Search results for: statistics and probability

Authors: Robert Vanderburg, Nicholas Gibson

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Objectives: There has been an increased focus in education students’ mathematics skills in the last two years. Universities have, specifically, had problems teaching students struggling with mathematics. This paper focuses on the ability of a digital platform to significantly improve mathematics skills for struggling students. Methods: 32 students who demonstrated low scores on a mathematics test were selected to take part in a one-month tutorial program using a digital mathematics portal. Students were provided feedback for questions posted on the portal and a fortnightly tutorial session. Results: A pre-test post-test design was analyzed using a one-way analysis of variance (ANOVA). The analysis suggested that students improved skills in algebra, geometry, statistics, probability, ratios, fractions, and probability. Conclusion: Distance university students can improve their mathematics skills using a digital platform.

Keywords: digital education, distance education, higher education, mathematics education

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Authors: Jerry Hu

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Let G = (V, E) with V = {1, 2, ..., k} be a graph, the k positive integers a₁, a₂, ..., ak are G-wise relatively prime if (aᵢ, aⱼ ) = 1 for {i, j} ∈ E. We use an inductive approach to give an asymptotic formula for the number of k-tuples of integers that are G-wise relatively prime. An exact formula is obtained for the probability that k positive integers are G-wise relatively prime. As a corollary, we also provide an exact formula for the probability that k positive integers have exactly r relatively prime pairs.

Keywords: graph, independent set, G-wise relatively prime, probability

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Authors: Bahareh Zare

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The theory of the investment model of dating infidelity maintains that loyalty is an essential power within romantic relationships. Loyalty signifies both motivation and psychological attachment to maintain a relationship. This study examined the relationship between the Big Five Personality Factors (Extraversion, Neuroticism, Openness, Conscientiousness, and Agreeableness), probability of marital infidelity, and risk of divorce. The participants completed NEO-FFI, INFQ (infidelity questionnaire) and were interviewed by OHI (Oral History Interview). The results demonstrated that extraversion and agreeableness traits were significant predictors for the probability of infidelity and risk of divorce. In addition, conscientiousness predicted the probability of infidelity, while neuroticism predicted the risk of divorce.

Keywords: five factors personality, infidelity, risk of divorce, investment theory

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Authors: Seon Soon Choi

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The fatigue crack growth is stochastic because of the fatigue behavior having an uncertainty and a randomness. Therefore, it is necessary to determine the probability distribution of a grown crack size at a specific fatigue crack propagation life for maintenance of structure as well as reliability estimation. The essential purpose of this study is to present the good probability distribution fit for the grown crack size at a specified fatigue life in a rolled magnesium alloy under different specimen thickness conditions. Fatigue crack propagation experiments are carried out in laboratory air under three conditions of specimen thickness using AZ31 to investigate a stochastic crack growth behavior. The goodness-of-fit test for probability distribution of a grown crack size under different specimen thickness conditions is performed by Anderson-Darling test. The effect of a specimen thickness on variability of a grown crack size is also investigated.

Keywords: crack size, fatigue crack propagation, magnesium alloys, probability distribution, specimen thickness

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Authors: Ibtihaj Al-Siyabi

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The crisis of COVID-19 posed enormous challenges to the statistical providers. While official statistics were disrupted by the pandemic and related containment measures, there was a growing and pressing need for real-time data and statistics to inform decisions. This paper gives an account of the way the pandemic impacted the operations of the National Statistical Offices (NSOs) in general in terms of data collection and methods used and the main challenges encountered by them based on international surveys. It highlights the performance of the Statistical Centre for the Cooperation Council for the Arab Countries of the Gulf, GCC-STAT, and its responsiveness to the pandemic placing special emphasis on environmental statistics. The paper concludes by confirming the GCC-STAT’s resilience and success in facing the challenges.

Keywords: NSO, COVID-19, statistics, crisis, pandemic

Procedia PDF Downloads 96

Authors: Marwane Ben Hcine, Ridha Bouallegue

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The aim of this work is to provide an original analytical framework for downlink effective SINR evaluation in LTE networks. The classical single carrier SINR performance evaluation is extended to multi-carrier systems operating over frequency selective channels. Extension is achieved by expressing the link outage probability in terms of the statistics of the effective SINR. For effective SINR computation, the exponential effective SINR mapping (EESM) method is used on this work. Closed-form expression for the link outage probability is achieved assuming a log skew normal approximation for single carrier case. Then we rely on the lognormal approximation to express the exponential effective SINR distribution as a function of the mean and standard deviation of the SINR of a generic subcarrier. Achieved formulas is easily computable and can be obtained for a user equipment (UE) located at any distance from its serving eNodeB. Simulations show that the proposed framework provides results with accuracy within 0.5 dB.

Keywords: LTE, OFDMA, effective SINR, log skew normal approximation

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Authors: Mohd Aftar Abu Bakar, Noratiqah Mohd Ariff, Abdul Aziz Jemain

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Storm Event Analysis (SEA) provides a method to define rainfalls events as storms where each storm has its own amount and duration. By modelling daily probability of different types of storms, the onset, offset and cycle of rainfall seasons can be determined and investigated. Furthermore, researchers from the field of meteorology will be able to study the dynamical characteristics of rainfalls and make predictions for future reference. In this study, four categories of storms; short, intermediate, long and very long storms; are introduced based on the length of storm duration. Daily probability models of storms are built for these four categories of storms in Peninsular Malaysia. The models are constructed by using Bernoulli distribution and by applying linear regression on the first Fourier harmonic equation. From the models obtained, it is found that daily probability of storms at the Eastern part of Peninsular Malaysia shows a unimodal pattern with high probability of rain beginning at the end of the year and lasting until early the next year. This is very likely due to the Northeast monsoon season which occurs from November to March every year. Meanwhile, short and intermediate storms at other regions of Peninsular Malaysia experience a bimodal cycle due to the two inter-monsoon seasons. Overall, these models indicate that Peninsular Malaysia can be divided into four distinct regions based on the daily pattern for the probability of various storm events.

Keywords: daily probability model, monsoon seasons, regions, storm events

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Authors: Frantisek Mosna

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E-learning has become an efficient and widespread means in process of education at all branches of human activities. Statistics is not an exception. Unfortunately the main focus in the statistics teaching is usually paid to the substitution to formulas. Suitable web-sites can simplify and automate calculation and provide more attention and time to the basic principles of statistics, mathematization of real-life situations and following interpretation of results. We introduce our own web-sites for hypothesis testing. Their didactic aspects, technical possibilities of individual tools for their creating, experience and advantages or disadvantages of them are discussed in this paper. These web-sites do not substitute common statistical software but significantly improve the teaching of the statistics at universities.

Keywords: e-learning, hypothesis testing, PHP, web-sites

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Authors: Suparat Niwitpong, Sa-aat Niwitpong

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Statistical inference of normal mean with known coefficient of variation has been investigated recently. This phenomenon occurs normally in environment and agriculture experiments when the scientist knows the coefficient of variation of their experiments. In this paper, we constructed new confidence intervals for the normal population mean with known coefficient of variation. We also derived analytic expressions for the coverage probability of each confidence interval. To confirm our theoretical results, Monte Carlo simulation will be used to assess the performance of these intervals based on their coverage probabilities.

Keywords: confidence interval, coverage probability, expected length, known coefficient of variation

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Authors: Mohamed Adnan Landolsi, Ali F. Almutairi

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The paper addresses the problem of line-of-sight (LOS) vs. non-line-of-sight (NLOS) propagation link identification in ultra-wideband (UWB) wireless networks, which is necessary for improving the accuracy of radiolocation and positioning applications. A LOS/NLOS likelihood hypothesis testing approach is applied based on exploiting distinctive statistical features of the channel impulse response (CIR) using parameters related to the “skewness” of the CIR and its root mean square (RMS) delay spread. A log-normal fit is presented for the probability densities of the CIR parameters. Simulation results show that different environments (residential, office, outdoor, etc.) have measurable differences in their CIR parameters’ statistics, which is then exploited in determining the nature of the propagation channels. Correct LOS/NLOS channel identification rates exceeding 90% are shown to be achievable for most types of environments. Additional improvement is also obtained by combining both CIR skewness and RMS delay statistics.

Keywords: UWB, propagation, LOS, NLOS, identification

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Authors: Seon Soon Choi

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It is necessary to predict a fatigue crack propagation life for estimation of structural integrity. Because of an uncertainty and a randomness of a structural behavior, it is also required to analyze stochastic characteristics of the fatigue crack propagation life at a specified fatigue crack size. The essential purpose of this study is to present the good probability distribution fit for the fatigue crack propagation life at a specified fatigue crack size in magnesium alloys under various fatigue load ratio conditions. To investigate a stochastic crack growth behavior, fatigue crack propagation experiments are performed in laboratory air under several conditions of fatigue load ratio using AZ31. By Anderson-Darling test, a goodness-of-fit test for probability distribution of the fatigue crack propagation life is performed and the good probability distribution fit for the fatigue crack propagation life is presented. The effect of load ratio on variability of fatigue crack propagation life is also investigated.

Keywords: fatigue crack propagation life, load ratio, magnesium alloys, probability distribution

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Authors: Mohammed A. Hajeeh

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This paper examines the behavior of a system, which upon failure is either replaced with certain probability p or imperfectly repaired with probability q. The system is analyzed using Kolmogorov's forward equations method; the analytical expression for the steady state availability is derived as an indicator of the system’s performance. It is found that the analysis becomes more complex as the number of imperfect repairs increases. It is also observed that the availability increases as the number of states and replacement probability increases. Using such an approach in more complex configurations and in dynamic systems is cumbersome; therefore, it is advisable to resort to simulation or heuristics. In this paper, an example is provided for demonstration.

Keywords: repairable models, imperfect, availability, exponential distribution

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Authors: Hiba Naccache

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The present research investigated whether gender differences affect performance in a simple math quiz in statistics course. Participants of this study comprised a sample of 567 statistics students in two different universities in Lebanon. Data were collected through a simple math quiz. Analysis of quantitative data indicated that there wasn’t a significant difference in math performance between males and females. The results suggest that improvements in student performance may depend on improved mastery of basic algebra especially for females. The implications of these findings and further recommendations were discussed.

Keywords: gender, education, math, statistics

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Authors: Julio Vicente Cateia

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This paper aims to assess the role of informality and trade facilitation on the export probability of Guinea-Bissau. We include informality in the Féchet function, which gives the expression for the country's supply probability. We find that Guinea-Bissau is about 7.2% less likely to export due to the 1% increase in informality. The export's probability increases by about 1.7%, 4%, and 1.1% due to a 1% increase in trade facilitation, R&D stock, and year of education. These results are significant at the usual levels. We suggest a development agenda aimed at reducing the level of informality in this country.

Keywords: development, trade, informality, trade facilitation, economy of Guinea-Bissau

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Authors: Tomoaki Hashimoto

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In recent decades, probabilistic constrained optimal control problems have attracted much attention in many research field. Although probabilistic constraints are generally intractable in an optimization problem, several tractable methods haven been proposed to handle probabilistic constraints. In most methods, probabilistic constraints are reduced to deterministic constraints that are tractable in an optimization problem. However, there is a gap between the transformed deterministic constraints in case of known and unknown probability distribution. This paper examines the conservativeness of probabilistic constrained optimization method with the unknown probability distribution. The objective of this paper is to provide a quantitative assessment of the conservatism for tractable constraints in probabilistic constrained optimization with the unknown probability distribution.

Keywords: optimal control, stochastic systems, discrete time systems, probabilistic constraints

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Authors: Mustapha Kamel Mihoubi, Mohamed Essadik Kerkar

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Probabilistic risk analysis models are used to provide a better understanding of the reliability and structural failure of works, including when calculating the stability of large structures to a major risk in the event of an accident or breakdown. This work is interested in the study of the probability of failure of concrete dams through the application of reliability analysis methods including the methods used in engineering. It is in our case, the use of level 2 methods via the study limit state. Hence, the probability of product failures is estimated by analytical methods of the type first order risk method (FORM) and the second order risk method (SORM). By way of comparison, a level three method was used which generates a full analysis of the problem and involves an integration of the probability density function of random variables extended to the field of security using the Monte Carlo simulation method. Taking into account the change in stress following load combinations: normal, exceptional and extreme acting on the dam, calculation of the results obtained have provided acceptable failure probability values which largely corroborate the theory, in fact, the probability of failure tends to increase with increasing load intensities, thus causing a significant decrease in strength, shear forces then induce a shift that threatens the reliability of the structure by intolerable values of the probability of product failures. Especially, in case the increase of uplift in a hypothetical default of the drainage system.

Keywords: dam, failure, limit-state, monte-carlo, reliability, probability, simulation, sliding, taylor

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Authors: Safia Hocine, Djamil Aïssani

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Risk models, recently studied in the literature, are becoming increasingly complex. It is rare to find explicit analytical relations to calculate the ruin probability. Indeed, the stability issue occurs naturally in ruin theory, when parameters in risk cannot be estimated than with uncertainty. However, in most cases, there are no explicit formulas for the ruin probability. Hence, the interest to obtain explicit stability bounds for these probabilities in different risk models. In this paper, we interest to the stability bounds of the univariate classical risk model established using the regenerative processes approach. By adopting an algorithmic approach, we implement this approximation and determine numerically the bounds of ruin probability in the case of large claims (heavy-tailed distribution).

Keywords: heavy-tailed distribution, large claims, regenerative process, risk model, ruin probability, stability

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Authors: Hamid Ahmadi, Amirreza Ghaffari

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Fatigue life of tubular joints in offshore structures is not only dependent on the value of hot-spot stress, but is also significantly influenced by the through-the-thickness stress distribution characterized by the degree of bending (DoB). The DoB exhibits considerable scatter calling for greater emphasis in accurate determination of its governing probability distribution which is a key input for the fatigue reliability analysis of a tubular joint. Although the tubular X-joints are commonly found in offshore jacket structures, as far as the authors are aware, no comprehensive research has been carried out on the probability distribution of the DoB in tubular X-joints. What has been used so far as the probability distribution of the DoB in reliability analyses is mainly based on assumptions and limited observations, especially in terms of distribution parameters. In the present paper, results of parametric equations available for the calculation of the DoB have been used to develop probability distribution models for the DoB in the chord member of tubular X-joints subjected to four types of bending loads. Based on a parametric study, a set of samples was prepared and density histograms were generated for these samples using Freedman-Diaconis method. Twelve different probability density functions (PDFs) were fitted to these histograms. The maximum likelihood method was utilized to determine the parameters of fitted distributions. In each case, Kolmogorov-Smirnov test was used to evaluate the goodness of fit. Finally, after substituting the values of estimated parameters for each distribution, a set of fully defined PDFs have been proposed for the DoB in tubular X-joints subjected to bending loads.

Keywords: tubular X-joint, degree of bending (DoB), probability density function (PDF), Kolmogorov-Smirnov goodness-of-fit test

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Authors: Petros Roussos

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The present study focused on students' statistical reasoning related to Null Hypothesis Statistical Testing and p-values. Its objective was to test the hypothesis that neither the place (classroom, at a distance, online) nor the medium that actually supports the learning (ICT, internet, books) has an effect on understanding of statistical concepts. In addition, it was expected that students' attitudes towards statistics would not predict understanding of statistical concepts. The sample consisted of 385 undergraduate and postgraduate students from six state and private universities (five in Greece and one in Cyprus). Students were administered two questionnaires: a) the Greek version of the Survey of Attitudes Toward Statistics, and b) a short instrument which measures students' understanding of statistical significance and p-values. Results suggest that attitudes towards statistics do not predict students' understanding of statistical concepts, whereas the medium did not have an effect.

Keywords: attitudes towards statistics, blended learning, e-learning, statistical reasoning

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Authors: Justice Dadzie, Stacy H. Surman, Ruth K. Annan-Brew, Ifesinachi J. Ezugwu, Evans Addison

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This study aimed to explore the correlation between students' performance in educational statistics and research methods in education, as well as investigate potential differences in performance based on their undergraduate programs. A cross-sectional design was employed, and data was collected from 170 students enrolled in master of philosophy programs in the department of education and psychology. The correlation analysis revealed a strong positive correlation between students' performance in intermediate statistics in education and research methods in education. This indicates a close relationship between the two domains. The MANOVA analysis showed no significant differences in the linear combination of intermediate statistics in education and research methods in education scores across the different undergraduate programs. The tests of between-subjects effects further confirmed that the student's performance in intermediate statistics in education and research methods in education did not differ significantly across the different undergraduate programs. These findings contribute to the existing literature by providing insights into the correlation between educational statistics and research methods, and the influence of undergraduate program backgrounds on students' performance in these domains. The strong positive correlation between intermediate statistics and research methods highlights the importance of a solid foundation in statistics for understanding and applying research methods. Moreover, the consistent relationship across different academic backgrounds emphasizes the need for targeted interventions and support systems to enhance graduate students' competencies in these critical areas.

Keywords: educational statistics, research methods, undergraduate programs, students performance

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Authors: Ernesto Pineda Leon, Dante Tolentino Lopez, Janis Zapata Lopez

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The current paper shows the application of the boundary element method for the analysis of plates under shear stress causing plasticity. In this case, the shear deformation of a plate is considered by means of the Reissner’s theory. The probability of failure of a Reissner’s plate due to a proposed index plastic behavior is calculated taken into account the uncertainty in mechanical and geometrical properties. The problem is developed in two dimensions. The classic plasticity’s theory is applied and a formulation for initial stresses that lead to the boundary integral equations due to plasticity is also used. For the plasticity calculation, the Von Misses criteria is used. To solve the non-linear equations an incremental method is employed. The results show a relatively small failure probability for the ranges of loads between 0.6 and 1.0. However, for values between 1.0 and 2.5, the probability of failure increases significantly. Consequently, for load bigger than 2.5 the plate failure is a safe event. The results are compared to those that were found in the literature and the agreement is good.

Keywords: boundary element method, failure, plasticity, probability

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Authors: Ugiri Ejikeme

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In an executive summary, UNESCO describes Framework for Cultural Statistics as a tool for organizing cultural statistics both nationally and internationally. This is based on conceptual foundation and a common understanding of culture that will enable the measurement of a wide range of cultural expressions. This means therefore that cultural expression in whatever guise has the potentiality of contributing reasonably to the development of a given society. The paper looked into the various tangible and intangible cultures in Imo State of Nigeria. Due to government’s insensitivity, there is need to remind ourselves of the need to pay adequate attention to the cultural heritage bequeathed to us by our forefathers for the sake of posterity. Documenting this information in written form therefore becomes imperative. The study concludes that culture if developed, could reasonably contribute to economic and social growth of the society.

Keywords: detonating culture, statistics and development, Imo State, Nigeria

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Authors: Saemee Jun, Dong-Hyeon Shin, Tae-Sang Ahn, Hyung-Joon Kim

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Building loss estimation methodologies which have been advanced considerably in recent decades are usually used to estimate socio and economic impacts resulting from seismic structural damage. In accordance with these methods, this paper presents the evaluation of an annual loss probability of a reinforced concrete moment resisting frame designed according to Korean Building Code. The annual loss probability is defined by (1) a fragility curve obtained from a capacity spectrum method which is similar to a method adopted from HAZUS, and (2) a seismic hazard curve derived from annual frequencies of exceedance per peak ground acceleration. Seismic fragilities are computed to calculate the annual loss probability of a certain structure using functions depending on structural capacity, seismic demand, structural response and the probability of exceeding damage state thresholds. This study carried out a nonlinear static analysis to obtain the capacity of a RC moment resisting frame selected as a prototype building. The analysis results show that the probability of being extensive structural damage in the prototype building is expected to 0.004% in a year.

Keywords: expected annual loss, loss estimation, RC structure, fragility analysis

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Authors: Chaudhuri Manoj Kumar Swain, Susmita Das

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This paper explores a detailed procedure of predicting a path loss (PL) model and its application in estimating the coverage probability in a WiMAX network. For this a hybrid approach is followed in predicting an empirical PL model of a 2.65 GHz WiMAX network deployed in a suburban environment. Data collection, statistical analysis, and regression analysis are the phases of operations incorporated in this approach and the importance of each of these phases has been discussed properly. The procedure of collecting data such as received signal strength indicator (RSSI) through experimental set up is demonstrated. From the collected data set, empirical PL and RSSI models are predicted with regression technique. Furthermore, with the aid of the predicted PL model, essential parameters such as PL exponent as well as the coverage probability of the network are evaluated. This research work may assist in the process of deployment and optimisation of any cellular network significantly.

Keywords: WiMAX, RSSI, path loss, coverage probability, regression analysis

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Authors: Amir T. Payandeh Najafabadi

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This article considers the problem of evaluating infinite-time (or finite-time) ruin probability under a given compound Poisson surplus process by approximating the claim size distribution by a finite mixture exponential, say Hyperexponential, distribution. It restates the infinite-time (or finite-time) ruin probability as a solvable ordinary differential equation (or a partial differential equation). Application of our findings has been given through a simulation study.

Keywords: ruin probability, compound poisson processes, mixture exponential (hyperexponential) distribution, heavy-tailed distributions

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Authors: Dolly Kumari, H. Lhungdim

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Maternal health is one of the crucial health indicators for any country. 5th goal of Millennium Development Goals is also emphasising on improvement of maternal health. Soon after Independence government of India realizing the importance of maternal and child health care services, and took steps to strengthen in 1st and 2nd five year plans. In past decade the other health indicator which is life expectancy at birth has been observed remarkable improvement. But still maternal mortality is high in India and in some states it is observe much higher than national average. Government of India pour lots of fund and initiate National Rural Health Mission (NRHM) in 2005 to improve maternal health in country by providing affordable and accessible health care services. Accredited Social Heath Activist (ASHA) is one of the key components of the NRHM. Mainly ASHAs are selected female aged 25-45 years from village itself and accountable for the monitoring of maternal health care for the same village. ASHA are trained to works as an interface between the community and public health system. This study tries to assess the role of ASHA in utilizing maternal health care services and to see the level of awareness about benefits given under JSY scheme and utilization of those benefits by eligible women. For the study concurrent evaluation data from National Rural health Mission (NRHM), initiated by government of India in 2005 has been used. This study is based on 78205 currently married women from 70 different districts of India. Descriptive statistics, chi2 test and binary logistic regression have been used for analysis. The probability of institutional delivery increases by 2.03 times (p<0.001) while if ASHA arranged or helped in arranging transport facility the probability of institutional delivery is increased by 1.67 times (p<0.01) than if she is not arranging transport facility. Further if ASHA facilitated to get JSY card to the pregnant women probability of going for full ANC is increases by 1.36 times (p<0.05) than reference. However if ASHA discuses about institutional delivery and approaches to get register than probability of getting TT injection is 1.88 and 1.64 times (p<0.01) higher than that if she did not discus. Further, Probability of benefits from JSY schemes is 1.25 times (p<0.001) higher among women who get married after 18 years. The probability of benefits from JSY schemes is 1.25 times (p<0.001) higher among women who get married after 18 year of age than before 18 years, it is also 1.28 times (p<0.001) and 1.32 times (p<0.001) higher among women have 1 to 8 year of schooling and with 9 and above years of schooling respectively than the women who never attended school. Those women who are working have 1.13 times (p<0.001) higher probability of getting benefits from JSY scheme than not working women. Surprisingly women belongs to wealthiest quintile are .53times (P<0.001) less aware about JSY scheme. Results conclude that work done by ASHA has great influence on maternal health care utilization in India. But results also show that still substantial numbers of needed population are far from utilization of these services. Place of delivery is significantly influenced by referral and transport facility arranged by ASHA.

Keywords: institutional delivery, JSY beneficiaries, referral faculty, public health

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Authors: Boumediene Hamzi, Turky N. AlOtaiby, Saleh AlShebeili, Arwa AlAnqary

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We introduce a data-driven method for seizure detection drawing on recent progress in Machine Learning. The method is based on embedding probability measures in a high (or infinite) dimensional reproducing kernel Hilbert space (RKHS) where the Maximum Mean Discrepancy (MMD) is computed. The MMD is metric between probability measures that are computed as the difference between the means of probability measures after being embedded in an RKHS. Working in RKHS provides a convenient, general functional-analytical framework for theoretical understanding of data. We apply this approach to the problem of seizure detection.

Keywords: kernel methods, maximum mean discrepancy, seizure detection, machine learning

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Authors: Carolina Senabre Blanes, Sergio Valero Verdú, Emilio Velasco SáNchez

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This research objective is to obtain a percentage of success for each Ministry of Transport (MOT) facilities of each city of the Alicante region from Comunidad Valenciana from Spain by comparing results obtained by using different brake testers. It has been studied which types of brake tester are being used at each city nowadays. Different types of brake testers are used at each city, and the mechanical engineering staffs from the Miguel Hernández University have studied differences between all of them, and have obtained measures from each type. A percentage of probability of success will be given to each MOT station when you try to pass the exam with the same car with same characteristics and the same wheels. In other words, parameters of the vehicle have been controlled to be the same at all tests; therefore, brake measurements variability will be due to the type of testers could be used at the MOT station. A percentage of probability to pass the brake exam at each city will be given by comparing results of tests.

Keywords: brake tester, Mot station, probability to pass the exam, brake tester characteristics

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Authors: Qiao-Yu Warren Cai

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Due to the rise of big data, building corpora and using them to analyze ChineseL2 learners’ language output has become a trend. Various empirical research has been conducted using Chinese corpora built by different academic institutes. However, most of the research analyzed the data in the Chinese corpora usingcorpus-based qualitative content analysis with descriptive statistics. Descriptive statistics can be used to make summations about the subjects or samples that research has actually measured to describe the numerical data, but the collected data cannot be generalized to the population. Comte, a Frenchpositivist, has argued since the 19th century that human beings’ knowledge, whether the discipline is humanistic and social science or natural science, should be verified in a scientific way to construct a universal theory to explain the truth and human beings behaviors. Inferential statistics, able to make judgments of the probability of a difference observed between groups being dependable or caused by chance (Free Geography Notes, 2015)and to infer from the subjects or examples what the population might think or behave, is just the right method to support Comte’s argument in the field of TCSOL. Also, inferential statistics is a core of quantitative research, but little research has been conducted by combing corpora with inferential statistics. Little research analyzes the differences in Chinese L2 learners’ language corpus output errors by using theOne-way ANOVA so that the findings of previous research are limited to inferring the population's Chinese errors according to the given samples’ Chinese corpora. To fill this knowledge gap in the professional development of Taiwanese TCSOL, the present study aims to utilize the One-way ANOVA to analyze corpus output errors of Chinese L2 learners from America, Myanmar, and Singapore. The results show that no significant difference exists in ‘shì (是) sentence’ and word order errors, but compared with Americans and Singaporeans, it is significantly easier for Myanmar to have ‘sentence blends.’ Based on the above results, the present study provides an instructional approach and contributes to further exploration of how Chinese L2 learners can have (and use) learning strategies to lower errors.

Keywords: Chinese corpus, error analysis, one-way analysis of variance, Chinese L2 learners, Americans, myanmar, Singaporeans

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Authors: Mohammad Bakhshi, Firas Al Janabi

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High resolution rain data are very important to fulfill the input of hydrological models. Among models of high-resolution rainfall data generation, the temporal disaggregation was chosen for this study. The paper attempts to generate three different rainfall resolutions (4-hourly, hourly and 10-minutes) from daily for around 20-year record period. The process was done by DiMoN tool which is based on random cascade model and method of fragment. Differences between observed and simulated rain dataset are evaluated with variety of statistical and empirical methods: Kolmogorov-Smirnov test (K-S), usual statistics, and Exceedance probability. The tool worked well at preserving the daily rainfall values in wet days, however, the generated data are cumulated in a shorter time period and made stronger storms. It is demonstrated that the difference between generated and observed cumulative distribution function curve of 4-hourly datasets is passed the K-S test criteria while in hourly and 10-minutes datasets the P-value should be employed to prove that their differences were reasonable. The results are encouraging considering the overestimation of generated high-resolution rainfall data.

Keywords: DiMoN Tool, disaggregation, exceedance probability, Kolmogorov-Smirnov test, rainfall

Procedia PDF Downloads 178