Search results for: business function.

Authors: Fayza Obied-Allah

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Customer’ needs, quality, and value creation while reducing costs through supply chain management provides challenges and opportunities for companies and researchers. In the light of these challenges, modern ideas must contribute to counter these challenges and exploit opportunities. Therefore, this paper discusses the impact of the quality cost on revenue sharing as a most important incentive to configure business networks. This paper develops the quality cost approach to align with the modern era. It develops a model to measure quality costs which might enable firms to manage revenue sharing in a supply chain. The developed model includes five categories; besides the well-known four categories (namely prevention costs, appraisal costs, internal failure costs, and external failure costs), a new category has been developed in this research as a new vision of the relationship between quality costs and innovations in industry. This new category is Recycle Cost. This paper also examines whether such quality costs in supply chains influence the revenue sharing between partners. Using the author's quality cost model, the relationship between quality costs and revenue sharing among partners is examined using a case study in an Egyptian manufacturing company which is a part of a supply chain. This paper argues that the revenue-sharing proportion allocated to supplier increases as the recycle cost of supplier increases, and the revenue-sharing proportion allocated to manufacturer increases as the prevention and appraisal costs increase, as well as the failure costs, the recycle costs of manufacturer, and the recycle costs of suppliers decrease. However, the results present surprising findings. The purposes of this study are developing quality cost approach and understanding the relationships between quality costs and revenue sharing in supply chains. Therefore, the present study contributes to theory and practice by explaining how the cost of recycling can be combined in quality cost model to better understanding the revenue sharing among partners in supply chains.

Keywords: Quality cost, Recycle cost, Revenue sharing, Supply chain.

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Authors: Mustafa Al Sukar, Azzam Sleit, Abdullatif Abu-Dalhoum, Bassam Al-Kasasbeh

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Use and abuse of drugs by teens is very common and can have dangerous consequences. The drugs contribute to physical and sexual aggression such as assault or rape. Some teenagers regularly use drugs to compensate for depression, anxiety or a lack of positive social skills. Teen resort to smoking should not be minimized because it can be "gateway drugs" for other drugs (marijuana, cocaine, hallucinogens, inhalants, and heroin). The combination of teenagers' curiosity, risk taking behavior, and social pressure make it very difficult to say no. This leads most teenagers to the questions: "Will it hurt to try once?" Nowadays, technological advances are changing our lives very rapidly and adding a lot of technologies that help us to track the risk of drug abuse such as smart phones, Wireless Sensor Networks (WSNs), Internet of Things (IoT), etc. This technique may help us to early discovery of drug abuse in order to prevent an aggravation of the influence of drugs on the abuser. In this paper, we have developed a Decision Support System (DSS) for detecting the drug abuse using Artificial Neural Network (ANN); we used a Multilayer Perceptron (MLP) feed-forward neural network in developing the system. The input layer includes 50 variables while the output layer contains one neuron which indicates whether the person is a drug addict. An iterative process is used to determine the number of hidden layers and the number of neurons in each one. We used multiple experiment models that have been completed with Log-Sigmoid transfer function. Particularly, 10-fold cross validation schemes are used to access the generalization of the proposed system. The experiment results have obtained 98.42% classification accuracy for correct diagnosis in our system. The data had been taken from 184 cases in Jordan according to a set of questions compiled from Specialists, and data have been obtained through the families of drug abusers.

Keywords: Artificial Neural Network, Decision Support System, drug abuse, drug addiction, Multilayer Perceptron.

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Authors: Mustafa M. Donma, Erkut Karasu, Burcu Ozdilek, Burhan Turgut, Birol Topcu, Burcin Nalbantoglu, Orkide Donma

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The mechanisms underlying the association between obesity and asthma may be related to a decreased immunological tolerance induced by a defective function of regulatory T cells (Tregs). The aim of this study is to establish the potential link between these diseases and CD4+, CD25+ FoxP3+ Tregs as well as T helper cells (Ths) in children. This is a prospective case control study. Obese (n:40), asthmatic (n:40), asthmatic obese (n:40) and healthy children (n:40), who don't have any acute or chronic diseases, were included in this study. Obese children were evaluated according to WHO criteria. Asthmatic patients were chosen based on GINA criteria. Parents were asked to fill up the questionnaire. Informed consent forms were taken. Blood samples were marked with CD4+, CD25+ and FoxP3+ in order to determine Tregs and Ths by flow cytometric method. Statistical analyses were performed. p≤0.05 was chosen as meaningful threshold. Tregs exhibiting anti-inflammatory nature were significantly lower in obese (0,16%; p≤0,001), asthmatic (0,25%; p≤0,01) and asthmatic obese (0,29%; p≤0,05) groups than the control group (0,38%). Ths were counted higher in asthma group than the control (p≤0,01) and obese (p≤0,001) groups. T cell immunity plays important roles in obesity and asthma pathogeneses. Decreased numbers of Tregs found in obese, asthmatic and asthmatic obese children may help to elucidate some questions in pathophysiology of these diseases. For HOMA-IR levels, any significant difference was not noted between control and obese groups, but statistically higher values were found for obese asthmatics. The values obtained in all groups were found to be below the critical cut off points. This finding has made the statistically significant difference observed between Tregs of obese, asthmatic, obese asthmatic and control groups much more valuable. These findings will be useful in diagnosis and treatment of these disorders and future studies are needed. The production and propagation of Tregs may be promising in alternative asthma and obesity treatments.

Keywords: Asthma, flow cytometry, pediatric obesity, T cells.

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Authors: Anjin Park, Sungju Yun, Jungwhan Kim, Seungk Min, Keechul Jung

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Finger spelling is an art of communicating by signs made with fingers, and has been introduced into sign language to serve as a bridge between the sign language and the verbal language. Previous approaches to finger spelling recognition are classified into two categories: glove-based and vision-based approaches. The glove-based approach is simpler and more accurate recognizing work of hand posture than vision-based, yet the interfaces require the user to wear a cumbersome and carry a load of cables that connected the device to a computer. In contrast, the vision-based approaches provide an attractive alternative to the cumbersome interface, and promise more natural and unobtrusive human-computer interaction. The vision-based approaches generally consist of two steps: hand extraction and recognition, and two steps are processed independently. This paper proposes real-time vision-based Korean finger spelling recognition system by integrating hand extraction into recognition. First, we tentatively detect a hand region using CAMShift algorithm. Then fill factor and aspect ratio estimated by width and height estimated by CAMShift are used to choose candidate from database, which can reduce the number of matching in recognition step. To recognize the finger spelling, we use DTW(dynamic time warping) based on modified chain codes, to be robust to scale and orientation variations. In this procedure, since accurate hand regions, without holes and noises, should be extracted to improve the precision, we use graph cuts algorithm that globally minimize the energy function elegantly expressed by Markov random fields (MRFs). In the experiments, the computational times are less than 130ms, and the times are not related to the number of templates of finger spellings in database, as candidate templates are selected in extraction step.

Keywords: CAMShift, DTW, Graph Cuts, MRF.

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Authors: Dmitry K. Shaytan, Georgy D. Laptev

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In our research we aimed to test a managerial approach for the fuzzy front end (FFE) of innovation by creating controlled experiment/ business case in a breakthrough innovation development. The experiment was in the sport industry and covered all aspects of the customer discovery stage from ideation to prototyping followed by patent application. In the paper we describe and analyze mile stones, tasks, management challenges, decisions made to create the break through innovation, evaluate overall managerial efficiency that was at the considered FFE stage. We set managerial outcome of the FFE stage as a valid product concept in hand. In our paper we introduce hypothetical construct “Q-factor” that helps us in the experiment to distinguish quality of FFE outcomes. The experiment simulated for entrepreneur the FFE of innovation and put on his shoulders responsibility for the outcome of valid product concept. While developing managerial approach to reach the outcome there was a decision to look on product concept from the cognitive psychology and cognitive science point of view. This view helped us to develop the profile of a person whose projection (mental representation) of a new product could optimize for a manager or entrepreneur FFE activities. In the experiment this profile was tested to develop breakthrough innovation for swimmers. Following the managerial approach the product concept was created to help swimmers to feel/sense water. The working prototype was developed to estimate the product concept validity and value added effect for customers. Based on feedback from coachers and swimmers there were strong positive effect that gave high value for customers, and for the experiment – the valid product concept being developed by proposed managerial approach for the FFE. In conclusions there is a suggestion of managerial approach that was derived from experiment.

Keywords: Concept development, concept testing, customer discovery, entrepreneurship, entrepreneurial management, idea generation, idea screening, startup management.

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Authors: Paitoon Kraipornsak

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The recent global financial problem urges government to play role in stimulating the economy due to the fact that private sector has little ability to purchase during the recession. A concerned question is whether the increased government spending crowds out private consumption and whether it helps stimulate the economy. If the government spending policy is effective; the private consumption is expected to increase and can compensate the recent extra government expense. In this study, the government spending is categorized into government consumption spending and government capital spending. The study firstly examines consumer consumption along the line with the demand function in microeconomic theory. Three categories of private consumption are used in the study. Those are food consumption, non food consumption, and services consumption. The dynamic Almost Ideal Demand System of the three categories of the private consumption is estimated using the Vector Error Correction Mechanism model. The estimated model indicates the substituting effects (negative impacts) of the government consumption spending on budget shares of private non food consumption and of the government capital spending on budget share of private food consumption, respectively. Nevertheless the result does not necessarily indicate whether the negative effects of changes in the budget shares of the non food and the food consumption means fallen total private consumption. Microeconomic consumer demand analysis clearly indicates changes in component structure of aggregate expenditure in the economy as a result of the government spending policy. The macroeconomic concept of aggregate demand comprising consumption, investment, government spending (the government consumption spending and the government capital spending), export, and import are used to estimate for their relationship using the Vector Error Correction Mechanism model. The macroeconomic study found no effect of the government capital spending on either the private consumption or the growth of GDP while the government consumption spending has negative effect on the growth of GDP. Therefore no crowding out effect of the government spending is found on the private consumption but it is ineffective and even inefficient expenditure as found reducing growth of the GDP in the context of Thailand.

Keywords: government consumption spending, governmentcapital spending, private consumption on food, non food, andservices, Vector Error Correction Mechanism, Almost Ideal DemandSystem, substitution effect, complementary effect, consumer demand, aggregate demand

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Authors: Murtuza Ali Lakhani, Michelle Marquard

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From an organizational perspective, leaders are a variation of the same talent pool in that they all score a larger than average value on the bell curve that maps leadership behaviors and characteristics, namely competence, vision, communication, confidence, cultural sensibility, stewardship, empowerment, authenticity, reinforcement, and creativity. The question that remains unanswered and essentially unresolved is how to explain the irony that leaders are so much alike yet their organizations diverge so noticeably in their ability to innovate. Leadership intersects with innovation at the point where human interactions get exceedingly complex and where certain paradoxical forces cohabit: conflict with conciliation, sovereignty with interdependence, and imagination with realism. Rather than accepting that leadership is without context, we argue that leaders are specialists of their domain and that those effective at leading for innovation are distinct within the broader pool of leaders. Keeping in view the extensive literature on leadership and innovation, we carried out a quantitative study with data collected over a five-year period involving 240 participants from across five dissimilar companies based in the United States. We found that while innovation and leadership are, in general, strongly interrelated (r = .89, p = 0.0), there are five qualities that set leaders apart on innovation. These qualities include a large radius of trust, a restless curiosity with a low need for acceptance, an honest sense of self and other, a sense for knowledge and creativity as the yin and yang of innovation, and an ability to use multiple senses in the engagement with followers. When these particular behaviors and characteristics are present in leaders, organizations out-innovate their rivals by a margin of 29.3 per cent to gain an unassailable edge in a business environment that is regularly disruptive. A strategic outcome of this study is a psychometric scale named iLeadership, proposed with the underlying evidence, limitations, and potential for leadership and innovation in organizations.c

Keywords: Innovation, leadership, ileadership, stewardship, communication, empowerment, creativity, vision, influence, emotional connection, group membership, sense of community, knowledge creation.

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Authors: Mehrangiz Rezaee, Zabih Charrahi

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In the last decade, with increasing tourism destinations and tourism growth, we are witnessing the widespread impacts of tourism on the economy, environment and society. Tourism and its related economy are now undergoing a transformation and as one of the key pillars of business economics, it plays a vital role in the world economy. Activities related to tourism and providing services appropriate to it in an area, like many economic sectors, require the necessary context on its origin. Given the importance of tourism industry and tourism potentials of Yazd province in Iran, it is necessary to use a proper procedure for prioritizing different areas for proper and efficient planning. One of the most important goals of planning is foresight and creating balanced development in different geographical areas. This process requires an accurate study of the areas and potential and actual talents, as well as evaluation and understanding of the relationship between the indicators affecting the development of the region. At the global and regional level, the development of tourist resorts and the proper distribution of tourism destinations are needed to counter environmental impacts and risks. The main objective of this study is the sustainable development of suitable tourism areas. Given that tourism activities in different territorial areas require operational zoning, this study deals with the evaluation of territorial tourism using concepts such as land use, fitness and sustainable development. It is essential to understand the structure of tourism development and the spatial development of tourism using land use patterns, spatial planning and sustainable development. Tourism spatial planning implements different approaches. However, the development of tourism as well as the spatial development of tourism is complex, since tourist activities can be carried out in different areas with different purposes. Multipurpose areas have great important for tourism because it determines the flow of tourism. Therefore, in this paper, by studying the development and determination of tourism suitability that is related to spatial development, it is possible to plan tourism spatial development by developing a model that describes the characteristics of tourism. The results of this research determine the suitability of multi-functional territorial tourism development in line with spatial planning of tourism.

Keywords: Land use change, spatial planning, sustainability, territorial tourist, Yazd.

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Authors: A. Pensiri, K. Nantaporn, P. Parichut

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Tourism is very important to the economy of many countries due to the large contribution in the areas of employment and income generation. However, the rapid growth of tourism can also be considered as one of the major uses of water user, and therefore also have a significant and detrimental impact on the environment. Guest behavior in water usage can be used to manage water in hotels for sustainable water resources management. This research presents a study of hotel guest water usage behavior at two hotels, namely Hotel A (located in Kathu district) and Hotel B (located in Muang district) in Phuket Province, Thailand, as case studies. Primary and secondary data were collected from the hotel manager through interview and questionnaires. The water flow rate was measured in-situ from each water supply device in the standard room type at each hotel, including hand washing faucets, bathroom faucets, shower and toilet flush. For the interview, the majority of respondents (n = 204 for Hotel A and n = 244 for Hotel B) were aged between 21 years and 30 years (53% for Hotel A and 65% for Hotel B) and the majority were foreign (78% in Hotel A, and 92% in Hotel B) from American, France and Austria for purposes of tourism (63% in Hotel A, and 55% in Hotel B). The data showed that water consumption ranged from 188 litres to 507 liters, and 383 litres to 415 litres per overnight guest in Hotel A and Hotel B (n = 244), respectively. These figures exceed the water efficiency benchmark set for Tropical regions by the International Tourism Partnership (ITP). It is recommended that guest water saving initiatives should be implemented at hotels. Moreover, the results showed that guests have high satisfaction for the hotels, the front office service reveal the top rates of average score of 4.35 in Hotel A and 4.20 in Hotel B, respectively, while the luxury decoration and room cleanliness exhibited the second satisfaction scored by the guests in Hotel A and B, respectively. On the basis of this information, the findings can be very useful to improve customer service satisfaction and pay attention to this particular aspect for better hotel management.

Keywords: Hotel, tourism, Phuket, water usage.

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Authors: Hoai Nam Huynh, Edouard Rivière-Lorphèvre, Olivier Verlinden

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Manufacturing technologies are becoming continuously more diversified over the years. The increasing use of robots for various applications such as assembling, painting, welding has also affected the field of machining. Machining robots can deal with larger workspaces than conventional machine-tools at a lower cost and thus represent a very promising alternative for machining applications. Furthermore, their inherent structure ensures them a great flexibility of motion to reach any location on the workpiece with the desired orientation. Nevertheless, machining robots suffer from a lack of stiffness at their joints restricting their use to applications involving low cutting forces especially finishing operations. Vibratory instabilities may also happen while machining and deteriorate the precision leading to scrap parts. Some researchers are therefore concerned with the identification of optimal parameters in robotic machining. This paper continues the development of a virtual robotic machining simulator in order to find optimized cutting parameters in terms of depth of cut or feed per tooth for example. The simulation environment combines an in-house milling routine (DyStaMill) achieving the computation of cutting forces and material removal with an in-house multibody library (EasyDyn) which is used to build a dynamic model of a 3-DOF planar robot with flexible links. The position of the robot end-effector submitted to milling forces is controlled through an inverse kinematics scheme while controlling the position of its joints separately. Each joint is actuated through a servomotor for which the transfer function has been computed in order to tune the corresponding controller. The output results feature the evolution of the cutting forces when the robot structure is deformable or not and the tracking errors of the end-effector. Illustrations of the resulting machined surfaces are also presented. The consideration of the links flexibility has highlighted an increase of the cutting forces magnitude. This proof of concept will aim to enrich the database of results in robotic machining for potential improvements in production.

Keywords: Control, machining, multibody, robotic, simulation.

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Authors: Satu Lautamäki

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This paper presents findings from a multidisciplinary course (bachelor level) implemented at Seinäjoki University of Applied Sciences, Finland. The course aims to develop innovative thinking of students, by having projects given by companies, using design thinking methods as a tool for creativity and by integrating students into multidisciplinary teams working on the given projects. The course is obligatory for all first year bachelor students across four faculties (business and culture, food and agriculture, health care and social work, and technology). The course involves around 800 students and 30 pedagogical coaches, and it is implemented as an intensive one-week course each year. The paper discusses the pedagogy, structure and coordination of the course. Also, reflections on methods for the development of creative skills are given. Experts in contemporary, global context often work in teams, which consist of people who have different areas of expertise and represent various professional backgrounds. That is why there is a strong need for new training methods where multidisciplinary approach is at the heart of learning. Creative learning takes place when different parties bring information to the discussion and learn from each other. When students in different fields are looking for professional growth for themselves and take responsibility for the professional growth of other learners, they form a mutual learning relationship with each other. Multidisciplinary team members make decisions both individually and collectively, which helps them to understand and appreciate other disciplines. Our results show that creative and multidisciplinary project learning can develop diversity of knowledge and competences, for instance, students’ cultural knowledge, teamwork and innovation competences, time management and presentation skills as well as support a student’s personal development as an expert. It is highly recommended that higher education curricula should include various studies for students from different study fields to work in multidisciplinary teams.

Keywords: Multidisciplinary learning, creative skills, innovative thinking, project-based learning.

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Authors: Cholpassorn Sitthiwarongchai, Chutikarn Sriviboon

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The two primary objectives of this research were (1)  to examine the current knowledge and actual circumstance of  agricultural workers about mangosteen product processing; and (2) to  analyze and evaluate ways to develop capacity of mangosteen  product processing. The population of this study was 15,125 people  who work in the agricultural sector, in this context, mangosteen  production, in the eastern part of Thailand that included Chantaburi  Province, Rayong Province, Trad Province and Pracheenburi  Province. The sample size based on Yamane’s calculation with 95%  reliability was therefore 392 samples. Mixed method was employed  included questionnaire and focus group discussion with  Connoisseurship Model used in order to collect quantitative and  qualitative data. Key informants were used in the focus group  including agricultural business owners, academic people in agro food  processing, local academics, local community development staff,  OTOP subcommittee, and representatives of agro processing  industry professional organizations. The study found that the  majority of the respondents agreed with a high level (in five- rating  scale) towards most of variables of knowledge management in agro  food processing. The result of the current knowledge and actual  circumstance of agricultural human resource in an arena of  mangosteen product processing revealed that mostly, the respondents  agreed at a high level to establish 7 variables. The guideline to  developing the body of knowledge in order to enhance the capacity  of the agricultural workers in mangosteen product processing was  delivered in the focus group discussion. The discussion finally  contributed to an idea to produce manuals for mangosteen product  processing methods, with 4 products chosen: (1) mangosteen soap;  (2) mangosteen juice; (3) mangosteen toffee; and (4) mangosteen  preserves or jam.

Keywords: Capacity Enhancement, Agricultural Workers, Mangosteen Product Processing.

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Authors: Philip T. Broughton, Mark P. Bettney, Isla L. Smail

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Effective treatment of ground instability is essential when managing the impacts associated with historic mining. A field trial was undertaken by the Coal Authority to investigate the geotechnical performance and potential use of composite materials comprising resin and fill or stone to safely treat surface collapses, such as crown-holes, associated with shallow mining. Test pits were loosely filled with various granular fill materials. The fill material was injected with commercially available silicate and polyurethane resin foam products. In situ and laboratory testing was undertaken to assess the geotechnical properties of the resultant composite materials. The test pits were subsequently excavated to assess resin permeation. Drilling and resin injection was easiest through clean limestone fill materials. Recycled building waste fill material proved difficult to inject with resin; this material is thus considered unsuitable for use in resin composites. Incomplete resin permeation in several of the test pits created irregular ‘blocks’ of composite. Injected resin foams significantly improve the stiffness and resistance (strength) of the un-compacted fill material. The stiffness of the treated fill material appears to be a function of the stone particle size, its associated compaction characteristics (under loose tipping) and the proportion of resin foam matrix. The type of fill material is more critical than the type of resin to the geotechnical properties of the composite materials. Resin composites can effectively support typical design imposed loads. Compared to other traditional treatment options, such as cement grouting, the use of resin composites is potentially less disruptive, particularly for sites with limited access, and thus likely to achieve significant reinstatement cost savings. The use of resin composites is considered a suitable option for the future treatment of shallow mining collapses.

Keywords: Composite material, ground improvement, mining legacy, resin.

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Authors: Sevgi Özlem Bulu, Arif Furkan Mendi, Tolga Erol, İzzet Gökhan Özbilgin

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The rapid progress of technology in today's competitive conditions has also accelerated companies' technology development activities. As a result, companies are paying more attention to R&D studies and are beginning to allocate a larger share to R&D projects. A more systematic, comprehensive, target-oriented implementation of R&D studies is crucial for the company to achieve successful results. As a consequence, Technology Roadmap (TRM) is gaining importance as a management tool. It has critical prospects for achieving medium and long term success as it contains decisions about past business, future plans, technological infrastructure. When studies on TRM are examined, projects to be placed on the roadmap are selected by many different methods. Generally preferred methods are based on multi-criteria decision making methods. Management of selected projects becomes an important point after the selection phase of the projects. At this stage, TRM are used. TRM can be created in many different ways so that each institution can prepare its own Technology Roadmap according to their strategic plan. Depending on the intended use, there can be TRM with different layers at different sizes. In the evaluation phase of the R&D projects and in the creation of the TRM, HAVELSAN, Turkey's largest defense company in the software field, carries out this process with great care and diligence. At the beginning, suggested R&D projects are evaluated by the Technology Management Board (TMB) of HAVELSAN in accordance with the company's resources, objectives, and targets. These projects are presented to the TMB periodically for evaluation within the framework of certain criteria by board members. After the necessary steps have been passed, the approved projects are added to the time-based TRM, which is composed of four layers as market, product, project and technology. The use of a four-layered roadmap provides a clearer understanding and visualization of company strategy and objectives. This study demonstrates the benefits of using TRM, four-layered Technology Roadmapping and the possibilities for the institutions in the defense industry.

Keywords: Project selection, R&D in defense industry, R&D project selection, technology roadmapping.

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Authors: Barbara Vojvodikova, Katerina Jupova, Iva Ticha

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Cities in their historical evolution have always adapted their internal structure to the needs of society (for example protective city walls during classicism era lost their defense function, became unnecessary, were demolished and gave space for new features such as roads, museums or parks). Today it is necessary to modify the internal structure of the city in order to minimize the impact of climate changes on the environment of the population. This article discusses the results of the Urban Climate model owned by VITO, which was carried out as part of a project from the European Union's Horizon grant agreement No 730004 Pan-European Urban Climate Services Climate-Fit city. The use of the model was aimed at changes in land use and land cover in cities related to urban heat islands (UHI). The task of the application was to evaluate possible land use change scenarios in connection with city requirements and ideas. Two pilot areas in the Czech Republic were selected. One is Ostrava and the other Hodonín. The paper provides a demonstration of the application of the model for various possible future development scenarios. It contains an assessment of the suitability or inappropriateness of scenarios of future development depending on the temperature increase. Cities that are preparing to reconstruct the public space are interested in eliminating proposals that would lead to an increase in temperature stress as early as in the assignment phase. If they have evaluation on the unsuitability of some type of design, they can limit it into the proposal phases. Therefore, especially in the application of models on Local level - in 1 m spatial resolution, it was necessary to show which type of proposals would create a significant temperature island in its implementation. Such a type of proposal is considered unsuitable. The model shows that the building itself can create a shady place and thus contribute to the reduction of the UHI. If it sensitively approaches the protection of existing greenery, this new construction may not pose a significant problem. More massive interventions leading to the reduction of existing greenery create a new heat island space.

Keywords: Heat islands, land use, urban climate model.

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Authors: Rodrigo T. Lourenço, Margarida Mano

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Higher Education Institutions (HEI), and other levels of Education, face important challenges. One of the most relevant one is the ability to adapt to a society that is changing over time, whilst guarantying levels of training that do not merely react to such changes. Thus, interacting with society, particularly with surrounding communities and key stakeholders, has become an essential requirement for the sustainability of these institutions. One of the formal mechanisms implemented in European educational institutions has been the design of organizational structures that include a top governance body sharing its constitution with both internal members, students and external members. Such frame holds the core mission of involving communities in the governance of educational institutions, assuming, both strategic decision-making functions, with the approval of the institutions’ strategic plans, and a supervision function, approved by activity reports. It also plays an essential role in the life of institutions by holding the responsibility of electing its top executives. In Portugal, it has been almost a decade since the publication of RJIES, the legal framework of Higher Education, such bodies being designated by General Councils. Thus, one may highlight that there has been a better understanding of the operative process of these bodies, as well as their added value to the education system. It has also been possible to analyse the extent to which their core mission has been fulfilled and to understand its growing relevance, particularly regarding the autonomy of institutions. This article aims to contribute to this theme by presenting the results of a study on the role of these bodies in the governance of Public Portuguese HEI, with a special focus on the supervisory competence of organizational performance. Through questionnaires made to board members and interviews with chairpersons of the bodies and top managers of the institutions, it was possible to conclude that there is a high concern with the connections to the external environment. However, regarding organizational performance and the role of the Council as a supervisor of that performance, the activity of the bodies has fallen short of what would be expected. Several reasons may be identified. It is important to emphasize the importance of the profile of the external members and the relationship between the organ’s standard functioning and the election of the head of the institution.

Keywords: Governance, stakeholders, supervision, organizational performance.

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Authors: Ben Khayut, Lina Fabri, Maya Avikhana

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The modern Artificial Narrow Intelligence (ANI) models cannot: a) independently, situationally, and continuously function without of human intelligence, used for retraining and reprogramming the ANI’s models, and b) think, understand, be conscious, and cognize under uncertainty and changing of the environmental objects. To eliminate these shortcomings and build a new generation of Artificial Intelligence systems, the paper proposes a Conception, Model, and Method of Computational Psycholinguistic Cognitive Situational-Fuzzy Self-Controlled Brain and Mind System (CPCSFSCBMSUU). This system uses a neural network as its computational memory, and activates functions of the perception, identification of real objects, fuzzy situational control, and forming images of these objects. These images and objects are used for modeling their psychological, linguistic, cognitive, and neural values of properties and features, the meanings of which are identified, interpreted, generated, and formed taking into account the identified subject area, using the data, information, knowledge, accumulated in the Memory. The functioning of the CPCSFSCBMSUU is carried out by its subsystems of the: fuzzy situational control of all processes, computational perception, identifying of reactions and actions, Psycholinguistic Cognitive Fuzzy Logical Inference, Decision Making, Reasoning, Systems Thinking, Planning, Awareness, Consciousness, Cognition, Intuition, and Wisdom. In doing so are performed analysis and processing of the psycholinguistic, subject, visual, signal, sound and other objects, accumulation and using the data, information and knowledge of the Memory, communication, and interaction with other computing systems, robots and humans in order of solving the joint tasks. To investigate the functional processes of the proposed system, the principles of situational control, fuzzy logic, psycholinguistics, informatics, and modern possibilities of data science were applied. The proposed self-controlled system of brain and mind is oriented on use as a plug-in in multilingual subject applications.

Keywords: Computational psycholinguistic cognitive brain and mind system, situational fuzzy control, uncertainty, AI.

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Authors: Talal Alsulaiman, Khaldoun Khashanah

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In this paper, we provided a literature survey on the artificial stock problem (ASM). The paper began by exploring the complexity of the stock market and the needs for ASM. ASM aims to investigate the link between individual behaviors (micro level) and financial market dynamics (macro level). The variety of patterns at the macro level is a function of the AFM complexity. The financial market system is a complex system where the relationship between the micro and macro level cannot be captured analytically. Computational approaches, such as simulation, are expected to comprehend this connection. Agent-based simulation is a simulation technique commonly used to build AFMs. The paper proceeds by discussing the components of the ASM. We consider the roles of behavioral finance (BF) alongside the traditionally risk-averse assumption in the construction of agent’s attributes. Also, the influence of social networks in the developing of agents interactions is addressed. Network topologies such as a small world, distance-based, and scale-free networks may be utilized to outline economic collaborations. In addition, the primary methods for developing agents learning and adaptive abilities have been summarized. These incorporated approach such as Genetic Algorithm, Genetic Programming, Artificial neural network and Reinforcement Learning. In addition, the most common statistical properties (the stylized facts) of stock that are used for calibration and validation of ASM are discussed. Besides, we have reviewed the major related previous studies and categorize the utilized approaches as a part of these studies. Finally, research directions and potential research questions are argued. The research directions of ASM may focus on the macro level by analyzing the market dynamic or on the micro level by investigating the wealth distributions of the agents.

Keywords: Artificial stock markets, agent based simulation, bounded rationality, behavioral finance, artificial neural network, interaction, scale-free networks.

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Authors: Ahmed R. Z. Baghdadi, Mona H. Gamal Eldein

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Background: With the perceived pain and poor function experienced following knee arthroplasty, patients usually feel un-satisfied. Yet, a controversy still persists on the appropriate operative technique that doesn’t affect proprioception much. Purpose: This study compared the effects of Cruciate Retaining (CR) and Posterior Stabilized (PS) total knee arthroplasty (TKA on dynamic balance, pain and functional performance following rehabilitation. Methods: Thirty patients with CRTKA (group I), thirty with PSTKA (group II) and fifteen indicated for arthroplasty but weren’t operated on yet (group III) participated in the study. The mean age was 54.53±3.44, 55.13±3.48 and 55.33±2.32 years and BMI 35.7±3.03, 35.7±1.99 and 35.73±1.03 kg/m2 for groups I, II and III respectively. The Berg Balance Scale (BBS), WOMAC pain subscale and Timed Up-and-Go (TUG) and Stair-Climbing (SC) tests were used for assessment. Assessments were conducted four weeks preand post-operatively, three, six and twelve months post-operatively with the control group being assessed at the same time intervals. The post-operative rehabilitation involved hospitalization (1st week), home-based (2nd-4th weeks), and outpatient clinic (5th-12th weeks) programs, follow-up to all groups for twelve months. Results: The Mixed design MANOVA revealed that group I had significantly lower pain scores and SC time compared with group II three, six and twelve months post-operatively. Moreover, the BBS scores increased significantly and the pain scores and TUG and SC time decreased significantly six months post-operatively compared with four weeks pre- and post-operatively and three months postoperatively in groups I and II with the opposite being true four weeks post-operatively. But no significant differences in BBS scores, pain scores and TUG and SC time between six and twelve months postoperatively in groups I and II. Interpretation/Conclusion: CRTKA is preferable to PSTKA, possibly due to the preserved human proprioceptors in the un-excised PCL.

Keywords: Dynamic Balance, Functional Performance, Knee Arthroplasty, Long-Term.

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Authors: Phusit Phukamchanoad, Chutchai Ditchareon, Suwaree Yordchim

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This research was to study on background and social and cultural context of Kamchanoad community for sustainable tourism management. All data was collected through in-depth interview with village headmen, community committees, teacher, monks, Kamchanoad forest field officers and respected senior citizen above 60 years old in the community who have lived there for more than 40 years. Altogether there were 30 participants for this research. After analyzing the data, content from interview and discussion, Kamchanoad has both high land and low land in the region as well as swamps that are very capable of freshwater animals’ conservation. Kamchanoad is also good for agriculture and animal farming. 80% of Kamchanoad’s land are forest, freshwater and rice farms. Kamchanoad was officially set up as community in 1994 as “Baan Nonmuang”. Inhabitants in Kamchanoad make a living by farming based on sufficiency economy. They have rice farm, eucalyptus farm, cassava farm and rubber tree farm. Local people in Kamchanoad still believe in the myth of Srisutto Naga. They are still religious and love to preserve their traditional way of life. In order to understand how to create successful tourism business in Kamchanoad, we have to study closely on local culture and traditions. Outstanding event in Kamchanoad is the worship of Grand Srisutto, which is on the fullmoon day of 6th month or Visakhabucha Day. Other big events are also celebration at the end of Buddhist lent, Naga firework, New Year celebration, Boon Mahachart, Songkran, Buddhist Lent, Boon Katin and Loy Kratong. Buddhism is the main religion in Kamchanoad. The promotion of tourism in Kamchanoad is expected to help spreading more income for this region. More infrastructures will be provided for local people as well as funding for youth support and people activities.

Keywords: Social and Culture Area, Tourism Management, Kamchanoad Community.

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Authors: I. Asanuma, T. Yamaguchi, J. Park, K. J. Mackin

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Fishery lights on the surface could be detected by the Day and Night Band (DNB) of the Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite (VIIRS) on the Suomi National Polar-orbiting Partnership (Suomi-NPP). The DNB covers the spectral range of 500 to 900 nm and realized a higher sensitivity. The DNB has a difficulty of identification of fishing lights from lunar lights reflected by clouds, which affects observations for the half of the month. Fishery lights and lights of the surface are identified from lunar lights reflected by clouds by a method using the DNB and the infrared band, where the detection limits are defined as a function of the brightness temperature with a difference from the maximum temperature for each level of DNB radiance and with the contrast of DNB radiance against the background radiance. Fishery boats or structures on islands could be detected by the Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) on the polar orbit satellites using the reflected microwave by the surface reflecting targets. The SAR has a difficulty of tradeoff between spatial resolution and coverage while detecting the small targets like fishery boats. A distribution of fishery boats and island activities were detected by the scan-SAR narrow mode of Radarsat-2, which covers 300 km by 300 km with various combinations of polarizations. The fishing boats were detected as a single pixel of highly scattering targets with the scan-SAR narrow mode of which spatial resolution is 30 m. As the look angle dependent scattering signals exhibits the significant differences, the standard deviations of scattered signals for each look angles were taken into account as a threshold to identify the signal from fishing boats and structures on the island from background noise. It was difficult to validate the detected targets by DNB with SAR data because of time lag of observations for 6 hours between midnight by DNB and morning or evening by SAR. The temporal changes of island activities were detected as a change of mean intensity of DNB for circular area for a certain scale of activities. The increase of DNB mean intensity was corresponding to the beginning of dredging and the change of intensity indicated the ending of reclamation and following constructions of facilities.

Keywords: Day night band, fishery, SAR, South China Sea.

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Authors: Padmanabhan Balasubramanian, C. Ardil

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In this paper, we consider the problem of logic simplification for a special class of logic functions, namely complementary Boolean functions (CBF), targeting low power implementation using static CMOS logic style. The functions are uniquely characterized by the presence of terms, where for a canonical binary 2-tuple, D(mj) ∪ D(mk) = { } and therefore, we have | D(mj) ∪ D(mk) | = 0 [19]. Similarly, D(Mj) ∪ D(Mk) = { } and hence | D(Mj) ∪ D(Mk) | = 0. Here, 'mk' and 'Mk' represent a minterm and maxterm respectively. We compare the circuits minimized with our proposed method with those corresponding to factored Reed-Muller (f-RM) form, factored Pseudo Kronecker Reed-Muller (f-PKRM) form, and factored Generalized Reed-Muller (f-GRM) form. We have opted for algebraic factorization of the Reed-Muller (RM) form and its different variants, using the factorization rules of [1], as it is simple and requires much less CPU execution time compared to Boolean factorization operations. This technique has enabled us to greatly reduce the literal count as well as the gate count needed for such RM realizations, which are generally prone to consuming more cells and subsequently more power consumption. However, this leads to a drawback in terms of the design-for-test attribute associated with the various RM forms. Though we still preserve the definition of those forms viz. realizing such functionality with only select types of logic gates (AND gate and XOR gate), the structural integrity of the logic levels is not preserved. This would consequently alter the testability properties of such circuits i.e. it may increase/decrease/maintain the same number of test input vectors needed for their exhaustive testability, subsequently affecting their generalized test vector computation. We do not consider the issue of design-for-testability here, but, instead focus on the power consumption of the final logic implementation, after realization with a conventional CMOS process technology (0.35 micron TSMC process). The quality of the resulting circuits evaluated on the basis of an established cost metric viz., power consumption, demonstrate average savings by 26.79% for the samples considered in this work, besides reduction in number of gates and input literals by 39.66% and 12.98% respectively, in comparison with other factored RM forms.

Keywords: Reed-Muller forms, Logic function, Hammingdistance, Algebraic factorization, Low power design.

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Authors: Fawzi Irshaid, Kamal Mansi

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Thyroid dysfunction is one of the most frequently reported complications of chronic blood transfusion therapy in patients with beta-thalassemia major (BTM). However, the occurrence of thyroid dysfunction and its possible association with iron overload in BTM patients is still under debate. Therefore, this study aimed to investigate the status of thyroid functions and iron overload in adolescent and young adult patients with BTM in Jordan population. Thirty six BTM patients aged 12-28 years and matched controls were included in this study. All patients have been receiving frequent blood transfusion to maintain pretransfusion hemoglobin concentration above 10 g dl-1 and deferoxamine at a dose of 45 mg kg-1 day-1 (8 h, 5-7 days/week) by subcutaneous infusion. Blood samples were drawn from patients and controls. The status of thyroid functions and iron overload was evaluated by measurements of serum free thyroxine (FT4), triiodothyronine (FT3), thyrotropin (TSH) and serum ferritin level. A number of some hematological and biochemical parameters were also measured. It was found that hematocrit, serum ferritin, hemoglobin, FT3 and zinc, copper mean values were significantly higher in the patients than in the controls (P< 0.05). On other hand, leukocyte, FT4 and TSH mean values were similar to that of the controls. In addition, our data also indicated that all of the above examined parameters were not significantly affected by the patient-s age and gender. Deferoxamine approach for removing excess iron from our BTM patient did not normalize the values of serum ferritin, copper and zinc, suggesting poor compliance with deferoxamine chelation therapy. Thus, we recommend the use of a combination of deferoxamine and deferiprone to reduce the risk of excess of iron in our patients. Furthermore, thyroid dysfunction appears to be a rare complication, because our patients showed normal mean levels for serum TSH and FT4. However, high mean levels of serum ferritin, zinc, copper might be seen as potential risk factors for initiation and development of thyroid dysfunctions and other diseases. Therefore, further studies must be carried out at yearly intervals with large sample number, to detect subclinical thyroid dysfunction cases.

Keywords: beta-thalassemia major, deferoxamine, iron overload, triiodothyronine, zinc.

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Authors: Marcelo Araujo da Nóbrega, Ariel Moura Vilas Boas

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This study aims to characterize the physicochemical aspects of the soils of southeastern Chapada Diamantina - Bahia related to the phytophysiognomies of this area, rupestrian field, small savanna (savanna fields), small dense savanna (savanna fields), savanna (Cerrado), dry thorny forest (Caatinga), dry thorny forest/savanna, scrub (Carrasco - ecotone), forest island (seasonal semi-deciduous forest - Capão) and seasonal semi-deciduous forest. To achieve the research objective, soil samples were collected in each plant formation and analyzed in the soil laboratory of ESALQ - USP in order to identify soil fertility through the determination of pH, organic matter, phosphorus, potassium, calcium, magnesium, potential acidity, sum of bases, cation exchange capacity and base saturation. The composition of soil particles was also checked; that is, the texture, step made in the terrestrial ecosystems laboratory of the Department of Ecology of USP and in the soil laboratory of ESALQ. Another important factor also studied was to show the variations in the vegetation cover in the region as a function of soil moisture in the different existing physiographic environments. Another study carried out was a comparison between the average soil moisture data with precipitation data from three locations with very different phytophysiognomies. The soils found in this part of Bahia can be classified into 5 classes, with a predominance of oxisols. All of these classes have a great diversity of physical and chemical properties, as can be seen in photographs and in particle size and fertility analyzes. The deepest soils are located in the Central Pediplano of Chapada Diamantina where the dirty field, the clean field, the executioner and the semideciduous seasonal forest (Capão) are located, and the shallower soils were found in the rupestrian field, dry thorny forest, and savanna fields, the latter located on a hillside. As for the variations in water in the region's soil, the data indicate that there were large spatial variations in humidity in both the rainy and dry periods.

Keywords: Bahia, Chapada diamantina, phytophysiognomies, soils.

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Authors: Mikael Soini, Kari Björn

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Metropolia University of Applied Sciences (MUAS) Information and Communication Technology (ICT) Degree Programme provides full-time Bachelor-level undergraduate studies. ICT Degree Programme has seven different major options; this paper focuses on Health Technology. In Health Technology, a significant curriculum change in 2014 enabled transition from fragmented curriculum including dozens of courses to a new integrated curriculum built around three 30 ECTS themes. This paper focuses especially on the second theme called Customer Oriented Software Applications. From students’ point of view, the goal of this theme is to get familiar with existing health related ICT solutions and systems, understand business around health technology, recognize social and healthcare operating principles and services, and identify customers and users and their special needs and perspectives. This also acts as a background for health related web application development. Built web application is tested, developed and evaluated with real users utilizing versatile user centred development methods. This paper presents experiences obtained from the first implementation of Customer Oriented Software Applications theme. Student feedback was gathered with two questionnaires, one in the middle of the theme and other at the end of the theme. Questionnaires had qualitative and quantitative parts. Similar questionnaire was implemented in the first theme; this paper evaluates how the theme-based integrated curriculum has progressed in Health Technology major by comparing results between theme 1 and 2. In general, students were satisfied for the implementation, timing and synchronization of the courses, and the amount of work. However there is still room for development. Student feedback and teachers’ observations have been and will be used to develop the content and operating principles of the themes and whole curriculum.

Keywords: Engineering education, integrated and theme-based curriculum, learning experience, student centred learning.

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Authors: L. R. Ferreira, R. Biscaro, C. C. Danziger, C. M. Galhardi, L. C. Biscaro, R. C. Biscaro, I. S. Vasconcelos, L. C. R. Ferreira, R. Reis, L. H. Oliveira

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Introduction: There is a worldwide trend for the employer to be aware of investing in health promotion that goes beyond occupational hygiene approaches with the implementation of a comprehensive program with integration between occupational health and safety, and social/psychosocial responsibility in the workplace. Work accommodation is a necessity in most companies as it allows the worker to return to its function respecting its physical limitations. This study had the objective to verify if the integration of health and safety in the companies, with the inclusion of the concept of TWH promoted by an occupational health service has impacted in the management of absenteeism of workers in work accommodation. Method: A retrospective and paired cohort study was used, in which the impact of the implementation of the Program for the Health/Safety Integration and Total Worker Health Concept (PHSITWHC) was evaluated using the indices of absenteeism, health attestations, days and hours of sick leave of workers that underwent job accommodation/rehabilitation. This was a cohort study and the data were collected from January to September of 2017, prior to the initiation of the integration program, and compared with the data obtained from January to September of 2018, after the implementation of the program. For the statistical analysis, the student's t-test was used, with statistically significant differences being made at p < 0.05. Results: The results showed a 35% reduction in the number of absenteeism rate in 2018 compared to the same period in 2017. There was also a significant reduction in the total numbers of days of attestations/absences (mean of 2,8) as well as days of attestations, absence and sick leaves (mean of 5,2) in 2018 data after the implementation of PHSITWHC compared to 2017 data, means of 4,3 and 25,1, respectively, prior to the program. Conclusion: It can be concluded that the inclusion of the PHSITWHC was associated with a reduction in the rate of absenteeism of workers that underwent job accommodation. It was observed that, once health and safety were approached and integrated with the inclusion of the TWH concept, it was possible to reduce absenteeism, and improve worker’s quality of life and wellness, and work accommodation management.

Keywords: Absenteeism, health/safety integration, work accommodation management, total worker health.

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Authors: Paola Lecca, Lorenzo Dematte

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Reactiondiffusion systems are mathematical models that describe how the concentration of one or more substances distributed in space changes under the influence of local chemical reactions in which the substances are converted into each other, and diffusion which causes the substances to spread out in space. The classical representation of a reaction-diffusion system is given by semi-linear parabolic partial differential equations, whose general form is ÔêétX(x, t) = DΔX(x, t), where X(x, t) is the state vector, D is the matrix of the diffusion coefficients and Δ is the Laplace operator. If the solute move in an homogeneous system in thermal equilibrium, the diffusion coefficients are constants that do not depend on the local concentration of solvent and of solutes and on local temperature of the medium. In this paper a new stochastic reaction-diffusion model in which the diffusion coefficients are function of the local concentration, viscosity and frictional forces of solvent and solute is presented. Such a model provides a more realistic description of the molecular kinetics in non-homogenoeus and highly structured media as the intra- and inter-cellular spaces. The movement of a molecule A from a region i to a region j of the space is described as a first order reaction Ai k- → Aj , where the rate constant k depends on the diffusion coefficient. Representing the diffusional motion as a chemical reaction allows to assimilate a reaction-diffusion system to a pure reaction system and to simulate it with Gillespie-inspired stochastic simulation algorithms. The stochastic time evolution of the system is given by the occurrence of diffusion events and chemical reaction events. At each time step an event (reaction or diffusion) is selected from a probability distribution of waiting times determined by the specific speed of reaction and diffusion events. Redi is the software tool, developed to implement the model of reaction-diffusion kinetics and dynamics. It is a free software, that can be downloaded from http://www.cosbi.eu. To demonstrate the validity of the new reaction-diffusion model, the simulation results of the chaperone-assisted protein folding in cytoplasm obtained with Redi are reported. This case study is redrawing the attention of the scientific community due to current interests on protein aggregation as a potential cause for neurodegenerative diseases.

Keywords: Reaction-diffusion systems, Fick's law, stochastic simulation algorithm.

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Authors: Shankar Subramanian Iyer

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The vocational education, enhanced by technology and Recognition of Prior Learning (RPL) is going to be the main ingredient of the future of education. This is coming from the various issues of the current educational system like cost, time, type of course, type of curriculum, unemployment, to name the major reasons. Most millennials like to perform and learn rather than learning how to perform. This is the essence of vocational education be it any field from cooking, painting, plumbing to modern technologies using computers. Even a more theoretical course like entrepreneurship can be taught as to be an entrepreneur and learn about its nuances. The best way to learn accountancy is actually keeping accounts for a small business or grocer and learn the ropes of accountancy and finance. The purpose of this study is to investigate the relationship between vocational skills, RPL and new technologies with future employability. This study implies that individual's knowledge and skills are essential aspects to be emphasized in future education and to give credit for prior experience for future employability. Virtual reality can be used to stimulate workplace situations for vocational learning for fields like hospitality, medical emergencies, healthcare, draughtsman ship, building inspection, quantity surveying, estimation, to name a few. All disruptions in future education, especially vocational education, are going to be technology driven with the advent of AI, ML, IoT, VR, VI etc. Vocational education not only helps institutes cut costs drastically, but allows all students to have hands-on experiences, rather than to be observers. The earlier experiential learning theory and the recent theory of knowledge and skills-based learning modified and applied to the vocational education and development of skills is the proposed contribution of this paper. Apart from secondary research study on major scholarly articles, books, primary research using interviews, questionnaire surveys have been used to validate and test the reliability of the suggested model using Partial Least Square- Structural Equation Method (PLS-SEM), the factors being assimilated using an existing literature review. Major findings have been that there exists high relationship between the vocational skills, RPL, new technology to the future employability through mediation of future employability skills.

Keywords: Vocational education, vocational skills, competencies, modern technologies, Recognition of Prior Learning, RPL.

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Authors: Elnaz Saeedi, Jamileh Abolaghasemi, Mohsen Nasiri Tousi, Saeedeh Khosravi

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Goals and Objectives: A typical analysis of survival data involves the modeling of time-to-event data, such as the time till death. A frailty model is a random effect model for time-to-event data, where the random effect has a multiplicative influence on the baseline hazard function. This article aims to investigate the use of gamma frailty model with concomitant variable in order to individualize the prognostic factors that influence the liver cirrhosis patients’ survival times. Methods: During the one-year study period (May 2008-May 2009), data have been used from the recorded information of patients with liver cirrhosis who were scheduled for liver transplantation and were followed up for at least seven years in Imam Khomeini Hospital in Iran. In order to determine the effective factors for cirrhotic patients’ survival in the presence of latent variables, the gamma frailty distribution has been applied. In this article, it was considering the parametric model, such as Exponential and Weibull distributions for survival time. Data analysis is performed using R software, and the error level of 0.05 was considered for all tests. Results: 305 patients with liver cirrhosis including 180 (59%) men and 125 (41%) women were studied. The age average of patients was 39.8 years. At the end of the study, 82 (26%) patients died, among them 48 (58%) were men and 34 (42%) women. The main cause of liver cirrhosis was found hepatitis 'B' with 23%, followed by cryptogenic with 22.6% were identified as the second factor. Generally, 7-year’s survival was 28.44 months, for dead patients and for censoring was 19.33 and 31.79 months, respectively. Using multi-parametric survival models of progressive and regressive, Exponential and Weibull models with regard to the gamma frailty distribution were fitted to the cirrhosis data. In both models, factors including, age, bilirubin serum, albumin serum, and encephalopathy had a significant effect on survival time of cirrhotic patients. Conclusion: To investigate the effective factors for the time of patients’ death with liver cirrhosis in the presence of latent variables, gamma frailty model with parametric distributions seems desirable.

Keywords: Frailty model, latent variables, liver cirrhosis, parametric distribution.

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Authors: Rajinder Singh, Ram Valluru

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Chain Ladder (CL) method, Expected Loss Ratio (ELR) method and Bornhuetter-Ferguson (BF) method, in addition to more complex transition-rate modeling, are commonly used actuarial reserving methods in general insurance. There is limited published research about their relative performance in the context of Mortgage Insurance (MI). In our experience, these traditional techniques pose unique challenges and do not provide stable claim estimates for medium to longer term liabilities. The relative strengths and weaknesses among various alternative approaches revolve around: stability in the recent loss development pattern, sufficiency and reliability of loss development data, and agreement/disagreement between reported losses to date and ultimate loss estimate. CL method results in volatile reserve estimates, especially for accident periods with little development experience. The ELR method breaks down especially when ultimate loss ratios are not stable and predictable. While the BF method provides a good tradeoff between the loss development approach (CL) and ELR, the approach generates claim development and ultimate reserves that are disconnected from the ever-to-date (ETD) development experience for some accident years that have more development experience. Further, BF is based on subjective a priori assumption. The fundamental shortcoming of these methods is their inability to model exogenous factors, like the economy, which impact various cohorts at the same chronological time but at staggered points along their life-time development. This paper proposes an alternative approach of parametrizing the loss development curve and using logistic regression to generate the ultimate loss estimate for each homogeneous group (accident year or delinquency period). The methodology was tested on an actual MI claim development dataset where various cohorts followed a sigmoidal trend, but levels varied substantially depending upon the economic and operational conditions during the development period spanning over many years. The proposed approach provides the ability to indirectly incorporate such exogenous factors and produce more stable loss forecasts for reserving purposes as compared to the traditional CL and BF methods.

Keywords: Actuarial loss reserving techniques, logistic regression, parametric function, volatility.

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