Search results for: risk assessment
Commenced in January 2007
Frequency: Monthly
Edition: International
Paper Count: 2191

Search results for: risk assessment

1681 Selection of Intensity Measure in Probabilistic Seismic Risk Assessment of a Turkish Railway Bridge

Authors: M. F. Yilmaz, B. Ö. Çağlayan

Abstract:

Fragility curve is an effective common used tool to determine the earthquake performance of structural and nonstructural components. Also, it is used to determine the nonlinear behavior of bridges. There are many historical bridges in the Turkish railway network; the earthquake performances of these bridges are needed to be investigated. To derive fragility curve Intensity measures (IMs) and Engineering demand parameters (EDP) are needed to be determined. And the relation between IMs and EDP are needed to be derived. In this study, a typical simply supported steel girder riveted railway bridge is studied. Fragility curves of this bridge are derived by two parameters lognormal distribution. Time history analyses are done for selected 60 real earthquake data to determine the relation between IMs and EDP. Moreover, efficiency, practicality, and sufficiency of three different IMs are discussed. PGA, Sa(0.2s) and Sa(1s), the most common used IMs parameters for fragility curve in the literature, are taken into consideration in terms of efficiency, practicality and sufficiency.

Keywords: Railway bridges, earthquake performance, fragility analyses, selection of intensity measures.

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1680 Performance Assessment and Optimization of the After-Sale Networks

Authors: H. Izadbakhsh, M.Hour Ali, A. Amirkhani, A. Montazeri, M. Saberi

Abstract:

The after–sales activities are nowadays acknowledged as a relevant source of revenue, profit and competitive advantage in most manufacturing industries. Top and middle management, therefore, should focus on the definition of a structured business performance measurement system for the after-sales business. The paper aims at filling this gap, and presents an integrated methodology for the after-sales network performance measurement, and provides an empirical application to automotive case companies and their official service network. This is the first study that presents an integrated multivariate approach for total assessment and improvement of after-sale services.

Keywords: Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA), Principal Component Analysis (PCA), Automotive companies, After-sale services.

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1679 Application Reliability Method for Concrete Dams

Authors: Mustapha Kamel Mihoubi, Mohamed Essadik Kerkar

Abstract:

Probabilistic risk analysis models are used to provide a better understanding of the reliability and structural failure of works, including when calculating the stability of large structures to a major risk in the event of an accident or breakdown. This work is interested in the study of the probability of failure of concrete dams through the application of reliability analysis methods including the methods used in engineering. It is in our case, the use of level 2 methods via the study limit state. Hence, the probability of product failures is estimated by analytical methods of the type first order risk method (FORM) and the second order risk method (SORM). By way of comparison, a level three method was used which generates a full analysis of the problem and involves an integration of the probability density function of random variables extended to the field of security using the Monte Carlo simulation method. Taking into account the change in stress following load combinations: normal, exceptional and extreme acting on the dam, calculation of the results obtained have provided acceptable failure probability values which largely corroborate the theory, in fact, the probability of failure tends to increase with increasing load intensities, thus causing a significant decrease in strength, shear forces then induce a shift that threatens the reliability of the structure by intolerable values of the probability of product failures. Especially, in case the increase of uplift in a hypothetical default of the drainage system.

Keywords: Dam, failure, limit-state, Monte Carlo simulation, reliability, probability, simulation, sliding, Taylor.

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1678 Conflation Methodology Applied to Flood Recovery

Authors: E. L. Suarez, D. E. Meeroff, Y. Yong

Abstract:

Current flooding risk modeling focuses on resilience, defined as the probability of recovery from a severe flooding event. However, the long-term damage to property and well-being by nuisance flooding and its long-term effects on communities are not typically included in risk assessments. An approach was developed to address the probability of recovering from a severe flooding event combined with the probability of community performance during a nuisance event. A consolidated model, namely the conflation flooding recovery (&FR) model, evaluates risk-coping mitigation strategies for communities based on the recovery time from catastrophic events, such as hurricanes or extreme surges, and from everyday nuisance flooding events. The &FR model assesses the variation contribution of each independent input and generates a weighted output that favors the distribution with minimum variation. This approach is especially useful if the input distributions have dissimilar variances. The &FR is defined as a single distribution resulting from the product of the individual probability density functions. The resulting conflated distribution resides between the parent distributions, and it infers the recovery time required by a community to return to basic functions, such as power, utilities, transportation, and civil order, after a flooding event. The &FR model is more accurate than averaging individual observations before calculating the mean and variance or averaging the probabilities evaluated at the input values, which assigns the same weighted variation to each input distribution. The main disadvantage of these traditional methods is that the resulting measure of central tendency is exactly equal to the average of the input distribution’s means without the additional information provided by each individual distribution variance. When dealing with exponential distributions, such as resilience from severe flooding events and from nuisance flooding events, conflation results are equivalent to the weighted least squares method or best linear unbiased estimation. The combination of severe flooding risk with nuisance flooding improves flood risk management for highly populated coastal communities, such as in South Florida, USA, and provides a method to estimate community flood recovery time more accurately from two different sources, severe flooding events and nuisance flooding events.

Keywords: Community resilience, conflation, flood risk, nuisance flooding.

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1677 Corporate Cautionary Statement: A Genre of Professional Communication

Authors: Chie Urawa

Abstract:

Cautionary statements or disclaimers in corporate annual reports need to be carefully designed because clear cautionary statements may protect a company in the case of legal disputes and may undermine positive impressions. This study compares the language of cautionary statements using two corpora, Sony’s cautionary statement corpus (S-corpus) and Panasonic’s cautionary statement corpus (P-corpus), illustrating the differences and similarities in relation to the use of meaningful cautionary statements and critically analyzing why practitioners use the way. The findings describe the distinct differences between the two companies in the presentation of the risk factors and the way how they make the statements. The word ability is used more for legal protection in S-corpus whereas the word possibility is used more to convey a better impression in P-corpus. The main similarities are identified in the use of lexical words and pronouns, and almost the same wordings for eight years. The findings show how they make the statements unique to the company in the presentation of risk factors, and the characteristics of specific genre of professional communication. Important implications of this study are that more comprehensive approach can be applied in other contexts, and be used by companies to reflect upon their cautionary statements.

Keywords: Cautionary statements, corporate annual reports, corpus, risk factors.

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1676 Technological Deep Assessment of Automotive Parts Manufacturers Case of Iranian Manufacturers

Authors: Manouchehre Ansari, Mahmoud Dehghan Nayeri, Reza Yousefi Zenouz

Abstract:

In order to develop any strategy, it is essential to first identify opportunities, threats, weak and strong points. Assessment of technology level provides the possibility of concentrating on weak and strong points. The results of technology assessment have a direct effect on decision making process in the field of technology transfer or expansion of internal research capabilities so it has a critical role in technology management. This paper presents a conceptual model to analyze the technology capability of a company as a whole and in four main aspects of technology. This model was tested on 10 automotive parts manufacturers in IRAN. Using this model, capability level of manufacturers was investigated in four fields of managing aspects, hard aspects, human aspects, and information and knowledge aspects. Results show that these firms concentrate on hard aspect of technology while others aspects are poor and need to be supported more. So this industry should develop other aspects of technology as well as hard aspect to have effective and efficient use of its technology. These paper findings are useful for the technology planning and management in automotive part manufactures in IRAN and other Industries which are technology followers and transport their needed technologies.

Keywords: Technology, Technological evaluation, TechnologyMaturity

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1675 Assessments of Internal Erosion in a Landfill Due to Changes in Groundwater Level

Authors: Siamak Feizi, Gunvor Baardvik

Abstract:

Soil erosion has special consequences for landfills that are more serious than those found at conventional construction sites. Different potential heads between two sides of a landfill and the subsequent movement of water through pores within the soil body could trigger the soil erosion and construction instability. Such condition was encountered in a landfill project in the southern part of Norway. To check the risk of internal erosion due changes in the groundwater level (because of seasonal flooding in the river), a series of numerical simulations by means of Geo-Seep software were conducted. Output of this study provides a total picture of the landfill stability, possibilities of erosions and necessary measures to prevent or reduce the risk for the landfill operator.

Keywords: Erosion, seepage, landfill, stability.

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1674 Construct the Fur Input Mixed Model with Activity-Based Benefit Assessment Approach of Leather Industry

Authors: M. F. Wu, F. T. Cheng

Abstract:

Leather industry is the most important traditional industry to provide the leather products in the world for thousand years. The fierce global competitive environment and common awareness of global carbon reduction make livestock supply quantities falling, salt and wet blue leather material reduces and the price skyrockets significantly. Exchange rate fluctuation led sales revenue decreasing which due to the differences of export exchanges and compresses the overall profitability of leather industry. This paper applies activity-based benefit assessment approach to build up fitness fur input mixed model, fur is Wet Blue, which concerned with four key factors: the output rate of wet blue, unit cost of wet blue, yield rate and grade level of Wet Blue to achieve the low cost strategy under given unit price of leather product condition of the company. The research findings indicate that applying this model may improve the input cost structure, decrease numbers of leather product inventories and to raise the competitive advantages of the enterprise in the future.

Keywords: Activity-Based Benefit Assessment Approach, Input mixed, Output Rate, Wet Blue.

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1673 Information Resource Management Maturity Model

Authors: Afshari H., Khosravi Sh.

Abstract:

Nowadays there are more than thirty maturity models in different knowledge areas. Maturity model is an area of interest that contributes organizations to find out where they are in a specific knowledge area and how to improve it. As Information Resource Management (IRM) is the concept that information is a major corporate resource and must be managed using the same basic principles used to manage other assets, assessment of the current IRM status and reveal the improvement points can play a critical role in developing an appropriate information structure in organizations. In this paper we proposed a framework for information resource management maturity model (IRM3) that includes ten best practices for the maturity assessment of the organizations' IRM.

Keywords: Information resource management (IRM), information resource management maturity model (IRM3), maturity model, best practice.

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1672 Probabilistic Robustness Assessment of Structures under Sudden Column-Loss Scenario

Authors: Ali Y Al-Attraqchi, P. Rajeev, M. Javad Hashemi, Riadh Al-Mahaidi

Abstract:

This paper presents a probabilistic incremental dynamic analysis (IDA) of a full reinforced concrete building subjected to column loss scenario for the assessment of progressive collapse. The IDA is chosen to explicitly account for uncertainties in loads and system capacity. Fragility curves are developed to predict the probability of progressive collapse given the loss of one or more columns. At a broader scale, it will also provide critical information needed to support the development of a new generation of design codes that attempt to explicitly quantify structural robustness.

Keywords: Incremental dynamic analysis, progressive collapse, structural engineering, pushdown analysis.

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1671 Evaluation of Zinc Status in the Sediments of the Kaohsiung Ocean Disposal Site, Taiwan

Authors: Chiu-Wen Chen, Chih-Feng Chen, Cheng-Di Dong

Abstract:

The distribution, enrichment, and accumulation of zinc (Zn) in the sediments of Kaohsiung Ocean Disposal Site (KODS), Taiwan were investigated. Sediment samples from two outer disposal site stations and nine disposed stations in the KODS were collected per quarterly in 2009 and characterized for Zn, aluminum, organic matter, and grain size. Results showed that the mean Zn concentrations varied from 48 mg/kg to 456 mg/kg. Results from the enrichment factor (EF) and geo-accumulation index (Igeo) analyses imply that the sediments collected from the KODS can be characterized between moderate and moderately severe degree enrichment and between none and none to medium accumulation of Zn, respectively. However, results of potential ecological risk index indicate that the sediment has low ecological potential risk. The EF, Igeo, and Zn concentrations at the disposed stations were slightly higher than those at outer disposal site. This indicated that the disposed area centers may be subjected to the disposal impaction of harbor dredged sediments.

Keywords: ocean dispose; zinc; enrichment factor; potential ecological risk index.

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1670 Corporate Sustainable Development Assessment Base on the Corporate Social Responsibility

Authors: Sun Mei, Nagata Katsuya, Onoda Hiroshi

Abstract:

With the resource exhaustion, bad affections of human activities and the awakening of the human rights, the corporate social responsibility became popular corporate strategy achieving sustainable development of both corporation and society. The issue of Guideline of Chinese Corporate Social Responsibility Report promotes greatly corporation to take social responsibility. This paper built the index system according to this guideline and takes the textile industry as an example, uses the analytical hierarchy process to identify the weightings of different responsibilities of corporation to guide the corporate social responsibility performance assessment.

Keywords: Sustainable development, analytical hierarchyprocess, index system, corporate social responsibility

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1669 Assessment Tool for Social Responsibility Performance According to the ISO 26000

Authors: W. Fethallah, L. Chraibi, N. Sefiani

Abstract:

The present paper is concerned with a statistical approach involving latent and manifest variables applied in order to assess the organization's social responsibility performance. The main idea is to develop an assessment tool and a measurement of the Social Responsibility Performance, enabling the company to characterize her performance regarding to the ISO 26000 standard's seven core subjects. For this, we conceptualize a structural equation modeling (SEM) which describes various causal connections between the Social Responsibility’s components. The SEM’s resolution is based on the Partial Least squares (PLS) method and the implementation is running in the XLSTAT software.

Keywords: Corporate social responsibility, latent and manifest variable, partial least squares, structural equation model.

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1668 Web-Based Architecture of a System for Design Assessment of Night Vision Devices

Authors: Daniela I. Borissova, Ivan C. Mustakerov, Evgeni D. Bantutov

Abstract:

Nowadays the devices of night vision are widely used both for military and civil applications. The variety of night vision applications require a variety of the night vision devices designs. A web-based architecture of a software system for design assessment before producing of night vision devices is developed. The proposed architecture of the web-based system is based on the application of a mathematical model for designing of night vision devices. An algorithm with two components – for iterative design and for intelligent design is developed and integrated into system architecture. The iterative component suggests compatible modules combinations to choose from. The intelligent component provides compatible combinations of modules  satisfying given user requirements to device parameters. The proposed web-based architecture of a system for design assessment of night vision devices is tested via a prototype of the system. The testing showed the applicability of both iterative and intelligent components of algorithm. 

Keywords: Night vision devices, design modeling, software architecture, web-based system.

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1667 Assessing and Managing Intellectual Capital to Support Open Innovation Paradigm

Authors: Michele Grimaldi, Livio Cricelli, Francesco Rogo, Alessia Iannarelli

Abstract:

The objective of this paper is to support the application of Open Innovation practices in firms and organizations by the assessment and management of Intellectual Capital. Intellectual Capital constituents are analyzed in order to verify their capability of acting as key drivers of Open Innovation processes and, therefore, of creating value. A methodology is defined to settle a procedure which helps to select the most relevant Intellectual Capital value drivers and to provide Communities of Innovation with strategic and managerial guidelines in sustaining Open Innovation paradigm. An application of the methodology is developed within a specifically addressed project and its results are hereafter examined.

Keywords: Assessment, Community of Innovation, Intellectual Capital, Management, Open Innovation.

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1666 Guidelines for Developing, Supervising, Assessing and Evaluating Capstone Design Project of BSc in Electrical and Electronic Engineering Program

Authors: Muhibul Haque Bhuyan

Abstract:

Inclusion of any design project in an undergraduate electrical and electronic engineering curriculum and producing creative ideas in the final year capstone design projects have received numerous comments at the Board of Accreditation for Engineering and Technical Education (BAETE) several times by the mentors and visiting program evaluator team members at different public and private universities in Bangladesh. To eradicate this deficiency which is needed for getting the program accreditation, a thorough change was required in the Department of Electrical and Electronic Engineering (EEE) for its BSc in EEE program at Southeast University, Dhaka, Bangladesh. We suggested making changes in the course curriculum titles and contents, emphasizing to include capstone design projects, question setting, examining students through other standard methods, selecting and retaining Outcome-Based Education (OBE)-oriented engineering faculty members, improving laboratories through purchasing new equipment and software as well as developing new experiments for each laboratory courses, and engaging the students to practical designs in various courses and final year projects. This paper reports on capstone design project course objectives, course outcomes, mapping with the program outcomes, cognitive domain of learning, assessment schemes, guidelines, suggestions and recommendations for supervision processes, assessment strategy, and rubric setting, etc. It is expected that this will substantially improve the capstone design projects offering, supervision, and assessment in the undergraduate EEE program to fulfill the arduous requirements of BAETE accreditation based on OBE.

Keywords: Course outcome, capstone design project, assessment and evaluation, electrical and electronic engineering.

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1665 Multivariate Assessment of Mathematics Test Scores of Students in Qatar

Authors: Ali Rashash Alzahrani, Elizabeth Stojanovski

Abstract:

Data on various aspects of education are collected at the institutional and government level regularly. In Australia, for example, students at various levels of schooling undertake examinations in numeracy and literacy as part of NAPLAN testing, enabling longitudinal assessment of such data as well as comparisons between schools and states within Australia. Another source of educational data collected internationally is via the PISA study which collects data from several countries when students are approximately 15 years of age and enables comparisons in the performance of science, mathematics and English between countries as well as ranking of countries based on performance in these standardised tests. As well as student and school outcomes based on the tests taken as part of the PISA study, there is a wealth of other data collected in the study including parental demographics data and data related to teaching strategies used by educators. Overall, an abundance of educational data is available which has the potential to be used to help improve educational attainment and teaching of content in order to improve learning outcomes. A multivariate assessment of such data enables multiple variables to be considered simultaneously and will be used in the present study to help develop profiles of students based on performance in mathematics using data obtained from the PISA study.

Keywords: Cluster analysis, education, mathematics, profiles.

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1664 Efficient Frontier - Comparing Different Volatility Estimators

Authors: Tea Poklepović, Zdravka Aljinović, Mario Matković

Abstract:

Modern Portfolio Theory (MPT) according to Markowitz states that investors form mean-variance efficient portfolios which maximizes their utility. Markowitz proposed the standard deviation as a simple measure for portfolio risk and the lower semi-variance as the only risk measure of interest to rational investors. This paper uses a third volatility estimator based on intraday data and compares three efficient frontiers on the Croatian Stock Market. The results show that range-based volatility estimator outperforms both mean-variance and lower semi-variance model.

Keywords: Variance, lower semi-variance, range-based volatility.

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1663 Comparison of Mamdani and Sugeno Fuzzy Interference Systems for the Breast Cancer Risk

Authors: Alshalaa A. Shleeg, Issmail M. Ellabib

Abstract:

Breast cancer is a major health burden worldwide being a major cause of death amongst women. In this paper, Fuzzy Inference Systems (FIS) are developed for the evaluation of breast cancer risk using Mamdani-type and Sugeno-type models. The paper outlines the basic difference between Mamdani-type FIS and Sugeno-type FIS. The results demonstrated the performance comparison of the two systems and the advantages of using Sugeno- type over Mamdani-type.

Keywords: Breast cancer diagnosis, Fuzzy Inference System (FIS), Fuzzy Logic, fuzzy intelligent technique.

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1662 Fuzzy Based Environmental System Approach for Impact Assessment - Case Studies

Authors: Marius Pislaru, Alexandru F. Trandabat

Abstract:

Environmental studies have expanded dramatically all over the world in the past few years. Nowadays businesses interact with society and the environment in ways that put their mark on both sides. Efforts improving human standard living, through the control of nature and the development of new products, have also resulted in contamination of the environment. Consequently companies play an important role in environmental sustainability of a region or country. Therefore we can say that a company's sustainable development is strictly dependent on the environment. This article presents a fuzzy model to evaluate a company's environmental impact. Article illustrates an example of the automotive industry in order to prove the usefulness of using such a model.

Keywords: fuzzy approach, environmental impact assessment, sustainability

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1661 Study of Chest Pain and its Risk Factors in Over 30 Year-Old Individuals

Authors: S. Dabiran

Abstract:

Chest pain is one of the most prevalent complaints among adults that cause the people to attend to medical centers. The aim was to determine the prevalence and risk factors of chest pain among over 30 years old people in Tehran. In this cross-sectional study, 787 adults took part from Apr 2005 until Apr 2006. The sampling method was random cluster sampling and there were 25 clusters. In each cluster, interviews were performed with 32 over 30 years old, people lived in those houses. In cases with chest pain, extra questions asked. The prevalence of CP was 9% (71 cases). Of them 21 cases (6.5%) were in 41-60 year age ranges and the remainders were over 61 year old. 19 cases (26.8%) mentioned CP in resting state and all of the cases had exertion onset CP. The CP duration was 10 minutes or less in all of the cases and in most of them (84.5%), the location of pain mentioned left anterior part of chest, left anterior part of sternum and or left arm. There was positive history of myocardial infarction in 12 cases (17%). There was significant relation between CP and age, sex and between history of myocardial infarction and marital state of study people. Our results are similar to other studies- results in most parts, however it is necessary to perform supplementary tests and follow up studies to differentiate between cardiac and non-cardiac CP exactly.

Keywords: Chest pain, myocardial infarction, risk factor, prevalence

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1660 Sustainable Engineering: Synergy of BIM and Environmental Assessment Tools in the Hong Kong Construction Industry

Authors: Kwok Tak Kit

Abstract:

The construction industry plays an important role in environmental and carbon emissions as it consumes a huge amount of natural resources and energy. Sustainable engineering involves the process of planning, design, procurement, construction and delivery in which the whole building and construction process resulting from building and construction can be effectively and sustainability managed to achieve the use of natural resources. Implementation of sustainable technology development and innovation, adoption of the advanced construction process and facilitate the facilities management to implement the energy and waste control more accurately and effectively. Study and research in the relationship of BIM and environment assessment tools lack a clear discussion. In this paper, we will focus on the synergy of BIM technology and sustainable engineering in the AEC industry and outline the key factors which enhance the use of advanced innovation, technology and method and define the role of stakeholders to achieve zero-carbon emission toward the Paris Agreement to limit global warming to well below 2°C above pre-industrial levels. A case study of the adoption of Building Information Modeling (BIM) and environmental assessment tools in Hong Kong will be discussed in this paper.

Keywords: sustainability, sustainable engineering, BIM, LEED

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1659 Evaluation of Risks in New Product Innovation

Authors: Emre Alptekin, Damla Yalçınyiğit, Gülfem Alptekin

Abstract:

In highly competitive environments, a growing number of companies must regularly launch new products speedily and successfully. A company-s success is based on the systematic, conscious product designing method which meets the market requirements and takes risks as well as resources into consideration. Research has found that developing and launching new products are inherently risky endeavors. Hence in this research, we aim at introducing a risk evaluation framework for the new product innovation process. Our framework is based on the fuzzy analytical hierarchy process (FAHP) methodology. We have applied all the stages of the framework on the risk evaluation process of a pharmaceuticals company.

Keywords: Evaluation, risks, product innovation.

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1658 Magnitude and Determinants of Overweight and Obesity among High School Adolescents in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia

Authors: Mulugeta Shegaze, Mekitie Wondafrash, Alemayehu A. Alemayehu, Shikur Mohammed, Zewdu Shewangezaw, Mukerem Abdo, Gebresilasea Gendisha

Abstract:

Background: The 2004 World Health Assembly called for specific actions to halt the overweight and obesity epidemic that is currently penetrating urban populations in the developing world. Adolescents require particular attention due to their vulnerability to develop obesity and the fact that adolescent weight tracks strongly into adulthood. However, there is scarcity of information on the modifiable risk factors to be targeted for primary intervention among urban adolescents in Ethiopia. This study was aimed at determining the magnitude and risk factors of overweight and obesity among high school adolescents in Addis Ababa. Methods: An institution-based cross-sectional study was conducted in February and March 2014 on 456 randomly selected adolescents from 20 high schools in Addis Ababa city.  Demographic data and other risk factors of overweight and obesity were collected using self-administered structured questionnaire, whereas anthropometric measurements of weight and height were taken using calibrated equipment and standardized techniques. The WHO STEPS instrument for chronic disease risk was applied to assess dietary habit and physical activity. Overweight and obesity status was determined based on BMI-for-age percentiles of WHO 2007 reference population. Results: The prevalence rates of overweight, obesity, and overall overweight/ obesity among high school adolescents in Addis Ababa were 9.7% (95%CI = 6.9-12.4%), 4.2% (95%CI = 2.3-6.0%), and 13.9% (95%CI = 10.6-17.1%), respectively. Overweight/obesity prevalence was highest among female adolescents, in private schools, and in the higher wealth category. In multivariable regression model, being female [AOR(95%CI) = 5.4(2.5,12.1)], being from private school [AOR(95%CI) = 3.0(1.4,6.2)], having >3 regular meals [AOR(95%CI) = 4.0(1.3,13.0)], consumption of sweet foods [AOR(95%CI) = 5.0(2.4,10.3)] and spending >3 hours/day sitting [AOR(95%CI) = 3.5(1.7,7.2)] were found to increase overweight/ obesity risk, whereas high Total Physical Activity level [AOR(95%CI) = 0.21(0.08,0.57)] and better nutrition knowledge [AOR(95%CI) = 0.160.07,0.37)] were found protective. Conclusions: More than one in ten of the high school adolescents were affected by overweight/obesity with dietary habit and physical activity are important modifiable risk factors. Well-tailored nutrition education program targeting lifestyle change should be initiated with more emphasis to female adolescents and students in private schools.

Keywords: Adolescents, NCDs, overweight, obesity.

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1657 Thermal Radiation and Noise Safety Assessment of an Offshore Platform Flare Stack as Sudden Emergency Relief Takes Place

Authors: Lai Xuejiang, Huang Li, Yang Yi

Abstract:

To study the potential hazards of the sudden emergency relief of flare stack, the thermal radiation and noise calculation of flare stack is carried out by using Flaresim program 2.0. Thermal radiation and noise analysis should be considered as the sudden emergency relief takes place. According to the Flaresim software simulation results, the thermal radiation and noise meet the requirement.

Keywords: Flare stack, thermal radiation, noise, safety assessment.

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1656 Ecological Risk Assessment of Polycyclic Aromatic Hydrocarbons in the Northwest of the Persian Gulf

Authors: Ghazaleh Monazami Tehrani, Reza Khani Jazani, Rosli Hashim , Ahmad Savari, Belin Tavakoly Sany, Parastoo Parivar, Zhamak Monazami Tehrani

Abstract:

This study investigated the presence of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) in the sediments of the Musa Bay (around the PETZONE coastal area) from Feb 2010 to Jun 2010. Concentrations of PAHs recorded in the Musa Bay sediments ranged from 537.89 to 26,659.06 ng/g dry weight with a mean value of 3990.74 ng/g. the highest concentration of PAHs was observed at station 4, which is located near the aromatic outlet of Imam Khomeini petrochemical company (station 4: BI-PC Aromatic effluent outlet) in which its concentration level was more than the NOAA sediment quality guideline value (ERL= 4022 ng/g dry weight). Owing to the concentration of PAHs in the study area, its concentration level was still meet the NOAA sediment quality guideline value (ERL: 4022 ng/g dry weight); however, according to the PELq factor, slightly adverse biological effects are associated with the exposure to PAHs levels in the study area (0.1< PELq= 0.24 > 0.5).

Keywords: Musa Bay, PAHs, PETZONE, NOAA, PELq.

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1655 Impact of Liquidity Crunch on Interbank Network

Authors: I. Lucas, N. Schomberg, F-A. Couturier

Abstract:

Most empirical studies have analyzed how liquidity risks faced by individual institutions turn into systemic risk. Recent banking crisis has highlighted the importance of grasping and controlling the systemic risk, and the acceptance by Central Banks to ease their monetary policies for saving default or illiquid banks. This last point shows that banks would pay less attention to liquidity risk which, in turn, can become a new important channel of loss. The financial regulation focuses on the most important and “systemic” banks in the global network. However, to quantify the expected loss associated with liquidity risk, it is worth to analyze sensitivity to this channel for the various elements of the global bank network. A small bank is not considered as potentially systemic; however the interaction of small banks all together can become a systemic element. This paper analyzes the impact of medium and small banks interaction on a set of banks which is considered as the core of the network. The proposed method uses the structure of agent-based model in a two-class environment. In first class, the data from actual balance sheets of 22 large and systemic banks (such as BNP Paribas or Barclays) are collected. In second one, to model a network as closely as possible to actual interbank market, 578 fictitious banks smaller than the ones belonging to first class have been split into two groups of small and medium ones. All banks are active on the European interbank network and have deposit and market activity. A simulation of 12 three month periods representing a midterm time interval three years is projected. In each period, there is a set of behavioral descriptions: repayment of matured loans, liquidation of deposits, income from securities, collection of new deposits, new demands of credit, and securities sale. The last two actions are part of refunding process developed in this paper. To strengthen reliability of proposed model, random parameters dynamics are managed with stochastic equations as rates the variations of which are generated by Vasicek model. The Central Bank is considered as the lender of last resort which allows banks to borrow at REPO rate and some ejection conditions of banks from the system are introduced.

Liquidity crunch due to exogenous crisis is simulated in the first class and the loss impact on other bank classes is analyzed though aggregate values representing the aggregate of loans and/or the aggregate of borrowing between classes. It is mainly shown that the three groups of European interbank network do not have the same response, and that intermediate banks are the most sensitive to liquidity risk.

Keywords: Systemic Risk, Financial Contagion, Liquidity Risk, Interbank Market, Network Model.

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1654 Operation Assay of an Industrial Single-Source – Single-Detector Gamma CT Using MCNP4C Code Simulation and Experimental Test Comparisons

Authors: M. Ghanadi, M. Rezazadeh*, M. Ardeshiri, R. Gholipour Peyvandi, M. Jafarzadeh, M. Shahriari, M.Rezaei Rad, Z. Gholamzadeh

Abstract:

A 3D industrial computed tomography (CT) manufactured based on a first generation CT systems, single-source – single-detector, was evaluated. Operation accuracy assessment of the manufactured system was achieved using simulation in comparison with experimental tests. 137Cs and 60Co were used as a gamma source. Simulations were achieved using MCNP4C code. Experimental tests of 137Cs were in good agreement with the simulations

Keywords: Gamma source, Industrial CT, MCNP4C, Operation assessment

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1653 Associations between Surrogate Insulin Resistance Indices and the Risk of Metabolic Syndrome in Children

Authors: Mustafa M. Donma, Orkide Donma

Abstract:

A well-defined insulin resistance (IR) is one of the requirements for the good understanding and evaluation of metabolic syndrome (MetS). However, underlying causes for the development of IR are not clear. Endothelial dysfunction also participates in the pathogenesis of this disease. IR indices are being determined in various obesity groups and also in diagnosing MetS. Components of MetS have been well established and used in adult studies. However, there are some ambiguities particularly in the field of pediatrics. The aims of this study were to compare the performance of fasting blood glucose (FBG), one of MetS components, with some other IR indices and check whether FBG may be replaced by some other parameter or ratio for a better evaluation of pediatric MetS. Five-hundred and forty-nine children were involved in the study. Five groups were constituted. Groups 109, 40, 100, 166, 110, 24 children were included in normal-body mass index (N-BMI), overweight (OW), obese (OB), morbid obese (MO), MetS with two components (MetS2) and MetS with three components (MetS3) groups, respectively. Age and sex-adjusted BMI percentiles tabulated by World Health Organization were used for the classification of obesity groups. MetS components were determined. Aside from one of the MetS components-FBG, eight measures of IR [homeostatic model assessment of IR (HOMA-IR), homeostatic model assessment of beta cell function (HOMA-%β), alanine transaminase-to-aspartate transaminase ratio (ALT/AST), alanine transaminase (ALT), insulin (INS), insulin-to-FBG ratio (INS/FBG), the product of fasting triglyceride and glucose (TyG) index, McAuley index] were evaluated. Statistical analyses were performed. A p value less than 0.05 was accepted as the statistically significance degree. Mean values for BMI of the groups were 15.7 kg/m2, 21.0 kg/m2, 24.7 kg/m2, 27.1 kg/m2, 28.7 kg/m2, 30.4 kg/m2 for N-BMI, OW, OB, MO, MetS2, MetS3, respectively. Differences between the groups were significant (p < 0.001). The only exception was MetS2-MetS3 couple, in spite of an increase detected in MetS3 group. Waist-to-hip circumference ratios significantly differed only for N-BMI vs, OB, MO, MetS2; OW vs MO; OB vs MO, MetS2 couples. ALT and ALT/AST did not differ significantly among MO-MetS2-MetS3. HOMA-%β differed only between MO and MetS2. INS/FBG, McAuley index and TyG were not significant between MetS2 and MetS3. HOMA-IR and FBG were not significant between MO and MetS2. INS was the only parameter, which showed statistically significant differences between MO-MetS2, MO-MetS3, and MetS2-MetS3. In conclusion, these findings have suggested that FBG presently considered as one of the five MetS components, may be replaced by INS during the evaluation of pediatric morbid obesity and MetS.

Keywords: Children, insulin resistance indices, metabolic syndrome, obesity.

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1652 Delineating Students’ Speaking Anxieties and Assessment Gaps in Online Speech Performances

Authors: Mary Jane B. Suarez

Abstract:

Speech anxiety is innumerable in any traditional communication classes especially for ESL students. The speech anxiety intensifies when communication skills assessments have taken its toll in an online mode of learning due to the perils of the COVID-19 virus. Teachers and students have experienced vast ambiguity on how to realize a still effective way to teach and learn various speaking skills amidst the pandemic. This mixed method study determined the factors that affected the public speaking skills of students in online performances, delineated the assessment gaps in assessing speaking skills in an online setup, and recommended ways to address students’ speech anxieties. Using convergent parallel design, quantitative data were gathered by examining the desired learning competencies of the English course including a review of the teacher’s class record to analyze how students’ performances reflected a significantly high level of anxiety in online speech delivery. Focus group discussion was also conducted for qualitative data describing students’ public speaking anxiety and assessment gaps. Results showed a significantly high level of students’ speech anxiety affected by time constraints, use of technology, lack of audience response, being conscious of making mistakes, and the use of English as a second language. The study presented recommendations to redesign curricular assessments of English teachers and to have a robust diagnosis of students’ speaking anxiety to better cater to the needs of learners in attempt to bridge any gaps in cultivating public speaking skills of students as educational institutions segue from the pandemic to the post-pandemic milieu.

Keywords: Blended learning, communication skills assessment, online speech delivery, public speaking anxiety, speech anxiety.

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