Search results for: uncertainty avoidance

Authors: Amr Sadek, Abdelrahaman Al-Qahtany, Turkey Salem Al-Qahtany

Abstract:

In this study, a backpropagation artificial neural network (ANN) model has been used to predict the cooling and heating capacities of air conditioners (AC) under different conditions. Sufficiently large measurement results were obtained from the national energy-efficiency laboratories in Saudi Arabia and were used for the learning process of the ANN model. The parameters affecting the performance of the AC, including temperature, humidity level, specific heat enthalpy indoors and outdoors, and the air volume flow rate of indoor units, have been considered. These parameters were used as inputs for the ANN model, while the cooling and heating capacity values were set as the targets. A backpropagation ANN model with two hidden layers and one output layer could successfully correlate the input parameters with the targets. The characteristics of the ANN model including the input-processing, transfer, neurons-distance, topology, and training functions have been discussed. The performance of the ANN model was monitored over the training epochs and assessed using the mean squared error function. The model was then used to predict the performance of the AC under conditions that were not included in the measurement results. The optimum performance of the AC was also predicted under the different environmental conditions in Saudi Arabia. The uncertainty of the ANN model predictions has been evaluated taking into account the randomness of the data and lack of learning.

Keywords: artificial neural network, uncertainty of model predictions, efficiency of air conditioners, cooling and heating capacities

Procedia PDF Downloads 42

Authors: Alissa Lefebre

Abstract:

It might seem intuitive to hope for a fast decision on the patent grant. After all, a granted patent provides you with a monopoly position, which allows you to obstruct others from using your technology. However, this does not take into account the strategic advantages one can obtain from keeping their patent applications pending. First, you have the financial advantage of postponing certain fees, although many applicants would probably agree that this is not the main benefit. As the scope of the patent protection is only decided upon at the grant, the pendency period introduces uncertainty amongst rivals. This uncertainty entails not knowing whether the patent will actually get granted and what the scope of protection will be. Consequently, rivals can only depend upon limited and uncertain information when deciding what technology is worth pursuing. One way to keep patent applications pending, is the use of divisional applications. These applicants can be filed out of a parent application as long as that parent application is still pending. This allows the applicant to pursue (part of) the content of the parent application in another application, as the divisional application cannot exceed the scope of the parent application. In a fast-moving and complex market such as the tele- and digital communications, it might allow applicants to obtain an actual monopoly position as competitors are discouraged to pursue a certain technology. Nevertheless, this practice also has downsides to it. First of all, it has an impact on the workload of the examiners at the patent office. As the number of patent filings have been increasing over the last decades, using strategies that increase this number even more, is not desirable from the patent examiners point of view. Secondly, a pending patent does not provide you with the protection of a granted patent, thus not only create uncertainty for the rivals, but also for the applicant. Consequently, the European patent office (EPO) has come up with a “raising the bar initiative” in which they have decided to tackle the strategic use of divisional applications. Over the past years, two rules have been implemented. The first rule in 2010 introduced a time limit, upon which divisional applications could only be filed within a 24-month limit after the first communication with the patent office. However, after carrying-out a user feedback survey, the EPO abolished the rule again in 2014 and replaced it by a fee mechanism. The fee mechanism is still in place today, which might be an indication of a better result compared to the first rule change. This study tests the impact of these rules on the strategic use of divisional applications in the tele- and digital communication industry and provides empirical evidence on their success. Upon using three different survival models, we find overall evidence that divisional applications prolong the pendency time and that only the second rule is able to tackle the strategic patenting and thus decrease the pendency time.

Keywords: divisional applications, regulatory changes, strategic patenting, EPO

Procedia PDF Downloads 97

Authors: Zhuang Guo

Abstract:

In the field of GaN-based resonant tunneling diodes (RTDs) simulations, the traditional Tsu-Esaki formalism failed to predict the values of peak currents and peak voltages in the simulated current-voltage(J-V) characteristics. The main reason is that due to the strong internal polarization fields, two-dimensional electron gas(2DEG) accumulates at emitters, resulting in 2D-2D resonant tunneling currents, which become the dominant parts of the total J-V characteristics. By comparison, based on the 3D-2D resonant tunneling mechanism, the traditional Tsu-Esaki formalism cannot predict the J-V characteristics correctly. To overcome this shortcoming, we develop a new analytical model for the 2D-2D resonant tunneling currents generated in GaN-based RTDs. Compared with Tsu-Esaki formalism, the new model has made the following modifications: Firstly, considering the Heisenberg uncertainty, the new model corrects the expression of the density of states around the 2DEG eigenenergy levels at emitters so that it could predict the half width at half-maximum(HWHM) of resonant tunneling currents; Secondly, taking into account the effect of bias on wave vectors on the collectors, the new model modifies the expression of the transmission coefficients which could help to get the values of peak currents closer to the experiment data compared with Tsu-Esaki formalism. The new analytical model successfully predicts the J-V characteristics of GaN-based RTDs, and it also reveals more detailed mechanisms of resonant tunneling happened in GaN-based RTDs, which helps to design and fabricate high-performance GaN RTDs.

Keywords: GaN-based resonant tunneling diodes, tsu-esaki formalism, 2D-2D resonant tunneling, heisenberg uncertainty

Procedia PDF Downloads 53

Authors: Hadi Gholizadeh, Ali Tajdin

Abstract:

To have effective production planning, it is necessary to control the quality of processes. This paper aims at improving the performance of the disposable essentials process using statistical quality control and goal programming in a vague environment. That is expressed uncertainty because there is always a measurement error in the real world. Therefore, in this study, the conditions are examined in a vague environment that is a distance-based environment. The disposable essentials process in Kach Company was studied. Statistical control tools were used to characterize the existing process for four factor responses including the average of disposable glasses’ weights, heights, crater diameters, and volumes. Goal programming was then utilized to find the combination of optimal factors setting in a vague environment which is measured to apply uncertainty of the initial information when some of the parameters of the models are vague; also, the fuzzy regression model is used to predict the responses of the four described factors. Optimization results show that the process capability index values for disposable glasses’ average of weights, heights, crater diameters and volumes were improved. Such increasing the quality of the products and reducing the waste, which will reduce the cost of the finished product, and ultimately will bring customer satisfaction, and this satisfaction, will mean increased sales.

Keywords: goal programming, quality control, vague environment, disposable glasses’ optimization, fuzzy regression

Procedia PDF Downloads 203

Authors: Hamdi Amroun, Yacine Benziani, Mehdi Ammi

Abstract:

In this paper, we propose an approach of detecting the behavior of the viewers of a TV program in a non-controlled environment. The experiment we propose is based on the use of three types of connected objects (smartphone, smart watch, and a connected remote control). 23 participants were observed while watching their TV programs during three phases: before, during and after watching a TV program. Their behaviors were detected using an approach based on The Dempster Shafer Theory (DST) in two phases. The first phase is to approximate dynamically the mass functions using an approach based on the correlation coefficient. The second phase is to calculate the approximate mass functions. To approximate the mass functions, two approaches have been tested: the first approach was to divide each features data space into cells; each one has a specific probability distribution over the behaviors. The probability distributions were computed statistically (estimated by empirical distribution). The second approach was to predict the TV-viewing behaviors through the use of classifiers algorithms and add uncertainty to the prediction based on the uncertainty of the model. Results showed that mixing the fusion rule with the computation of the initial approximate mass functions using a classifier led to an overall of 96%, 95% and 96% success rate for the first, second and third TV-viewing phase respectively. The results were also compared to those found in the literature. This study aims to anticipate certain actions in order to maintain the attention of TV viewers towards the proposed TV programs with usual connected objects, taking into account the various uncertainties that can be generated.

Keywords: Iot, TV-viewing behaviors identification, automatic classification, unconstrained environment

Procedia PDF Downloads 197

Authors: Nadezhda Kvatashidze

Abstract:

The International Accounting Standards Board updated the conceptual framework for financial reporting. The main reason behind it is to resolve the tasks of the accounting, which are caused by the market development and business-transactions of a new economic content. Also, the investors call for higher transparency of information and responsibility for the results in order to make a more accurate risk assessment and forecast. All these make it necessary to further develop the conceptual framework for financial reporting so that the users get useful information. The market development and certain shortcomings of the conceptual framework revealed in practice require its reconsideration and finding new solutions. Some issues and concepts, such as disclosure and supply of information, its qualitative characteristics, assessment, and measurement uncertainty had to be supplemented and perfected. The criteria of recognition of certain elements (assets and liabilities) of reporting had to be updated, too and all this is set out in the updated edition of the conceptual framework for financial reporting, a comprehensive collection of concepts underlying preparation of the financial statement. The main objective of conceptual framework revision is to improve financial reporting and development of clear concepts package. This will support International Accounting Standards Board (IASB) to set common “Approach & Reflection” for similar transactions on the basis of mutually accepted concepts. As a result, companies will be able to develop coherent accounting policies for those transactions or events that are occurred from particular deals to which no standard is used or when standard allows choice of accounting policy.

Keywords: conceptual framework, measurement basis, measurement uncertainty, neutrality, prudence, stewardship

Procedia PDF Downloads 103

Authors: Nebojša Janićijević

Abstract:

At the end of 1970s, Dutch researcher Geert Hofstede, had conducted an enormous empirical research on the differences between national cultures. In his huge research, he had identified four dimensions of national culture according to which national cultures differ and determined the index for every dimension of national culture for each country that took part in his research. The index showed a country’s position on the continuum between the two extreme poles of the cultural dimensions. Since more than 40 years have passed since Hofstede's research, there is a doubt that, due to the changes in national cultures during that period, they are no longer a good basis for research. The aim of this research is to check the validity of Hofstee's indices of national culture The empirical study conducted in the branches of a multinational company in Serbia, France, the Netherlands and Denmark aimed to determine whether Hofstede’s measures of national culture dimensions are still valid. The sample consisted of 155 employees of one multinational company, where 40 employees came from three countries and 35 employees were from Serbia. The questionnaire that analyzed the positions of national cultures according to the Hofstede’s four dimensions was formulated on the basis of the initial Hofstede’s questionnaire, but it was much shorter and significantly simplified comparing to the original questionnaire. Such instrument had already been used in earlier researches. A statistical analysis of the obtained questionnaire results was done by a simple calculation of the frequency of the provided answers. Due to the limitations in methodology, sample size, instrument, and applied statistical methods, the aim of the study was not to explicitly test the accuracy Hofstede’s indexes but to enlighten the general position of the four observed countries in national culture dimensions and their mutual relations. The study results have indicated that the position of the four observed national cultures (Serbia, France, the Netherlands and Denmark) is precisely the same in three out of four dimensions as Hofstede had described in his research. Furthermore, the differences between national cultures and the relative relations between their positions in three dimensions of national culture correspond to Hofstede’s results. The only deviation from Hofstede’s results is concentrated around the masculinity–femininity dimension. In addition, the study revealed that the degree of power distance is a determinant when choosing leadership style. It has been found that national cultures with high power distance, like Serbia and France, favor one of the two authoritative leadership styles. On the other hand, countries with low power distance, such as the Netherlands and Denmark, prefer one of the forms of democratic leadership styles. This confirms Hofstede’s premises about the impact of power distance on leadership style. The key contribution of the study is that Hofstede’s national culture indexes are still a reliable tool for measuring the positions of countries in national culture dimensions, and they can be applied in the cross-cultural research in management. That was at least the case with four observed countries: Serbia, France, the Netherlands, and Denmark.

Keywords: national culture, leadership styles, power distance, collectivism, masculinity, uncertainty avoidance

Procedia PDF Downloads 39

Authors: Byeongcheol Kang, Junyi Kim, Hyungsik Jung, Hyungjun Yang, Jaewoo An, Jonggeun Choe

Abstract:

It is important to figure out reservoir properties for better production management. Due to the limited information, there are geological uncertainties on very heterogeneous or channel reservoir. One of the solutions is to generate multiple equi-probable realizations using geostatistical methods. However, some models have wrong properties, which need to be excluded for simulation efficiency and reliability. We propose a novel method of model selection scheme, based on distance-based clustering for reliable application of production optimization algorithm. Distance is defined as a degree of dissimilarity between the data. We calculate Hausdorff distance to classify the models based on their similarity. Hausdorff distance is useful for shape matching of the reservoir models. We use multi-dimensional scaling (MDS) to describe the models on two dimensional space and group them by K-means clustering. Rather than simulating all models, we choose one representative model from each cluster and find out the best model, which has the similar production rates with the true values. From the process, we can select good reservoir models near the best model with high confidence. We make 100 channel reservoir models using single normal equation simulation (SNESIM). Since oil and gas prefer to flow through the sand facies, it is critical to characterize pattern and connectivity of the channels in the reservoir. After calculating Hausdorff distances and projecting the models by MDS, we can see that the models assemble depending on their channel patterns. These channel distributions affect operation controls of each production well so that the model selection scheme improves management optimization process. We use one of useful global search algorithms, particle swarm optimization (PSO), for our production optimization. PSO is good to find global optimum of objective function, but it takes too much time due to its usage of many particles and iterations. In addition, if we use multiple reservoir models, the simulation time for PSO will be soared. By using the proposed method, we can select good and reliable models that already matches production data. Considering geological uncertainty of the reservoir, we can get well-optimized production controls for maximum net present value. The proposed method shows one of novel solutions to select good cases among the various probabilities. The model selection schemes can be applied to not only production optimization but also history matching or other ensemble-based methods for efficient simulations.

Keywords: distance-based clustering, geological uncertainty, particle swarm optimization (PSO), production optimization

Procedia PDF Downloads 113

Authors: Dharshini M., Hema N. S.

Abstract:

The project for the production of aniline is done by providing 295.46 tons per day of nitrobenzene as feed. The material and energy balance calculations for the different equipment like distillation column, heat exchangers, reactor and mixer are carried out with simulation via DWSIM. The conversion of nitrobenzene to aniline by hydrogenation process is considered to be 96% and the total production of the plant was found to be 215 TPD. The cost estimation of the process is carried out to estimate the feasibility of the plant. The net profit and percentage return of investment is estimated to be ₹27 crores and 24.6%. The payback period was estimated to be 4.05 years and the unit production cost is ₹113/kg. A techno-economic analysis was performed for the production of aniline; the result includes economic analysis and sensitivity analysis of critical factors. From economic analysis, larger the plant scale increases the total capital investment and annual operating cost, even though the unit production cost decreases. Uncertainty analysis was performed to predict the influence of economic factors on profitability and the scenario analysis is one way to quantify uncertainty. In scenario analysis the best-case scenario and the worst-case scenario are compared with the base case scenario. The best-case scenario was found at a feed rate of 120 kmol/hr with a unit production cost of ₹112.05/kg and the worst-case scenario was found at a feed rate of 60 kmol/hr with a unit production cost of ₹115.9/kg. The base case is closely related to the best case by 99.2% in terms of unit production cost. since the unit production cost is less and the profitability is more with less payback time, it is feasible to construct a plant at this capacity.

Keywords: aniline, nitrobenzene, economic analysis, unit production cost

Procedia PDF Downloads 78

Authors: Maharani Yulisti, Amin Mugera, James Fogarty

Abstract:

Food safety standards have received significant attention in the fisheries global market due to health issues, free trade agreements, and increasing aquaculture production. Vertical coordination throughout the supply chain of fish producing and exporting countries is needed to meet food safety demands imposed by importing countries. However, the complexities of the supply chain governance structures and difficulties in standard implementation can generate safety uncertainty and high transaction costs. Using a Transaction Cost Economics framework, this paper examines the alignment between food safety standards and the governance structures in the shrimp supply chain in Indonesia. We find the supply chain is organized closer to the hierarchy-like governance structure where private standard (organic standard) are implemented and more towards a market-like governance structure where public standard (IndoGAP certification) are more prevalent. To verify the statements, two cases are examined from Sidoarjo district as a centre of shrimp production in Indonesia. The results show that public baseline FSS (Food Safety Standards) need additional mechanism to achieve a coordinated chain-wide response because uncertainty, asset specificity, and performance measurement problems are high in this chain. Organic standard as private chain-wide FSS is more efficient because it has been achieved by hierarchical-like type of governance structure.

Keywords: governance structure, shrimp value chain, food safety standards, transaction costs economics

Procedia PDF Downloads 348

Authors: Sfiso Radebe

Abstract:

The design models dealing with flawless composite structures are in abundance, where the mechanical properties of composite structures are assumed to be known a priori. However, if the worst case scenario is assumed, where material defects combined with processing anomalies in composite structures are expected, a different solution is attained. Furthermore, if the system being designed combines in series hybrid elements, individually affected by material constant variations, it implies that a different approach needs to be taken. In the body of literature, there is a compendium of research that investigates different modes of failure affecting hybrid metal-composite structures. It covers areas pertaining to the failure of the hybrid joints, structural deformation, transverse displacement, the suppression of vibration and noise. In the present study a system employing a combination of two or more hybrid power transmitting elements will be explored for the least favourable dynamic loads as well as weight minimization, subject to uncertain material properties. Elastic constants are assumed to be uncertain-but-bounded quantities varying slightly around their nominal values where the solution is determined using convex models of uncertainty. Convex analysis of the problem leads to the computation of the least favourable solution and ultimately to a robust design. This approach contrasts with a deterministic analysis where the average values of elastic constants are employed in the calculations, neglecting the variations in the material properties.

Keywords: convex modelling, hybrid, metal-composite, robust design

Procedia PDF Downloads 184

Authors: Keisuke Takahata, Hiroshi Suetsugu

Abstract:

Forest height is an important parameter for forest biomass estimation, and precise elevation data is essential for accurate forest height estimation. There are several globally or nationally available digital elevation models (DEMs) like SRTM and ASTER. However, its accuracy is reported to be low particularly in mountainous areas where there are closed canopy or steep slope. Recently, space-borne LiDAR, such as the Global Ecosystem Dynamics Investigation (GEDI), have started to provide sparse but accurate ground elevation and canopy height estimates. Several studies have reported the high degree of accuracy in their elevation products on their exact footprints, while it is not clear how this sparse information can be used for wider area. In this study, we developed a digital terrain model correction algorithm by spatially interpolating the difference between existing DEMs and GEDI elevation products by using Gaussian Process (GP) regression model. The result shows that our GP-based methodology can reduce the mean bias of the elevation data from 3.7m to 0.3m when we use airborne LiDAR-derived elevation information as ground truth. Our algorithm is also capable of quantifying the elevation data uncertainty, which is critical requirement for biomass inventory. Upcoming satellite-LiDAR missions, like MOLI (Multi-footprint Observation Lidar and Imager), are expected to contribute to the more accurate digital terrain model generation.

Keywords: digital terrain model, satellite LiDAR, gaussian processes, uncertainty quantification

Procedia PDF Downloads 145

Authors: Riyadh Jamegh, Alla Eldin Kassam, Sawsan Sabih

Abstract:

In order to overcome uncertainty conditions and inability to meet customers' requests due to these conditions, organizations tend to reserve a certain safety stock level (SSL). This level must be chosen carefully in order to avoid the increase in holding cost due to excess in SSL or shortage cost due to too low SSL. This paper used soft computing fuzzy logic to identify optimal SSL; this fuzzy model uses the dynamic concept to cope with high complexity environment status. The proposed model can deal with three input variables, i.e., demand stability level, raw material availability level, and on hand inventory level by using dynamic fuzzy logic to obtain the best SSL as an output. In this model, demand stability, raw material, and on hand inventory levels are described linguistically and then treated by inference rules of the fuzzy model to extract the best level of safety stock. The aim of this research is to provide dynamic approach which is used to identify safety stock level, and it can be implanted in different industries. Numerical case study in the dairy industry with Yogurt 200 gm cup product is explained to approve the validity of the proposed model. The obtained results are compared with the current level of safety stock which is calculated by using the traditional approach. The importance of the proposed model has been demonstrated by the significant reduction in safety stock level.

Keywords: inventory optimization, soft computing, safety stock optimization, dairy industries inventory optimization

Procedia PDF Downloads 101

Authors: Preecha Yupapin And Somnath

Abstract:

From the emptiness, the vibration induces the fractal, and the strings are formed. From which the first elementary particle groups, known as quarks, were established. The neutrino and electron are created by them. More elementary particles and life are formed by organic and inorganic substances. The universe is constructed, from which the multi-universe has formed in the same way. universe assumes that the intense energy has escaped from the singularity cone from the multi-universes. Initially, the single mass energy is confined, from which it is disturbed by the space-time distortion. It splits into the entangled pair, where the circular motion is established. It will consider one side of the entangled pair, where the fusion energy of the strong coupling force has formed. The growth of the fusion energy has the quantum physic phenomena, where the moving of the particle along the circumference with a speed faster than light. It introduces the wave-particle duality aspect, which will be saturated at the stopping point. It will be re-run again and again without limitation, which can say that the universe has been created and expanded. The Bose-Einstein condensate (BEC) is released through the singularity by the wormhole, which will be condensed to become a mass associated with the Sun's size. It will circulate(orbit) along the Sun. the consideration of the uncertainty principle is applied, from which the breath control is followed by the uncertainty condition ∆p∆x=∆E∆t~ℏ. The flowing in-out air into a body via a nose has applied momentum and energy control respecting the movement and time, in which the target is that the distortion of space-time will have vanished. Finally, the body is clean which can go to the next procedure, where the mind can escape from the body by the speed of light. However, the borderline between contemplation to being an Arahant is a vacuum, which will be explained.

Keywords: space-time, relativity, enlightenment, emptiness

Procedia PDF Downloads 37

Authors: Sameen Masood, Muhammad Ali Jibran

Abstract:

The frequent flood history in Pakistan has pronounced the need for disaster risk management. Various policies are formulated and steps are being taken by the government in order to cope with the flood effects. However, a much promising pro-active approach that is globally acknowledged is educating the masses regarding living with risk and uncertainty. Unfortunately, majority of the flood victims in Pakistan are poor and illiterate which also transpires as a significant cause of their distress. An illiterate population is not risk averse or equipped intellectually regarding how to prepare and protect against natural disasters. The current research utilizes a cross-disciplinary approach where the role of education (both formal and informal) and indigenous knowledge is explored with reference to disaster preparedness. The data was collected from the flood prone rural areas of Punjab. In the absence of disaster curriculum taught in formal schools, informal education disseminated by NGOs and relief and rehabilitation agencies was the only education given to the flood victims. However the educational attainment of flood victims highly correlated with their awareness regarding flood management and disaster preparedness. Moreover, lessons learned from past flood experience generated indigenous knowledge on the basis of which flood victims prepared themselves for any uncertainty. If the future policy regarding disaster preparation integrates indigenous knowledge and then delivers education on the basis of that, it is anticipated that the flood devastations can be much reduced. Education can play a vital role in amplifying perception of risk and taking precautionary measures for disaster. The findings of the current research will provide practical strategies where disaster preparedness through education has not yet been applied.

Keywords: education, disaster preparedness, illiterate population, risk management

Procedia PDF Downloads 450

Authors: Tarek S. Duzan, Fisal Ben Ammer, Mohamed Sula

Abstract:

In some places within Sirt Basin-Libya, it has been noticed that seismic data below pre-upper cretaceous unconformity (PUK) is hopeless to resolve the large-scale structural features and is unable to fully determine reservoir delineation. Seismic artifacts (multiples) are observed in the reservoir zone (Nubian Formation) below PUK, which complicate the process of seismic interpretation. The nature of the unconformity and the structures below are still ambiguous and not fully understood which generates a significant gap in characterizing the geometry of the reservoir, the uncertainty accompanied with lack of reliable seismic data creates difficulties in building a robust geological model. High resolution dipmeter is highly useful in steeply dipping zones. This paper uses FMl and OBMl borehole images (dipmeter) to analyze the structures below the PUK unconformity from two wells drilled recently in the North Gialo field (a mature reservoir). In addition, borehole images introduce new evidences that the PUK unconformity is angular and the bedding planes within the Nubian formation (below PUK) are significantly titled. Structural dips extracted from high resolution borehole images are used to construct a new geological model by the utilization of latest software technology. Therefore, it is important to use the advance well logs technology such as FMI-HD for any future drilling and up-date the existing model in order to minimize the structural uncertainty.

Keywords: FMI (formation micro imager), OBMI (oil base mud imager), UBI (ultra sonic borehole imager), nub sandstone reservoir in North gialo

Procedia PDF Downloads 295

Authors: M. R. Ghasemi, R. Ghiasi, H. Varaee

Abstract:

Model updating method has received increasing attention in damage detection structures based on measured modal parameters. Therefore, a probability-based damage detection (PBDD) procedure based on a model updating procedure is presented in this paper, in which a one-stage model-based damage identification technique based on the dynamic features of a structure is investigated. The presented framework uses a finite element updating method with a Monte Carlo simulation that considers the uncertainty caused by measurement noise. Enhanced ideal gas molecular movement (EIGMM) is used as the main algorithm for model updating. Ideal gas molecular movement (IGMM) is a multiagent algorithm based on the ideal gas molecular movement. Ideal gas molecules disperse rapidly in different directions and cover all the space inside. This is embedded in the high speed of molecules, collisions between them and with the surrounding barriers. In IGMM algorithm to accomplish the optimal solutions, the initial population of gas molecules is randomly generated and the governing equations related to the velocity of gas molecules and collisions between those are utilized. In this paper, an enhanced version of IGMM, which removes unchanged variables after specified iterations, is developed. The proposed method is implemented on two numerical examples in the field of structural damage detection. The results show that the proposed method can perform well and competitive in PBDD of structures.

Keywords: enhanced ideal gas molecular movement (EIGMM), ideal gas molecular movement (IGMM), model updating method, probability-based damage detection (PBDD), uncertainty quantification

Procedia PDF Downloads 248

Authors: Hesam Gholami

Abstract:

Elevated suspended sediment loads in riverine systems resulting from accelerated erosion due to human activities are a serious threat to the sustainable management of watersheds and ecosystem services therein worldwide. Therefore, mitigation of deleterious sediment effects as a distributed or non-point pollution source in the catchments requires reliable provenance information. Sediment tracing or sediment fingerprinting, as a combined process consisting of sampling, laboratory measurements, different statistical tests, and the application of mixing or unmixing models, is a useful technique for discriminating the sources of sediments. From 1996 to the present, different aspects of this technique, such as grouping the sources (spatial and individual sources), discriminating the potential sources by different statistical techniques, and modification of mixing and unmixing models, have been introduced and modified by many researchers worldwide, and have been applied to identify the provenance of fine materials in agricultural, rural, mountainous, and coastal catchments, and in large catchments with numerous lakes and reservoirs. In the last two decades, efforts exploring the uncertainties associated with sediment fingerprinting results have attracted increasing attention. The frameworks used to quantify the uncertainty associated with fingerprinting estimates can be divided into three groups comprising Monte Carlo simulation, Bayesian approaches and generalized likelihood uncertainty estimation (GLUE). Given the above background, the primary goal of this study was to apply geochemical fingerprinting within the GLUE framework in the estimation of sub-basin spatial sediment source contributions in the arid Mehran River catchment in southern Iran, which drains into the Persian Gulf. The accuracy of GLUE predictions generated using four different sets of statistical tests for discriminating three sub-basin spatial sources was evaluated using 10 virtual sediments (VS) samples with known source contributions using the root mean square error (RMSE) and mean absolute error (MAE). Based on the results, the contributions modeled by GLUE for the western, central and eastern sub-basins are 1-42% (overall mean 20%), 0.5-30% (overall mean 12%) and 55-84% (overall mean 68%), respectively. According to the mean absolute fit (MAF; ≥ 95% for all target sediment samples) and goodness-of-fit (GOF; ≥ 99% for all samples), our suggested modeling approach is an accurate technique to quantify the source of sediments in the catchments. Overall, the estimated source proportions can help watershed engineers plan the targeting of conservation programs for soil and water resources.

Keywords: sediment source tracing, generalized likelihood uncertainty estimation, virtual sediment mixtures, Iran

Procedia PDF Downloads 43

Authors: Toby Li, Julian Zhu

Abstract:

In this paper, a model based on a simplified geometry is introduced to give a very conservative collision probability prediction for the Starlink satellite in its most densely clustered region. Under the model in this paper, the probability of collision for Starlink satellite where it clustered most densely is found to be 8.484 ∗ 10^−4. It is found that the predicted collision probability increased nonlinearly with the increased safety distance set. This simple model provides evidence that the continuous development of maneuver avoidance systems is necessary for the future of the orbital safety of satellites under the harsher Lower Earth Orbit environment.

Keywords: Starlink, collision probability, debris, geometry model

Procedia PDF Downloads 49

Authors: S. M. Yasir Arafat

Abstract:

Driving models are needed by many researchers to improve traffic safety and to advance autonomous vehicle design. To be most useful, a driving model must state specifically what information is needed and how it is processed. So we developed an “Obstacle Avoidance and Detection Autonomous Car” based on sensor application. The ever increasing technological demands of today call for very complex systems, which in turn require highly sophisticated controllers to ensure that high performance can be achieved and maintained under adverse conditions. Based on a developed model of brakes operation, the controller of braking system operation has been designed. It has a task to enable solution to the problem of the better controlling of braking system operation in a more accurate way then it was the case now a day.

Keywords: automobile, obstacle, safety, sensing

Procedia PDF Downloads 338

Authors: Annabel Burnley, Michelle St. Clair, Charlotte Dack, Yvonne Wren

Abstract:

Children with Developmental Language Disorder (DLD) are well documented to experience social and emotional difficulties. Despite this, there is little consensus as to how these difficulties manifest, without which the ability to develop prevention initiatives is limited. An online survey was completed by 107 parents of either child with DLD (‘DLD sample’; n=57), or typically developing children (‘typical sample’; n=50), all aged 6-12 years old. Psychosocial symptom measures were used, alongside 11 psychosocial statements generated from previous qualitative work. Qualitative interviews were then held to understand the manifestation of key difficulties in more depth (n=4). The DLD sample scored significantly higher on all psychosocial statements than the typical sample. Experiencing anxiety (80.7%), requiring routine and sameness (75.4%) and struggling to regulate their emotions (75.4%) were the most common difficulties for a majority of children with DLD. For this DLD sample, family communication and coping styles were found not to contribute to the manifestation of these difficulties. Two separate mediation models were run to understand the role of other psychosocial difficulties in the manifestation of (1) anxiety and (2) social frustration. ‘Intolerance of uncertainty was found to strongly mediate the relationship between DLD diagnosis and symptoms of anxiety. Emotion regulation was found to moderately mediate the relationship between DLD diagnosis and social frustration. Parents appear to cope well with their children’s complex psychosocial needs, but further external intervention is needed. Intervention focussing on intolerance of uncertainty and emotion dysregulation may help the management of anxiety and social frustration. Further research is needed to understand the children’s routined behaviors.

Keywords: psychosocial difficulties, developmental language disorder, specific language impairment, parent, anxiety

Procedia PDF Downloads 72

Authors: Rosita Kanapeckaite

Abstract:

The modern operational military environment is a combination of factors such as change, uncertainty, complexity and ambiguity. Stiehm (2002) refers to such situations as VUCA situations. VUCA is an acronym commonly used to describe the volatility, uncertainty, complexity and ambiguity of various situations and conditions. Increasingly fast-paced military operations require military personnel to demonstrate readiness and resilience under stressful conditions in order to maintain the optimum cognitive and physical performance necessary to achieve success. Military resilience can be defined as the ability to cope with the negative effects of setbacks and associated stress on military performance and combat effectiveness. In the volatile, uncertain, complex and ambiguous modern operational environment, both current and future operations require and place a higher priority on enhancing and maintaining troop readiness and resilience to win decisively in multidimensional combat. This paper explores the phenomenon of soldiers' psychological resilience, theories of leadership, and commitment to the organisation. The aim of the study is to examine the relationship between soldiers' psychological resilience, leadership style and commitment to the organisation. The study involved 425 professional soldiers, the research method was a questionnaire survey. The instruments used were measures of psychological resilience, leadership styles and commitment to the organisation. Results: transformational leadership style predicts higher psychological resilience, and psychologically resilient professional servicemen are more committed to the organisation. The study confirms the importance of soldiers' psychological resilience for their commitment to the organisation. The paper also discusses practical applications.

Keywords: resilience, commitment, solders, leadership style

Procedia PDF Downloads 50

Authors: Hao Shen, Aparna Labroo

Abstract:

Across four studies, we show people in a negative mood avoid anticipated enjoyable experiences because of the subjective difficulty in simulating those experiences, and they misattribute these feelings of difficulty to reduced pleasantness of the anticipated experience. We observe the avoidance of enjoyable experiences only for anticipated experiences that involve smile-like facial-muscular simulation. When the need for facial-muscular simulation is attenuated, or when the anticipated experience relies on facial-muscular simulation to a lesser extent, people in a negative mood no longer avoid enjoyable experiences, but rather seek such experiences because they fit better with their ongoing mood-repair goals.

Keywords: emotion regulation, mood repair, embodiment, anticipated experiences

Procedia PDF Downloads 392

Authors: Chetra Mang, Ahmadali Tahmasebimoradi, Xavier Lorang

Abstract:

Lattice structures are widely used in various applications, especially in aeronautic, aerospace, and medical applications because of their high performance properties. Thanks to advancement of the additive manufacturing technology, the lattice structures can be manufactured by different methods such as laser beam melting technology. However, the presence of geometric defects in the lattice structures is inevitable due to the manufacturing process. The geometric defects may have high impact on the mechanical strength of the structures. This work analyzes the correlation between the manufacturing parameters and the mechanical strengths of the lattice structures. To do that, two types of the lattice structures; body-centered cubic with z-struts (BCCZ) structures made of Inconel718, and body-centered cubic (BCC) structures made of Scalmalloy, are manufactured by laser melting beam machine using Taguchi design of experiment. Each structure is placed on the substrate with a specific position and orientation regarding the roller direction of deposed metal powder. The position and orientation are considered as the manufacturing parameters. The geometric defects of each beam in the lattice are characterized and used to build the geometric model in order to perform simulations. Then, the mechanical strengths are defined by the homogeneous response as Young's modulus and yield strength. The distribution of mechanical strengths is observed as a function of manufacturing parameters. The mechanical response of the BCCZ structure is stretch-dominated, i.e., the mechanical strengths are directly dependent on the strengths of the vertical beams. As the geometric defects of vertical beams are slightly changed based on their position/orientation on the manufacturing substrate, the mechanical strengths are less dispersed. The manufacturing parameters are less influenced on the mechanical strengths of the structure BCCZ. The mechanical response of the BCC structure is bending-dominated. The geometric defects of inclined beam are highly dispersed within a structure and also based on their position/orientation on the manufacturing substrate. For different position/orientation on the substrate, the mechanical responses are highly dispersed as well. This shows that the mechanical strengths are directly impacted by manufacturing parameters. In addition, this work is carried out to study the uncertainty propagation of the geometric defects on the mechanical strength of the BCC lattice structure made of Scalmalloy. To do that, we observe the distribution of mechanical strengths of the lattice according to the distribution of the geometric defects. A probability density law is determined based on a statistical hypothesis corresponding to the geometric defects of the inclined beams. The samples of inclined beams are then randomly drawn from the density law to build the lattice structure samples. The lattice samples are then used for simulation to characterize the mechanical strengths. The results reveal that the distribution of mechanical strengths of the structures with the same manufacturing parameters is less dispersed than one of the structures with different manufacturing parameters. Nevertheless, the dispersion of mechanical strengths due to the structures with the same manufacturing parameters are unneglectable.

Keywords: geometric defects, lattice structure, mechanical strength, uncertainty propagation

Procedia PDF Downloads 102

Authors: Stephan Printz, Kristina Lahl, René Vossen, Sabina Jeschke

Abstract:

Strategic investment decisions are characterized by high innovation potential and long-term effects on the competitiveness of enterprises. Due to the uncertainty and risks involved in this complex decision making process, the need arises for well-structured support activities. A method that considers cost and the long-term added value is the cost-benefit effectiveness estimation. One of those methods is the “profitability estimation focused on benefits – PEFB”-method developed at the Institute of Management Cybernetics at RWTH Aachen University. The method copes with the challenges associated with strategic investment decisions by integrating long-term non-monetary aspects whilst also mapping the chronological sequence of an investment within the organization’s target system. Thus, this method is characterized as a holistic approach for the evaluation of costs and benefits of an investment. This participation-oriented method was applied to business environments in many workshops. The results of the workshops are a library of more than 96 cost aspects, as well as 122 benefit aspects. These aspects are preprocessed and comparatively analyzed with regards to their alignment to a series of risk levels. For the first time, an accumulation and a distribution of cost and benefit aspects regarding their impact and probability of occurrence are given. The results give evidence that the PEFB-method combines precise measures of financial accounting with the incorporation of benefits. Finally, the results constitute the basics for using information technology and data science for decision support when applying within the PEFB-method.

Keywords: cost-benefit analysis, multi-criteria decision, profitability estimation focused on benefits, risk and uncertainty analysis

Procedia PDF Downloads 413

Authors: K. Raghuwaiya, B. Sharma, J. Vanualailai

Abstract:

This paper presents a set of artificial potential field functions that improves upon; in general, the motion planning and posture control, with theoretically guaranteed point and posture stabilities, convergence and collision avoidance properties of the general 3-trailer system in a priori known environment. We basically design and inject two new concepts; ghost walls and the distance optimization technique (DOT) to strengthen point and posture stabilities, in the sense of Lyapunov, of our dynamical model. This new combination of techniques emerges as a convenient mechanism for obtaining feasible orientations at the target positions with an overall reduction in the complexity of the navigation laws. Simulations are provided to demonstrate the effectiveness of the controls laws.

Keywords: artificial potential fields, 3-trailer systems, motion planning, posture

Procedia PDF Downloads 399

Authors: Md. Moniruzzaman, Thirayoot Limanond

Abstract:

Being the most visible indicator, the transport system of a city points out how developed the city is. Dhaka megacity holds a mixed composition of motorized and non-motorized modes of transport and the number of vehicle figure is escalating over times. And this obviously poses associated environmental costs like air pollution, noise etc. which is degrading the quality of life in the city. Eventually sustainable transport or more importantly green transport from environmental point of view has become a prime choice to the transport professionals in order to cope up the crisis. Currently the city authority is planning to execute such sustainable transport systems that could serve the pressing demand of the present and meet the future needs effectively. This study focuses on the selection and evaluation of green transportation systems among potential alternatives on a priority basis. In this paper, Fuzzy TOPSIS - a multi-criteria decision method is presented to find out the most prioritized alternative. In the first step, Twenty-one individual specific criteria for sustainability assessment are selected. In the following step, experts provide linguistic ratings to the potential alternatives with respect to the selected criteria. The approach is used to generate aggregate scores for sustainability assessment and selection of the best alternative. In the third step, a sensitivity analysis is performed to understand the influence of criteria weights on the decision making process. The key strength of fuzzy TOPSIS approach is its practical applicability having a generation of good quality solution even under uncertainty.

Keywords: green transport, multi-criteria decision approach, urban transportation system, sustainability assessment, fuzzy theory, uncertainty

Procedia PDF Downloads 263

Authors: Linda Frazer

Abstract:

A pluralistic methodology focuses on promoting an understanding that an alternative juridical framework for the regulation of transnational business negotiations (TBN) between private business parties is fundamentally required. This paper deals with the evolving assessment of the doctoral research of the author which demonstrated that due to insufficient juridical tools, negotiations are commonly misunderstood within the complexity of pluralistic and conflicting legal regimes. This inadequacy causes uncertainty in the enforcement of legal remedies, leaving business parties surprised. Consequently, parties cannot sufficiently anticipate when and how legal rights and obligations are created, often counting on oral or incomplete agreements which may lead to the misinterpretation of the extent of their legal rights and obligations. This uncertainty causes threats to business parties for fear of creating unintended legal obligations or, conversely, that law will not enforce intended agreements for failure to pass the tests of contractual validity. A need to find a manner to set default standards of communications and standards of conduct to monitor our evolving global trade would aid law to provide the security, predictability and foreseeability during alternative dispute resolution required by TBN parties. The conclusion of this study includes a proposal of new trade mechanisms, termed 'Bills of Negotiations' (BON) to enhance party autonomy and promote the ability for TBN parties to self-regulate within the boundaries of law. BON will be guided by a secure juridical institutionalized setting that caters to guiding communications during TBN and resolving disputes that arise along the negotiation processes on a fast track basis.

Keywords: alternative resolution disputes, ADR, good faith, good faith, juridical security, legal regulation, trade mechanisms, transnational business negotiations

Procedia PDF Downloads 119

Authors: Ahmed Emad, Ahmed Salah, Abdelrahman Magdy, Omar Rashid, Mohammed Adel

Abstract:

This research paper discusses vehicle-to-vehicle technology as an important application of linear algebra. This communication technology represents an efficient and promising application to help to ensure the safety of the drivers by warning them when a crash possibility is close. The major link that combines our topic with linear algebra is the Laplacian matrix. Some main definitions used in the V2V were illustrated, such as VANET and its characteristics. The V2V technology could be applied in different applications with different traffic scenarios and various ways to warn car drivers. These scenarios were simulated programs such as MATLAB and Python to test how the V2V system would respond to the different scenarios and warn the car drivers exposed to the threat of collisions.

Keywords: V2V communication, vehicle to vehicle scenarios, VANET, FCW, EEBL, IMA, Laplacian matrix

Procedia PDF Downloads 119

Authors: Jules Selles

Abstract:

The Atlantic and Mediterranean bluefin tuna fishery have been considered as the archetype of an overfished and mismanaged fishery. This crisis has demonstrated the role of public awareness and the importance of the interactions between science and management about scientific uncertainties. This work aims at investigating the policy making process associated with a regional fisheries management organization. We propose a contextualized computer-based experimental approach, in order to explore the effects of key factors on the cooperation process in a complex straddling stock management setting. Namely, we analyze the effects of the introduction of a socio-economic tipping point and the uncertainty surrounding the estimation of the resource level. Our approach is based on a Gordon-Schaefer bio-economic model which explicitly represents the decision making process. Each participant plays the role of a stakeholder of ICCAT and represents a coalition of fishing nations involved in the fishery and decide unilaterally a harvest policy for the coming year. The context of the experiment induces the incentives for exploitation and collaboration to achieve common sustainable harvest plans at the Atlantic bluefin tuna stock scale. Our rigorous framework allows testing how stakeholders who plan the exploitation of a fish stock (a common pool resource) respond to two kinds of effects: i) the inclusion of a drastic shift in the management constraints (beyond a socio-economic tipping point) and ii) an increasing uncertainty in the scientific estimation of the resource level.

Keywords: economic experiment, fisheries management, game theory, policy making, Atlantic Bluefin tuna

Procedia PDF Downloads 230