Search results for: Coincidence degree
Commenced in January 2007
Frequency: Monthly
Edition: International
Paper Count: 930

Search results for: Coincidence degree

390 Estimation of the Upper Tail Dependence Coefficient for Insurance Loss Data Using an Empirical Copula-Based Approach

Authors: Adrian O’Hagan, Robert McLoughlin

Abstract:

Considerable focus in the world of insurance risk quantification is placed on modeling loss values from lines of business (LOBs) that possess upper tail dependence. Copulas such as the Joe, Gumbel and Student-t copula may be used for this purpose. The copula structure imparts a desired level of tail dependence on the joint distribution of claims from the different LOBs. Alternatively, practitioners may possess historical or simulated data that already exhibit upper tail dependence, through the impact of catastrophe events such as hurricanes or earthquakes. In these circumstances, it is not desirable to induce additional upper tail dependence when modeling the joint distribution of the loss values from the individual LOBs. Instead, it is of interest to accurately assess the degree of tail dependence already present in the data. The empirical copula and its associated upper tail dependence coefficient are presented in this paper as robust, efficient means of achieving this goal.

Keywords: Empirical copula, extreme events, insurance loss reserving, upper tail dependence coefficient.

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389 Molecular Evolutionary Analysis of Yeast Protein Interaction Network

Authors: Soichi Ogishima, Takeshi Hase, So Nakagawa, Yasuhiro Suzuki, Hiroshi Tanaka

Abstract:

To understand life as biological system, evolutionary understanding is indispensable. Protein interactions data are rapidly accumulating and are suitable for system-level evolutionary analysis. We have analyzed yeast protein interaction network by both mathematical and biological approaches. In this poster presentation, we inferred the evolutionary birth periods of yeast proteins by reconstructing phylogenetic profile. It has been thought that hub proteins that have high connection degree are evolutionary old. But our analysis showed that hub proteins are entirely evolutionary new. We also examined evolutionary processes of protein complexes. It showed that member proteins of complexes were tend to have appeared in the same evolutionary period. Our results suggested that protein interaction network evolved by modules that form the functional unit. We also reconstructed standardized phylogenetic trees and calculated evolutionary rates of yeast proteins. It showed that there is no obvious correlation between evolutionary rates and connection degrees of yeast proteins.

Keywords: Protein interaction network, evolution, modularity, evolutionary rate, connection degrees.

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388 Fragility Analysis of Weir Structure Subjected to Flooding Water Damage

Authors: Oh Hyeon Jeon, WooYoung Jung

Abstract:

In this study, seepage analysis was performed by the level difference between upstream and downstream of weir structure for safety evaluation of weir structure against flooding. Monte Carlo Simulation method was employed by considering the probability distribution of the adjacent ground parameter, i.e., permeability coefficient of weir structure. Moreover, by using a commercially available finite element program (ABAQUS), modeling of the weir structure is carried out. Based on this model, the characteristic of water seepage during flooding was determined at each water level with consideration of the uncertainty of their corresponding permeability coefficient. Subsequently, fragility function could be constructed based on this response from numerical analysis; this fragility function results could be used to determine the weakness of weir structure subjected to flooding disaster. They can also be used as a reference data that can comprehensively predict the probability of failur,e and the degree of damage of a weir structure.

Keywords: Weir structure, seepage, flood disaster fragility, probabilistic risk assessment, Monte-Carlo Simulation, permeability coefficient.

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387 Intermolecular Dynamics between Alcohols and Fatty Acid Ester Solvents

Authors: Jacques J. Scheepers, Edison Muzenda

Abstract:

This work focused on the interactions which occur between ester solvents and alcohol solutes. The alcohols selected ranged from the simplest alcohol (methanol) to C10-alcohols, and solubility predictions in the form of infinite dilution activity coefficients were made using the Modified UNIFAC Dortmund group contribution model. The model computation was set up on a Microsoft Excel spreadsheet specifically designed for this purpose. It was found that alcohol/ ester interactions yielded an increase in activity coefficients (i.e. became less soluble) with an increase in the size of the ester solvent molecule. Furthermore, activity coefficients decreased with an increase in the size of the alcohol solute. The activity coefficients also decreased with an increase in the degree of unsaturation of the ester hydrocarbon tail. Tertiary alcohols yielded lower activity coefficients than primary alcohols. Finally, cyclic alcohols yielded higher activity coefficients than straight-chain alcohols until a point is reached where the trend is reversed, referred to as the ‘crossover’ point.

Keywords: Activity coefficients, alcohols, esters, solubility, van der Waals, UNIFAC.

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386 Bioinformatics and Molecular Biological Characterization of a Hypothetical Protein SAV1226 as a Potential Drug Target for Methicillin/Vancomycin- Staphylococcus aureus Infections

Authors: Nichole Haag, Kimberly Velk, Tyler McCune, Chun Wu

Abstract:

Methicillin/multiple-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA) are infectious bacteria that are resistant to common antibiotics. A previous in silico study in our group has identified a hypothetical protein SAV1226 as one of the potential drug targets. In this study, we reported the bioinformatics characterization, as well as cloning, expression, purification and kinetic assays of hypothetical protein SAV1226 from methicillin/vancomycin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus Mu50 strain. MALDI-TOF/MS analysis revealed a low degree of structural similarity with known proteins. Kinetic assays demonstrated that hypothetical protein SAV1226 is neither a domain of an ATP dependent dihydroxyacetone kinase nor of a phosphotransferase system (PTS) dihydroxyacetone kinase, suggesting that the function of hypothetical protein SAV1226 might be misannotated on public databases such as UniProt and InterProScan 5.

Keywords: Dihydroxyacetone kinase, essential genes, Methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus, drug target.

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385 The Change in Management Accounting from an Institutional and Contingency Perspective: A Case Study for a Romanian Company

Authors: Gabriel Jinga, Madalina Dumitru

Abstract:

The objective of this paper is to present the process of change in management accounting in Romania, a former communist country from Eastern Europe. In order to explain this process, we used the contingency and institutional theories. We focused on the following directions: the presentation of the scientific context and motivation of this research and the case study. We presented the state of the art in the process of change in the management accounting from the international and national perspective. We also described the evolution of management accounting in Romania in the context of economic and political changes. An important moment was the fall of communism in 1989. This represents a starting point for a new economic environment and for new management accounting. Accordingly, we developed a case study which presented this evolution. The conclusion of our research was that the changes in the management accounting system of the company analysed occurred in the same time with the institutionalisation of some elements (e.g. degree of competition, training and competencies in management accounting). The management accounting system was modelled by the contingencies specific to this company (e.g. environment, industry, strategy).

Keywords: Management accounting, change, Romania, contingency and institutional theory.

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384 From Traditional to Applied: A Case Study in Industrial Engineering Curriculum

Authors: Hani Shafeek, Mohammed Aman, Muhammad Marsudi

Abstract:

Applied industrial engineering is concerned with imparting employable skills to improve the productivity for current situation of products and services. The purpose of this case study is to present the results of an initial research study conducted to identify the desired professional characteristics of an industrial engineer with an undergraduate degree and the emerging topic areas that should be incorporated into the curriculum to prepare industrial engineering (IE) graduates for the future workforce. Conclusions and recommendations for applied industrial engineering syllabus have been gathered and reported below. A two-pronged approach was taken which included a method of benchmarking by comparing the applied industrial engineering curricula of various universities and an industry survey to identify job market requirements. This methodology produced an analysis of the changing nature of industrial engineering from learning to practical education. A curriculum study for engineering is a relatively unexplored area of research in the Middle East, much less for applied industrial engineering. This work is an effort to bridge the gap between theoretical study in the classroom and the real world work applications in the industrial and service sectors.

Keywords: Applied industrial engineering, Faculty of Engineering, Industrial Engineering Curriculum, Syllabus.

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383 Innovation Knowledge and Capability, Work Efficiency of Accountants and the Success of SME Registered in Nakorn Pathom Province

Authors: Autjira Songan, Supattra Kanchanopast

Abstract:

The objectives of this research were to compare the success of SME registered in Nakorn Pathom Province divided in personal data also to study the relations between the innovation knowledge and capability and the success of SME registered in Nakorn Pathom Province and to study the relations between the work efficiency and the success of SME registered in Nakorn Pathom Province. A questionnaire was utilized as a tool to collect data. Statistics utilized in this research included frequency, percentage, mean, standard deviation, and multiple regression analysis. Data were analyzed by using Statistical Package for the Social Sciences.The findings revealed that the majority of respondents were male with the age between 25-34 years old, hold undergraduate degree, married and stay together. The average income of respondents was between 10,001-20,000 baht. It also found that in terms of innovation knowledge and capability, there were two variables had an influence on the amount of innovation knowledge and capability, innovation evaluation which were physical characteristic and innovation process.

Keywords: ccountants, Innovation, Knowledge, Work Efficiency.

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382 A Generalized Sparse Bayesian Learning Algorithm for Near-Field Synthetic Aperture Radar Imaging: By Exploiting Impropriety and Noncircularity

Authors: Pan Long, Bi Dongjie, Li Xifeng, Xie Yongle

Abstract:

The near-field synthetic aperture radar (SAR) imaging is an advanced nondestructive testing and evaluation (NDT&E) technique. This paper investigates the complex-valued signal processing related to the near-field SAR imaging system, where the measurement data turns out to be noncircular and improper, meaning that the complex-valued data is correlated to its complex conjugate. Furthermore, we discover that the degree of impropriety of the measurement data and that of the target image can be highly correlated in near-field SAR imaging. Based on these observations, A modified generalized sparse Bayesian learning algorithm is proposed, taking impropriety and noncircularity into account. Numerical results show that the proposed algorithm provides performance gain, with the help of noncircular assumption on the signals.

Keywords: Complex-valued signal processing, synthetic aperture radar (SAR), 2-D radar imaging, compressive sensing, Sparse Bayesian learning.

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381 Studying the Theoretical and Laboratory Design of a Concrete Frame and Optimizing Its Design for Impact and Earthquake Resistance

Authors: Mehrdad Azimzadeh, Seyed Mohammadreza Jabbari, Mohammadreza Hosseinzadeh Alherd

Abstract:

This paper includes experimental results and analytical studies about increasing resistance of single-span reinforced concreted frames against impact factor and their modeling according to optimization methods and optimizing the behavior of these frames under impact loads. During this study, about 30 designs for different frames were modeled and made using specialized software like ANSYS and Sap and their behavior were examined under variable impacts. Then suitable strategies were offered for frames in terms of concrete mixing in order to optimize frame modeling. To reduce the weight of the frames, we had to use fine-grained stones. After designing about eight types of frames for each type of frames, three samples were designed with the aim of controlling the impact strength parameters, and a good shape of the frame was created for the impact resistance, which was a solid frame with muscular legs, and as a bond away from each other as much as possible with a 3 degree gradient in the upper part of the beam.

Keywords: Optimization, reinforced concrete, single-span frames, optimization methods of impact load.

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380 Mining Image Features in an Automatic Two-Dimensional Shape Recognition System

Authors: R. A. Salam, M.A. Rodrigues

Abstract:

The number of features required to represent an image can be very huge. Using all available features to recognize objects can suffer from curse dimensionality. Feature selection and extraction is the pre-processing step of image mining. Main issues in analyzing images is the effective identification of features and another one is extracting them. The mining problem that has been focused is the grouping of features for different shapes. Experiments have been conducted by using shape outline as the features. Shape outline readings are put through normalization and dimensionality reduction process using an eigenvector based method to produce a new set of readings. After this pre-processing step data will be grouped through their shapes. Through statistical analysis, these readings together with peak measures a robust classification and recognition process is achieved. Tests showed that the suggested methods are able to automatically recognize objects through their shapes. Finally, experiments also demonstrate the system invariance to rotation, translation, scale, reflection and to a small degree of distortion.

Keywords: Image mining, feature selection, shape recognition, peak measures.

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379 The Influence of Thermic Plastic Films on Vegetative and Reproductive Growth of Iceberg Lettuce ‘Dublin’

Authors: Wael M. Semida, P. Hadley, W. Sobeih, N. A. El-Sawah, M. A. S. Barakat

Abstract:

Photoselective plastic films with thermic properties are now available so that greenhouses clad with such plastics exhibit a higher degree of “Greenhouse Effect” with a consequent increase in night time temperature. In this study, we investigate the potential benefits of a range of thermic plastic films used as greenhouse cover materials on the vegetative and reproductive growth and development of Iceberg lettuce (Lactuca sativa L). Transplants were grown under thermic films and destructively harvested 4, 5, and 6 weeks after transplanting. Thermic films can increase night temperatures up to 2 ⁰C reducing the wide fluctuation in greenhouse temperature during winter compared to the standard commercial film and consequently increased the yield (leaf number, fresh weight, and dry weight) of lettuce plants. Lettuce plants grown under Clear film respond to cold stress by the accumulation of secondary products (phenolics, and flavonoids).

Keywords: Photoselective plastic films, thermic films, secondary metabolites.

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378 Applying Hybrid Graph Drawing and Clustering Methods on Stock Investment Analysis

Authors: Mouataz Zreika, Maria Estela Varua

Abstract:

Stock investment decisions are often made based on current events of the global economy and the analysis of historical data. Conversely, visual representation could assist investors’ gain deeper understanding and better insight on stock market trends more efficiently. The trend analysis is based on long-term data collection. The study adopts a hybrid method that combines the Clustering algorithm and Force-directed algorithm to overcome the scalability problem when visualizing large data. This method exemplifies the potential relationships between each stock, as well as determining the degree of strength and connectivity, which will provide investors another understanding of the stock relationship for reference. Information derived from visualization will also help them make an informed decision. The results of the experiments show that the proposed method is able to produced visualized data aesthetically by providing clearer views for connectivity and edge weights.

Keywords: Clustering, force-directed, graph drawing, stock investment analysis.

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377 Analysis on the Decision-Making Model of Private Sector Companies in PPP Projects

Authors: Xueqin Shan, Chuanming Wu, Wenhua Hou, Xiaosu Ye

Abstract:

Successful public-private-partnership (PPP) implementation can not be achieved without the active participation of private sector companies. This paper examines the decision-making of private sector companies in public works delivered by the PPP model on the basis of social responsibility theory. It proposes that private sector companies should indentify objectives of entering into PPP projects, and shoulder relevant social responsibilities, while a minimum return should also be guaranteed in their favor, so as to compensate for their assumed risk and support them to take on responsibilities in the future. The paper also gives a calculation regarding the appropriate scale and reasonable degree of private sector involvement in PPP projects through the cost-benefit analysis in a specific case study, with the purpose to guide the private sector companies to create a cooperation environment resembling “symbiosis" and facilitate the smooth implementation of public works delivered by the PPP model.

Keywords: Social Responsibility Theory, Cost-benefit Analysis, PPP Projects, Private Sector Companies, Decision-making Modell

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376 A Study of Development to Take for the Enterprise of the Critical Success Factors in the Taiwan Szuchung Creek Hot Springs

Authors: Jui-Liang Hsu

Abstract:

The purpose of this study was to investigate the impact of the development of Szuchung Creek take for the cause of the critical success factors, This research is to use the depth interviews, document analysis and Modified-Delphi technique survey of nine depth interviews with experts and 14 experts of Modified-Delphi technique questionnaire and inviting as the research object, Szuchung Creek Hot Springs for the scope of the study. The results show, Szuchung Creek Hot Springs development take for career success factors for the following reasons: 1. Government. 2. Opportunities. 3. Factors of production. 4. Demand conditions. 5. Corporate structure and the degree of competition. 6. Related and supporting industries. Furthermore, Szuchung Creek hot springs, itself already has a number of critical success factors. Contingent less than or inadequacies by Szuchung Creek take for the enterprise development to take for the cause of the critical success factors as the basis for correcting, planning out for local use improvement strategies to achieve the objective of sustainable management.

Keywords: Hot spring industry, Critical Success Fators, Szuchung Creek, Take for the enterprise, Modified-Delphi technique, Hot Spring Areas.

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375 Quantifying the Stability of Software Systems via Simulation in Dependency Networks

Authors: Weifeng Pan

Abstract:

The stability of a software system is one of the most important quality attributes affecting the maintenance effort. Many techniques have been proposed to support the analysis of software stability at the architecture, file, and class level of software systems, but little effort has been made for that at the feature (i.e., method and attribute) level. And the assumptions the existing techniques based on always do not meet the practice to a certain degree. Considering that, in this paper, we present a novel metric, Stability of Software (SoS), to measure the stability of object-oriented software systems by software change propagation analysis using a simulation way in software dependency networks at feature level. The approach is evaluated by case studies on eight open source Java programs using different software structures (one employs design patterns versus one does not) for the same object-oriented program. The results of the case studies validate the effectiveness of the proposed metric. The approach has been fully automated by a tool written in Java.

Keywords: Software stability, change propagation, design pattern, software maintenance, object-oriented (OO) software.

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374 When Explanations “Cause“ Error: A Look at Representations and Compressions

Authors: Michael Lissack

Abstract:

We depend upon explanation in order to “make sense" out of our world. And, making sense is all the more important when dealing with change. But, what happens if our explanations are wrong? This question is examined with respect to two types of explanatory model. Models based on labels and categories we shall refer to as “representations." More complex models involving stories, multiple algorithms, rules of thumb, questions, ambiguity we shall refer to as “compressions." Both compressions and representations are reductions. But representations are far more reductive than compressions. Representations can be treated as a set of defined meanings – coherence with regard to a representation is the degree of fidelity between the item in question and the definition of the representation, of the label. By contrast, compressions contain enough degrees of freedom and ambiguity to allow us to make internal predictions so that we may determine our potential actions in the possibility space. Compressions are explanatory via mechanism. Representations are explanatory via category. Managers are often confusing their evocation of a representation (category inclusion) as the creation of a context of compression (description of mechanism). When this type of explanatory error occurs, more errors follow. In the drive for efficiency such substitutions are all too often proclaimed – at the manager-s peril..

Keywords: Coherence, Emergence, Reduction, Model

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373 Graded Orientation of the Linear Polymers

Authors: Levan Nadareishvili, Roland Bakuradze, Barbara Kilosanidze, Nona Topuridze, Liana Sharashidze, Ineza Pavlenishvili

Abstract:

Some regularities of formation of a new structural state of the thermoplastic polymers - gradually oriented (stretched) state (GOS) are discussed. Transition into GOS is realized by the graded oriented stretching - by action of inhomogeneous mechanical field on the isotropic linear polymers or by zone stretching that is implemented on a standard tensile-testing machine with using a specially designed zone stretching device (ZSD). Both technical approaches (especially zone stretching method) allows to manage the such quantitative parameters of gradually oriented polymers as a range of change in relative elongation/orientation degree, length of this change and profile (linear, hyperbolic, parabolic, logarithmic, etc.). The possibility of obtaining functionally graded materials (FGMs) by graded orientation method is briefly discussed. Uniaxial graded stretching method should be considered as an effective technological solution to create polymer materials with a predetermined gradient of physical properties.

Keywords: Controlled graded stretching, gradually oriented state, linear polymers, zone stretching device.

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372 Methodology of Islamic Economics: Scope and Prospects

Authors: Ahmad Abdulkadir Ibrahim

Abstract:

Observation of the methodology of Islamic economics laid down for the methods and instruments of analysis and even some of its basic assumptions in the modern world; is a matter that is of paramount importance. There is a need to examine the implications of different suggested definitions of Islamic economics, exploring its scope and attempting to outline its methodology. This paper attempts to deal with the definition of Islamic economics, its methodology, and its scope. It will outline the main methodological problem by addressing the question of whether Islamic economics calls for a methodology of its own or as an expanded economics. It also aims at drawing the attention of economists in the modern world to the obligation and consideration of the methodology of Islamic economics. The methodology adopted in this research is library research through the consultation of relevant literature, which focuses on the thematic study of the subject matter. This is followed by an analysis and discussion of the contents of the materials used. It is concluded that there is a certain degree of inconsistency in the way assumptions are incorporated that perhaps are alien to Islamic economics. The paper also observed that there is a difference between Islamic economists and other (conventional) economists in the profession. An important conclusion is that Islamic economists need to rethink what economics is all about and whether we really have to create an alternative to economics in the form of Islamic economics or simply have an Islamic perspective of the same discipline.

Keywords: Islamic economics, conventional economics, Muslim economists, modern economy.

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371 Love and Money: Societal Attitudes Toward Income Disparities in Age-Gap Relationships

Authors: Victoria S. Scarratt

Abstract:

Couples involved in age-gap relationships generally evoke negative stereotypes, opinions, and social disapproval. This research seeks to examine whether financial disparities in age-discrepant relationships cause negative attitudes in study participants. It was hypothesized that an age-gap couple (29-year difference) would receive a greater degree of societal disapproval when the couple also had a large salary-gap compared to a similarly aged couple (1-year difference) with a salary-gap. Additionally, there would be no significant difference between age-gap couples without a salary-gap compared to a similarly aged couple without a salary gap. To test the hypothesis, participants were given one of four scenarios regarding a couple in a romantic relationship. Then they were asked to respond to nine Likert scale questions. Results indicated that participants perceived age-gap relationships with a salary disparity to be less equitable in regard to a power imbalance between the couple and the financial and general gain that one partner will receive. A significant interaction was also detected for evoking feelings of disgust in participants, and how morally correct it is for the couple to continue their relationship.

Keywords: Age-gap relationships, financial discrepancies, love, relationships, societal stigmas.

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370 A New Hybrid K-Mean-Quick Reduct Algorithm for Gene Selection

Authors: E. N. Sathishkumar, K. Thangavel, T. Chandrasekhar

Abstract:

Feature selection is a process to select features which are more informative. It is one of the important steps in knowledge discovery. The problem is that all genes are not important in gene expression data. Some of the genes may be redundant, and others may be irrelevant and noisy. Here a novel approach is proposed Hybrid K-Mean-Quick Reduct (KMQR) algorithm for gene selection from gene expression data. In this study, the entire dataset is divided into clusters by applying K-Means algorithm. Each cluster contains similar genes. The high class discriminated genes has been selected based on their degree of dependence by applying Quick Reduct algorithm to all the clusters. Average Correlation Value (ACV) is calculated for the high class discriminated genes. The clusters which have the ACV value as 1 is determined as significant clusters, whose classification accuracy will be equal or high when comparing to the accuracy of the entire dataset. The proposed algorithm is evaluated using WEKA classifiers and compared. The proposed work shows that the high classification accuracy.

Keywords: Clustering, Gene Selection, K-Mean-Quick Reduct, Rough Sets.

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369 A Fuzzy Satisfactory Optimization Method Based on Stress Analysis for a Hybrid Composite Flywheel

Authors: Liping Yang, Curran Crawford, Jr. Ren, Zhengyi Ren

Abstract:

Considering the cost evaluation and the stress analysis, a fuzzy satisfactory optimization (FSO) method has been developed for a hybrid composite flywheel. To evaluate the cost, the cost coefficients of the flywheel components are obtained through calculating the weighted sum of the scores of the material manufacturability, the structure character, and the material price. To express the satisfactory degree of the energy, the cost, and the mass, the satisfactory functions are proposed by using the decline function and introducing a satisfactory coefficient. To imply the different significance of the objectives, the object weight coefficients are defined. Based on the stress analysis of composite material, the circumferential and radial stresses are considered into the optimization formulation. The simulations of the FSO method with different weight coefficients and storage energy density optimization (SEDO) method of a flywheel are contrasted. The analysis results show that the FSO method can satisfy different requirements of the designer and the FSO method with suitable weight coefficients can replace the SEDO method.

Keywords: Flywheel energy storage, fuzzy, optimization, stress analysis.

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368 PM10 Prediction and Forecasting Using CART: A Case Study for Pleven, Bulgaria

Authors: Snezhana G. Gocheva-Ilieva, Maya P. Stoimenova

Abstract:

Ambient air pollution with fine particulate matter (PM10) is a systematic permanent problem in many countries around the world. The accumulation of a large number of measurements of both the PM10 concentrations and the accompanying atmospheric factors allow for their statistical modeling to detect dependencies and forecast future pollution. This study applies the classification and regression trees (CART) method for building and analyzing PM10 models. In the empirical study, average daily air data for the city of Pleven, Bulgaria for a period of 5 years are used. Predictors in the models are seven meteorological variables, time variables, as well as lagged PM10 variables and some lagged meteorological variables, delayed by 1 or 2 days with respect to the initial time series, respectively. The degree of influence of the predictors in the models is determined. The selected best CART models are used to forecast future PM10 concentrations for two days ahead after the last date in the modeling procedure and show very accurate results.

Keywords: Cross-validation, decision tree, lagged variables, short-term forecasting.

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367 Evaluation of New Product Development Projects using Artificial Intelligence and Fuzzy Logic

Authors: Orhan Feyzioğlu, Gülçin Büyüközkan

Abstract:

As a vital activity for companies, new product development (NPD) is also a very risky process due to the high uncertainty degree encountered at every development stage and the inevitable dependence on how previous steps are successfully accomplished. Hence, there is an apparent need to evaluate new product initiatives systematically and make accurate decisions under uncertainty. Another major concern is the time pressure to launch a significant number of new products to preserve and increase the competitive power of the company. In this work, we propose an integrated decision-making framework based on neural networks and fuzzy logic to make appropriate decisions and accelerate the evaluation process. We are especially interested in the two initial stages where new product ideas are selected (go/no go decision) and the implementation order of the corresponding projects are determined. We show that this two-staged intelligent approach allows practitioners to roughly and quickly separate good and bad product ideas by making use of previous experiences, and then, analyze a more shortened list rigorously.

Keywords: Decision Making, Neural Networks, Fuzzy Theory and Systems, Choquet Integral, New Product Development.

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366 Analysis of the Interference from Risk-Determining Factors of Cooperative and Conventional Construction Contracts

Authors: E. Harrer, M. Mauerhofer, T. Werginz

Abstract:

As a result of intensive competition, the building sector is suffering from a high degree of rivalry. Furthermore, there can be observed an unbalanced distribution of project risks. Clients are aimed to shift their own risks into the sphere of the constructors or planners. The consequence of this is that the number of conflicts between the involved parties is inordinately high or even increasing; an alternative approach to counter on that developments are cooperative project forms in the construction sector. This research compares conventional contract models and models with partnering agreements to examine the influence on project risks by an early integration of the involved parties. The goal is to show up deviations in different project stages from the design phase to the project transfer phase. These deviations are evaluated by a survey of experts from the three spheres: clients, contractors and planners. By rating the influence of the participants on specific risk factors it is possible to identify factors which are relevant for a smooth project execution.

Keywords: Collaborative work, construction industry, contract-models, influence, partnering, project management, risk.

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365 Information Gain Ratio Based Clustering for Investigation of Environmental Parameters Effects on Human Mental Performance

Authors: H. Mehdi, Kh. S. Karimov, A. A. Kavokin

Abstract:

Methods of clustering which were developed in the data mining theory can be successfully applied to the investigation of different kinds of dependencies between the conditions of environment and human activities. It is known, that environmental parameters such as temperature, relative humidity, atmospheric pressure and illumination have significant effects on the human mental performance. To investigate these parameters effect, data mining technique of clustering using entropy and Information Gain Ratio (IGR) K(Y/X) = (H(X)–H(Y/X))/H(Y) is used, where H(Y)=-ΣPi ln(Pi). This technique allows adjusting the boundaries of clusters. It is shown that the information gain ratio (IGR) grows monotonically and simultaneously with degree of connectivity between two variables. This approach has some preferences if compared, for example, with correlation analysis due to relatively smaller sensitivity to shape of functional dependencies. Variant of an algorithm to implement the proposed method with some analysis of above problem of environmental effects is also presented. It was shown that proposed method converges with finite number of steps.

Keywords: Clustering, Correlation analysis, EnvironmentalParameters, Information Gain Ratio, Mental Performance.

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364 Virtual Reality Models used on the Visualization of Construction Activities in Civil Engineering Education

Authors: Alcínia Z. Sampaio, Pedro G. Henriques

Abstract:

Three-dimensional geometric models have been used to present architectural and engineering works, showing their final configuration. When the clarification of a detail or the constitution of a construction step in needed, these models are not appropriate. They do not allow the observation of the construction progress of a building. Models that could present dynamically changes of the building geometry are a good support to the elaboration of projects. Techniques of geometric modeling and virtual reality were used to obtain models that could visually simulate the construction activity. The applications explain the construction work of a cavity wall and a bridge. These models allow the visualization of the physical progression of the work following a planned construction sequence, the observation of details of the form of every component of the works and support the study of the type and method of operation of the equipment applied in the construction. These models presented distinct advantage as educational aids in first-degree courses in Civil Engineering. The use of Virtual Reality techniques in the development of educational applications brings new perspectives to the teaching of subjects related to the field of civil construction.

Keywords: Education, Engineering, virtual reality, visualsimulation.

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363 Study of Compaction in Hot-Mix Asphalt Using Computer Simulations

Authors: Kasthurirangan Gopalakrishnan, Naga Shashidhar, Xiaoxiong Zhong

Abstract:

During the process of compaction in Hot-Mix Asphalt (HMA) mixtures, the distance between aggregate particles decreases as they come together and eliminate air-voids. By measuring the inter-particle distances in a cut-section of a HMA sample the degree of compaction can be estimated. For this, a calibration curve is generated by computer simulation technique when the gradation and asphalt content of the HMA mixture are known. A two-dimensional cross section of HMA specimen was simulated using the mixture design information (gradation, asphalt content and air-void content). Nearest neighbor distance methods such as Delaunay triangulation were used to study the changes in inter-particle distance and area distribution during the process of compaction in HMA. Such computer simulations would enable making several hundreds of repetitions in a short period of time without the necessity to compact and analyze laboratory specimens in order to obtain good statistics on the parameters defined. The distributions for the statistical parameters based on computer simulations showed similar trends as those of laboratory specimens.

Keywords: Computer simulations, Hot-Mix Asphalt (HMA), inter-particle distance, image analysis, nearest neighbor

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362 The Advantages of Integration for Social Systems – Evidence from the Automobile Industry

Authors: Waldemiro Francisco Sorte Junior

Abstract:

The Japanese integrative approach to social systems can be observed in supply chain management as well as in the relationship between public and private sectors. Both the Lean Production System and the Developmental State Model are characterized by efforts towards the achievement of mutual goals, resulting in initiatives for capacity building which emphasize the system level. In Brazil, although organizations undertake efforts to build capabilities at the individual and organizational levels, the system level is being neglected. Fieldwork data confirmed the findings of other studies in terms of the lack of integration in supply chain management in the Brazilian automobile industry. Moreover, due to the absence of an active role of the Brazilian state in its relationship with the private sector, automakers are not fully exploiting the opportunities in the domestic and regional markets. For promoting a higher level of economic growth as well as to increase the degree of spill-over of technologies and techniques, a more integrative approach is needed.

Keywords: Integration, Lean Production System, DevelopmentalState Model, Brazilian automobile industry.

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361 Application of the Least Squares Method in the Adjustment of Chlorodifluoromethane (HCFC-142b) Regression Models

Authors: L. J. de Bessa Neto, V. S. Filho, J. V. Ferreira Nunes, G. C. Bergamo

Abstract:

There are many situations in which human activities have significant effects on the environment. Damage to the ozone layer is one of them. The objective of this work is to use the Least Squares Method, considering the linear, exponential, logarithmic, power and polynomial models of the second degree, to analyze through the coefficient of determination (R²), which model best fits the behavior of the chlorodifluoromethane (HCFC-142b) in parts per trillion between 1992 and 2018, as well as estimates of future concentrations between 5 and 10 periods, i.e. the concentration of this pollutant in the years 2023 and 2028 in each of the adjustments. A total of 809 observations of the concentration of HCFC-142b in one of the monitoring stations of gases precursors of the deterioration of the ozone layer during the period of time studied were selected and, using these data, the statistical software Excel was used for make the scatter plots of each of the adjustment models. With the development of the present study, it was observed that the logarithmic fit was the model that best fit the data set, since besides having a significant R² its adjusted curve was compatible with the natural trend curve of the phenomenon.

Keywords: Chlorodifluoromethane (HCFC-142b), ozone (O3), least squares method, regression models.

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