Search results for: fuzzy neural network
Commenced in January 2007
Frequency: Monthly
Edition: International
Paper Count: 3818

Search results for: fuzzy neural network

3428 Project Selection Using Fuzzy Group Analytic Network Process

Authors: Hamed Rafiei, Masoud Rabbani

Abstract:

This paper deals with the project selection problem. Project selection problem is one of the problems arose firstly in the field of operations research following some production concepts from primary product mix problem. Afterward, introduction of managerial considerations into the project selection problem have emerged qualitative factors and criteria to be regarded as well as quantitative ones. To overcome both kinds of criteria, an analytic network process is developed in this paper enhanced with fuzzy sets theory to tackle the vagueness of experts- comments to evaluate the alternatives. Additionally, a modified version of Least-Square method through a non-linear programming model is augmented to the developed group decision making structure in order to elicit the final weights from comparison matrices. Finally, a case study is considered by which developed structure in this paper is validated. Moreover, a sensitivity analysis is performed to validate the response of the model with respect to the condition alteration.

Keywords: Analytic network process, Fuzzy sets theory, Nonlinear programming, Project selection.

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3427 Investigation of Improved Chaotic Signal Tracking by Echo State Neural Networks and Multilayer Perceptron via Training of Extended Kalman Filter Approach

Authors: Farhad Asadi, S. Hossein Sadati

Abstract:

This paper presents a prediction performance of feedforward Multilayer Perceptron (MLP) and Echo State Networks (ESN) trained with extended Kalman filter. Feedforward neural networks and ESN are powerful neural networks which can track and predict nonlinear signals. However, their tracking performance depends on the specific signals or data sets, having the risk of instability accompanied by large error. In this study we explore this process by applying different network size and leaking rate for prediction of nonlinear or chaotic signals in MLP neural networks. Major problems of ESN training such as the problem of initialization of the network and improvement in the prediction performance are tackled. The influence of coefficient of activation function in the hidden layer and other key parameters are investigated by simulation results. Extended Kalman filter is employed in order to improve the sequential and regulation learning rate of the feedforward neural networks. This training approach has vital features in the training of the network when signals have chaotic or non-stationary sequential pattern. Minimization of the variance in each step of the computation and hence smoothing of tracking were obtained by examining the results, indicating satisfactory tracking characteristics for certain conditions. In addition, simulation results confirmed satisfactory performance of both of the two neural networks with modified parameterization in tracking of the nonlinear signals.

Keywords: Feedforward neural networks, nonlinear signal prediction, echo state neural networks approach, leaking rates, capacity of neural networks.

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3426 Representation of Power System for Electromagnetic Transient Calculation

Authors: P. Sowa

Abstract:

The new idea of analyze of power system failure with use of artificial neural network is proposed. An analysis of the possibility of simulating phenomena accompanying system faults and restitution is described. It was indicated that the universal model for the simulation of phenomena in whole analyzed range does not exist. The main classic method of search of optimal structure and parameter identification are described shortly. The example with results of calculation is shown.

Keywords: Dynamic equivalents, Network reduction, Neural networks, Power system analysis.

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3425 Principal Component Analysis-Ranking as a Variable Selection Method for the Simultaneous Spectrophotometric Determination of Phenol, Resorcinol and Catechol in Real Samples

Authors: Nahid Ghasemi, Mohammad Goodarzi, Morteza Khosravi

Abstract:

Simultaneous determination of multicomponents of phenol, resorcinol and catechol with a chemometric technique a PCranking artificial neural network (PCranking-ANN) algorithm is reported in this study. Based on the data correlation coefficient method, 3 representative PCs are selected from the scores of original UV spectral data (35 PCs) as the original input patterns for ANN to build a neural network model. The results obtained by iterating 8000 .The RMSEP for phenol, resorcinol and catechol with PCranking- ANN were 0.6680, 0.0766 and 0.1033, respectively. Calibration matrices were 0.50-21.0, 0.50-15.1 and 0.50-20.0 μg ml-1 for phenol, resorcinol and catechol, respectively. The proposed method was successfully applied for the determination of phenol, resorcinol and catechol in synthetic and water samples.

Keywords: Phenol, Resorcinol, Catechol, Principal componentrankingArtificial Neural Network, Chemometrics.

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3424 Dependent Weighted Aggregation Operators of Hesitant Fuzzy Numbers

Authors: Jing Liu

Abstract:

In this paper, motivated by the ideas of dependent weighted aggregation operators, we develop some new hesitant fuzzy dependent weighted aggregation operators to aggregate the input arguments taking the form of hesitant fuzzy numbers rather than exact numbers, or intervals. In fact, we propose three hesitant fuzzy dependent weighted averaging(HFDWA) operators, and three hesitant fuzzy dependent weighted geometric(HFDWG) operators based on different weight vectors, and the most prominent characteristic of these operators is that the associated weights only depend on the aggregated hesitant fuzzy numbers and can relieve the influence of unfair hesitant fuzzy numbers on the aggregated results by assigning low weights to those “false” and “biased” ones. Some examples are given to illustrated the efficiency of the proposed operators.

Keywords: Hesitant fuzzy numbers, hesitant fuzzy dependent weighted averaging(HFDWA) operators, hesitant fuzzy dependent weighted geometric(HFDWG) operators.

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3423 Soft-Sensor for Estimation of Gasoline Octane Number in Platforming Processes with Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Inference Systems (ANFIS)

Authors: Hamed.Vezvaei, Sepideh.Ordibeheshti, Mehdi.Ardjmand

Abstract:

Gasoline Octane Number is the standard measure of the anti-knock properties of a motor in platforming processes, that is one of the important unit operations for oil refineries and can be determined with online measurement or use CFR (Cooperative Fuel Research) engines. Online measurements of the Octane number can be done using direct octane number analyzers, that it is too expensive, so we have to find feasible analyzer, like ANFIS estimators. ANFIS is the systems that neural network incorporated in fuzzy systems, using data automatically by learning algorithms of NNs. ANFIS constructs an input-output mapping based both on human knowledge and on generated input-output data pairs. In this research, 31 industrial data sets are used (21 data for training and the rest of the data used for generalization). Results show that, according to this simulation, hybrid method training algorithm in ANFIS has good agreements between industrial data and simulated results.

Keywords: Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Inference Systems, GasolineOctane Number, Soft-sensor, Catalytic Naphtha Reforming

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3422 Recognition of Tifinagh Characters with Missing Parts Using Neural Network

Authors: El Mahdi Barrah, Said Safi, Abdessamad Malaoui

Abstract:

In this paper, we present an algorithm for reconstruction from incomplete 2D scans for tifinagh characters. This algorithm is based on using correlation between the lost block and its neighbors. This system proposed contains three main parts: pre-processing, features extraction and recognition. In the first step, we construct a database of tifinagh characters. In the second step, we will apply “shape analysis algorithm”. In classification part, we will use Neural Network. The simulation results demonstrate that the proposed method give good results.

Keywords: Tifinagh character recognition, Neural networks, Local cost computation.

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3421 Simplex Method for Fuzzy Variable Linear Programming Problems

Authors: S.H. Nasseri, E. Ardil

Abstract:

Fuzzy linear programming is an application of fuzzy set theory in linear decision making problems and most of these problems are related to linear programming with fuzzy variables. A convenient method for solving these problems is based on using of auxiliary problem. In this paper a new method for solving fuzzy variable linear programming problems directly using linear ranking functions is proposed. This method uses simplex tableau which is used for solving linear programming problems in crisp environment before.

Keywords: Fuzzy variable linear programming, fuzzy number, ranking function, simplex method.

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3420 Definition of Foot Size Model using Kohonen Network

Authors: Khawla Ben Abderrahim

Abstract:

In order to define a new model of Tunisian foot sizes and for building the most comfortable shoes, Tunisian industrialists must be able to offer for their customers products able to put on and adjust the majority of the target population concerned. Moreover, the use of models of shoes, mainly from others country, causes a mismatch between the foot and comfort of the Tunisian shoes. But every foot is unique; these models become uncomfortable for the Tunisian foot. We have a set of measures produced from a 3D scan of the feet of a diverse population (women, men ...) and we try to analyze this data to define a model of foot specific to the Tunisian footwear design. In this paper we propose tow new approaches to modeling a new foot sizes model. We used, indeed, the neural networks, and specially the Kohonen network. Next, we combine neural networks with the concept of half-foot size to improve the models already found. Finally, it was necessary to compare the results obtained by applying each approach and we decide what-s the best approach that give us the most model of foot improving more comfortable shoes.

Keywords: Morphology of the foot, foot size, half foot size, neural network, Kohonen network, model of foot size.

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3419 Sensitizing Rules for Fuzzy Control Charts

Authors: N. Pekin Alakoç, A. Apaydın

Abstract:

Quality control charts indicate out of control conditions if any nonrandom pattern of the points is observed or any point is plotted beyond the control limits. Nonrandom patterns of Shewhart control charts are tested with sensitizing rules. When the processes are defined with fuzzy set theory, traditional sensitizing rules are insufficient for defining all out of control conditions. This is due to the fact that fuzzy numbers increase the number of out of control conditions. The purpose of the study is to develop a set of fuzzy sensitizing rules, which increase the flexibility and sensitivity of fuzzy control charts. Fuzzy sensitizing rules simplify the identification of out of control situations that results in a decrease in the calculation time and number of evaluations in fuzzy control chart approach.

Keywords: Fuzzy set theory, Quality control charts, Run Rules, Unnatural patterns.

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3418 Auto Regressive Tree Modeling for Parametric Optimization in Fuzzy Logic Control System

Authors: Arshia Azam, J. Amarnath, Ch. D. V. Paradesi Rao

Abstract:

The advantage of solving the complex nonlinear problems by utilizing fuzzy logic methodologies is that the experience or expert-s knowledge described as a fuzzy rule base can be directly embedded into the systems for dealing with the problems. The current limitation of appropriate and automated designing of fuzzy controllers are focused in this paper. The structure discovery and parameter adjustment of the Branched T-S fuzzy model is addressed by a hybrid technique of type constrained sparse tree algorithms. The simulation result for different system model is evaluated and the identification error is observed to be minimum.

Keywords: Fuzzy logic, branch T-S fuzzy model, tree modeling, complex nonlinear system.

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3417 Parameter Sensitivity Analysis of Artificial Neural Network for Predicting Water Turbidity

Authors: Chia-Ling Chang, Chung-Sheng Liao

Abstract:

The present study focuses on the discussion over the parameter of Artificial Neural Network (ANN). Sensitivity analysis is applied to assess the effect of the parameters of ANN on the prediction of turbidity of raw water in the water treatment plant. The result shows that transfer function of hidden layer is a critical parameter of ANN. When the transfer function changes, the reliability of prediction of water turbidity is greatly different. Moreover, the estimated water turbidity is less sensitive to training times and learning velocity than the number of neurons in the hidden layer. Therefore, it is important to select an appropriate transfer function and suitable number of neurons in the hidden layer in the process of parameter training and validation.

Keywords: Artificial Neural Network (ANN), sensitivity analysis, turbidity.

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3416 Sub-Image Detection Using Fast Neural Processors and Image Decomposition

Authors: Hazem M. El-Bakry, Qiangfu Zhao

Abstract:

In this paper, an approach to reduce the computation steps required by fast neural networksfor the searching process is presented. The principle ofdivide and conquer strategy is applied through imagedecomposition. Each image is divided into small in sizesub-images and then each one is tested separately usinga fast neural network. The operation of fast neuralnetworks based on applying cross correlation in thefrequency domain between the input image and theweights of the hidden neurons. Compared toconventional and fast neural networks, experimentalresults show that a speed up ratio is achieved whenapplying this technique to locate human facesautomatically in cluttered scenes. Furthermore, fasterface detection is obtained by using parallel processingtechniques to test the resulting sub-images at the sametime using the same number of fast neural networks. Incontrast to using only fast neural networks, the speed upratio is increased with the size of the input image whenusing fast neural networks and image decomposition.

Keywords: Fast Neural Networks, 2D-FFT, CrossCorrelation, Image decomposition, Parallel Processing.

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3415 Order Partitioning in Hybrid MTS/MTO Contexts using Fuzzy ANP

Authors: H. Rafiei, M. Rabbani

Abstract:

A novel concept to balance and tradeoff between make-to-stock and make-to-order has been hybrid MTS/MTO production context. One of the most important decisions involved in the hybrid MTS/MTO environment is determining whether a product is manufactured to stock, to order, or hybrid MTS/MTO strategy. In this paper, a model based on analytic network process is developed to tackle the addressed decision. Since the regarded decision deals with the uncertainty and ambiguity of data as well as experts- and managers- linguistic judgments, the proposed model is equipped with fuzzy sets theory. An important attribute of the model is its generality due to diverse decision factors which are elicited from the literature and developed by the authors. Finally, the model is validated by applying to a real case study to reveal how the proposed model can actually be implemented.

Keywords: Fuzzy analytic network process, Hybrid make-tostock/ make-to-order, Order partitioning, Production planning.

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3414 Performance Analysis of Artificial Neural Network with Decision Tree in Prediction of Diabetes Mellitus

Authors: J. K. Alhassan, B. Attah, S. Misra

Abstract:

Human beings have the ability to make logical decisions. Although human decision - making is often optimal, it is insufficient when huge amount of data is to be classified. Medical dataset is a vital ingredient used in predicting patient’s health condition. In other to have the best prediction, there calls for most suitable machine learning algorithms. This work compared the performance of Artificial Neural Network (ANN) and Decision Tree Algorithms (DTA) as regards to some performance metrics using diabetes data. WEKA software was used for the implementation of the algorithms. Multilayer Perceptron (MLP) and Radial Basis Function (RBF) were the two algorithms used for ANN, while RegTree and LADTree algorithms were the DTA models used. From the results obtained, DTA performed better than ANN. The Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE) of MLP is 0.3913 that of RBF is 0.3625, that of RepTree is 0.3174 and that of LADTree is 0.3206 respectively.

Keywords: Artificial neural network, classification, decision tree, diabetes mellitus.

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3413 A Note on Characterization of Regular Γ-Semigroups in terms of (∈,∈ ∨q)-Fuzzy Bi-ideal

Authors: S.K.Sardar, B.Davvaz, S.Kayal, S.K.Majumdar

Abstract:

The purpose of this note is to obtain some properties of (∈,∈ ∨q)- fuzzy bi-ideals in a Γ-semigroup in order to characterize regular and intra-regular Γ-semigroups.

Keywords: Regular Γ-semigroup, belong to or quasi-coincident, (∈, ∈ ∨q)-fuzzy subsemigroup, (∈, ∈ ∨q)-fuzzy bi-ideals.

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3412 Performance Analysis of Artificial Neural Network Based Land Cover Classification

Authors: Najam Aziz, Nasru Minallah, Ahmad Junaid, Kashaf Gul

Abstract:

Landcover classification using automated classification techniques, while employing remotely sensed multi-spectral imagery, is one of the promising areas of research. Different land conditions at different time are captured through satellite and monitored by applying different classification algorithms in specific environment. In this paper, a SPOT-5 image provided by SUPARCO has been studied and classified in Environment for Visual Interpretation (ENVI), a tool widely used in remote sensing. Then, Artificial Neural Network (ANN) classification technique is used to detect the land cover changes in Abbottabad district. Obtained results are compared with a pixel based Distance classifier. The results show that ANN gives the better overall accuracy of 99.20% and Kappa coefficient value of 0.98 over the Mahalanobis Distance Classifier.

Keywords: Landcover classification, artificial neural network, remote sensing, SPOT-5.

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3411 Advanced Convolutional Neural Network Paradigms-Comparison of VGG16 with Resnet50 in Crime Detection

Authors: Taiwo. M. Akinmuyisitan, John Cosmas

Abstract:

This paper practically demonstrates the theories and concepts of an Advanced Convolutional Neural Network in the design and development of a scalable artificial intelligence model for the detection of criminal masterminds. The technique uses machine vision algorithms to compute the facial characteristics of suspects and classify actors as criminal or non-criminal faces. The paper proceeds further to compare the results of the error accuracy of two popular custom convolutional pre-trained networks, VGG16 and Resnet50. The result shows that VGG16 is probably more efficient than ResNet50 for the dataset we used.

Keywords: Artificial intelligence, convolutional neural networks, Resnet50, VGG16.

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3410 Estimation of Real Power Transfer Allocation Using Intelligent Systems

Authors: H. Shareef, A. Mohamed, S. A. Khalid, Aziah Khamis

Abstract:

This paper presents application artificial intelligent (AI) techniques, namely artificial neural network (ANN), adaptive neuro fuzzy interface system (ANFIS), to estimate the real power transfer between generators and loads. Since these AI techniques adopt supervised learning, it first uses modified nodal equation method (MNE) to determine real power contribution from each generator to loads. Then the results of MNE method and load flow information are utilized to estimate the power transfer using AI techniques. The 25-bus equivalent system of south Malaysia is utilized as a test system to illustrate the effectiveness of both AI methods compared to that of the MNE method. The mean squared error of the estimate of ANN and ANFIS power transfer allocation methods are 1.19E-05 and 2.97E-05, respectively. Furthermore, when compared to MNE method, ANN and ANFIS methods computes generator contribution to loads within 20.99 and 39.37msec respectively whereas the MNE method took 360msec for the calculation of same real power transfer allocation. 

Keywords: Artificial intelligence, Power tracing, Artificial neural network, ANFIS, Power system deregulation.

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3409 Some Equalities Connected with Fuzzy Soft Matrices

Authors: D. R. Jain

Abstract:

The aim of this paper is to use matrix representation of Fuzzy soft sets for proving some equalities connected with Fuzzy soft sets based on set-operations.

Keywords: Equality, Fuzzy soft matrix, Fuzzy soft sets, operations.

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3408 Fuzzy Shortest Paths Approximation for Solving the Fuzzy Steiner Tree Problem in Graphs

Authors: Miloš Šeda

Abstract:

In this paper, we deal with the Steiner tree problem (STP) on a graph in which a fuzzy number, instead of a real number, is assigned to each edge. We propose a modification of the shortest paths approximation based on the fuzzy shortest paths (FSP) evaluations. Since a fuzzy min operation using the extension principle leads to nondominated solutions, we propose another approach to solving the FSP using Cheng's centroid point fuzzy ranking method.

Keywords: Steiner tree, single shortest path problem, fuzzyranking, binary heap, priority queue.

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3407 Ranking Fuzzy Numbers Based On Epsilon-Deviation Degree

Authors: Vincent F. Yu, Ha Thi Xuan Chi

Abstract:

Nejad and Mashinchi (2011) proposed a revision for ranking fuzzy numbers based on the areas of the left and the right sides of a fuzzy number. However, this method still has some shortcomings such as lack of discriminative power to rank similar fuzzy numbers and no guarantee the consistency between the ranking of fuzzy numbers and the ranking of their images. To overcome these drawbacks, we propose an epsilon-deviation degree method based on the left area and the right area of a fuzzy number, and the concept of the centroid point. The main advantage of the new approach is the development of an innovative index value which can be used to consistently evaluate and rank fuzzy numbers. Numerical examples are presented to illustrate the efficiency and superiority of the proposed method.

Keywords: Ranking fuzzy numbers, Centroid, Deviation degree.

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3406 Design of Gain Scheduled Fuzzy PID Controller

Authors: Leehter Yao, Chin-Chin Lin

Abstract:

An adaptive fuzzy PID controller with gain scheduling is proposed in this paper. The structure of the proposed gain scheduled fuzzy PID (GS_FPID) controller consists of both fuzzy PI-like controller and fuzzy PD-like controller. Both of fuzzy PI-like and PD-like controllers are weighted through adaptive gain scheduling, which are also determined by fuzzy logic inference. A modified genetic algorithm called accumulated genetic algorithm is designed to learn the parameters of fuzzy inference system. In order to learn the number of fuzzy rules required for the TSK model, the fuzzy rules are learned in an accumulated way. In other words, the parameters learned in the previous rules are accumulated and updated along with the parameters in the current rule. It will be shown that the proposed GS_FPID controllers learned by the accumulated GA perform well for not only the regular linear systems but also the higher order and time-delayed systems.

Keywords: Gain scheduling, fuzzy PID controller, adaptive control, genetic algorithm.

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3405 Intuitionistic Fuzzy Implicative Ideals with Thresholds (λ,μ) of BCI-Algebras

Authors: Qianqian Li, Shaoquan Sun

Abstract:

The aim of this paper is to introduce the notion of intuitionistic fuzzy implicative ideals with thresholds (λ, μ) of BCI-algebras and to investigate its properties and characterizations.

Keywords: BCI-algebra, intuitionistic fuzzy set, intuitionistic fuzzy ideal with thresholds (λ, μ), intuitionistic fuzzy implicative ideal with thresholds (λ, μ).

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3404 Takagi-Sugeno Fuzzy Control of Induction Motor

Authors: Allouche Moez, Souissi Mansour, Chaabane Mohamed, Mehdi Driss

Abstract:

This paper deals with the synthesis of fuzzy state feedback controller of induction motor with optimal performance. First, the Takagi-Sugeno (T-S) fuzzy model is employed to approximate a non linear system in the synchronous d-q frame rotating with electromagnetic field-oriented. Next, a fuzzy controller is designed to stabilise the induction motor and guaranteed a minimum disturbance attenuation level for the closed-loop system. The gains of fuzzy control are obtained by solving a set of Linear Matrix Inequality (LMI). Finally, simulation results are given to demonstrate the controller-s effectiveness.

Keywords: Rejection disturbance, fuzzy modelling, open-loop control, Fuzzy feedback controller, fuzzy observer, Linear Matrix Inequality (LMI)

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3403 Designing Intelligent Adaptive Controller for Nonlinear Pendulum Dynamical System

Authors: R. Ghasemi, M. R. Rahimi Khoygani

Abstract:

This paper proposes the designing direct adaptive neural controller to apply for a class of a nonlinear pendulum dynamic system. The radial basis function (RBF) neural adaptive controller is robust in presence of external and internal uncertainties. Both the effectiveness of the controller and robustness against disturbances are importance of this paper. The simulation results show the promising performance of the proposed controller.

Keywords: Adaptive Neural Controller, Nonlinear Dynamical, Neural Network, RBF, Driven Pendulum, Position Control.

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3402 Prime(Semiprime) Fuzzy h-ideal in Γ-hemiring

Authors: Sujit Kumar Sardar, Debabrata Mandal

Abstract:

The notions of prime(semiprime) fuzzy h-ideal(h-biideal, h-quasi-ideal) in Γ-hemiring are introduced and some of their characterizations are obtained by using "belongingness(∈)" and "quasi - coincidence(q)". Cartesian product of prime(semiprime) fuzzy h-ideals of Γ-hemirings are also investigated.

Keywords: Γ-hemiring, Fuzzy h-ideals, Prime fuzzy left h-ideal, Prime(semiprime) (∈, ∈ ∨q)-fuzzy left h-bi-ideal(h-ideal, h-quasiideal), Cartesian product

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3401 Consumer Product Demand Forecasting based on Artificial Neural Network and Support Vector Machine

Authors: Karin Kandananond

Abstract:

The nature of consumer products causes the difficulty in forecasting the future demands and the accuracy of the forecasts significantly affects the overall performance of the supply chain system. In this study, two data mining methods, artificial neural network (ANN) and support vector machine (SVM), were utilized to predict the demand of consumer products. The training data used was the actual demand of six different products from a consumer product company in Thailand. The results indicated that SVM had a better forecast quality (in term of MAPE) than ANN in every category of products. Moreover, another important finding was the margin difference of MAPE from these two methods was significantly high when the data was highly correlated.

Keywords: Artificial neural network (ANN), Bullwhip effect, Consumer products, Demand forecasting, Supply chain, Support vector machine (SVM).

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3400 Prediction of Compressive Strength of SCC Containing Bottom Ash using Artificial Neural Networks

Authors: Yogesh Aggarwal, Paratibha Aggarwal

Abstract:

The paper presents a comparative performance of the models developed to predict 28 days compressive strengths using neural network techniques for data taken from literature (ANN-I) and data developed experimentally for SCC containing bottom ash as partial replacement of fine aggregates (ANN-II). The data used in the models are arranged in the format of six and eight input parameters that cover the contents of cement, sand, coarse aggregate, fly ash as partial replacement of cement, bottom ash as partial replacement of sand, water and water/powder ratio, superplasticizer dosage and an output parameter that is 28-days compressive strength and compressive strengths at 7 days, 28 days, 90 days and 365 days, respectively for ANN-I and ANN-II. The importance of different input parameters is also given for predicting the strengths at various ages using neural network. The model developed from literature data could be easily extended to the experimental data, with bottom ash as partial replacement of sand with some modifications.

Keywords: Self compacting concrete, bottom ash, strength, prediction, neural network, importance factor.

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3399 Forecasting e-Learning Efficiency by Using Artificial Neural Networks and a Balanced Score Card

Authors: Petar Halachev

Abstract:

Forecasting the values of the indicators, which characterize the effectiveness of performance of organizations is of great importance for their successful development. Such forecasting is necessary in order to assess the current state and to foresee future developments, so that measures to improve the organization-s activity could be undertaken in time. The article presents an overview of the applied mathematical and statistical methods for developing forecasts. Special attention is paid to artificial neural networks as a forecasting tool. Their strengths and weaknesses are analyzed and a synopsis is made of the application of artificial neural networks in the field of forecasting of the values of different education efficiency indicators. A method of evaluation of the activity of universities using the Balanced Scorecard is proposed and Key Performance Indicators for assessment of e-learning are selected. Resulting indicators for the evaluation of efficiency of the activity are proposed. An artificial neural network is constructed and applied in the forecasting of the values of indicators for e-learning efficiency on the basis of the KPI values.

Keywords: artificial neural network, balanced scorecard, e-learning

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