Search results for: technology forecasting

Authors: Rebecca Angeles

Abstract:

Radio frequency identification (RFID) has been recognized as a key enabler of efficient and effective supply chains. Recently, with increasing concern for environmental sustainability, researchers and practitioners have been exploring the role of RFID in supporting “green supply chains.” This qualitative study uses the technology-organization-environment framework of Tornatzky and Fleischer, and Zuboff’s concepts of automating-informating-transformating in analyzing two case studies involving RFID use: the recycling of Hewlett Packard inkjet printers and the garbage and recycling program of the City of Grand Rapids, Michigan.

Keywords: Environmental sustainability, green supply chain management, radio frequency identification, technology-organization-environment framework, Zuboff’automate-informate-transformate concepts.

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Authors: Shafiq ur Rehman, Jane Coughlan

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The work we have accomplished in implementing a Mobile Payment mechanism that enables customers to pay bills for groceries and other purchased items in a store through the means of a mobile phone, specifically a Smartphone. The mode of transaction, as far as communication between the customer-s handset and the merchant-s POS is concerned, we have decided upon NFC (Near Field Communication). This is due to the fact that for the most part, Pakistani Smartphone users have handsets that have Android mobile OS, which supports the aforementioned platform, IOS, on the other hand does not.

Keywords: Usability, mobile payment system, NFC technology, payment process, customer.

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Authors: S. Alfalah, J. Falah, T. Alfalah, M. Elfalah, O. Falah

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The field of education is an ever-evolving area constantly enriched by newly discovered techniques provided by active research in all areas of technologies. The recent years have witnessed the introduction of a number of promising technologies and applications to enhance the teaching and learning experience. Virtual Reality (VR) applications are considered one of the evolving methods that have contributed to enhancing education in many fields. VR creates an artificial environment, using computer hardware and software, which is similar to the real world. This simulation provides a solution to improve the delivery of materials, which facilitates the teaching process by providing a useful aid to instructors, and enhances the learning experience by providing a beneficial learning aid. In order to assure future utilization of such systems, students’ perceptions were examined toward utilizing VR as an educational tool in the Faculty of Information Technology (IT) in The University of Jordan. A questionnaire was administered to IT undergraduates investigating students’ opinions about the potential opportunities that VR technology could offer and its implications as learning and teaching aid. The results confirmed the end users’ willingness to adopt VR systems as a learning aid. The result of this research forms a solid base for investing in a VR system for IT education.

Keywords: Education, information, technology, virtual reality.

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Authors: Yuzhi Cai

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In this talk, we introduce a newly developed quantile function model that can be used for estimating conditional distributions of financial returns and for obtaining multi-step ahead out-of-sample predictive distributions of financial returns. Since we forecast the whole conditional distributions, any predictive quantity of interest about the future financial returns can be obtained simply as a by-product of the method. We also show an application of the model to the daily closing prices of Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) series over the period from 2 January 2004 - 8 October 2010. We obtained the predictive distributions up to 15 days ahead for the DJIA returns, which were further compared with the actually observed returns and those predicted from an AR-GARCH model. The results show that the new model can capture the main features of financial returns and provide a better fitted model together with improved mean forecasts compared with conventional methods. We hope this talk will help audience to see that this new model has the potential to be very useful in practice.

Keywords: DJIA, Financial returns, predictive distribution, quantile function model.

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Authors: Hema Sandhya Jagarlamudi, Mousumi Saha, Pavan Kumar Jagarlamudi

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The use of Quantum dots is a promising emerging Technology for implementing digital system at the nano level. It is effecient for attractive features such as faster speed , smaller size and low power consumption than transistor technology. In this paper, various Combinational and sequential logical structures - HALF ADDER, SR Latch and Flip-Flop, D Flip-Flop preceding NAND, NOR, XOR,XNOR are discussed based on QCA design, with comparatively less number of cells and area. By applying these layouts, the hardware requirements for a QCA design can be reduced. These structures are designed and simulated using QCA Designer Tool. By taking full advantage of the unique features of this technology, we are able to create complete circuits on a single layer of QCA. Such Devices are expected to function with ultra low power Consumption and very high speeds.

Keywords: QCA, QCA Designer, Clock, Majority Gate

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Authors: S. Chokri

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Load modeling is one of the central functions in power systems operations. Electricity cannot be stored, which means that for electric utility, the estimate of the future demand is necessary in managing the production and purchasing in an economically reasonable way. A majority of the recently reported approaches are based on neural network. The attraction of the methods lies in the assumption that neural networks are able to learn properties of the load. However, the development of the methods is not finished, and the lack of comparative results on different model variations is a problem. This paper presents a new approach in order to predict the Tunisia daily peak load. The proposed method employs a computational intelligence scheme based on the Fuzzy neural network (FNN) and support vector regression (SVR). Experimental results obtained indicate that our proposed FNN-SVR technique gives significantly good prediction accuracy compared to some classical techniques.

Keywords: Neural network, Load Forecasting, Fuzzy inference, Machine learning, Fuzzy modeling and rule extraction, Support Vector Regression.

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Authors: Jalaluddin Abdul Malek, Mohd Asruladlyi Ibrahim, Zurinah Tahir

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This paper is to reveal developments in the areas of urban technology in Malaysia. Developments occur intend to add value intelligent city development to the ubiquitous city (U-city) or smart city. The phenomenon of change is called the development of post intelligent cities. U-City development discourse is seen from the perspective of the philosophy of the virtuous city organized by al-Farabi. The prosperity and perfection of a city is mainly caused by human personality factors, as well as its relationship with material and technological aspects of the city. The question is, to what extent to which human factors are taken into account in the concept of U-City as an added value to the intelligent city concept to realize the prosperity and perfection of the city? Previously, the intelligent city concept was developed based on global change and ICT movement, while the U-city added value to the development of intelligent cities and focused more on the development of information and communications technology (ICT). Value added is defined as the use of fiber optic technology that is wired to the use of wireless technology, such as wireless broadband. In this discourse, the debate on the concept of U-City is to the symbiosis between the U-City and the importance of local human e-participation (U-Society) for prosperity. In the context of virtuous city philosophy, it supports the thought of symbiosis so the concept of U-City can achieve sustainability, prosperity and perfection of the city.

Keywords: Smart city, ubiquitous city, U-Society, e-participation, prosperity.

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Authors: Norbert Burger, Thorsten Staake

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What influences microsystems (MEMS) and nanosystems (NEMS) innovation teams apart from technology complexity? Based on in-depth interviews with innovators, this research explores the key influences on innovation teams in the early phases of MEMS/NEMS. Projects are rare and may last from 5 to 10 years or more from idea to concept. As fundamental technology development in MEMS/NEMS is highly complex and interdisciplinary by involving expertise from different basic and engineering disciplines, R&D is rather a 'testing of ideas' with many uncertainties than a clearly structured process. The purpose of this study is to explore the innovation teams- environment and give specific insights for future management practices. The findings are grouped into three major areas: people, know-how and experience, and market. The results highlight the importance and differences of innovation teams- composition, transdisciplinary knowledge, project evaluation and management compared to the counterparts from new product development teams.

Keywords: Innovation teams, early phases, Microsystems, Nanosystems, technology developments.

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Authors: M. Erol Genevois, D. Celik, H. Z. Ulukan

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Automated Teller Machines (ATMs) can be considered among one of the most important service facilities in the banking industry. The investment in ATMs and the impact on the banking industry is growing steadily in every part of the world. The banks take into consideration many factors like safety, convenience, visibility, and cost in order to determine the optimum locations of ATMs. Today, ATMs are not only available in bank branches but also at retail locations. Another important factor is the cash management in ATMs. A cash demand model for every ATM is needed in order to have an efficient cash management system. This forecasting model is based on historical cash demand data which is highly related to the ATMs location. So, the location and the cash management problem should be considered together. This paper provides a general review on studies, efforts and development in ATMs location and cash management problem.

Keywords: ATM location problem, cash management problem, ATM cash replenishment problem, literature review in ATMs.

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Authors: Matthew O. Ikuabe, Ayodeji E. Oke, Clinton O. Aigbavboa, Douglas O. Aghimien, Tshepo P. Mokori

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The use of technological innovations has been touted to be beneficial in the delivery of construction projects. Particularly, Radio Frequency Identification (RFID) technology is widely regarded to be of immense advantage for the management of construction projects. This study focused on evaluating the barriers to the use of RFID technology for the delivery of construction projects. Using Gauteng Province in South Africa as the study area, questionnaire was used in eliciting responses from construction professionals which made up the population of the study. Retrieved data were analyzed using Mean Item Score and One-Sample t-test. Findings from the study showed that the most significant barriers to the deployment of RFID for construction project delivery are high cost and lack of awareness. Conclusively, the study made recommendations that would aid in the abatement of the barriers to the use of RFID technology for construction project delivery.

Keywords: Barriers, construction, project delivery, RFID.

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Authors: Ahmed Kayad Abdourazak, Abderafi Souad, Zejli Driss, Idriss Abdoulkader Ibrahim

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In this paper Artificial Neural Network (ANN) is used to predict the solar irradiation in Djibouti for the first Time that is useful to the integration of Concentrating Solar Power (CSP) and sites selections for new or future solar plants as part of solar energy development. An ANN algorithm was developed to establish a forward/reverse correspondence between the latitude, longitude, altitude and monthly solar irradiation. For this purpose the German Aerospace Centre (DLR) data of eight Djibouti sites were used as training and testing in a standard three layers network with the back propagation algorithm of Lavenber-Marquardt. Results have shown a very good agreement for the solar irradiation prediction in Djibouti and proves that the proposed approach can be well used as an efficient tool for prediction of solar irradiation by providing so helpful information concerning sites selection, design and planning of solar plants.

Keywords: Artificial neural network, solar irradiation, concentrated solar power, Lavenberg-Marquardt.

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Authors: Morteza Fathipour, Samira Omidbakhsh, Kimia Khodayari

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RF performance of SOI CMOS device has attracted significant amount of interest recently. In order to improve RF parameters, Strained Si/Relaxed Si0.8Ge0.2 investigated as a replacement for Si technology .Enhancement of carrier mobility associated with strain engineering makes Strained Si a promising candidate for improving RF performance of CMOS technology. From the simulation, the cut-off frequency is estimated to be 224 GHZ, whereas in SOI at similar bias is about 188 GHZ. Therefore, Strained Si exhibits 19% improvement in cut-off frequency over similar Si counterpart. In this paper, Ion/Ioff ratio is studied as one of the key parameters in logic and digital application. Strained Si/SiGe demonstrates better Ion/Ioff characteristic than SOI, in similar channel length of 100 nm.Another important key analog figures of merit such as Early Voltage (VEA) ,transconductance vs drain current (gm /Ids) are studied. They introduce the efficiency of the devices to convert dc power into ac frequency.

Keywords: cut-off frequency, RF application, Silicon oninsulator, Strained Si/SiGe on insulator.

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Authors: Y. Atilgan Şengül

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Health information technologies promise higher quality, safer care and much more for both patients and professionals. Despite their promise, they are costly to develop and difficult to implement. On the other hand, user acceptance and usage determine the success of implemented information technology in healthcare. This study provides a model to understand health professionals’ perception and expectation of health information technology. Extensive literature review has been conducted to determine the main factors to be measured. A questionnaire has been designed as a measurement model and submitted to the personnel of an in vitro fertilization clinic. The respondents’ degree of agreement according to five-point Likert scale was 72% for convenient access to data and 69.4% for the importance of data security. There was a significant difference in acceptance of electronic data storage for female respondents. Also, other significant differences between professions were obtained.

Keywords: Healthcare, health informatics, medical record system, questionnaire.

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Authors: Ahmad Salman

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Electronic Response Systems such as Kahoot, Poll Everywhere, and Google Classroom are gaining a lot of popularity when surveying audiences in events, meetings, and classroom. The reason is mainly because of the ease of use and the convenience these tools bring since they provide mobile applications with a simple user interface. In this paper, we present a case study on the effectiveness of using Electronic Response Systems on student participation and learning experience in a classroom. We use a polling application for class exercises in two different technology-oriented classes. We evaluate the effectiveness of the usage of the polling applications through statistical analysis of the students performance in these two classes and compare them to the performances of students who took the same classes without using the polling application for class participation. Our results show an increase in the performances of the students who used the Electronic Response System when compared to those who did not by an average of 11%.

Keywords: Interactive learning, classroom technology, electronic response systems, polling applications, learning evaluation.

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Authors: Gleda Kutrolli, Maksi Kutrolli, Etjon Meco

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SARS-CoV-2 virus is currently one of the most infectious pathogens for humans. It started in China at the end of 2019 and now it is spread in all over the world. The origin and diffusion of the SARS-CoV-2 epidemic, is analysed based on the discussion of viral phylogeny theory. With the aim of understanding the spread of infection in the affected countries, it is crucial to modelize the spread of the virus and simulate its activity. In this paper, the prediction of coronavirus outbreak is done by using SIR model without vital dynamics, applying different numerical technique solving ordinary differential equations (ODEs). We find out that ABM and MRT methods perform better than other techniques and that the activity of the virus will decrease in April but it never cease (for some time the activity will remain low) and the next cycle will start in the middle July 2020 for Norway and Denmark, and October 2020 for Sweden, and September for Finland.

Keywords: Forecasting, ordinary differential equations, SARS-CoV-2 epidemic, SIR model.

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Authors: Ethan Shafer, Timothy Graziano, Jay Fisher

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This research seeks to answer whether first-year courses at institutions of higher learning can impact STEM major selection. Unlike many universities, an entry-level technology course (often referred to as CS0) is required for all United States Military Academy (USMA) students–regardless of major–in their first year of attendance. Students at the Academy choose their major at the end of their first year of studies. Through student responses to a multi-semester survey, this paper identifies a number of factors that potentially influence STEM major selection. Student demographic data, pre-existing exposure and access to technology, perceptions of STEM subjects, and initial desire for a STEM major are captured before and after taking a CS0 course. An analysis of factors that contribute to student perception of STEM and major selection are presented. This work provides recommendations and suggestions for institutions currently providing or looking to provide CS0-like courses to their students.

Keywords: STEM major, STEM, pedagogy, digital literacy.

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Authors: Ragi Poyyara, Vivek V., Ashish Khaparde

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The product development process (PDP) in the Technology group plays a very important role in the launch of any product. While a manufacturing process encourages the use of certain measures to reduce health, safety and environmental (HSE) risks on the shop floor, the PDP concentrates on the use of Geometric Dimensioning and Tolerancing (GD&T) to develop a flawless design. Furthermore, PDP distributes and coordinates activities between different departments such as marketing, purchasing, and manufacturing. However, it is seldom realized that PDP makes a significant contribution to developing a product that reduces HSE risks by encouraging the Technology group to use effective GD&T. The GD&T is a precise communication tool that uses a set of symbols, rules, and definitions to mathematically define parts to be manufactured. It is a quality assurance method widely used in the oil and gas sector. Traditionally it is used to ensure the interchangeability of a part without affecting its form, fit, and function. Parts that do not meet these requirements are rejected during quality audits. This paper discusses how the Technology group integrates this quality assurance tool into the PDP and how the tool plays a major role in helping the HSE department in its goal towards eliminating HSE incidents. The PDP involves a thorough risk assessment and establishes a method to address those risks during the design stage. An illustration shows how GD&T helped reduce safety risks by ergonomically improving assembling operations. A brief discussion explains how tolerances provided on a part help prevent finger injury. This tool has equipped Technology to produce fixtures, which are used daily in operations as well as manufacturing. By applying GD&T to create good fits, HSE risks are mitigated for operating personnel. Both customers and service providers benefit from reduced safety risks.

Keywords: HSE, PDP, GD&T, risks.

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Authors: Madina Hamiane, Amina Khunji

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Detecting changes in multiple images of the same scene has recently seen increased interest due to the many contemporary applications including smart security systems, smart homes, remote sensing, surveillance, medical diagnosis, weather forecasting, speed and distance measurement, post-disaster forensics and much more. These applications differ in the scale, nature, and speed of change. This paper presents an application of image processing techniques to implement a real-time change detection system. Change is identified by comparing the RGB representation of two consecutive frames captured in real-time. The detection threshold can be controlled to account for various luminance levels. The comparison result is passed through a filter before decision making to reduce false positives, especially at lower luminance conditions. The system is implemented with a MATLAB Graphical User interface with several controls to manage its operation and performance.

Keywords: Image change detection, Image processing, image filtering, thresholding, B/W quantization.

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Authors: Wan-Yu Liu

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To respond to the Kyoto Protocol, the policy of Payment for Environmental Service (PES), which was entitled “Plain Landscape Afforestation Program (PLAP)", was certified by Executive Yuan in Taiwan on 31 August 2001 and has been implementing for six years since 1 January 2002. Although the PLAP has received a lot of positive comments, there are still many difficulties during the process of implementation, such as insufficient technology for afforestation, private landowners- low interests in participating in PLAP, insufficient subsidies, and so on, which are potential threats that hinder the PLAP from moving forward in future. In this paper, selecting Ping-Tung County in Taiwan as a sample region and targeting those private landowners with and without intention to participate in the PLAP, respectively, we conduct an empirical analysis based on the Logit model to investigate the factors that determine whether those private landowners join the PLAP, so as to realize the incentive effects of the PLAP upon the personal decision on afforestation. The possible factors that might determine private landowner-s participation in the PLAP include landowner-s characteristics, cropland characteristics, as well as policy factors. Among them, the policy factors include afforestation subsidy amount (+), duration of afforestation subsidy (+), the rules on adjoining and adjacent areas (+), and so on, which do not reach the remarkable level in statistics though, but the directions of variable signs are consistent with the intuition behind the policy. As for the landowners- characteristics, each of age (+), education level (–), and annual household income (+) variables reaches 10% of the remarkable level in statistics; as for the cropland characteristics, each of cropland area (+), cropland price (–), and the number of cropland parcels (–) reaches 1% of the remarkable level in statistics. In light of the above, the cropland characteristics are the dominate factor that determines the probability of landowner-s participation in the PLAP. In the Logit model established by this paper, the probability of correctly estimating nonparticipants is 98%, the probability of correctly estimating the participants is 71.8%, and the probability for the overall estimation is 95%. In addition, Hosmer-Lemeshow test and omnibus test also revealed that the Logit model in this paper may provide fine goodness of fit and good predictive power in forecasting private landowners- participation in this program. The empirical result of this paper expects to help the implementation of the afforestation programs in Taiwan.

Keywords: Forestry policy, logit, afforestation subsidy, afforestation policy.

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Authors: Karim Hamidi Machekposhti, Hossein Sedghi, Abdolrasoul Telvari, Hossein Babazadeh

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Rainfall and runoff phenomenon is a chaotic and complex outcome of nature which requires sophisticated modelling and simulation methods for explanation and use. Time Series modelling allows runoff data analysis and can be used as forecasting tool. In the paper attempt is made to model river runoff data and predict the future behavioural pattern of river based on annual past observations of annual river runoff. The river runoff analysis and predict are done using ARIMA model. For evaluating the efficiency of prediction to hydrological events such as rainfall, runoff and etc., we use the statistical formulae applicable. The good agreement between predicted and observation river runoff coefficient of determination (R²) display that the ARIMA (4,1,1) is the suitable model for predicting Karkheh River runoff at Iran.

Keywords: Time series modelling, ARIMA model, River runoff, Karkheh River, CLS method.

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Authors: David W. Farler, Perry Haan

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This paper explores what effective leadership is being employed in the engineering, technology, and construction (ETC) industry. Organizations need to understand what character traits are being used and what leadership styles work to promote sustainability and improve the triple bottom line. This paper looks at multiple publications on leadership and character traits effective for managers and leaders in the ETC industry. The ETC industry is a trillion-dollar industry, and understanding ways to improve leadership is vital for organizations' successful outcomes. With improvements to the managerial and leadership, there could be ways for organizations to profit more and cut down on cost costs. Finding ways to improve motivation can help organizations improve safety, improve culture, and increase employee motivation. From the research, this paper has found that situational leadership, transformational, and transactional are the most effective leadership styles that individuals can use in the ETC industry for leadership. Character traits that are the most effective have been identified in this research paper. This research has contributed to the ways individuals who start in the engineering and technology industry can improve upon their leadership skills as they are promoted into managerial and leadership roles. The need for managerial positions in the ETC industry, such as project and construction managers, to improve is vital for successful outcomes and creating a high-level performance. The study helps provide a gap in the limited research available to improve ETC leadership for all organizations' present and future.

Keywords: Construction, effective leadership, engineering, technology.

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Authors: Elena Krelja Kurelović, Jasminka Tomljanović, Vlatka Davidović

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The development of web technologies and mobile devices makes creating, accessing, using and sharing information or communicating with each other simpler every day. However, while the amount of information constantly increasing it is becoming harder to effectively organize and find quality information despite the availability of web search engines, filtering and indexing tools. Although digital technologies have overall positive impact on students’ lives, frequent use of these technologies and digital media enriched with dynamic hypertext and hypermedia content, as well as multitasking, distractions caused by notifications, calls or messages; can decrease the attention span, make thinking, memorizing and learning more difficult, which can lead to stress and mental exhaustion. This is referred to as “information overload”, “information glut” or “information anxiety”. Objective of this study is to determine whether students show signs of information overload and to identify the possible predictors. Research was conducted using a questionnaire developed for the purpose of this study. The results show that students frequently use technology (computers, gadgets and digital media), while they show moderate level of information literacy. They have sometimes experienced symptoms of information overload. According to the statistical analysis, higher frequency of technology use and lower level of information literacy are correlated with larger information overload. The multiple regression analysis has confirmed that the combination of these two independent variables has statistically significant predictive capacity for information overload. Therefore, the information science teachers should pay attention to improving the level of students’ information literacy and educate them about the risks of excessive technology use.

Keywords: Information overload, technology use, digital media, information literacy, students.

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Authors: D. Šebo, M. Fedorčáková

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Following the research in the Department of environmental engineering in Faculty of mechanical engineering on Technical University of Kosice and experiences with electrocoagulation style of disposal waste water, there were designed and partly examining the equipment of two stage revitalization on the standing and little fusible water of tenet electrolysis on the little tarns. With the cooperation with vet experts was that manners prove and it is innocuous for animals, during which time cyanobacteria are totally paralyzed. For the implementation of science and research results have been obtained by means EU funds for structural development.

Keywords: Cyanobacteria, Equipment, Pollution, Stagnant Water, Technology

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Authors: Hidir S. Nogay

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In this study, two systems were created to predict interior temperature in induction motor. One of them consisted of a simple ANN model which has two layers, ten input parameters and one output parameter. The other one consisted of eight ANN models connected each other as cascaded. Cascaded ANN system has 17 inputs. Main reason of cascaded system being used in this study is to accomplish more accurate estimation by increasing inputs in the ANN system. Cascaded ANN system is compared with simple conventional ANN model to prove mentioned advantages. Dataset was obtained from experimental applications. Small part of the dataset was used to obtain more understandable graphs. Number of data is 329. 30% of the data was used for testing and validation. Test data and validation data were determined for each ANN model separately and reliability of each model was tested. As a result of this study, it has been understood that the cascaded ANN system produced more accurate estimates than conventional ANN model.

Keywords: Cascaded neural network, internal temperature, three-phase induction motor, inverter.

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Authors: A. Vinay, Mary Josephine, Shreesha. S. Rao, Dhande Kranthi Kumar, J. Nandini

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This paper looks at the development of Fisheries education in Karnataka and the supply of skilled human capital to the sector. The study tries to analyse their job occupancy patterns, Compound Growth Rate (CGR) and forecasts the fisheries graduates supply using the Holt method. In Karnataka, fisheries are one of the neglected allied sectors of agriculture in spite of having enormous scope and potential to contribute to the State's agriculture GDP. The State Government has been negligent in absorbing skilled human capital for the development of fisheries, as there are so many vacant positions in both education institutes, as well as the State fisheries department. CGR and forecasting of fisheries graduates shows a positive growth rate and increasing trend, from which we can understand that by proper utilization of skilled human capital can bring development in the fisheries sector of Karnataka.

Keywords: Compound growth rate, fisheries education, Holt method, skilled human capital.

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Authors: Ε. Giovanis

Abstract:

In this paper we present an autoregressive model with neural networks modeling and standard error backpropagation algorithm training optimization in order to predict the gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate of four countries. Specifically we propose a kind of weighted regression, which can be used for econometric purposes, where the initial inputs are multiplied by the neural networks final optimum weights from input-hidden layer after the training process. The forecasts are compared with those of the ordinary autoregressive model and we conclude that the proposed regression-s forecasting results outperform significant those of autoregressive model in the out-of-sample period. The idea behind this approach is to propose a parametric regression with weighted variables in order to test for the statistical significance and the magnitude of the estimated autoregressive coefficients and simultaneously to estimate the forecasts.

Keywords: Autoregressive model, Error back-propagation Feed-Forward neural networks, , Gross Domestic Product

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Authors: E. Giovanis

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In this paper we present a Feed-Foward Neural Networks Autoregressive (FFNN-AR) model with genetic algorithms training optimization in order to predict the gross domestic product growth of six countries. Specifically we propose a kind of weighted regression, which can be used for econometric purposes, where the initial inputs are multiplied by the neural networks final optimum weights from input-hidden layer of the training process. The forecasts are compared with those of the ordinary autoregressive model and we conclude that the proposed regression-s forecasting results outperform significant those of autoregressive model. Moreover this technique can be used in Autoregressive-Moving Average models, with and without exogenous inputs, as also the training process with genetics algorithms optimization can be replaced by the error back-propagation algorithm.

Keywords: Autoregressive model, Feed-Forward neuralnetworks, Genetic Algorithms, Gross Domestic Product

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Authors: Yeqing Guan, Fen Yang

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To learn about China-s future energy demand, this paper first proposed GM(1,1) model group based on recursive solutions of parameters estimation, setting up a general solving-algorithm of the model group. This method avoided the problems occurred on the past researches that remodeling, loss of information and large amount of calculation. This paper established respectively all-data-GM(1,1), metabolic GM(1,1) and new information GM (1,1)model according to the historical data of energy consumption in China in the year 2005-2010 and the added data of 2011, then modeling, simulating and comparison of accuracies we got the optimal models and to predict. Results showed that the total energy demand of China will be 37.2221 billion tons of equivalent coal in 2012 and 39.7973 billion tons of equivalent coal in 2013, which are as the same as the overall planning of energy demand in The 12th Five-Year Plan.

Keywords: energy demands, GM(1, 1) model group, least square estimation, prediction

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Authors: Monika Jain, Shikhar Puri, Shivali Unishree

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This paper presents the ‘Eye Ball Motion Controlled Wheelchair using IR Sensors’ for the elderly and differently abled people. In this eye tracking based technology, three Proximity Infrared (IR) sensor modules are mounted on an eye frame to trace the movement of the iris. Since, IR sensors detect only white objects; a unique sequence of digital bits is generated corresponding to each eye movement. These signals are then processed via a micro controller IC (PIC18F452) to control the motors of the wheelchair. The potential and efficiency of previously developed rehabilitation systems that use head motion, chin control, sip-n-puff control, voice recognition, and EEG signals variedly have also been explored in detail. They were found to be inconvenient as they served either limited usability or non-affordability. After multiple regression analyses, the proposed design was developed as a cost-effective, flexible and stream-lined alternative for people who have trouble adopting conventional assistive technologies.

Keywords: Eye tracking technology, Intelligent wheelchair, IR module, rehabilitation technology.

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Authors: V. S. Bushkova

Abstract:

It is well known that in recent years magnetic materials have received increased attention due to their properties. For this reason a significant number of patents that were published during the last decade are oriented towards synthesis and study of such materials. The aim of this work is to create and study ferrite nanocrystalline materials with spinel structure, using sol-gel technology with participation of auto-combustion. This method is perspective in that it is a cheap and low-temperature technique that allows for the fine control on the product’s chemical composition.

Keywords: Magnetic materials, ferrites, sol–gel technology, nanocrystalline powders.

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