Search results for: stochastic game
Commenced in January 2007
Frequency: Monthly
Edition: International
Paper Count: 1055

Search results for: stochastic game

785 Application of Stochastic Models to Annual Extreme Streamflow Data

Authors: Karim Hamidi Machekposhti, Hossein Sedghi

Abstract:

This study was designed to find the best stochastic model (using of time series analysis) for annual extreme streamflow (peak and maximum streamflow) of Karkheh River at Iran. The Auto-regressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model used to simulate these series and forecast those in future. For the analysis, annual extreme streamflow data of Jelogir Majin station (above of Karkheh dam reservoir) for the years 1958–2005 were used. A visual inspection of the time plot gives a little increasing trend; therefore, series is not stationary. The stationarity observed in Auto-Correlation Function (ACF) and Partial Auto-Correlation Function (PACF) plots of annual extreme streamflow was removed using first order differencing (d=1) in order to the development of the ARIMA model. Interestingly, the ARIMA(4,1,1) model developed was found to be most suitable for simulating annual extreme streamflow for Karkheh River. The model was found to be appropriate to forecast ten years of annual extreme streamflow and assist decision makers to establish priorities for water demand. The Statistical Analysis System (SAS) and Statistical Package for the Social Sciences (SPSS) codes were used to determinate of the best model for this series.

Keywords: stochastic models, ARIMA, extreme streamflow, Karkheh river

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784 Gas Network Noncooperative Game

Authors: Teresa Azevedo PerdicoúLis, Paulo Lopes Dos Santos

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The conceptualisation of the problem of network optimisation as a noncooperative game sets up a holistic interactive approach that brings together different network features (e.g., com-pressor stations, sources, and pipelines, in the gas context) where the optimisation objectives are different, and a single optimisation procedure becomes possible without having to feed results from diverse software packages into each other. A mathematical model of this type, where independent entities take action, offers the ideal modularity and subsequent problem decomposition in view to design a decentralised algorithm to optimise the operation and management of the network. In a game framework, compressor stations and sources are under-stood as players which communicate through network connectivity constraints–the pipeline model. That is, in a scheme similar to tatonnementˆ, the players appoint their best settings and then interact to check for network feasibility. The devolved degree of network unfeasibility informs the players about the ’quality’ of their settings, and this two-phase iterative scheme is repeated until a global optimum is obtained. Due to network transients, its optimisation needs to be assessed at different points of the control interval. For this reason, the proposed approach to optimisation has two stages: (i) the first stage computes along the period of optimisation in order to fulfil the requirement just mentioned; (ii) the second stage is initialised with the solution found by the problem computed at the first stage, and computes in the end of the period of optimisation to rectify the solution found at the first stage. The liability of the proposed scheme is proven correct on an abstract prototype and three example networks.

Keywords: connectivity matrix, gas network optimisation, large-scale, noncooperative game, system decomposition

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783 Heuristic Methods for the Capacitated Location- Allocation Problem with Stochastic Demand

Authors: Salinee Thumronglaohapun

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The proper number and appropriate locations of service centers can save cost, raise revenue and gain more satisfaction from customers. Establishing service centers is high-cost and difficult to relocate. In long-term planning periods, several factors may affect the service. One of the most critical factors is uncertain demand of customers. The opened service centers need to be capable of serving customers and making a profit although the demand in each period is changed. In this work, the capacitated location-allocation problem with stochastic demand is considered. A mathematical model is formulated to determine suitable locations of service centers and their allocation to maximize total profit for multiple planning periods. Two heuristic methods, a local search and genetic algorithm, are used to solve this problem. For the local search, five different chances to choose each type of moves are applied. For the genetic algorithm, three different replacement strategies are considered. The results of applying each method to solve numerical examples are compared. Both methods reach to the same best found solution in most examples but the genetic algorithm provides better solutions in some cases.

Keywords: location-allocation problem, stochastic demand, local search, genetic algorithm

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782 Reliability Based Topology Optimization: An Efficient Method for Material Uncertainty

Authors: Mehdi Jalalpour, Mazdak Tootkaboni

Abstract:

We present a computationally efficient method for reliability-based topology optimization under material properties uncertainty, which is assumed to be lognormally distributed and correlated within the domain. Computational efficiency is achieved through estimating the response statistics with stochastic perturbation of second order, using these statistics to fit an appropriate distribution that follows the empirical distribution of the response, and employing an efficient gradient-based optimizer. The proposed algorithm is utilized for design of new structures and the changes in the optimized topology is discussed for various levels of target reliability and correlation strength. Predictions were verified thorough comparison with results obtained using Monte Carlo simulation.

Keywords: material uncertainty, stochastic perturbation, structural reliability, topology optimization

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781 Mobile Games Applications Android-Based Physics Education to Improve Student Motivation and Interest in Learning Physics

Authors: Rizky Dwi A, Mikha Herlina Pi

Abstract:

Physics lessons for high school students, especially in Indonesia is less desirable because many people believe that physics is very difficult, especially the development of increasingly sophisticated era make online gaming more attractive many people especially school children with a variety of increasingly sophisticated gadgets. Therefore, if those two things combined to attract students in physics, the physics-based educational game android can motivate students' interest and understanding of the physics because while playing, they can also learn physics.

Keywords: education, game physics, interest, student's motivation

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780 The Effect Training Program on Mixed Contractions on Both the Maximum Force and Explosive Force of the Lower Limbs Conducted Study to the Football Players Under the Age of 17 Years-Tiaret, Algeria

Authors: Saidia Houari

Abstract:

The game of football is one of the global sports activities that have witnessed a remarkable development in recent years in the physical, technical, rhetorical and psychological aspects, so the modern play in different teams and international teams quickly and forcefully in the exact technical performance, and this is due to the interest of international coaches. The good training of the players during the youth stage at the level of various aspects to develop all the techniques that have a great effectiveness in competitions according to scientific methods studied. The muscle strength plays a very important role achieving the performance player during the game and it is clear the need for the player in many situations, especially when jumping to hit the ball head or the goal on the goal or long passes of different types and in the performance of various skills by force and speed appropriate to the possession of the ball or the control of the court of the court while overcoming the body weight during the game it is known that the stronger the muscles of the athlete and the reduced joints injuries, and the strength increases energy saving such as Latin phosphate and glycogen, and develop the player for a game football volitional qualities of the most important of courage, determination And self-confidence. There are also some skill movements that can not be performed without a certain level of strength, so the development of power may affect the effectiveness of the long-term training system.

Keywords: trainning program, maximum force and expolosive force, lowers limbs, under 17 years

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779 Use of Visual, Animating Narrative in an Entrepreneurial Storytelling: A Case Study of Greenesignit! Card Game, Educational and Brainstorming Tool for Development of Sustainable Products

Authors: Maja S. Todorovic

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This paper aims to promote entrepreneurial storytelling by exploring new ideas and learning practices. An entrepreneur needs to be a ‘storyteller’, an ‘epic hero’, capable of offering an emotional connection to his audience, a character with whom audience can identify with, rejoice, suffer, celebrate, fail – simply experience everything. In other words, a successful entrepreneur is giving tangible experience through his business story and that’s what makes his story and business alive. Use of mythology, eulogy, metaphor, epic, fairytales and cartoons, permeated with humor and sudden twists is a winning recipe for a business story that captures attention. In the business case of the Greenesignit! Card game, (educational and brainstorming tool for development of sustainable products) we will demonstrate how an entrepreneur successfully used visual narrative to communicate his story and at the same time as a vehicle to transmute his message in learning tool and product development.

Keywords: animating narrative, entrepreneur, Greeneisgnit! card game, visual storytelling

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778 Stochastic Modeling and Productivity Analysis of a Flexible Manufacturing System

Authors: Mehmet Savsar, Majid Aldaihani

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Flexible Manufacturing Systems (FMS) are used to produce a variety of parts on the same equipment. Therefore, their utilization is higher than traditional machining systems. Higher utilization, on the other hand, results in more frequent equipment failures and additional need for maintenance. Therefore, it is necessary to carefully analyze operational characteristics and productivity of FMS or Flexible Manufacturing Cells (FMC), which are smaller configuration of FMS, before installation or during their operation. Appropriate models should be developed to determine production rates based on operational conditions, including equipment reliability, availability, and repair capacity. In this paper, a stochastic model is developed for an automated FMC system, which consists of two machines served by two robots and a single repairman. The model is used to determine system productivity and equipment utilization under different operational conditions, including random machine failures, random repairs, and limited repair capacity. The results are compared to previous study results for FMC system with sufficient repair capacity assigned to each machine. The results show that the model will be useful for design engineers and operational managers to analyze performance of manufacturing systems at the design or operational stages.

Keywords: flexible manufacturing, FMS, FMC, stochastic modeling, production rate, reliability, availability

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777 Relevance of Copyright and Trademark in the Gaming Industry

Authors: Deeksha Karunakar

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The gaming industry is one of the biggest industries in the world. Video games are interactive works of authorship that require the execution of a computer programme on specialized hardware but which also incorporate a wide variety of other artistic mediums, such as music, scripts, stories, video, paintings, and characters, into which the player takes an active role. Therefore, video games are not made as singular, simple works but rather as a collection of elements that, if they reach a certain level of originality and creativity, can each be copyrighted on their own. A video game is made up of a wide variety of parts, all of which combine to form the overall sensation that we, the players, have while playing. The entirety of the components is implemented in the form of software code, which is then translated into the game's user interface. Even while copyright protection is already in place for the coding of software, the work that is produced because of that coding can also be protected by copyright. This includes the game's storyline or narrative, its characters, and even elements of the code on their own. In each sector, there is a potential legal framework required, and the gaming industry also requires legal frameworks. This represents the importance of intellectual property laws in each sector. This paper will explore the beginnings of video games, the various aspects of game copyrights, and the approach of the courts, including examples of a few different instances. Although the creative arts have always been known to draw inspiration from and build upon the works of others, it has not always been simple to evaluate whether a game has been cloned. The video game business is experiencing growth as it has never seen before today. The majority of today's video games are both pieces of software and works of audio-visual art. Even though the existing legal framework does not have a clause specifically addressing video games, it is clear that there is a great many alternative means by which this protection can be granted. This paper will represent the importance of copyright and trademark laws in the gaming industry and its regulations with the help of relevant case laws via utilizing doctrinal methodology to support its findings. The aim of the paper is to make aware of the applicability of intellectual property laws in the gaming industry and how the justice system is evolving to adapt to such new industries. Furthermore, it will provide in-depth knowledge of their relationship with each other.

Keywords: copyright, DMCA, gaming industry, trademark, WIPO

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776 Democracy in Gaming: An Artificial Neural Network Based Approach towards Rule Evolution

Authors: Nelvin Joseph, K. Krishna Milan Rao, Praveen Dwarakanath

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The explosive growth of Smart phones around the world has led to the shift of the primary engagement tool for entertainment from traditional consoles and music players to an all integrated device. Augmented Reality is the next big shift in bringing in a new dimension to the play. The paper explores the construct and working of the community engine in Delta T – an Augmented Reality game that allows users to evolve rules in the game basis collective bargaining mirroring democracy even in a gaming world.

Keywords: augmented reality, artificial neural networks, mobile application, human computer interaction, community engine

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775 Analysis of Football Fans Perception of the Video Assistant Referee System

Authors: David Yartel, Johnmark Ampomah Mensah Fobi, Ernest Yeboah Acheampong, Sintim Musah

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Football has gone through a series of technological reforms targeted at improving the game for its audience. Yet, promote sanity of the game led to the introduction of the video assistant referee (VAR) to ‘check’ or ‘review’ an incident to clarify incidents and communicate the outcome to the referee and the fans. This is to reduce controversies regarding incidents on the pitch of play. In this study, we seek to survey the views of football fans to understand their perception of the video assistant referee, whether it has brought sanity or reduce the uncertainty regarding the decisions after reviews. The exploratory study focuses on 420 fans arbitrarily sampled on the university campuses to answer questionnaires based on the introduction of the video assistant referee. Results show that the VAR has interrupted the flow of the game, dropping passion, increased controversies including decisions from the referees’ call room leading to ensuing fans conflict, especially when it is against their team and vice versa. The study concludes by addressing some of their concerns as the VAR has come to minimise perceptions of incidents and engender fairness for teams.

Keywords: football fans, football incidents, football match, video assistant referee, technology

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774 Stochastic Multicast Routing Protocol for Flying Ad-Hoc Networks

Authors: Hyunsun Lee, Yi Zhu

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Wireless ad-hoc network is a decentralized type of temporary machine-to-machine connection that is spontaneous or impromptu so that it does not rely on any fixed infrastructure and centralized administration. As unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs), also called drones, have recently become more accessible and widely utilized in military and civilian domains such as surveillance, search and detection missions, traffic monitoring, remote filming, product delivery, to name a few. The communication between these UAVs become possible and materialized through Flying Ad-hoc Networks (FANETs). However, due to the high mobility of UAVs that may cause different types of transmission interference, it is vital to design robust routing protocols for FANETs. In this talk, the multicast routing method based on a modified stochastic branching process is proposed. The stochastic branching process is often used to describe an early stage of an infectious disease outbreak, and the reproductive number in the process is used to classify the outbreak into a major or minor outbreak. The reproductive number to regulate the local transmission rate is adapted and modified for flying ad-hoc network communication. The performance of the proposed routing method is compared with other well-known methods such as flooding method and gossip method based on three measures; average reachability, average node usage and average branching factor. The proposed routing method achieves average reachability very closer to flooding method, average node usage closer to gossip method, and outstanding average branching factor among methods. It can be concluded that the proposed multicast routing scheme is more efficient than well-known routing schemes such as flooding and gossip while it maintains high performance.

Keywords: Flying Ad-hoc Networks, Multicast Routing, Stochastic Branching Process, Unmanned Aerial Vehicles

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773 Study of Transport in Electronic Devices with Stochastic Monte Carlo Method: Modeling and Simulation along with Submicron Gate (Lg=0.5um)

Authors: N. Massoum, B. Bouazza

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In this paper, we have developed a numerical simulation model to describe the electrical properties of GaInP MESFET with submicron gate (Lg = 0.5 µm). This model takes into account the three-dimensional (3D) distribution of the load in the short channel and the law effect of mobility as a function of electric field. Simulation software based on a stochastic method such as Monte Carlo has been established. The results are discussed and compared with those of the experiment. The result suggests experimentally that, in a very small gate length in our devices (smaller than 40 nm), short-channel tunneling explains the degradation of transistor performance, which was previously enhanced by velocity overshoot.

Keywords: Monte Carlo simulation, transient electron transport, MESFET device, simulation software

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772 2D Hexagonal Cellular Automata: The Complexity of Forms

Authors: Vural Erdogan

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We created two-dimensional hexagonal cellular automata to obtain complexity by using simple rules same as Conway’s game of life. Considering the game of life rules, Wolfram's works about life-like structures and John von Neumann's self-replication, self-maintenance, self-reproduction problems, we developed 2-states and 3-states hexagonal growing algorithms that reach large populations through random initial states. Unlike the game of life, we used six neighbourhoods cellular automata instead of eight or four neighbourhoods. First simulations explained that whether we are able to obtain sort of oscillators, blinkers, and gliders. Inspired by Wolfram's 1D cellular automata complexity and life-like structures, we simulated 2D synchronous, discrete, deterministic cellular automata to reach life-like forms with 2-states cells. The life-like formations and the oscillators have been explained how they contribute to initiating self-maintenance together with self-reproduction and self-replication. After comparing simulation results, we decided to develop the algorithm for another step. Appending a new state to the same algorithm, which we used for reaching life-like structures, led us to experiment new branching and fractal forms. All these studies tried to demonstrate that complex life forms might come from uncomplicated rules.

Keywords: hexagonal cellular automata, self-replication, self-reproduction, self- maintenance

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771 'Violence Is Bad, but It's Just a Game': The Glorification of Violence from Roman Antiquity to Popular Culture

Authors: M. C. Steyn

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Violence and entertainment are not mutually exclusive subjects in the Ancient Roman world, in reality they are closely knit together. Their world is permeated by repeated and continuous episodes of violence in its many manifestations, both sanctioned and spontaneous, most of which is considered as some form of entertainment, from plays and writings through the spectrum to the gladiatorial arena. In the 21st century this socio-psychological dynamic is manifested through the stage provided by the screen and what we watch in terms of TV, movies and games. This glorification of violence in a modern world is not out of place as seen in contemporary post apocalyptical/ dystopian literature, film and computer games where the act of violence, frowned upon by social norms and values, becomes sanctioned by the (un)real nature of the game: ‘I am not a violent person, violence is bad, this is just a game’. This paper will examine how violence is framed in the Ancient World and subsequently how it is received by popular culture to represent a world in which the maintenance of stability can only be achieved through officially sanctioned violence, whether sanctioned by the State or the gaming community. This argument will examine both ancient and modern critics of violence such as Senecca, Coleman and Foucault and framed by Baudrillard’s commentary on the post-modern conceptualization of reality.

Keywords: entertainment, violence, gladiatorial games, gaming

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770 The Optimal Public Debt Ceiling in Taiwan: A Simulation Approach

Authors: Ho Yuan-Hong, Huang Chiung-Ju

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This study conducts simulation analyses to find the optimal debt ceiling of Taiwan, while factoring in welfare maximization under a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium framework. The simulation is based on Taiwan's 2001 to 2011 economic data and shows that welfare is maximized at a "debt"⁄"GDP" ratio of 0.2, increases in the "debt"⁄"GDP " ratio leads to increases in both tax and interest rates and decreases in the consumption ratio and working hours. The study results indicate that the optimal debt ceiling of Taiwan is 20% of GDP, where if the "debt"⁄"GDP" ratio is greater than 40%, the welfare will be negative and result in welfare loss.

Keywords: debt sustainability, optimal debt ceiling, dynamic stochastic general equilibrium, welfare maximization

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769 Approach-Avoidance and Intrinsic-Extrinsic Motivation of Adolescent Computer Games Players

Authors: Monika Paleczna, Barbara Szmigielska

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The period of adolescence is a time when young people are becoming more and more active and conscious users of the digital world. One of the most frequently undertaken activities by them is computer games. Young players can choose from a wide range of games, including action, adventure, strategy, and logic games. The main aim of this study is to answer the question about the motivation of teenage players. The basic question is what motivates young players to play computer games and what motivates them to play a particular game. Fifty adolescents aged 15-17 participated in the study. They completed a questionnaire in which they determined what motivates them to play, how often they play computer games, and what type of computer games they play most often. It was found that entertainment and learning English are among the most important motives. The most important specific features related to a given game are the knowledge of its previous parts and the ability to play for free. The motives chosen by the players will be described in relation to the concepts of internal and external as well as approach and avoidance motivation. An additional purpose of this study is to present data concerning preferences regarding the type of games and the amount of time they spend playing.

Keywords: computer games, motivation, game preferences, adolescence

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768 Deterministic and Stochastic Modeling of a Micro-Grid Management for Optimal Power Self-Consumption

Authors: D. Calogine, O. Chau, S. Dotti, O. Ramiarinjanahary, P. Rasoavonjy, F. Tovondahiniriko

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Mafate is a natural circus in the north-western part of Reunion Island, without an electrical grid and road network. A micro-grid concept is being experimented in this area, composed of a photovoltaic production combined with electrochemical batteries, in order to meet the local population for self-consumption of electricity demands. This work develops a discrete model as well as a stochastic model in order to reach an optimal equilibrium between production and consumptions for a cluster of houses. The management of the energy power leads to a large linearized programming system, where the time interval of interest is 24 hours The experimental data are solar production, storage energy, and the parameters of the different electrical devices and batteries. The unknown variables to evaluate are the consumptions of the various electrical services, the energy drawn from and stored in the batteries, and the inhabitants’ planning wishes. The objective is to fit the solar production to the electrical consumption of the inhabitants, with an optimal use of the energies in the batteries by satisfying as widely as possible the users' planning requirements. In the discrete model, the different parameters and solutions of the linear programming system are deterministic scalars. Whereas in the stochastic approach, the data parameters and the linear programming solutions become random variables, then the distributions of which could be imposed or established by estimation from samples of real observations or from samples of optimal discrete equilibrium solutions.

Keywords: photovoltaic production, power consumption, battery storage resources, random variables, stochastic modeling, estimations of probability distributions, mixed integer linear programming, smart micro-grid, self-consumption of electricity.

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767 A Stochastic Analytic Hierarchy Process Based Weighting Model for Sustainability Measurement in an Organization

Authors: Faramarz Khosravi, Gokhan Izbirak

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A weighted statistical stochastic based Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) model for modeling the potential barriers and enablers of sustainability for measuring and assessing the sustainability level is proposed. For context-dependent potential barriers and enablers, the proposed model takes the basis of the properties of the variables describing the sustainability functions and was developed into a realistic analytical model for the sustainable behavior of an organization. This thus serves as a means for measuring the sustainability of the organization. The main focus of this paper was the application of the AHP tool in a statistically-based model for measuring sustainability. Hence a strong weighted stochastic AHP based procedure was achieved. A case study scenario of a widely reported major Canadian electric utility was adopted to demonstrate the applicability of the developed model and comparatively examined its results with those of an equal-weighted model method. Variations in the sustainability of a company, as fluctuations, were figured out during the time. In the results obtained, sustainability index for successive years changed form 73.12%, 79.02%, 74.31%, 76.65%, 80.49%, 79.81%, 79.83% to more exact values 73.32%, 77.72%, 76.76%, 79.41%, 81.93%, 79.72%, and 80,45% according to priorities of factors that have found by expert views, respectively. By obtaining relatively necessary informative measurement indicators, the model can practically and effectively evaluate the sustainability extent of any organization and also to determine fluctuations in the organization over time.

Keywords: AHP, sustainability fluctuation, environmental indicators, performance measurement

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766 A Neural Network Approach to Understanding Turbulent Jet Formations

Authors: Nurul Bin Ibrahim

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Advancements in neural networks have offered valuable insights into Fluid Dynamics, notably in addressing turbulence-related challenges. In this research, we introduce multiple applications of models of neural networks, namely Feed-Forward and Recurrent Neural Networks, to explore the relationship between jet formations and stratified turbulence within stochastically excited Boussinesq systems. Using machine learning tools like TensorFlow and PyTorch, the study has created models that effectively mimic and show the underlying features of the complex patterns of jet formation and stratified turbulence. These models do more than just help us understand these patterns; they also offer a faster way to solve problems in stochastic systems, improving upon traditional numerical techniques to solve stochastic differential equations such as the Euler-Maruyama method. In addition, the research includes a thorough comparison with the Statistical State Dynamics (SSD) approach, which is a well-established method for studying chaotic systems. This comparison helps evaluate how well neural networks can help us understand the complex relationship between jet formations and stratified turbulence. The results of this study underscore the potential of neural networks in computational physics and fluid dynamics, opening up new possibilities for more efficient and accurate simulations in these fields.

Keywords: neural networks, machine learning, computational fluid dynamics, stochastic systems, simulation, stratified turbulence

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765 Teaching the Binary System via Beautiful Facts from the Real Life

Authors: Salem Ben Said

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In recent times the decimal number system to which we are accustomed has received serious competition from the binary number system. In this note, an approach is suggested to teaching and learning the binary number system using examples from the real world. More precisely, we will demonstrate the utility of the binary system in describing the optimal strategy to win the Chinese Nim game, and in telegraphy by decoding the hidden message on Perseverance’s Mars parachute written in the language of binary system. Finally, we will answer the question, “why do modern computers prefer the ternary number system instead of the binary system?”. All materials are provided in a format that is conductive to classroom presentation and discussion.

Keywords: binary number system, Nim game, telegraphy, computers prefer the ternary system

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764 Fast Estimation of Fractional Process Parameters in Rough Financial Models Using Artificial Intelligence

Authors: Dávid Kovács, Bálint Csanády, Dániel Boros, Iván Ivkovic, Lóránt Nagy, Dalma Tóth-Lakits, László Márkus, András Lukács

Abstract:

The modeling practice of financial instruments has seen significant change over the last decade due to the recognition of time-dependent and stochastically changing correlations among the market prices or the prices and market characteristics. To represent this phenomenon, the Stochastic Correlation Process (SCP) has come to the fore in the joint modeling of prices, offering a more nuanced description of their interdependence. This approach has allowed for the attainment of realistic tail dependencies, highlighting that prices tend to synchronize more during intense or volatile trading periods, resulting in stronger correlations. Evidence in statistical literature suggests that, similarly to the volatility, the SCP of certain stock prices follows rough paths, which can be described using fractional differential equations. However, estimating parameters for these equations often involves complex and computation-intensive algorithms, creating a necessity for alternative solutions. In this regard, the Fractional Ornstein-Uhlenbeck (fOU) process from the family of fractional processes offers a promising path. We can effectively describe the rough SCP by utilizing certain transformations of the fOU. We employed neural networks to understand the behavior of these processes. We had to develop a fast algorithm to generate a valid and suitably large sample from the appropriate process to train the network. With an extensive training set, the neural network can estimate the process parameters accurately and efficiently. Although the initial focus was the fOU, the resulting model displayed broader applicability, thus paving the way for further investigation of other processes in the realm of financial mathematics. The utility of SCP extends beyond its immediate application. It also serves as a springboard for a deeper exploration of fractional processes and for extending existing models that use ordinary Wiener processes to fractional scenarios. In essence, deploying both SCP and fractional processes in financial models provides new, more accurate ways to depict market dynamics.

Keywords: fractional Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process, fractional stochastic processes, Heston model, neural networks, stochastic correlation, stochastic differential equations, stochastic volatility

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763 Providing Emotional Support to Children under Long-Term Health Treatments

Authors: Ramón Cruzat, Sergio F. Ochoa, Ignacio Casas, Luis A. Guerrero, José Bravo

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Patients under health treatments that involve long stays at a hospital or health centre (e.g. cancer, organ transplants and severe burns), tend to get bored or depressed because of the lack of social interaction with family and friends. Such a situation also affects the evolution and effectiveness of their treatments. In many cases, the solution to this problem involves extra challenges, since many patients need to rest quietly (or remain in bed) to their being contagious. Considering the weak health condition in which usually are these kinds, keeping them motivated and quiet represents an important challenge for nurses and caregivers. This article presents a mobile ubiquitous game called MagicRace, which allows hospitalized kinds to interact socially with one another without putting to risk their sensitive health conditions. The game does not require a communication infrastructure at the hospital, but instead, it uses a mobile ad hoc network composed of the handheld devices used by the kids to play. The usability and performance of this application was tested in two different sessions. The preliminary results show that users experienced positive feelings from this experience.

Keywords: ubiquitous game, children's emotional support, social isolation, mobile collaborative interactions

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762 Official Game Account Analysis: Factors Influence Users' Judgments in Limited-Word Posts

Authors: Shanhua Hu

Abstract:

Social media as a critical propagandizing form of film, video games, and digital products has received substantial research attention, but there exists several critical barriers such as: (1) few studies exploring the internal and external connections of a product as part of the multimodal context that gives rise to readability and commercial return; (2) the lack of study of multimodal analysis in product’s official account of game publishers and its impact on users’ behaviors including purchase intention, social media engagement, and playing time; (3) no standardized ecologically-valid, game type-varying data can be used to study the complexity of official account’s postings within a time period. This proposed research helps to tackle these limitations in order to develop a model of readability study that is more ecologically valid, robust, and thorough. To accomplish this objective, this paper provides a more diverse dataset comprising different visual elements and messages collected from the official Twitter accounts of the Top 20 best-selling games of 2021. Video game companies target potential users through social media, a popular approach is to set up an official account to maintain exposure. Typically, major game publishers would create an official account on Twitter months before the game's release date to update on the game's development, announce collaborations, and reveal spoilers. Analyses of tweets from those official Twitter accounts would assist publishers and marketers in identifying how to efficiently and precisely deploy advertising to increase game sales. The purpose of this research is to determine how official game accounts use Twitter to attract new customers, specifically which types of messages are most effective at increasing sales. The dataset includes the number of days until the actual release date on Twitter posts, the readability of the post (Flesch Reading Ease Score, FRES), the number of emojis used, the number of hashtags, the number of followers of the mentioned users, the categorization of the posts (i.e., spoilers, collaborations, promotions), and the number of video views. The timeline of Twitter postings from official accounts will be compared to the history of pre-orders and sales figures to determine the potential impact of social media posts. This study aims to determine how the above-mentioned characteristics of official accounts' Twitter postings influence the sales of the game and to examine the possible causes of this influence. The outcome will provide researchers with a list of potential aspects that could influence people's judgments in limited-word posts. With the increased average online time, users would adapt more quickly than before in online information exchange and readings, such as the word to use sentence length, and the use of emojis or hashtags. The study on the promotion of official game accounts will not only enable publishers to create more effective promotion techniques in the future but also provide ideas for future research on the influence of social media posts with a limited number of words on consumers' purchasing decisions. Future research can focus on more specific linguistic aspects, such as precise word choice in advertising.

Keywords: engagement, official account, promotion, twitter, video game

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761 Evaluation of the Electric Vehicle Impact in Distribution System

Authors: Sania Maghsodloo, Sirus Mohammadi

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Electric Vehicle (EV) technology is expected to take a major share in the light-vehicle market in the coming decades. Transportation electrification has become an important issue in recent decades and the large scale deployment of EVs has yet to be achieved. The smart coordination of EV demand addresses an improvement in the flexibility of power systems and reduces the costs of power system investment. The uncertainty in EV drivers’ behaviour is one of the main problems to solve to obtain an optimal integration of EVs into power systems Charging of EVs will put an extra burden on the distribution grid and in some cases adjustments will need to be made. The stochastic process of the driving pattern is done to make the outcome of the project more realistic. Based on the stochastic data, the optimization of charging plans is made.

Keywords: electric vehicles (PEVs), smart grid, Monticello, distribution system

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760 Updating Stochastic Hosting Capacity Algorithm for Voltage Optimization Programs and Interconnect Standards

Authors: Nicholas Burica, Nina Selak

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The ADHCAT (Automated Distribution Hosting Capacity Assessment Tool) was designed to run Hosting Capacity Analysis on the ComEd system via a stochastic DER (Distributed Energy Resource) placement on multiple power flow simulations against a set of violation criteria. The violation criteria in the initial version of the tool captured a limited amount of issues that individual departments design against for DER interconnections. Enhancements were made to the tool to further align with individual department violation and operation criteria, as well as the addition of new modules for use for future load profile analysis. A reporting engine was created for future analytical use based on the simulations and observations in the tool.

Keywords: distributed energy resources, hosting capacity, interconnect, voltage optimization

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759 The Effects of Computer Game-Based Pedagogy on Graduate Students Statistics Performance

Authors: Clement Yeboah, Eva Laryea

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A pretest-posttest within subjects experimental design was employed to examine the effects of a computerized basic statistics learning game on achievement and statistics-related anxiety of students enrolled in introductory graduate statistics course. Participants (N = 34) were graduate students in a variety of programs at state-funded research university in the Southeast United States. We analyzed pre-test posttest differences using paired samples t-tests for achievement and for statistics anxiety. The results of the t-test for knowledge in statistics were found to be statistically significant, indicating significant mean gains for statistical knowledge as a function of the game-based intervention. Likewise, the results of the t-test for statistics-related anxiety were also statistically significant, indicating a decrease in anxiety from pretest to posttest. The implications of the present study are significant for both teachers and students. For teachers, using computer games developed by the researchers can help to create a more dynamic and engaging classroom environment, as well as improve student learning outcomes. For students, playing these educational games can help to develop important skills such as problem solving, critical thinking, and collaboration. Students can develop an interest in the subject matter and spend quality time to learn the course as they play the game without knowing that they are even learning the presupposed hard course. The future directions of the present study are promising as technology continues to advance and become more widely available. Some potential future developments include the integration of virtual and augmented reality into educational games, the use of machine learning and artificial intelligence to create personalized learning experiences, and the development of new and innovative game-based assessment tools. It is also important to consider the ethical implications of computer game-based pedagogy, such as the potential for games to perpetuate harmful stereotypes and biases. As the field continues to evolve, it will be crucial to address these issues and work towards creating inclusive and equitable learning experiences for all students. This study has the potential to revolutionize the way basic statistics graduate students learn and offers exciting opportunities for future development and research. It is an important area of inquiry for educators, researchers, and policymakers and will continue to be a dynamic and rapidly evolving field for years to come.

Keywords: pretest-posttest within subjects, computer game-based learning, statistics achievement, statistics anxiety

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758 Impact of Instructional Designing in Digital Game-Based Learning for Enhancing Students' Motivation

Authors: Shafaq Rubab

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The primary reason for dropping out of school is associated with students’ lack of motivation in class, especially in mathematics. Digital game-based learning is an approach that is being actively explored; there are very few learning games based on proven instructional design models or frameworks due to which the effectiveness of the learning games suffers. The purpose of this research was twofold: first, developing an appropriate instructional design model and second, evaluating the impact of the instructional design model on students’ motivation. This research contributes significantly to the existing literature in terms of student motivation and the impact of instructional design model in digital game-based learning. The sample size for this study consists of two hundred out-of-school students between the age of 6 and 12 years. The research methodology used for this research was a quasi-experimental approach and data was analyzed by using the instructional material motivational survey questionnaire which is adapted from the Keller Arcs model. Control and experimental groups consisting of two hundred students were analyzed by utilizing instructional material motivational survey (IMMS), and comparison of result from both groups showed the difference in the level of motivation of the students. The result of the research showed that the motivational level of student in the experimental group who were taught by the game was higher than the student in control group (taught by conventional methodology). The mean score of the experimental group against all subscales (attention, relevance, confidence, and satisfaction) of IMMS survey was higher; however, no statistical significance was found between the motivational scores of control and experimental group. The positive impact of game-based learning on students’ level of motivation, as measured in this study, strengthens the case for the use of pedagogically sound instructional design models in the design of interactive learning applications. In addition, the present study suggests learning from interactive, immersive applications as an alternative solution for children, especially in Third World countries, who, for various reasons, do not attend school. The mean score of experimental group against all subscales of IMMS survey was higher; however, no statistical significance was found between motivational scores of control and experimental group.

Keywords: digital game-based learning, students’ motivation, and instructional designing, instructional material motivational survey

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757 A Hierarchical Bayesian Calibration of Data-Driven Models for Composite Laminate Consolidation

Authors: Nikolaos Papadimas, Joanna Bennett, Amir Sakhaei, Timothy Dodwell

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Composite modeling of consolidation processes is playing an important role in the process and part design by indicating the formation of possible unwanted prior to expensive experimental iterative trial and development programs. Composite materials in their uncured state display complex constitutive behavior, which has received much academic interest, and this with different models proposed. Errors from modeling and statistical which arise from this fitting will propagate through any simulation in which the material model is used. A general hyperelastic polynomial representation was proposed, which can be readily implemented in various nonlinear finite element packages. In our case, FEniCS was chosen. The coefficients are assumed uncertain, and therefore the distribution of parameters learned using Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods. In engineering, the approach often followed is to select a single set of model parameters, which on average, best fits a set of experiments. There are good statistical reasons why this is not a rigorous approach to take. To overcome these challenges, A hierarchical Bayesian framework was proposed in which population distribution of model parameters is inferred from an ensemble of experiments tests. The resulting sampled distribution of hyperparameters is approximated using Maximum Entropy methods so that the distribution of samples can be readily sampled when embedded within a stochastic finite element simulation. The methodology is validated and demonstrated on a set of consolidation experiments of AS4/8852 with various stacking sequences. The resulting distributions are then applied to stochastic finite element simulations of the consolidation of curved parts, leading to a distribution of possible model outputs. With this, the paper, as far as the authors are aware, represents the first stochastic finite element implementation in composite process modelling.

Keywords: data-driven , material consolidation, stochastic finite elements, surrogate models

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756 An ICF Framework for Game-Based Experiences in Geriatric Care

Authors: Marlene Rosa, Susana Lopes

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Board games have been used for different purposes in geriatric care, demonstrating good results for health in general. However, there is not a conceptual framework that can help professionals and researchers in this area to design intervention programs or to think about future studies in this area. The aim of this study was to provide a pilot collection of board games’ serious purposes in geriatric care, using a WHO framework for health and disability. Study cases were developed in seven geriatric residential institutions from the center region in Portugal that are included in AGILAB program. The AGILAB program is a serious game-based method to train and spread out the implementation of board games in geriatric care. Each institution provides 2-hours/week of experiences using TATI Hand Game for serious purposes and then fulfill questions about a study-case (player characteristics; explain changes in players health according to this game experience). Two independent researchers read the information and classified it according to the International Classification for Functioning and Disability (ICF) categories. Any discrepancy was solved in a consensus meeting. Results indicate an important variability in body functions and structures: specific mental functions (e.g., b140 Attention functions, b144 Memory functions), b156 Perceptual functions, b2 sensory functions and pain (e.g., b230 Hearing functions; b265 Touch function; b280 Sensation of pain), b7 neuromusculoskeletal and movement-related functions (e.g., b730 Muscle power functions; b760 Control of voluntary movement functions; b710 Mobility of joint functions). Less variability was found in activities and participation domains, such as purposeful sensory experiences (d110-d129) (e.g., d115 Listening), communication (d3), d710 basic interpersonal interactions, d920 recreation and leisure (d9200 Play; d9205 Socializing). Concluding, this framework designed from a brief gamed-based experience includes mental, perceptual, sensory, neuromusculoskeletal, and movement-related functions and participation in sensory, communication, and leisure domains. More studies, including different experiences and a high number of users, should be developed to provide a more comprehensive ICF framework for game-based experiences in geriatric care.

Keywords: board game, aging, framework, experience

Procedia PDF Downloads 100