant analysis and by using information related to size of company, clarity of information, ratio of P/E and liquidity of stock one year prior price manipulation; a model for forecasting price manipulation of stocks of companies present in Tehran stock exchange were designed. At the end the power of forecasting models were studied by using data of test set. Whereas the power of forecasting logit model for test set was 92.1%, for artificial neural network was 94.1% and multi audit analysis model was 90.2%; therefore all of the 3 aforesaid models has high power to forecast price manipulation and there is no considerable difference among forecasting power of these 3 models.Keywords: Price Manipulation, Liquidity, Size of Company, Floating Stock, Information Clarity
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 28533181 Optimum Design of Photovoltaic Water Pumping System Application
Authors: Sarah Abdourraziq, Rachid El Bachtiri
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The solar power source for pumping water is one of the most promising areas in photovoltaic applications. The implementation of these systems allows to protect the environment and reduce the CO2 gas emission compared to systems trained by diesel generators. This paper presents a comparative study between the photovoltaic pumping system driven by DC motor, and AC motor to define the optimum design of this application. The studied system consists of PV array, DC-DC Boost Converter, inverter, motor-pump set and storage tank. The comparison was carried out to define the characteristics and the performance of each system. Each subsystem is modeled in order to simulate the whole system in MATLAB/ Simulink. The results show the efficiency of the proposed technique.
Keywords: Photovoltaic water pumping system, DC motor-pump, AC motor-pump, DC-DC boost converter.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 19293180 One Hour Ahead Load Forecasting Using Artificial Neural Network for the Western Area of Saudi Arabia
Authors: A. J. Al-Shareef, E. A. Mohamed, E. Al-Judaibi
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Load forecasting has become in recent years one of the major areas of research in electrical engineering. Most traditional forecasting models and artificial intelligence neural network techniques have been tried out in this task. Artificial neural networks (ANN) have lately received much attention, and a great number of papers have reported successful experiments and practical tests. This article presents the development of an ANN-based short-term load forecasting model with improved generalization technique for the Regional Power Control Center of Saudi Electricity Company, Western Operation Area (SEC-WOA). The proposed ANN is trained with weather-related data and historical electric load-related data using the data from the calendar years 2001, 2002, 2003, and 2004 for training. The model tested for one week at five different seasons, typically, winter, spring, summer, Ramadan and fall seasons, and the mean absolute average error for one hour-ahead load forecasting found 1.12%.
Keywords: Artificial neural networks, short-term load forecasting, back propagation.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 21123179 Selection of Photovoltaic Solar Power Plant Investment Projects - An ANP Approach
Authors: P. Aragonés-Beltrán, F. Chaparro-González, J. P. Pastor Ferrando, M. García-Melón
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In this paper the Analytic Network Process (ANP) is applied to the selection of photovoltaic (PV) solar power projects. These projects follow a long management and execution process from plant site selection to plant start-up. As a consequence, there are many risks of time delays and even of project stoppage. In the case study presented in this paper a top manager of an important Spanish company that operates in the power market has to decide on the best PV project (from four alternative projects) to invest based on risk minimization. The manager identified 50 project execution delay and/or stoppage risks. The influences among elements of the network (groups of risks and alternatives) were identified and analyzed using the ANP multicriteria decision analysis method. After analyzing the results the main conclusion is that the network model can manage all the information of the real-world problem and thus it is a decision analysis model recommended by the authors. The strengths and weaknesses ANP as a multicriteria decision analysis tool are also described in the paper.Keywords: Multicriteria decision analysis, Analytic Network Process, Photovoltaic solar power projects.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 21313178 Electricity Price Forecasting: A Comparative Analysis with Shallow-ANN and DNN
Authors: Fazıl Gökgöz, Fahrettin Filiz
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Electricity prices have sophisticated features such as high volatility, nonlinearity and high frequency that make forecasting quite difficult. Electricity price has a volatile and non-random character so that, it is possible to identify the patterns based on the historical data. Intelligent decision-making requires accurate price forecasting for market traders, retailers, and generation companies. So far, many shallow-ANN (artificial neural networks) models have been published in the literature and showed adequate forecasting results. During the last years, neural networks with many hidden layers, which are referred to as DNN (deep neural networks) have been using in the machine learning community. The goal of this study is to investigate electricity price forecasting performance of the shallow-ANN and DNN models for the Turkish day-ahead electricity market. The forecasting accuracy of the models has been evaluated with publicly available data from the Turkish day-ahead electricity market. Both shallow-ANN and DNN approach would give successful result in forecasting problems. Historical load, price and weather temperature data are used as the input variables for the models. The data set includes power consumption measurements gathered between January 2016 and December 2017 with one-hour resolution. In this regard, forecasting studies have been carried out comparatively with shallow-ANN and DNN models for Turkish electricity markets in the related time period. The main contribution of this study is the investigation of different shallow-ANN and DNN models in the field of electricity price forecast. All models are compared regarding their MAE (Mean Absolute Error) and MSE (Mean Square) results. DNN models give better forecasting performance compare to shallow-ANN. Best five MAE results for DNN models are 0.346, 0.372, 0.392, 0,402 and 0.409.Keywords: Deep learning, artificial neural networks, energy price forecasting, Turkey.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 10983177 Design Considerations of PV Water Pumping and Rural Electricity System (2011) in Lower Myanmar
Authors: Nang Saw Yuzana Kya ing, Wunna Swe
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Photovoltaic (PV) systems provides a viable means of power generation for applications like powering residential appliances, electrification of villages in rural areas, refrigeration and water pumping. Photovoltaic-power generation is reliable. The operation and maintenance costs are very low. Since Myanmar is a land of plentiful sunshine, especially in central and southern regions of the country, the solar energy could hopefully become the final solution to its energy supply problem in rural area.Keywords: Myanmar, Standalone PV Inverter, PV WaterPumping, Design Analysis, Induction Motor Driving System
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 2504