Search results for: Risk model
7827 Risk Management Strategy for Protecting Cultural Heritage: Case Study of the Institute of Egypt
Authors: Amany A. Ragheb, Ghada Ragheb, Abd ElRahman A.
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Egypt has a countless heritage of mansions, castles, cities, towns, villages, industrial and manufacturing sites. This richness of heritage provides endless and matchless prospects for culture. Despite being famous worldwide, Egypt’s heritage still is in constant need of protection. Political conflicts and religious revolutions form a direct threat to buildings in various areas, historic, archaeological sites, and religious monuments. Egypt has witnessed two revolutions in less than 60 years; both had an impact on its architectural heritage. In this paper, the authors aim to review legal and policy framework to protect the cultural heritage and present the risk management strategy for cultural heritage in conflict. Through a review of selected international models of devastated architectural heritage in conflict zones and highlighting some of their changes, we can learn from the experiences of other countries to assist towards the development of a methodology to halt the plundering of architectural heritage. Finally, the paper makes an effort to enhance the formulation of a risk management strategy for protection and conservation of cultural heritage, through which to end the plundering of Egypt’s architectural legacy in the Egyptian community (revolutions, 1952 and 2011); and by presenting to its surrounding community the benefits derived from maintaining it.
Keywords: Cultural heritage, legal regulation, risk management, preservation.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 14087826 The Innovative Information System for Systemic Approach of the Sustainability in the Enterprise
Authors: M. Izvercianu, L. Ivascu
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This paper presents an innovative computer system that contributes to sustainable development of the enterprise. The research refers to a rethinking of traditional systems of collaboration and risk assessment, present in any organization, leading to a sustainable enterprise. This concept integrates emerging tools that allow the implementation and exploitation of the collective intelligence of the enterprise, allowing the exchange of contextual, agile and simplified information, and collaboration with networks of customers and partners in an environment where risks are controlled. Risk assessment is done in a systemic way: the enterprise as the system compared to the contained departments and the enterprise as a subsystem compared to: families of international standards and sustainability-s responsibilities. The enterprise, in this systemic vision, responds to the requirements that any existing system to operate continuously in an indefinite future without reaching key resource depletion. The research is done by integrating collaborative science, engineering, management, psychology, obtaining thus a cornerstone of sustainable development of the enterprise.Keywords: Enterprise 2.0, ISO, Risk management, Sustainable development
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 16867825 BER Performance of UWB Modulations through S-V Channel Model
Authors: Risanuri Hidayat
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BER analysis of Impulse Radio Ultra Wideband (IRUWB) pulse modulations over S-V channel model is proposed in this paper. The UWB pulse is Gaussian monocycle pulse modulated using Pulse Amplitude Modulation (PAM) and Pulse Position Modulation (PPM). The channel model is generated from a modified S-V model. Bit-error rate (BER) is measured over several of bit rates. The result shows that all modulation are appropriate for both LOS and NLOS channel, but PAM gives better performance in bit rates and SNR. Moreover, as standard of speed has been given for UWB, the communication is appropriate with high bit rates in LOS channel.
Keywords: IR-UWB, S-V Channel Model, LOS NLOS, PAM, PPM
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 23347824 Overview of CARDIOSENSOR Project on the Development of a Nanosensor for Assessing the Risk of Cardiovascular Disease
Authors: A.C. Duarte, C.I.L. Justino, K. Duarte, A.C. Freitas, R. Pereira, P. Chaves, P. Bettencourt, S. Cardoso, T.A.P. Rocha-Santos
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This paper aims at overviewing the topics of a research project (CARDIOSENSOR) on the field of health sciences (biomaterials and biomedical engineering). The project has focused on the development of a nanosensor for the assessment of the risk of cardiovascular diseases by the monitoring of C-reactive protein (CRP), which has been currently considered as the best validated inflammatory biomarker associated to cardiovascular diseases. The project involves tasks such as: 1) the development of sensor devices based on field effect transistors (FET): assembly, optimization and validation; 2) application of sensors to the detection of CRP in standard solutions and comparison with enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA); and 3) application of sensors to real samples such as blood and saliva and evaluation of their ability to predict the risk of cardiovascular disease.
Keywords: Carbon nanotubes field effect transistors, cardiovascular diseases, C-reactive protein, sensor.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 20297823 Behavioral Modeling Accuracy for RF Power Amplifier with Memory Effects
Authors: Chokri Jebali, Noureddine Boulejfen, Ali Gharsallah, Fadhel M. Ghannouchi
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In this paper, a system level behavioural model for RF power amplifier, which exhibits memory effects, and based on multibranch system is proposed. When higher order terms are included, the memory polynomial model (MPM) exhibits numerical instabilities. A set of memory orthogonal polynomial model (OMPM) is introduced to alleviate the numerical instability problem associated to MPM model. A data scaling and centring algorithm was applied to improve the power amplifier modeling accuracy. Simulation results prove that the numerical instability can be greatly reduced, as well as the model precision improved with nonlinear model.Keywords: power amplifier, orthogonal model, polynomialmodel , memory effects.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 22627822 An Output Oriented Super-Efficiency Model for Considering Time Lag Effect
Authors: Yanshuang Zhang, Byungho Jeong
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There exists some time lag between the consumption of inputs and the production of outputs. This time lag effect should be considered in calculating efficiency of decision making units (DMU). Recently, a couple of DEA models were developed for considering time lag effect in efficiency evaluation of research activities. However, these models can’t discriminate efficient DMUs because of the nature of basic DEA model in which efficiency scores are limited to ‘1’. This problem can be resolved a super-efficiency model. However, a super efficiency model sometimes causes infeasibility problem. This paper suggests an output oriented super-efficiency model for efficiency evaluation under the consideration of time lag effect. A case example using a long term research project is given to compare the suggested model with the MpO model.
Keywords: DEA, Super-efficiency, Time Lag.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 26767821 An Aggregate Production Planning Model for Brass Casting Industry in Fuzzy Environment
Authors: Ömer Faruk Baykoç, Ümit Sami Sakalli
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In this paper, we propose a fuzzy aggregate production planning (APP) model for blending problem in a brass factory which is the problem of computing optimal amounts of raw materials for the total production of several types of brass in a period. The model has deterministic and imprecise parameters which follows triangular possibility distributions. The brass casting APP model can not always be solved by using common approaches used in the literature. Therefore a mathematical model is presented for solving this problem. In the proposed model, the Lai and Hwang-s fuzzy ranking concept is relaxed by using one constraint instead of three constraints. An application of the brass casting APP model in a brass factory shows that the proposed model successfully solves the multi-blend problem in casting process and determines the optimal raw material purchasing policies.Keywords: Aggregate production planning, Blending, brasscasting, possibilistic programming.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 18997820 Towards a Measurement-Based E-Government Portals Maturity Model
Authors: Abdoullah Fath-Allah, Laila Cheikhi, Rafa E. Al-Qutaish, Ali Idri
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The e-government emerging concept transforms the way in which the citizens are dealing with their governments. Thus, the citizens can execute the intended services online anytime and anywhere. This results in great benefits for both the governments (reduces the number of officers) and the citizens (more flexibility and time saving). Therefore, building a maturity model to assess the egovernment portals becomes desired to help in the improvement process of such portals. This paper aims at proposing an egovernment maturity model based on the measurement of the best practices’ presence. The main benefit of such maturity model is to provide a way to rank an e-government portal based on the used best practices, and also giving a set of recommendations to go to the higher stage in the maturity model.
Keywords: Best practices, e-government portal, maturity model, quality model.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 21047819 An Improved Phenomenological Model for Polymer Desorption
Authors: Joanna Sooknanan, Donna Comissiong
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We propose a phenomenological model for the process of polymer desorption. In so doing, we omit the usual theoretical approach of incorporating a fictitious viscoelastic stress term into the flux equation. As a result, we obtain a model that captures the essence of the phenomenon of trapping skinning, while preserving the integrity of the experimentally verified Fickian law for diffusion. An appropriate asymptotic analysis is carried out, and a parameter is introduced to represent the speed of the desorption front. Numerical simulations are performed to illustrate the desorption dynamics of the model. Recommendations are made for future modifications of the model, and provisions are made for the inclusion of experimentally determined frontal speeds.Keywords: Phenomenological Model, Polymer, Desorption, Trapping Skinning
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 12867818 Perceptions of Cybersecurity in Government Organizations: Case Study of Bhutan
Authors: Pema Choejey, David Murray, Chun Che Fung
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Bhutan is becoming increasingly dependent on Information and Communications Technologies (ICTs), especially the Internet for performing the daily activities of governments, businesses, and individuals. Consequently, information systems and networks are becoming more exposed and vulnerable to cybersecurity threats. This paper highlights the findings of the survey study carried out to understand the perceptions of cybersecurity implementation among government organizations in Bhutan. About 280 ICT personnel were surveyed about the effectiveness of cybersecurity implementation in their organizations. A questionnaire based on a 5 point Likert scale was used to assess the perceptions of respondents. The questions were asked on cybersecurity practices such as cybersecurity policies, awareness and training, and risk management. The survey results show that less than 50% of respondents believe that the cybersecurity implementation is effective: cybersecurity policy (40%), risk management (23%), training and awareness (28%), system development life cycle (34%); incident management (26%), and communications and operational management (40%). The findings suggest that many of the cybersecurity practices are inadequately implemented and therefore, there exist a gap in achieving a required cybersecurity posture. This study recommends government organizations to establish a comprehensive cybersecurity program with emphasis on cybersecurity policy, risk management, and awareness and training. In addition, the research study has practical implications to both government and private organizations for implementing and managing cybersecurity.
Keywords: Awareness and training, cybersecurity, cybersecurity policy, risk management, security risks.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 15457817 The Maximum Likelihood Method of Random Coefficient Dynamic Regression Model
Authors: Autcha Araveeporn
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The Random Coefficient Dynamic Regression (RCDR) model is to developed from Random Coefficient Autoregressive (RCA) model and Autoregressive (AR) model. The RCDR model is considered by adding exogenous variables to RCA model. In this paper, the concept of the Maximum Likelihood (ML) method is used to estimate the parameter of RCDR(1,1) model. Simulation results have shown the AIC and BIC criterion to compare the performance of the the RCDR(1,1) model. The variables as the stationary and weakly stationary data are good estimates where the exogenous variables are weakly stationary. However, the model selection indicated that variables are nonstationarity data based on the stationary data of the exogenous variables.Keywords: Autoregressive, Maximum Likelihood Method, Nonstationarity, Random Coefficient Dynamic Regression, Stationary.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 16367816 Human Body Configuration using Bayesian Model
Authors: Rui. Zhang, Yiming. Pi
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In this paper we present a novel approach for human Body configuration based on the Silhouette. We propose to address this problem under the Bayesian framework. We use an effective Model based MCMC (Markov Chain Monte Carlo) method to solve the configuration problem, in which the best configuration could be defined as MAP (maximize a posteriori probability) in Bayesian model. This model based MCMC utilizes the human body model to drive the MCMC sampling from the solution space. It converses the original high dimension space into a restricted sub-space constructed by the human model and uses a hybrid sampling algorithm. We choose an explicit human model and carefully select the likelihood functions to represent the best configuration solution. The experiments show that this method could get an accurate configuration and timesaving for different human from multi-views.Keywords: Bayesian framework, MCMC, model based, human body configuration.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 13027815 Hybrid Structure Learning Approach for Assessing the Phosphate Laundries Impact
Authors: Emna Benmohamed, Hela Ltifi, Mounir Ben Ayed
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Bayesian Network (BN) is one of the most efficient classification methods. It is widely used in several fields (i.e., medical diagnostics, risk analysis, bioinformatics research). The BN is defined as a probabilistic graphical model that represents a formalism for reasoning under uncertainty. This classification method has a high-performance rate in the extraction of new knowledge from data. The construction of this model consists of two phases for structure learning and parameter learning. For solving this problem, the K2 algorithm is one of the representative data-driven algorithms, which is based on score and search approach. In addition, the integration of the expert's knowledge in the structure learning process allows the obtainment of the highest accuracy. In this paper, we propose a hybrid approach combining the improvement of the K2 algorithm called K2 algorithm for Parents and Children search (K2PC) and the expert-driven method for learning the structure of BN. The evaluation of the experimental results, using the well-known benchmarks, proves that our K2PC algorithm has better performance in terms of correct structure detection. The real application of our model shows its efficiency in the analysis of the phosphate laundry effluents' impact on the watershed in the Gafsa area (southwestern Tunisia).
Keywords: Classification, Bayesian network; structure learning, K2 algorithm, expert knowledge, surface water analysis.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 4987814 Steady-State Performance of a New Model for UPFC Applied to Multi-Machines System with Nonlinear Load
Authors: S.Ali Al-Mawsawi
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In this paper, a new developed construction model of the UPFC is proposed. The construction of this model consists of one shunt compensation block and two series compensation blocks. In this case, the UPFC with the new construction model will be investigated when it is installed in multi-machine systems with nonlinear load model. In addition, the steady–state performance of the new model operating as impedance compensation will be presented and compared with that obtained from the system without compensation.Keywords: UPFC, PWM, Nonlinear load, Multi-Machines system
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 18117813 Order Penetration Point Location using Fuzzy Quadratic Programming
Authors: Hamed Rafiei, Masoud Rabbani
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This paper addresses one of the most important issues have been considered in hybrid MTS/MTO production environments. To cope with the problem, a mathematical programming model is applied from a tactical point of view. The model is converted to a fuzzy goal programming model, because a degree of uncertainty is involved in hybrid MTS/MTO context. Finally, application of the proposed model in an industrial center is reported and the results prove the validity of the model.Keywords: Fuzzy sets theory, Hybrid MTS/MTO, Order penetration point, Quadratic programming.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 15847812 Predictive Model of Sensor Readings for a Mobile Robot
Authors: Krzysztof Fujarewicz
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This paper presents a predictive model of sensor readings for mobile robot. The model predicts sensor readings for given time horizon based on current sensor readings and velocities of wheels assumed for this horizon. Similar models for such anticipation have been proposed in the literature. The novelty of the model presented in the paper comes from the fact that its structure takes into account physical phenomena and is not just a black box, for example a neural network. From this point of view it may be regarded as a semi-phenomenological model. The model is developed for the Khepera robot, but after certain modifications, it may be applied for any robot with distance sensors such as infrared or ultrasonic sensors.
Keywords: Mobile robot, sensors, prediction, anticipation.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 14387811 Statistical Models of Network Traffic
Authors: Barath Kumar, Oliver Niggemann, Juergen Jasperneite
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Model-based approaches have been applied successfully to a wide range of tasks such as specification, simulation, testing, and diagnosis. But one bottleneck often prevents the introduction of these ideas: Manual modeling is a non-trivial, time-consuming task. Automatically deriving models by observing and analyzing running systems is one possible way to amend this bottleneck. To derive a model automatically, some a-priori knowledge about the model structure–i.e. about the system–must exist. Such a model formalism would be used as follows: (i) By observing the network traffic, a model of the long-term system behavior could be generated automatically, (ii) Test vectors can be generated from the model, (iii) While the system is running, the model could be used to diagnose non-normal system behavior. The main contribution of this paper is the introduction of a model formalism called 'probabilistic regression automaton' suitable for the tasks mentioned above.Keywords: Model-based approach, Probabilistic regression automata, Statistical models and Timed automata.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 15317810 Spatially Random Sampling for Retail Food Risk Factors Study
Authors: Guilan Huang
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In 2013 and 2014, the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) collected data from selected fast food restaurants and full service restaurants for tracking changes in the occurrence of foodborne illness risk factors. This paper discussed how we customized spatial random sampling method by considering financial position and availability of FDA resources, and how we enriched restaurants data with location. Location information of restaurants provides opportunity for quantitatively determining random sampling within non-government units (e.g.: 240 kilometers around each data-collector). Spatial analysis also could optimize data-collectors’ work plans and resource allocation. Spatial analytic and processing platform helped us handling the spatial random sampling challenges. Our method fits in FDA’s ability to pinpoint features of foodservice establishments, and reduced both time and expense on data collection.
Keywords: Geospatial technology, restaurant, retail food risk factors study, spatial random sampling.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 14497809 Paremaeter Determination of a Vehicle 5-DOF Model to Simulate Occupant Deceleration in a Frontal Crash
Authors: Javad Marzbanrad, Mostafa Pahlavani
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This study has investigated a vehicle Lumped Parameter Model (LPM) in frontal crash. There are several ways for determining spring and damper characteristics and type of problem shall be considered as system identification. This study use Genetic Algorithm (GA) procedure, being an effective procedure in case of optimization issues, for optimizing errors, between target data (experimental data) and calculated results (being obtained by analytical solving). In this study analyzed model in 5-DOF then compared our results with 5-DOF serial model. Finally, the response of model due to external excitement is investigated.Keywords: Vehicle, Lumped-Parameter Model, GeneticAlgorithm, Optimization
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 16667808 An Application for Risk of Crime Prediction Using Machine Learning
Authors: Luis Fonseca, Filipe Cabral Pinto, Susana Sargento
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The increase of the world population, especially in large urban centers, has resulted in new challenges particularly with the control and optimization of public safety. Thus, in the present work, a solution is proposed for the prediction of criminal occurrences in a city based on historical data of incidents and demographic information. The entire research and implementation will be presented start with the data collection from its original source, the treatment and transformations applied to them, choice and the evaluation and implementation of the Machine Learning model up to the application layer. Classification models will be implemented to predict criminal risk for a given time interval and location. Machine Learning algorithms such as Random Forest, Neural Networks, K-Nearest Neighbors and Logistic Regression will be used to predict occurrences, and their performance will be compared according to the data processing and transformation used. The results show that the use of Machine Learning techniques helps to anticipate criminal occurrences, which contributed to the reinforcement of public security. Finally, the models were implemented on a platform that will provide an API to enable other entities to make requests for predictions in real-time. An application will also be presented where it is possible to show criminal predictions visually.Keywords: Crime prediction, machine learning, public safety, smart city.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 12887807 The Establishment of RELAP5/SNAP Model for Kuosheng Nuclear Power Plant
Authors: C. Shih, J. R. Wang, H. C. Chang, S. W. Chen, S. C. Chiang, T. Y. Yu
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After the measurement uncertainty recapture (MUR) power uprates, Kuosheng nuclear power plant (NPP) was uprated the power from 2894 MWt to 2943 MWt. For power upgrade, several codes (e.g., TRACE, RELAP5, etc.) were applied to assess the safety of Kuosheng NPP. Hence, the main work of this research is to establish a RELAP5/MOD3.3 model of Kuosheng NPP with SNAP interface. The establishment of RELAP5/SNAP model was referred to the FSAR, training documents, and TRACE model which has been developed and verified before. After completing the model establishment, the startup test scenarios would be applied to the RELAP5/SNAP model. With comparing the startup test data and TRACE analysis results, the applicability of RELAP5/SNAP model would be assessed.
Keywords: RELAP5, TRACE, SNAP, BWR.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 11707806 Perceptions of Climate Change Risk to Forest Ecosystems: A Case Study of Patale Community Forestry User Group, Nepal
Authors: N. R. P Withana, E. Auch
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The purpose of this study was to investigate perceptions of climate change risk to forest ecosystems and forestbased communities as well as perceived effectiveness of adaptation strategies for climate change as well as challenges for adaptation. Data was gathered using a pre-tested semi-structured questionnaire. Simple random selection technique was applied. For the majority of issues, the responses were obtained on multi-point likert scales, and the scores provided were, in turn, used to estimate the means and other useful estimates. A composite knowledge index developed using correct responses to a set of self-rated statements were used to evaluate the issues. The mean of the knowledge index was 0.64. Also all respondents recorded values of the knowledge index above 0.25. Increase forest fire was perceived by respondents as the greatest risk to forest eco-system. Decrease access to water supplies was perceived as the greatest risk to livelihoods of forest based communities. The most effective adaptation strategy relevant to climate change risks to forest eco-systems and forest based communities livelihoods in Kathmandu valley in Nepal as perceived by the respondents was reforestation and afforestation. As well, lack of public awareness was perceived as the major limitation for climate change adaptation. However, perceived risks as well as effective adaptation strategies showed an inconsistent association with knowledge indicators and social-cultural variables. The results provide useful information to any party who involve with climate change issues in Nepal, since such attempts would be more effective once the people’s perceptions on these aspects are taken into account.
Keywords: Climate change, forest ecosystems, forest-based communities, risk perceptions.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 22867805 Hybrid Methods for Optimisation of Weights in Spatial Multi-Criteria Evaluation Decision for Fire Risk and Hazard
Authors: I. Yakubu, D. Mireku-Gyimah, D. Asafo-Adjei
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The challenge for everyone involved in preserving the ecosystem is to find creative ways to protect and restore the remaining ecosystems while accommodating and enhancing the country social and economic well-being. Frequent fires of anthropogenic origin have been affecting the ecosystems in many countries adversely. Hence adopting ways of decision making such as Multicriteria Decision Making (MCDM) is appropriate since it will enhance the evaluation and analysis of fire risk and hazard of the ecosystem. In this paper, fire risk and hazard data from the West Gonja area of Ghana were used in some of the methods (Analytical Hierarchy Process, Compromise Programming, and Grey Relational Analysis (GRA) for MCDM evaluation and analysis to determine the optimal weight method for fire risk and hazard. Ranking of the land cover types was carried out using; Fire Hazard, Fire Fighting Capacity and Response Risk Criteria. Pairwise comparison under Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) was used to determine the weight of the various criteria. Weights for sub-criteria were also obtained by the pairwise comparison method. The results were optimised using GRA and Compromise Programming (CP). The results from each method, hybrid GRA and CP, were compared and it was established that all methods were satisfactory in terms of optimisation of weight. The most optimal method for spatial multicriteria evaluation was the hybrid GRA method. Thus, a hybrid AHP and GRA method is more effective method for ranking alternatives in MCDM than the hybrid AHP and CP method.
Keywords: Compromise programming, grey relational analysis, spatial multi-criteria, weight optimisation.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 6427804 VaR Forecasting in Times of Increased Volatility
Authors: Ivo Jánský, Milan Rippel
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The paper evaluates several hundred one-day-ahead VaR forecasting models in the time period between the years 2004 and 2009 on data from six world stock indices - DJI, GSPC, IXIC, FTSE, GDAXI and N225. The models model mean using the ARMA processes with up to two lags and variance with one of GARCH, EGARCH or TARCH processes with up to two lags. The models are estimated on the data from the in-sample period and their forecasting accuracy is evaluated on the out-of-sample data, which are more volatile. The main aim of the paper is to test whether a model estimated on data with lower volatility can be used in periods with higher volatility. The evaluation is based on the conditional coverage test and is performed on each stock index separately. The primary result of the paper is that the volatility is best modelled using a GARCH process and that an ARMA process pattern cannot be found in analyzed time series.Keywords: VaR, risk analysis, conditional volatility, garch, egarch, tarch, moving average process, autoregressive process
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 14197803 Finite Element and Subspace Identification Approaches to Model Development of a Smart Acoustic Box with Experimental Verification
Authors: Tamara Nestorović, Jean Lefèvre, Stefan Ringwelski, Ulrich Gabbert
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Two approaches for model development of a smart acoustic box are suggested in this paper: the finite element (FE) approach and the subspace identification. Both approaches result in a state-space model, which can be used for obtaining the frequency responses and for the controller design. In order to validate the developed FE model and to perform the subspace identification, an experimental set-up with the acoustic box and dSPACE system was used. Experimentally obtained frequency responses show good agreement with the frequency responses obtained from the FE model and from the identified model.
Keywords: Acoustic box, experimental verification, finite element model, subspace identification.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 15527802 The Risk Factors Associated with Under-Five Mortality in Lesotho Using the 2009 Lesotho Demographic and Health Survey
Authors: T. Motsima
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The under-5 mortality rate is high in sub-Saharan Africa with Lesotho being amongst the highest under-5 mortality rates in the world. The objective of the study is to determine the factors associated with under-5 mortality in Lesotho. The data used for this analysis come from the nationally representative household survey called the 2009 Lesotho Demographic and Health Survey. Odds ratios produced by the logistic regression models were used to measure the effect of each independent variable on the dependent variable. Female children were significantly 38% less likely to die than male children. Children who were breastfed for 13 to 18 months and those who were breastfed for more than 19 months were significantly less likely to die than those who were breastfed for 12 months or less. Furthermore, children of mothers who stayed in Quthing, Qacha’s Nek and Thaba Tseka ran the greatest risk of dying. The results suggested that: sex of child, type of birth, breastfeeding duration, district, source of energy and marital status were significant predictors of under-5 mortality, after correcting for all variables.
Keywords: Under-5 mortality, risk factors, millennium development goals, breastfeeding, logistic regression.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 14687801 Using Ontology Search in the Design of Class Diagram from Business Process Model
Authors: Wararat Rungworawut, Twittie Senivongse
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Business process model describes process flow of a business and can be seen as the requirement for developing a software application. This paper discusses a BPM2CD guideline which complements the Model Driven Architecture concept by suggesting how to create a platform-independent software model in the form of a UML class diagram from a business process model. An important step is the identification of UML classes from the business process model. A technique for object-oriented analysis called domain analysis is borrowed and key concepts in the business process model will be discovered and proposed as candidate classes for the class diagram. The paper enhances this step by using ontology search to help identify important classes for the business domain. As ontology is a source of knowledge for a particular domain which itself can link to ontologies of related domains, the search can give a refined set of candidate classes for the resulting class diagram.Keywords: Business Process Model, Model DrivenArchitecture, Ontology, UML Class Diagram.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 24617800 Risk Assessment for Aerial Package Delivery
Authors: Haluk Eren, Ümit Çelik
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Recent developments in unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) have begun to attract intense interest. UAVs started to use for many different applications from military to civilian use. Some online retailer and logistics companies are testing the UAV delivery. UAVs have great potentials to reduce cost and time of deliveries and responding to emergencies in a short time. Despite these great positive sides, just a few works have been done for routing of UAVs for package deliveries. As known, transportation of goods from one place to another may have many hazards on delivery route due to falling hazards that can be exemplified as ground objects or air obstacles. This situation refers to wide-range insurance concept. For this reason, deliveries that are made with drones get into the scope of shipping insurance. On the other hand, air traffic was taken into account in the absence of unmanned aerial vehicle. But now, it has been a reality for aerial fields. In this study, the main goal is to conduct risk analysis of package delivery services using drone, based on delivery routes.
Keywords: Drone risk assessment, drone package delivery.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 19237799 3D Face Modeling based on 3D Dense Morphable Face Shape Model
Authors: Yongsuk Jang Kim, Sun-Tae Chung, Boogyun Kim, Seongwon Cho
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Realistic 3D face model is more precise in representing pose, illumination, and expression of face than 2D face model so that it can be utilized usefully in various applications such as face recognition, games, avatars, animations, and etc. In this paper, we propose a 3D face modeling method based on 3D dense morphable shape model. The proposed 3D modeling method first constructs a 3D dense morphable shape model from 3D face scan data obtained using a 3D scanner. Next, the proposed method extracts and matches facial landmarks from 2D image sequence containing a face to be modeled, and then reconstructs 3D vertices coordinates of the landmarks using a factorization-based SfM technique. Then, the proposed method obtains a 3D dense shape model of the face to be modeled by fitting the constructed 3D dense morphable shape model into the reconstructed 3D vertices. Also, the proposed method makes a cylindrical texture map using 2D face image sequence. Finally, the proposed method generates a 3D face model by rendering the 3D dense face shape model using the cylindrical texture map. Through building processes of 3D face model by the proposed method, it is shown that the proposed method is relatively easy, fast and precise.Keywords: 3D Face Modeling, 3D Morphable Shape Model, 3DReconstruction, 3D Correspondence.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 24127798 Secure Mobile E-Business Applications
Authors: Hala A. Alrumaih
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It is widely believed that mobile device is a promising technology for lending the opportunity for the third wave of electronic commerce. Mobile devices have changed the way companies do business. Many applications are under development or being incorporated into business processes. In this day, mobile applications are a vital component of any industry strategy.One of the greatest benefits of selling merchandise and providing services on a mobile application is that it widens a company’s customer base significantly.Mobile applications are accessible to interested customers across regional and international borders in different electronic business (e-business) area. But there is a dark side to this success story. The security risks associated with mobile devices and applications are very significant. This paper introduces a broad risk analysis for the various threats, vulnerabilities, and risks in mobile e-business applications and presents some important risk mitigation approaches. It reviews and compares two different frameworks for security assurance in mobile e-business applications. Based on the comparison, the paper suggests some recommendations for applications developers and business owners in mobile e-business application development process.
Keywords: E-business, Mobile Applications, Risk mitigations, Security assurance.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 2490