Search results for: Weighted Class Complexity

Authors: Münevver Başman, Ezel Tavşancıl

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Making the right decisions about students depends on teachers’ use of the assessment and evaluation techniques effectively. In order to do that, teachers should have positive attitudes and adequate self-efficacy perception towards assessment and evaluation. The purpose of this study is to investigate relationship between self-efficacy perception and the attitudes of prospective teachers towards assessment and evaluation and what kind of differences these issues have in terms of a variety of demographic variables. The study group consisted of 277 prospective teachers who have been studying in different departments of Marmara University, Faculty of Education. In this study, ‘Personal Information Form’, ‘A Perceptual Scale for Measurement and Evaluation of Prospective Teachers Self-Efficacy in Education’ and ‘Attitudes toward Educational Measurement Inventory’ are applied. As a result, positive correlation was found between self-efficacy perceptions and the attitudes of prospective teachers towards assessment and evaluation. Considering different departments, there is a significant difference between the mean score of attitudes of prospective teachers and between the mean score of self-efficacy perceptions of them. However, considering variables of attending statistics class and the class types at the graduated high school, there is no significant difference between the mean score of attitudes of prospective teachers and between the mean score of self-efficacy perceptions of them.

Keywords: Attitude, perception, prospective teacher, self-efficacy.

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Authors: C. Wan, A. Mita

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This paper proposes a novel system for monitoring the health of underground pipelines. Some of these pipelines transport dangerous contents and any damage incurred might have catastrophic consequences. However, most of these damage are unintentional and usually a result of surrounding construction activities. In order to prevent these potential damages, monitoring systems are indispensable. This paper focuses on acoustically recognizing road cutters since they prelude most construction activities in modern cities. Acoustic recognition can be easily achieved by installing a distributed computing sensor network along the pipelines and using smart sensors to “listen" for potential threat; if there is a real threat, raise some form of alarm. For efficient pipeline monitoring, a novel monitoring approach is proposed. Principal Component Analysis (PCA) was studied and applied. Eigenvalues were regarded as the special signature that could characterize a sound sample, and were thus used for the feature vector for sound recognition. The denoising ability of PCA could make it robust to noise interference. One class SVM was used for classifier. On-site experiment results show that the proposed PCA and SVM based acoustic recognition system will be very effective with a low tendency for raising false alarms.

Keywords: One class SVM, pipeline monitoring system, principal component analysis, sound recognition, third party damage.

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Authors: Saimir Heta, Ilma Robo, Rialda Xhizdari, Kers Kapaj

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The stability of an ideal disinfectant should be constant regardless of the change in the atmospheric conditions of the environment where it is kept. If the conditions such as temperature or humidity change, it is understood that it will also be necessary to approach possible changes in the holding materials such as plastic or glass bottles with the aim of protecting the disinfectant, for example, from the excessive lighting of the environment, which can also be translated as an increase in the temperature of disinfectant as a fluid. In this study, an attempt was made to find the most recent published data about the best possible combination of disinfectants indicated for use after dental procedures. This purpose of the study was realized by comparing the basic literature that is studied in the field of dentistry by students with the most published data in the literature of recent years about this topic. Each disinfectant is represented by a number called the disinfectant count, in which different factors can influence the increase or reduction of variables whose production remains a specific statistic for a specific disinfectant. The changes in the atmospheric conditions where the disinfectant is deposited and stored in the environment are known to affect the stability of the disinfectant as a fluid; this fact is known and even cited in the leaflets accompanying the manufactured boxes of disinfectants. It is these cares, in the form of advice, which are based not only on the preservation of the disinfectant but also on the application in order to have the desired clinical result. Aldehydes have the highest constant among the types of disinfectants, followed by acids. The lowest value of the constant belongs to the class of glycols, the predecessors of which were the halogens, in which class there are some representatives with disinfection applications. The class of phenols and acids have almost the same intervals of constants. If the goal were to find the ideal disinfectant among the large variety of disinfectants produced, a good starting point would be to find something unchanging or a fixed, unchanging element on the basis of which the comparison can be made properties of different disinfectants. Precisely based on the results of this study, the role of the specific constant according to the specific disinfectant is highlighted. Finding an ideal disinfectant, like finding a medication or the ideal antibiotic, is an ongoing but unattainable goal.

Keywords: Different disinfectants, phenols, aldehydes, specific constant, dental procedures.

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Authors: Jiashang Jiang, Yongxin Yuan

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In this paper we develop an efficient numerical method for the finite-element model updating of damped gyroscopic systems based on incomplete complex modal measured data. It is assumed that the analytical mass and stiffness matrices are correct and only the damping and gyroscopic matrices need to be updated. By solving a constrained optimization problem, the optimal corrected symmetric damping matrix and skew-symmetric gyroscopic matrix complied with the required eigenvalue equation are found under a weighted Frobenius norm sense.

Keywords: Model updating, damped gyroscopic system, partially prescribed spectral information.

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Authors: Ahmad Habibizad Navin, Yasaman Hashemi, Omid Mirmotahari

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In this paper, we introduce a novel platform encryption method, which modify its keys and random number generators step by step during encryption algorithms. According to complexity of the proposed algorithm, it was safer than any other method.

Keywords: Decryption, Encryption, Algorithm, security.

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Authors: Ersin Kaya, Bulent Oran, Ahmet Arslan

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In this study, fuzzy rule-based classifier is used for the diagnosis of congenital heart disease. Congenital heart diseases are defined as structural or functional heart disease. Medical data sets were obtained from Pediatric Cardiology Department at Selcuk University, from years 2000 to 2003. Firstly, fuzzy rules were generated by using medical data. Then the weights of fuzzy rules were calculated. Two different reasoning methods as “weighted vote method" and “singles winner method" were used in this study. The results of fuzzy classifiers were compared.

Keywords: Congenital heart disease, Fuzzy rule-basedclassifiers, Classification

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Authors: R. Pääkkönen, L. Korpinen, F. Gobba

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The objective of our study is to investigate UV exposure in Finland through sample measurements as a typical case study in summer and winter. We measured UV-BC weighted radiation and calculated a daily dose, which is about 100–150 times the Finnish exposure limit value in summer and 1–6 times in winter. The measured ultraviolet indices varied from 0 to 7 (scale 0–18), which is less than the values obtained in countries that are located farther south from Tampere latitude of 61 degrees. In wintertime, the UV exposure was modest compared to summertime, 50–150 mW/m² and about 1–5 mW/m² in summer and winter, respectively. However, technical means to manage UV exposure in Scandinavia are also needed in summer- and springtime.

Keywords: Ultraviolet radiation, measurement, winter, summer.

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Authors: David Sherwell, Vivien Visaya

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We consider the topological entropy of maps that in general, cannot be described by one-dimensional dynamics. In particular, we show that for a multivalued map F generated by singlevalued maps, the topological entropy of any of the single-value map bounds the topological entropy of F from below.

Keywords: Multivalued maps, Topological entropy, Selectors

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Authors: S. Assi, M. Haffar

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Teaching statistics is a critical and challenging issue especially to students from multidisciplinary and diverse postgraduate backgrounds. Postgraduate research students require statistics not only for the design of experiments; but also for data analysis. Students often perceive statistics as a complex and technical subject; thus, they leave data analysis to the last moment. The lecture needs to be simple and inclusive at the same time to make it comprehendible and address the learning needs of each student. Therefore, the aim of this work was to design a simple and comprehendible statistics lecture to postgraduate research students regarding ‘Research plan, design and data collection’. The lecture adopted the constructive alignment learning theory which facilitated the learning environments for the students. The learning environment utilized a student-centered approach and used interactive learning environment with in-class discussion, handouts and electronic voting system handsets. For evaluation of the lecture, formative assessment was made with in-class discussions and poll questions which were introduced during and after the lecture. The whole approach showed to be effective in creating a learning environment to the students who were able to apply the concepts addressed to their individual research projects.

Keywords: Teaching, statistics, lecture, multidisciplinary, postgraduate, learning theory, learning environment, student-centered approach, data analysis.

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Authors: Subramaniam Chandran

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This paper explains how mobile learning assures sustainable e-education for multicultural group of students. This paper reports the impact of mobile learning on distance education in multicultural environment. The emergence of learning technologies through CD, internet, and mobile is increasingly adopted by distance institutes for quick delivery and cost-effective purposes. Their sustainability is conditioned by the structure of learners as well as the teaching community. The experimental study was conducted among the distant learners of Vinayaka Missions University located at Salem in India. Students were drawn from multicultural environment based on different languages, religions, class and communities. During the mobile learning sessions, the students, who are divided on language, religion, class and community, were dominated by play impulse rather than study anxiety or cultural inhibitions. This study confirmed that mobile learning improved the performance of the students despite their division based on region, language or culture. In other words, technology was able to transcend the relative deprivation in the multicultural groups. It also confirms sustainable e-education through mobile learning and cost-effective system of instruction. Mobile learning appropriates the self-motivation and play impulse of the young learners in providing sustainable e-education to multicultural social groups of students.

Keywords: E-Education, mobile learning, multiculturalism.

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Authors: N.Subramanian, U.K.Misra

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The aim of this paper is to introduce and study a new concept of strong double χ2 (M,A, Δ) of fuzzy numbers and also some properties of the resulting sequence spaces of fuzzy numbers were examined.

Keywords: Modulus function, fuzzy number, metric space.

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Authors: Akram A. Mustafa

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In this paper an approaches for increasing the effectiveness of error detection in computer network channels with Pulse-Amplitude Modulation (PAM) has been proposed. Proposed approaches are based on consideration of special feature of errors, which are appearances in line with PAM. The first approach consists of CRC modification specifically for line with PAM. The second approach is base of weighted checksums using. The way for checksum components coding has been developed. It has been shown that proposed checksum modification ensure superior digital data control transformation reliability for channels with PAM in compare to CRC.

Keywords: Pulse-Amplitude Modulation, checksum, transmission, discrete.

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Authors: Calin Veghes

Abstract:

The concept of privacy, seen in connection to the consumer's private space and personalization, has recently gained a higher importance as a consequence of the increasing marketing efforts of the organizations based on the capturing, processing and usage of consumer-s personal data.Paper intends to provide a definition of the consumer-s private space based on the types of personal data the consumer is willing to disclose, to assess the attitude toward personalization and to identify the means preferred by consumers to control their personal data and defend their private space. Several implications generated through the definition of the consumer-s private space are identified and weighted from both the consumers- and organizations- perspectives.

Keywords: Consumer private space, personalization, privacy.

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Authors: Eberechi Weli, Michael Todinov

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The gap between the selection of risk-reduction options in the railway industry and the task of their effective implementation results in compromised safety and substantial losses. An effective risk management must necessarily integrate the evaluation phases with the implementation phase. This paper proposes an essential categorisation of risk reduction measures that best addresses a standard railway industry portfolio. By categorising the risk reduction options into design, operational, procedural and technical options, it is guaranteed that the efforts of the implementation facilitators (people, processes and supporting systems) are systematically harmonised. The classification is based on an integration of fundamental principles of risk reduction in the railway industry with the systems engineering approach.

This paper argues that the use of a similar classification approach is an attribute of organisations possessing a superior level of risk-reduction readiness. The integration of the proposed rational classification structure provides a solid ground for effective risk reduction.

Keywords: Cost effectiveness, organisational readiness, risk reduction, railway, system engineering.

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Authors: Tet H. Yeap

Abstract:

An analog restricted Hopfield Network is presented in this paper. It consists of two layers of nodes, visible and hidden nodes, connected by directional weighted paths forming a bipartite graph with no intralayer connection. An energy or Lyapunov function was derived to show that the proposed network will converge to stable states. By introducing hidden nodes, the proposed network can be trained to store patterns and has increased memory capacity. Training to be an associative memory, simulation results show that the associative memory performs better than a classical Hopfield network by being able to perform better memory recall when the input is noisy.

Keywords: Associative memory, Hopfield network, Lyapunov function, Restricted Hopfield network.

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Authors: Wen-Yuh Jywe, Bor-Jeng Lin, Jing-Chung Shen, Jeng-Dao Lee, Hsueh-Liang Huang, Tung-Hsien Hsieh

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In this study, a simple 2-D measurement system based on optical design was developed to measure the motion errors of the linear guideway. Compared with the transitional methods about the linear guideway for measuring the motion errors, our proposed 2-D optical measurement system can simultaneously measure horizontal and vertical running straightness errors for the linear guideway.

The performance of the 2-D optical measurement system is verified by experimental results. The standard deviation of the 2-D optical measurement system is about 0.4μm in the measurement range of 100 mm. The maximum measuring speed of the proposed automatic measurement instrument is 1 m/sec.

Keywords: 2-D measurement, linear guideway, motion errors, running straightness.

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Authors: Serge B. Provost, Min Jiang

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The density estimates considered in this paper comprise a base density and an adjustment component consisting of a linear combination of orthogonal polynomials. It is shown that, in the context of density approximation, the coefficients of the linear combination can be determined either from a moment-matching technique or a weighted least-squares approach. A kernel representation of the corresponding density estimates is obtained. Additionally, two refinements of the Kronmal-Tarter stopping criterion are proposed for determining the degree of the polynomial adjustment. By way of illustration, the density estimation methodology advocated herein is applied to two data sets.

Keywords: kernel density estimation, orthogonal polynomials, moment-based methodologies, density approximation.

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Authors: Hector Barrios-Piña, Georgia García-Arellano, Salvador García-Rodríguez, Gerardo Bocanegra-García, Shashi Kant

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This work shows the methodology of application and the effectiveness of the Flipped Learning technique for Civil Engineering laboratory classes. It was experimented by some of the professors of the Department of Civil Engineering at Tecnológico de Monterrey while teaching their laboratory classes. A total of 28 videos were created. The videos primarily demonstrate instructions of the experimental practices other than the usage of tools and materials. The technique allowed the students to prepare for their classes in advance. A survey was conducted on the participating professors and students (semester of August-December 2019) to quantify the effectiveness of the Flipped Learning technique. The students reported it as an excellent way of improving their learning aptitude, including self-learning whereas, the professors felt it as an efficient technique for optimizing their class session, which also provided an extra slot for class-interaction. A comparison of grades was analyzed between the students of the traditional classes and with Flipped Learning. It did not distinguish the benefits of Flipped Learning. However, the positive responses from the students and the professors provide an impetus for continuing and promoting the Flipped Learning technique in future classes.

Keywords: Flipped learning, laboratory classes, educational innovation, civil engineering, higher education, competences.

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Authors: B. K. Bazylova, Zh. D. Suleimenova

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In modern literary criticism the problem of genre is one of discussion. Genre is a phenomenon, located in the intersection of the synchronous and diachronic processes in the development of literature, and this is due to the complexity of its solutions. It defines the place of contact between literary works and literary process.

Keywords: Literary, criticism, literary portrait.

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Authors: S. da Costa, D. Páez, E. Martínez, A. Torres, M. Beramendi, D. Hermosilla, M. Muratori

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This study examined the association between creative performance, organizational climate and leadership, affectivity, shared flow, and group decision making. The sample consisted of 315 cadets of a military academic unit of South America. Satisfaction with the decision-making process during a creative task was associated with the usefulness and effectiveness of the ideas generated by the teams with a weighted average correlation of r = .18. Organizational emotional climate, positive and innovation leadership were associated with this group decision-making process r = .25, with shared flow, r = .29 and with positive affect felt during the performance of the creative task, r = .12. In a sequential mediational analysis positive organizational leadership styles were significantly associated with decision-making process and trough cohesion with utility and efficacy of the solution of a creative task. Satisfactory decision-making was related to shared flow during the creative task at collective or group level, and positive affect with flow at individual level.This study examined the association between creative performance, organizational climate and leadership, affectivity, shared flow, and group decision making. The sample consisted of 315 cadets of a military academic unit of South America. Satisfaction with the decision-making process during a creative task was associated with the usefulness and effectiveness of the ideas generated by the teams with a weighted average correlation of r = .18. Organizational emotional climate, positive and innovation leadership were associated with this group decision-making process r = .25, with shared flow, r = .29 and with positive affect felt during the performance of the creative task, r = .12. In a sequential mediational analysis positive organizational leadership styles were significantly associated with decision-making process and trough cohesion with utility and efficacy of the solution of a creative task. Satisfactory decision-making was related to shared flow during the creative task at collective or group level, and positive affect with flow at individual level.

Keywords: Creativity, innovation, military, organization, teams.

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Authors: Kozak K, M. Kozak, K. Stapor

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The k-nearest neighbors (knn) is a simple but effective method of classification. In this paper we present an extended version of this technique for chemical compounds used in High Throughput Screening, where the distances of the nearest neighbors can be taken into account. Our algorithm uses kernel weight functions as guidance for the process of defining activity in screening data. Proposed kernel weight function aims to combine properties of graphical structure and molecule descriptors of screening compounds. We apply the modified knn method on several experimental data from biological screens. The experimental results confirm the effectiveness of the proposed method.

Keywords: biological screening, kernel methods, KNN, QSAR

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Authors: Keunseok Cho, Sangbae Jeong, Hyungwook Chang, Minsoo Hahn

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In this paper, a new encoding algorithm of spectral envelope based on NLMS in G.729.1 for VoIP is proposed. In the TDAC part of G.729.1, the spectral envelope and MDCT coefficients extracted in the weighted CELP coding error (lower-band) and the higher-band input signal are encoded. In order to reduce allocation bits for spectral envelope coding, a new quantization algorithm based on NLMS is proposed. Also, reduced bits are used to enhance sound quality. The performance of the proposed algorithm is evaluated by sound quality and bit reduction rates in clean and frame loss conditions.

Keywords: G.729.1, MDCT coefficient, NLMS, spectral envelope.

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Authors: José M. Merigó, Anna M. Gil-Lafuente

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We study the possibility of using geometric operators in the selection of human resources. We develop three new methods that use the ordered weighted geometric (OWG) operator in different indexes used for the selection of human resources. The objective of these models is to manipulate the neutrality of the old methods so the decision maker is able to select human resources according to his particular attitude. In order to develop these models, first a short revision of the OWG operator is developed. Second, we briefly explain the general process for the selection of human resources. Then, we develop the three new indexes. They will use the OWG operator in the Hamming distance, in the adequacy coefficient and in the index of maximum and minimum level. Finally, an illustrative example about the new approach is given.

Keywords: OWG operator, decision making, human resources, Hamming distance.

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Authors: Ghada Salem, Nihal Kabel

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Objective: This in vitro study was carried out to assess the microleakage properties of nano-filled glass ionomer in comparison to resin-reinforced glass ionomers. Material and Methods: 40 deciduous molar teeth were included in this study. Class-II cavity was prepared in a standard form for all the specimens. The teeth were randomly distributed into two groups (20 per group) according to the restorative material used either nano-glass ionomer or Photac Fill glass ionomer restoration. All specimens were thermocycled for 1000 cycles between 5 and 55 °C. After that, the teeth were immersed in 2% methylene blue dye then sectioned and evaluated under a stereomicroscope. Microleakage was assessed using linear dye penetration and on a scale from zero to five. Results: Two way ANOVA test revealed a statistically significant lower degree of microleakage in both occlusal and gingival restorations (0.4±0.2), (0.9±0.1) for nano-filled glass ionomer group in comparison to resin modified glass ionomer (2.3±0.7), (2.4±0.5). No statistical difference was found between gingival and occlusal leakage regarding the effect of the measured site. Conclusion: Nano-filled glass ionomer shows superior sealing ability which enables this type of restoration to be used in minimum invasive treatment.

Keywords: Microleakage, nano-ionomer, resin-reinforced glass ionomer, proximal cavity preparation.

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Authors: Farhad Kolahan, Mahdi Abachizadeh

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In this paper, a simulated annealing algorithm has been developed to optimize machining parameters in turning operation on cylindrical workpieces. The turning operation usually includes several passes of rough machining and a final pass of finishing. Seven different constraints are considered in a non-linear model where the goal is to achieve minimum total cost. The weighted total cost consists of machining cost, tool cost and tool replacement cost. The computational results clearly show that the proposed optimization procedure has considerably improved total operation cost by optimally determining machining parameters.

Keywords: Optimization, Simulated Annealing, Machining Parameters, Turning Operation.

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Authors: Jiaji Zhou, Le Liang, Long Chen

Abstract:

Geographic Profiling has successfully assisted investigations for serial crimes. Considering the multi-cluster feature of serial criminal spots, we propose a Multi-point Centrography model as a natural extension of Single-point Centrography for geographic profiling. K-means clustering is first performed on the data samples and then Single-point Centrography is adopted to derive a probability distribution on each cluster. Finally, a weighted combinations of each distribution is formed to make next-crime spot prediction. Experimental study on real cases demonstrates the effectiveness of our proposed model.

Keywords: Geographic profiling, Centrography model, K-means algorithm

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Authors: Mohammad A. Bani-Khaled

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In this work we use the Discrete Proper Orthogonal Decomposition transform to characterize the properties of coupled dynamics in thin-walled beams by exploiting numerical simulations obtained from finite element simulations. The outcomes of the will improve our understanding of the linear and nonlinear coupled behavior of thin-walled beams structures. Thin-walled beams have widespread usage in modern engineering application in both large scale structures (aeronautical structures), as well as in nano-structures (nano-tubes). Therefore, detailed knowledge in regard to the properties of coupled vibrations and buckling in these structures are of great interest in the research community. Due to the geometric complexity in the overall structure and in particular in the cross-sections it is necessary to involve computational mechanics to numerically simulate the dynamics. In using numerical computational techniques, it is not necessary to over simplify a model in order to solve the equations of motions. Computational dynamics methods produce databases of controlled resolution in time and space. These numerical databases contain information on the properties of the coupled dynamics. In order to extract the system dynamic properties and strength of coupling among the various fields of the motion, processing techniques are required. Time- Proper Orthogonal Decomposition transform is a powerful tool for processing databases for the dynamics. It will be used to study the coupled dynamics of thin-walled basic structures. These structures are ideal to form a basis for a systematic study of coupled dynamics in structures of complex geometry.

Keywords: Coupled dynamics, geometric complexity, Proper Orthogonal Decomposition (POD), thin walled beams.

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Authors: Inna R. Edara, Haw-Lin Wu

Abstract:

Positive psychology investigates human strengths and virtues and promotes well-being. Relying on this assumption, positive interventions have been continuously designed to build pleasure and happiness, joy and contentment, engagement and meaning, hope and optimism, satisfaction and gratitude, spirituality, and various other positive measures of well-being. In line with this model of positive psychology and interventions, this study investigated certain measures of well-being in a group of 45 students enrolled in an 18-week positive psychology course and simultaneously engaged in service-oriented interventions that they chose for themselves based on the course content and individual interests. Students’ well-being was measured at the beginning and end of the course. The well-being indicators included positive automatic thoughts, optimism and hope, satisfaction with life, and spirituality. A paired-samples t-test conducted to evaluate the impact of class content and service-oriented interventions on students’ scores of well-being indicators indicated statistically significant increase from pre-class to post-class scores. There were also significant gender differences in post-course well-being scores, with females having higher levels of well-being than males. A two-way between groups analysis of variance indicated a significant interaction effect of age by gender on the post-course well-being scores, with females in the age group of 56-65 having the highest scores of well-being in comparison to the males in the same age group. Regression analyses indicated that positive automatic thought significantly predicted hope and satisfaction with life in the pre-course analysis. In the post-course regression analysis, spiritual transcendence made a significant contribution to optimism, and positive automatic thought made a significant contribution to both hope and satisfaction with life. Finally, a significant test between pre-course and post-course regression coefficients indicated that the regression coefficients at pre-course were significantly different from post-course coefficients, suggesting that the positive psychology course and the interventions were helpful in raising the levels of well-being. The overall results suggest a substantial increase in the participants’ well-being scores after engaging in the positive-oriented interventions, implying a need for designing more positive interventions in education to promote well-being.  

Keywords: Hope, optimism, positive automatic thoughts, satisfaction with life, spirituality, well-being.

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Authors: Louiza C. Duncker, Duarte Gonçalves

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Wildlife crime is a complex problem with many interconnected facets, which are generally responded to in parts or fragments in efforts to “break down” the complexity into manageable components. However, fragmentation increases complexity as coherence and cooperation become diluted. A whole-of-society approach has been developed towards finding a common goal and integrated approach to preventing wildlife crime. As part of this development, research was conducted in rural communities adjacent to conservation areas in South Africa to define and comprehend the challenges faced by them, and to understand their perceptions of wildlife crime. The results of the research showed that the perceptions of community members varied - most were in favor of conservation and of protecting rhinos, only if they derive adequate benefit from it. Regardless of gender, income level, education level, or access to services, conservation was perceived to be good and bad by the same people. Even though people in the communities are poor, a willingness to stop rhino poaching does exist amongst them, but their perception of parks not caring about people triggered an attitude of not being willing to stop, prevent or report poaching. Understanding the nuances, the history, the interests and values of community members, and the drivers behind poaching mind-sets (intrinsic or driven by transnational organized crime) is imperative to create sustainable and resilient communities on multiple levels that make a substantial positive impact on people’s lives, but also conserve wildlife for posterity.

Keywords: Conservation, community perceptions, wildlife crime, rhino poaching, interest and value creation, whole-of-society approach.

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Authors: Yuzhi Cai

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In this paper, we discuss a Bayesian approach to quantile autoregressive (QAR) time series model estimation and forecasting. Together with a combining forecasts technique, we then predict USD to GBP currency exchange rates. Combined forecasts contain all the information captured by the fitted QAR models at different quantile levels and are therefore better than those obtained from individual models. Our results show that an unequally weighted combining method performs better than other forecasting methodology. We found that a median AR model can perform well in point forecasting when the predictive density functions are symmetric. However, in practice, using the median AR model alone may involve the loss of information about the data captured by other QAR models. We recommend that combined forecasts should be used whenever possible.

Keywords: Exchange rate, quantile regression, combining forecasts.

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