Search results for: Josip Galić

Authors: Josip Visković, Josip Arnerić, Ante Rozga

Abstract:

Based on the fact that volatility is time varying in high frequency data and that periods of high volatility tend to cluster, the most successful and popular models in modeling time varying volatility are GARCH type models. When financial returns exhibit sudden jumps that are due to structural breaks, standard GARCH models show high volatility persistence, i.e. integrated behavior of the conditional variance. In such situations models in which the parameters are allowed to change over time are more appropriate. This paper compares different GARCH models in terms of their ability to describe structural changes in returns caused by financial crisis at stock markets of six selected central and east European countries. The empirical analysis demonstrates that Markov regime switching GARCH model resolves the problem of excessive persistence and outperforms uni-regime GARCH models in forecasting volatility when sudden switching occurs in response to financial crisis.

Keywords: Central and east European countries, financial crisis, Markov switching GARCH model, transition probabilities.

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Authors: Zoran Veršić, Josip Galić, Marin Binički, Lucija Stepinac

Abstract:

With the current increase in CO2 emissions and global warming, the sustainability of both existing and new solutions must be assessed on a wide scale. As the implementation of closed cavity façades (CCF) is on the rise, various factors must be included in the analysis of new types of CCF. This paper aims to cover the relevant factors included in the sustainability assessment of new types of CCF. Several mathematical models are being used to describe the physical behavior of CCF. Depending on the type of CCF, they cover the main factors which affect the durability of the façade: thermal behavior of various elements in the façade, stress and deflection of the glass panels, pressure and the moisture control in the cavity. CCF itself represents a complex system in which all mentioned factors must be considered mutually. Still, the façade is only an envelope of a more complex system, the building. Choice of the façade dictates the heat loss and the heat gain, thermal comfort of inner space, natural lighting, and ventilation. Annual energy consumption for heating, cooling, lighting, and maintenance costs will present the operational advantages or disadvantages of the chosen façade system in economic and environmental aspects. Still, the only operational viewpoint is not all-inclusive. As the building codes constantly demand higher energy efficiency as well as transfer to renewable energy sources, the ratio of embodied and lifetime operational energy footprint of buildings is changing. With the drop in operational energy CO2 emissions, embodied energy emissions present a larger and larger share in the lifecycle emissions of the building. Taking all into account, the sustainability assessment of a façade, as well as other major building elements, should include all mentioned factors during the lifecycle of an element. The challenge of such an approach is a timescale. Depending on the climatic conditions on the building site, the expected lifetime of a glazed façade can exceed 25 years. In such a timespan, some of the factors can be estimated more precisely than the others. However, the ones depending on the socio-economic conditions are more likely to be harder to predict than the natural ones like the climatic load. This work recognizes and summarizes the relevant factors needed for the assessment of a new type of CCF, considering the entire lifetime of a façade element in an environmental aspect.

Keywords: Assessment, closed cavity façade, life cycle, sustainability.

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Authors: Mirjana Radman-Funarić, Katarina Potnik Galić

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The paper presents an analysis of linkages and structures of co-operation and their intensity like the potential for the establishment of clusters in the Central and Eastern (Pannonian) Croatian. Starting from the theoretical elaboration of the need for entrepreneurs to organize through the cluster model and the terms of their self-actualization, related to the importance of traditional values in terms of benefits, social capital and assess where the company now is, in order to prove the need to create their own identity in terms of clustering. The institutional dimensions of social capital where the public sector has the best role in creating the social structure of clusters, and social dimensions of social capital in terms of trust, cooperation and networking will be analyzed to what extent the trust and coherency are present between companies in the Brod posavina and Pozega slavonia County, expressed through the readiness of inclusion in clusters in the NUTS II region - Central and Eastern (Pannonian) Croatia, as a homogeneous economic entity, with emphasis on limiting factors that stand in the way of greater competitiveness.

Keywords: Analysis of linkages, structures of co-operation, Cluster, Region

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Authors: Josip Visković, Ana Rimac Smiljanić, Ines Ivić

Abstract:

Housing loans play an important role in CEE countries’ economies. This fact is based on their share in total loans to households and their importance for economic activity and growth in CEE countries. Therefore, it is important to find out key determinants of housing loans demand in these countries. The aim of this study is to research and analyze the determinants of the demand for housing loans in Croatia. In this regard, the effect of economic activity, loan terms and real estate prices were analyzed. Also, the aim of this study is to find out what motivates people to take housing loans. Therefore, primarily empirical study was conducted among the Croatian residents. The results show that demand for housing loans is positively affected by economic growth, higher personal income and flexible loan terms, while it is negatively affected by interest rate rise.

Keywords: CEE countries, Croatia, demand determinants, housing loans.

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Authors: Josip Vasilj, Petar Sarajcev, Damir Jakus

Abstract:

One of the major difficulties introduced with wind power penetration is the inherent uncertainty in production originating from uncertain wind conditions. This uncertainty impacts many different aspects of power system operation, especially the balancing power requirements. For this reason, in power system development planing, it is necessary to evaluate the potential uncertainty in future wind power generation. For this purpose, simulation models are required, reproducing the performance of wind power forecasts. This paper presents a wind power forecast error simulation models which are based on the stochastic process simulation. Proposed models capture the most important statistical parameters recognized in wind power forecast error time series. Furthermore, two distinct models are presented based on data availability. First model uses wind speed measurements on potential or existing wind power plant locations, while the seconds model uses statistical distribution of wind speeds.

Keywords: Wind power, Uncertainty, Stochastic process, Monte Carlo simulation.

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Authors: Petar Sarajcev, Josip Vasilj, Damir Jakus

Abstract:

This paper presents a novel statistical description of the counterpoise effective length due to lightning surges, where the (impulse) effective length had been obtained by means of regressive formulas applied to the transient simulation results. The effective length is described in terms of a statistical distribution function, from which median, mean, variance, and other parameters of interest could be readily obtained. The influence of lightning current amplitude, lightning front duration, and soil resistivity on the effective length has been accounted for, assuming statistical nature of these parameters. A method for determining the optimal counterpoise length, in terms of the statistical impulse effective length, is also presented. It is based on estimating the number of dangerous events associated with lightning strikes. Proposed statistical description and the associated method provide valuable information which could aid the design engineer in optimising physical lengths of counterpoises in different grounding arrangements and soil resistivity situations.

Keywords: Counterpoise, Grounding conductor, Effective length, Lightning, Monte Carlo method, Statistical distribution.

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Authors: Valentina Obradović, Josip Mesić, Maja Ergović Ravančić, Kamila Mijowska, Brankica Svitlica

Abstract:

French oak and American oak barrels are most famous all over the world, but barrels of different origin can also be used for obtaining high quality wines. The aim of this research was to compare the influence of different Slovenian (Croatian) and French oak barrels on the quality of Chardonnay wine. Grapes were grown in the Croatian wine growing region of Kutjevo in 2015. Chardonnay wines were tested for basic oenological parameters (alcohol, extract, reducing sugar, SO₂, acidity), total polyphenols content (Folin-Ciocalteu method), antioxidant activity (ABTS and DPPH method) and colour density. Sensory evaluation was performed by students of viticulture/oenology. Samples produced by classical fermentation and ageing in French oak barrels had better results for polyphenols and sensory evaluation (especially low toasting level) than samples in Slovenian barrels. All tested samples were scored as a “quality” or “premium quality” wines. Sur lie method of fermentation and ageing in Slovenian oak barrel had very good extraction of polyphenols and high antioxidant activity with the usage of authentic yeasts, while commercial yeast strain resulted in worse chemical and sensory parameters.

Keywords: Chardonnay, French oak, Slovenian oak, sur lie.

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Authors: A. Heshmati, M. Y Alikhani, M. T. Godarzi, M. R. Sadeghimanesh

Abstract:

Herbal essential oil and extracts are a good source of natural antioxidants and antimicrobial compounds. Hypericum is one of the potential sources of these compounds. In this study, the antioxidant and antimicrobial activity of essential oil and aqueous, methanol, ethanol, ethyl acetate and acetone extract of Hypericum scabrum was assessed. Flowers of Hypericum scabrum were collected from the surrounding mountains of Hamadan province and after drying in the shade, the essential oil of the plant was extracted by Clevenger and water, methanol, ethanol, ethyl acetate and acetone extract was obtained by maceration method. Essential oil compounds were identified using the GC-Mass. The Folin-Ciocalteau and aluminum chloride (AlCl₃) colorimetric method was used to measure the amount of phenolic acid and flavonoids, respectively. Antioxidant activity was evaluated using DPPH and FRAP. The minimum inhibitory concentration (MIC) and the minimum bacterial/fungicide concentration (MBC/MFC) of essential oil and extracts were evaluated against Staphylococcus aureus, Bacillus cereus, Pseudomonas aeruginosa, Salmonella typhimurium, Aspergillus flavus and Candida albicans. The essential oil yield of was 0.35%, the lowest and highest extract yield was related to ethyl acetate and water extract. The most component of essential oil was α-Pinene (46.35%). The methanol extracts had the highest phenolic acid (95.65 ± 4.72 µg galic acid equivalent/g dry plant) and flavonoids (25.39 ± 2.73 µg quercetin equivalent/g dry plant). The percentage of DPPH radical inhibition showed positive correlation with concentrations of essential oil or extract. The methanol and ethanol extract had the highest DDPH radical inhibitory. Essential oil and extracts of Hypericum had antimicrobial activity against the microorganisms studied in this research. The MIC and MBC values for essential oils were in the range of 25-25.6 and 25-50 μg/mL, respectively. For the extracts, these values were 1.5625-100 and 3.125-100 μg/mL, respectively. Methanol extracts had the highest antimicrobial activity. Essential oil and extract of Hypericum scabrum, especially methanol extract, have proper antimicrobial and antioxidant activity, and it can be used to control the oxidation and inhibit the growth of pathogenic and spoilage microorganisms. In addition, it can be used as a substitute for synthetic antioxidant and antimicrobial compounds.

Keywords: Antimicrobial, antioxidant, extract, hypericum.

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