Search results for: financial socialization

Authors: Ivan Lovrinović, Gordana Kordić, Martina Nakić

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There are little subjects in macroeconomics that are so widely discussed, but at the same time controversial and without a clear solution such as the choice of exchange rate regime. National authorities need to take into consideration numerous fundamentals, trying to fulfil goals of economic growth, low and stable inflation and international stability. This paper focuses on the countries of ex- Yugoslavia and their exchange rate history as independent states. We follow the development of the regimes in 6 countries during the transition through the financial crisis of the second part of the 2000s to the prospects of their final goal: full membership in the European Union. Main question is to what extent has the exchange regime contributed to their economic success, considering other objective factors.

Keywords: European Union, exchange rate regime, ex- Yugoslavia countries

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Authors: Jill Stephenson, Marie Vaganay, Robert Cameron, Caoimhe McGurk, Neil Hewitt

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Purpose: The key aim of the research was to identify the secondary stressors experienced by businesses affected by single or repeated flooding and to determine to what extent businesses were affected by these stressors, along with any resulting impact on health. Additionally the research aimed to establish the likelihood of businesses being re-exposed to the secondary stressors through assessing awareness of flood risk, implementation of property protection measures and level of community resilience. Design/methodology/approach: The chosen research method involved the distribution of a questionnaire survey to businesses affected by either single or repeated flood events. The questionnaire included the Impact of Event Scale (a 15-item self-report measure which assesses subjective distress caused by traumatic events). Findings: 55 completed questionnaires were returned by flood impacted businesses. 89% of the businesses had sustained internal flooding, while 11% had experienced external flooding. The results established that the key secondary stressors experienced by businesses, in order of priority, were: flood damage, fear of reoccurring flooding, prevention of access to the premise/closure, loss of income, repair works, length of closure and insurance issues. There was a lack of preparedness for potential future floods and consequent vulnerability to the emergence of secondary stressors among flood affected businesses, as flood resistance or flood resilience measures had only been implemented by 11% and 13% respectively. In relation to the psychological repercussions, the Impact of Event scores suggested that potential prevalence of posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD) was noted among 8 out of 55 respondents (l5%). Originality/value: The results improve understanding of the enduring repercussions of flood events on businesses, indicating that not only residents may be susceptible to the detrimental health impacts of flood events and single flood events may be just as likely as reoccurring flooding to contribute to ongoing stress. Lack of financial resources is a possible explanation for the lack of implementation of property protection measures among businesses, despite 49% experiencing flooding on multiple occasions. Therefore it is recommended that policymakers should consider potential sources of financial support or grants towards flood defences for flood impacted businesses. Any form of assistance should be made available to businesses at the earliest opportunity as there was no significant association between the time of the last flood event and the likelihood of experiencing PTSD symptoms.

Keywords: Flood event, flood resilience, flood resistance, PTSD, secondary stressors.

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Authors: Malaw Ndiaye, Karim Konate

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Smart contracts are computer protocols that facilitate, verify, and execute the negotiation or execution of a contract, or that render a contractual term unnecessary. Blockchain and smart contracts can be used to facilitate almost any financial transaction. Thanks to these smart contracts, the settlement of dividends and coupons could be automated. Smart contracts have become lucrative and profitable targets for attackers because they can hold a great amount of money. Smart contracts, although widely used in blockchain technology, are far from perfect due to security concerns. Although a series of attacks are listed, there is a lack of discussions and proposals on improving security. This survey takes stock of smart contract security from a more comprehensive perspective by correlating the level of vulnerability and systematic review of security levels in smart contracts.

Keywords: Blockchain, bitcoin, smart Contract, criminal smart contract, security.

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Authors: Jochen Edmund Kerschenbauer, Roman Salinger, Daniel Strametz

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Insufficient informal communication systems can lead to the first crisis (‘Crisis of Leadership’) for start-ups. Management Control Systems (MCS) are one way for high-technology start-ups to successfully overcome these problems. So far the literature has investigated the incubation of a start-up, but focused less on the post-incubation stage. This paper focuses on the use of MCS in post-incubation and, if failed start-ups agree, on how MCS are used. We conducted 14 semi-structured interviews for this purpose, to obtain our results. The overall conclusion is that the majority of the companies were closed down due to a combination of strategic, operative and financial reasons.

Keywords: Closed down, high-technology, incubation, Levers of Control, management control systems, post-incubation, start-ups.

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Authors: Michalis Menicou, Stavros Christofi, Niki Chartosia, Vassos Vassiliou, Marios Charalambides

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This paper presents preliminary results of a technology assessment analysis for the use of high pressure treatment (HPT) on Halloumi cheese. In particular, it presents the importance of this traditional Cyprus cheese to the island-s economy, explains its production process, and gives a brief introduction to HPT and its application on cheese. More importantly, it offers preliminary results of HPT of Halloumi samples and a preliminary economic feasibility study on the financial implications of the introduction of such technology.

Keywords: Economic feasibility analysis, high pressure treatment, Halloumi cheese, technology assessment

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Authors: Soungwan Kim

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This paper discusses an analysis of how the characteristics of resources at vocational rehabilitation facilities for the disabled affect the improvement of independency skills among people with severe disabilities. The analysis results indicate that more internal financial resources and more connections to local communities among network resources had greater effects on improving the independency of people with severe disabilities. Based on this result, this paper presents strategies for mobilizing resources to improve the independency of people with severe disabilities at vocational rehabilitation facilities.

Keywords: Vocational rehabilitation facility for people with disabilities, types of resources, independency, network resources.

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Authors: Simeon Karafolas, Maciej Woźniak

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Guarantee schemes have been introduced in the economic and financial system as response to difficulties of SMEs for the access to the banking credit. Guarantee companies first appeared at the 19e century. Last wave of the development of those schemes appeared at the decade of 1990’s in particular to the new countries members of the EU. Guarantee schemes are presented as public owned guarantee companies, private ones mainly through a mutual form, but also under a mixed form. The paper based on guarantee schemes of five countries tries to investigate the differences that can exist within different guarantee companies. This investigation is based on some indicators that are time of response to the demand of guarantee, threshold of guarantee, acceptance of applications for guarantee, jobs created or saved and bureaucratic issues. It appears that guarantee companies have not the same reaction to the demand of SMEs and some of them are much more active.

Keywords: DIFASS, Guarantees, Loans.

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Authors: Roberto de Lieto Vollaro, Emanuele de Lieto Vollaro, Gianluca Coltrinari

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The building sector is responsible, in many industrialized countries, for about 40% of the total energy requirements, so it seems necessary to devote some efforts in this area in order to achieve a significant reduction of energy consumption and of greenhouse gases emissions. The paper presents a study aiming at providing a design methodology able to identify the best configuration of the system building/plant, from a technical, economic and environmentally point of view. Normally, the classical approach involves a building's energy loads analysis under steady state conditions, and subsequent selection of measures aimed at improving the energy performance, based on previous experience made by architects and engineers in the design team. Instead, the proposed approach uses a sequence of two wellknown scientifically validated calculation methods (TRNSYS and RETScreen), that allow quite a detailed feasibility analysis. To assess the validity of the calculation model, an existing, historical building in Central Italy, that will be the object of restoration and preservative redevelopment, was selected as a casestudy. The building is made of a basement and three floors, with a total floor area of about 3,000 square meters. The first step has been the determination of the heating and cooling energy loads of the building in a dynamic regime by means, which allows simulating the real energy needs of the building in function of its use. Traditional methodologies, based as they are on steady-state conditions, cannot faithfully reproduce the effects of varying climatic conditions and of inertial properties of the structure. With this model is possible to obtain quite accurate and reliable results that allow identifying effective combinations building-HVAC system. The second step has consisted of using output data obtained as input to the calculation model, which enables to compare different system configurations from the energy, environmental and financial point of view, with an analysis of investment, and operation and maintenance costs, so allowing determining the economic benefit of possible interventions. The classical methodology often leads to the choice of conventional plant systems, while our calculation model provides a financial-economic assessment for innovative energy systems and low environmental impact. Computational analysis can help in the design phase, particularly in the case of complex structures with centralized plant systems, by comparing the data returned by the calculation model for different design options.

Keywords: Energy, Buildings, Systems, Evaluation.

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Authors: Nikoloudi Anastasia, Tsalampouni Aikaterini

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The present paper aims to present the significant role that the concept of governance can play in order to combine naturals resources as useful funding basis for the formation of a stable and effective welfare state model. The combination of those two different fields aims to represent the modern trends of our era as the means to solve the severe financial and economic issues caused mostly due to the malfunction of the welfare state and its public sector. European Union and Asian countries (especially China) are the main areas of interest since EU experiences a fiscal and economic crisis while China rules the area of the natural resources exploiting 97% of rare earths elements worldwide.

Keywords: Governance, natural resources, rare earths elements, welfare state.

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Authors: Edwaldo R. B. Monteiro, Patricia D. M. Plentz, Edson R. De Pieri

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Mobile robotics is gaining an increasingly important role in modern society. Several potentially dangerous or laborious tasks for human are assigned to mobile robots, which are increasingly capable. Many of these tasks need to be performed within a specified period, i.e, meet a deadline. Missing the deadline can result in financial and/or material losses. Mechanisms for predicting the missing of deadlines are fundamental because corrective actions can be taken to avoid or minimize the losses resulting from missing the deadline. In this work we propose a simple but reliable deadline missing prediction mechanism for mobile robots through the use of historical data and we use the Pioneer 3-DX robot for experiments and simulations, one of the most popular robots in academia.

Keywords: Deadline missing, historical data, mobile robots, prediction mechanism.

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Authors: Alka Obadić

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The research concentrates on the role of tourism in generating female employment and on impact of gender discrimination in tourism sector. Unfortunately, in many countries there are still some barriers to the inclusion of women at all hierarchical levels of tourism labor market. Research analysis focuses on EU countries where tourism is a main employer of women. The analysis shows that women represent over third persons employed in the non-financial business economy and almost two thirds in core tourism activities. Women's gross hourly earnings in accommodation and food services were below those of men in the European Union and only countries who recorded increase of gender pay gap from the beginning of crisis are Bulgaria and Croatia. Women in tourism industry are still overrepresented in lower status jobs with fewer opportunities for career progression and are often treated unequally.

Keywords: Employment, gender discrimination, tourism, women’s participation.

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Authors: I. Lucas, N. Schomberg, F-A. Couturier

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Most empirical studies have analyzed how liquidity risks faced by individual institutions turn into systemic risk. Recent banking crisis has highlighted the importance of grasping and controlling the systemic risk, and the acceptance by Central Banks to ease their monetary policies for saving default or illiquid banks. This last point shows that banks would pay less attention to liquidity risk which, in turn, can become a new important channel of loss. The financial regulation focuses on the most important and “systemic” banks in the global network. However, to quantify the expected loss associated with liquidity risk, it is worth to analyze sensitivity to this channel for the various elements of the global bank network. A small bank is not considered as potentially systemic; however the interaction of small banks all together can become a systemic element. This paper analyzes the impact of medium and small banks interaction on a set of banks which is considered as the core of the network. The proposed method uses the structure of agent-based model in a two-class environment. In first class, the data from actual balance sheets of 22 large and systemic banks (such as BNP Paribas or Barclays) are collected. In second one, to model a network as closely as possible to actual interbank market, 578 fictitious banks smaller than the ones belonging to first class have been split into two groups of small and medium ones. All banks are active on the European interbank network and have deposit and market activity. A simulation of 12 three month periods representing a midterm time interval three years is projected. In each period, there is a set of behavioral descriptions: repayment of matured loans, liquidation of deposits, income from securities, collection of new deposits, new demands of credit, and securities sale. The last two actions are part of refunding process developed in this paper. To strengthen reliability of proposed model, random parameters dynamics are managed with stochastic equations as rates the variations of which are generated by Vasicek model. The Central Bank is considered as the lender of last resort which allows banks to borrow at REPO rate and some ejection conditions of banks from the system are introduced.

Liquidity crunch due to exogenous crisis is simulated in the first class and the loss impact on other bank classes is analyzed though aggregate values representing the aggregate of loans and/or the aggregate of borrowing between classes. It is mainly shown that the three groups of European interbank network do not have the same response, and that intermediate banks are the most sensitive to liquidity risk.

Keywords: Systemic Risk, Financial Contagion, Liquidity Risk, Interbank Market, Network Model.

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Authors: D. Seenivasan, K. Shanthi

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Botnets are one of the most serious and widespread cyber threats. Today botnets have been facilitating many cybercrimes, especially financial, top secret thefts. Botnets can be available for lease in the market and are utilized by the cybercriminals to launch massive attacks like DDoS, click fraud, phishing attacks etc., Several large institutions, hospitals, banks, government organizations and many social networks such as twitter, facebook etc., became the target of the botmasters. Recently, noteworthy researches have been carried out to detect bot, C&C channels, botnet and botmasters. Using many sophisticated technologies, botmasters made botnet a titan of the cyber world. Innumerable challenges have been put forth by the botmasters to the researchers in the detection of botnet. In this paper we present a survey of different types of botnet C&C channels and also provide a comparison of various botnet categories. Finally we hope that our survey will create awareness for forthcoming botnet research endeavors.

Keywords: Bot, Botmaster, Botnet, Botnet cloud, Mobile Botnet.

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Authors: Alan Dormer

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Business rules are widely used within the services sector. They provide consistency and allow relatively unskilled staff to process complex transactions correctly. But there are many examples where the rules themselves have an impact on the costs and profits of an organisation. Financial services, transport and human services are areas where the rules themselves can impact the bottom line in a predictable way. If this is the case, how can we find that set of rules that maximise profit, performance or customer service, or any other key performance indicators? The manufacturing, energy and process industries have embraced mathematical optimisation techniques to improve efficiency, increase production and so on. This paper explores several real world (but simplified) problems in the services sector and shows how business rules can be optimised. It also examines the similarities and differences between the service and other sectors, and how optimisation techniques could be used to deliver similar benefits.

Keywords: Business rules, services, optimisation.

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Authors: András Király, Tamás Varga, János Abonyi

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Since supply chains highly impact the financial performance of companies, it is important to optimize and analyze their Key Performance Indicators (KPI). The synergistic combination of Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO) and Monte Carlo simulation is applied to determine the optimal reorder point of warehouses in supply chains. The goal of the optimization is the minimization of the objective function calculated as the linear combination of holding and order costs. The required values of service levels of the warehouses represent non-linear constraints in the PSO. The results illustrate that the developed stochastic simulator and optimization tool is flexible enough to handle complex situations.

Keywords: stochastic processes, empirical distributions, Monte Carlo simulation, PSO, supply chain management

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Authors: Wondwosen Teshome B.

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Since 1991 Ethiopia has officially adopted multi-party democracy. At present, there are 89 registered political parties in the country. Though political parties play an important role in the functioning of a democratic government, how to fund them is an issue of major concern. Political parties and individual candidates running for political office have to raise funds for election campaigns, and to survive as political candidates. The aim of this paper is to examine party funding problems in Africa by taking the case of Ethiopia as an example. The paper also evaluates the motives of local and international donors in giving financial and material support to political parties in emerging democracies and assesses the merits and de-merits of their donations.

Keywords: Africa, State funding, Ethiopia, Political finance, Political party, Western donors.

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Authors: Ingrid Göpfert, Michael Stephan, Wanja Wellbrock, Malte Ackermann

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Empirical insights into the implementation of logistics competencies at the top management level are scarce. This paper addresses this issue with an explorative approach which is based on a dataset of 872 observations in the years 2000, 2004 and 2008 using quantitative content analysis from annual reports of the 500 publicly listed firms with the highest global research and development expenditures according to the British Department for Business Innovation and Skills. We find that logistics competencies are more pronounced in Asian companies than in their European or American counterparts. On an industrial level the results are quite mixed. Using partial point-biserial correlations we show that logistics competencies are positively related to financial performance.

Keywords: Logistics, supply chain management, content analysis, executive boards, multinational corporations.

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Authors: Ana Paula Monte, Christiane Fontenete

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As current business environment is demanding a constant adaptation of companies, the planning and strategic management should be an ongoing and natural process in all kind of organizations. The use of management and monitoring strategic performance tools such as the Balanced Scorecard (BSC) have been popular; even to Small and Medium-sized Enterprises. This paper aims to investigate whether the BSC is being used in monitoring the performance of small businesses, particularly in small fuel retailers companies, which are competing in co-branding; and if not, it aims to identify its strategic orientation in order to recommend a possible strategy map for those managers that are willing to adopt this model as an alternative to traditional ones for organizational performance evaluation, which often focus only on evaluation of the organizational financial performance.

Keywords: Balanced Scorecard, Performance Management and Evaluation, SMEs, Strategy Maps

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Authors: H. Al-Khalaifa, A. Al-Nasser

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The viewpoint towards the use of drugs or vaccines against avian parasitic diseases is one of the most striking challenges in avian medical parasitology. This includes many difficulties associated with drug resistance and in developing prophylactic vaccines. In many instances, the potential success of a vaccination in controlling parasitic diseases in poultry is well-documented. However, some medical, technical and financial limitations are still paramount. On the other hand, chemotherapy is not very well-recommended due to a number of medical limitations. But in the absence of an effective vaccine, drugs are used against parasitic diseases. This paper sheds light on some the advantages and disadvantages of using vaccination and drugs in controlling parasitic diseases in poultry species. The usage of chemotherapeutic drugs is discussed with some examples. Then, more light will be shed on using vaccines as a potentially effective and promising control tool.

Keywords: Drugs, parasitology, poultry, vaccines.

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Authors: Ali Safdari-Vaighani

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Pricing financial contracts on several underlying assets received more and more interest as a demand for complex derivatives. The option pricing under asset price involving jump diffusion processes leads to the partial integral differential equation (PIDEs), which is an extension of the Black-Scholes PDE with a new integral term. The aim of this paper is to show how basket option prices in the jump diffusion models, mainly on the Merton model, can be computed using RBF based approximation methods. For a test problem, the RBF-PU method is applied for numerical solution of partial integral differential equation arising from the two-asset European vanilla put options. The numerical result shows the accuracy and efficiency of the presented method.

Keywords: Radial basis function, basket option, jump diffusion, RBF-PUM.

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Authors: Theodosios Tsiakis, George Stephanides, George Pekos

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The growth of open networks created the interest to commercialise it. The establishment of an electronic business mechanism must be accompanied by a digital – electronic payment system to transfer the value of transactions. Financial organizations are requested to offer a secure e-payment synthesis with equivalent level of security served in conventional paper-based payment transactions. PKI, which is functioning as a chain of trust in security architecture, can enable security services of cryptography to epayments, in order to take advantage of the wider base either of customer or of trading partners and the reduction of cost transaction achieved by the use of Internet channels. The paper addresses the possibilities and the implementation suggestions of PKI in relevance to electronic payments by suggesting a framework that should be followed.

Keywords: Electronic Payment, Security, Trust

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Authors: E. Rak

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The aim of the paper is to identify some of the specific characteristics of employee development, as observed in the practice of small enterprises in Poland. Results suggest that a sizeable percentage of employers are not interested in improving the development of their employee base. This aspect is often perceived as insignificant. In addition, many employers have no theoretical or practical knowledge of employee development methods. Lack of sufficient financial support is reported as third on the list of the most important barriers to employee development. Employees, on the other hand, typically offload the responsibility of initiating this type of activities onto the employer. Employee development plans are typically flexible and accommodating. The original value offered by this research comes in the form of a detailed characteristics of employee development in small enterprises, accompanied by identification of specificity of human resource development in Polish companies.

Keywords: Employee development specificity, human resources development, small businesses, trainings.

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Authors: Ahmad Munawar

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The provision of urban public transport in Indonesia is not free of problems. Some of the problems include: an overall lack of capacity, lack of quality and choice, severe traffic congestions and insufficient fund to renew and repair vehicles. Generally, the comfort and quality of the city bus is poor, and many of the vehicles are dilapidated and dirty. Surveys were carried out in the city of Yogyakarta, by counting city bus vehicles and occupancies, interviewing the bus passengers, drivers and institutional staffs, who involve in public transport management. This paper will then analyze the possible plan to develop the public transport system to become more attractive and to improve the public transport management. The short, medium and long term plans are analyzed, to find the best solutions. Some constraints such as social impacts and financial impact are also taken into accounts.

Keywords: City bus, management, public transport.

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Authors: Lucian Munteanu

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The move towards internationalization of accounting encountered a great boost, when in 2002 EU delegated the IASB to provide the accounting standards to be applied inside its frontiers. Among the incentives of the standardization of accounting on the international level, is the reduction of the cost of capital. Romania made the move towards IFRS before EU, when the country was not yet a member of it. Even if this made Romania a special case, it was scarcely approached. The leak of real data is usually the reason for avoiding. The novelty of this paper is that it offers an insight from the reality of Romanian companies and their view regarding the IFRS. The paper is based on a survey that the authors made among the companies listed on the first two tiers of the Bucharest Stock Exchange (BSE), which are basically, the most important companies in the country.

Keywords: Cost of capital, IFRS, information asymmetry, transparency.

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Authors: George Cristian Gruia, Michal Kavan

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The article describes a case study on one of Czech Republic-s manufacturing middle size enterprises (ME), where due to the European financial crisis, production lines had to be redesigned and optimized in order to minimize the total costs of the production of goods. It is considered an optimization problem of minimizing the total cost of the work load, according to the costs of the possible locations of the workplaces, with an application of the Greedy algorithm and a partial analogy to a Set Packing Problem. The displacement of working tables in a company should be as a one-toone monotone increasing function in order for the total costs of production of the goods to be at minimum. We use a heuristic approach with greedy algorithm for solving this linear optimization problem, regardless the possible greediness which may appear and we apply it in a Czech ME.

Keywords: Czech, greedy algorithm, minimize, total costs.

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Authors: C. Rogerson, E. Scott

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The purpose of this paper is to consider the introduction of online courses to replace the current classroom-based staff training. The current training is practical, and must be completed before access to the financial computer system is authorized. The long term objective is to measure the efficacy, effectiveness and efficiency of the training, and to establish whether a transfer of knowledge back to the workplace has occurred. This paper begins with an overview explaining the importance of staff training in an evolving, competitive business environment and defines the problem facing this particular organization. A summary of the literature review is followed by a brief discussion of the research methodology and objective. The implementation of the alpha version of the online course is then described. This paper may be of interest to those seeking insights into, or new theory regarding, practical interventions of online learning in the real world.

Keywords: Computer-based courses, e-learning, online training, workplace training.

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Authors: Afonso, S. C., Fernandes, P. O., Monte, A. P.

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Modern times call organizations to have an active role in the social arena, through Corporate Social Responsibility (CSR). The objective of this research was to test the hypothesis that there is a positive relation between social performance and economic performance, and if there is a positive correlation between social performance and financial-economic performance. To test these theories a measure of social performance, based on the Green Book of Commission of the European Community, was used in a group of nineteen Portuguese top companies, listed on the PSI 20 index, through a period of five years, since 2005 to 2009. A clusters analysis was applied to group companies by their social performance and to compare and correlate their economic performance. Results indicate that companies that had a better social performance are not the ones who had a better economic performance, and suggest that the middle path might provide a good relation CSR-Economic performance, as a basis to a sustainable development.

Keywords: Corporate Social Responsibility, Economic Performance, Win-Win relationship

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Authors: R. Nootjarat, W. Chantatub, P. Chongstitvatana

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This research attempts to explore gaps in Information Systems (IS) and innovation literatures by developing a model of Information Technology (IT) capability in enabling innovation. The research was conducted by using semi-structured interview with six innovators in business consulting, financial, healthcare and academic organizations. The interview results suggest four elements of ITenabled innovation capability which are information (ability to capture ideas and knowledge), connectivity (ability to bridge geographical boundary and mobilize human resources), communication (ability to attain and engage relationships between human resources) and transformation (ability to change the functions and process integrations) in defining IT-enabled innovation platform. The results also suggests innovators- roles and IT capability.

Keywords: Innovation Platform, IT Capability, Innovators, Innovation Delivery

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Authors: Bassam Baroma

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The main objective of this study is to test the relationship between numbers of variables representing the firm characteristics (market-related variables) and the extent of voluntary disclosure levels (forward-looking disclosure) in the annual reports of Egyptian firms listed on the Egyptian Stock Exchange. The results show that audit firm size is significantly positively correlated (in all the three years) with the level of forward-looking disclosure. However, industry type variable (which divided to: industries, cement, construction, petrochemicals and services), is found being insignificantly association with the level of forward-looking information disclosed in the annual reports for all the three years.

Keywords: Forward-looking disclosure, market-related variables, annual reports, Egyptian Stock Exchange.

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Authors: Antoni Wibowo, Harry Pujianto, Dewi Retno Sari Saputro

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The stock market can provide huge profits in a relatively short time in financial sector; however, it also has a high risk for investors and traders if they are not careful to look the factors that affect the stock market. Therefore, they should give attention to the dynamic fluctuations and movements of the stock market to optimize profits from their investment. In this paper, we present a nonlinear autoregressive exogenous model (NARX) to predict the movements of stock market; especially, the movements of the closing price index. As case study, we consider to predict the movement of the closing price in Indonesia composite index (IHSG) and choose the best structures of NARX for IHSG’s prediction.

Keywords: NARX, prediction, stock market, time series.

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