Search results for: storm-runoff scenarios

Authors: Yonggyu Lee, Byungkyu Jung, Bom Yoon, Jongil Yoon

Abstract:

MR-based simulation devices have been recently used in various fields such as entertainment, medicine, manufacturing, and education. Different simulation devices are also being developed for military equipment training. This is to address the concerns regarding safety accidents as well as cost issues associated with training with expensive equipment. An important aspect of developing simulation devices to replicate military training is that trainees experience the same effect as training with real devices. In this study, the criteria for performance evaluation are established to compare the training effect of an MR-based simulation device to that of an actual device. K-9 Self-propelled artillery (SPA) operators are selected as training subjects. First, MR-based software is developed to simulate the training ground and training scenarios currently used for training SPA operators in South Korea. Hardware that replicates the interior of SPA is designed, and a simulation device that is linked to the software is developed. Second, criteria are established to evaluate the simulation device based on real-life training scenarios. A total of nine performance evaluation criteria were selected based on the actual SPA operation training scenarios. Evaluation items were selected to evaluate whether the simulation device was designed such that trainees would experience the same effect as training in the field with a real SPA. To eval-uate the level of replication by the simulation device of the actual training environments (driving and passing through trenches, pools, protrusions, vertical obstacles, and slopes) and driving conditions (rapid steering, rapid accelerating, and rapid braking) as per the training scenarios, tests were performed under the actual training conditions and in the simulation device, followed by the comparison of the results. In addition, the level of noise felt by operators during training was also selected as an evaluation criterion. Due to the nature of the simulation device, there may be data latency between HW and SW. If the la-tency in data transmission is significant, the VR image information delivered to trainees as they maneuver HW might not be consistent. This latency in data transmission was also selected as an evaluation criterion to improve the effectiveness of the training. Through this study, the key evaluation metrics were selected to achieve the same training effect as training with real equipment in a training ground during the develop-ment of the simulation device for military equipment training.

Keywords: K-9 self-propelled artillery, mixed reality, simulation device, synchronization

Procedia PDF Downloads 28

Authors: Luis Reynaldo Mota-Santiago, Angélica Lozano

Abstract:

Determining appropriate measures to face earthquakesarea challenge for practitioners. In the literature, some analyses consider disaster scenarios, disregarding some important field characteristics. Sometimes, software that allows estimating the number of victims and infrastructure damages is used. Other times historical information of previous events is used, or the scenarios’informationis assumed to be available even if it isnot usual in practice. Humanitarian operations start immediately after an earthquake strikes, and the first hours in relief efforts are important; local efforts are critical to assess the situation and deliver relief supplies to the victims. A preparation action is prepositioning stockpiles, most of them at central warehouses placed away from damage-prone areas, which requires large size facilities and budget. Usually, decisions in the first 12 hours (standard relief time (SRT)) after the disaster are the location of temporary depots and the design of distribution paths. The motivation for this research was the delay in the reaction time of the early relief efforts generating the late arrival of aid to some areas after the Mexico City 7.1 magnitude earthquake in 2017. Hence, a preparation approach for planning the immediate response to earthquake disasters is proposed, intended for local governments, considering their capabilities for planning and for responding during the SRT, in order to reduce the start-up time of immediate response operations in urban areas. The first steps are the generation and analysis of disaster scenarios, which allow estimatethe relief demand before and in the early hours after an earthquake. The scenarios can be based on historical data and/or the seismic hazard analysis of an Atlas of Natural Hazards and Risk as a way to address the limited or null available information.The following steps include the decision processes for: a) locating local depots (places to prepositioning stockpiles)and aid-giving facilities at closer places as possible to risk areas; and b) designing the vehicle paths for aid distribution (from local depots to the aid-giving facilities), which can be used at the beginning of the response actions. This approach allows speeding up the delivery of aid in the early moments of the emergency, which could reduce the suffering of the victims allowing additional time to integrate a broader and more streamlined response (according to new information)from national and international organizations into these efforts. The proposed approachis applied to two case studies in Mexico City. These areas were affectedby the 2017’s earthquake, having limited aid response. The approach generates disaster scenarios in an easy way and plans a faster early response with a short quantity of stockpiles which can be managed in the early hours of the emergency by local governments. Considering long-term storage, the estimated quantities of stockpiles require a limited budget to maintain and a small storage space. These stockpiles are useful also to address a different kind of emergencies in the area.

Keywords: disaster logistics, early response, generation of disaster scenarios, preparation phase

Procedia PDF Downloads 90

Authors: Nitin Singh, Meng Ling, Talha Ahmed, Tianxia Zhao, Reinier van de Pol

Abstract:

We propose the use of reinforcement learning (RL) as a viable alternative for optimizing supply chain management, particularly in scenarios with stochasticity in product demands. RL’s adaptability to changing conditions and its demonstrated success in diverse fields of sequential decision-making makes it a promising candidate for addressing supply chain problems. We investigate the impact of demand fluctuations in a multi-product supply chain system and develop RL agents with learned generalizable policies. We provide experimentation details for training RL agents and statistical analysis of the results. We study the generalization ability of RL agents for different demand uncertainty scenarios and observe superior performance compared to the agents trained with fixed demand curves. The proposed methodology has the potential to lead to cost reduction and increased profit for companies dealing with frequent inventory movement between supply and demand nodes.

Keywords: inventory management, reinforcement learning, supply chain optimization, uncertainty

Procedia PDF Downloads 77

Authors: Dawit Abay Tesfamariam

Abstract:

Ethiopia’s Climate- Resilient Green Economy strategy focuses mainly on generating and utilization of Renewable Energy (RE). The data collected in 2016 by Ethiopian Electric Power (EEP) indicates that the intermittent RE sources on the grid from solar and wind energy were only 8 % of the total energy produced. On the other hand, the EEP electricity generation plan in 2030 indicates that 36 % of the energy generation share will be covered by solar and wind sources. Thus, a case study was initiated to model and compute the balance and consumption of electricity in three different scenarios: 2016, 2025, and 2030 using the Energy PLAN Model (EPM). Initially, the model was validated using the 2016 annual power-generated data to conduct the EPM analysis for two predictive scenarios. The EPM simulation analysis using EPM for 2016 showed that there was no significant excess power generated. Hence, the model’s results are in line with the actual 2016 output. Thus, the EPM was applied to analyze the role of energy storage in RE in Ethiopian grid systems. The results of the EPM simulation analysis showed there will be excess production of 402 /7963 MW average and maximum, respectively, in 2025. The excess power was dominant in all months except in the three rainy months of the year (June, July, and August). Consequently, based on the validated outcomes of EPM indicates, there is a good reason to think about other alternatives for the utilization of excess energy and storage of RE. Thus, from the scenarios and model results obtained, it is realistic to infer that; if the excess power is utilized with a storage mechanism that can stabilize the grid system; as a result, the extra RE generated can be exported to support the economy. Therefore, researchers must continue to upgrade the current and upcoming energy storage system to synchronize with RE potentials that can be generated from RE.

Keywords: renewable energy, storage, wind, energyplan

Procedia PDF Downloads 47

Authors: Haitham J. M. Odeh

Abstract:

This paper introduced an analysis of the effect of tunneling near pile foundations. Accomplished by three-dimensional finite element modeling. The numerical simulation is conducted using Abaqus finite element software. By examining different Tunnel-pile scenarios. The paper presents the tunnel induced pile responses, Such as pile settlement, pile internal forces, and the comments made on changing the vertical and transversal location of the tunnel related to the piles, the study contains two pile-supported structure cases, single and a group of piles. A comprehensive comparison between real case study results and numerical simulation is presented. The results of the analysis reveal the critical and safe location of tunnel construction and the positive effect of a group of piles existing instead of single piles. Also, demonstrates the changes in pile responses by changing the tunnel location.

Keywords: pile responses, single pile, group of piles, pile-tunnel interaction

Procedia PDF Downloads 107

Authors: Noman Shabbir, Roheel Nawaz, Muhammad N. Iqbal, Junaid Zafar

Abstract:

This paper focuses on the performance evaluation of routing protocols in WLAN based Wireless Sensor Networks (WSNs). A comparative analysis of routing protocols such as Ad-hoc On-demand Distance Vector Routing System (AODV), Dynamic Source Routing (DSR) and Optimized Link State Routing (OLSR) is been made against different network parameters like network load, end to end delay and throughput in small, medium and large-scale sensor network scenarios to identify the best performing protocol. Simulation results indicate that OLSR gives minimum network load in all three scenarios while AODV gives the best throughput in small scale network but in medium and large scale networks, DSR is better. In terms of delay, OLSR is more efficient in small and medium scale network while AODV is slightly better in large networks.

Keywords: WLAN, WSN, AODV, DSR, OLSR

Procedia PDF Downloads 401

Authors: Chang Liu, John Nash, Stephen D. Prior

Abstract:

This paper presents the design and implementation details of a complete unmanned aerial system (UAS) based on commercial-off-the-shelf (COTS) components, focusing on safety, security, search and rescue scenarios in GPS-denied environments. In particular, the aerial platform is capable of semi-autonomously navigating through extremely low-light, GPS-denied indoor environments based on onboard sensors only, including a downward-facing optical flow camera. Besides, an additional low-cost payload camera system is developed to stream both infrared video and visible light video to a ground station in real-time, for the purpose of detecting sign of life and hidden humans. The total cost of the complete system is estimated to be $1150, and the effectiveness of the system has been tested and validated in practical scenarios.

Keywords: unmanned aerial system, commercial-off-the-shelf, extremely low-light, GPS-denied, optical flow, infrared video

Procedia PDF Downloads 301

Authors: Muhammad Shahid, Kafait Ullah, Kashif Imran, Arshad Mahmood, Maarten Arentsen

Abstract:

Poor planning and governance in the power sector of Pakistan have generated several issues ranging from gradual reliance on thermal-based expensive energy mix, supply shortages, unrestricted demand, subsidization, inefficiencies at different levels of the value chain and resultantly, the circular debt. This situation in the power sector has also hampered the growth of allied economic sectors. This study uses the Long-range Energy Alternative Planning (LEAP) system for electricity modelling of Pakistan from the period of 2016 to 2040. The study has first time in Pakistan forecasted the electricity demand at the provincial level. At the supply side, five scenarios Business as Usual Scenario (BAUS), Coal Scenario (CS), Gas Scenario (GS), Nuclear Scenario (NS) and Renewable Scenario (RS) have been analyzed based on the techno-economic and environmental parameters. The study has also included environmental externality costs for evaluating the actual costs and benefits of different scenarios. Contrary to the expectations, RS has a lower output than even BAUS. The study has concluded that the generation from RS has five times lesser costs than BAUS, CS, and GS. NS can also be an alternative for the sustainable future of Pakistan. Generation from imported coal is not a good option, however, indigenous coal with clean coal technologies should be promoted. This paper proposes energy planners of the country to devise incentives for the utilization of indigenous energy resources including renewables on priority and then clean coal to reduce the energy crises of Pakistan.

Keywords: economic evaluation, externality cost, penetration of renewable energy, regional electricity supply-demand planning

Procedia PDF Downloads 91

Authors: Amir Abbas Fatemi, Zahra Tabrizian, Kabir Sadeghi

Abstract:

To find the location and severity of damage that occurs in a structure, characteristics changes in dynamic and static can be used. The non-destructive techniques are more common, economic, and reliable to detect the global or local damages in structures. This paper presents a non-destructive method in structural damage detection and assessment using GA and static data. Thus, a set of static forces is applied to some of degrees of freedom and the static responses (displacements) are measured at another set of DOFs. An analytical model of the truss structure is developed based on the available specification and the properties derived from static data. The damages in structure produce changes to its stiffness so this method used to determine damage based on change in the structural stiffness parameter. Changes in the static response which structural damage caused choose to produce some simultaneous equations. Genetic Algorithms are powerful tools for solving large optimization problems. Optimization is considered to minimize objective function involve difference between the static load vector of damaged and healthy structure. Several scenarios defined for damage detection (single scenario and multiple scenarios). The static damage identification methods have many advantages, but some difficulties still exist. So it is important to achieve the best damage identification and if the best result is obtained it means that the method is Reliable. This strategy is applied to a plane truss. This method is used for a plane truss. Numerical results demonstrate the ability of this method in detecting damage in given structures. Also figures show damage detections in multiple damage scenarios have really efficient answer. Even existence of noise in the measurements doesn’t reduce the accuracy of damage detections method in these structures.

Keywords: damage detection, finite element method, static data, non-destructive, genetic algorithm

Procedia PDF Downloads 201

Authors: Asad Iqbal, Feixiang Zan, Xiaoming Liu, Guang-Hao Chen

Abstract:

Water, food, and energy nexus is a vital subject to achieve sustainable development goals worldwide. Wastewater (WW) and food waste (FW) from municipal sources are primary contributors to their respective wastage sum from a country. Along with the loss of these invaluable natural resources, their treatment systems also consume a lot of abiotic energy and resources input with a perceptible contribution to global warming. Hence, the global paradigm has evolved from simple pollution mitigation to a resource recovery system (RRS). In this study, the prospects of six alternative FW treatment scenarios are quantitatively evaluated for Hong Kong in terms of energy use and greenhouse emissions (GHEs) potential, using life cycle assessment (LCA). Considered scenarios included: aerobic composting, anaerobic digestion (AD), combine AD and composting (ADC), co-disposal, and treatment with wastewater (CoD-WW), incineration, and conventional landfilling as base-case. Results revealed that in terms of GHEs saving, all-new scenarios performed significantly better than conventional landfilling, with ADC scenario as best-case and incineration, AD alone, CoD-WW ranked as second, third, and fourth best respectively. Whereas, composting was the worst-case scenario in terms of energy balance, while incineration ranked best and AD alone, ADC, and CoD-WW ranked as second, third, and fourth best, respectively. However, these results are highly sensitive to boundary settings, e.g., the inclusion of the impact of biogenic carbon emissions and waste collection and transportation, and several other influential parameters. The study provides valuable insights and policy guidelines for the decision-makers locally and a generic modelling template for environmental impact assessment.

Keywords: food waste, resource recovery, greenhouse emissions, energy balance

Procedia PDF Downloads 80

Authors: Ahlam Elkilani, Bayan Elsheikh Ali, Rasha Abu Romman, Amjed Al-mousa, Belal Sababha

Abstract:

The amount of energy the world uses doubles every 20 years. Green homes play an important role in reducing the residential energy demand. This paper presents a platform that is intended to learn the behavior of home residents and build a profile about their habits and actions. The proposed resident aware home controller intervenes in the operation of home appliances in order to save energy without compromising the convenience of the residents. The presented platform can be used to simulate the actions and movements happening inside a home. The paper includes several optimization techniques that are meant to save energy in the home. In addition, several test scenarios are presented that show how the controller works. Moreover, this paper shows the computed actual savings when each of the presented techniques is implemented in a typical home. The test scenarios have validated that the techniques developed are capable of effectively saving energy at homes.

Keywords: green home, resident aware, resident profile, activity learning, machine learning

Procedia PDF Downloads 363

Authors: Roseliza Mat Alipiah, David Raffaelli, J. C. R. Smart

Abstract:

This research is a new approach as it integrates information from both environmental and social sciences to inform effective management of the wetlands. A three-stage research framework was developed for modelling the drivers and pressures imposed on the wetlands and their impacts to the ecosystem and the local communities. Firstly, a Bayesian Belief Network (BBN) was used to predict the probability of anthropogenic activities affecting the delivery of different key wetland ecosystem services under different management scenarios. Secondly, Choice Experiments (CEs) were used to quantify the relative preferences which key wetland stakeholder group (aquaculturists) held for delivery of different levels of these key ecosystem services. Thirdly, a Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA) was applied to produce an ordinal ranking of the alternative management scenarios accounting for their impacts upon ecosystem service delivery as perceived through the preferences of the aquaculturists. This integrated ecosystem management approach was applied to a wetland ecosystem in Setiu, Terengganu, Malaysia which currently supports a significant level of aquaculture activities. This research has produced clear guidelines to inform policy makers considering alternative wetland management scenarios: Intensive Aquaculture, Conservation or Ecotourism, in addition to the Status Quo. The findings of this research are as follows: The BBN revealed that current aquaculture activity is likely to have significant impacts on water column nutrient enrichment, but trivial impacts on caged fish biomass, especially under the Intensive Aquaculture scenario. Secondly, the best fitting CE models identified several stakeholder sub-groups for aquaculturists, each with distinct sets of preferences for the delivery of key ecosystem services. Thirdly, the MCDA identified Conservation as the most desirable scenario overall based on ordinal ranking in the eyes of most of the stakeholder sub-groups. Ecotourism and Status Quo scenarios were the next most preferred and Intensive Aquaculture was the least desirable scenario. The methodologies developed through this research provide an opportunity for improving planning and decision making processes that aim to deliver sustainable management of wetland ecosystems in Malaysia.

Keywords: Bayesian belief network (BBN), choice experiments (CE), multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA), aquaculture

Procedia PDF Downloads 264

Authors: Vahid Khadjeh Anvary, Hamideh Karimi Yazdi

Abstract:

Generally, the tool of comparison between performance of each stage in the life of a project, is the number of project progress during that period, which in most cases is only determined as one-dimensional with referring to one of three factors (physical, time, and financial). In many projects in developing countries there are controversies on accuracy and the way of analyzing progress report of projects that hinders getting definitive and engineering conclusions on the status of project.Identifying weakness points of this kind of one-dimensional look on project and determining a reliable and engineering approach for multi-dimensional decoding information receivable from project is of great importance in project management.This can be a tool to help identification of hidden diseases of project before appearing irreversible symptoms that are usually delays or increased costs of execution. The method used in this paper is defining and evaluating a hypothetical project as an example analyzing different scenarios and numerical comparison of them along with related graphs and tables. Finally, by analyzing different possible scenarios in the project, possibility or impossibility of predicting their occurrence is examine through the evidence.

Keywords: physical progress, time progress, financial progress, delays, critical path

Procedia PDF Downloads 347

Authors: K. H. Yang, T. C. Yeh, P. S. Lu, F. C. Yang, T. Y. Wu, W. J. Sung

Abstract:

In this study, a series of full-scale hot smoke tests has been conducted to validate the performances of the smoke management system in the WWY center for arts before grand opening. Totaled 19 scenarios has been established and experimented with fire sizes ranging from 2 MW to 10 MW. The measured ASET data provided by the smoke management system experimentation were compared with the computer-simulated RSET values for egress during the design phase. The experimental result indicated that this system could successfully provide a safety margin of 200% and ensure a safe evacuation in case of fire in the WWY project, including worst-cases and fail-safe scenarios. The methodology developed and results obtained in this project can provide a useful reference for future applications, such as for the large-scale indoor sports dome and arena, stadium, shopping malls, airport terminals, and stations or tunnels for railway and subway systems.

Keywords: building hot smoke tests, performance-based smoke management system designs, full-scale experimental validation, tenable condition criteria

Procedia PDF Downloads 415

Authors: Edward Guillén, Jeisson Sánchez, Carlos Omar Ramos

Abstract:

In recent years, a wide variety of applications are developed with Support Vector Machines -SVM- methods and Artificial Neural Networks -ANN-. In general, these methods depend on intrusion knowledge databases such as KDD99, ISCX, and CAIDA among others. New classes of detectors are generated by machine learning techniques, trained and tested over network databases. Thereafter, detectors are employed to detect anomalies in network communication scenarios according to user’s connections behavior. The first detector based on training dataset is deployed in different real-world networks with mobile and non-mobile devices to analyze the performance and accuracy over static detection. The vulnerabilities are based on previous work in telemedicine apps that were developed on the research group. This paper presents the differences on detections results between some network scenarios by applying traditional detectors deployed with artificial neural networks and support vector machines.

Keywords: anomaly detection, back-propagation neural networks, network intrusion detection systems, support vector machines

Procedia PDF Downloads 314

Authors: Ida Bagus Mandhara Brasika, I Dewa Gde Sathya Deva

Abstract:

Wolbachia is recently developed as the natural enemy of Dengue virus (DENV). It inhibits the replication of DENV in Aedes aegypti. Both DENV and its vector, Aedes aegypty, are sensitive to climate factor especially temperature. The changing of climate has a direct impact on temperature which means changing the vector transmission. Temperature has been known to effect Wolbachia density as it has an ideal temperature to grow. Some scenarios, which are known as Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs), have been developed by Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) to predict the future climate based on greenhouse gases concentration. These scenarios are applied to mitigate the future change of Aedes aegypti migration and how Wolbachia could control the virus. The prediction will determine the schemes to release Wolbachia-injected Aedes aegypti to reduce DENV transmission.

Keywords: Aedes aegypti, climate change, dengue virus, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, representative concentration pathways, Wolbachia

Procedia PDF Downloads 274

Authors: C. Smith, T. Goga, T. Hancock

Abstract:

Bullying has been an increasingly prevalent problem among society for decades. Approximately one out of every four students report being bullied at least once during the school year. Additionally, these instances of bullying are often witnessed but not reported by the bystanders, which could be dependent on the type of bullying situation. Thus, the present study aims to investigate any possible perceptual differences which may exist between traditional bullying (i.e., face to face) and cyberbullying from the bystander’s point of view. Undergraduate students were given a bullying scenario to read from either the traditional condition or the cyber condition. They were then asked to rate how severe they perceived this behavior on a Likert based scale. Participants were also asked if they would intervene (yes or no) and what their individual response would be to the witnessed behavior (report/ignore/confront/other). Results indicated that, while there was no significant difference in perceived severity between the two bullying conditions, there was a significant difference in whether or not participants would intervene between the two types of scenarios. A significant effect was also found between the scenarios for response type. Together, these findings suggest that even though individuals may not be aware of how severe they perceive certain bullying behaviors, the responses they exhibit might suggest otherwise.

Keywords: bullying, bystander, cyber, severity, traditional

Procedia PDF Downloads 112

Authors: S. K. Hashemi, M. A. Bradford, H. R. Valipour

Abstract:

The Recent collapse of bridges has raised the awareness about safety and robustness of bridges subjected to extreme loading scenarios such as intentional/unintentional blast loads. The air blast generated by the explosion of bombs or fuel tankers leads to high-magnitude short-duration loading scenarios that can cause severe structural damage and loss of critical structural members. Hence, more attentions need to put towards bridge structures to develop guidelines to increase the resistance of such structures against the probable blast. Recent advancements in numerical methods have brought about the viable and cost effective facilities to simulate complicated blast scenarios and subsequently provide useful reference for safeguarding design of critical infrastructures. In the previous studies common bridge responses to blast load, the traffic load is sometimes not included in the analysis. Including traffic load will increase the axial compression in bridge piers especially when the axial load is relatively small. Traffic load also can reduce the uplift of girders and deck when the bridge experiences under deck explosion. For more complicated structures like cable-stayed or suspension bridges, however, the effect of traffic loads can be completely different. The tension in the cables increase and progressive collapse is likely to happen while traffic loads exist. Accordingly, this study is an attempt to simulate the effect of traffic load cases on the maximum local and global response of an entire cable-stayed bridge subjected to blast loadings using LS-DYNA explicit finite element code. The blast loads ranged from small to large explosion placed at different positions above the deck. Furthermore, the variation of the traffic load factor in the load combination and its effect on the dynamic response of the bridge under blast load is investigated.

Keywords: blast, cable-stayed bridge, LS-DYNA, numerical, traffic load

Procedia PDF Downloads 307

Authors: M. Rahimi, F. Corman

Abstract:

This paper study the travel behavior of passengers in a public transport disruption under information provision strategies. We develop a within-day approach for multi-agent simulation to evaluate the behavior of the agents, under comprehensive scenarios through various information exposure, equilibrium, and non-equilibrium scenarios. In particular, we quantify the effects of information strategies in disruption situation on passengers’ satisfaction, number of involved agents, and the caused delay. An agent-based micro-simulation model (MATSim) is applied for the city of Zürich, Switzerland, for the purpose of activity-based simulation in a multimodal network. Statistic outcome is analysed for all the agents who may be involved in the disruption. Agents’ movement in the public transport network illustrates agents’ adaptations to available information about the disruption. Agents’ delays and utility reveal that information significantly affects agents’ satisfaction and delay in public transport disruption. Besides, while the earlier availability of the information causes the fewer consequent delay for the involved agents, however, it also leads to more amount of affected agents.

Keywords: agent-based simulation, disruption management, passengers’ behavior simulation, public transport

Procedia PDF Downloads 97

Authors: Ahmet Parlak, Celalettin Bilgen

Abstract:

In order to create an effective early warning system, Identification of the risks, preparation and carrying out risk modeling of risk scenarios, taking into account the shortcomings of the old disaster scenarios should be used to improve the system. In the light of this, the importance of risk modeling in creating an effective early warning system is understood. In the scope of TAFRISK project risk modeling trend analysis report on risk modeling developed and a demonstration was conducted for Risk Modeling for flood and mass movements. For risk modeling R&D, studies have been conducted to determine the information, and source of the information, to be gathered, to develop algorithms and to adapt the current algorithms to Turkey’s conditions for determining the risk score in the high disaster risk areas. For each type of the disaster; Disaster Deficit Index (DDI), Local Disaster Index (LDI), Prevalent Vulnerability Index (PVI), Risk Management Index (RMI) have been developed as disaster indices taking danger, sensitivity, fragility, and vulnerability, the physical and economic damage into account in the appropriate scale of the respective type.

Keywords: disaster, hazard, risk modeling, sensor

Procedia PDF Downloads 396

Authors: Dawit Abay Tesfamariam

Abstract:

Ethiopia’s Climate- Resilient Green Economy (ECRGE) strategy focuses mainly on generating and proper utilization of renewable energy (RE). Nonetheless, the current electricity generation of the country is dominated by hydropower. The data collected in 2016 by Ethiopian Electric Power (EEP) indicates that the intermittent RE sources from solar and wind energy were only 8 %. On the other hand, the EEP electricity generation plan in 2030 indicates that 36.1 % of the energy generation share will be covered by solar and wind sources. Thus, a case study was initiated to model and compute the balance and consumption of electricity in three different scenarios: 2016, 2025, and 2030 using the EnergyPLAN Model (EPM). Initially, the model was validated using the 2016 annual power-generated data to conduct the EnergyPLAN (EP) analysis for two predictive scenarios. The EP simulation analysis using EPM for 2016 showed that there was no significant excess power generated. Thus, the EPM was applied to analyze the role of energy storage in RE in Ethiopian grid systems. The results of the EP simulation analysis showed there will be excess production of 402 /7963 MW average and maximum, respectively, in 2025. The excess power was in the three rainy months of the year (June, July, and August). The outcome of the model also showed that in the dry seasons of the year, there would be excess power production in the country. Consequently, based on the validated outcomes of EP indicates, there is a good reason to think about other alternatives for the utilization of excess energy and storage of RE. Thus, from the scenarios and model results obtained, it is realistic to infer that if the excess power is utilized with a storage system, it can stabilize the grid system and be exported to support the economy. Therefore, researchers must continue to upgrade the current and upcoming storage system to synchronize with potentials that can be generated from renewable energy.

Keywords: renewable energy, power, storage, wind, energy plan

Procedia PDF Downloads 45

Authors: E. Feizi Ashtiani, S. Jamshidi, M.H Niksokhan, A. Feizi Ashtiani

Abstract:

Waste load allocation (WLA) policies may use multi-objective optimization methods to find the most appropriate and sustainable solutions. These usually intend to simultaneously minimize two criteria, total abatement costs (TC) and environmental violations (EV). If other criteria, such as inequity, need for minimization as well, it requires introducing more binary optimizations through different scenarios. In order to reduce the calculation steps, this study presents value index as an innovative decision making approach. Since the value index contains both the environmental violation and treatment costs, it can be maximized simultaneously with the equity index. It implies that the definition of different scenarios for environmental violations is no longer required. Furthermore, the solution is not necessarily the point with minimized total costs or environmental violations. This idea is testified for Haraz River, in north of Iran. Here, the dissolved oxygen (DO) level of river is simulated by Streeter-Phelps equation in MATLAB software. The WLA is determined for fish farms using multi-objective particle swarm optimization (MOPSO) in two scenarios. At first, the trade-off curves of TC-EV and TC-Inequity are plotted separately as the conventional approach. In the second, the Value-Equity curve is derived. The comparative results show that the solutions are in a similar range of inequity with lower total costs. This is due to the freedom of environmental violation attained in value index. As a result, the conventional approach can well be replaced by the value index particularly for problems optimizing these objectives. This reduces the process to achieve the best solutions and may find better classification for scenario definition. It is also concluded that decision makers are better to focus on value index and weighting its contents to find the most sustainable alternatives based on their requirements.

Keywords: waste load allocation (WLA), value index, multi objective particle swarm optimization (MOPSO), Haraz River, equity

Procedia PDF Downloads 399

Authors: Azeez O. Ganiyu

Abstract:

Climate change is expected to lead to substantial changes in rainfall patterns in southwest Nigeria, and this may have substantial consequence for forest management and for conservation outcomes throughout the region. We examine three different forest types across an environmental spectrum from semi-arid to humid subtropical and consider their response to water shortages and other environmental stresses; we also explore the potential consequence for conservation and timber production by considering impacts on forest structure and limiting stand density. Analysis of a series of scenarios provides the basis for a critique of existing management practices and suggests practical alternatives to develop resilient forests with minimal diminution of production and environmental services. We specifically discuss practical silviculture interventions that are feasible at the landscape-scale, that are economically viable, and that have the potential to enhance resilience of forest stands. We also discuss incentives to encourage adoption of these approaches by private forest owners. We draw on these case studies in southwestern Nigeria to offer generic principle to assist forest researchers and managers faced with similar challenges elsewhere.

Keywords: climate change, forest, future, silviculture, Nigeria

Procedia PDF Downloads 88

Authors: Karen Armstrong

Abstract:

This study is a narrative inquiry into the use of simulated person methodology (SPM) in teacher education classes. This methodology -often used in medical schools- has tremendous benefits in terms of enhancing experiential education in teacher education classes. Literacy education is a major focus in elementary schools. New teachers must work with parents to ensure that children learn to read and expand their literacy horizons. The classes used in this narrative inquiry research consist of one graduate class on family literacy and two pre-service teacher education classes: literacy and culture and early and family literacy. Two scenarios were devised, both of which simulated a parent-teacher interview. In the first scenario, the parent is a reluctant father who is ashamed of his lack of reading ability and does not understand why literacy is important. His seven-year-old son, wanting to emulate his father, has suddenly transformed from an eager student to one who rejects the value of reading in loyalty to his father who cannot read. In the second scenario, a father is called in by the teacher because his son has started acting out in class. The mother in this scenario is temporarily absent from the home, and the father is now the sole caregiver. In each of the scenarios, students are the teachers who are problem-solving these dilemmas in a safe environment with the 'parent' who is a specially trained simulated person. Teacher candidates enact, with the trained simulated person, their strategies for encouraging parents to engage in the literacy development of their children. Teacher candidates attempt to offer support and encouragement to parents. This simulation strategy offers both beginning and more experienced teachers the opportunity to practice an interview with two distinct and contrasting family situations with regard to the literacy of young children. The paper discusses the details of the scenarios enacted in class and the reflective discussion through which students learn from the simulation.

Keywords: experiential education, literacy, simulated person methodology, teacher education

Procedia PDF Downloads 84

Authors: Chinazo Onyeka Eziuzo

Abstract:

This work presents the simulation and control of the flywheel system in the rotor of a wind turbine using Simulink and OpenFAST for assessing the effect on the mechanical loads. This concept allows the flywheel system to serve two main tasks: supporting the power system and mitigating the mechanical loads in the wind turbine. These tasks are grouped into four control scenarios; scenario 1 represents steadying the power infeed in the Flywheel, scenario 2 represents steadying power with FW and grid loss, scenario 3 represents mitigating excitations from gravity, and scenario 4 represents damping in-plane blade vibrations. The s-function of the OpenFAST model was used to substitute the given 1st Eigen mode model of the WT. After that, the simulations were run for the above-listed scenarios. Additionally, the effects of the control options on the mechanical loads were assessed, and it was established that the FW system assists in steadying infeed power and mechanical load mitigation.

Keywords: simulation, control, wind turbine, OpenFAST

Procedia PDF Downloads 75

Authors: L. C. Ansanelli, P. Alfredini

Abstract:

The article presents the evaluation of the effectiveness of two groins located at Gonzaguinha and Milionários Beaches, situated on the southeast coast of Brazil. The effectiveness of these coastal defense structures is evaluated in terms of sedimentary dynamics, which is one of the most important environmental processes to be assessed in coastal engineering studies. The applied method is based on the implementation of the Delft3D numerical model system tools. Delft3D-WAVE module was used for waves modelling, Delft3D-FLOW for hydrodynamic modelling and Delft3D-SED for sediment transport modelling. The calibration of the models was carried out in a way that the simulations adequately represent the region studied, evaluating improvements in the model elements with the use of statistical comparisons of similarity between the results and waves, currents and tides data recorded in the study area. Analysis of the maximum wave heights was carried to select the months with higher accumulated energy to implement these conditions in the engineering scenarios. The engineering studies were performed for two scenarios: 1) numerical simulation of the area considering only the two existing groins; 2) conception of breakwaters coupled at the ends of the existing groins, resulting in two “T” shaped structures. The sediment model showed that, for the simulated period, the area is affected by erosive processes and that the existing groins have little effectiveness in defending the coast in question. The implemented T structures showed some effectiveness in protecting the beaches against erosion and provided the recovery of the portion directly covered by it on the Milionários Beach. In order to complement this study, it is suggested the conception of further engineering scenarios that might recover other areas of the studied region.

Keywords: coastal engineering, coastal erosion, Sao Vicente bay, Delft3D, coastal engineering works

Procedia PDF Downloads 102

Authors: Mirza Ahsan Baig, Paul Evans

Abstract:

Due to the high demand for automobiles, manufacturers have to run their production lines non-stop for long periods. At such a scale, unplanned downtime could cost up to $50 billion annually. Improper training of new hires could lead to safety issues causing unplanned downtimes. The project developed a virtual reality simulation that could train personnel for key operations on an automobile manufacturing floor, reducing the risk of unplanned downtime while eliminating any disruption (due to training) on the assembly line. An automation firm sponsored it to explore the possibilities the likes of Jaguar and BMW are yet to achieve! The project was inspired by Bentley, the only company that succeeded in simulation training scenarios within virtual space. The project aims to inspire other significant firms to do the same. It was increasing employee safety, eliminating downtimes, and improving efficiency. The developed prototype uncovered various limitations within existing simulation providers and was able to simulate state-of-the-art training scenarios. It also explored the possibility of a multiuser interface and resolved complex issues such as lack of movement space within the training area.

Keywords: virtual reality, scenario training, limited movement, multiuser

Procedia PDF Downloads 54

Authors: Omid Khandel, Azadeh Parvin

Abstract:

An increase in accidental explosions in recent years has increased the interest on investigating the response and behavior of structures in more details. The present work focused on finite element analysis of multistory steel frame structures with different plan shapes subjected to blast loadings. In order to study the effect of the geometry of the building, three different shapes for the plan of the building were modeled and studied; Rectangular, Square and L shape plans. The nonlinear dynamic analysis was considered in this study. The relocation technique was also used to improve the behavior of structure. The accuracy of the multistory frame model was confirmed with those of the existing study in the literature and they were in good agreement. The effect of span length of the buildings was also considered. Finite element analysis of various scenarios for relocating the plastic hinges and improving the response of the structure was performed. The base shear versus displacement curves were compared to reveal the best possible scenarios to provide recommendations to designers and practitioners.

Keywords: nonlinear dynamic analysis, plastic hinge relocation, Retrofit, SAP2000

Procedia PDF Downloads 247

Authors: Dua K. S. Y. Klaas, Monzur A. Imteaz, Ika Sudiayem, Elkan M. E. Klaas, Eldav C. M. Klaas

Abstract:

Developing tailored management strategies to ensure the sustainability of groundwater resource under climate and demographic changes is critical for tropical karst island, where relatively small watershed and highly porous soil nature make this natural resource highly susceptible and thus very sensitive to those changes. In this study, long-term impacts of climate variability on groundwater recharge and discharge at the Oemau spring, Rote Island, Indonesia were investigated. Following calibration and validation of groundwater model using MODFLOW code, groundwater flow was simulated for period of 2020-2090 under HadCM3 global model climate (GCM) scenarios, using input data of weather variables downscaled by Statistical Downscaling Model (SDSM). The reported analysis suggests that the sustainability of groundwater resources will be adversely affected by climate change during dry years. The area is projected to variably experience 2.53-22.80% decrease of spring discharge. A subsequent comprehensive set of management strategies as palliative and adaptive efforts was proposed to be implemented by relevant stakeholders to assist the community dealing with water deficit during the dry years. Three main adaptive strategies, namely socio-cultural, technical, and ecological measures, were proposed by incorporating physical and socio-economic characteristics of the area. This study presents a blueprint for assessing groundwater sustainability under climate change scenarios and developing tailored management strategies to cope with adverse impacts of climate change, which may become fundamental necessities across other tropical karst islands in the future.

Keywords: climate change, groundwater, management strategies, tropical karst island, Rote Island, Indonesia

Procedia PDF Downloads 121

Authors: Pascal Gliesche, Kathrin Seibert, Christian Kowalski, Dominik Domhoff, Max Pfingsthorn, Karin Wolf-Ostermann, Andreas Hein

Abstract:

Robotic assistance in nursing care is an increasingly important area of research and development. Facing a shortage of labor and an increasing number of people in need of care, the German Nursing Care Innovation Center (Pflegeinnovationszentrum, PIZ) aims to address these challenges from the side of technology. Little is known about nurses experiences with existing robotic assistance systems. Especially nurses perspectives on starting points for the development of robotic solutions, that target recurring burdensome tasks in everyday nursing care, are of interest. This paper presents findings focusing on robotics resulting from an explanatory mixed-methods study on nurses experiences with and their expectations for innovative technologies in nursing care in stationary and ambulant care facilities and hospitals in Germany. Based on the findings, eight scenarios for robotic assistance are identified based on the real needs of practitioners. An initial system addressing a single use-case is described to show perspectives for the use of robots in nursing care.

Keywords: robotics and automation, engineering management, engineering in medicine and biology, medical services, public health-care

Procedia PDF Downloads 125