Search results for: load modeling

Authors: D. O. Omondi, M. K. Walingo, G. M. Mbagaya

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Objective: This study explored the possibility of integrating Health Belief Concepts as additional predictors of intention to adopt a recommended diet-category within the Theory of Planned Behavior (TPB). Methods: The study adopted a Sequential Exploratory Mixed Methods approach. Qualitative data were generated on attitude, subjective norm, perceived behavioral control and perceptions on predetermined diet-categories including perceived susceptibility, perceived benefits, perceived severity and cues to action. Synthesis of qualitative data was done using constant comparative approach during phase 1. A survey tool developed from qualitative results was used to collect information on the same concepts across 237 legible Type 2 diabetics. Data analysis included use of Structural Equation Modeling in Analysis of Moment Structures to explore the possibility of including perceived susceptibility, perceived benefits, perceived severity and cues to action as additional intention predictors in a single nested model. Results: Two models-one nested based on the traditional TPB model {χ2=223.3, df = 77, p = .02, χ2/df = 2.9; TLI = .93; CFI =.91; RMSEA (90CI) = .090(.039, .146)} and the newly proposed Planned Behavior Health Belief Model (PBHB) {χ2 = 743.47, df = 301, p = .019; TLI = .90; CFI=.91; RMSEA (90CI) = .079(.031, .14)} passed the goodness of fit tests based on common fit indicators used. Conclusion: The newly developed PBHB Model ranked higher than the traditional TPB model with reference made to chi-square ratios (PBHB: χ2/df = 2.47; p=0.19 against TPB: χ2/df = 2.9, p=0.02). The integrated model can be used to motivate Type 2 diabetics towards healthy eating.

Keywords: Theory, intention, predictors, mixed methods design.

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Authors: A. Golshani, M. Gharizade Varnusefaderani, S. Majidian

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Underground structures are of those structures that have uncertainty in design procedures. That is due to the complexity of soil condition around. Under passing tunnels are also such affected structures. Despite geotechnical site investigations, lots of uncertainties exist in soil properties due to unknown events. As results, it possibly causes conflicting settlements in numerical analysis with recorded values in the project. This paper aims to report a case study on a specific under passing tunnel constructed by New Austrian Tunnelling Method in Iran. The intended tunnel has an overburden of about 11.3m, the height of 12.2m and, the width of 14.4m with 2.5 traffic lane. The numerical modeling was developed by a 2D finite element program (PLAXIS Version 8). Comparing displacement histories at the ground surface during the entire installation of initial lining, the estimated surface settlement was about four times the field recorded one, which indicates that some local unknown events affect that value. Also, the displacement ratios were in a big difference between the numerical and field data. Consequently, running several numerical back analyses using laboratory and field tests data, the geotechnical parameters were accurately revised to match with the obtained monitoring data. Finally, it was found that usually the values of soil parameters are conservatively low-estimated up to 40 percent by typical engineering judgment. Additionally, it could be attributed to inappropriate constitutive models applied for the specific soil condition.

Keywords: NATM, surface displacement history, soil tests, monitoring data, numerical back-analysis, geotechnical parameters.

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Authors: Mohamed Ammar Abbassi, Kamel Guedri, Mohamed Naceur Borjini, Kamel Halouani, Belkacem Zeghmati

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The radiative heat transfer problem is investigated numerically for 2D complex geometry biomass pyrolysis reactor composed of two pyrolysis chambers and a heat recuperator. The fumes are a mixture of carbon dioxide and water vapor charged with absorbing and scattering particles and soot. In order to increase gases residence time and heat transfer, the heat recuperator is provided with many inclined, vertical, horizontal, diffuse and grey baffles of finite thickness and has a complex geometry. The Finite Volume Method (FVM) is applied to study radiative heat transfer. The blocked-off region procedure is used to treat the geometrical irregularities. Eight cases are considered in order to demonstrate the effect of adding baffles on the walls of the heat recuperator and on the walls of the pyrolysis rooms then choose the best case giving the maximum heat flux transferred to the biomass in the pyrolysis chambers. Ray effect due to the presence of baffles is studied and demonstrated to have a crucial effect on radiative heat flux on the walls of the pyrolysis rooms. Shadow effect caused by the presence of the baffles is also studied. The non grey radiative heat transfer is studied for the real existent configuration. The Weighted Sum of The Grey Gases (WSGG) Model of Kim and Song is used as non grey model. The effect of soot volumetric fraction on the non grey radiative heat flux is investigated and discussed.

Keywords: Baffles, Blocked-off region procedure, FVM, Heat recuperation, Radiative heat transfer, Shadow effect.

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Authors: A. Megalingam, M.M.Mayuram

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Evaluation of contact pressure, surface and subsurface contact stresses are essential to know the functional response of surface coatings and the contact behavior mainly depends on surface roughness, material property, thickness of layer and the manner of loading. Contact parameter evaluation of real rough surface contacts mostly relies on statistical single asperity contact approaches. In this work, a three dimensional layered solid rough surface in contact with a rigid flat is modeled and analyzed using finite element method. The rough surface of layered solid is generated by FFT approach. The generated rough surface is exported to a finite element method based ANSYS package through which the bottom up solid modeling is employed to create a deformable solid model with a layered solid rough surface on top. The discretization and contact analysis are carried by using the same ANSYS package. The elastic, elastoplastic and plastic deformations are continuous in the present finite element method unlike many other contact models. The Young-s modulus to yield strength ratio of layer is varied in the present work to observe the contact parameters effect while keeping the surface roughness and substrate material properties as constant. The contacting asperities attain elastic, elastoplastic and plastic states with their continuity and asperity interaction phenomena is inherently included. The resultant contact parameters show that neighboring asperity interaction and the Young-s modulus to yield strength ratio of layer influence the bulk deformation consequently affect the interface strength.

Keywords: Asperity interaction, finite element method, rough surface contact, single layered solid

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Authors: M. A. Putera, N. Yasufuku, A. Alowaisy, R. Ishikura, J. G. Hussary, A. Rifa’i

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Indonesia’s government has planned a project for a high-speed railway connecting the capital cities, Jakarta and Surabaya, about 700 km. Based on that location, it has been planning construction above the lowland soil region. The lowland soil region comprises cohesive soil with high water content and high compressibility index, which in fact, led to a settlement problem. Among the variety of railway track structures, the adoption of the ballastless track was used effectively to reduce the settlement; it provided a lightweight structure and minimized workspace. Contradictorily, deploying this thin layer structure above the lowland area was compensated with several problems, such as lack of bearing capacity and deflection behavior during traffic loading. It is necessary to combine with ground improvement to assure a settlement behavior on the clayey soil. Reflecting on the assurance of strength increment and working period, those were convinced by adopting methods such as cement-treated soil as the substructure of railway track. Particularly, evaluating mechanical properties in the field has been well known by using the plate load test and cone penetration test. However, observing an increment of mechanical properties has uncertainty, especially for evaluating cement-treated soil on the substructure. The current quality control of cement-treated soils was established by laboratory tests. Moreover, using small strain devices measurement in the laboratory can predict more reliable results that are identical to field measurement tests. Aims of this research are to show an intercorrelation of confining pressure with the initial condition of the Young’s modulus (E0), Poisson ratio (υ0) and Shear modulus (G0) within small strain ranges. Furthermore, discrepancies between those parameters were also investigated. Experimental result confirmed the intercorrelation between cement content and confining pressure with a power function. In addition, higher cement ratios have discrepancies, conversely with low mixing ratios.

Keywords: Cement content, confining pressure, high-speed railway, small strain ranges.

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Authors: S. Sundaravalli, M. C. Majumder, G. K. Vijayaraghavan

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The study focuses to investigate the thermal response of delaminations and develop mathematical models using numerical results to obtain the optimum heat requirement and time to identify delaminations in GLARE type of Fibre Metal Laminates (FML) in both reflection mode and through-transmission (TT) mode of step pulsed active thermography (SPAT) method in the type of nondestructive testing and evaluation (NDTE) technique. The influence of applied heat flux and time on various sizes and depth of delaminations in FML is analyzed to investigate the thermal response through numerical simulations. A finite element method (FEM) is applied to simulate SPAT through ANSYS software based on 3D transient heat transfer principle with the assumption of reflection mode and TT mode of observation individually.

The results conclude that the numerical approach based on SPAT in reflection mode is more suitable for analysing smaller size of near-surface delaminations located at the thermal stimulator side and TT mode is more suitable for analysing smaller size of deeper delaminations located far from thermal stimulator side or near thermal detector/Infrared camera side. The mathematical models provide the optimum q and T at the required MRTD to identify unidentified delamination 7 with 25015.0022W/m2 at 2.531sec and delamination 8 with 16663.3356 W/m2 at 1.37857sec in reflection mode. In TT mode, the delamination 1 with 34954W/m2 at 13.0399sec, delamination 2 with 20002.67W/m2 at 1.998sec and delamination 7 with 20010.87 W/m2 at 0.6171sec could be identified.

Keywords: Step pulsed active thermography (SPAT), NDTE, FML, Delaminations, Finite element method.

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Authors: U. Waqas, M. F. Ahmed, A. Mehmood, M. A. Rashid

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In geophysical exploration surveys, the quality of acquired data holds significant importance before executing the data processing and interpretation phases. In this study, 2D seismic reflection survey data of Fort Abbas area, Cholistan Desert, Pakistan was taken as test case in order to assess its quality on statistical bases by using normalized root mean square error (NRMSE), Cronbach’s alpha test (α) and null hypothesis tests (t-test and F-test). The analysis challenged the quality of the acquired data and highlighted the significant errors in the acquired database. It is proven that the study area is plain, tectonically least affected and rich in oil and gas reserves. However, subsurface 3D modeling and contouring by using acquired database revealed high degrees of structural complexities and intense folding. The NRMSE had highest percentage of residuals between the estimated and predicted cases. The outcomes of hypothesis testing also proved the biasness and erraticness of the acquired database. Low estimated value of alpha (α) in Cronbach’s alpha test confirmed poor reliability of acquired database. A very low quality of acquired database needs excessive static correction or in some cases, reacquisition of data is also suggested which is most of the time not feasible on economic grounds. The outcomes of this study could be used to assess the quality of large databases and to further utilize as a guideline to establish database quality assessment models to make much more informed decisions in hydrocarbon exploration field.

Keywords: Data quality, null hypothesis, seismic lines, seismic reflection survey.

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Authors: Omar F. Hamad, T. Marwala

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With optimized bandwidth and latency discrepancy ratios, Node Gain Scores (NGSs) are determined and used as a basis for shaping the max-heap overlay. The NGSs - determined as the respective bandwidth-latency-products - govern the construction of max-heap-form overlays. Each NGS is earned as a synergy of discrepancy ratio of the bandwidth requested with respect to the estimated available bandwidth, and latency discrepancy ratio between the nodes and the source node. The tree leads to enhanceddelivery overlay multicasting – increasing packet delivery which could, otherwise, be hindered by induced packet loss occurring in other schemes not considering the synergy of these parameters on placing the nodes on the overlays. The NGS is a function of four main parameters – estimated available bandwidth, Ba; individual node's requested bandwidth, Br; proposed node latency to its prospective parent (Lp); and suggested best latency as advised by source node (Lb). Bandwidth discrepancy ratio (BDR) and latency discrepancy ratio (LDR) carry weights of α and (1,000 - α ) , respectively, with arbitrary chosen α ranging between 0 and 1,000 to ensure that the NGS values, used as node IDs, maintain a good possibility of uniqueness and balance between the most critical factor between the BDR and the LDR. A max-heap-form tree is constructed with assumption that all nodes possess NGS less than the source node. To maintain a sense of load balance, children of each level's siblings are evenly distributed such that a node can not accept a second child, and so on, until all its siblings able to do so, have already acquired the same number of children. That is so logically done from left to right in a conceptual overlay tree. The records of the pair-wise approximate available bandwidths as measured by a pathChirp scheme at individual nodes are maintained. Evaluation measures as compared to other schemes – Bandwidth Aware multicaSt architecturE (BASE), Tree Building Control Protocol (TBCP), and Host Multicast Tree Protocol (HMTP) - have been conducted. This new scheme generally performs better in terms of trade-off between packet delivery ratio; link stress; control overhead; and end-to-end delays.

Keywords: Overlay multicast, Available bandwidth, Max-heapform overlay, Induced packet loss, Bandwidth-latency product, Node Gain Score (NGS).

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Authors: Roy R. Gu, Mahesh Sahu, Xianggui Zhao

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Contour filter strips planted with perennial vegetation can be used to improve surface and ground water quality by reducing pollutant, such as NO3-N, and sediment outflow from cropland to a river or lake. Meanwhile, the filter strips of perennial grass with biofuel potentials also have economic benefits of producing ethanol. In this study, The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model was applied to the Walnut Creek Watershed to examine the effectiveness of contour strips in reducing NO3-N outflows from crop fields to the river or lake. Required input data include watershed topography, slope, soil type, land-use, management practices in the watershed and climate parameters (precipitation, maximum/minimum air temperature, solar radiation, wind speed and relative humidity). Numerical experiments were conducted to identify potential subbasins in the watershed that have high water quality impact, and to examine the effects of strip size and location on NO3-N reduction in the subbasins under various meteorological conditions (dry, average and wet). Variable sizes of contour strips (10%, 20%, 30% and 50%, respectively, of a subbasin area) planted with perennial switchgrass were selected for simulating the effects of strip size and location on stream water quality. Simulation results showed that a filter strip having 10%-50% of the subbasin area could lead to 55%- 90% NO3-N reduction in the subbasin during an average rainfall year. Strips occupying 10-20% of the subbasin area were found to be more efficient in reducing NO3-N when placed along the contour than that when placed along the river. The results of this study can assist in cost-benefit analysis and decision-making in best water resources management practices for environmental protection.

Keywords: modeling, SWAT, water quality, NO3-N, watershed.

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Authors: Vipul M. Patel, Hemantkumar B. Mehta

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Technological innovations in electronic world demand novel, compact, simple in design, less costly and effective heat transfer devices. Closed Loop Pulsating Heat Pipe (CLPHP) is a passive phase change heat transfer device and has potential to transfer heat quickly and efficiently from source to sink. Thermal performance of a CLPHP is governed by various parameters such as number of U-turns, orientations, input heat, working fluids and filling ratio. The present paper is an attempt to predict the thermal performance of a CLPHP using Artificial Neural Network (ANN). Filling ratio and heat input are considered as input parameters while thermal resistance is set as target parameter. Types of neural networks considered in the present paper are radial basis, generalized regression, linear layer, cascade forward back propagation, feed forward back propagation; feed forward distributed time delay, layer recurrent and Elman back propagation. Linear, logistic sigmoid, tangent sigmoid and Radial Basis Gaussian Function are used as transfer functions. Prediction accuracy is measured based on the experimental data reported by the researchers in open literature as a function of Mean Absolute Relative Deviation (MARD). The prediction of a generalized regression ANN model with spread constant of 4.8 is found in agreement with the experimental data for MARD in the range of ±1.81%.

Keywords: ANN models, CLPHP, filling ratio, generalized regression, spread constant.

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Authors: Kiriaki-Maria Fameli, Vasiliki D. Assimakopoulos, Vasiliki Kotroni

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The Greater Athens Area (GAA) faces photochemical and particulate pollution episodes as a result of the combined effects of local pollutant emissions, regional pollution transport, synoptic circulation and topographic characteristics. The area has undergone significant changes since the Athens 2004 Olympic Games because of large scale infrastructure works that lead to the shift of population to areas previously characterized as rural, the increase of the traffic fleet and the operation of highways. However, few recent modelling studies have been performed due to the lack of an accurate, updated emission inventory. The photochemical modelling system MM5/CAMx was applied in order to study the photochemical and particulate pollution characteristics above the GAA for two distinct ten-day periods in the summer of 2006 and 2010, where air pollution episodes occurred. A new updated emission inventory was used based on official data. Comparison of modeled results with measurements revealed the importance and accuracy of the new Athens emission inventory as compared to previous modeling studies. The model managed to reproduce the local meteorological conditions, the daily ozone and particulates fluctuations at different locations across the GAA. Higher ozone levels were found at suburban and rural areas as well as over the sea at the south of the basin. Concerning PM10, high concentrations were computed at the city centre and the southeastern suburbs in agreement with measured data. Source apportionment analysis showed that different sources contribute to the ozone levels, the local sources (traffic, port activities) affecting its formation.

Keywords: Photochemical modelling, urban pollution, greater Athens area, MM5/CAMx.

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Authors: Banti Sidhiwala, T. C. S. M. Gupta

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Mineral oils of naphthenic and paraffinic type are in use as insulating liquids in the transformer applications to protect solid insulation from moisture and ensures effective heat transfer/cooling. The performance of these type of oils have been proven in the field over many decades and the condition monitoring and diagnosis of transformer performance have been successfully monitored through oil properties and dissolved gas analysis methods successfully. Different types of gases can represent various types of faults that may occur due to faulty components or unfavorable operating conditions. A large amount of database has been generated in the industry for dissolved gas analysis in mineral oil-based transformer oils, and various models have been developed to predict faults and analyze data. Additionally, oil specifications and standards have been updated to include stray gassing limits that cover low-temperature faults. This modification has become an effective preventative maintenance tool that can help greatly in understanding the reasons for breakdowns of electrical insulating materials and related components. Natural esters have seen a rise in popularity in recent years due to their "green" credentials. Some of its benefits include biodegradability, a higher fire point, improvement in load capability of transformer and improved solid insulation life than mineral oils. However, the stray gassing test shows that hydrogen and hydrocarbons like methane (CH4) and ethane (C2H6) show very high values which are much higher than the limits of mineral oil standards. Though the standards for these types of esters are yet to be evolved, the higher values of hydrocarbon gases that are available in the market is of concern which might be interpreted as a fault in transformer operation. The current paper focuses on developing a class of natural esters with low levels of stray gassing by American Society for Testing and Materials (ASTM) and International Electric Council (IEC) methods much lower values compared to the natural ester-based products reported in the literature. The experimental results of products are explained.

Keywords: Biodegradability, fire point, dissolved gas analysis, natural ester, stray gassing.

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Authors: Parisa Shirzadeh

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Drug delivery systems in which drugs are traditionally used, multi-stage and at specified intervals by patients, do not meet the needs of the world's up-to-date drug delivery. In today's world, we are dealing with a huge number of recombinant peptide and protean drugs and analogues of hormones in the body, most of which are made with genetic engineering techniques. Most of these drugs are used to treat critical diseases such as cancer. Due to the limitations of the traditional method, researchers sought to find ways to solve the problems of the traditional method to a large extent. Following these efforts, controlled drug release systems were introduced, which have many advantages. Using controlled release of the drug in the body, the concentration of the drug is kept at a certain level, and in a short time, it is done at a higher rate. Graphene is a natural material that is biodegradable, non-toxic, natural and wide surfaces of graphene plates makes it more effective to modify graphene than carbon nanotubes. Graphene oxide is often synthesized using concentrated oxidizers such as sulfuric acid, nitric acid, and potassium permanganate based on Hummer method. graphene oxide is very hydrophilic and easily dissolves in water and creates a stable solution. Graphene oxide (GO) has been modified by chitosan (CS) covalently, developed for control release of doxorubicin (DOX). In this study, GO is produced by the hummer method under acidic conditions. Then, it is chlorinated by oxalyl chloride to increase its reactivity against amine. After that, in the presence of CS, the amino reaction was performed to form amide transplantation, and the DOX was connected to the carrier surface by π-π interaction in buffer phosphate. GO, GO-CS, and GO-CS-DOX were characterized by FT-IR and TGA to recognize new functional groups which show the new bonding of CS to GO, RAMA and SEM to recognize size of layers that show changing in size and number of layers. The ability to load and release is determined by UV-Visible spectroscopy. The loading result showed a high capacity of DOX absorption (99%) and pH dependence identified as a result of DOX release from GO-CS nanosheet at pH 5.3 and 7.4, which show a fast release rate in acidic conditions.

Keywords: Graphene oxide, chitosan, nanosheet, controlled drug release, doxorubicin.

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Authors: Gozel Judakova, Markus Bause

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We present and analyze reliable numerical techniques for simulating complex flow and transport phenomena related to natural gas transportation in pipelines. Such kind of problems are of high interest in the field of petroleum and environmental engineering. Modeling and understanding natural gas flow and transformation processes during transportation is important for the sake of physical realism and the design and operation of pipeline systems. In our approach a two fluid flow model based on a system of coupled hyperbolic conservation laws is considered for describing natural gas flow undergoing hydratization. The accurate numerical approximation of two-phase gas flow remains subject of strong interest in the scientific community. Such hyperbolic problems are characterized by solutions with steep gradients or discontinuities, and their approximation by standard finite element techniques typically gives rise to spurious oscillations and numerical artefacts. Recently, stabilized and discontinuous Galerkin finite element techniques have attracted researchers’ interest. They are highly adapted to the hyperbolic nature of our two-phase flow model. In the presentation a streamline upwind Petrov-Galerkin approach and a discontinuous Galerkin finite element method for the numerical approximation of our flow model of two coupled systems of Euler equations are presented. Then the efficiency and reliability of stabilized continuous and discontinous finite element methods for the approximation is carefully analyzed and the potential of the either classes of numerical schemes is investigated. In particular, standard benchmark problems of two-phase flow like the shock tube problem are used for the comparative numerical study.

Keywords: Discontinuous Galerkin method, Euler system, inviscid two-fluid model, streamline upwind Petrov-Galerkin method, two-phase flow.

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Authors: Arash Parehkar, S. Jamshid Mousavi, Shoubo Bayazidi, Vahid Karami, Laleh Shahidi, Arash Azaranfar, Ali Moridi, M. Shabakhti, Tayebeh Ariyan, Mitra Tofigh, Kaveh Masoumi, Alireza Motahari

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Water resource systems modeling has constantly been a challenge through history for human beings. As the innovative methodological development is evolving alongside computer sciences on one hand, researches are likely to confront more complex and larger water resources systems due to new challenges regarding increased water demands, climate change and human interventions, socio-economic concerns, and environment protection and sustainability. In this research, an automatic calibration scheme has been applied on the Gilan’s large-scale water resource model using mathematical programming. The water resource model’s calibration is developed in order to attune unknown water return flows from demand sites in the complex Sefidroud irrigation network and other related areas. The calibration procedure is validated by comparing several gauged river outflows from the system in the past with model results. The calibration results are pleasantly reasonable presenting a rational insight of the system. Subsequently, the unknown optimized parameters were used in a basin-scale linear optimization model with the ability to evaluate the system’s performance against a reduced inflow scenario in future. Results showed an acceptable match between predicted and observed outflows from the system at selected hydrometric stations. Moreover, an efficient operating policy was determined for Sefidroud dam leading to a minimum water shortage in the reduced inflow scenario.

Keywords: Auto-calibration, Gilan, Large-Scale Water Resources, Simulation.

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Authors: Ramin Mirzada, Takuya Maruyama

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Kabul is the heart of political, commercial, cultural, educational and social life in Afghanistan and the fifth fastest growing city in the world. Minimum income inclined most of Kabul residents to use public transport, especially buses, although there is no proper bus system, beside that there is no proper fare exist in Kabul city Due to wars. From 1992 to 2001 during civil wars, Kabul suffered damage and destruction of its transportation facilities including pavements, sidewalks, traffic circles, drainage systems, traffic signs and signals, trolleybuses and almost all of the public transport system (e.g. Millie bus). This research is mainly focused on Kabul city’s transportation system. In this research, the data used have been gathered by Japan International Cooperation Agency (JICA) in 2008 and this data will be used to find demand and fare structure, additionally a survey was done in 2016 to find satisfaction level of Kabul residents for fare structure. Aim of this research is to observe the demand for Large Buses, compare to the actual supply from the government, analyze the current fare structure and compare it with the proposed fare (distance based fare) structure which has already been analyzed. Outcome of this research shows that the demand of Kabul city residents for the public transport (Large Buses) exceeds from the current supply, so that current public transportation (Large Buses) is not sufficient to serve public transport in Kabul city, worth to be mentioned, that in order to overcome this problem, there is no need to build new roads or exclusive way for buses. This research proposes government to change the fare from fixed fare to distance based fare, invest on public transportation and increase the number of large buses so that the current demand for public transport is met.

Keywords: Transportation, planning, public transport, large buses, fixed fare, distance based fare, Kabul, Afghanistan.

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Authors: Manssour A. Abdulsalam Bin Miskeen, Ahmed Mohamed Alhodairi, Riza Atiq Abdullah Bin O. K. Rahmat

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In the planning point of view, it is essential to have mode choice, due to the massive amount of incurred in transportation systems. The intercity travellers in Libya have distinct features, as against travellers from other countries, which includes cultural and socioeconomic factors. Consequently, the goal of this study is to recognize the behavior of intercity travel using disaggregate models, for projecting the demand of nation-level intercity travel in Libya. Multinomial Logit Model for all the intercity trips has been formulated to examine the national-level intercity transportation in Libya. The Multinomial logit model was calibrated using nationwide revealed preferences (RP) and stated preferences (SP) survey. The model was developed for deference purpose of intercity trips (work, social and recreational). The variables of the model have been predicted based on maximum likelihood method. The data needed for model development were obtained from all major intercity corridors in Libya. The final sample size consisted of 1300 interviews. About two-thirds of these data were used for model calibration, and the remaining parts were used for model validation. This study, which is the first of its kind in Libya, investigates the intercity traveler’s mode-choice behavior. The intercity travel mode-choice model was successfully calibrated and validated. The outcomes indicate that, the overall model is effective and yields higher precision of estimation. The proposed model is beneficial, due to the fact that, it is receptive to a lot of variables, and can be employed to determine the impact of modifications in the numerous characteristics on the need for various travel modes. Estimations of the model might also be of valuable to planners, who can estimate possibilities for various modes and determine the impact of unique policy modifications on the need for intercity travel.

Keywords: Multinomial logit model, improved intercity transport, intercity mode-choice behavior, disaggregate analysis.

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Authors: Ali Ghaffari, Mansour Nikkhah Bahrami, Hesam Parsa

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In this paper a comprehensive model of a fossil fueled power plant (FFPP) is developed in order to evaluate the performance of a newly designed turbine follower controller. Considering the drawbacks of previous works, an overall model is developed to minimize the error between each subsystem model output and the experimental data obtained at the actual power plant. The developed model is organized in two main subsystems namely; Boiler and Turbine. Considering each FFPP subsystem characteristics, different modeling approaches are developed. For economizer, evaporator, superheater and reheater, first order models are determined based on principles of mass and energy conservation. Simulations verify the accuracy of the developed models. Due to the nonlinear characteristics of attemperator, a new model, based on a genetic-fuzzy systems utilizing Pittsburgh approach is developed showing a promising performance vis-à-vis those derived with other methods like ANFIS. The optimization constraints are handled utilizing penalty functions. The effect of increasing the number of rules and membership functions on the performance of the proposed model is also studied and evaluated. The turbine model is developed based on the equation of adiabatic expansion. Parameters of all evaluated models are tuned by means of evolutionary algorithms. Based on the developed model a fuzzy PI controller is developed. It is then successfully implemented in the turbine follower control strategy of the plant. In this control strategy instead of keeping control parameters constant, they are adjusted on-line with regard to the error and the error rate. It is shown that the response of the system improves significantly. It is also shown that fuel consumption decreases considerably.

Keywords: Attemperator, Evolutionary algorithms, Fossil fuelled power plant (FFPP), Fuzzy set theory, Gain scheduling

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Authors: Ke Zhao, Ballarat Colin Richardson, Jerry Courvisanos, John Crawford

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Climate change has profound consequences for the agriculture of south-eastern Australia and its climate-induced water shortage in the Murray-Darling Basin. Post Keynesian Economics (PKE) macro-dynamics, along with Kaleckian investment and growth theory, are used to develop an ecological-economic system dynamics model of this complex nonlinear river basin system. The Murray- Darling Basin Simulation Model (MDB-SM) uses the principles of PKE to incorporate the fundamental uncertainty of economic behaviors of farmers regarding the investments they make and the climate change they face, particularly as regards water ecosystem services. MDB-SM provides a framework for macroeconomic policies, especially for long-term fiscal policy and for policy directed at the sustainability of agricultural water, as measured by socio-economic well-being considerations, which include sustainable consumption and investment in the river basin. The model can also reproduce other ecological and economic aspects and, for certain parameters and initial values, exhibit endogenous business cycles and ecological sustainability with realistic characteristics. Most importantly, MDBSM provides a platform for the analysis of alternative economic policy scenarios. These results reveal the importance of understanding water ecosystem adaptation under climate change by integrating a PKE macroeconomic analytical framework with the system dynamics modelling approach. Once parameterised and supplied with historical initial values, MDB-SM should prove to be a practical tool to provide alternative long-term policy simulations of agricultural water and socio-economic well-being.

Keywords: Agricultural water, Macroeconomic dynamics, Modeling, Investment dynamics, Sustainability, Unemployment, Economics, Keynesian, Kaleckian.

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Authors: Ju Peng Poh, Jun Yu Charles Lee, Jonathan Chew Hoe Khoo

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The emergence of digital twin technology, a digital replica of physical world, has improved the real-time access to data from sensors about the performance of buildings. This digital transformation has opened up many opportunities to improve the management of the building by using the data collected to help monitor consumption patterns and energy leakages. One example is the integration of predictive models for anomaly detection. In this paper, we use the GAM (Generalised Additive Model) for the anomaly detection of Air Handling Units (AHU) power consumption pattern. There is ample research work on the use of GAM for the prediction of power consumption at the office building and nation-wide level. However, there is limited illustration of its anomaly detection capabilities, prescriptive analytics case study, and its integration with the latest development of digital twin technology. In this paper, we applied the general GAM modelling framework on the historical data of the AHU power consumption and cooling load of the building between Jan 2018 to Aug 2019 from an education campus in Singapore to train prediction models that, in turn, yield predicted values and ranges. The historical data are seamlessly extracted from the digital twin for modelling purposes. We enhanced the utility of the GAM model by using it to power a real-time anomaly detection system based on the forward predicted ranges. The magnitude of deviation from the upper and lower bounds of the uncertainty intervals is used to inform and identify anomalous data points, all based on historical data, without explicit intervention from domain experts. Notwithstanding, the domain expert fits in through an optional feedback loop through which iterative data cleansing is performed. After an anomalously high or low level of power consumption detected, a set of rule-based conditions are evaluated in real-time to help determine the next course of action for the facilities manager. The performance of GAM is then compared with other approaches to evaluate its effectiveness. Lastly, we discuss the successfully deployment of this approach for the detection of anomalous power consumption pattern and illustrated with real-world use cases.

Keywords: Anomaly detection, digital twin, Generalised Additive Model, Power Consumption Model.

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Authors: Maumita Bhattacharya

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Evolutionary Algorithms are population-based, stochastic search techniques, widely used as efficient global optimizers. However, many real life optimization problems often require finding optimal solution to complex high dimensional, multimodal problems involving computationally very expensive fitness function evaluations. Use of evolutionary algorithms in such problem domains is thus practically prohibitive. An attractive alternative is to build meta models or use an approximation of the actual fitness functions to be evaluated. These meta models are order of magnitude cheaper to evaluate compared to the actual function evaluation. Many regression and interpolation tools are available to build such meta models. This paper briefly discusses the architectures and use of such meta-modeling tools in an evolutionary optimization context. We further present two evolutionary algorithm frameworks which involve use of meta models for fitness function evaluation. The first framework, namely the Dynamic Approximate Fitness based Hybrid EA (DAFHEA) model [14] reduces computation time by controlled use of meta-models (in this case approximate model generated by Support Vector Machine regression) to partially replace the actual function evaluation by approximate function evaluation. However, the underlying assumption in DAFHEA is that the training samples for the metamodel are generated from a single uniform model. This does not take into account uncertain scenarios involving noisy fitness functions. The second model, DAFHEA-II, an enhanced version of the original DAFHEA framework, incorporates a multiple-model based learning approach for the support vector machine approximator to handle noisy functions [15]. Empirical results obtained by evaluating the frameworks using several benchmark functions demonstrate their efficiency

Keywords: Meta model, Evolutionary algorithm, Stochastictechnique, Fitness function, Optimization, Support vector machine.

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Authors: M. Ashaque Meah, M. Shah Noor, M Asif Arefin, Md. Fazlul Karim

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A numerical technique in a boundary-fitted curvilinear grid model is developed to simulate the extent of inland inundation along the coastal belts of Peninsular Malaysia and Southern Thailand due to 2004 Indian ocean tsunami. Tsunami propagation and run-up are also studied in this paper. The vertically integrated shallow water equations are solved by using the method of lines (MOL). For this purpose the boundary-fitted grids are generated along the coastal and island boundaries and the other open boundaries of the model domain. A transformation is used to the governing equations so that the transformed physical domain is converted into a rectangular one. The MOL technique is applied to the transformed shallow water equations and the boundary conditions so that the equations are converted into ordinary differential equations initial value problem. Finally the 4^th order Runge-Kutta method is used to solve these ordinary differential equations. The moving boundary technique is applied instead of fixed sea side wall or fixed coastal boundary to ensure the movement of the coastal boundary. The extent of intrusion of water and associated tsunami propagation are simulated for the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami along the west coast of Peninsular Malaysia and southern Thailand. The simulated results are compared with the results obtained from a finite difference model and the data available in the USGS website. All simulations show better approximation than earlier research and also show excellent agreement with the observed data.

Keywords: Open boundary condition, moving boundary condition, boundary-fitted curvilinear grids, far field tsunami, Shallow Water Equations, tsunami source, Indonesian tsunami of 2004.

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Authors: Taiwo Olusoji Lawrence, Peace Mawo Aaron

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Seismic analysis of bedforms has proven to be one of the best ways to study deepwater sedimentary features. Canyons are known to be sediment transportation conduit. Sediment wave are large-scale depositional bedforms in various parts of the world's oceans formed predominantly by suspended load transport. These undulating objects usually have tens of meters to a few kilometers in wavelength and a height of several meters. Cyclic steps have long long-wave upstream-migrating bedforms confined by internal hydraulic jumps. They usually occur in regions with high gradients and slope breaks. Cyclic steps and migrating sediment waves are the most common bedform on the seafloor. Cyclic steps and related sediment wave bedforms are significant to the morpho-dynamic evolution of deep-water depositional systems architectural elements, especially those located along tectonically active margins with high gradients and slope breaks that can promote internal hydraulic jumps in turbidity currents. This report examined sedimentary activities and sediment transportation in submarine canyons and provided distinctive insight into factors that created a complex seabed canyon system in the Ceara Fortaleza basin Brazilian Equatorial Margin (BEM). The growing importance of cyclic steps made it imperative to understand the parameters leading to their formation, migration, and architecture as well as their controls on sediment transport in canyon thalweg. We extracted the parameters of the observed bedforms and evaluated the aspect ratio and asymmetricity. We developed a relationship between the hydraulic jump magnitude, depth of the hydraulic fall and the length of the cyclic step therein. It was understood that an increase in the height of the cyclic step increases the magnitude of the hydraulic jump and thereby increases the rate of deposition on the preceding stoss side. An increase in the length of the cyclic steps reduces the magnitude of the hydraulic jump and reduces the rate of deposition at the stoss side. Therefore, flat stoss side was noticed at most preceding cyclic step and sediment wave.

Keywords: Ceara Fortaleza, sediment wave, cyclic steps, submarine canyons.

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Authors: Bahar Hazal Yalçınkaya, Bayram Yılmaz, Mustafa Özilgen

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Brain information transmission in the neuronal network occurs in the form of electrical signals. Neural work transmits information between the neurons or neurons and target cells by moving charged particles in a voltage field; a fraction of the energy utilized in this process is dissipated via entropy generation. Exergy loss and entropy generation models demonstrate the inefficiencies of the communication along the dendritic trees. In this study, neurons of 4 different animals were analyzed with one dimensional cable model with N=6 identical dendritic trees and M=3 order of symmetrical branching. Each branch symmetrically bifurcates in accordance with the 3/2 power law in an infinitely long cylinder with the usual core conductor assumptions, where membrane potential is conserved in the core conductor at all branching points. In the model, exergy loss and entropy generation rates are calculated for each branch of equivalent cylinders of electrotonic length (L) ranging from 0.1 to 1.5 for four different dendritic branches, input branch (BI), and sister branch (BS) and two cousin branches (BC-1 & BC-2). Thermodynamic analysis with the data coming from two different cat motoneuron studies show that in both experiments nearly the same amount of exergy is lost while generating nearly the same amount of entropy. Guinea pig vagal motoneuron loses twofold more exergy compared to the cat models and the squid exergy loss and entropy generation were nearly tenfold compared to the guinea pig vagal motoneuron model. Thermodynamic analysis show that the dissipated energy in the dendritic tress is directly proportional with the electrotonic length, exergy loss and entropy generation. Entropy generation and exergy loss show variability not only between the vertebrate and invertebrates but also within the same class. Concurrently, single action potential Na⁺ ion load, metabolic energy utilization and its thermodynamic aspect contributed for squid giant axon and mammalian motoneuron model. Energy demand is supplied to the neurons in the form of Adenosine triphosphate (ATP). Exergy destruction and entropy generation upon ATP hydrolysis are calculated. ATP utilization, exergy destruction and entropy generation showed differences in each model depending on the variations in the ion transport along the channels.

Keywords: ATP utilization, entropy generation, exergy loss, neuronal information transmittance.

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Authors: Zoran Veršić, Josip Galić, Marin Binički, Lucija Stepinac

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With the current increase in CO2 emissions and global warming, the sustainability of both existing and new solutions must be assessed on a wide scale. As the implementation of closed cavity façades (CCF) is on the rise, various factors must be included in the analysis of new types of CCF. This paper aims to cover the relevant factors included in the sustainability assessment of new types of CCF. Several mathematical models are being used to describe the physical behavior of CCF. Depending on the type of CCF, they cover the main factors which affect the durability of the façade: thermal behavior of various elements in the façade, stress and deflection of the glass panels, pressure and the moisture control in the cavity. CCF itself represents a complex system in which all mentioned factors must be considered mutually. Still, the façade is only an envelope of a more complex system, the building. Choice of the façade dictates the heat loss and the heat gain, thermal comfort of inner space, natural lighting, and ventilation. Annual energy consumption for heating, cooling, lighting, and maintenance costs will present the operational advantages or disadvantages of the chosen façade system in economic and environmental aspects. Still, the only operational viewpoint is not all-inclusive. As the building codes constantly demand higher energy efficiency as well as transfer to renewable energy sources, the ratio of embodied and lifetime operational energy footprint of buildings is changing. With the drop in operational energy CO2 emissions, embodied energy emissions present a larger and larger share in the lifecycle emissions of the building. Taking all into account, the sustainability assessment of a façade, as well as other major building elements, should include all mentioned factors during the lifecycle of an element. The challenge of such an approach is a timescale. Depending on the climatic conditions on the building site, the expected lifetime of a glazed façade can exceed 25 years. In such a timespan, some of the factors can be estimated more precisely than the others. However, the ones depending on the socio-economic conditions are more likely to be harder to predict than the natural ones like the climatic load. This work recognizes and summarizes the relevant factors needed for the assessment of a new type of CCF, considering the entire lifetime of a façade element in an environmental aspect.

Keywords: Assessment, closed cavity façade, life cycle, sustainability.

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Authors: O. S. Ebrahim, K. O. Shawky, M. A. Badr, P. K. Jain

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This paper describes an efficient; low-cost; high-availability; induction motor (IM) drive system with intelligent supervisory control for water distribution networks including storage tank. To increase the operational efficiency and reduce cost, the IM drive system includes main pumping unit and an auxiliary voltage source inverter (VSI) fed unit. The main unit comprises smart star/delta starter, regenerative fluid clutch, switched VAR compensator, and hysteresis liquid-level controller. Three-state energy saving mode (ESM) is defined at no-load and a logic algorithm is developed for best energetic cost reduction. To reduce voltage sag, the supervisory controller operates the switched VAR compensator upon motor starting. To provide smart star/delta starter at low cost, a method based on current sensing is developed for interlocking, malfunction detection, and life–cycles counting and used to synthesize an improved fuzzy logic (FL) based availability assessment scheme. Furthermore, a recurrent neural network (RNN) full state estimator is proposed to provide sensor fault-tolerant algorithm for the feedback control. The auxiliary unit is working at low flow rates and improves the system efficiency and flexibility for distributed generation during islanding mode. Compared with doubly-fed IM, the proposed one ensures 30% working throughput under main motor/pump fault conditions, higher efficiency, and marginal cost difference. This is critically important in case of water networks. Theoretical analysis, computer simulations, cost study, as well as efficiency evaluation, using timely cascaded energy-conservative systems, are performed on IM experimental setup to demonstrate the validity and effectiveness of the proposed drive and control.

Keywords: Artificial Neural Network, ANN, Availability Assessment, Cloud Computing, Energy Saving, Induction Machine, IM, Supervisory Control, Fuzzy Logic, FL, Pumped Storage.

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Authors: C. Ardil

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In this paper, the comparison of composite programming and compromise programming for the aircraft selection problem is discussed using the multiple criteria decision analysis method. The decision making process requires the prior definition and fulfillment of certain factors, especially when it comes to complex areas such as aircraft selection problems. The proposed technique gives more efficient results by extending the composite programming and compromise programming, which are widely used in modeling multiple criteria decisions. The proposed model is applied to a practical decision problem for evaluating and selecting aircraft problems.A selection of aircraft was made based on the proposed approach developed in the field of multiple criteria decision making. The model presented is solved by using the following methods: composite programming, and compromise programming. The importance values of the weight coefficients of the criteria are calculated using the mean weight method. The evaluation and ranking of aircraft are carried out using the composite programming and compromise programming methods. In order to determine the stability of the model and the ability to apply the developed composite programming and compromise programming approach, the paper analyzes its sensitivity, which involves changing the value of the coefficient λ and q in the first part. The second part of the sensitivity analysis relates to the application of different multiple criteria decision making methods, composite programming and compromise programming. In addition, in the third part of the sensitivity analysis, the Spearman correlation coefficient of the ranks obtained was calculated which confirms the applicability of all the proposed approaches.

Keywords: composite programming, compromise programming, additive weighted model, multiplicative weighted model, multiple criteria decision making analysis, MCDMA, aircraft selection

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Authors: Ganesh D. Kale, Sheela N. Vadsola

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Soil erosion is the most serious problem faced at global and local level. So planning of soil conservation measures has become prominent agenda in the view of water basin managers. To plan for the soil conservation measures, the information on soil erosion is essential. Universal Soil Loss Equation (USLE), Revised Universal Soil Loss Equation 1 (RUSLE1or RUSLE) and Modified Universal Soil Loss Equation (MUSLE), RUSLE 1.06, RUSLE1.06c, RUSLE2 are most widely used conventional erosion estimation methods. The essential drawbacks of USLE, RUSLE1 equations are that they are based on average annual values of its parameters and so their applicability to small temporal scale is questionable. Also these equations do not estimate runoff generated soil erosion. So applicability of these equations to estimate runoff generated soil erosion is questionable. Data used in formation of USLE, RUSLE1 equations was plot data so its applicability at greater spatial scale needs some scale correction factors to be induced. On the other hand MUSLE is unsuitable for predicting sediment yield of small and large events. Although the new revised forms of USLE like RUSLE 1.06, RUSLE1.06c and RUSLE2 were land use independent and they have almost cleared all the drawbacks in earlier versions like USLE and RUSLE1, they are based on the regional data of specific area and their applicability to other areas having different climate, soil, land use is questionable. These conventional equations are applicable for sheet and rill erosion and unable to predict gully erosion and spatial pattern of rills. So the research was focused on development of nonconventional (other than conventional) methods of soil erosion estimation. When these non-conventional methods are combined with GIS and RS, gives spatial distribution of soil erosion. In the present paper the review of literature on non- conventional methods of soil erosion estimation supported by GIS and RS is presented.

Keywords: Conventional methods, GIS, non-conventionalmethods, remote sensing, soil erosion modeling

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Authors: M.karavanmasjedi, N.Hedayat , A.Rohani, H.Shirin

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Sedimentation process resulting from soil erosion in the water basin especially in arid and semi-arid where poor vegetation cover in the slope of the mountains upstream could contribute to sediment formation. The consequence of sedimentation not only makes considerable change in the morphology of the river and the hydraulic characteristics but would also have a major challenge for the operation and maintenance of the canal network which depend on water flow to meet the stakeholder-s requirements. For this reason mathematical modeling can be used to simulate the effective factors on scouring, sediment transport and their settling along the waterways. This is particularly important behind the reservoirs which enable the operators to estimate the useful life of these hydraulic structures. The aim of this paper is to simulate the sedimentation and erosion in the eastern and western water intake structures of the Dez Diversion weir using GSTARS-3 software. This is done to estimate the sedimentation and investigate the ways in which to optimize the process and minimize the operational problems. Results indicated that the at the furthest point upstream of the diversion weir, the coarser sediment grains tended to settle. The reason for this is the construction of the phantom bridge and the outstanding rocks just upstream of the structure. The construction of these along the river course has reduced the momentum energy require to push the sediment loads and make it possible for them to settle wherever the river regime allows it. Results further indicated a trend for the sediment size in such a way that as the focus of study shifts downstream the size of grains get smaller and vice versa. It was also found that the finding of the GSTARS-3 had a close proximity with the sets of the observed data. This suggests that the software is a powerful analytical tool which can be applied in the river engineering project with a minimum of costs and relatively accurate results.

Keywords: Erosion, sedimentation, Dez Diversion weir, GSTARS-3

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Authors: Mutuku Muvengei, John Kihiu

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This paper focuses on the development of bond graph dynamic model of the mechanical dynamics of an excavating mechanism previously designed to be used with small tractors, which are fabricated in the Engineering Workshops of Jomo Kenyatta University of Agriculture and Technology. To develop a mechanical dynamics model of the manipulator, forward recursive equations similar to those applied in iterative Newton-Euler method were used to obtain kinematic relationships between the time rates of joint variables and the generalized cartesian velocities for the centroids of the links. Representing the obtained kinematic relationships in bondgraphic form, while considering the link weights and momenta as the elements led to a detailed bond graph model of the manipulator. The bond graph method was found to reduce significantly the number of recursive computations performed on a 3 DOF manipulator for a mechanical dynamic model to result, hence indicating that bond graph method is more computationally efficient than the Newton-Euler method in developing dynamic models of 3 DOF planar manipulators. The model was verified by comparing the joint torque expressions of a two link planar manipulator to those obtained using Newton- Euler and Lagrangian methods as analyzed in robotic textbooks. The expressions were found to agree indicating that the model captures the aspects of rigid body dynamics of the manipulator. Based on the model developed, actuator sizing and valve sizing methodologies were developed and used to obtain the optimal sizes of the pistons and spool valve ports respectively. It was found that using the pump with the sized flow rate capacity, the engine of the tractor is able to power the excavating mechanism in digging a sandy-loom soil.

Keywords: Actuators, bond graphs, inverse dynamics, recursive equations, quintic polynomial trajectory.

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