Search results for: analysis system
Commenced in January 2007
Frequency: Monthly
Edition: International
Paper Count: 14812

Search results for: analysis system

14392 Flexible Manufacturing System

Authors: Peter Kostal, Karol Velisek

Abstract:

Flexible manufacturing system is a system that is able to respond to changed conditions. In general, this flexibility is divided into two key categories and several subcategories. The first category is the so called machine flexibility which enables to make various products by the given machinery. The second category is routing flexibility enabling to execute the same operation by various machines. Flexible manufacturing systems usually consist of three main parts: CNC machine tools, transport system and control system. A higher level of flexible manufacturing systems is represented by the so called intelligent manufacturing systems.

Keywords: drawing-free manufacturing, flexible manufacturing system, industrial robot, material flow.

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14391 Customers’ Intention to Use Electronic Payment System for Purchasing

Authors: Wanida Suwunniponth

Abstract:

The purpose of this research was to study the factors of characteristic of business, website quality and trust affected intention to use electronic payment systems for online purchasing. This survey research used questionnaire as a tool to collect the data of 300 customers who purchased online products and used an electronic payment system. The descriptive statistics and multiple regression analysis were used to analyze data. The results revealed that customers had a good opinion towards the characteristic of the business and website quality. However, they have a moderate opinion towards trust and intention to repurchase. In addition, the characteristics of the business affected the purchase intention the most, followed by website quality and the trust with statistical significance at 0.05 level. For particular, the terms of reputation, communication, information quality, perceived risk and word of mouth affected the intention to use the electronic payment system. In contrast, the terms of size, system quality and service quality did not affect intention to use an electronic payment system.

Keywords: Electronic payment, intention, online purchasing, trust.

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14390 Evaluation of Mixed-Mode Stress Intensity Factor by Digital Image Correlation and Intelligent Hybrid Method

Authors: K. Machida, H. Yamada

Abstract:

Displacement measurement was conducted on compact normal and shear specimens made of acrylic homogeneous material subjected to mixed-mode loading by digital image correlation. The intelligent hybrid method proposed by Nishioka et al. was applied to the stress-strain analysis near the crack tip. The accuracy of stress-intensity factor at the free surface was discussed from the viewpoint of both the experiment and 3-D finite element analysis. The surface images before and after deformation were taken by a CMOS camera, and we developed the system which enabled the real time stress analysis based on digital image correlation and inverse problem analysis. The great portion of processing time of this system was spent on displacement analysis. Then, we tried improvement in speed of this portion. In the case of cracked body, it is also possible to evaluate fracture mechanics parameters such as the J integral, the strain energy release rate, and the stress-intensity factor of mixed-mode. The 9-points elliptic paraboloid approximation could not analyze the displacement of submicron order with high accuracy. The analysis accuracy of displacement was improved considerably by introducing the Newton-Raphson method in consideration of deformation of a subset. The stress-intensity factor was evaluated with high accuracy of less than 1% of the error.

Keywords: Digital image correlation, mixed mode, Newton-Raphson method, stress intensity factor.

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14389 Endeavor in Management Process by Executive Dashboards: The Case of the Financial Directorship in Brazilian Navy

Authors: R. S. Quintal, J. L. Tesch Santos, M. D. Davis, E. C. de Santana, M. de F. Bandeira dos Santos

Abstract:

The objective is to identify the contributions from the introduction of the computerized system deal within the Accounting Department of Brazilian Navy Financial Directorship and its possible effects on the budgetary and financial harvest of Brazilian Navy. The relevance lies in the fact that the management process is responsible for the continuous improvement of organizational performance through higher levels of quality in their activities. Improvements in organizational processes have direct effects on crops cost, quality, reliability, flexibility and speed. The method of study of this research is the case study. The choice of case study attended, among other demands, a need for greater flexibility to study processes related to a computerized system. The sources of evidence were used literature, documentary and direct observation. Direct observation was made by monitoring the implementation of the computerized system in the Division of Management Analysis. The main findings of the study point to the fact that the computerized system may contribute significantly to the standardization of information. There was improvement of internal processes in the division of management analysis, made possible the consolidation of a standard management and performance analysis that contribute to global homogeneity in the treatment of information essential to the process of decision making. This study has limitations related to the fact the search result be subject exclusively to the case studied, and it is impossible to generalize to other organs of government.

Keywords: Process Management, Management Control, Business Intelligence.

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14388 Direct Sequence Spread Spectrum Technique with Residue Number System

Authors: M. I. Youssef, A. E. Emam, M. Abd Elghany

Abstract:

In this paper, a residue number arithmetic is used in direct sequence spread spectrum system, this system is evaluated and the bit error probability of this system is compared to that of non residue number system. The effect of channel bandwidth, PN sequences, multipath effect and modulation scheme are studied. A Matlab program is developed to measure the signal-to-noise ratio (SNR), and the bit error probability for the various schemes.

Keywords: Spread Spectrum, Direct sequence, Bit errorprobability and Residue number system.

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14387 Distributed e-Learning System with Client-Server and P2P Hybrid Architecture

Authors: Kazunari Meguro, Shinichi Motomura, Takao Kawamura, Kazunori Sugahara

Abstract:

We have developed a distributed asynchronous Web based training system. In order to improve the scalability and robustness of this system, all contents and a function are realized on mobile agents. These agents are distributed to computers, and they can use a Peer to Peer network that modified Content-Addressable Network. In this system, all computers offer the function and exercise by themselves. However, the system that all computers do the same behavior is not realistic. In this paper, as a solution of this issue, we present an e-Learning system that is composed of computers of different participation types. Enabling the computer of different participation types will improve the convenience of the system.

Keywords: Distributed Multimedia Systems, e-Learning, P2P, Mobile Agen

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14386 Importance of Simulation in Manufacturing

Authors: F. Hosseinpour, H. Hajihosseini

Abstract:

Simulation is a very helpful and valuable work tool in manufacturing. It can be used in industrial field allowing the system`s behavior to be learnt and tested. Simulation provides a low cost, secure and fast analysis tool. It also provides benefits, which can be reached with many different system configurations. Topics to be discussed include: Applications, Modeling, Validating, Software and benefits of simulation. This paper provides a comprehensive literature review on research efforts in simulation.

Keywords: Manufacturing, modeling, simulation, training.

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14385 An Automated Stock Investment System Using Machine Learning Techniques: An Application in Australia

Authors: Carol Anne Hargreaves

Abstract:

A key issue in stock investment is how to select representative features for stock selection. The objective of this paper is to firstly determine whether an automated stock investment system, using machine learning techniques, may be used to identify a portfolio of growth stocks that are highly likely to provide returns better than the stock market index. The second objective is to identify the technical features that best characterize whether a stock’s price is likely to go up and to identify the most important factors and their contribution to predicting the likelihood of the stock price going up. Unsupervised machine learning techniques, such as cluster analysis, were applied to the stock data to identify a cluster of stocks that was likely to go up in price – portfolio 1. Next, the principal component analysis technique was used to select stocks that were rated high on component one and component two – portfolio 2. Thirdly, a supervised machine learning technique, the logistic regression method, was used to select stocks with a high probability of their price going up – portfolio 3. The predictive models were validated with metrics such as, sensitivity (recall), specificity and overall accuracy for all models. All accuracy measures were above 70%. All portfolios outperformed the market by more than eight times. The top three stocks were selected for each of the three stock portfolios and traded in the market for one month. After one month the return for each stock portfolio was computed and compared with the stock market index returns. The returns for all three stock portfolios was 23.87% for the principal component analysis stock portfolio, 11.65% for the logistic regression portfolio and 8.88% for the K-means cluster portfolio while the stock market performance was 0.38%. This study confirms that an automated stock investment system using machine learning techniques can identify top performing stock portfolios that outperform the stock market.

Keywords: Machine learning, stock market trading, logistic principal component analysis, automated stock investment system.

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14384 Estimating the Life-Distribution Parameters of Weibull-Life PV Systems Utilizing Non-Parametric Analysis

Authors: Saleem Z. Ramadan

Abstract:

In this paper, a model is proposed to determine the life distribution parameters of the useful life region for the PV system utilizing a combination of non-parametric and linear regression analysis for the failure data of these systems. Results showed that this method is dependable for analyzing failure time data for such reliable systems when the data is scarce.

Keywords: Masking, Bathtub model, reliability, non-parametric analysis, useful life.

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14383 Reliability Analysis of Press Unit using Vague Set

Authors: S. P. Sharma, Monica Rani

Abstract:

In conventional reliability assessment, the reliability data of system components are treated as crisp values. The collected data have some uncertainties due to errors by human beings/machines or any other sources. These uncertainty factors will limit the understanding of system component failure due to the reason of incomplete data. In these situations, we need to generalize classical methods to fuzzy environment for studying and analyzing the systems of interest. Fuzzy set theory has been proposed to handle such vagueness by generalizing the notion of membership in a set. Essentially, in a Fuzzy Set (FS) each element is associated with a point-value selected from the unit interval [0, 1], which is termed as the grade of membership in the set. A Vague Set (VS), as well as an Intuitionistic Fuzzy Set (IFS), is a further generalization of an FS. Instead of using point-based membership as in FS, interval-based membership is used in VS. The interval-based membership in VS is more expressive in capturing vagueness of data. In the present paper, vague set theory coupled with conventional Lambda-Tau method is presented for reliability analysis of repairable systems. The methodology uses Petri nets (PN) to model the system instead of fault tree because it allows efficient simultaneous generation of minimal cuts and path sets. The presented method is illustrated with the press unit of the paper mill.

Keywords: Lambda -Tau methodology, Petri nets, repairable system, vague fuzzy set.

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14382 Postbuckling Analysis of End Supported Rods under Self-Weight Using Intrinsic Coordinate Finite Elements

Authors: C. Juntarasaid, T. Pulngern, S. Chucheepsakul

Abstract:

A formulation of postbuckling analysis of end supported rods under self-weight has been presented by the variational method. The variational formulation involving the strain energy due to bending and the potential energy of the self-weight, are expressed in terms of the intrinsic coordinates. The variational formulation is accomplished by introducing the Lagrange multiplier technique to impose the boundary conditions. The finite element method is used to derive a system of nonlinear equations resulting from the stationary of the total potential energy and then Newton-Raphson iterative procedure is applied to solve this system of equations. The numerical results demonstrate the postbluckled configurations of end supported rods under self-weight. This finite element method based on variational formulation expressed in term of intrinsic coordinate is highly recommended for postbuckling analysis of end-supported rods under self-weight.

Keywords: Variational method, postbuckling, finite element method, intrinsic coordinate.

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14381 Application Potential of Selected Tools in Context of Critical Infrastructure Protection and Risk Analysis

Authors: Hromada Martin

Abstract:

Risk analysis is considered as a fundamental aspect relevant for ensuring the level of critical infrastructure protection, where the critical infrastructure is seen as system, asset or its part which is important for maintaining the vital societal functions. Article actually discusses and analyzes the potential application of selected tools of information support for the implementation and within the framework of risk analysis and critical infrastructure protection. Use of the information in relation to their risk analysis can be viewed as a form of simplifying the analytical process. It is clear that these instruments (information support) for these purposes are countless, so they were selected representatives who have already been applied in the selected area of critical infrastructure, or they can be used. All presented fact were the basis for critical infrastructure resilience evaluation methodology development.

Keywords: Critical infrastructure, Protection, Resilience, Risk Analysis.

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14380 Behavior of Concrete Slab Track on Asphalt Trackbed Subjected to Thermal Load

Authors: Woo Young Jung, Seong Hyeok Lee, Jin Wook Lee, Bu Seog Ju

Abstract:

Concrete track slab and asphalt trackbed are being introduced in Korea for providing good bearing capacity, durability to the track and comfortable rideness to passengers. Such a railway system has been designed by the train load so as to ensure stability. But there is lack of research and design for temperature changes which influence the behavior characteristics of concrete and asphalt. Therefore, in this study, the behavior characteristics of concrete track slab subjected to varying temperatures were analyzed through structural analysis using the finite element analysis program. The structural analysis was performed by considering the friction condition on the boundary surfaces in order to analyze the interaction between concrete slab and asphalt trackbed. As a result, the design of the railway system should be designed by considering the interaction and temperature changes between concrete track slab and asphalt trackbed.

Keywords: Con’c Track Slab, Asphalt Trackbed, Thermal Load, Friction Condition.

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14379 Artificial Neural Network Model for a Low Cost Failure Sensor: Performance Assessment in Pipeline Distribution

Authors: Asar Khan, Peter D. Widdop, Andrew J. Day, Aliaster S. Wood, Steve, R. Mounce, John Machell

Abstract:

This paper describes an automated event detection and location system for water distribution pipelines which is based upon low-cost sensor technology and signature analysis by an Artificial Neural Network (ANN). The development of a low cost failure sensor which measures the opacity or cloudiness of the local water flow has been designed, developed and validated, and an ANN based system is then described which uses time series data produced by sensors to construct an empirical model for time series prediction and classification of events. These two components have been installed, tested and verified in an experimental site in a UK water distribution system. Verification of the system has been achieved from a series of simulated burst trials which have provided real data sets. It is concluded that the system has potential in water distribution network management.

Keywords: Detection, leakage, neural networks, sensors, water distribution networks

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14378 Development of User Interface for Path Planning System for Bus Network and On-demand Bus Reservation System

Authors: Seiichi Tamagawa, Takao Kawamura, Toshihiko Sasama, Kazunori Sugahara

Abstract:

Route bus system is one of fundamental transportation device for aged people and students, and has an important role in every province. However, passengers decrease year by year, therefore the authors have developed the system called "Bus-Net" as a web application to sustain the public transport. But there are two problems in Bus-Net. One is the user interface that does not consider the variety of the device, and the other is the path planning system that dose not correspond to the on-demand bus. Then, Bus-Net was improved to be able to utilize the variety of the device, and a new function corresponding to the on-demand bus was developed.

Keywords: Route Bus, Path Planning System, User Interface, Ondemandbus, Reservation system.

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14377 Basic Tendency Model in Complete Factor Synergetics of Complex Systems

Authors: Li Zong-Cheng

Abstract:

The deviation between the target state variable and the practical state variable should be used to form the state tending factor of complex systems, which can reflect the process for the complex system to tend rationalization. Relating to the system of basic equations of complete factor synergetics consisting of twenty nonlinear stochastic differential equations, the two new models are considered to set, which should be called respectively the rationalizing tendency model and the non- rationalizing tendency model. Therefore we can extend the theory of programming with the objective function & constraint condition suitable only for the realm of man-s activities into the new analysis with the tendency function & constraint condition suitable for all the field of complex system.

Keywords: complex system, complete factor synergetics, basicequation, rationalizing tendency model, non-rationalizing tendencymodel.

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14376 Modified Techniques for Distribution System Reliability Improvement by Parallel Operation of Transformers

Authors: Ohn Zin Lin, Okka, Cho Cho Myint

Abstract:

It is important to consider the effects of transformers on distribution system because they have the highest impact on system reliability. It is generally said that parallel operation of transformers (POT) can improve the system reliability. However, the estimation approach can be also considered for accuracy. In this paper, we propose a three-state components model and equations to determine the reliability improvement by POT, and cooperation of POT and distributed generation (DG). Based on the proposed model and techniques, the effect of POT is analyzed in four different tests with the consideration of conventional distribution system, distribution automation system (DAS) and DG. According to the results, the reliability is greatly improved by cooperation of POT, DAS and DG. The proposed model and methods are applicable to not only developing countries which have conventional distribution system but also developed countries in which DAS has already installed.

Keywords: Distribution system, reliability, dispersed generator, energy not supply, transformer parallel operation.

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14375 Rural Connectivity Technologies Cost Analysis

Authors: F. Simba, L. Trojer, N.H. Mvungi, B.M. Mwinyiwiwa, E.M. Mjema

Abstract:

Rural areas of Tanzania are still disadvantaged in terms of diffusion of IP-based services; this is due to lack of Information and Communication Technology (ICT) infrastructures, especially lack of connectivity. One of the limitations for connectivity problems in rural areas of Tanzania is the high cost to establish infrastructures for IP-based services [1-2]. However the cost of connectivity varies from one technology to the other and at the same time, the cost is also different from one operator (service provider) to another within the country. This paper presents development of software system to calculate cost of connectivity to rural areas of Tanzania. The system is developed to make an easy access of connectivity cost from different technologies and different operators. The development of the calculator follows the V-model software development lifecycle. The calculator is used to evaluate the economic viability of different technologies considered as being potential candidates to provide rural connectivity. In this paper, the evaluation is based on the techno-economic analysis approach.

Keywords: rural, connectivity, cost, V-model, techno economic analysis.

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14374 Reliability Analysis of Heat Exchanger Cycle Using Non-Parametric Method

Authors: Apurv Kulkarni, Shreyas Badave, B. Rajiv

Abstract:

Non-parametric reliability technique is useful for assessment of reliability of systems for which failure rates are not available. This is useful when detection of malfunctioning of any component is the key purpose during ongoing operation of the system. The main purpose of the Heat Exchanger Cycle discussed in this paper is to provide hot water at a constant temperature for longer periods of time. In such a cycle, certain components play a crucial role and this paper presents an effective way to predict the malfunctioning of the components by determination of system reliability. The method discussed in the paper is feasible and this is clarified with the help of various test cases.

Keywords: Heat exchanger cycle, K-statistics, PID controller, system reliability.

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14373 Comparison of Finite-Element and IEC Methods for Cable Thermal Analysis under Various Operating Environments

Authors: M. S. Baazzim, M. S. Al-Saud, M. A. El-Kady

Abstract:

In this paper, steady-state ampacity (current carrying capacity) evaluation of underground power cable system by using analytical and numerical methods for different conditions (depth of cable, spacing between phases, soil thermal resistivity, ambient temperature, wind speed), for two system voltage level were used 132 and 380 kV. The analytical method or traditional method that was used is based on the thermal analysis method developed by Neher-McGrath and further enhanced by International Electrotechnical Commission (IEC) and published in standard IEC 60287. The numerical method that was used is finite element method and it was recourse commercial software based on finite element method. 

Keywords: Cable ampacity, Finite element method, underground cable, thermal rating.

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14372 Wind Farm Modeling for Steady State and Dynamic Analysis

Authors: G.Kabashi, K.Kadriu, A.Gashi, S.Kabashi, G, Pula, V.Komoni

Abstract:

This paper focuses on PSS/E modeling of wind farms of Doubly-fed Induction Generator (DFIG) type and their impact on issues of power system operation. Since Wind Turbine Generators (WTG) don-t have the same characteristics as synchronous generators, the appropriate modeling of wind farms is essential for transmission system operators to analyze the best options of transmission grid reinforcements as well as to evaluate the wind power impact on reliability and security of supply. With the high excepted penetration of wind power into the power system a simultaneous loss of Wind Farm generation will put at risk power system security and reliability. Therefore, the main wind grid code requirements concern the fault ride through capability and frequency operation range of wind turbines. In case of grid faults wind turbines have to supply a definite reactive power depending on the instantaneous voltage and to return quickly to normal operation.

Keywords: Power System transients, PSS/E dynamic simulationDouble-fed Induction Generator.

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14371 Monitoring of Belt-Drive Defects Using the Vibration Signals and Simulation Models

Authors: A. Nabhan, Mohamed R. El-Sharkawy, A. Rashed

Abstract:

The main aim of this paper is to dedicate the belt drive system faults like cogs missing, misalignment and belt worm using vibration analysis technique. Experimentally, the belt drive test-rig is equipped to measure vibrations signals under different operating conditions. Finite element 3D model of belt drive system is created and vibration response analyzed using commercial finite element software ABAQUS/CAE.  Root mean square (RMS) and Crest Factor will serve as indicators of average amplitude of envelope analysis signals. The vibration signals pattern obtained from the simulation model and experimental data have the same characteristics. It can be concluded that each case of the RMS is more effective in detecting the defect for acceleration response. While Crest Factor parameter has a response with the displacement and velocity of vibration signals. Also it can be noticed that the model has difficulty in completing the solution when the misalignment angle is higher than 1 degree.

Keywords: Simulation model, misalignment, cogs missing and vibration analysis.

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14370 Enhancement of Thermal Performance of Latent Heat Solar Storage System

Authors: Rishindra M. Sarviya, Ashish Agrawal

Abstract:

Solar energy is available abundantly in the world, but it is not continuous and its intensity also varies with time. Due to above reason the acceptability and reliability of solar based thermal system is lower than conventional systems. A properly designed heat storage system increases the reliability of solar thermal systems by bridging the gap between the energy demand and availability. In the present work, two dimensional numerical simulation of the melting of heat storage material is presented in the horizontal annulus of double pipe latent heat storage system. Longitudinal fins were used as a thermal conductivity enhancement. Paraffin wax was used as a heat-storage or phase change material (PCM). Constant wall temperature is applied to heat transfer tube. Presented two-dimensional numerical analysis shows the movement of melting front in the finned cylindrical annulus for analyzing the thermal behavior of the system during melting.

Keywords: Latent heat, numerical study, phase change material, solar energy.

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14369 Matlab/Simulink-Based Transient Stability Analysis Of A Sensorless Synchronous Reluctance Motor

Authors: Mostafa.A. Fellani, Daw .E. Abaid

Abstract:

This paper deals with stability analysis for synchronous reluctance motors drive. Special attention is paid to the transient performance with variations in motor's parameters such as Ld and Rs. A study of the dynamic control using d-q model is presented first in order to clarify the stability of the motor drive system. Based on the experimental parameters of the synchronous reluctance motor, this paper gives some simulation results using MATLAB/SIMULINK software packages. It is concluded that the motor parameters, especially Ld, affect the estimator stability and hence the whole drive system.

Keywords: Dynamic Simulation, MATLAB, PWM-inverter, Reluctance Machine, Sensorless Control

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14368 Direct Transient Stability Assessment of Stressed Power Systems

Authors: E. Popov, N. Yorino, Y. Zoka, Y. Sasaki, H. Sugihara

Abstract:

This paper discusses the performance of critical trajectory method (CTrj) for power system transient stability analysis under various loading settings and heavy fault condition. The method obtains Controlling Unstable Equilibrium Point (CUEP) which is essential for estimation of power system stability margins. The CUEP is computed by applying the CTrjto the boundary controlling unstable equilibrium point (BCU) method. The Proposed method computes a trajectory on the stability boundary that starts from the exit point and reaches CUEP under certain assumptions. The robustness and effectiveness of the method are demonstrated via six power system models and five loading conditions. As benchmark is used conventional simulation method whereas the performance is compared with and BCU Shadowing method.

Keywords: Power system, Transient stability, Critical trajectory method, Energy function method.

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14367 Data and Control Flow Analysis of VDMµ Specifications

Authors: Mubina Nazmeen, Iram Rubab

Abstract:

Formal Specification languages are being widely used for system specification and testing. Highly critical systems such as real time systems, avionics, and medical systems are represented using Formal specification languages. Formal specifications based testing is mostly performed using black box testing approaches thus testing only the set of inputs and outputs of the system. The formal specification language such as VDMµ can be used for white box testing as they provide enough constructs as any other high level programming language. In this work, we perform data and control flow analysis of VDMµ class specifications. The proposed work is discussed with an example of SavingAccount.

Keywords: VDM-SL, VDMµ, data flow graph, control flowgraph, testing, formal specification.

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14366 Development of a Hamster Knowledge System Based On Android Application

Authors: Satien Janpla, Thanawan Boonpuck, Pattarapan Roonrakwit 

Abstract:

In this paper, we present a hamster knowledge system based on android application. The objective of this system is to advice user to upkeep and feed hamsters based on mobile application. We describe the design approaches and functional components of this system. The system was developed based on knowledge based of hamster experts. The results were divided by the research purposes into 2 parts: developing the mobile application for advice users and testing and evaluating the system. Black box technique was used to evaluate application performances and questionnaires were applied to measure user satisfaction with system usability by specialists and users.

Keywords: Hamster knowledge, android application, black box.

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14365 Generalized Differential Quadrature Nonlinear Consolidation Analysis of Clay Layer with Time-Varied Drainage Conditions

Authors: A. Bahmanikashkouli, O.R. Bahadori Nezhad

Abstract:

In this article, the phenomenon of nonlinear consolidation in saturated and homogeneous clay layer is studied. Considering time-varied drainage model, the excess pore water pressure in the layer depth is calculated. The Generalized Differential Quadrature (GDQ) method is used for the modeling and numerical analysis. For the purpose of analysis, first the domain of independent variables (i.e., time and clay layer depth) is discretized by the Chebyshev-Gauss-Lobatto series and then the nonlinear system of equations obtained from the GDQ method is solved by means of the Newton-Raphson approach. The obtained results indicate that the Generalized Differential Quadrature method, in addition to being simple to apply, enjoys a very high accuracy in the calculation of excess pore water pressure.

Keywords: Generalized Differential Quadrature method, Nonlinear consolidation, Nonlinear system of equations, Time-varied drainage

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14364 Development of Performance Indicators in Operational Level for Pre-hospital EMS in Thailand

Authors: Napisporn Memongkol, Runchana Sinthavalai, Nattapong Seneeratanaprayune Weerawat Ounsaneha, Chanisada Choosuk

Abstract:

The objective of this research is to develop the performance indicators (PIs) in operational level for the Pre-hospital Emergency Medical Service (EMS) system employing in Thailand. This research started with ascertaining the current pre-hospital care system. The team analyzed the strategies of Narerthorn, a government unit under the ministry of public health, and the existing PIs of the pre-hospital care. Afterwards, the current National Strategic Plan of EMS development (2008-2012) of the Emergency Medical Institute of Thailand (EMIT) was considered using strategic analysis to developed Strategy Map (SM) and identified the Success Factors (SFs). The analysis results from strategy map and SFs were used to develop the Performance Indicators (PIs). To verify the set of PIs, the team has interviewed with the relevant practitioners for the possibilities to implement the PIs. To this paper, it was to ascertain that all the developed PIs support the objectives of the strategic plan. Nevertheless, the results showed that the operational level PIs suited only with the first dimension of National Strategic Plan (infrastructure and information technology development). Besides, the SF was the infrastructure development (to contribute the EMS system to people throughout with standard and efficiency both in normally and disaster conditions). Finally, twenty-nine indicators were developed from the analysis results of SM and SFs.

Keywords: Emergency Medical Service, Performance Indicator, Success Factor, Thailand

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14363 Comparison of Machine Learning Models for the Prediction of System Marginal Price of Greek Energy Market

Authors: Ioannis P. Panapakidis, Marios N. Moschakis

Abstract:

The Greek Energy Market is structured as a mandatory pool where the producers make their bid offers in day-ahead basis. The System Operator solves an optimization routine aiming at the minimization of the cost of produced electricity. The solution of the optimization problem leads to the calculation of the System Marginal Price (SMP). Accurate forecasts of the SMP can lead to increased profits and more efficient portfolio management from the producer`s perspective. Aim of this study is to provide a comparative analysis of various machine learning models such as artificial neural networks and neuro-fuzzy models for the prediction of the SMP of the Greek market. Machine learning algorithms are favored in predictions problems since they can capture and simulate the volatilities of complex time series.

Keywords: Deregulated energy market, forecasting, machine learning, system marginal price, energy efficiency and quality.

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