Search results for: uncertainty principle

Authors: I. Martinez-Conesa, E. Garcia-Meca, M. Barradas-Quiroz

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The objective of this study is to assess the impact on earnings management of latest two Hofstede cultural dimensions: long-term orientation and indulgence. Long-term orientation represents the alignment of a society towards the future and indulgence expresses the extent to which a society exhibits willingness, or restrain, to realise their impulses. Additionally, this paper tests if there are relevant differences by testing the moderating role of the legal tradition, Continental versus Anglo-Saxon. Our sample comprises 15 countries: Belgium, Canada, Germany, Spain, France, Great Britain, Hong Kong, India, Japan, Korea, Netherlands, Philippines, Portugal, Sweden, and Thailand, with a total of 12,936 observations from 2003 to 2013. Our results show that managers in countries with high levels of long-term orientation reduce their levels of discretionary accruals. The findings do not confirm the effect of indulgence on earnings management. In addition, our results confirm previous literature regarding the effect of individualism, noting that firms in countries with high levels of collectivism might be more inclined to use earnings discretion to protect the welfare of the collective group of firm stakeholders. Uncertainty avoidance results in downwards earnings management as well as high disclosure, suggesting that less manipulation takes place when transparency is higher. Indulgence is the cultural dimension that confronts wellbeing versus survival; dimension is formulated including happiness, the perception of live control and the importance of leisure. Indulgence shows a weak negative correlation with power distance indicating a slight tendency for more hierarchical societies to be less indulgent. Anglo-Saxon countries are a positive effect of individualism and a negative effect of masculinity, uncertainty avoidance, and disclosure. With respect to continental countries, we can see a significant and positive effect of individualism and a significant and negative effect of masculinity, long-term orientation, and indulgence. Therefore, we observe the negative effect on earnings management provoked by higher disclosure and uncertainty avoidance only happens in Anglo-Saxon countries. Meanwhile, the improvement in reporting quality motivated by higher long-term orientation and higher indulgence is dominant in Continental countries. Our results confirm that there is a moderating effect of the legal system in the association between culture and earnings management. This effect is especially relevant in the dimensions related to uncertainty avoidance, long term orientation, indulgence, and disclosure. The negative effect of long-term orientation on earnings management only happens in those countries set in continental legal systems because of the Anglo-Saxon legal systems is supported by the decisions of the courts and the traditions, so it already has long-term orientation. That does not occur in continental systems, depending mainly of contend of the law. Sensitivity analysis used with Jones modified CP model, Jones Standard model and Jones Standard CP model confirm the robustness of these results. This paper collaborates towards a better understanding on how earnings management, culture and legal systems relate to each other, and contribute to previous literature by examining the influence of the two latest Hofstede’s dimensions not previously studied in papers.

Keywords: Hofstede, long-term-orientation, earnings management, indulgence

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Authors: Amós García Montaño

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In a democracy, a public policy must be developed within the regulatory framework and considering citizen participation in its planning, design, execution, and evaluation stages, necessary factors to have both legal support and sufficient legitimacy for its operation. However, the complexity and magnitude of certain public problems results in difficulties for the generation of consensus among society members, leading to unstable and unsuccessful scenarios for the exercise of the right to citizen participation and the generation of effective and efficient public policies. This is the case of public policies against corruption, an issue that in Mexico is difficult to define and generates conflicting opinions. To provide a possible solution to this delicate reality, this paper analyzes the principle of reasonableness as a tool for identifying the basic elements that guarantee a fundamental level of the exercise of the right to citizen participation in the fight against corruption, adopting elements of human rights indicator methodologies. In this sense, the relevance of having a legal framework that establishes obligations to incorporate proactive and transversal citizen participation in the matter is observed. It is also noted the need to monitor the operation of various citizen participation mechanisms in the decision-making processes of the institutions involved in the fight and prevention of corruption, which lead to an increase in the improvement of the perception of the citizen role as a relevant actor in this field. It is concluded that the principle of reasonableness is presented as a very useful tool for the identification of basic elements that facilitate the fulfillment of human rights commitments in the field of public policies.

Keywords: anticorruption, public participation, public policies, reasonableness

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Authors: Chetra Mang, Ahmadali Tahmasebimoradi, Xavier Lorang

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Lattice structures are widely used in various applications, especially in aeronautic, aerospace, and medical applications because of their high performance properties. Thanks to advancement of the additive manufacturing technology, the lattice structures can be manufactured by different methods such as laser beam melting technology. However, the presence of geometric defects in the lattice structures is inevitable due to the manufacturing process. The geometric defects may have high impact on the mechanical strength of the structures. This work analyzes the correlation between the manufacturing parameters and the mechanical strengths of the lattice structures. To do that, two types of the lattice structures; body-centered cubic with z-struts (BCCZ) structures made of Inconel718, and body-centered cubic (BCC) structures made of Scalmalloy, are manufactured by laser melting beam machine using Taguchi design of experiment. Each structure is placed on the substrate with a specific position and orientation regarding the roller direction of deposed metal powder. The position and orientation are considered as the manufacturing parameters. The geometric defects of each beam in the lattice are characterized and used to build the geometric model in order to perform simulations. Then, the mechanical strengths are defined by the homogeneous response as Young's modulus and yield strength. The distribution of mechanical strengths is observed as a function of manufacturing parameters. The mechanical response of the BCCZ structure is stretch-dominated, i.e., the mechanical strengths are directly dependent on the strengths of the vertical beams. As the geometric defects of vertical beams are slightly changed based on their position/orientation on the manufacturing substrate, the mechanical strengths are less dispersed. The manufacturing parameters are less influenced on the mechanical strengths of the structure BCCZ. The mechanical response of the BCC structure is bending-dominated. The geometric defects of inclined beam are highly dispersed within a structure and also based on their position/orientation on the manufacturing substrate. For different position/orientation on the substrate, the mechanical responses are highly dispersed as well. This shows that the mechanical strengths are directly impacted by manufacturing parameters. In addition, this work is carried out to study the uncertainty propagation of the geometric defects on the mechanical strength of the BCC lattice structure made of Scalmalloy. To do that, we observe the distribution of mechanical strengths of the lattice according to the distribution of the geometric defects. A probability density law is determined based on a statistical hypothesis corresponding to the geometric defects of the inclined beams. The samples of inclined beams are then randomly drawn from the density law to build the lattice structure samples. The lattice samples are then used for simulation to characterize the mechanical strengths. The results reveal that the distribution of mechanical strengths of the structures with the same manufacturing parameters is less dispersed than one of the structures with different manufacturing parameters. Nevertheless, the dispersion of mechanical strengths due to the structures with the same manufacturing parameters are unneglectable.

Keywords: geometric defects, lattice structure, mechanical strength, uncertainty propagation

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Authors: Stephan Printz, Kristina Lahl, René Vossen, Sabina Jeschke

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Strategic investment decisions are characterized by high innovation potential and long-term effects on the competitiveness of enterprises. Due to the uncertainty and risks involved in this complex decision making process, the need arises for well-structured support activities. A method that considers cost and the long-term added value is the cost-benefit effectiveness estimation. One of those methods is the “profitability estimation focused on benefits – PEFB”-method developed at the Institute of Management Cybernetics at RWTH Aachen University. The method copes with the challenges associated with strategic investment decisions by integrating long-term non-monetary aspects whilst also mapping the chronological sequence of an investment within the organization’s target system. Thus, this method is characterized as a holistic approach for the evaluation of costs and benefits of an investment. This participation-oriented method was applied to business environments in many workshops. The results of the workshops are a library of more than 96 cost aspects, as well as 122 benefit aspects. These aspects are preprocessed and comparatively analyzed with regards to their alignment to a series of risk levels. For the first time, an accumulation and a distribution of cost and benefit aspects regarding their impact and probability of occurrence are given. The results give evidence that the PEFB-method combines precise measures of financial accounting with the incorporation of benefits. Finally, the results constitute the basics for using information technology and data science for decision support when applying within the PEFB-method.

Keywords: cost-benefit analysis, multi-criteria decision, profitability estimation focused on benefits, risk and uncertainty analysis

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Authors: Md. Moniruzzaman, Thirayoot Limanond

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Being the most visible indicator, the transport system of a city points out how developed the city is. Dhaka megacity holds a mixed composition of motorized and non-motorized modes of transport and the number of vehicle figure is escalating over times. And this obviously poses associated environmental costs like air pollution, noise etc. which is degrading the quality of life in the city. Eventually sustainable transport or more importantly green transport from environmental point of view has become a prime choice to the transport professionals in order to cope up the crisis. Currently the city authority is planning to execute such sustainable transport systems that could serve the pressing demand of the present and meet the future needs effectively. This study focuses on the selection and evaluation of green transportation systems among potential alternatives on a priority basis. In this paper, Fuzzy TOPSIS - a multi-criteria decision method is presented to find out the most prioritized alternative. In the first step, Twenty-one individual specific criteria for sustainability assessment are selected. In the following step, experts provide linguistic ratings to the potential alternatives with respect to the selected criteria. The approach is used to generate aggregate scores for sustainability assessment and selection of the best alternative. In the third step, a sensitivity analysis is performed to understand the influence of criteria weights on the decision making process. The key strength of fuzzy TOPSIS approach is its practical applicability having a generation of good quality solution even under uncertainty.

Keywords: green transport, multi-criteria decision approach, urban transportation system, sustainability assessment, fuzzy theory, uncertainty

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Authors: Kerdsiri Hongthai, Darunee Jongudomkarn, Rutja Phuphaibul

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In Thailand, many adults in rural areas migrate to seek employ¬ment resulting in skipped-generation family where grandparents care for grandchildren with no other adults present. This is a preliminary study using qualitative case study methods, aimed to explore the situations of older adult grandparents' experiences in skipped-generation family in North-East of Thailand. Data were collected by in-depth inter¬views with 6 grandparents living in skipped-generation families; 5 females and 1 males grandparents, aged 62-75, some of them have diabetes mellitus, hypertension, during November to December, 2017. The finding themes are: ‘Caught up in the middle’: the older adults were pleased to have grandchildren but, at the same time, acknowledge the burden that this placed on them, especially when the migrant children failed to send enough money back to support the family. ‘Getting bad health’: they reported to be fatigued and stressed due to burden of caring for their grandchildren without support. This situation can aggravate problems of poor health status and be worsening economic status of the grandparents. In some cases of deprivation, the grandparents feel that having to be the sole care providers of their grandchildren can negative adversely affect their mental status. It is important to find out in other sectors similar to Thailand and lead to more in-depth research to answer the research questions about policy and social support in skipped-generation family in the future.

Keywords: older adult grandparents, experiences, principle care giver, skipped-generation family

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Authors: Parvina Ismayilova

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Inclusion is like cultural diversity because, in the modern world, it is understood as everything that allows you to immerse yourself in the environment with the opportunity to expand your experience. In a narrow sense, inclusion is more associated with "inclusive education" and "inclusive technologies" - that is, it is a principle that allows people with disabilities to interact with the outside world. Technological progress allows people to unite, ensuring that they are seen and heard.

Keywords: diversity, disability, inclusivity, equality

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Authors: Linda Frazer

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A pluralistic methodology focuses on promoting an understanding that an alternative juridical framework for the regulation of transnational business negotiations (TBN) between private business parties is fundamentally required. This paper deals with the evolving assessment of the doctoral research of the author which demonstrated that due to insufficient juridical tools, negotiations are commonly misunderstood within the complexity of pluralistic and conflicting legal regimes. This inadequacy causes uncertainty in the enforcement of legal remedies, leaving business parties surprised. Consequently, parties cannot sufficiently anticipate when and how legal rights and obligations are created, often counting on oral or incomplete agreements which may lead to the misinterpretation of the extent of their legal rights and obligations. This uncertainty causes threats to business parties for fear of creating unintended legal obligations or, conversely, that law will not enforce intended agreements for failure to pass the tests of contractual validity. A need to find a manner to set default standards of communications and standards of conduct to monitor our evolving global trade would aid law to provide the security, predictability and foreseeability during alternative dispute resolution required by TBN parties. The conclusion of this study includes a proposal of new trade mechanisms, termed 'Bills of Negotiations' (BON) to enhance party autonomy and promote the ability for TBN parties to self-regulate within the boundaries of law. BON will be guided by a secure juridical institutionalized setting that caters to guiding communications during TBN and resolving disputes that arise along the negotiation processes on a fast track basis.

Keywords: alternative resolution disputes, ADR, good faith, good faith, juridical security, legal regulation, trade mechanisms, transnational business negotiations

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Authors: Jules Selles

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The Atlantic and Mediterranean bluefin tuna fishery have been considered as the archetype of an overfished and mismanaged fishery. This crisis has demonstrated the role of public awareness and the importance of the interactions between science and management about scientific uncertainties. This work aims at investigating the policy making process associated with a regional fisheries management organization. We propose a contextualized computer-based experimental approach, in order to explore the effects of key factors on the cooperation process in a complex straddling stock management setting. Namely, we analyze the effects of the introduction of a socio-economic tipping point and the uncertainty surrounding the estimation of the resource level. Our approach is based on a Gordon-Schaefer bio-economic model which explicitly represents the decision making process. Each participant plays the role of a stakeholder of ICCAT and represents a coalition of fishing nations involved in the fishery and decide unilaterally a harvest policy for the coming year. The context of the experiment induces the incentives for exploitation and collaboration to achieve common sustainable harvest plans at the Atlantic bluefin tuna stock scale. Our rigorous framework allows testing how stakeholders who plan the exploitation of a fish stock (a common pool resource) respond to two kinds of effects: i) the inclusion of a drastic shift in the management constraints (beyond a socio-economic tipping point) and ii) an increasing uncertainty in the scientific estimation of the resource level.

Keywords: economic experiment, fisheries management, game theory, policy making, Atlantic Bluefin tuna

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Authors: Hassan Sher

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God has made this world with all of his essences and beautified it with his countless blessings. In Islam, no doubt, beauty is a very important characteristic but also an aspect of the body and the heart. In a world where the standards of beauty seem to change from year to year according to trends and norms. Moreover, in this world, many people want to look good and feel satisfied and will be willing to go through many ways for their ideal look. likewise, several products came into use for beautifying, cleansing, and promoting attractiveness. These products include components of cosmetics, they are utilized for health and beauty purposes. There are concerns regarding the existence of harmful or ḥarām chemicals, but With the advancement in (technology), it results in the transformation of unlawful and forbidden cosmetic products into permissible several new ingredients and products. The process of transforming certain items or products from one form to another, Muslim jurists tend to use terms like Istiḥālah (transformation).Istiḥālah is an Islamic principle unknown to many Muslims. LinguisticallyIstiḥālah carries the meaning of a transformation or a change in the nature of a thing into something else.According to the religious contact, Istiḥālah signifies a turning of a matter from a state of impurity or inedibility into a matter of different nature, name, properties, and characteristics (colour, taste, and smell) (Zuhayli, 1997). This principle, which is unanimously accepted by Muslim scholars, are breaths of fresh air to Muslims suffering from the suffocation of excessive prohibition. This will allow the invention to be utilized fully. This research tends to highlight the different ideological concepts of Istiḥālah from the perspective of Islamic Shariah and jurisprudence and its application in cosmetic products. However, the study focuses on the issues related to alcohol and pig ingredients in beauty products.

Keywords: istiḥālah. harām, jurisprudence, cosmetic, pig

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Authors: I. Arockiarani

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The focus of the paper is to furnish the entropy measure for a neutrosophic set and neutrosophic soft set which is a measure of uncertainty and it permeates discourse and system. Various characterization of entropy measures are derived. Further we exemplify this concept by applying entropy in various real time decision making problems.

Keywords: entropy measure, Hausdorff distance, neutrosophic set, soft set

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Authors: Maria Luisa Nozawa Ribeiro, Maria Teresa Miceli Kerbauy

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This paper aims to present the theories of public participation in order to understand the context of the public GMO (Genetic Modified Organisms) policies in Brazil, highlighting the characteristics of its configuration and the dialog with the experts. As a controversy subject, the commercialization of GMO provoked manifestation of some popular and environmental representative groups questioning the decisions of policy makers and experts on the matter. Many aspects and consequences of the plantation and consumption of this crops emerged and the safety of this technology was questioned. Environmentalists, Civil Right's movement, representatives of rural workers, farmers and organics producers, etc. demonstrated their point of view, also sustained by some experts of medical, genetical, environmental, agronomical sciences, etc. fields. Despite this movement, the precautionary principle (risk management), implemented in 1987, suggested precaution facing new technologies and innovations in the sustainable development society. This principle influenced many legislation and regulation on GMO around the world, including Brazil, which became a reference among the world regulatory GMO systems. The Brazilian legislation ensures the citizens participation on GMO discussion, characteristic that was important to establish the connection between the subject and the participation theory. These deliberation spaces materialized in Brazil through the "Public Audiences", which are managed by the National Biosafety Technical Commission (CTNBio), the department responsible for controlling the research, production and commercialization of GMOs in Brazil.

Keywords: public engagement, public participation, science and technology studies, transgenic politics

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Authors: Sajjad Akbar, Rabia Bashir

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With the growth of the number of users, the Internet usage has evolved. Due to its key design principle, there is an incredible expansion in its size. This tremendous growth of the Internet has brought new applications (mobile video and cloud computing) as well as new user’s requirements i.e. content distribution environment, mobility, ubiquity, security and trust etc. The users are more interested in contents rather than their communicating peer nodes. The current Internet architecture is a host-centric networking approach, which is not suitable for the specific type of applications. With the growing use of multiple interactive applications, the host centric approach is considered to be less efficient as it depends on the physical location, for this, Information Centric Networking (ICN) is considered as the potential future Internet architecture. It is an approach that introduces uniquely named data as a core Internet principle. It uses the receiver oriented approach rather than sender oriented. It introduces the naming base information system at the network layer. Although ICN is considered as future Internet architecture but there are lot of criticism on it which mainly concerns that how ICN will manage the most relevant content. For this Web Content Mining(WCM) approaches can help in appropriate data management of ICN. To address this issue, this paper contributes by (i) discussing multiple ICN approaches (ii) analyzing different Web Content Mining approaches (iii) creating a new Internet architecture by merging ICN and WCM to solve the data management issues of ICN. From ICN, Content-Centric Networking (CCN) is selected for the new architecture, whereas, Agent-based approach from Web Content Mining is selected to find most appropriate data.

Keywords: agent based web content mining, content centric networking, information centric networking

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Authors: Navid Mohammadzadeh, Huy Truong-Ba, Michael Cholette

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The solar tower (ST) plant is a promising technology to exploit large-scale solar irradiation. With thermal energy storage, ST plant has the potential to shift generation to high electricity price periods. However, the size of storage limits the dispatchability of the plant, particularly when it should compete with uncertainty in forecasts of solar irradiation and electricity prices. The purpose of this study is to explore the size of storage when Rolling Horizon Control (RHC) is employed for dispatch scheduling. To this end, RHC is benchmarked against perfect knowledge (PK) forecast and two day-ahead dispatching policies. With optimisation of dispatch planning using PK policy, the optimal achievable profit for a specific size of the storage is determined. A sensitivity analysis using Monte-Carlo simulation is conducted, and the size of storage for RHC and day-ahead policies is determined with the objective of reaching the profit obtained from the PK policy. A case study is conducted for a hypothetical ST plant with thermal storage located in South Australia and intends to dispatch under two market scenarios: 1) fixed price and 2) wholesale spot price. The impact of each individual source of uncertainty on storage size is examined for January and August. The exploration of results shows that dispatching with RH controller reaches optimal achievable profit with ~15% smaller storage compared to that in day-ahead policies. The results of this study may be applied to the CSP plant design procedure.

Keywords: solar tower plant, spot market, thermal storage system, optimized dispatch planning, sensitivity analysis, Monte Carlo simulation

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Authors: Nejoud Alostad, Anup Bora, Prashant Dhote

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Kuwait Oil Company (KOC) has been producing from its major reservoirs that are well defined and highly productive and of superior reservoir quality. These reservoirs are maturing and priority is shifting towards difficult reservoir to meet future production requirements. This paper discusses the results of the detailed integrated study for one of the satellite complex field discovered in the early 1960s. Following acquisition of new 3D seismic data in 1998 and re-processing work in the year 2006, an integrated G&G study was undertaken to review Lower Cretaceous prospectivity of this reservoir. Nine wells have been drilled in the area, till date with only three wells showing hydrocarbons in two formations. The average oil density is around 300API (American Petroleum Institute), and average porosity and water saturation of the reservoir is about 23% and 26%, respectively. The area is dissected by a number of NW-SE trending faults. Structurally, the area consists of horsts and grabens bounded by these faults and hence compartmentalized. The Wara/Burgan formation consists of discrete, dirty sands with clean channel sand complexes. There is a dramatic change in Upper Wara distributary channel facies, and reservoir quality of Wara and Burgan section varies with change of facies over the area. So predicting reservoir facies and its quality out of sparse well data is a major challenge for delineating the prospective area. To characterize the reservoir of Wara/Burgan formation, an integrated workflow involving seismic, well, petro-physical, reservoir and production engineering data has been used. Porosity and water saturation models are prepared and analyzed to predict reservoir quality of Wara and Burgan 3rd sand upper reservoirs. Subsequently, boundary conditions are defined for reservoir and non-reservoir facies by integrating facies, porosity and water saturation. Based on the detailed analyses of volumetric parameters, potential volumes of stock-tank oil initially in place (STOIIP) and gas initially in place (GIIP) were documented after running several probablistic sensitivity analysis using Montecalro simulation method. Sensitivity analysis on probabilistic models of reservoir horizons, petro-physical properties, and oil-water contacts and their effect on reserve clearly shows some alteration in the reservoir geometry. All these parameters have significant effect on the oil in place. This study has helped to identify uncertainty and risks of this prospect particularly and company is planning to develop this area with drilling of new wells.

Keywords: original oil-in-place, sensitivity, uncertainty, sandstone, reservoir modeling, Monte-Carlo simulation

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Authors: Kamel Malik Bensafta, Gervasio Bensafta

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The purpose of this paper is to investigate the relationship between oil prices and socks markets. The empirical analysis in this paper is conducted within the context of Multivariate GARCH models, using a transform version of the so-called BEKK parameterization. We show that mean and uncertainty of US market are transmitted to oil market and European market. We also identify an important transmission from WTI prices to Brent Prices.

Keywords: oil volatility, stock markets, MGARCH, transmission, structural break

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Authors: Kirsi Snellman, Johannes Gartner, , Katja Upadaya

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A transition towards a future where the economy serves society so that it evolves within the safe operating space of the planet calls for fundamental changes in the way managers think, feel and act, and make decisions that relate to social and environmental issues. Sustainable decision-making in organizations are often challenging tasks characterized by trade-offs between environmental, social and financial aspects, thus often bringing forth ethical concerns. Although there have been significant developments in incorporating uncertainty into environmental decision-making and measuring constructs and dimensions in ethical behavior in organizations, the majority of sustainable decision-making models are rationalist-based. Moreover, research in psychology indicates that one’s readiness to make a decision depends on the individual’s state of mind, the feasibility of the implied change, and the compatibility of strategies and tactics of implementation. Although very informative, most of this extant research is limited in the sense that it often directs attention towards the rational instead of the emotional. Hence, little is known about the role of emotions in sustainable decision making, especially in situations where decision-makers evaluate a variety of options and use their feelings as a source of information in tackling the uncertainty. To fill this lacuna, and to embrace the uncertainty and perceived risk involved in decisions that touch upon social and environmental aspects, it is important to add emotion to the evaluation when aiming to reach the one right and good ethical decision outcome. This analysis builds on recent findings in moral psychology that associate feelings and intuitions with ethical decisions and suggests that emotions can sensitize the manager to evaluate the rightness or wrongness of alternatives if ethical concerns are present in sustainable decision making. Capturing such sensitive evaluation as triggered by intuitions, we suggest that rational justification can be complemented by using emotions as a tool to tune in to what feels right in making sustainable decisions. This analysis integrates ethical decision-making theories with recent advancements in emotion theories. It determines the conditions under which emotions play a role in sustainability decisions by contributing to a personal equilibrium in which intuition and rationality are both activated and in accord. It complements the rationalist ethics view according to which nothing fogs the mind in decision making so thoroughly as emotion, and the concept of cheater’s high that links unethical behavior with positive affect. This analysis contributes to theory with a novel theoretical model that specifies when and why managers, who are more emotional, are, in fact, more likely to make ethical decisions than those managers who are more rational. It also proposes practical advice on how emotions can convert the manager’s preferences into choices that benefit both common good and one’s own good throughout the transition towards a more sustainable future.

Keywords: emotion, ethical decision making, intuition, sustainability

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Authors: A. Guezane-Lakoud, S. Bensebaa

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In this paper, we study a boundary value problem of nonlinear fractional differential equation. Existence and positivity results of solutions are obtained.

Keywords: positive solution, fractional caputo derivative, Banach contraction principle, Avery and Peterson fixed point theorem

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Authors: Harman Jaggi, David Steinsaltz, Shripad Tuljapurkar

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Understanding the effect of fluctuations on populations is crucial in the context of increasing habitat fragmentation, climate change, and biological invasions, among others. Migration in response to environmental disturbances enables populations to escape unfavorable conditions, benefit from new environments and thereby ride out fluctuations in variable environments. Would populations disperse if there is no uncertainty? Karlin showed in 1982 that when sub-populations experience distinct but fixed growth rates at different sites, greater mixing of populations will lower the overall growth rate relative to the most favorable site. Here we ask if and when environmental variability favors migration over no-migration. Specifically, in random environments, would a small amount of migration increase the overall long-run growth rate relative to the zero migration case? We use analysis and simulations to show how long-run growth rate changes with migration rate. Our results show that when fitness (dis)advantages fluctuate over time across sites, migration may allow populations to benefit from variability. When there is one best site with highest growth rate, the effect of migration on long-run growth rate depends on the difference in expected growth between sites, scaled by the variance of the difference. When variance is large, there is a substantial probability of an inferior site experiencing higher growth rate than its average. Thus, a high variance can compensate for a difference in average growth rates between sites. Positive correlations in growth rates across sites favor less migration. With multiple sites and large fluctuations, the length of shortest cycle (excursion) from the best site (on average) matters, and we explore the interplay between excursion length, average differences between sites and the size of fluctuations. Our findings have implications for conservation biology: even when there are superior sites in a sea of poor habitats, variability and habitat quality across space may be key to determining the importance of migration.

Keywords: migration, variable-environments, random, dispersal, fluctuations, habitat-quality

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Authors: Jothilakshmy Nagammal

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This research paper deals with the different case studies, where the Form-Based Codes are adopted in general and the different implementation methods in particular are discussed to develop a method for formulating a new planning model. The organizing principle of the Form-Based Codes, the transect is used to zone the city into various context specific transects. An approach is adopted to develop the new planning model, city Specific Planning Model (CSPM), as a tool to achieve sustainability for any city in general. A case study comparison method in terms of the planning tools used, the code process adopted and the various control regulations implemented in thirty two different cities are done. The analysis shows that there are a variety of ways to implement form-based zoning concepts: Specific plans, a parallel or optional form-based code, transect-based code /smart code, required form-based standards or design guidelines. The case studies describe the positive and negative results from based zoning, Where it is implemented. From the different case studies on the method of the FBC, it is understood that the scale for formulating the Form-Based Code varies from parts of the city to the whole city. The regulating plan is prepared with the organizing principle as the transect in most of the cases. The various implementation methods adopted in these case studies for the formulation of Form-Based Codes are special districts like the Transit Oriented Development (TOD), traditional Neighbourhood Development (TND), specific plan and Street based. The implementation methods vary from mandatory, integrated and floating. To attain sustainability the research takes the approach of developing a regulating plan, using the transect as the organizing principle for the entire area of the city in general in formulating the Form-Based Codes for the selected Special Districts in the study area in specific, street based. Planning is most powerful when it is embedded in the broader context of systemic change and improvement. Systemic is best thought of as holistic, contextualized and stake holder-owned, While systematic can be thought of more as linear, generalisable, and typically top-down or expert driven. The systemic approach is a process that is based on the system theory and system design principles, which are too often ill understood by the general population and policy makers. The system theory embraces the importance of a global perspective, multiple components, interdependencies and interconnections in any system. In addition, the recognition that a change in one part of a system necessarily alters the rest of the system is a cornerstone of the system theory. The proposed regulating plan taking the transect as an organizing principle and Form-Based Codes to achieve sustainability of the city has to be a hybrid code, which is to be integrated within the existing system - A Systemic Approach with a Systematic Process. This approach of introducing a few form based zones into a conventional code could be effective in the phased replacement of an existing code. It could also be an effective way of responding to the near-term pressure of physical change in “sensitive” areas of the community. With this approach and method the new Context Specific Planning Model is created towards achieving sustainability is explained in detail this research paper.

Keywords: context based planning model, form based code, transect, systemic approach

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Authors: Ella Sèdé Maforikan

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Sustained water management requires quantitative information and the knowledge of spatiotemporal dynamics of hydrological system within the basin. This can be achieved through the research. Several studies have investigated both surface water and groundwater in Beterou catchment. However, there are few published papers on the application of the SWAT modeling in Beterou catchment. The objective of this study was to evaluate the performance of SWAT to simulate the water balance within the watershed. The inputs data consist of digital elevation model, land use maps, soil map, climatic data and discharge records. The model was calibrated and validated using the Sequential Uncertainty Fitting (SUFI2) approach. The calibrated started from 1989 to 2006 with four years warming up period (1985-1988); and validation was from 2007 to 2020. The goodness of the model was assessed using five indices, i.e., Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE), the ratio of the root means square error to the standard deviation of measured data (RSR), percent bias (PBIAS), the coefficient of determination (R²), and Kling Gupta efficiency (KGE). Results showed that SWAT model successfully simulated river flow in Beterou catchment with NSE = 0.79, R2 = 0.80 and KGE= 0.83 for the calibration process against validation process that provides NSE = 0.78, R2 = 0.78 and KGE= 0.85 using site-based streamflow data. The relative error (PBIAS) ranges from -12.2% to 3.1%. The parameters runoff curve number (CN2), Moist Bulk Density (SOL_BD), Base Flow Alpha Factor (ALPHA_BF), and the available water capacity of the soil layer (SOL_AWC) were the most sensitive parameter. The study provides further research with uncertainty analysis and recommendations for model improvement and provision of an efficient means to improve rainfall and discharges measurement data.

Keywords: watershed, water balance, SWAT modeling, Beterou

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Authors: Xin Li

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The uncertainty and the complexity of the urban environment combining with the threat of climate change are contributing factors to the vulnerability in multiple-dimensions in Chinese megacities, especially in Shanghai. The urban area occupied high valuable technological infrastructure and density buildings is under the threats of climate change and can provide insufficient ecological service to remain the trade-off on urban sustainable development. Urban ecological-based adaptation (UEbA) combines practices and theoretical work and integrates ecological services into multiple-layers of urban environment planning in order to reduce the impact of the complexity and uncertainty. To understand and to respond to the challenges in the urban level, this paper considers Shanghai as the research objective. It is necessary that its urban adaptation strategies should be reflected and contain the concept and knowledge of EbA. In this paper, we firstly use software to illustrates the visualizing patterns and trends of UEBA research in the current 10 years. Specifically, Citespace software was used for interpreting the significant hubs, landmarks points of peer-reviewed literature on the context of ecological service research in recent 10 years. Secondly, 135 evidence-based EbA literature were reviewed for categorizing the methodologies and framework of evidence-based EbA by the systematic map protocol. Finally, a conceptual framework combined with culture, economic and social components was developed in order to assess the current adaptation strategies in Shanghai. This research founds that the key to reducing urban vulnerability does not only focus on co-benefit arguments but also should pay more attention to the concept of trade-off. This research concludes that the designed framework can provide key knowledge and indicates the essential gap as a valuable tool against climate variability in the process of urban adaptation in Shanghai.

Keywords: urban ecological-based adaptation, climate change, sustainable development, climate variability

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Authors: Emma Charlene Lubaale

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The International Criminal Court (ICC) operates based on the principle of complementarity. On the basis of this principle, states enjoy the primary right to prosecute international crimes, with the ICC intervening only when a state with jurisdiction over an international crime is unable or unwilling to prosecute. To ably exercise their primary right to prosecute international crimes domestically, a number of states are taking steps to criminalise international crimes in their national laws. Significant to note, many of the laws enacted are not being applied in the prosecution of the international crimes allegedly committed. Kenya, Uganda and Sudan are some notable states where commission of international crimes is documented. All these states have recently enacted laws on international crimes. Kenya enacted the International Crimes Act in 2008, Uganda enacted the International Criminal Court Act in 2010 and in 2007, Sudan made provision for international crimes under its Armed Forces Act. However, in all these three states, the enacted national laws on international crimes have thus far not featured in any of the proceedings before these states’ courts. Instead, these states have either relied on ordinary crimes to prosecute international crimes or not prosecuted international crimes altogether. This paper underscores the limitations of the enacted laws, explaining why, even with efforts taken by these states to enact national laws on international crimes, these laws cannot be relied on to advance accountability for the international crimes. Notably, the laws in Kenya and Uganda do not have retroactive application. In Sudan, despite the 2007 reforms, the structure of military justice in Sudan has the effect of placing certain categories of individuals beyond the reach of international criminal justice. For Kenya and Uganda, it is concluded that the only benefit that flows from these enactments is reliance on them to prosecute future international crimes. For Sudan, the 2007 reforms will only have the desired impact if reforms are equally made to the structure of military justice.

Keywords: complementarity, national laws, Kenya, Sudan, Uganda, international crimes, limitations

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Authors: Mitsuo Yoshida

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A significant mercury contamination of soil/sediment was unveiled by an environmental monitoring program in a wetland along La Plata River, west to Montevideo City, Uruguay. The mercury contamination was caused by industrial wastewater discharged from a chlor-alkali plant using a mercury-cell process. The contamination level is above 60 mg/kg in soil/sediment. Most of mercury (Hg) in the environment is inorganic, but some fractions are converted by bacteria to methylmercury (MeHg), a toxic organic compound. MeHg biologically accumulates through a food-chain and become serious public health risk. In order to clarify the contaminated part for countermeasure operation, an intervention value of mercury contamination of sediment/soil was defined as 15 mg/kg (total Hg) by the authority. According to the intervention value, mercury contaminated area in the La Plata site is approximately 48,280 m² and estimated total volume of contaminated sediments/soils was around 18,750 m³. The countermeasures to contaminated zone were proposed in two stages; (i) mitigation of risks for public health and (ii) site remediation. The first stage is an installation of fens and net around the contamination zone, for mitigating risks of exposure, inhalation, and intake. The food chain among wetland-river ecosystem was also interrupted by the installation of net and fens. The state of mercury contamination in La Plata site and plan of countermeasure was disclosed to local people and the public, and consensus on setting off-limit area was successfully achieved. Mass media also contribute to share the information on the contamination site. The cost for countermeasures was borne by the industry under the polluter-pay-principle.

Keywords: chlor-alkali plant, mercury contamination, polluter pay principle, Uruguay, wetland

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Authors: R. Vasireddi, J. Kruse, M. Vakili, M. Trebbin

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Here we present a gas dynamic virtual nozzle (GDVN) based microfluidic jetting devices for spinning of nano/microfibers. The device is fabricated by soft lithography techniques and is based on the principle of a GDVN for precise three-dimensional gas focusing of the spinning solution. The nozzle device is used to produce micro/nanofibers of a perfluorinated terpolymer (THV), which were collected on an aluminum substrate for scanning electron microscopy (SEM) analysis. The influences of air pressure, polymer concentration, flow rate and nozzle geometry on the fiber properties were investigated. It was revealed that surface properties are controlled by air pressure and polymer concentration while the diameter and shape of the fibers are influenced mostly by the concentration of the polymer solution and pressure. Alterations of the nozzle geometry had a negligible effect on the fiber properties, however, the jetting stability was affected. Round and flat fibers with differing surface properties from craters, grooves to smooth surfaces could be fabricated by controlling the above-mentioned parameters. Furthermore, the formation of surface roughness was attributed to the fast evaporation rate and velocity (mis)match between the polymer solution jet and the surrounding air stream. The diameter of the fibers could be tuned from ~250 nm to ~15 µm. Because of the simplicity of the setup, the precise control of the fiber properties, access to biocompatible nanofiber fabrication and the easy scale-up of parallel channels for high throughput, this method offers significant benefits compared to existing solution-based fiber production methods.

Keywords: gas dynamic virtual nozzle (GDVN) principle, microfluidic device, spinning, uniform nanofibers

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Authors: S. Zhang, L. Zhang, X. Chen

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Due to the large uncertainty on the mechanical properties of FRP (fibre reinforced plastic), the reliability evaluation of FRP structures are currently receiving much attention in industry. However, possible statistical correlation between ply mechanical properties has been so far overlooked, and they are mostly assumed to be independent random variables. In this study, the statistical correlation between ply mechanical properties of uni-directional and plain weave composite is firstly analyzed by a combination of Monte-Carlo simulation and finite element modeling of the FRP unit cell. Large linear correlation coefficients between the in-plane mechanical properties are observed, and the correlation coefficients are heavily dependent on the uncertainty of the fibre volume ratio. It is also observed that the correlation coefficients related to Poisson’s ratio are negative while others are positive. To experimentally achieve the statistical correlation coefficients between in-plane mechanical properties of FRP, all concerned in-plane mechanical properties of the same specimen needs to be known. In-plane shear modulus of FRP is experimentally derived by the approach suggested in the ASTM standard D5379M. Tensile tests are conducted using the same specimens used for the shear test, and due to non-uniform tensile deformation a modification factor is derived by a finite element modeling. Digital image correlation is adopted to characterize the specimen non-uniform deformation. The preliminary experimental results show a good agreement with the numerical analysis on the statistical correlation. Then, failure probability of laminate plates is calculated in cases considering and not considering the statistical correlation, using the Monte-Carlo and Markov Chain Monte-Carlo methods, respectively. The results highlight the importance of accounting for the statistical correlation between ply mechanical properties to achieve accurate failure probability of laminate plates. Furthermore, it is found that for the multi-layer laminate plate, the statistical correlation between the ply elastic properties significantly affects the laminate reliability while the effect of statistical correlation between the ply strength is minimal.

Keywords: failure probability, FRP, reliability, statistical correlation

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Authors: Jean Berger, Mohamed Barkaoui

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Discrete search path planning in time-constrained uncertain environment relying upon imperfect sensors is known to be hard, and current problem-solving techniques proposed so far to compute near real-time efficient path plans are mainly bounded to provide a few move solutions. A new information-theoretic –based open-loop decision model explicitly incorporating false alarm sensor readings, to solve a single agent military logistics search-and-delivery path planning problem with anticipated feedback is presented. The decision model consists in minimizing expected entropy considering anticipated possible observation outcomes over a given time horizon. The model captures uncertainty associated with observation events for all possible scenarios. Entropy represents a measure of uncertainty about the searched target location. Feedback information resulting from possible sensor observations outcomes along the projected path plan is exploited to update anticipated unit target occupancy beliefs. For the first time, a compact belief update formulation is generalized to explicitly include false positive observation events that may occur during plan execution. A novel genetic algorithm is then proposed to efficiently solve search path planning, providing near-optimal solutions for practical realistic problem instances. Given the run-time performance of the algorithm, natural extension to a closed-loop environment to progressively integrate real visit outcomes on a rolling time horizon can be easily envisioned. Computational results show the value of the approach in comparison to alternate heuristics.

Keywords: search path planning, false alarm, search-and-delivery, entropy, genetic algorithm

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Authors: Tapan Kumar Dhar

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How well are our city forms designed to adapt to climate change and its resulting uncertainty? What urban design tools can be used to measure and improve resilience to climate change, and how would they do so? In addressing these questions, this paper considers indeterminacy, a concept originated in the resilience literature, to measure the resilience of built environments. In the realm of urban design, ‘indeterminacy’ can be referred to as built-in design capabilities of an urban system to serve different purposes which are not necessarily predetermined. An urban system, particularly that with a higher degree of indeterminacy, can enable the system to be reorganized and changed to accommodate new or unknown functions while coping with uncertainty over time. Underlying principles of this concept have long been discussed in the urban design and planning literature, including open architecture, landscape urbanism, and flexible housing. This paper argues that the concept indeterminacy holds the potential to reduce the impacts of climate change incrementally and proactively. With regard to sustainable development, both planning and climate change literature highly recommend proactive adaptation as it involves less cost, efforts, and energy than last-minute emergency or reactive actions. Nevertheless, the concept still remains isolated from resilience and climate change adaptation discourses even though the discourses advocate the incremental transformation of a system to cope with climatic uncertainty. This paper considers indeterminacy, as an urban design tool, to measure and increase resilience (and adaptive capacity) of Long Bay’s coastal settlements in Negril, Jamaica. Negril is one of the popular tourism destinations in the Caribbean highly vulnerable to sea-level rise and its associated impacts. This paper employs empirical information obtained from direct observation and informal interviews with local people. While testing the tool, this paper deploys an urban morphology study, which includes land use patterns and the physical characteristics of urban form, including street networks, block patterns, and building footprints. The results reveal that most resorts in Long Bay are designed for pre-determined purposes and offer a little potential to use differently if needed. Additionally, Negril’s street networks are found to be rigid and have limited accessibility to different points of interest. This rigidity can expose the entire infrastructure further to extreme climatic events and also impedes recovery actions after a disaster. However, Long Bay still has room for future resilient developments in other relatively less vulnerable areas. In adapting to climate change, indeterminacy can be reached through design that achieves a balance between the degree of vulnerability and the degree of indeterminacy: the more vulnerable a place is, the more indeterminacy is useful. This paper concludes with a set of urban design typologies to increase the resilience of coastal settlements.

Keywords: climate change adaptation, resilience, sea-level rise, urban form

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Authors: Badli Shah Mohd Yusoff, Khairur Rijal Jamaludin, Rozetta Dollah

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The emerging of reverse logistics and product recovery management is an important concept in reconciling economic and environmental objectives through recapturing values of the end of life product returns. End of life products contains valuable modules, parts, residues and materials that can create value if recovered efficiently. The main objective of this study is to explore and develop a model to recover as much of the economic value as reasonably possible to find the optimality of return acquisition and sorting to meet demand and maximize profits over time. In this study, the benefits that can be obtained for remanufacturer is to develop demand forecasting of used products in the future with uncertainty of returns and quality of products. Formulated based on a generic disassembly tree, the proposed model focused on three reverse logistics activity, namely refurbish, remanufacture and disposal incorporating all plausible means quality levels of the returns. While stricter sorting policy, constitute to the decrease amount of products to be refurbished or remanufactured and increases the level of discarded products. Numerical experiments carried out to investigate the characteristics and behaviour of the proposed model with mathematical programming model using Lingo 16.0 for medium-term planning of return acquisition, disassembly (refurbish or remanufacture) and disposal activities. Moreover, the model seeks an analysis a number of decisions relating to trade off management system to maximize revenue from the collection of use products reverse logistics services through refurbish and remanufacture recovery options. The results showed that full utilization in the sorting process leads the system to obtain less quantity from acquisition with minimal overall cost. Further, sensitivity analysis provides a range of possible scenarios to consider in optimizing the overall cost of refurbished and remanufactured products.

Keywords: core acquisition, end of life, reverse logistics, quality uncertainty

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Authors: Vickie Knox

Abstract:

Since the ‘urgent humanitarian crisis’ of the arrival of tens of thousands of Central American minors at the Mexico-US border in early 2014, the USA has increasingly externalised migration controls to Mexico. Although the resulting policy ‘Plan Frontera Sur’ claimed to protect migrants’ human rights, it has manifested as harshly delivered in-country controls and an alarming increase in deportations, particularly of minors. This is of particular concern given the ongoing situation of forced migration caused by criminal violence in Central America because these deportations do not all comply with Mexico’s international obligations and with its own legal framework for international protection that allows inter alia verbal asylum claims and grants minors additional protection against deportation. Notably, the volume of deportations, the speed with which they are carried out and the lack of adequate screening indicate non-compliance with the principle of non-refoulement and the right to claim asylum or other forms of protection. Based on qualitative data gathered in fieldwork in 2015 and quantitative data covering the period 2014-2016, this research details three types of adverse outcome resulting from these externalised controls: human rights violations perpetrated in order to deliver the policy–namely, deportations that may not comply with the principle of non-refoulement or the protection of minors; human rights violations perpetrated in the execution of policy–such as violations by state actors during apprehension and detention; and adverse consequences of the policy – such as increased risk during transit. This research has particular resonance as the Trump era brings tighter enforcement in the region, and has broader relevance for the study of externalisation tools on a global level.

Keywords: deportation, externalisation, forced migration, non-refoulement

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