Search results for: Statistical forecasting.

Authors: Cristina G. Dascâlu, Corina Dima Cozma, Elena Carmen Cotrutz

Abstract:

The medical data statistical analysis often requires the using of some special techniques, because of the particularities of these data. The principal components analysis and the data clustering are two statistical methods for data mining very useful in the medical field, the first one as a method to decrease the number of studied parameters, and the second one as a method to analyze the connections between diagnosis and the data about the patient-s condition. In this paper we investigate the implications obtained from a specific data analysis technique: the data clustering preceded by a selection of the most relevant parameters, made using the principal components analysis. Our assumption was that, using the principal components analysis before data clustering - in order to select and to classify only the most relevant parameters – the accuracy of clustering is improved, but the practical results showed the opposite fact: the clustering accuracy decreases, with a percentage approximately equal with the percentage of information loss reported by the principal components analysis.

Keywords: Data clustering, medical data, principal components analysis.

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Authors: İsmail Karaca, Ömer Söner

Abstract:

The use of advanced methods has been increasing day by day in the maritime sector, which is one of the sectors least affected by the COVID-19 pandemic. It is aimed to minimize accidents, especially by using advanced methods in the investigation of marine accidents. This research aimed to conduct an exploratory statistical analysis of particular ship accidents in the Transport Safety Investigation Center of Turkey database. 46 ship accidents, which occurred between 2010-2018, have been selected from the database. In addition to the availability of a reliable and comprehensive database, taking advantage of the robust statistical models for investigation is critical to improving the safety of ships. Thus, descriptive analysis has been used in the research to identify causes and conditional factors related to different types of ship accidents. The research outcomes underline the fact that environmental factors and day and night ratio have great influence on ship safety.

Keywords: Descriptive analysis, maritime industry, maritime safety, marine accident analysis.

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Authors: Hy Dang, Bo Mei

Abstract:

The development of machine learning methods and techniques has opened doors for investigation in many areas such as medicines, economics, finance, etc. One active research area involving machine learning is stock market prediction. This research paper tries to consider multiple techniques and methods for stock movement prediction using historical price or price factors. The paper explores the effectiveness of some deep learning frameworks for forecasting stock. Moreover, an architecture (TimeStock) is proposed which takes the representation of time into account apart from the price information itself. Our model achieves a promising result that shows a potential approach for the stock movement prediction problem.

Keywords: Classification, machine learning, time representation, stock prediction.

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Authors: Rashid S S, Alam M Z, Karim M I A, Salleh, M H

Abstract:

A statistical optimization was studied to design a media composition to produce optimum cellulolytic enzyme where palm oil mill effluent (POME) as a basal medium and filamentous fungus, Trichoderma reesei RUT-C30 were used in the liquid state bioconversion(LSB). 2% (w/v) total suspended solid, TSS, of the POME supplemented with 1% (w/v) cellulose, 0.5%(w/v) peptone and 0.02% (v/v) Tween 80 was estimated to produce the optimum CMCase activity of 18.53 U/ml through the statistical analysis followed by the faced centered central composite design(FCCCD). The probability values of cellulose (<0.0011) and peptone (0.0021) indicated the significant effect on the production of cellulase with the determination coefficient (R2) of 0.995.

Keywords: Face centered central composite design (FCCCD), Liquid state bioconversion (LSB), Palm oil mill effluent, Trichoderma reesei RUT C-30.

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Authors: Mehrnoush Shamsfard, Azadeh Nematzadeh, Sarah Motiee

Abstract:

Increasing growth of information volume in the internet causes an increasing need to develop new (semi)automatic methods for retrieval of documents and ranking them according to their relevance to the user query. In this paper, after a brief review on ranking models, a new ontology based approach for ranking HTML documents is proposed and evaluated in various circumstances. Our approach is a combination of conceptual, statistical and linguistic methods. This combination reserves the precision of ranking without loosing the speed. Our approach exploits natural language processing techniques for extracting phrases and stemming words. Then an ontology based conceptual method will be used to annotate documents and expand the query. To expand a query the spread activation algorithm is improved so that the expansion can be done in various aspects. The annotated documents and the expanded query will be processed to compute the relevance degree exploiting statistical methods. The outstanding features of our approach are (1) combining conceptual, statistical and linguistic features of documents, (2) expanding the query with its related concepts before comparing to documents, (3) extracting and using both words and phrases to compute relevance degree, (4) improving the spread activation algorithm to do the expansion based on weighted combination of different conceptual relationships and (5) allowing variable document vector dimensions. A ranking system called ORank is developed to implement and test the proposed model. The test results will be included at the end of the paper.

Keywords: Document ranking, Ontology, Spread activation algorithm, Annotation.

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Authors: Mohamad Ghozali Hassan, Abdul Aziz Othman, Mohd Azril Ismail

Abstract:

Adapting quickly to environmental dynamism is essential for an organization to develop outsourcing strategic and management in order to sustain competitive advantage. This research used the Partial Least Squares Structural Equation Modeling (PLSSEM) tool to investigate the factors of environmental dynamism impact on the strategic outsourcing success among electrical and electronic manufacturing industries in outsourcing management. Statistical results confirm that the inclusion of customer demand, technological change, and competition level as a new combination concept of environmental dynamism, has positive effects on outsourcing success. Additionally, this research demonstrates the acceptability of PLS-SEM as a statistical analysis to furnish a better understanding of environmental dynamism in outsourcing management in Malaysia. A practical finding contributes to academics and practitioners in the field of outsourcing management.

Keywords: Environmental Dynamism, Customer Demand, Technological Change, Competition Level, Outsourcing Success.

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Authors: Hee-Jeong Ahn, Kee-Won Kim, Seung-Hoon Kim

Abstract:

The knowledge of the relationship between characters can help readers to understand the overall story or plot of the literary fiction. In this paper, we present a method for extracting the specific relationship between characters from a Korean literary fiction. Generally, methods for extracting relationships between characters in text are statistical or computational methods based on the sentence distance between characters without considering Korean linguistic features. Furthermore, it is difficult to extract the relationship with direction from text, such as one-sided love, because they consider only the weight of relationship, without considering the direction of the relationship. Therefore, in order to identify specific relationships between characters, we propose a statistical method considering linguistic features, such as syntactic patterns and speech verbs in Korean. The result of our method is represented by a weighted directed graph of the relationship between the characters. Furthermore, we expect that proposed method could be applied to the relationship analysis between characters of other content like movie or TV drama.

Keywords: Data mining, Korean linguistic feature, literary fiction, relationship extraction.

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Authors: Swetha Priya Darshini Thammadi, Sateesh Kumar Pisini, Sanjay Kumar Shukla

Abstract:

Source apportionment using Dispersion model depends primarily on the quality of Emission Inventory. In the present study, a CMB receptor model has been used to identify the sources of PM_2.5, while the AERMOD dispersion model has been used to account for missing sources of PM_2.5 in the Emission Inventory. A statistical approach has been developed to quantify the missing sources not considered in the Emission Inventory. The inventory of each grid was improved by adjusting emissions based on road lengths and deficit in measured and modelled concentrations. The results showed that in CMB analyses, fugitive sources - soil and road dust - contribute significantly to ambient PM_2.5 pollution. As a result, AERMOD significantly underestimated the ambient air concentration at most locations. The revised Emission Inventory showed a significant improvement in AERMOD performance which is evident through statistical tests.

Keywords: CMB, GIS, AERMOD, PM2.5, fugitive, emission inventory.

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Authors: Shih-Ching Lo

Abstract:

Discrete choice model is the most used methodology for studying traveler-s mode choice and demand. However, to calibrate the discrete choice model needs to have plenty of questionnaire survey. In this study, an aggregative model is proposed. The historical data of passenger volumes for high speed rail and domestic civil aviation are employed to calibrate and validate the model. In this study, different models are compared so as to propose the best one. From the results, systematic equations forecast better than single equation do. Models with the external variable, which is oil price, are better than models based on closed system assumption.

Keywords: forecasting, passenger volume, dynamic competition model, external variable, oil price

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Authors: Barath Kumar, Oliver Niggemann, Juergen Jasperneite

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Model-based approaches have been applied successfully to a wide range of tasks such as specification, simulation, testing, and diagnosis. But one bottleneck often prevents the introduction of these ideas: Manual modeling is a non-trivial, time-consuming task. Automatically deriving models by observing and analyzing running systems is one possible way to amend this bottleneck. To derive a model automatically, some a-priori knowledge about the model structure–i.e. about the system–must exist. Such a model formalism would be used as follows: (i) By observing the network traffic, a model of the long-term system behavior could be generated automatically, (ii) Test vectors can be generated from the model, (iii) While the system is running, the model could be used to diagnose non-normal system behavior. The main contribution of this paper is the introduction of a model formalism called 'probabilistic regression automaton' suitable for the tasks mentioned above.

Keywords: Model-based approach, Probabilistic regression automata, Statistical models and Timed automata.

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Authors: Irwin Ma, Tony Wong, Thiagas Sankar

Abstract:

By systematically applying different engineering methods, difficult financial problems become approachable. Using a combination of theory and techniques such as wavelet transform, time series data mining, Markov chain based discrete stochastic optimization, and evolutionary algorithms, this work formulated a strategy to characterize and forecast non-linear time series. It attempted to extract typical features from the volatility data sets of S&P100 and S&P500 indices that include abrupt drops, jumps and other non-linearity. As a result, accuracy of forecasting has reached an average of over 75% surpassing any other publicly available results on the forecast of any financial index.

Keywords: Discrete stochastic optimization, genetic algorithms, genetic programming, volatility forecast

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Authors: Ilze Stokmane

Abstract:

Economic processes underway in the country directly and indirectly affect the welfare of the people and the social environment, starting with job security and having a direct impact on the qualitative and safe living environment.

The paper describes existing situation and gives analysis of the regional development policy determination and implementation in the all three Baltic countries. According statistical indicators there are differences between implementation of the regional development activities between all Baltic countries and in regions of inside each country.

It is analyzed more detail differences between regions in Latvia, Lithuania and Estonia according possibility to evaluate success of development processes in regions of the Baltic countries. The descriptive analyze of documents, statistical indicators at national level and regional level were used in the research.

Keywords: Baltic countries, city environment, regional development, urban areas.

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Authors: A. Beheshti, S. Salkhordeh, H. Amini

Abstract:

Based on statistics released by Islamic Republic of Iran Police (IRIP), from among the total 9555 motorcycle accidents that happened in 2007, 857 riders died and 11219 one got injured. If we also consider the death toll and injuries of other vehicles' accidents resulted from traffic violation by motorcycle riders, then paying attention to the motorcycle accidents seems to be very necessary. Therefore, in this study we tried to investigate the traits and issues related to production, application, and training, along with causes of motorcycle accidents from 4 perspectives of road, human, environment and vehicle and also based on statistical and geographical analysis of accident-sheets prepared by Iran Road Patrol Department (IRPD). Unfamiliarity of riders with regulations and techniques of motorcycling, disuse of safety equipments, inefficiency of roads and design of junctions for safe trafficking of motorcycles and finally the lack of sufficient control of responsible organizations are among the major causes which lead to these accidents.

Keywords: Motorcycle, Motorcycle riders, Road accidents, Statistical analysis of accidents.

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Authors: L. H. Chong, Y. Y. Chen

Abstract:

Information is increasing in volumes; companies are overloaded with information that they may lose track in getting the intended information. It is a time consuming task to scan through each of the lengthy document. A shorter version of the document which contains only the gist information is more favourable for most information seekers. Therefore, in this paper, we implement a text summarization system to produce a summary that contains gist information of oil and gas news articles. The summarization is intended to provide important information for oil and gas companies to monitor their competitor-s behaviour in enhancing them in formulating business strategies. The system integrated statistical approach with three underlying concepts: keyword occurrences, title of the news article and location of the sentence. The generated summaries were compared with human generated summaries from an oil and gas company. Precision and recall ratio are used to evaluate the accuracy of the generated summary. Based on the experimental results, the system is able to produce an effective summary with the average recall value of 83% at the compression rate of 25%.

Keywords: Information retrieval, text summarization, statistical approach.

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Authors: Hui-Min Ting, Tsair-Fwu Lee, Ming-Yuan Cho, Pei-Ju Chao, Chun-Ming Chang, Long-Chang Chen, Fu-Min Fang

Abstract:

To evaluate the ability to predict xerostomia after radiotherapy, we constructed and compared neural network and logistic regression models. In this study, 61 patients who completed a questionnaire about their quality of life (QoL) before and after a full course of radiation therapy were included. Based on this questionnaire, some statistical data about the condition of the patients’ salivary glands were obtained, and these subjects were included as the inputs of the neural network and logistic regression models in order to predict the probability of xerostomia. Seven variables were then selected from the statistical data according to Cramer’s V and point-biserial correlation values and were trained by each model to obtain the respective outputs which were 0.88 and 0.89 for AUC, 9.20 and 7.65 for SSE, and 13.7% and 19.0% for MAPE, respectively. These parameters demonstrate that both neural network and logistic regression methods are effective for predicting conditions of parotid glands.

Keywords: NPC, ANN, logistic regression, xerostomia.

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Authors: Shiann-Shiun Jeng, Chen-Wan Tsung, Hong-You Liou, Chun-Chieh Chang, Jia-Ming Chen

Abstract:

The coverage probability and range of IEEE 802.16 systems depend on different wireless scenarios. Evaluating the performance of IEEE 802.16 systems over Stanford University Interim (SUI) channels is suggested by IEEE 802.16 specifications. In order to derive an effective method for forecasting the coverage probability and range, this study uses the SUI channel model to analyze the coverage probability with Rayleigh fading for an IEEE 802.16 system. The BER of the IEEE 802.16 system is shown in the simulation results. Then, the maximum allowed path loss can be calculated and substituted into the coverage analysis. Therefore, simulation results show the coverage range with and without Rayleigh fading.

Keywords: OFDM, coverage, SUI channel, IEEE 802.16

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Authors: Seong-Bae Park, Hee-Geun Yoon

Abstract:

It is an important task in Korean-English machine translation to classify the gender of names correctly. When a sentence is composed of two or more clauses and only one subject is given as a proper noun, it is important to find the gender of the proper noun for correct translation of the sentence. This is because a singular pronoun has a gender in English while it does not in Korean. Thus, in Korean-English machine translation, the gender of a proper noun should be determined. More generally, this task can be expanded into the classification of the general Korean names. This paper proposes a statistical method for this problem. By considering a name as just a sequence of syllables, it is possible to get a statistics for each name from a collection of names. An evaluation of the proposed method yields the improvement in accuracy over the simple looking-up of the collection. While the accuracy of the looking-up method is 64.11%, that of the proposed method is 81.49%. This implies that the proposed method is more plausible for the gender classification of the Korean names.

Keywords: machine translation, natural language processing, gender of proper nouns, statistical method

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Authors: A. Gandomkar, R. Dehghani

Abstract:

Drought is natural and climate phenomenon and in fact server as a part of climate in an area and also it has significant environmental, social ,and economic consequences .drought differs from the other natural disasters from this viewpoint that it s a creeping phenomenon meaning that it progresses little and its difficult to determine the time of its onset and termination .most of the drought definitions are on based on precipitation shortage and consequently ,the shortage of water some of the activities related to the water such as agriculture In this research ,drought condition in Fars province was evacuated using SPI method within a 37 year – statistical –period(1974-2010)and maps related to the drought were prepared for each of the statistical period years. According to the results obtained from this research, the years 1974, 1976, 1975, 1982 with SPI (-1.03, 0.39, -1.05, -1.49) respectively, were the doughiest years and 1996,1997,2000 with SPI (2.49, 1.49, 1.46, 1.04) respectively, the most humid within the studying time series and the rest are in more normal conditions in the term of drought.

Keywords: Fars Province, Drought, SPI Method, Time Series

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Authors: Belkacem Laimouche

Abstract:

With the field of Artificial Intelligence (AI) experiencing exponential growth, fueled by technological advancements that pave the way for increasingly innovative and promising applications, there is an escalating need to develop rigorous methods for assessing their performance in pursuit of transparency and equity. This article proposes a metrology-inspired statistical framework for evaluating bias and explainability in AI systems. Drawing from the principles of metrology, we propose a pioneering approach, using a concrete example, to evaluate the accuracy and precision of AI models, as well as to quantify the sources of measurement uncertainty that can lead to bias in their predictions. Furthermore, we explore a statistical approach for evaluating the explainability of AI systems based on their ability to provide interpretable and transparent explanations of their predictions.

Keywords: Artificial intelligence, metrology, measurement uncertainty, prediction error, bias, machine learning algorithms, probabilistic models, inter-laboratory comparison, data analysis, data reliability, bias impact assessment, bias measurement.

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Authors: B. Q. Huang, Tarik Rashid, M-T. Kechadi

Abstract:

this paper presents a multi-context recurrent network for time series analysis. While simple recurrent network (SRN) are very popular among recurrent neural networks, they still have some shortcomings in terms of learning speed and accuracy that need to be addressed. To solve these problems, we proposed a multi-context recurrent network (MCRN) with three different learning algorithms. The performance of this network is evaluated on some real-world application such as handwriting recognition and energy load forecasting. We study the performance of this network and we compared it to a very well established SRN. The experimental results showed that MCRN is very efficient and very well suited to time series analysis and its applications.

Keywords: Gradient descent method, recurrent neural network, learning algorithms, time series, BP

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Authors: Josip Vasilj, Petar Sarajcev, Damir Jakus

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One of the major difficulties introduced with wind power penetration is the inherent uncertainty in production originating from uncertain wind conditions. This uncertainty impacts many different aspects of power system operation, especially the balancing power requirements. For this reason, in power system development planing, it is necessary to evaluate the potential uncertainty in future wind power generation. For this purpose, simulation models are required, reproducing the performance of wind power forecasts. This paper presents a wind power forecast error simulation models which are based on the stochastic process simulation. Proposed models capture the most important statistical parameters recognized in wind power forecast error time series. Furthermore, two distinct models are presented based on data availability. First model uses wind speed measurements on potential or existing wind power plant locations, while the seconds model uses statistical distribution of wind speeds.

Keywords: Wind power, Uncertainty, Stochastic process, Monte Carlo simulation.

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Authors: Jihad S. Daba, J. P. Dubois

Abstract:

Understanding the statistics of non-isotropic scattering multipath channels that fade randomly with respect to time, frequency, and space in a mobile environment is very crucial for the accurate detection of received signals in wireless and cellular communication systems. In this paper, we derive stochastic models for the probability density function (PDF) of the shift in the carrier frequency caused by the Doppler Effect on the received illuminating signal in the presence of a dominant line of sight. Our derivation is based on a generalized Clarke’s and a two-wave partially developed scattering models, where the statistical distribution of the frequency shift is shown to be consistent with the power spectral density of the Doppler shifted signal.

Keywords: Doppler shift, filtered Poisson process, generalized Clark’s model, non-isotropic scattering, partially developed scattering, Rician distribution.

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Authors: Brian A. Smith, Ronald W. McClendon, Gerrit Hoogenboom

Abstract:

The mitigation of crop loss due to damaging freezes requires accurate air temperature prediction models. An improved model for temperature prediction in Georgia was developed by including information on seasonality and modifying parameters of an existing artificial neural network model. Alternative models were compared by instantiating and training multiple networks for each model. The inclusion of up to 24 hours of prior weather information and inputs reflecting the day of year were among improvements that reduced average four-hour prediction error by 0.18°C compared to the prior model. Results strongly suggest model developers should instantiate and train multiple networks with different initial weights to establish appropriate model parameters.

Keywords: Time-series forecasting, weather modeling.

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Authors: Omowunmi E. Isafiade, Isaac O. Osunmakinde, Antoine B. Bagula

Abstract:

Robots- visual perception is a field that is gaining increasing attention from researchers. This is partly due to emerging trends in the commercial availability of 3D scanning systems or devices that produce a high information accuracy level for a variety of applications. In the history of mining, the mortality rate of mine workers has been alarming and robots exhibit a great deal of potentials to tackle safety issues in mines. However, an effective vision system is crucial to safe autonomous navigation in underground terrains. This work investigates robots- perception in underground terrains (mines and tunnels) using statistical region merging (SRM) model. SRM reconstructs the main structural components of an imagery by a simple but effective statistical analysis. An investigation is conducted on different regions of the mine, such as the shaft, stope and gallery, using publicly available mine frames, with a stream of locally captured mine images. An investigation is also conducted on a stream of underground tunnel image frames, using the XBOX Kinect 3D sensors. The Kinect sensors produce streams of red, green and blue (RGB) and depth images of 640 x 480 resolution at 30 frames per second. Integrating the depth information to drivability gives a strong cue to the analysis, which detects 3D results augmenting drivable and non-drivable regions in 2D. The results of the 2D and 3D experiment with different terrains, mines and tunnels, together with the qualitative and quantitative evaluation, reveal that a good drivable region can be detected in dynamic underground terrains.

Keywords: Drivable Region Detection, Kinect Sensor, Robots' Perception, SRM, Underground Terrains.

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Authors: Dhruvit S. Berawala, Jann R. Ursin, Obrad Slijepcevic

Abstract:

Shale gas is one of the most rapidly growing forms of natural gas. Unconventional natural gas deposits are difficult to characterize overall, but in general are often lower in resource concentration and dispersed over large areas. Moreover, gas is densely packed into the matrix through adsorption which accounts for large volume of gas reserves. Gas production from tight shale deposits are made possible by extensive and deep well fracturing which contacts large fractions of the formation. The conventional reservoir modelling and production forecasting methods, which rely on fluid-flow processes dominated by viscous forces, have proved to be very pessimistic and inaccurate. This paper presents a new approach to forecast shale gas production by detailed modeling of gas desorption, diffusion and non-linear flow mechanisms in combination with statistical representation of these processes. The representation of the model involves a cube as a porous media where free gas is present and a sphere (SiC: Sphere in Cube model) inside it where gas is adsorbed on to the kerogen or organic matter. Further, the sphere is considered consisting of many layers of adsorbed gas in an onion-like structure. With pressure decline, the gas desorbs first from the outer most layer of sphere causing decrease in its molecular concentration. The new available surface area and change in concentration triggers the diffusion of gas from kerogen. The process continues until all the gas present internally diffuses out of the kerogen, gets adsorbs onto available surface area and then desorbs into the nanopores and micro-fractures in the cube. Each SiC idealizes a gas pathway and is characterized by sphere diameter and length of the cube. The diameter allows to model gas storage, diffusion and desorption; the cube length takes into account the pathway for flow in nanopores and micro-fractures. Many of these representative but general cells of the reservoir are put together and linked to a well or hydraulic fracture. The paper quantitatively describes these processes as well as clarifies the geological conditions under which a successful shale gas production could be expected. A numerical model has been derived which is then compiled on FORTRAN to develop a simulator for the production of shale gas by considering the spheres as a source term in each of the grid blocks. By applying SiC to field data, we demonstrate that the model provides an effective way to quickly access gas production rates from shale formations. We also examine the effect of model input properties on gas production.

Keywords: Sphere in Cube Grid Approach to Modelling of Shale Gas Production Using Non-Linear Flow Mechanisms

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Authors: Kenneth M. Oba

Abstract:

Adequate management, control, and optimization of cost is an essential element for a successful construction project. A multiple linear regression optimization model was formulated to address the problem of costs associated with pile construction operations. A total of 32 PVC-reinforced concrete piles with diameter of 300 mm, 5.4 m long, were studied during the construction. The soil upon which the piles were installed was mostly silty sand, and completely submerged in water at Bonny, Nigeria. The piles are friction piles installed by boring method, using a piling auger. The volumes of soil removed, the weight of reinforcement cage installed, and volumes of fresh concrete poured into the PVC void were determined. The cost of constructing each pile based on the calculated quantities was determined. A model was derived and subjected to statistical tests using Statistical Package for the Social Sciences (SPSS) software. The model turned out to be adequate, fit, and have a high predictive accuracy with an R2 value of 0.833.

Keywords: Cost optimization modelling, multiple linear models, pile construction, regression models.

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Authors: A. I. Dounis, P. Tiropanis, D. Tseles, G. Nikolaou, G. P. Syrcos

Abstract:

The prediction of meteorological parameters at a meteorological station is an interesting and open problem. A firstorder linear dynamic model GM(1,1) is the main component of the grey system theory. The grey model requires only a few previous data points in order to make a real-time forecast. In this paper, we consider the daily average ambient temperature as a time series and the grey model GM(1,1) applied to local prediction (short-term prediction) of the temperature. In the same case study we use a fuzzy predictive model for global prediction. We conclude the paper with a comparison between local and global prediction schemes.

Keywords: Fuzzy predictive model, grey model, local andglobal prediction, meteorological forecasting, time series.

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Authors: José Peralta, Gabriela Peretti, Eduardo Romero, Carlos Marqués

Abstract:

This paper proposes a new performance characterization for the test strategy intended for second order filters denominated Transient Analysis Method (TRAM). We evaluate the ability of the addressed test strategy for detecting deviation faults under simultaneous statistical fluctuation of the non-faulty parameters. For this purpose, we use Monte Carlo simulations and a fault model that considers as faulty only one component of the filter under test while the others components adopt random values (within their tolerance band) obtained from their statistical distributions. The new data reported here show (for the filters under study) the presence of hard-to-test components and relatively low fault coverage values for small deviation faults. These results suggest that the fault coverage value obtained using only nominal values for the non-faulty components (the traditional evaluation of TRAM) seem to be a poor predictor of the test performance.

Keywords: testing, fault analysis, analog filter test, parametric faults detection.

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Authors: Joval P George, Dr. Zheng Chen, Philip Shaw

Abstract:

This paper deals with the application of Principal Component Analysis (PCA) and the Hotelling-s T2 Chart, using data collected from a drinking water treatment process. PCA is applied primarily for the dimensional reduction of the collected data. The Hotelling-s T2 control chart was used for the fault detection of the process. The data was taken from a United Utilities Multistage Water Treatment Works downloaded from an Integrated Program Management (IPM) dashboard system. The analysis of the results show that Multivariate Statistical Process Control (MSPC) techniques such as PCA, and control charts such as Hotelling-s T2, can be effectively applied for the early fault detection of continuous multivariable processes such as Drinking Water Treatment. The software package SIMCA-P was used to develop the MSPC models and Hotelling-s T2 Chart from the collected data.

Keywords: Principal component analysis, hotelling's t2 chart, multivariate statistical process control, drinking water treatment.

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Authors: Salaheddin Odeh, Ibrahim O. Adwan

Abstract:

This interdisciplinary study is an investigation to evaluate user-interfaces in business administration. The study is going to be implemented on two computerized business administration systems with two distinctive user-interfaces, so that differences between the two systems can be determined. Both systems, a commercial and a prototype developed for the purpose of this study, deal with ordering of supplies, tendering procedures, issuing purchase orders, controlling the movement of the stocks against their actual balances on the shelves and editing them on their tabulations. In the second suggested system, modern computer graphics and multimedia issues were taken into consideration to cover the drawbacks of the first system. To highlight differences between the two investigated systems regarding some chosen standard quality criteria, the study employs various statistical techniques and methods to evaluate the users- interaction with both systems. The study variables are divided into two divisions: independent representing the interfaces of the two systems, and dependent embracing efficiency, effectiveness, satisfaction, error rate etc.

Keywords: Evaluation and usability testing, software prototyping, statistical methods, user-interface design.

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