Search results for: stochastic diffusion process

Authors: Chyi Jaw

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Prior literature on innovation diffusion or acceptance has almost exclusively concentrated on consumers’ positive attitudes and behaviors for new products/services. Consumers’ negative attitudes or behaviors to innovations have received relatively little marketing attention, but it happens frequently in practice. This study discusses consumer psychological factors when they try to learn or use new technologies. According to recent research, technological innovation acceptance has been considered as a dynamic or mediated process. This research argues that consumers can experience inertia and emotions in the initial use of new technologies. However, given such consumer psychology, the argument can be made as to whether the inclusion of consumer inertia (routine seeking and cognitive rigidity) and emotions increases the predictive power of new technology acceptance model. As data from the empirical study find, the process is potentially consumer emotion changing (independent of performance benefits) because of technology complexity and consumer inertia, and impact innovative technology use significantly. Finally, the study presents the superior predictability of the hypothesized model, which let managers can better predict and influence the successful diffusion of complex technological innovations.

Keywords: cognitive rigidity, consumer emotions, new technology acceptance, routine seeking, technology complexity

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Authors: Boukhatem Mohamed Nadjib, Ferhat Mohamed Amine

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Essential Oils (EO) produced by medicinal plants have been traditionally used for respiratory tract infections and are used nowadays as ethical medicines for colds. The aim of this study was to test the efficacy of the Algerian EGEO against some respiratory tract pathogens by disc diffusion and vapour diffusion methods at different concentrations. The chemical composition of the EGEO was analysed by Gas Chromatography-Mass Spectrometry. Fresh leaves of E. globulus on steam distillation yielded 0.96% (v/w) of essential oil whereas the analysis resulted in the identification of a total of 11 constituents, 1.8 cineole (85.8%), α-pinene (7.2%) and β-myrcene (1.5%) being the main components. By disc diffusion method, EGEO showed potent antimicrobial activity against Gram-positive more than Gram-negative bacteria. The Diameter of Inhibition Zone (DIZ) varied from 69 mm to 75 mm for Staphylococcus aureus and Bacillus subtilis (Gram +) and from 13 to 42 mm for Enterobacter sp and Escherichia coli (Gram-), respectively. However, the results obtained by both agar diffusion and vapour diffusion methods were different. Significantly higher antibacterial activity was observed in the vapour phase at lower concentrations. A. baumanii and Klebsiella pneumoniae were the most susceptible strains to the oil vapour with DIZ varied from 38 to 42 mm. Therefore, smaller doses of EO in the vapour phase can be inhibitory to pathogenic bacteria. Else, the DIZ increased with increase in the concentration of the oil. There is growing evidence that EGEO in the vapour phase are effective antibacterial systems and appears worthy to be considered for practical uses in the treatment or prevention of patients with respiratory tract infections or as air decontaminants in the hospital. The present study indicates that EGEO has considerable antimicrobial activity, deserving further investigation for clinical applications.

Keywords: eucalyptus globulus, essential oils, respiratory tract pathogens, antimicrobial activity, vapour phase

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Authors: Ana Clara Santos, Maria Manuela Portela, Bettina Schaefli

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This work assesses the performance of an analytical model framework to generate daily flow duration curves, FDCs, based on climatic characteristics of the catchments and on their streamflow recession coefficients. According to the analytical model framework, precipitation is considered to be a stochastic process, modeled as a marked Poisson process, and recession is considered to be deterministic, with parameters that can be computed based on different models. The analytical model framework was tested for three case studies with different hydrological regimes located in Switzerland: pluvial, snow-dominated and glacier. For that purpose, five time intervals were analyzed (the four meteorological seasons and the civil year) and two developments of the model were tested: one considering a linear recession model and the other adopting a nonlinear recession model. Those developments were combined with recession coefficients obtained from two different approaches: forward and inverse estimation. The performance of the analytical framework when considering forward parameter estimation is poor in comparison with the inverse estimation for both, linear and nonlinear models. For the pluvial catchment, the inverse estimation shows exceptional good results, especially for the nonlinear model, clearing suggesting that the model has the ability to describe FDCs. For the snow-dominated and glacier catchments the seasonal results are better than the annual ones suggesting that the model can describe streamflows in those conditions and that future efforts should focus on improving and combining seasonal curves instead of considering single annual ones.

Keywords: analytical streamflow distribution, stochastic process, linear and non-linear recession, hydrological modelling, daily discharges

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Authors: Mohanad Al-Behadili, Djamila Ouelhadj

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In this paper, a specific type of vehicle routing problem under stochastic demand (SVRP) is considered. This problem is of great importance because it models for many of the real world vehicle routing applications. This paper used a robust optimisation model to solve the problem along with the novel Simulation-Particle Swarm Optimisation (Sim-PSO) approach. The proposed Sim-PSO approach is based on the hybridization of the Monte Carlo simulation technique with the PSO algorithm. A comparative study between the proposed model and the Sim-PSO approach against other solution methods in the literature has been given in this paper. This comparison including the Analysis of Variance (ANOVA) to show the ability of the model and solution method in solving the complicated SVRP. The experimental results show that the proposed model and Sim-PSO approach has a significant impact on the obtained solution by providing better quality solutions comparing with well-known algorithms in the literature.

Keywords: stochastic vehicle routing problem, robust optimisation model, Monte Carlo simulation, particle swarm optimisation

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Authors: Syed Toqueer Akhter, Muhammad Awais

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Pakistan is a country which is gifted by naturally abundant resources these resources are a pioneer towards a prospect and developed country. Pakistan is the fourth largest exporter of the textile in the world and with the passage of time the competitiveness of these exports is subject to a decline. With a lot of International players in the textile world like China, Bangladesh, India, and Sri Lanka, Pakistan needs to put up a lot of effort to compete with these countries. This research paper would determine the impact of Foreign Direct Investment upon technological diffusion and that how significantly it may be affecting on export performance of the country. It would also demonstrate that with the increase in Foreign Direct Investment, technological diffusion, strong property rights, and using different policy tools, export competitiveness of the country could be improved. The research has been carried out using time series data from 1995 to 2013 and the results have been estimated by using competing Econometrics modes such as Robust regression and Generalized least squares so that to consolidate the impact of the Foreign Investments and Technological diffusion upon export competitiveness comprehensively. Distributed Lag model has also been used to encompass the lagged effect of policy tools variables used by the government. Model estimates entail that 'FDI' and 'Technological Diffusion' do have a significant impact on the competitiveness of the exports of Pakistan. It may also be inferred that competitiveness of Textile Sector requires integrated policy framework, primarily including the reduction in interest rates, providing subsides, and manufacturing of value added products.

Keywords: high technology export, robust regression, patents, technological diffusion, export competitiveness

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Authors: Jyh-Yang Wu, Sheng-Gwo Chen

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In this paper, we present a simple effective numerical geometric method to estimate the divergence of a vector field over a curved surface. The conservation law is an important principle in physics and mathematics. However, many well-known numerical methods for solving diffusion equations do not obey conservation laws. Our presented method in this paper combines the divergence theorem with a generalized finite difference method and obeys the conservation law on discrete closed surfaces. We use the similar method to solve the Cahn-Hilliard equations on evolving spherical surfaces and observe stability results in our numerical simulations.

Keywords: conservation laws, diffusion equations, Cahn-Hilliard equations, evolving surfaces

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Authors: Sardorbek Numonov, Hyohun Kim, Dongwha Shin, Yeonseok Kim, Ji-Su Ahn, Dongeun Choi, Byung-Woo Hong

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The detection of curvilinear structures often plays an important role in the analysis of images. In particular, it is considered as a crucial step for the diagnosis of chronic respiratory diseases to localize the fissures in chest CT imagery where the lung is divided into five lobes by the fissures that are characterized by linear features in appearance. However, the characteristic linear features for the fissures are often shown to be subtle due to the high intensity variability, pathological deformation or image noise involved in the imaging procedure, which leads to the uncertainty in the quantification of anatomical or functional properties of the lung. Thus, it is desired to enhance the linear features present in the chest CT images so that the distinctiveness in the delineation of the lobe is improved. We propose a recursive diffusion process that prefers coherent features based on the analysis of structure tensor in an anisotropic manner. The local image features associated with certain scales and directions can be characterized by the eigenanalysis of the structure tensor that is often regularized via isotropic diffusion filters. However, the isotropic diffusion filters involved in the computation of the structure tensor generally blur geometrically significant structure of the features leading to the degradation of the characteristic power in the feature space. Thus, it is required to take into consideration of local structure of the feature in scale and direction when computing the structure tensor. We apply an anisotropic diffusion in consideration of scale and direction of the features in the computation of the structure tensor that subsequently provides the geometrical structure of the features by its eigenanalysis that determines the shape of the anisotropic diffusion kernel. The recursive application of the anisotropic diffusion with the kernel the shape of which is derived from the structure tensor leading to the anisotropic scale-space where the geometrical features are preserved via the eigenanalysis of the structure tensor computed from the diffused image. The recursive interaction between the anisotropic diffusion based on the geometry-driven kernels and the computation of the structure tensor that determines the shape of the diffusion kernels yields a scale-space where geometrical properties of the image structure are effectively characterized. We apply our recursive anisotropic diffusion algorithm to the detection of curvilinear structure in the chest CT imagery where the fissures present curvilinear features and define the boundary of lobes. It is shown that our algorithm yields precise detection of the fissures while overcoming the subtlety in defining the characteristic linear features. The quantitative evaluation demonstrates the robustness and effectiveness of the proposed algorithm for the detection of fissures in the chest CT in terms of the false positive and the true positive measures. The receiver operating characteristic curves indicate the potential of our algorithm as a segmentation tool in the clinical environment. This work was supported by the MISP(Ministry of Science and ICT), Korea, under the National Program for Excellence in SW (20170001000011001) supervised by the IITP(Institute for Information and Communications Technology Promotion).

Keywords: anisotropic diffusion, chest CT imagery, chronic respiratory disease, curvilinear structure, fissure detection, structure tensor

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Authors: Anuruddha Jayasuriya, Thanakorn Pheeraphan

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In this paper, a review of different mathematical models which can be used as prediction tools to assess the time to crack reinforced concrete (RC) due to corrosion is investigated. This investigation leads to an experimental study to validate a selected prediction model. Most of these mathematical models depend upon the mechanical behaviors, chemical behaviors, electrochemical behaviors or geometric aspects of the RC members during a corrosion process. The experimental program is designed to verify the accuracy of a well-selected mathematical model from a rigorous literature study. Fundamentally, the experimental program exemplifies both one-dimensional chloride diffusion using RC squared slab elements of 500 mm by 500 mm and two-dimensional chloride diffusion using RC squared column elements of 225 mm by 225 mm by 500 mm. Each set consists of three water-to-cement ratios (w/c); 0.4, 0.5, 0.6 and two cover depths; 25 mm and 50 mm. 12 mm bars are used for column elements and 16 mm bars are used for slab elements. All the samples are subjected to accelerated chloride corrosion in a chloride bath of 5% (w/w) sodium chloride (NaCl) solution. Based on a pre-screening of different models, it is clear that the well-selected mathematical model had included mechanical properties, chemical and electrochemical properties, nature of corrosion whether it is accelerated or natural, and the amount of porous area that rust products can accommodate before exerting expansive pressure on the surrounding concrete. The experimental results have shown that the selected model for both one-dimensional and two-dimensional chloride diffusion had ±20% and ±10% respective accuracies compared to the experimental output. The half-cell potential readings are also used to see the corrosion probability, and experimental results have shown that the mass loss is proportional to the negative half-cell potential readings that are obtained. Additionally, a statistical analysis is carried out in order to determine the most influential factor that affects the time to corrode the reinforcement in the concrete due to chloride diffusion. The factors considered for this analysis are w/c, bar diameter, and cover depth. The analysis is accomplished by using Minitab statistical software, and it showed that cover depth is the significant effect on the time to crack the concrete from chloride induced corrosion than other factors considered. Thus, the time predictions can be illustrated through the selected mathematical model as it covers a wide range of factors affecting the corrosion process, and it can be used to predetermine the durability concern of RC structures that are vulnerable to chloride exposure. And eventually, it is further concluded that cover thickness plays a vital role in durability in terms of chloride diffusion.

Keywords: accelerated corrosion, chloride diffusion, corrosion cracks, passivation layer, reinforcement corrosion

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Authors: Kritika Bansal, Akwinder Kaur, Shruti Gujral

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In this paper, the approach of denoising is solved by using a new hybrid technique which associates the different denoising methods. Wavelet thresholding and anisotropic diffusion filter are the two different filters in our hybrid techniques. The Wavelet thresholding removes the noise by removing the high frequency components with lesser edge preservation, whereas an anisotropic diffusion filters is based on partial differential equation, (PDE) to remove the speckle noise. This PDE approach is used to preserve the edges and provides better smoothing. So our new method proposes a combination of these two filtering methods which performs better results in terms of peak signal to noise ratio (PSNR), coefficient of correlation (COC) and equivalent no of looks (ENL).

Keywords: denoising, anisotropic diffusion filter, multiplicative noise, speckle, wavelets

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Authors: Vinayak Bassi, Rajpreet Singh

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Over the years, with the emergence of sophisticated computers and algorithms, finance has been quantified using computational prowess. Asset valuation has been one of the key components of quantitative finance. In fact, it has become one of the embryonic steps in determining risk related to a portfolio, the main goal of quantitative finance. This study comprises a drawing comparison between valuation output generated by two stochastic dynamic models, namely Black-Scholes and Dupire’s bi-dimensionality model. Both of these models are formulated for computing the valuation function for a portfolio of European options using Monte Carlo simulation methods. Although Monte Carlo algorithms have a slower convergence rate than calculus-based simulation techniques (like FDM), they work quite effectively over high-dimensional dynamic models. A fidelity gap is analyzed between the static (historical) and stochastic inputs for a sample portfolio of underlying assets. In order to enhance the performance efficiency of the model, the study emphasized the use of variable reduction methods and customizing random number generators to implement parallelization. An attempt has been made to further implement the Dupire’s model on a GPU to achieve higher computational performance. Furthermore, ideas have been discussed around the performance enhancement and bottleneck identification related to the implementation of options-pricing models on GPUs.

Keywords: monte carlo, stochastic models, computational finance, parallel programming, scientific computing

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Authors: Evln Ranga Charyulu, S. P. Venu Madhavarao, S. Udaya kumar, S. V. S. S. N. V. G. Krishna Murthy

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With the advent of new nanometer process technologies, it is possible to integrate billion transistors on a single substrate. When more and more functionality included there is the possibility of multi-million transistors switching simultaneously consuming more power and dissipating more power along with more leakage of current into the substrate of porous silicon or germanium material. These results in substrate heating and thermal noise generation coupled to signals of interest. The heating process is represented by coupled nonlinear partial differential equations in porous silicon and germanium. By identifying heat sources and heat fluxes may results in designing of ultra-low power circuits. The PDEs are solved by finite difference scheme assuming that boundary layer equations in porous silicon and germanium. Local heat fluxes along the vertical isothermal surface immersed in porous SI/Ge are considered. The parameters considered for optimization are thermal diffusivity, thermal expansion coefficient, thermal diffusion ratio, permeability, specific heat at constant temperatures, Rayleigh number, amplitude of wavy surface, mass expansion coefficient. The diffusion of heat was caused by the concentration gradient. Thermal physical properties are homogeneous and isotropic. By using L8, TAGUCHI method the parameters are optimized.

Keywords: heat transfer, pde, taguchi optimization, SI/Ge

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Authors: Nikolaos Mamalis

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The work of the eminent architect and composer has undoubtedly been influenced both by his architecture and collaboration with Le Corbusier and by the conquests of the musical avant-garde of the 20th century (Schoenberg, Messian, Bartock, electroacoustic music). It is known that the golden mean and the Fibonacci sequence played a momentous role in the Architectural Avant-garde (Modulor) and expanded on musical pursuits. Especially in the 50s (serialism), it was a structural tool for composition. Xenakis' architectural and musical work (Sacrifice, Metastasis, Rebonds, etc.) received the influence of the Golden Section, as has been repeatedly demonstrated. However, the idea of this retrospective sequence and the reflection raised by the search for new proportions, both in the architectural and the musical work of Xenakis, was not limited to constituting a step, a workable formula that acted unifyingly with regard to the other parameters of the musical work, or as an aesthetic model that makes sense - philosophically and poetically - an anthropocentric dimension as in other composers (see Luigi Nono) ̇ triggered a qualitative leap, an opening of the composer to the assimilation of mathematical concepts and scientific types in music and the consolidation of new sound horizons of stochastic music.

Keywords: golden ratio, music, space, stochastic music

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Authors: Eloise C. Tredenick, Troy W. Farrell, W. Alison Forster, Steven T. P. Psaltis

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The agriculture industry requires improved efficacy of sprays being applied to crops. More efficacious sprays provide many environmental and financial benefits. The plant leaf cuticle is known to be the main barrier to diffusion of agrochemicals within the leaf. The importance of a mathematical model to simulate uptake of agrochemicals in plant cuticles has been noted, as the results of each uptake experiments are specific to each formulation of active ingredient and plant species. In this work we develop a mathematical model and numerical simulation for the uptake of ionic agrochemicals through aqueous pores in plant cuticles. We propose a nonlinear porous diffusion model of ionic agrochemicals in isolated cuticles, which provides additions to a simple diffusion model through the incorporation of parameters capable of simulating plant species' variations, evaporation of surface droplet solutions and swelling of the aqueous pores with water. The model could feasibly be adapted to other ionic active ingredients diffusing through other plant species' cuticles. We validate our theoretical results against appropriate experimental data, discuss the key sensitivities in the model and relate theoretical predictions to appropriate physical mechanisms.

Keywords: aqueous pores, ionic active ingredient, mathematical model, plant cuticle, porous diffusion

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Authors: Mohammad Mahdi Paydar, Armin Cheraghalipour, Mostafa Hajiaghaei-Keshteli

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Nowadays, in advanced countries, agriculture as one of the most significant sectors of the economy, plays an important role in its political and economic independence. Due to farmers' lack of information about products' demand and lack of proper planning for harvest time, annually the considerable amount of products is corrupted. Besides, in this paper, we attempt to improve these unfavorable conditions via designing an effective supply chain network that tries to minimize total costs of agricultural products along with minimizing shortage in demand points. To validate the proposed model, a stochastic optimization approach by using a branch and bound solver of the LINGO software is utilized. Furthermore, to accumulate the data of parameters, a case study in Mazandaran province placed in the north of Iran has been applied. Finally, using ɛ-constraint approach, a Pareto front is obtained and one of its Pareto solutions as best solution is selected. Then, related results of this solution are explained. Finally, conclusions and suggestions for the future research are presented.

Keywords: perishable products, stochastic optimization, agricultural supply chain, ɛ-constraint

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Authors: Petronella Jonck, Freda van der Walt

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Despite the benefits of innovation diffusion in the South African public service, implementation thereof seems to be problematic, particularly with regard to e-governance which would enhance the quality of service delivery, especially accessibility, choice, and mode of operation. This paper reports on differences between the public service and the private sector in terms of innovation diffusion. Innovation diffusion will be investigated to explore identified obstacles that are hindering successful implementation of e-governance. The research inquiry is underpinned by the diffusion of innovation theory, which is premised on the assumption that innovation has a distinct channel, time, and mode of adoption within the organisation. A comparative thematic document analysis was conducted to investigate organisational differences with regard to innovation diffusion. A similar approach has been followed in other countries, where the same conceptual framework has been used to guide document analysis in studies in both the private and the public sectors. As per the recommended conceptual framework, three organisational characteristics were emphasised, namely the external characteristics of the organisation, the organisational structure, and the inherent characteristics of the leadership. The results indicated that the main difference in the external characteristics lies in the focus and the clientele of the private sector. With regard to organisational structure, private organisations have veto power, which is not the case in the public service. Regarding leadership, similarities were observed in social and environmental responsibility and employees’ attitudes towards immediate supervision. Differences identified included risk taking, the adequacy of leadership development, organisational approaches to motivation and involvement in decision making, and leadership style. Due to the organisational differences observed, it is recommended that differentiated strategies be employed to ensure effective innovation diffusion, and ultimately e-governance. It is recommended that the results of this research be used to stimulate discussion on ways to improve collaboration between the mentioned sectors, to capitalise on the benefits of each sector.

Keywords: E-governance, ICT, innovation diffusion, comparative analysis

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Authors: Mounir Kehal

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The post-globalization epoch has placed businesses everywhere in new and different competitive situations where knowledgeable, effective and efficient behavior has come to provide the competitive and comparative edge. Enterprises have turned to explicit - and even conceptualizing on tacit - knowledge management to elaborate a systematic approach to develop and sustain the intellectual capital needed to succeed. To be able to do that, you have to be able to visualize your organization as consisting of nothing but knowledge and knowledge flows, whilst being presented in a graphical and visual framework, referred to as automated organizational cartography. Hence, creating the ability of further actively classifying existing organizational content evolving from and within data feeds, in an algorithmic manner, potentially giving insightful schemes and dynamics by which organizational know-how is visualized. It is discussed and elaborated on most recent and applicable definitions and classifications of knowledge management, representing a wide range of views from mechanistic (systematic, data driven) to a more socially (psychologically, cognitive/metadata driven) orientated. More elaborate continuum models, for knowledge acquisition and reasoning purposes, are being used for effectively representing the domain of information that an end user may contain in their decision making process for utilization of available organizational intellectual resources (i.e. Autocart). In this paper, we present an empirical research study conducted previously to try and explore knowledge diffusion in a specialist knowledge domain.

Keywords: knowledge management, knowledge maps, knowledge diffusion, organizational cartography

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Authors: Thee Chowwanonthapunya, Junhua Dong, Wei Ke

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The atmospheres in many cities along the coastal lines in the world have been rapidly changed to coastal-industrial atmosphere. Hence, it is vital to investigate the corrosion behavior of steel exposed to this kind of environment. In this present study, Electrochemical Impedance Spectrography (EIS) and film thickness measurements were applied to monitor the corrosion behavior of weathering steel covered with a thin layer of the electrolyte in a wet-dry cyclic condition, simulating a coastal-industrial environment at 25 oC and 60 % RH. The results indicate that in all cycles, the corrosion rate increases during the drying process due to an increase in anion concentration and an acceleration of oxygen diffusion enhanced by the effect of the thinning out of the electrolyte. During the wet-dry cyclic corrosion test, the long-term corrosion behavior of this steel depends on the periods of exposure. Corrosion process is first accelerated and then decelerated. The decelerating corrosion process is contributed to the formation of the protective rust, favored by the wet-dry cycle and the acid regeneration process during the rusting process.

Keywords: atmospheric corrosion, EIS, low alloy, rust

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Authors: Pawan Kumar Sharma, Sudhakar Dwivedi, R. K. Arora

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Saffron is one of the most precious spices grown on the earth and is cultivated in a very limited area in few countries of the world. It has also been grown as a niche crop in Kishtwar district of Jammu region of Jammu and Kashmir State of India. This paper attempts to examine the presence of cost inefficiencies in saffron production and the associated socio-economic characteristics of saffron growers in the mentioned area. Although the numbers of inputs used in cultivation of saffron were limited, still cost inefficiencies were present in its production. The net present value (NPV), internal rate of return (IRR) and profitability index (PI) of investment in five years of saffron production were INR 1120803, 95.67 % and 3.52 respectively. The estimated coefficients of saffron stochastic cost function for saffron bulbs, human labour, animal labour, manure and saffron output were positive. The saffron growers having non-farm income were more cost inefficient as compared to farmers who did not have sources of income other than farming by 0.04 %. The maximum value of cost efficiency for saffron grower was 1.69 with mean value of 1.12. The majority of farmers have low cost inefficiencies, as the highest frequency of occurrence of the predicted cost efficiency was below 1.06.

Keywords: saffron, internal rate of return, cost efficiency, stochastic frontier model

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Authors: Reza Zakerinejad

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Gully erosion is a serious problem that threading the sustainability of agricultural area and rangeland and water in a large part of Iran. This type of water erosion is the main source of sedimentation in many catchment areas in the north of Iran. Since in many national assessment approaches just qualitative models were applied the aim of this study is to predict the spatial distribution of gully erosion processes by means of detail terrain analysis and GIS -based logistic regression in the loess deposition in a case study in the Golestan Province. This study the DEM with 25 meter result ion from ASTER data has been used. The Landsat ETM data have been used to mapping of land use. The TreeNet model as a stochastic modeling was applied to prediction the susceptible area for gully erosion. In this model ROC we have set 20 % of data as learning and 20 % as learning data. Therefore, applying the GIS and satellite image analysis techniques has been used to derive the input information for these stochastic models. The result of this study showed a high accurate map of potential for gully erosion.

Keywords: TreeNet model, terrain analysis, Golestan Province, Iran

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Authors: Hatem Mrad, Alban Notin, Mohamed Bouazara

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Sheet metal forming process has a multiple successive steps starting from sheets fixation to sheets evacuation. Often after forming operation, the sheet has defects requiring additional corrections steps. For example, in the drawing process, the formed sheet may have several defects such as springback, localized thinning and bends. All these defects are directly dependent on process, geometric and material parameters. The prediction and elimination of these defects requires the control of most sensitive parameters. The present study is concerned with a reliable parametric study of deep forming process in order to control the localized thinning. The proposed approach will be based on stochastic finite element method. Especially, the polynomial Chaos development will be used to establish a reliable relationship between input (process, geometric and material parameters) and output variables (sheet thickness). The commercial software Abaqus is used to conduct numerical finite elements simulations. The automatized parametrical modification is provided by coupling a FORTRAN routine, a PYTHON script and input Abaqus files.

Keywords: sheet metal forming, reliability, localized thinning, parametric simulation

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Authors: André Python

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To this day, terrorism persists as a worldwide threat, exemplified by the recent deadly attacks in January 2015 in Paris and the ongoing massacres perpetrated by ISIS in Iraq and Syria. In response to this threat, states deploy various counterterrorism measures, the cost of which could be reduced through effective preventive measures. In order to increase the efficiency of preventive measures, policy-makers may benefit from accurate predictive models that are able to capture the complex spatial dynamics of terrorism occurring at a local scale. Despite empirical research carried out at country-level that has confirmed theories explaining the diffusion processes of terrorism across space and time, scholars have failed to assess diffusion’s theories on a local scale. Moreover, since scholars have not made the most of recent statistical modelling approaches, they have been unable to build up predictive models accurate in both space and time. In an effort to address these shortcomings, this research suggests a novel approach to systematically assess the theories of terrorism’s diffusion on a local scale and provide a predictive model of the local spatial dynamics of terrorism worldwide. With a focus on the lethal terrorist events that occurred after 9/11, this paper addresses the following question: why and how does lethal terrorism diffuse in space and time? Based on geolocalised data on worldwide terrorist attacks and covariates gathered from 2002 to 2013, a binomial spatio-temporal point process is used to model the probability of terrorist attacks on a sphere (the world), the surface of which is discretised in the form of Delaunay triangles and refined in areas of specific interest. Within a Bayesian framework, the model is fitted through an integrated nested Laplace approximation - a recent fitting approach that computes fast and accurate estimates of posterior marginals. Hence, for each location in the world, the model provides a probability of encountering a lethal terrorist attack and measures of volatility, which inform on the model’s predictability. Diffusion processes are visualised through interactive maps that highlight space-time variations in the probability and volatility of encountering a lethal attack from 2002 to 2013. Based on the previous twelve years of observation, the location and lethality of terrorist events in 2014 are statistically accurately predicted. Throughout the global scope of this research, local diffusion processes such as escalation and relocation are systematically examined: the former process describes an expansion from high concentration areas of lethal terrorist events (hotspots) to neighbouring areas, while the latter is characterised by changes in the location of hotspots. By controlling for the effect of geographical, economical and demographic variables, the results of the model suggest that the diffusion processes of lethal terrorism are jointly driven by contagious and non-contagious factors that operate on a local scale – as predicted by theories of diffusion. Moreover, by providing a quantitative measure of predictability, the model prevents policy-makers from making decisions based on highly uncertain predictions. Ultimately, this research may provide important complementary tools to enhance the efficiency of policies that aim to prevent and combat terrorism.

Keywords: diffusion process, terrorism, spatial dynamics, spatio-temporal modeling

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Authors: Phanida Phukoetphim, Asaad Y. Shamseldin

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In this study, the novel Stochastic Gradient Boosting (SGB) combination method is addressed for producing daily river flows from four different rain-runoff models of Ohinemuri catchment, New Zealand. The selected rainfall-runoff models are two empirical black-box models: linear perturbation model and linear varying gain factor model, two conceptual models: soil moisture accounting and routing model and Nedbør-Afrstrømnings model. In this study, the simple average combination method and the weighted average combination method were used as a benchmark for comparing the results of the novel SGB combination method. The models and combination results are evaluated using statistical and graphical criteria. Overall results of this study show that the use of combination technique can certainly improve the simulated river flows of four selected models for Ohinemuri catchment, New Zealand. The results also indicate that the novel SGB combination method is capable of accurate prediction when used in a combination method of the simulated river flows in New Zealand.

Keywords: multi-model combination, rainfall-runoff modeling, stochastic gradient boosting, bioinformatics

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Authors: Ilirjan Malollari, Redi Buzo, Lorina Lici

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This study was done for the characterization of polyphenols changes of anthocyanins, flavonoids, the color intensity and total polyphenols index, maturity and oxidation index during the process of micro-oxygenation of wine that comes from a specific geographic area in the southeastern region of the country. Also, through mathematical modeling of the oxygen distribution within solution of wort for wine fermentation, was shown the strong impact of carbon dioxide present in the liquor. Analytical results show periodic increases of color intensity and tonality, reduction level of free anthocyanins and flavonoids free because of polycondensation reactions between tannins and anthocyanins, increased total polyphenols index and decrease the ratio between the flavonoids and anthocyanins offering a red stabilize wine proved by sensory degustation tasting for color intensity, tonality, body, tannic perception, taste and remained back taste which comes by specific area associated with environmental indications. Micro-oxygenation of wine is a wine-making technique, which consists in the addition of small and controlled amounts of oxygen in the different stages of wine production but more efficiently after end of alcoholic fermentation. The objectives of the process include improved mouth feel (body and texture), color enhanced stability, increased oxidative stability, and decreased vegetative aroma during polyphenols changes process. A very important factor is polyphenolics organic grape composition strongly associated with the environment geographical specifics area in which it is grown the grape.

Keywords: micro oxygenation, polyphenols, environment, wine stability, diffusion modeling

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Authors: Rafeqah Raslan, Mastura AbdManaf, Junaidah Jai, Istikamah Subuki, Ana Najwa Mustapa

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The volatile citronella essential oil was encapsulated by simple coacervation and complex coacervation using gum Arabic and gelatin as wall material. Glutaraldehyde was used in the methodology as crosslinking agent. The citronella standard calibration graph was developed with R2 equal to 0.9523 for the accurate determination of encapsulation efficiency and release study. The release kinetic was analyzed based on Fick’s law of diffusion for polymeric system and linear graph of log fraction release over log time was constructed to determine the release rate constant, k and diffusion coefficient, n. Both coacervation methods in the present study produce encapsulation efficiency around 94%. The capsules morphology analysis supported the release kinetic mechanisms of produced capsules for both coacervation process.

Keywords: simple coacervation, complex coacervation, encapsulation efficiency, release kinetic study

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Authors: Mounir Kehal, Adel Al Araifi

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The post-globalisation epoch has placed businesses everywhere in new and different competitive situations where knowledgeable, effective and efficient behaviour has come to provide the competitive and comparative edge. Enterprises have turned to explicit- and even conceptualising on tacit- Knowledge Management to elaborate a systematic approach to develop and sustain the Intellectual Capital needed to succeed. To be able to do that, you have to be able to visualize your organization as consisting of nothing but knowledge and knowledge flows, whilst being presented in a graphical and visual framework, referred to as automated organizational cartography. Hence, creating the ability of further actively classifying existing organizational content evolving from and within data feeds, in an algorithmic manner, potentially giving insightful schemes and dynamics by which organizational know-how is visualised. It is discussed and elaborated on most recent and applicable definitions and classifications of knowledge management, representing a wide range of views from mechanistic (systematic, data driven) to a more socially (psychologically, cognitive/metadata driven) orientated. More elaborate continuum models, for knowledge acquisition and reasoning purposes, are being used for effectively representing the domain of information that an end user may contain in their decision making process for utilization of available organizational intellectual resources (i.e. Autocart). In this paper we present likewise an empirical research study conducted previously to try and explore knowledge diffusion in a specialist knowledge domain.

Keywords: knowledge management, knowledge maps, knowledge diffusion, organizational cartography

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Authors: Sylwia Wiewiorowska, Zbigniew Muskalski

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The article presents part of research on the development of nickel plated welding wire production technology, whose application will enable the elimination of the flaws of currently manufactured welding wires. The nickel plated welding wire will be distinguished by high quality, because the Ni layer which is deposited electrochemically onto it from acid baths is characterized by very good adhesion to the steel wire surface, while the ductile nickel well deforms plastically in the drawing process and the adhesion of the Ni layer increases in the drawing process due to the occurring process of diffusion between the Ni and the steel. The Ni layer obtained in the proposed technology, despite a smaller thickness than when the wire is coated with copper, is continuous and tight, thus ensuring high corrosion resistance, as well as unsusceptible to scaling, which should provide a product that meets requirements imposed by the market. The product will also reduce, to some extent, the amount of copper brought in to steel through recycling, while the wire coating nickel introduced to the weld in the welding process is expected, to a degree, to favorably influence its mechanical properties. The paper describes the tests of the process of nickel plating of f1.96 mm-diameter wires using various nickel plating baths with different process parameters.

Keywords: steel wire, properties, welding process, Ni layer

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Authors: A. Y. Mukhtar, J. B. Munyakazi, R. Ouifki

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Over the past few decades, the unprecedented increase in mobility has raised considerable concern about the relationship between mobility and vector-borne diseases and malaria in particular. Thus, one can claim that human mobility is one of the contributing factors to the resurgence of malaria. To assess human mobility on malaria burden among hosts, we formulate a movement-based model on a network of patches. We then extend human multi-group SEIAR deterministic epidemic models into a system of stochastic differential equations (SDEs). Our quantitative stochastic model which is expressed in terms of average rates of movement between compartments is fitted to time-series data (weekly malaria data of 2011 for each patch) using the maximum likelihood approach. Using the metapopulation (multi-group) model, we compute and analyze the basic reproduction number. The result shows that human movement is sufficient to preserve malaria disease firmness in the patches with the low transmission. With these results, we concluded that the sensitivity of malaria to the human mobility is turning to be greatly important over the implications of future malaria control in South Sudan.

Keywords: basic reproduction number, malaria, maximum likelihood, movement, stochastic model

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Authors: Weiyao Zhu, Qian Qi, Ming Yue, Dongxu Ma

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Due to the nano-micro pore structures and the massive multi-stage multi-cluster hydraulic fracturing in shale gas reservoirs, the multi-scale seepage flows are much more complicated than in most other conventional reservoirs, and are crucial for the economic development of shale gas. In this study, a new multi-scale non-linear flow model was established and simplified, based on different diffusion and slip correction coefficients. Due to the fact that different flow laws existed between the fracture network and matrix zone, a three-zone composite model was proposed. Then, according to the conformal transformation combined with the law of equivalent percolation resistance, the productivity equation of a horizontal fractured well, with consideration given to diffusion, slip, desorption, and absorption, was built. Also, an analytic solution was derived, and the interference of the multi-cluster fractures was analyzed. The results indicated that the diffusion of the shale gas was mainly in the transition and Fick diffusion regions. The matrix permeability was found to be influenced by slippage and diffusion, which was determined by the pore pressure and diameter according to the Knudsen number. It was determined that, with the increased half-lengths of the fracture clusters, flow conductivity of the fractures, and permeability of the fracture network, the productivity of the fractured well also increased. Meanwhile, with the increased number of fractures, the distance between the fractures decreased, and the productivity slowly increased due to the mutual interference of the fractures. In regard to the fractured horizontal wells, the free gas was found to majorly contribute to the productivity, while the contribution of the desorption increased with the increased pressure differences.

Keywords: multi-scale, fracture network, composite model, productivity

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Authors: Y. J. Song, Q. S. Xu, X. C. Wang, H. Wang, C. Q. Li

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The catalyst of copper oxide loaded on HZSM-5 was developed for nitrous oxide (N₂O) direct decomposition. The kinetic of nitrous oxide decomposition was studied for CuO/HZSM-5 catalyst prepared by incipient wetness impregnation method. The external and internal diffusion of catalytic reaction were considered in the investigation. Experiment results indicated that the external diffusion was basically eliminated when the reaction gas mixture gas hourly space velocity (GHSV) was higher than 9000h⁻¹ and the influence of the internal diffusion was negligible when the particle size of the catalyst CuO/HZSM-5 was small than 40-60 mesh. The experiment results showed that the kinetic of catalytic decomposition of N₂O was a first-order reaction and the activation energy and the pre-factor of the kinetic equation were 115.15kJ/mol and of 1.6×109, respectively.

Keywords: catalytic decomposition, CuO/HZSM-5, kinetic, nitrous oxide

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Authors: Matheus Fernando Pereira, Varese Salvador Timoteo

Abstract:

In this work, we have solved the two-dimensional advection-diffusion equation numerically for a spatially dependent solute dispersion along non-uniform flow with a pulse type source in order to make a systematic study on the influence of medium heterogeneity, initial flow velocity, and initial dispersion coefficient parameters on the solutions of the equation. The behavior of the solutions is then investigated as we change the three parameters independently. Our results show that even though the parameters represent different physical features of the system, the effect on their variation is very similar. We also observe that the effects caused by the parameters on the concentration depend on the distance from the source. Finally, our numerical results are in good agreement with the exact solutions for all values of the parameters we used in our analysis.

Keywords: advection-diffusion equation, dispersion, numerical methods, pulse-type source

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