Search results for: Data Aggregation

Authors: Liu Ning, Zhong Chongquan, Teng Hongfei

Abstract:

EPA (Ethernet for Plant Automation) resolves the nondeterministic problem of standard Ethernet and accomplishes real-time communication by means of micro-segment topology and deterministic scheduling mechanism. This paper studies the real-time performance of EPA periodic data transmission from theoretical and experimental perspective. By analyzing information transmission characteristics and EPA deterministic scheduling mechanism, 5 indicators including delivery time, time synchronization accuracy, data-sending time offset accuracy, utilization percentage of configured timeslice and non-RTE bandwidth that can be used to specify the real-time performance of EPA periodic data transmission are presented and investigated. On this basis, the test principles and test methods of the indicators are respectively studied and some formulas for real-time performance of EPA system are derived. Furthermore, an experiment platform is developed to test the indicators of EPA periodic data transmission in a micro-segment. According to the analysis and the experiment, the methods to improve the real-time performance of EPA periodic data transmission including optimizing network structure, studying self-adaptive adjustment method of timeslice and providing data-sending time offset accuracy for configuration are proposed.

Keywords: EPA system, Industrial Ethernet, Periodic data, Real-time performance

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Authors: Qi Xiu, Hiromu Hota, Yohsuke Ishii, Takuya Oda

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Recently, collectable manufacturing data are rapidly increasing. On the other hand, mega recall is getting serious as a social problem. Under such circumstances, there are increasing needs for preventing mega recalls by defect analysis such as root cause analysis and abnormal detection utilizing manufacturing data. However, the time to classify strings in manufacturing data by traditional method is too long to meet requirement of quick defect analysis. Therefore, we present String Length Distribution Classification method (SLDC) to correctly classify strings in a short time. This method learns character features, especially string length distribution from Product ID, Machine ID in BOM and asset list. By applying the proposal to strings in actual manufacturing data, we verified that the classification time of strings can be reduced by 80%. As a result, it can be estimated that the requirement of quick defect analysis can be fulfilled.

Keywords: Data quality, feature selection, probability distribution, string classification, string length.

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Authors: Junghoon Lee, Gyung-Leen Park, Ho-Young Kwak, Cheol Min Kim

Abstract:

This paper presents the design and implements the prototype of an intelligent data processing framework in ubiquitous sensor networks. Much focus is put on how to handle the sensor data stream as well as the interoperability between the low-level sensor data and application clients. Our framework first addresses systematic middleware which mitigates the interaction between the application layer and low-level sensors, for the sake of analyzing a great volume of sensor data by filtering and integrating to create value-added context information. Then, an agent-based architecture is proposed for real-time data distribution to efficiently forward a specific event to the appropriate application registered in the directory service via the open interface. The prototype implementation demonstrates that our framework can host a sophisticated application on the ubiquitous sensor network and it can autonomously evolve to new middleware, taking advantages of promising technologies such as software agents, XML, cloud computing, and the like.

Keywords: sensor network, intelligent farm, middleware, event detection

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Authors: S. Impey, D. Berry, S. Furtado, M. Galvin, L. Grogan, O. Hardiman, L. Hederman, M. Heverin, V. Wade, L. Douris, D. O'Sullivan, G. Stephens

Abstract:

Healthcare is a knowledge-rich environment. This knowledge, while valuable, is not always accessible outside the borders of individual clinics. This research aims to address part of this problem (at a study site) by constructing a maximal data set (knowledge artefact) for motor neurone disease (MND). This data set is proposed as an initial knowledge base for a concurrent project to develop an MND patient data platform. It represents the domain knowledge at the study site for the duration of the research (12 months). A knowledge elicitation method was also developed from the lessons learned during this process - the WICKED method. WICKED is an anagram of the words: eliciting and confirming data, information, knowledge, wisdom. But it is also a reference to the concept of wicked problems, which are complex and challenging, as is eliciting expert knowledge. The method was evaluated at a second site, and benefits and limitations were noted. Benefits include that the method provided a systematic way to manage data, information, knowledge and wisdom (DIKW) from various sources, including healthcare specialists and existing data sets. Limitations surrounded the time required and how the data set produced only represents DIKW known during the research period. Future work is underway to address these limitations.

Keywords: Healthcare, knowledge acquisition, maximal data sets, action design science.

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Authors: Salam Khalifa, Naveed Ahmed

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We present a new method to reconstruct a temporally coherent 3D animation from single or multi-view RGB-D video data using unbiased feature point sampling. Given RGB-D video data, in form of a 3D point cloud sequence, our method first extracts feature points using both color and depth information. In the subsequent steps, these feature points are used to match two 3D point clouds in consecutive frames independent of their resolution. Our new motion vectors based dynamic alignement method then fully reconstruct a spatio-temporally coherent 3D animation. We perform extensive quantitative validation using novel error functions to analyze the results. We show that despite the limiting factors of temporal and spatial noise associated to RGB-D data, it is possible to extract temporal coherence to faithfully reconstruct a temporally coherent 3D animation from RGB-D video data.

Keywords: 3D video, 3D animation, RGB-D video, Temporally Coherent 3D Animation.

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Authors: Zhiguo Yang, Xiangan Yue, Minglu Shao, Yang Yue, Tianqi Yue

Abstract:

In low permeability reservoirs, the reservoir pore throat is small and the micro heterogeneity is prominent. Conventional microsphere profile control agents generally have good injectability but poor plugging effect; however, profile control agents with good plugging effect generally have poor injectability, which makes it difficult for agent to realize deep profile control of reservoir. To solve this problem, styrene and acrylamide were used as monomers in the laboratory. Emulsion polymerization was used to prepare the Controllable Self-Aggregating Colloidal Particle (CSA), which was rich in amide group. The CSA microsphere dispersion solution with a particle diameter smaller than the pore throat diameter was injected into the reservoir to ensure that the profile control agent had good inject ability. After dispersing the CSA microsphere to the deep part of the reservoir, the CSA microspheres dispersed in static for a certain period of time will self-aggregate into large-sized particle clusters to achieve plugging of hypertonic channels. The CSA microsphere has the characteristics of low expansion and avoids shear fracture in the process of migration. It can be observed by transmission electron microscope that CSA microspheres still maintain regular and uniform spherical and core-shell heterogeneous structure after aging at 100 ºC for 35 days, and CSA microspheres have good thermal stability. The results of bottle test showed that with the increase of cation concentration, the aggregation time of CSA microspheres gradually shortened, and the influence of divalent cations was greater than that of monovalent ions. Physical simulation experiments show that CSA microspheres have good injectability, and the aggregated CSA particle clusters can produce effective plugging and migrate to the deep part of the reservoir for profile control.

Keywords: Heterogeneous reservoir, deep profile control, emulsion polymerization, colloidal particles, plugging characteristic.

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Authors: Naoki Yamamoto, Jun Murakami, Chiharu Okuma, Yutaro Shigeto, Satoko Saito, Takashi Izumi, Nozomi Hayashida

Abstract:

Multi-dimensional principal component analysis (PCA) is the extension of the PCA, which is used widely as the dimensionality reduction technique in multivariate data analysis, to handle multi-dimensional data. To calculate the PCA the singular value decomposition (SVD) is commonly employed by the reason of its numerical stability. The multi-dimensional PCA can be calculated by using the higher-order SVD (HOSVD), which is proposed by Lathauwer et al., similarly with the case of ordinary PCA. In this paper, we apply the multi-dimensional PCA to the multi-dimensional medical data including the functional independence measure (FIM) score, and describe the results of experimental analysis.

Keywords: multi-dimensional principal component analysis, higher-order SVD (HOSVD), functional independence measure (FIM), medical data, tensor decomposition

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Authors: M. Graus, K. Westhoff, X. Xu

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The climate change causes a change in all aspects of society. While the expansion of renewable energies proceeds, industry could not be convinced based on general studies about the potential of demand side management to reinforce smart grid considerations in their operational business. In this article, a procedure model for a case-specific data-driven decision support for industrial energy management based on a holistic data analytics approach is presented. The model is executed on the example of the strategic decision problem, to integrate the aspect of renewable energies into industrial energy management. This question is induced due to considerations of changing the electricity contract model from a standard rate to volatile energy prices corresponding to the energy spot market which is increasingly more affected by renewable energies. The procedure model corresponds to a data analytics process consisting on a data model, analysis, simulation and optimization step. This procedure will help to quantify the potentials of sustainable production concepts based on the data from a factory. The model is validated with data from a printer in analogy to a simple production machine. The overall goal is to establish smart grid principles for industry via the transformation from knowledge-driven to data-driven decisions within manufacturing companies.

Keywords: Data analytics, green production, industrial energy management, optimization, renewable energies, simulation.

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Authors: Juntae Kim, Jaeyoung Park, Kyoungkun Lee, Jong Tae Kim

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The H.264/AVC standard is a highly efficient video codec providing high-quality videos at low bit-rates. As employing advanced techniques, the computational complexity has been increased. The complexity brings about the major problem in the implementation of a real-time encoder and decoder. Parallelism is the one of approaches which can be implemented by multi-core system. We analyze macroblock-level parallelism which ensures the same bit rate with high concurrency of processors. In order to reduce the encoding time, dynamic data partition based on macroblock region is proposed. The data partition has the advantages in load balancing and data communication overhead. Using the data partition, the encoder obtains more than 3.59x speed-up on a four-processor system. This work can be applied to other multimedia processing applications.

Keywords: H.264/AVC, video coding, thread-level parallelism, OpenMP, multimedia

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Authors: Hina Kausher, Sangita Srivastava

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In India, there is a lack of standard, systematic sizing approach for producing readymade garments. Garments manufacturing companies use their own created size tables by modifying international sizing charts of ready-made garments. The purpose of this study is to tabulate the anthropometric data which cover the variety of figure proportions in both height and girth. 3,000 data have been collected by an anthropometric survey undertaken over females between the ages of 16 to 80 years from the some states of India to produce the sizing system suitable for clothing manufacture and retailing. The data are used for the statistical analysis of body measurements, the formulation of sizing systems and body measurements tables. Factor analysis technique is used to filter the control body dimensions from the large number of variables. Decision tree-based data mining is used to cluster the data. The standard and structured sizing system can facilitate pattern grading and garment production. Moreover, it can exceed buying ratios and upgrade size allocations to retail segments.

Keywords: Anthropometric data, data mining, decision tree, garments manufacturing, ready-made garments, sizing systems.

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Authors: Huynh Quyet Thang, Vo Sy Nam

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Schema matching plays a key role in many different applications, such as schema integration, data integration, data warehousing, data transformation, E-commerce, peer-to-peer data management, ontology matching and integration, semantic Web, semantic query processing, etc. Manual matching is expensive and error-prone, so it is therefore important to develop techniques to automate the schema matching process. In this paper, we present a solution for XML schema automated matching problem which produces semantic mappings between corresponding schema elements of given source and target schemas. This solution contributed in solving more comprehensively and efficiently XML schema automated matching problem. Our solution based on combining linguistic similarity, data type compatibility and structural similarity of XML schema elements. After describing our solution, we present experimental results that demonstrate the effectiveness of this approach.

Keywords: XML Schema, Schema Matching, SemanticMatching, Automatic XML Schema Matching.

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Authors: A. Habibizad Navin, A. Sadighi, M. Naghian Fesharaki, M. Mirnia, M. Teshnelab, R. Keshmiri

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This paper presents a new data oriented model of image. Then a representation of it, ADBT, is introduced. The ability of ADBT is clustering, segmentation, measuring similarity of images etc, with desired precision and corresponding speed.

Keywords: Data oriented modelling, image, clustering, segmentation, classification, ADBT and image processing.

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Authors: Neelima Gupta, Seema Aggarwal

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Most of the biclustering/projected clustering algorithms are based either on the Euclidean distance or correlation coefficient which capture only linear relationships. However, in many applications, like gene expression data and word-document data, non linear relationships may exist between the objects. Mutual Information between two variables provides a more general criterion to investigate dependencies amongst variables. In this paper, we improve upon our previous algorithm that uses mutual information for biclustering in terms of computation time and also the type of clusters identified. The algorithm is able to find biclusters with mixed relationships and is faster than the previous one. To the best of our knowledge, none of the other existing algorithms for biclustering have used mutual information as a similarity measure. We present the experimental results on synthetic data as well as on the yeast expression data. Biclusters on the yeast data were found to be biologically and statistically significant using GO Tool Box and FuncAssociate.

Keywords: Biclustering, mutual information.

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Authors: T. Aydin, M. F. Alaeddinoglu

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People, throughout the history, have made estimates and inferences about the future by using their past experiences. Developing information technologies and the improvements in the database management systems make it possible to extract useful information from knowledge in hand for the strategic decisions. Therefore, different methods have been developed. Data mining by association rules learning is one of such methods. Apriori algorithm, one of the well-known association rules learning algorithms, is not commonly used in spatio-temporal data sets. However, it is possible to embed time and space features into the data sets and make Apriori algorithm a suitable data mining technique for learning spatiotemporal association rules. Lake Van, the largest lake of Turkey, is a closed basin. This feature causes the volume of the lake to increase or decrease as a result of change in water amount it holds. In this study, evaporation, humidity, lake altitude, amount of rainfall and temperature parameters recorded in Lake Van region throughout the years are used by the Apriori algorithm and a spatio-temporal data mining application is developed to identify overflows and newlyformed soil regions (underflows) occurring in the coastal parts of Lake Van. Identifying possible reasons of overflows and underflows may be used to alert the experts to take precautions and make the necessary investments.

Keywords: Apriori algorithm, association rules, data mining, spatio-temporal data.

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Authors: Sushma Satpute, Vaishali Katkar, Nilesh Sahare

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XML files contain data which is in well formatted manner. By studying the format or semantics of the grammar it will be helpful for fast retrieval of the data. There are many algorithms which describes about searching the data from XML files. There are no. of approaches which uses data structure or are related to the contents of the document. In these cases user must know about the structure of the document and information retrieval techniques using NLPs is related to content of the document. Hence the result may be irrelevant or not so successful and may take more time to search.. This paper presents fast XML retrieval techniques by using new indexing technique and the concept of RXML. When indexing an XML document, the system takes into account both the document content and the document structure and assigns the value to each tag from file. To query the system, a user is not constrained about fixed format of query.

Keywords: XML Retrieval, Indexed Search, Information Retrieval.

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Authors: Joel Arrais, João E. Pereira, João Fernandes, José Luís Oliveira

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The scientific achievements coming from molecular biology depend greatly on the capability of computational applications to analyze the laboratorial results. A comprehensive analysis of an experiment requires typically the simultaneous study of the obtained dataset with data that is available in several distinct public databases. Nevertheless, developing a centralized access to these distributed databases rises up a set of challenges such as: what is the best integration strategy, how to solve nomenclature clashes, how to solve database overlapping data and how to deal with huge datasets. In this paper we present GeNS, a system that uses a simple and yet innovative approach to address several biological data integration issues. Compared with existing systems, the main advantages of GeNS are related to its maintenance simplicity and to its coverage and scalability, in terms of number of supported databases and data types. To support our claims we present the current use of GeNS in two concrete applications. GeNS currently contains more than 140 million of biological relations and it can be publicly downloaded or remotely access through SOAP web services.

Keywords: Data integration, biological databases

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Authors: C. Kalamani, K. Paramasivam

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Test data compression is an efficient method for reducing the test application cost. The problem of reducing test data has been addressed by researchers in three different aspects: Test Data Compression, Built-in-Self-Test (BIST) and Test set compaction. The latter two methods are capable of enhancing fault coverage with cost of hardware overhead. The drawback of the conventional methods is that they are capable of reducing the test storage and test power but when test data have redundant length of runs, no additional compression method is followed. This paper presents a modified Run Length Coding (RLC) technique with Multilevel Selective Huffman Coding (MLSHC) technique to reduce test data volume, test pattern delivery time and power dissipation in scan test applications where redundant length of runs is encountered then the preceding run symbol is replaced with tiny codeword. Experimental results show that the presented method not only improves the test data compression but also reduces the overall test data volume compared to recent schemes. Experiments for the six largest ISCAS-98 benchmarks show that our method outperforms most known techniques.

Keywords: Modified run length coding, multilevel selective Huffman coding, built-in-self-test modified selective Huffman coding, automatic test equipment.

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Authors: N. Samarinas, C. Evangelides, C. Vrekos

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The aim of this paper is the comparison of three different methods, in order to produce fuzzy tolerance relations for rainfall data classification. More specifically, the three methods are correlation coefficient, cosine amplitude and max-min method. The data were obtained from seven rainfall stations in the region of central Greece and refers to 20-year time series of monthly rainfall height average. Three methods were used to express these data as a fuzzy relation. This specific fuzzy tolerance relation is reformed into an equivalence relation with max-min composition for all three methods. From the equivalence relation, the rainfall stations were categorized and classified according to the degree of confidence. The classification shows the similarities among the rainfall stations. Stations with high similarity can be utilized in water resource management scenarios interchangeably or to augment data from one to another. Due to the complexity of calculations, it is important to find out which of the methods is computationally simpler and needs fewer compositions in order to give reliable results.

Keywords: Classification, fuzzy logic, tolerance relations, rainfall data.

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Authors: Shun Hattori

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In recent years, many researches to mine the exploding Web world, especially User Generated Content (UGC) such as weblogs, for knowledge about various phenomena and events in the physical world have been done actively, and also Web services with the Web-mined knowledge have begun to be developed for the public. However, there are few detailed investigations on how accurately Web-mined data reflect physical-world data. It must be problematic to idolatrously utilize the Web-mined data in public Web services without ensuring their accuracy sufficiently. Therefore, this paper introduces the simplest Web Sensor and spatiotemporallynormalized Web Sensor to extract spatiotemporal data about a target phenomenon from weblogs searched by keyword(s) representing the target phenomenon, and tries to validate the potential and reliability of the Web-sensed spatiotemporal data by four kinds of granularity analyses of coefficient correlation with temperature, rainfall, snowfall, and earthquake statistics per day by region of Japan Meteorological Agency as physical-world data: spatial granularity (region-s population density), temporal granularity (time period, e.g., per day vs. per week), representation granularity (e.g., “rain" vs. “heavy rain"), and media granularity (weblogs vs. microblogs such as Tweets).

Keywords: Granularity analysis, knowledge extraction, spatiotemporal data mining, Web credibility, Web mining, Web sensor.

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Authors: Zhang Yan, Yu Bin

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Principle component analysis is often combined with the state-of-art classification algorithms to recognize human faces. However, principle component analysis can only capture these features contributing to the global characteristics of data because it is a global feature selection algorithm. It misses those features contributing to the local characteristics of data because each principal component only contains some levels of global characteristics of data. In this study, we present a novel face recognition approach using non-negative principal component analysis which is added with the constraint of non-negative to improve data locality and contribute to elucidating latent data structures. Experiments are performed on the Cambridge ORL face database. We demonstrate the strong performances of the algorithm in recognizing human faces in comparison with PCA and NREMF approaches.

Keywords: classification, face recognition, non-negativeprinciple component analysis (NPCA)

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Authors: Bala Dhandayuthapani Veerasamy

Abstract:

Parallel programming models exist as an abstraction of hardware and memory architectures. There are several parallel programming models in commonly use; they are shared memory model, thread model, message passing model, data parallel model, hybrid model, Flynn-s models, embarrassingly parallel computations model, pipelined computations model. These models are not specific to a particular type of machine or memory architecture. This paper expresses the model program for concurrent approach to data parallel model through java programming.

Keywords: Concurrent, Data Parallel, JDK, Parallel, Thread

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Authors: Nuanpan Nangsue

Abstract:

Ratio and regression type estimators have been used by previous authors to estimate a population mean for the principal variable from samples in which both auxiliary x and principal y variable data are available. However, missing data are a common problem in statistical analyses with real data. Ratio and regression type estimators have also been used for imputing values of missing y data. In this paper, six new ratio and regression type estimators are proposed for imputing values for any missing y data and estimating a population mean for y from samples with missing x and/or y data. A simulation study has been conducted to compare the six ratio and regression type estimators with a previous estimator of Rueda. Two population sizes N = 1,000 and 5,000 have been considered with sample sizes of 10% and 30% and with correlation coefficients between population variables X and Y of 0.5 and 0.8. In the simulations, 10 and 40 percent of sample y values and 10 and 40 percent of sample x values were randomly designated as missing. The new ratio and regression type estimators give similar mean absolute percentage errors that are smaller than the Rueda estimator for all cases. The new estimators give a large reduction in errors for the case of 40% missing y values and sampling fraction of 30%.

Keywords: Auxiliary variable, missing data, ratio and regression type estimators.

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Authors: Tatjana Eitrich, Bruno Lang

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This work deals with aspects of support vector learning for large-scale data mining tasks. Based on a decomposition algorithm that can be run in serial and parallel mode we introduce a data transformation that allows for the usage of an expensive generalized kernel without additional costs. In order to speed up the decomposition algorithm we analyze the problem of working set selection for large data sets and analyze the influence of the working set sizes onto the scalability of the parallel decomposition scheme. Our modifications and settings lead to improvement of support vector learning performance and thus allow using extensive parameter search methods to optimize classification accuracy.

Keywords: Support Vector Machines, Shared Memory Parallel Computing, Large Data

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Authors: Huaizhong Li, C.Peng Lam

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State-based testing is frequently used in software testing. Test data generation is one of the key issues in software testing. A properly generated test suite may not only locate the errors in a software system, but also help in reducing the high cost associated with software testing. It is often desired that test data in the form of test sequences within a test suite can be automatically generated to achieve required test coverage. This paper proposes an Ant Colony Optimization approach to test data generation for the state-based software testing.

Keywords: Software testing, ant colony optimization, UML.

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Authors: Bastian Haarmann, Lukas Sikorski

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In this paper, we introduce an NLG application for the automatic creation of ready-to-publish texts from big data. The resulting fully automatic generated news stories have a high resemblance to the style in which the human writer would draw up such a story. Topics include soccer games, stock exchange market reports, and weather forecasts. Each generated text is unique. Readyto-publish stories written by a computer application can help humans to quickly grasp the outcomes of big data analyses, save timeconsuming pre-formulations for journalists and cater to rather small audiences by offering stories that would otherwise not exist. 

Keywords: Big data, natural language generation, publishing, robotic journalism.

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Authors: Sae-Rom Pak, Seung Hwan Park, Jeong Ho Cho, Daewoong An, Cheong-Sool Park, Jun Seok Kim, Jun-Geol Baek

Abstract:

It is important to predict yield in semiconductor test process in order to increase yield. In this study, yield prediction means finding out defective die, wafer or lot effectively. Semiconductor test process consists of some test steps and each test includes various test items. In other world, test data has a big and complicated characteristic. It also is disproportionably distributed as the number of data belonging to FAIL class is extremely low. For yield prediction, general data mining techniques have a limitation without any data preprocessing due to eigen properties of test data. Therefore, this study proposes an under-sampling method using support vector machine (SVM) to eliminate an imbalanced characteristic. For evaluating a performance, randomly under-sampling method is compared with the proposed method using actual semiconductor test data. As a result, sampling method using SVM is effective in generating robust model for yield prediction.

Keywords: Yield Prediction, Semiconductor Test Process, Support Vector Machine, Under Sampling

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Authors: R. AliMohammadzadeh, M. Rahgozar, A. Zarnani

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The inherent flexibilities of XML in both structure and semantics makes mining from XML data a complex task with more challenges compared to traditional association rule mining in relational databases. In this paper, we propose a new model for the effective extraction of generalized association rules form a XML document collection. We directly use frequent subtree mining techniques in the discovery process and do not ignore the tree structure of data in the final rules. The frequent subtrees based on the user provided support are split to complement subtrees to form the rules. We explain our model within multi-steps from data preparation to rule generation.

Keywords: XML, Data Mining, Association Rule Mining.

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Authors: I. Severin, M. Caramihai, R. El Abdi, M. Poulain, A. Avadanii

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In order to assess optical fiber reliability in different environmental and stress conditions series of testing are performed simulating overlapping of chemical and mechanical controlled varying factors. Each series of testing may be compared using statistical processing: i.e. Weibull plots. Due to the numerous data to treat, a software application has appeared useful to interpret selected series of experiments in function of envisaged factors. The current paper presents a software application used in the storage, modelling and interpretation of experimental data gathered from optical fibre testing. The present paper strictly deals with the software part of the project (regarding the modelling, storage and processing of user supplied data).

Keywords: Optical fibres, computer aided analysis, data models, data processing, graphical user interfaces.

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Authors: Ava Dodd, Jonathan Adams

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The purpose of this study is to explore the characteristics of developing a machine learning application using synthetic data. The study is structured to develop the application for the purpose of deploying the computer vision model. The findings discuss the realities of attempting to develop a computer vision model for practical purpose, and detail the processes, tools and techniques that were used to meet accuracy requirements. The research reveals that synthetic data represent another variable that can be adjusted to improve the performance of a computer vision model. Further, a suite of tools and tuning recommendations are provided.

Keywords: computer vision, machine learning, synthetic data, YOLOv4

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Authors: Ichihan Tai, Bill Olson, Paul Blessner

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Traditional early warning systems that alarm against crisis are generally based on structured or numerical data; therefore, a system that can make predictions based on unstructured textual data, an uncorrelated data source, is a great complement to the traditional early warning systems. The Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE) Volatility Index (VIX), commonly referred to as the fear index, measures the cost of insurance against market crash, and spikes in the event of crisis. In this study, news data is consumed for prediction of whether there will be a market-wide crisis by predicting the movement of the fear index, and the historical references to similar events are presented in an unsupervised manner. Topic modeling-based prediction and representation are made based on daily news data between 1990 and 2015 from The Wall Street Journal against VIX index data from CBOE.

Keywords: Early Warning System, Knowledge Management, Topic Modeling, Market Prediction.

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