Search results for: Hybrid Fuzzy Controller
Commenced in January 2007
Frequency: Monthly
Edition: International
Paper Count: 2245

Search results for: Hybrid Fuzzy Controller

1915 Optimal Feedback Linearization Control of PEM Fuel Cell

Authors: E. Shahsavari, R. Ghasemi, A. Akramizadeh

Abstract:

This paper presents a new method to design nonlinear feedback linearization controller for PEMFCs (Polymer Electrolyte Membrane Fuel Cells). A nonlinear controller is designed based on nonlinear model to prolong the stack life of PEMFCs. Since it is known that large deviations between hydrogen and oxygen partial pressures can cause severe membrane damage in the fuel cell, feedback linearization is applied to the PEMFC system so that the deviation can be kept as small as possible during disturbances or load variations. To obtain an accurate feedback linearization controller, tuning the linear parameters are always important. So in proposed study NSGA (Non-Dominated Sorting Genetic Algorithm)-II method was used to tune the designed controller in aim to decrease the controller tracking error. The simulation result showed that the proposed method tuned the controller efficiently.

Keywords: Feedback Linearization controller, NSGA, Optimal Control, PEMFC.

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1914 Novel and Different Definitions for Fuzzy Union and Intersection Operations

Authors: Aarthi Chandramohan, M. V. C. Rao

Abstract:

This paper presents three new methodologies for the basic operations, which aim at finding new ways of computing union (maximum) and intersection (minimum) membership values by taking into effect the entire membership values in a fuzzy set. The new methodologies are conceptually simple and easy from the application point of view and are illustrated with a variety of problems such as Cartesian product of two fuzzy sets, max –min composition of two fuzzy sets in different product spaces and an application of an inverted pendulum to determine the impact of the new methodologies. The results clearly indicate a difference based on the nature of the fuzzy sets under consideration and hence will be highly useful in quite a few applications where different values have significant impact on the behavior of the system.

Keywords: Centroid, fuzzy set operations, intersection, triangular norms , triangular S-norms, union.

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1913 Cooperative Multi Agent Soccer Robot Team

Authors: Vahid Rostami, Saeed Ebrahimijam, P.khajehpoor, P.Mirzaei, Mahdi Yousefiazar

Abstract:

This paper introduces our first efforts of developing a new team for RoboCup Middle Size Competition. In our robots we have applied omni directional based mobile system with omnidirectional vision system and fuzzy control algorithm to navigate robots. The control architecture of MRL middle-size robots is a three layered architecture, Planning, Sequencing, and Executing. It also uses Blackboard system to achieve coordination among agents. Moreover, the architecture should have minimum dependency on low level structure and have a uniform protocol to interact with real robot.

Keywords: Robocup, Soccer robots, Fuzzy controller, Multi agent.

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1912 Sliding Mode Control with Fuzzy Boundary Layer to Air-Air Interception Problem

Authors: Mustafa Resa Becan

Abstract:

The performance of a type of fuzzy sliding mode control is researched by considering the nonlinear characteristic of a missile-target interception problem to obtain a robust interception process. The variable boundary layer by using fuzzy logic is proposed to reduce the chattering around the switching surface then is applied to the interception model which was derived. The performances of the sliding mode control with constant and fuzzy boundary layer are compared at the end of the study and the results are evaluated.

Keywords: Sliding mode control, fuzzy, boundary layer, interception problem.

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1911 An MADM Framework toward Hierarchical Production Planning in Hybrid MTS/MTO Environments

Authors: H. Rafiei, M. Rabbani

Abstract:

This paper proposes a new decision making structure to determine the appropriate product delivery strategy for different products in a manufacturing system among make-to-stock, make-toorder, and hybrid strategy. Given product delivery strategies for all products in the manufacturing system, the position of the Order Penetrating Point (OPP) can be located regarding the delivery strategies among which location of OPP in hybrid strategy is a cumbersome task. In this regard, we employ analytic network process, because there are varieties of interrelated driving factors involved in choosing the right location. Moreover, the proposed structure is augmented with fuzzy sets theory in order to cope with the uncertainty of judgments. Finally, applicability of the proposed structure is proven in practice through a real industrial case company. The numerical results demonstrate the efficiency of the proposed decision making structure in order partitioning and OPP location.

Keywords: Hybrid make-to-stock/make-to-order, Multi-attribute decision making, Order partitioning, Order penetration point.

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1910 Active Islanding Detection Method Using Intelligent Controller

Authors: Kuang-Hsiung Tan, Chih-Chan Hu, Chien-Wu Lan, Shih-Sung Lin, Te-Jen Chang

Abstract:

An active islanding detection method using disturbance signal injection with intelligent controller is proposed in this study. First, a DC\AC power inverter is emulated in the distributed generator (DG) system to implement the tracking control of active power, reactive power outputs and the islanding detection. The proposed active islanding detection method is based on injecting a disturbance signal into the power inverter system through the d-axis current which leads to a frequency deviation at the terminal of the RLC load when the utility power is disconnected. Moreover, in order to improve the transient and steady-state responses of the active power and reactive power outputs of the power inverter, and to further improve the performance of the islanding detection method, two probabilistic fuzzy neural networks (PFNN) are adopted to replace the traditional proportional-integral (PI) controllers for the tracking control and the islanding detection. Furthermore, the network structure and the online learning algorithm of the PFNN are introduced in detail. Finally, the feasibility and effectiveness of the tracking control and the proposed active islanding detection method are verified with experimental results.

Keywords: Distributed generators, probabilistic fuzzy neural network, islanding detection, non-detection zone.

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1909 Strict Stability of Fuzzy Differential Equations by Lyapunov Functions

Authors: Mustafa Bayram Gücen, Coşkun Yakar

Abstract:

In this study, we have investigated the strict stability of fuzzy differential systems and we compare the classical notion of strict stability criteria of ordinary differential equations and the notion of strict stability of fuzzy differential systems. In addition that, we present definitions of stability and strict stability of fuzzy differential equations and also we have some theorems and comparison results. Strict Stability is a different stability definition and this stability type can give us an information about the rate of decay of the solutions. Lyapunov’s second method is a standard technique used in the study of the qualitative behavior of fuzzy differential systems along with a comparison result that allows the prediction of behavior of a fuzzy differential system when the behavior of the null solution of a fuzzy comparison system is known. This method is a usefull for investigating strict stability of fuzzy systems. First of all, we present definitions and necessary background material. Secondly, we discuss and compare the differences between the classical notion of stability and the recent notion of strict stability. And then, we have a comparison result in which the stability properties of the null solution of the comparison system imply the corresponding stability properties of the fuzzy differential system. Consequently, we give the strict stability results and a comparison theorem. We have used Lyapunov second method and we have proved a comparison result with scalar differential equations.

Keywords: Fuzzy systems, fuzzy differential equations, fuzzy stability, strict stability.

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1908 Application of 0-1 Fuzzy Programming in Optimum Project Selection

Authors: S. Sadi-Nezhad, K. Khalili Damghani, N. Pilevari

Abstract:

In this article, a mathematical programming model for choosing an optimum portfolio of investments is developed. The investments are considered as investment projects. The uncertainties of the real world are associated through fuzzy concepts for coefficients of the proposed model (i. e. initial investment costs, profits, resource requirement, and total available budget). Model has been coded by using LINGO 11.0 solver. The results of a full analysis of optimistic and pessimistic derivative models are promising for selecting an optimum portfolio of projects in presence of uncertainty.

Keywords: Fuzzy Programming, Fuzzy Knapsack, FuzzyCapital Budgeting, Fuzzy Project Selection

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1907 A New Hybrid Optimization Method for Optimum Distribution Capacitor Planning

Authors: A. R. Seifi

Abstract:

This work presents a new algorithm based on a combination of fuzzy (FUZ), Dynamic Programming (DP), and Genetic Algorithm (GA) approach for capacitor allocation in distribution feeders. The problem formulation considers two distinct objectives related to total cost of power loss and total cost of capacitors including the purchase and installation costs. The novel formulation is a multi-objective and non-differentiable optimization problem. The proposed method of this article uses fuzzy reasoning for sitting of capacitors in radial distribution feeders, DP for sizing and finally GA for finding the optimum shape of membership functions which are used in fuzzy reasoning stage. The proposed method has been implemented in a software package and its effectiveness has been verified through a 9-bus radial distribution feeder for the sake of conclusions supports. A comparison has been done among the proposed method of this paper and similar methods in other research works that shows the effectiveness of the proposed method of this paper for solving optimum capacitor planning problem.

Keywords: Capacitor planning, Fuzzy logic method, Genetic Algorithm, Dynamic programming, Radial Distribution feeder

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1906 Change Detector Combination in Remotely Sensed Images Using Fuzzy Integral

Authors: H. Nemmour, Y. Chibani

Abstract:

Decision fusion is one of hot research topics in classification area, which aims to achieve the best possible performance for the task at hand. In this paper, we investigate the usefulness of this concept to improve change detection accuracy in remote sensing. Thereby, outputs of two fuzzy change detectors based respectively on simultaneous and comparative analysis of multitemporal data are fused by using fuzzy integral operators. This method fuses the objective evidences produced by the change detectors with respect to fuzzy measures that express the difference of performance between them. The proposed fusion framework is evaluated in comparison with some ordinary fuzzy aggregation operators. Experiments carried out on two SPOT images showed that the fuzzy integral was the best performing. It improves the change detection accuracy while attempting to equalize the accuracy rate in both change and no change classes.

Keywords: change detection, decision fusion, fuzzy logic, remote sensing.

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1905 Fractional Order Feedback Control of a Ball and Beam System

Authors: Santosh Kr. Choudhary

Abstract:

In this paper, fractional order feedback control of a ball beam model is investigated. The ball beam model is a particular example of the double Integrator system having strongly nonlinear characteristics and unstable dynamics which make the control of such system a challenging task. Most of the work in fractional order control systems are in theoretical nature and controller design and its implementation in practice is very small. In this work, a successful attempt has been made to design a fractional order PIλDμcontroller for a benchmark laboratory ball and beam model. Better performance can be achieved using a fractional order PID controller and it is demonstrated through simulations results with a comparison to the classic PID controller.

Keywords: Fractional order calculus, fractional order controller, fractional order system, ball and beam system, PIλDμ controller, modelling, simulation.

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1904 A Novel Fuzzy Technique for Image Noise Reduction

Authors: Hamed Vahdat Nejad, Hameed Reza Pourreza, Hasan Ebrahimi

Abstract:

A new fuzzy filter is presented for noise reduction of images corrupted with additive noise. The filter consists of two stages. In the first stage, all the pixels of image are processed for determining noisy pixels. For this, a fuzzy rule based system associates a degree to each pixel. The degree of a pixel is a real number in the range [0,1], which denotes a probability that the pixel is not considered as a noisy pixel. In the second stage, another fuzzy rule based system is employed. It uses the output of the previous fuzzy system to perform fuzzy smoothing by weighting the contributions of neighboring pixel values. Experimental results are obtained to show the feasibility of the proposed filter. These results are also compared to other filters by numerical measure and visual inspection.

Keywords: Additive noise, Fuzzy logic, Image processing, Noise reduction.

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1903 Discovery of Production Rules with Fuzzy Hierarchy

Authors: Fadl M. Ba-Alwi, Kamal K. Bharadwaj

Abstract:

In this paper a novel algorithm is proposed that integrates the process of fuzzy hierarchy generation and rule discovery for automated discovery of Production Rules with Fuzzy Hierarchy (PRFH) in large databases.A concept of frequency matrix (Freq) introduced to summarize large database that helps in minimizing the number of database accesses, identification and removal of irrelevant attribute values and weak classes during the fuzzy hierarchy generation.Experimental results have established the effectiveness of the proposed algorithm.

Keywords: Data Mining, Degree of subsumption, Freq matrix, Fuzzy hierarchy.

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1902 Some Properties of Superfuzzy Subset of a Fuzzy Subset

Authors: Hassan Naraghi

Abstract:

In this paper, we define permutable and mutually permutable fuzzy subgroups of a group. Then we study their relation with permutable and mutually permutable subgroups of a group. Also we study some properties of fuzzy quasinormal subgroup. We define superfuzzy subset of a fuzzy subset and we study some properties of superfuzzy subset of a fuzzy subset.

Keywords: Permutable fuzzy subgroup, mutually permutable fuzzy subgroup, fuzzy quasinormal subgroup, superfuzzy subset.

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1901 From Type-I to Type-II Fuzzy System Modeling for Diagnosis of Hepatitis

Authors: Shahabeddin Sotudian, M. H. Fazel Zarandi, I. B. Turksen

Abstract:

Hepatitis is one of the most common and dangerous diseases that affects humankind, and exposes millions of people to serious health risks every year. Diagnosis of Hepatitis has always been a challenge for physicians. This paper presents an effective method for diagnosis of hepatitis based on interval Type-II fuzzy. This proposed system includes three steps: pre-processing (feature selection), Type-I and Type-II fuzzy classification, and system evaluation. KNN-FD feature selection is used as the preprocessing step in order to exclude irrelevant features and to improve classification performance and efficiency in generating the classification model. In the fuzzy classification step, an “indirect approach” is used for fuzzy system modeling by implementing the exponential compactness and separation index for determining the number of rules in the fuzzy clustering approach. Therefore, we first proposed a Type-I fuzzy system that had an accuracy of approximately 90.9%. In the proposed system, the process of diagnosis faces vagueness and uncertainty in the final decision. Thus, the imprecise knowledge was managed by using interval Type-II fuzzy logic. The results that were obtained show that interval Type-II fuzzy has the ability to diagnose hepatitis with an average accuracy of 93.94%. The classification accuracy obtained is the highest one reached thus far. The aforementioned rate of accuracy demonstrates that the Type-II fuzzy system has a better performance in comparison to Type-I and indicates a higher capability of Type-II fuzzy system for modeling uncertainty.

Keywords: Hepatitis disease, medical diagnosis, type-I fuzzy logic, type-II fuzzy logic, feature selection.

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1900 A New Approach of Fuzzy Methods for Evaluating of Hydrological Data

Authors: Nasser Shamskia, Seyyed Habib Rahmati, Hassan Haleh , Seyyedeh Hoda Rahmati

Abstract:

The main criteria of designing in the most hydraulic constructions essentially are based on runoff or discharge of water. Two of those important criteria are runoff and return period. Mostly, these measures are calculated or estimated by stochastic data. Another feature in hydrological data is their impreciseness. Therefore, in order to deal with uncertainty and impreciseness, based on Buckley-s estimation method, a new fuzzy method of evaluating hydrological measures are developed. The method introduces triangular shape fuzzy numbers for different measures in which both of the uncertainty and impreciseness concepts are considered. Besides, since another important consideration in most of the hydrological studies is comparison of a measure during different months or years, a new fuzzy method which is consistent with special form of proposed fuzzy numbers, is also developed. Finally, to illustrate the methods more explicitly, the two algorithms are tested on one simple example and a real case study.

Keywords: Fuzzy Discharge, Fuzzy estimation, Fuzzy ranking method, Hydrological data

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1899 Fuzzy Clustering of Categorical Attributes and its Use in Analyzing Cultural Data

Authors: George E. Tsekouras, Dimitris Papageorgiou, Sotiris Kotsiantis, Christos Kalloniatis, Panagiotis Pintelas

Abstract:

We develop a three-step fuzzy logic-based algorithm for clustering categorical attributes, and we apply it to analyze cultural data. In the first step the algorithm employs an entropy-based clustering scheme, which initializes the cluster centers. In the second step we apply the fuzzy c-modes algorithm to obtain a fuzzy partition of the data set, and the third step introduces a novel cluster validity index, which decides the final number of clusters.

Keywords: Categorical data, cultural data, fuzzy logic clustering, fuzzy c-modes, cluster validity index.

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1898 Fuzzy Metric Approach for Fuzzy Time Series Forecasting based on Frequency Density Based Partitioning

Authors: Tahseen Ahmed Jilani, Syed Muhammad Aqil Burney, C. Ardil

Abstract:

In the last 15 years, a number of methods have been proposed for forecasting based on fuzzy time series. Most of the fuzzy time series methods are presented for forecasting of enrollments at the University of Alabama. However, the forecasting accuracy rates of the existing methods are not good enough. In this paper, we compared our proposed new method of fuzzy time series forecasting with existing methods. Our method is based on frequency density based partitioning of the historical enrollment data. The proposed method belongs to the kth order and time-variant methods. The proposed method can get the best forecasting accuracy rate for forecasting enrollments than the existing methods.

Keywords: Fuzzy logical groups, fuzzified enrollments, fuzzysets, fuzzy time series.

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1897 Meteorological Risk Assessment for Ships with Fuzzy Logic Designer

Authors: Ismail Karaca, Ridvan Saracoglu, Omer Soner

Abstract:

Fuzzy Logic, an advanced method to support decision-making, is used by various scientists in many disciplines. Fuzzy programming is a product of fuzzy logic, fuzzy rules, and implication. In marine science, fuzzy programming for ships is dramatically increasing together with autonomous ship studies. In this paper, a program to support the decision-making process for ship navigation has been designed. The program is produced in fuzzy logic and rules, by taking the marine accidents and expert opinions into account. After the program was designed, the program was tested by 46 ship accidents reported by the Transportation Safety Investigation Center of Turkey. Wind speed, sea condition, visibility, day/night ratio have been used as input data. They have been converted into a risk factor within the Fuzzy Logic Designer application and fuzzy rules set by marine experts. Finally, the expert's meteorological risk factor for each accident is compared with the program's risk factor, and the error rate was calculated. The main objective of this study is to improve the navigational safety of ships, by using the advance decision support model. According to the study result, fuzzy programming is a robust model that supports safe navigation.

Keywords: Calculation of risk factor, fuzzy logic, fuzzy programming for ship, safe navigation of ships.

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1896 Deduction of Fuzzy Autocatalytic Set to Omega Algebra and Transformation Semigroup

Authors: Liew Siaw Yee, Tahir Ahmad

Abstract:

In this paper, the Fuzzy Autocatalytic Set (FACS) is composed into Omega Algebra by embedding the membership value of fuzzy edge connectivity using the property of transitive affinity. Then, the Omega Algebra of FACS is a transformation semigroup which is a special class of semigroup is shown.

Keywords: Fuzzy autocatalytic set, omega algebra, semigroup, transformation semigroup.

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1895 Fuzzy Voting in Internal Elections of Educational and Party Organizations

Authors: R. Hosseingholizadeh

Abstract:

This article presents a method for elections between the members of a group that is founded by fuzzy logic. Linguistic variables are objects for decision on election cards and deduction is based on t-norms and s-norms. In this election-s method election cards are questionnaire. The questionnaires are comprised of some questions with some choices. The choices are words from natural language. Presented method is accompanied by center of gravity (COG) defuzzification added up to a computer program by MATLAB. Finally the method is illustrated by solving two examples; choose a head for a research group-s members and a representative for students.

Keywords: fuzzy election, fuzzy electoral card, fuzzy inference, questionnaire.

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1894 Optimal Control for Coordinated Control of SVeC and PSS Damping Controllers

Authors: K. Himaja, T. S. Surendra, S. Tara Kalyani

Abstract:

In this article, Optimal Control for Coordinated Control (COC) of Series Vectorial Compensator (SVeC) and Power System Stabilizer (PSS) in order to damp Low Frequency Oscillations (LFO) is proposed. SVeC is a series Flexible Alternating Current Transmission System (FACTS) device. The Optimal Control strategy based on state feedback control for coordination of PSS and SVeC controllers under different loading conditions has not been developed. So, the Optimal State Feedback Controller (OSFC) for incorporating of PSS and SVeC controllers in COC manner has been developed in this paper. The performance of the proposed controller is checked through eigenvalue analysis and nonlinear time domain simulation results. The proposed Optimal Controller design for the COC of SVeC and PSS results will be analyzed without controller. The comparative results show that Optimal Controller for COC of SVeC and PSSs improve greatly the system damping LFO than without controller.

Keywords: Coordinated control, damping controller, optimal state feedback controller, power system stabilizer, series vectorial compensator.

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1893 PSS and SVC Controller Design by Chaos and PSO Algorithms to Enhancing the Power System Stability

Authors: Saeed jalilzadeh, Mohammad Reza Safari Tirtashi, Mohsen Sadeghi

Abstract:

this paper focuses on designing of PSS and SVC controller based on chaos and PSO algorithms to improve the stability of power system. Single machine infinite bus (SMIB) system with SVC located at the terminal of generator has been considered to evaluate the proposed controllers where both SVC and PSS have the same controller. The coefficients of PSS and SVC controller have been optimized by chaos and PSO algorithms. Finally the system with proposed controllers has been simulated for the special disturbance in input power of generator, and then the dynamic responses of generator have been presented. The simulation results showed that the system composed with recommended controller has outstanding operation in fast damping of oscillations of power system.

Keywords: PSS, CHAOS, PSO, Stability

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1892 A New Nonlinear PID Controller and its Parameter Design

Authors: Yongping Ren, Zongli Li, Fan Zhang

Abstract:

A new nonlinear PID controller and its stability analysis are presented in this paper. A nonlinear function is deduced from the similarities between the control effort and the electric-field effect of a capacitor. The conventional linear PID controller can be modified into a nonlinear one by this function. To analyze the stability of the nonlinear PID controlled system, an idea of energy equivalence is adapted to avoid the conservativeness which is usually arisen from some traditional theorems and Criterions. The energy equivalence is naturally related with the conceptions of Passivity and T-Passivity. As a result, an engineering guideline for the parameter design of the nonlinear PID controller is obtained. An inverted pendulum system is tested to verify the nonlinear PID control scheme.

Keywords: Nonlinear PID controller, stability, gain equivalence, dissipative, T-Passivity.

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1891 Evaluation of Evolution Strategy, Genetic Algorithm and their Hybrid on Evolving Simulated Car Racing Controllers

Authors: Hidehiko Okada, Jumpei Tokida

Abstract:

Researchers have been applying tional intelligence (AI/CI) methods to computer games. In this research field, further researchesare required to compare AI/CI methods with respect to each game application. In th our experimental result on the comparison of three evolutionary algorithms – evolution strategy, genetic algorithm, and their hybrid applied to evolving controller agents for the CIG 2007 Simulated Car Racing competition. Our experimental result shows that, premature convergence of solutions was observed in the case of ES, and GA outperformed ES in the last half of generations. Besides, a hybrid which uses GA first and ES next evolved the best solution among the whole solutions being generated. This result shows the ability of GA in globally searching promising areas in the early stage and the ability of ES in locally searching the focused area (fine-tuning solutions).

Keywords: Evolutionary algorithm, autonomous agent, neuroevolutions, simulated car racing.

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1890 Hybrid Modeling Algorithm for Continuous Tamil Speech Recognition

Authors: M. Kalamani, S. Valarmathy, M. Krishnamoorthi

Abstract:

In this paper, Fuzzy C-Means clustering with Expectation Maximization-Gaussian Mixture Model based hybrid modeling algorithm is proposed for Continuous Tamil Speech Recognition. The speech sentences from various speakers are used for training and testing phase and objective measures are between the proposed and existing Continuous Speech Recognition algorithms. From the simulated results, it is observed that the proposed algorithm improves the recognition accuracy and F-measure up to 3% as compared to that of the existing algorithms for the speech signal from various speakers. In addition, it reduces the Word Error Rate, Error Rate and Error up to 4% as compared to that of the existing algorithms. In all aspects, the proposed hybrid modeling for Tamil speech recognition provides the significant improvements for speechto- text conversion in various applications.

Keywords: Speech Segmentation, Feature Extraction, Clustering, HMM, EM-GMM, CSR.

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1889 A New Quantile Based Fuzzy Time Series Forecasting Model

Authors: Tahseen A. Jilani, Aqil S. Burney, C. Ardil

Abstract:

Time series models have been used to make predictions of academic enrollments, weather, road accident, casualties and stock prices, etc. Based on the concepts of quartile regression models, we have developed a simple time variant quantile based fuzzy time series forecasting method. The proposed method bases the forecast using prediction of future trend of the data. In place of actual quantiles of the data at each point, we have converted the statistical concept into fuzzy concept by using fuzzy quantiles using fuzzy membership function ensemble. We have given a fuzzy metric to use the trend forecast and calculate the future value. The proposed model is applied for TAIFEX forecasting. It is shown that proposed method work best as compared to other models when compared with respect to model complexity and forecasting accuracy.

Keywords: Quantile Regression, Fuzzy time series, fuzzy logicalrelationship groups, heuristic trend prediction.

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1888 Support Vector Fuzzy Based Neural Networks For Exchange Rate Modeling

Authors: Prof. Chokri SLIM

Abstract:

A Novel fuzzy neural network combining with support vector learning mechanism called support-vector-based fuzzy neural networks (SVBFNN) is proposed. The SVBFNN combine the capability of minimizing the empirical risk (training error) and expected risk (testing error) of support vector learning in high dimensional data spaces and the efficient human-like reasoning of FNN.

Keywords: Neural network, fuzzy inference, machine learning, fuzzy modeling and rule extraction, support vector regression.

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1887 Multivariate High Order Fuzzy Time Series Forecasting for Car Road Accidents

Authors: Tahseen A. Jilani, S. M. Aqil Burney, C. Ardil

Abstract:

In this paper, we have presented a new multivariate fuzzy time series forecasting method. This method assumes mfactors with one main factor of interest. History of past three years is used for making new forecasts. This new method is applied in forecasting total number of car accidents in Belgium using four secondary factors. We also make comparison of our proposed method with existing methods of fuzzy time series forecasting. Experimentally, it is shown that our proposed method perform better than existing fuzzy time series forecasting methods. Practically, actuaries are interested in analysis of the patterns of causalities in road accidents. Thus using fuzzy time series, actuaries can define fuzzy premium and fuzzy underwriting of car insurance and life insurance for car insurance. National Institute of Statistics, Belgium provides region of risk classification for each road. Thus using this risk classification, we can predict premium rate and underwriting of insurance policy holders.

Keywords: Average forecasting error rate (AFER), Fuzziness offuzzy sets Fuzzy, If-Then rules, Multivariate fuzzy time series.

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1886 Project Selection by Using Fuzzy AHP and TOPSIS Technique

Authors: S. Mahmoodzadeh, J. Shahrabi, M. Pariazar, M. S. Zaeri

Abstract:

In this article, by using fuzzy AHP and TOPSIS technique we propose a new method for project selection problem. After reviewing four common methods of comparing alternatives investment (net present value, rate of return, benefit cost analysis and payback period) we use them as criteria in AHP tree. In this methodology by utilizing improved Analytical Hierarchy Process by Fuzzy set theory, first we try to calculate weight of each criterion. Then by implementing TOPSIS algorithm, assessment of projects has been done. Obtained results have been tested in a numerical example.

Keywords: Fuzzy AHP, Project Selection, TOPSIS Technique.

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