Search results for: statistic

Authors: Jung-Hong Hong, Jing-Cen Yang, Cai-Yu Ou

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The analysis of geographic inequality heavily relies on the use of location-enabled statistical data and quantitative measures to present the spatial patterns of the selected phenomena and analyze their differences. To protect the privacy of individual instance and link to administrative units, point-based datasets are spatially aggregated to area-based statistical datasets, where only the overall status for the selected levels of spatial units is used for decision making. The partition of the spatial units thus has dominant influence on the outcomes of the analyzed results, well known as the Modifiable Areal Unit Problem (MAUP). A new spatial reference framework, the Taiwan Geographical Statistical Classification (TGSC), was recently introduced in Taiwan based on the spatial partition principles of homogeneous consideration of the number of population and households. Comparing to the outcomes of the traditional township units, TGSC provides additional levels of spatial units with finer granularity for presenting spatial phenomena and enables domain experts to select appropriate dissemination level for publishing statistical data. This paper compares the results of respectively using TGSC and township unit on the mortality data and examines the spatial characteristics of their outcomes. For the mortality data between the period of January 1^st, 2008 and December 31^st, 2010 of the Taitung County, the all-cause age-standardized death rate (ASDR) ranges from 571 to 1757 per 100,000 persons, whereas the 2^nd dissemination area (TGSC) shows greater variation, ranged from 0 to 2222 per 100,000. The finer granularity of spatial units of TGSC clearly provides better outcomes for identifying and evaluating the geographic inequality and can be further analyzed with the statistical measures from other perspectives (e.g., population, area, environment.). The management and analysis of the statistical data referring to the TGSC in this research is strongly supported by the use of Geographic Information System (GIS) technology. An integrated workflow that consists of the tasks of the processing of death certificates, the geocoding of street address, the quality assurance of geocoded results, the automatic calculation of statistic measures, the standardized encoding of measures and the geo-visualization of statistical outcomes is developed. This paper also introduces a set of auxiliary measures from a geographic distribution perspective to further examine the hidden spatial characteristics of mortality data and justify the analyzed results. With the common statistical area framework like TGSC, the preliminary results demonstrate promising potential for developing a web-based statistical service that can effectively access domain statistical data and present the analyzed outcomes in meaningful ways to avoid wrong decision making.

Keywords: mortality map, spatial patterns, statistical area, variation

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Authors: Ebru Ozgur Guler, Huseyin Guler, Sera Sanli

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Social Progress Index (SPI) whose fundamentals have been thrown in the World Economy Forum is an index which aims to form a systematic basis for guiding strategy for inclusive growth which requires achieving both economic and social progress. In this research, it has been aimed to determine the relations among “Basic Human Needs” (BHN) (including four variables of ‘Nutrition and Basic Medical Care’, ‘Water and Sanitation’, ‘Shelter’ and ‘Personal Safety’) and “Opportunity” (OPT) (that is composed of ‘Personal Rights’, ‘Personal Freedom and Choice’, ‘Tolerance and Inclusion’, and ‘Access to Advanced Education’ components) dimensions of 2016 SPI for 138 countries which take place in the website of Social Progress Imperative by carrying out canonical correlation analysis (CCA) which is a data reduction technique that operates in a way to maximize the correlation between two variable sets. In the interpretation of results, the first pair of canonical variates pointing to the highest canonical correlation has been taken into account. The first canonical correlation coefficient has been found as 0.880 indicating to the high relationship between BHN and OPT variable sets. Wilk’s Lambda statistic has revealed that an overall effect of 0.809 is highly large for the full model in order to be counted as statistically significant (with a p-value of 0.000). According to the standardized canonical coefficients, the largest contribution to BHN set of variables has come from ‘shelter’ variable. The most effective variable in OPT set has been detected to be ‘access to advanced education’. Findings based on canonical loadings have also confirmed these results with respect to the contributions to the first canonical variates. When canonical cross loadings (structure coefficients) are examined, for the first pair of canonical variates, the largest contributions have been provided by ‘shelter’ and ‘access to advanced education’ variables. Since the signs for structure coefficients have been found to be negative for all variables; all OPT set of variables are positively related to all of the BHN set of variables. In case canonical communality coefficients which are the sum of the squares of structure coefficients across all interpretable functions are taken as the basis; amongst all variables, ‘personal rights’ and ‘tolerance and inclusion’ variables can be said not to be useful in the model with 0.318721 and 0.341722 coefficients respectively. On the other hand, while redundancy index for BHN set has been found to be 0.615; OPT set has a lower redundancy index with 0.475. High redundancy implies high ability for predictability. The proportion of the total variation in BHN set of variables that is explained by all of the opposite canonical variates has been calculated as 63% and finally, the proportion of the total variation in OPT set that is explained by all of the canonical variables in BHN set has been determined as 50.4% and a large part of this proportion belongs to the first pair. The results suggest that there is a high and statistically significant relationship between BHN and OPT. This relationship is generally accounted by ‘shelter’ and ‘access to advanced education’.

Keywords: canonical communality coefficient, canonical correlation analysis, redundancy index, social progress index

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Authors: Kenneth Okelo, Esther Waithaka, Maureen Mweru

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Development of oral language skills is a precursor to writing and reading acquisition. Oral skill is a means of communication through which people express their desires, ideas, excitements, amusements, disappointments and exchange information. In addition, oral skills have been found to be an important tool for thinking and concept development in children. Research carried out in industrialised countries have identified some appropriate teaching strategies used to enhance acquisition of oral language skills such as repetition, substitution, explanation, contrast, exemplification and code-switching. However, these studies’ geographical locations do not reflect the diversity of the Kenyan society. In addition, studies conducted in Kenya in the past have not established why pre-primary school teachers are not using appropriate teaching strategies. The purpose of this study was to find out whether teachers’ experience, academic qualification and type of training influences their choice of teaching strategies in the development of oral language skills inside and out of the classroom in selected preschools in Kibra Sub-County, Nairobi County. In addition, this study aimed at finding out the strategies used by teachers in Kibra Sub-County to promote oral skills development among pre-primary school children. The study was guided by Holdaway’s theory of language acquisition. Descriptive survey design was employed during this study. Questionnaires and observation schedules were used to collect data. Eighty-three (83) preschool teachers were sampled using multistage sampling methods for observation. Data was analysed using SPSS version 20. The researcher carried out content analysis on the qualitative data. The main descriptive methods used were tabulation of frequencies and percentages. Chi squire test was the inferential statistic used to test the relationship between variables. The main findings of the study indicate that teaching strategies that were mostly used by pre-primary school teachers were code-switching, examples, repetition, substitution and explanation. While questions, direction, expansion of children words and contrast were the least used teaching strategies when teaching oral language skills. The study revealed that the there is a slight correlation between the type of training of teachers and the teaching strategies as most of DICECE trained teachers used more teaching strategies when teaching oral skills compared to other teachers. The findings also revealed that there was a partial significant correlation between teacher’s academic qualifications and a few teaching strategies. A similar correlation was also observed between teaching experience and a few teaching strategies. Since the strategies used by pre-primary school teachers under the study were less than half of the recommended teaching strategies to promote oral skills, the study recommends that teachers should be encouraged to use more in structural strategies to improve children’s oral language skills.

Keywords: Kenya early childhood education, Kenya education, oral language skills acquisition, teaching methods

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Authors: Amanda Cristina da Silva Reis, Bruno Paulino Venâncio, Cristina Theada Ferreira, Andrea Fialho do Prado, Lucimara Guedes dos Santos, Aline de Souza Gravatá, Larissa Lima Gonçalves, Isabella Aparecida Ferreira Moretto, João Carlos Ferrari Corrêa, Fernanda Ishida Corrêa

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Objective: To compare two protocols of Transcranial Magnetic Stimulation (TMS) on quadriceps muscle spasticity in individuals diagnosed with Multiple Sclerosis (MS). Method: Clinical, crossover study, in which six adult individuals diagnosed with MS and spasticity in the lower limbs were randomized to receive one session of high-frequency (≥5Hz) and low-frequency (≤ 1Hz) TMS on motor cortex (M1) hotspot for quadriceps muscle, with a one-week interval between the sessions. To assess the spasticity was applied the Ashworth scale and were analyzed the latency time (ms) of the motor evoked potential (MEP) and the central motor conduction time (CMCT) of the bilateral quadriceps muscle. Assessments were performed before and after each intervention. The difference between groups was analyzed using the Friedman test, with a significance level of 0.05 adopted. Results: All statistical analyzes were performed using the SPSS Statistic version 26 programs, with a significance level established for the analyzes at p<0.05. Shapiro Wilk normality test. Parametric data were represented as mean and standard deviation for non-parametric variables, median and interquartile range, and frequency and percentage for categorical variables. There was no clinical change in quadriceps spasticity assessed using the Ashworth scale for the 1 Hz (p=0.813) and 5 Hz (p= 0.232) protocols for both limbs. Motor Evoked Potential latency time: in the 5hz protocol, there was no significant change for the contralateral side from pre to post-treatment (p>0.05), and for the ipsilateral side, there was a decrease in latency time of 0.07 seconds (p<0.05 ); for the 1Hz protocol there was an increase of 0.04 seconds in the latency time (p<0.05) for the contralateral side to the stimulus, and for the ipsilateral side there was a decrease in the latency time of 0.04 seconds (p=<0.05), with a significant difference between the contralateral (p=0.007) and ipsilateral (p=0.014) groups. Central motor conduction time in the 1Hz protocol, there was no change for the contralateral side (p>0.05) and for the ipsilateral side (p>0.05). In the 5Hz protocol for the contralateral side, there was a small decrease in latency time (p<0.05) and for the ipsilateral side, there was a decrease of 0.6 seconds in the latency time (p<0.05) with a significant difference between groups (p=0.019). Conclusion: A high or low-frequency session does not change spasticity, but it is observed that when the low-frequency protocol was performed, there was an increase in latency time on the stimulated side, and a decrease in latency time on the non-stimulated side, considering then that inhibiting the motor cortex increases cortical excitability on the opposite side.

Keywords: multiple sclerosis, spasticity, motor evoked potential, transcranial magnetic stimulation

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Authors: Alexandru-Ion Marinescu

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There exist a plethora of methods in the scientific literature which tackle the well-established task of credit score evaluation. In its most abstract form, a credit scoring algorithm takes as input several credit applicant properties, such as age, marital status, employment status, loan duration, etc. and must output a binary response variable (i.e. “GOOD” or “BAD”) stating whether the client is susceptible to payment return delays. Data imbalance is a common occurrence among financial institution databases, with the majority being classified as “GOOD” clients (clients that respect the loan return calendar) alongside a small percentage of “BAD” clients. But it is the “BAD” clients we are interested in since accurately predicting their behavior is crucial in preventing unwanted loss for loan providers. We add to this whole context the constraint that the algorithm must yield an actual, tractable mathematical formula, which is friendlier towards financial analysts. To this end, we have turned to genetic algorithms and genetic programming, aiming to evolve actual mathematical expressions using specially tailored mutation and crossover operators. As far as data representation is concerned, we employ a very flexible mechanism – LINQ expression trees, readily available in the C# programming language, enabling us to construct executable pieces of code at runtime. As the title implies, they model trees, with intermediate nodes being operators (addition, subtraction, multiplication, division) or mathematical functions (sin, cos, abs, round, etc.) and leaf nodes storing either constants or variables. There is a one-to-one correspondence between the client properties and the formula variables. The mutation and crossover operators work on a flattened version of the tree, obtained via a pre-order traversal. A consequence of our chosen technique is that we can identify and discard client properties which do not take part in the final score evaluation, effectively acting as a dimensionality reduction scheme. We compare ourselves with state of the art approaches, such as support vector machines, Bayesian networks, and extreme learning machines, to name a few. The data sets we benchmark against amount to a total of 8, of which we mention the well-known Australian credit and German credit data sets, and the performance indicators are the following: percentage correctly classified, area under curve, partial Gini index, H-measure, Brier score and Kolmogorov-Smirnov statistic, respectively. Finally, we obtain encouraging results, which, although placing us in the lower half of the hierarchy, drive us to further refine the algorithm.

Keywords: expression trees, financial credit scoring, genetic algorithm, genetic programming, symbolic evolution

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Authors: Sushmita Roy Chowdhury, Steve Holding, Sujoy Khan

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The immunogenic responses of the lung towards the fungus Aspergillus fumigatus may range from invasive aspergillosis in the immunocompromised, fungal ball or infection within a cavity in the lung in those with structural lung lesions, or allergic bronchopulmonary aspergillosis (ABPA). Patients with asthma or cystic fibrosis are particularly predisposed to ABPA. There are consensus guidelines that have established criteria for diagnosis of ABPA, but uncertainty remains on the serologic cut-off values that would increase the diagnostic specificity of ABPA. We retrospectively analyzed 80 patients with severe asthma and evidence of peripheral blood eosinophilia ( > 500) over the last 3 years who underwent all serologic tests to exclude ABPA. Total IgE, specific IgE and specific IgG levels against Aspergillus fumigatus were measured using ImmunoCAP Phadia-100 (Thermo Fisher Scientific, Sweden). The Modified ISHAM working group 2013 criteria (obligate criteria: asthma or cystic fibrosis, total IgE > 1000 IU/ml or > 417 kU/L and positive specific IgE Aspergillus fumigatus or skin test positivity; with ≥ 2 of peripheral eosinophilia, positive specific IgG Aspergillus fumigatus and consistent radiographic opacities) was used in the clinical workup for the final diagnosis of ABPA. Patients were divided into 3 groups - definite, possible, and no evidence of ABPA. Specific IgG Aspergillus fumigatus levels were not used to assign the patients into any of the groups. Of 80 patients (males 48, females 32; mean age 53.9 years ± SD 15.8) selected for the analysis, there were 30 patients who had positive specific IgE against Aspergillus fumigatus (37.5%). 13 patients fulfilled the Modified ISHAM working group 2013 criteria of ABPA (‘definite’), while 15 patients were ‘possible’ ABPA and 52 did not fulfill the criteria (not ABPA). As IgE levels were not normally distributed, median levels were used in the analysis. Median total IgE levels of patients with definite and possible ABPA were 2144 kU/L and 2597 kU/L respectively (non-significant), while median specific IgE Aspergillus fumigatus at 4.35 kUA/L and 1.47 kUA/L respectively were significantly different (comparison of standard deviations F-statistic 3.2267, significance level p=0.040). Mean levels of IgG anti-Aspergillus fumigatus in the three groups (definite, possible and no evidence of ABPA) were compared using ANOVA (Statgraphics Centurion Professional XV, Statpoint Inc). Mean levels of IgG anti-Aspergillus fumigatus (Gm3) in definite ABPA was 125.17 mgA/L ( ± SD 54.84, with 95%CI 92.03-158.32), while mean Gm3 levels in possible and no ABPA were 18.61 mgA/L and 30.05 mgA/L respectively. ANOVA showed a significant difference between the definite group and the other groups (p < 0.001). This was confirmed using multiple range tests (Fisher's least significant difference procedure). There was no significant difference between the possible ABPA and not ABPA groups (p > 0.05). The study showed that a sizeable proportion of patients with asthma are sensitized to Aspergillus fumigatus in this part of India. A higher cut-off value of Gm3 ≥ 80 mgA/L provides a higher serologic specificity towards definite ABPA. Long-term studies would provide us more information if those patients with 'possible' APBA and positive Gm3 later develop clear ABPA, and are different from the Gm3 negative group in this respect. Serologic testing with clear defined cut-offs are a valuable adjunct in the diagnosis of ABPA.

Keywords: allergic bronchopulmonary aspergillosis, Aspergillus fumigatus, asthma, IgE level

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Authors: Elaine Lima Da Fonseca, Eliomar Pereira Da Silva Filho

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The modeling of areas susceptible to soil loss by hydro erosive processes consists of a simplified instrument of reality with the purpose of predicting future behaviors from the observation and interaction of a set of geoenvironmental factors. The models of potential areas for soil loss will be obtained through binary logistic regression, artificial neural networks, and support vector machines. The choice of the municipality of Colorado do Oeste in the south of the western Amazon is due to soil degradation due to anthropogenic activities, such as agriculture, road construction, overgrazing, deforestation, and environmental and socioeconomic configurations. Initially, a soil erosion inventory map constructed through various field investigations will be designed, including the use of remotely piloted aircraft, orbital imagery, and the PLANAFLORO/RO database. 100 sampling units with the presence of erosion will be selected based on the assumptions indicated in the literature, and, to complement the dichotomous analysis, 100 units with no erosion will be randomly designated. The next step will be the selection of the predictive parameters that exert, jointly, directly, or indirectly, some influence on the mechanism of occurrence of soil erosion events. The chosen predictors are altitude, declivity, aspect or orientation of the slope, curvature of the slope, composite topographic index, flow power index, lineament density, normalized difference vegetation index, drainage density, lithology, soil type, erosivity, and ground surface temperature. After evaluating the relative contribution of each predictor variable, the erosion susceptibility model will be applied to the municipality of Colorado do Oeste - Rondônia through the SPSS Statistic 26 software. Evaluation of the model will occur through the determination of the values of the R² of Cox & Snell and the R² of Nagelkerke, Hosmer and Lemeshow Test, Log Likelihood Value, and Wald Test, in addition to analysis of the Confounding Matrix, ROC Curve and Accumulated Gain according to the model specification. The validation of the synthesis map resulting from both models of the potential risk of soil erosion will occur by means of Kappa indices, accuracy, and sensitivity, as well as by field verification of the classes of susceptibility to erosion using drone photogrammetry. Thus, it is expected to obtain the mapping of the following classes of susceptibility to erosion very low, low, moderate, very high, and high, which may constitute a screening tool to identify areas where more detailed investigations need to be carried out, applying more efficient social resources.

Keywords: modeling, susceptibility to erosion, artificial intelligence, Amazon

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Authors: R. Christopher, C. Brandt, N. Damons

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Background: The sequence of prevention model states that by constant assessment of injury, injury mechanisms and risk factors are identified, highlighting that collecting and recording of data is a core approach for preventing injuries. Several screening tools are available for use in the clinical setting. These screening techniques only recently received research attention, hence there is a dearth of inconsistent and controversial data regarding their applicability, validity, and reliability. Several systematic reviews related to common soccer injuries have been conducted; however, none of them addressed the screening tools for common soccer injuries. Objectives: The purpose of this study was to conduct a review of screening tools and their accuracy for common injuries in soccer. Methods: A systematic scoping review was performed based on the Joanna Briggs Institute procedure for conducting systematic reviews. Databases such as SPORT Discus, Cinahl, Medline, Science Direct, PubMed, and grey literature were used to access suitable studies. Some of the key search terms included: injury screening, screening, screening tool accuracy, injury prevalence, injury prediction, accuracy, validity, specificity, reliability, sensitivity. All types of English studies dating back to the year 2000 were included. Two blind independent reviewers selected and appraised articles on a 9-point scale for inclusion as well as for the risk of bias with the ACROBAT-NRSI tool. Data were extracted and summarized in tables. Plot data analysis was done, and sensitivity and specificity were analyzed with their respective 95% confidence intervals. I² statistic was used to determine the proportion of variation across studies. Results: The initial search yielded 95 studies, of which 21 were duplicates, and 54 excluded. A total of 10 observational studies were included for the analysis: 3 studies were analysed quantitatively while the remaining 7 were analysed qualitatively. Seven studies were graded low and three studies high risk of bias. Only high methodological studies (score > 9) were included for analysis. The pooled studies investigated tools such as the Functional Movement Screening (FMS™), the Landing Error Scoring System (LESS), the Tuck Jump Assessment, the Soccer Injury Movement Screening (SIMS), and the conventional hamstrings to quadriceps ratio. The accuracy of screening tools was of high reliability, sensitivity and specificity (calculated as ICC 0.68, 95% CI: 52-0.84; and 0.64, 95% CI: 0.61-0.66 respectively; I² = 13.2%, P=0.316). Conclusion: Based on the pooled results from the included studies, the FMS™ has a good inter-rater and intra-rater reliability. FMS™ is a screening tool capable of screening for common soccer injuries, and individual FMS™ scores are a better determinant of performance in comparison with the overall FMS™ score. Although meta-analysis could not be done for all the included screening tools, qualitative analysis also indicated good sensitivity and specificity of the individual tools. Higher levels of evidence are, however, needed for implication in evidence-based practice.

Keywords: accuracy, screening tools, sensitivity, soccer injuries, specificity

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Authors: Ye Zhang, Chuanjun Liu

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In-service aircraft is exposed to different types of threaten, e.g. bird strike, ground vehicle impact, and run-way debris, or even lightning strike, etc. To satisfy the aircraft damage tolerance design requirements, the designer has to understand the threatening level for different types of the aircraft structures, either metallic or composite. Exposing to low-velocity impacts may produce very serious internal damages such as delaminations and matrix cracks without leaving visible mark onto the impacted surfaces for composite structures. This internal damage can cause significant reduction in the load carrying capacity of structures. The semi-probabilistic method provides a practical and proper approximation to establish the impact-threat based energy cut-off level for the damage tolerance evaluation of the aircraft components. Thus, the probabilistic distribution of impact threat and the realistic impact energy level cut-offs are the essential establishments required for the certification of aircraft composite structures. A new survey of impact threat to civil aircraft in-service has recently been carried out based on field records concerning around 500 civil aircrafts (mainly single aisles) and more than 4.8 million flight hours. In total 1,006 damages caused by low-velocity impact events had been screened out from more than 8,000 records including impact dents, scratches, corrosions, delaminations, cracks etc. The impact threat dependency on the location of the aircraft structures and structural configuration was analyzed. Although the survey was mainly focusing on the metallic structures, the resulting low-energy impact data are believed likely representative to general civil aircraft, since the service environments and the maintenance operations are independent of the materials of the structures. The probability of impact damage occurrence (Po) and impact energy exceedance (Pe) are the two key parameters for describing the statistic distribution of impact threat. With the impact damage events from the survey, Po can be estimated as 2.1x10-4 per flight hour. Concerning the calculation of Pe, a numerical model was developed using the commercial FEA software ABAQUS to backward estimate the impact energy based on the visible damage characteristics. The relationship between the visible dent depth and impact energy was established and validated by drop-weight impact experiments. Based on survey results, Pe was calculated and assumed having a log-linear relationship versus the impact energy. As the product of two aforementioned probabilities, Po and Pe, it is reasonable and conservative to assume Pa=PoxPe=10-5, which indicates that the low-velocity impact events are similarly likely as the Limit Load events. Combing Pa with two probabilities Po and Pe obtained based on the field survey, the cutoff level of realistic impact energy was estimated and valued as 34 J. In summary, a new survey was recently done on field records of civil aircraft to investigate the probabilistic distribution of impact threat. Based on the data, two probabilities, Po and Pe, were obtained. Considering a conservative assumption of Pa, the cutoff energy level for the realistic impact energy has been determined, which provides potential applicability in damage tolerance certification of future civil aircraft.

Keywords: composite structure, damage tolerance, impact threat, probabilistic

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Authors: Palita Sooksamran, Katcharin Mahawong

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This research aims to offer the development of innovator teachers training curriculum to create instructional innovation according to active learning approach to enhance learning achievement. The research and development process is carried out in 3 steps: Step 1 The study of the needs necessary to develop a training curriculum: the inquiry was conducted by a sample of teachers in private schools in Phayao province that provide basic education at the level of education. Using a questionnaire of 176 people, the sample was defined using a table of random numbers and stratified samples, using the school as a random layer. Step 2 Training curriculum development: the tools used are developed training curriculum and curriculum assessments, with nine experts checking the appropriateness of the draft curriculum. The statistic used in data analysis is the average ( ) and standard deviation (S.D.) Step 3 study on effectiveness of training curriculum: one group pretest/posttest design applied in this study. The sample consisted of 35 teachers from private schools in Phayao province. The participants volunteered to attend on their own. The results of the research showed that: 1.The essential demand index needed with the list of essential needs in descending order is the choice and create of multimedia media, videos, application for learning management at the highest level ,Developed of multimedia, video and applications for learning management and selection of innovative learning management techniques and methods of solve the problem Learning , respectively. 2. The components of the training curriculum include principles, aims, scope of content, training activities, learning materials and resources, supervision evaluation. The scope of the curriculum consists of basic knowledge about learning management innovation, active learning, lesson plan design, learning materials and resources, learning measurement and evaluation, implementation of lesson plans into classroom and supervision and motoring. The results of the evaluation of quality of the draft training curriculum at the highest level. The Experts suggestion is that the purpose of the course should be used words that convey the results. 3. The effectiveness of training curriculum 1) Cognitive outcomes of the teachers in creating innovative learning management was at a high level of relative gain score. 2) The assessment results of learning management ability according to the active learning approach to enhance learning achievement by assessing from 2 education supervisor as a whole were very high , 3) Quality of innovation learning management based on active learning approach to enhance learning achievement of the teachers, 7 instructional Innovations were evaluated as outstanding works and 26 instructional Innovations passed the standard 4) Overall learning achievement of students who learned from 35 the sample teachers was at a high level of relative gain score 5) teachers' satisfaction towards the training curriculum was at the highest level.

Keywords: training curriculum, innovator teachers, active learning approach, learning achievement

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Authors: Jimena Alarcon, Andrea Llorens, Gabriel Hernandez, Maritza Palma, Lucia Navarrete

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The research has funding from the Government of Chile and is focused on defining the design of rural primary classroom that stimulates creativity. The relevance of the study consists of its capacity to define adequate educational spaces for the implementation of the design-based learning (DBL) methodology. This methodology promotes creativity and teamwork, generating a meaningful learning experience for students, based on the appreciation of their environment and the generation of projects that contribute positively to their communities; also, is an inquiry-based form of learning that is based on the integration of design thinking and the design process into the classroom. The main goal of the study is to define the design characteristics of rural primary school classrooms, associated with the implementation of the DBL methodology. Along with the change in learning strategies, it is necessary to change the educational spaces in which they develop. The hypothesis indicates that a change in the space and equipment of the classrooms based on the emotions of the students will motivate better learning results based on the implementation of a new methodology. In this case, the pedagogical dynamics require an important interaction between the participants, as well as an environment favorable to creativity. Methodologies from Kansei engineering are used to know the emotional variables associated with their definition. The study is done to 50 students between 6 and 10 years old (average age of seven years), 48% of men and 52% women. Virtual three-dimensional scale models and semantic differential tables are used. To define the semantic differential, self-applied surveys were carried out. Each survey consists of eight separate questions in two groups: question A to find desirable emotions; question B related to emotions. Both questions have a maximum of three alternatives to answer. Data were tabulated with IBM SPSS Statistics version 19. Terms referred to emotions are grouped into twenty concepts with a higher presence in surveys. To select the values obtained as part of the implementation of Semantic Differential, a number expected of 'chi-square test (x2)' frequency calculated for classroom space is considered lower limit. All terms over the N expected a cut point, are included to prepare tables for surveys to find a relation between emotion and space. Statistic contrast (Chi-Square) represents significance level ≥ 0, indicator that frequencies appeared are not random. Then, the most representative terms depend on the variable under study: a) definition of textures and color of vertical surfaces is associated with emotions such as tranquility, attention, concentration, creativity; and, b) distribution of the equipment of the rooms, with emotions associated with happiness, distraction, creativity, freedom. The main findings are linked to the generation of classrooms according to diverse DBL team dynamics. Kansei engineering is the appropriate methodology to know the emotions that students want to feel in the classroom space.

Keywords: creativity, design-based learning, education spaces, emotions

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Authors: Ana Paula Soares, Alexandrina Lages, Helena Oliveira, Francisco-Javier Gutiérrez-Domínguez, Marisa Lousada

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From an early age, exposure to a spoken language allows us to implicitly capture the structure underlying the succession of the speech sounds in that language and to segment it into meaningful units (words). Statistical learning (SL), i.e., the ability to pick up patterns in the sensory environment even without intention or consciousness of doing it, is thus assumed to play a central role in the acquisition of the rule-governed aspects of language and possibly to lie behind the language difficulties exhibited by children with development language disorder (DLD). The research conducted so far has, however, led to inconsistent results, which might stem from the behavioral tasks used to test SL. In a classic SL experiment, participants are first exposed to a continuous stream (e.g., syllables) in which, unbeknownst to the participants, stimuli are grouped into triplets that always appear together in the stream (e.g., ‘tokibu’, ‘tipolu’), with no pauses between each other (e.g., ‘tokibutipolugopilatokibu’) and without any information regarding the task or the stimuli. Following exposure, SL is assessed by asking participants to discriminate between triplets previously presented (‘tokibu’) from new sequences never presented together during exposure (‘kipopi’), i.e., to perform a two-alternative-forced-choice (2-AFC) task. Despite the widespread use of the 2-AFC to test SL, it has come under increasing criticism as it is an offline post-learning task that only assesses the result of the learning that had occurred during the previous exposure phase and that might be affected by other factors beyond the computation of regularities embedded in the input, typically the likelihood two syllables occurring together, a statistic known as transitional probability (TP). One solution to overcome these limitations is to assess SL as exposure to the stream unfolds using online techniques such as event-related potentials (ERP) that is highly sensitive to the time-course of the learning in the brain. Here we collected ERPs to examine the neurofunctional correlates of SL in preschool children with DLD, and chronological-age typical language development (TLD) controls who were exposed to an auditory stream in which eight three-syllable nonsense words, four of which presenting high-TPs and the other four low-TPs, to further analyze whether the ability of DLD and TLD children to extract-word-like units from the steam was modulated by words’ predictability. Moreover, to ascertain if the previous knowledge of the to-be-learned-regularities affected the neural responses to high- and low-TP words, children performed the auditory SL task, firstly, under implicit, and, subsequently, under explicit conditions. Although behavioral evidence of SL was not obtained in either group, the neural responses elicited during the exposure phases of the SL tasks differentiated children with DLD from children with TLD. Specifically, the results indicated that only children from the TDL group showed neural evidence of SL, particularly in the SL task performed under explicit conditions, firstly, for the low-TP, and, subsequently, for the high-TP ‘words’. Taken together, these findings support the view that children with DLD showed deficits in the extraction of the regularities embedded in the auditory input which might underlie the language difficulties.

Keywords: development language disorder, statistical learning, transitional probabilities, word segmentation

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Authors: Nicholas Anderson, Steven Petersen, Tom Bates, Val Anderson

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Under the multiple-use management regime established in the United States for federally owned lands, government agencies have come under pressure from commercial apiaries to grant permits for the summer pasturing of honeybees on government lands. Federal agencies have struggled to integrate honeybees into their management plans and have little information to make regulations that resolve how many colonies should be allowed in a single location and at what distance sets of hives should be placed. Many conservation groups have voiced their concerns regarding the introduction of honeybees to these natural lands, as they may outcompete and displace native pollinating species. Assessing the quality of an area in regard to its floral resources, pollen, and nectar can be important when attempting to create regulations for the integration of commercial honeybee operations into a native ecosystem. Areas with greater floral resources may be able to support larger numbers of honeybee colonies, while poorer resource areas may be less resilient to introduced disturbances. Attempts are made in this study to determine flower cover using high resolution drone imagery to help assess the floral resource availability to pollinators in high elevation, tall forb communities. This knowledge will help in determining the potential that different areas may have for honeybee pasturing and honey production. Roughly 700 images were captured at 23m above ground level using a drone equipped with a Sony QX1 RGB 20-megapixel camera. These images were stitched together using Pix4D, resulting in a 60m diameter high-resolution mosaic of a tall forb meadow. Using the program ENVI, a supervised maximum likelihood classification was conducted to calculate the percentage of total flower cover and flower cover by color (blue, white, and yellow). A complete vegetation inventory was taken on site, and the major flowers contributing to each color class were noted. An accuracy assessment was performed on the classification yielding an 89% overall accuracy and a Kappa Statistic of 0.855. With this level of accuracy, drones provide an affordable and time efficient method for the assessment of floral cover in large areas. The proximal step of this project will now be to determine the average pollen and nectar loads carried by each flower species. The addition of this knowledge will result in a quantifiable method of measuring pollen and nectar resources of entire landscapes. This information will not only help land managers determine stocking rates for honeybees on public lands but also has applications in the agricultural setting, aiding producers in the determination of the number of honeybee colonies necessary for proper pollination of fruit and nut crops.

Keywords: honeybee, flower, pollinator, remote sensing

Procedia PDF Downloads 106

Authors: Pi Hsia Liang

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The rise of Facebook, Twitter, and other social networks significantly changes in interconnections between people, enhancing the process of information dissemination and amplify the influence of that information. Therefore, to develop informational efficiency or signaling equilibrium type of information environment among social networks, without adverse selection effects, becomes an important issue. Thus, someone may post a piece of intentional information in relation to personal interest for trying to create marginal influence. Therefore, economists are seeking to establish theories of informational efficiency under social network environment in order to resolve adverse selection issues. Reputation could be one of the important factors in the process of creating informational efficiency. Additionally, investors how to process green information, or information of corporate social responsibility is a very important study. This study essentially employs experimental study for examining how investors use stock relevant green information in Facebook and various Taiwan local networks. Facebook, and blogs of Money DJ, Technews and cnYES, respectively, are the primary sites for this examination that also allow to differentiate effects between Facebook and other local social networks. Questionnaire is developed for such an experimental testing. Note that questionnaire allows this study to group, for example, decision frequency and length of time duration focusing on social networks that are used for discriminating investor type and competence of informed investor. This study selects 500 investors that can be separated into two respective 250 samples as the control group and 250 samples in such an experimental. The quantity of sample investor sufficiently results in statistic significance of this experimental study. The empirical results of this study can be used for explaining how financial information in relation to corporate social responsibility would be disseminated in social websites. Therefore, we can lead to better interpretation of price/earnings relationship type of study and empirical studies of green information usefulness or informational efficiency Note that the above mentioned empirical studies did not exist any social network and annual report of corporate social responsibility. This study expects to find the results that both network degree and network cluster significantly affected green information dissemination frequency. In other words, investors with more connections and with high clustered connections might exert a greater influence on their green information dissemination process. The preferred users of financial social networks could make better stock decision that could amplify effects of green information. In addition, Facebook would be more influential than other local Taiwan financial social networks, although Facebook is not a specialized financial social network. In other words, the popularity and reputation effects of Facebook significantly contribute to usefulness of green information and influence of green information. Third, it has a better chance to find rumor or cheating information in local Taiwan financial social networks than Facebook. In other words, Facebook possesses reputation effect, or a better informational efficiency. Or, even though Taiwan local financial social networks have marginal informational effects on stock price, because of shortage of informational efficiency or monitoring system, information could be a tool for those whom owning superior information.

Keywords: network effect on financial services, informational efficiency theory, social networks, social websites

Procedia PDF Downloads 213

Authors: Ana L. M. Pavan, Guilherme Giacomini, Allan F. F. Alves, Marcela De Oliveira, Fernando A. B. Neto, Maria E. D. Rosa, Andre P. Trindade, Diana R. De Pina

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Mammography is a worldwide image modality used to diagnose breast cancer, even in asymptomatic women. Due to its large availability, mammograms can be used to measure breast density and to predict cancer development. Women with increased mammographic density have a four- to sixfold increase in their risk of developing breast cancer. Therefore, studies have been made to accurately quantify mammographic breast density. In clinical routine, radiologists perform image evaluations through BIRADS (Breast Imaging Reporting and Data System) assessment. However, this method has inter and intraindividual variability. An automatic objective method to measure breast density could relieve radiologist’s workload by providing a first aid opinion. However, pectoral muscle is a high density tissue, with similar characteristics of fibroglandular tissues. It is consequently hard to automatically quantify mammographic breast density. Therefore, a pre-processing is needed to segment the pectoral muscle which may erroneously be quantified as fibroglandular tissue. The aim of this work was to develop an automatic algorithm to segment and extract pectoral muscle in digital mammograms. The database consisted of thirty medio-lateral oblique incidence digital mammography from São Paulo Medical School. This study was developed with ethical approval from the authors’ institutions and national review panels under protocol number 3720-2010. An algorithm was developed, in Matlab® platform, for the pre-processing of images. The algorithm uses image processing tools to automatically segment and extract the pectoral muscle of mammograms. Firstly, it was applied thresholding technique to remove non-biological information from image. Then, the Hough transform is applied, to find the limit of the pectoral muscle, followed by active contour method. Seed of active contour is applied in the limit of pectoral muscle found by Hough transform. An experienced radiologist also manually performed the pectoral muscle segmentation. Both methods, manual and automatic, were compared using the Jaccard index and Bland-Altman statistics. The comparison between manual and the developed automatic method presented a Jaccard similarity coefficient greater than 90% for all analyzed images, showing the efficiency and accuracy of segmentation of the proposed method. The Bland-Altman statistics compared both methods in relation to area (mm²) of segmented pectoral muscle. The statistic showed data within the 95% confidence interval, enhancing the accuracy of segmentation compared to the manual method. Thus, the method proved to be accurate and robust, segmenting rapidly and freely from intra and inter-observer variability. It is concluded that the proposed method may be used reliably to segment pectoral muscle in digital mammography in clinical routine. The segmentation of the pectoral muscle is very important for further quantifications of fibroglandular tissue volume present in the breast.

Keywords: active contour, fibroglandular tissue, hough transform, pectoral muscle

Procedia PDF Downloads 321

Authors: Zihan Geng, L. Quentin Dixon

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It has been proposed that early bilingual experience confers a number of advantages in the development of executive control mechanisms. Although the literature provides empirical evidence for bilingual benefits, some studies also reported null or mixed results. To make sense of these contradictory findings, the current review synthesize recent empirical studies investigating bilingual effects on children’s executive function and attention control. The publication time of the studies included in the review ranges from 2010 to 2017. The key searching terms are bilingual, bilingualism, children, executive control, executive function, and attention. The key terms were combined within each of the following databases: ERIC (EBSCO), Education Source, PsycINFO, and Social Science Citation Index. Studies involving both children and adults were also included but the analysis was based on the data generated only by the children group. The initial search yielded 137 distinct articles. Twenty-eight studies from 27 articles with a total of 3367 participants were finally included based on the selection criteria. The selective studies were then coded in terms of (a) the setting (i.e., the country where the data was collected), (b) the participants (i.e., age and languages), (c) sample size (i.e., the number of children in each group), (d) cognitive outcomes measured, (e) data collection instruments (i.e., cognitive tasks and tests), and (f) statistic analysis models (e.g., t-test, ANOVA). The results show that the majority of the studies were undertaken in western countries, mainly in the U.S., Canada, and the UK. A variety of languages such as Arabic, French, Dutch, Welsh, German, Spanish, Korean, and Cantonese were involved. In relation to cognitive outcomes, the studies examined children’s overall planning and problem-solving abilities, inhibition, cognitive complexity, working memory (WM), and sustained and selective attention. The results indicate that though bilingualism is associated with several cognitive benefits, the advantages seem to be weak, at least, for children. Additionally, the nature of the cognitive measures was found to greatly moderate the results. No significant differences are observed between bilinguals and monolinguals in overall planning and problem-solving ability, indicating that there is no bilingual benefit in the cooperation of executive function components at an early age. In terms of inhibition, the mixed results suggest that bilingual children, especially young children, may have better conceptual inhibition measured in conflict tasks, but not better response inhibition measured by delay tasks. Further, bilingual children showed better inhibitory control to bivalent displays, which resembles the process of maintaining two language systems. The null results were obtained for both cognitive complexity and WM, suggesting no bilingual advantage in these two cognitive components. Finally, findings on children’s attention system associate bilingualism with heightened attention control. Together, these findings support the hypothesis of cognitive benefits for bilingual children. Nevertheless, whether these advantages are observable appears to highly depend on the cognitive assessments. Therefore, future research should be more specific about the cognitive outcomes (e.g., the type of inhibition) and should report the validity of the cognitive measures consistently.

Keywords: attention, bilingual advantage, children, executive function

Procedia PDF Downloads 157

Authors: D. Mokatsanyane, J. Jansen Van Rensburg

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This paper analyses the influence and impact of COVID-19 on major agricultural commodity prices in South Africa. According to a World Bank report, the agricultural sector in South Africa has been unable to reduce the domestic food crisis that has been occurring over the past years, hence the increased rate of poverty, which is currently at 55.5 percent as of April 2020. Despite the significance of this sector, empirical findings concluded that the agricultural sector now accounts for 1.88 percent of South Africa's gross domestic product (GDP). Suggesting that the agricultural sector's contribution to the economy has diminished. Despite the low contribution to GDP, this primary sector continues to play an essential role in the economy. Over the past years, multiple factors have contributed to the soaring commodities prices, namely, climate shocks, biofuel demand, demand and supply shocks, the exchange rate, speculation in commodity derivative markets, trade restrictions, and economic growth. The COVID-19 outbursts have currently disturbed the supply and demand of staple crops. To address the disruption, the government has exempted the agricultural sector from closure and restrictions on movement. The spread of COVID-19 has caused turmoil all around the world, but mostly in developing countries. According to Statistic South Africa, South Africa's economy decreased by seven percent in 2020. Consequently, this has arguably made the agricultural sector the most affected sector since slumped economic growth negatively impacts food security, trade, farm livelihood, and greenhouse gas emissions. South Africa is sensitive to the fruitfulness of global food chains. Restrictions in trade, reinforced sanitary control systems, and border controls have influenced food availability and prices internationally. The main objective of this study is to evaluate the behavior of agricultural commodity prices pre-and during-COVID to determine the impact of volatility drivers on these crops. Historical secondary data of spot prices for the top five major commodities, namely white maize, yellow maize, wheat, soybeans, and sunflower seeds, are analysed from 01 January 2017 to 1 September 2021. The timeframe was chosen to capture price fluctuations between pre-COVID-19 (01 January 2017 to 23 March 2020) and during-COVID-19 (24 March 2020 to 01 September 2021). The Generalised Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (GARCH) statistical model will be used to measure the influence of price fluctuations. The results reveal that the commodity market has been experiencing volatility at different points. Extremely high volatility is represented during the first quarter of 2020. During this period, there was high uncertainty, and grain prices were very volatile. Despite the influence of COVID-19 on agricultural prices, the demand for these commodities is still existing and decent. During COVID-19, analysis indicates that prices were low and less volatile during the pandemic. The prices and returns of these commodities were low during COVID-19 because of the government's actions to respond to the virus's spread, which collapsed the market demand for food commodities.

Keywords: commodities market, commodity prices, generalised autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity (GARCH), Price volatility, SAFEX

Procedia PDF Downloads 138

Authors: Navid Ebrahmi Madiseh, Sina Esfandiarpour-Broujeni, Rahil Razeghi

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Introduction: Quantitative analysis of game-related statistical parameters is widely used to evaluate basketball performance at both individual and team levels. Non-free throw shooting plays a crucial role as the primary scoring method, holding significant importance in the game's technical aspect. It has been explored the predictive value of game-related statistics in relation to various contextual and situational variables. Many similarities and differences also have been found between different age groups and levels of competition. For instance, in the World Basketball Championships after the 2010 rule change, 2-point field goals distinguished winners from losers in women's games but not in men's games, and the impact of successful 3-point field goals on women's games was minimal. The study aimed to identify and compare discriminant shooting-related statistics between winning and losing teams in men’s and women’s FIBA-U19-Basketball-World-Cup-2023 tournaments. Method: Data from 112 observations (2 per game) of 16 teams (for each gender) in the FIBA-U19-Basketball-World-Cup-2023 were selected as samples. The data were obtained from the official FIBA website using Python. Specific information was extracted, organized into a DataFrame, and consisted of twelve variables, including shooting percentages, attempts, and scoring ratio for 3-pointers, mid-range shots, paint shots, and free throws. Made% = scoring type successful attempts/scoring type total attempts¬ (1)Free-throw-pts% (free throw score ratio) = (free throw score/total score) ×100 (2)Mid-pts% (mid-range score ratio) = (mid-range score/total score) ×100 (3) Paint-pts% (paint score ratio) = (Paint score/total score) ×100 (4) 3p_pts% (three-point score ratio) = (three-point score/total score) ×100 (5) Independent t-tests were used to examine significant differences in shooting-related statistical parameters between winning and losing teams for both genders. Statistical significance was p < 0.05. All statistical analyses were completed with SPSS, Version 18. Results: The results showed that 3p-made%, mid-pts%, paint-made%, paint-pts%, mid-attempts, and paint-attempts were significantly different between winners and losers in men (t=-3.465, P<0.05; t=3.681, P<0.05; t=-5.884, P<0.05; t=-3.007, P<0.05; t=2.549, p<0.05; t=-3.921, P<0.05). For women, significant differences between winners and losers were found for 3p-made%, 3p-pts%, paint-made%, and paint-attempt (t=-6.429, P<0.05; t=-1.993, P<0.05; t=-1.993, P<0.05; t=-4.115, P<0.05; t=02.451, P<0.05). Discussion: The research aimed to compare shooting-related statistics between winners and losers in men's and women's teams at the FIBA-U19-Basketball-World-Cup-2023. Results indicated that men's winners excelled in 3p-made%, paint-made%, paint-pts%, paint-attempts, and mid-attempt, consistent with previous studies. This study found that losers in men’s teams had higher mid-pts% than winners, which was inconsistent with previous findings. It has been indicated that winners tend to prioritize statistically efficient shots while forcing the opponent to take mid-range shots. In women's games, significant differences in 3p-made%, 3p-pts%, paint-made%, and paint-attempts were observed, indicating that winners relied on riskier outside scoring strategies. Overall, winners exhibited higher accuracy in paint and 3P shooting than losers, but they also relied more on outside offensive strategies. Additionally, winners acquired a higher ratio of their points from 3P shots, which demonstrates their confidence in their skills and willingness to take risks at this competitive level.

Keywords: gender, losers, shoot-statistic, U19, winners

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Authors: Lizinis Cassendra Frederick Dony, Jirom Jeremy Frederick Dony, Andrew Nicholas, Dewi Binti Tajuddin

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Starting and surviving a business is influenced by various entrepreneurship socio-economics activities. The study revealed that some of the entrepreneurs are not registered under SME but running own business as an intermediary with the private organization entrusted as “Self-Employed.” SME is known as “Small Medium Enterprise” contributes growth in Malaysia. Therefore, the entrepreneurialism business interest and entrepreneurial intention enhancing new spurring production, expanding employment opportunities, increasing productivity, promoting exports, stimulating innovation and providing new avenue in the business market place. This study has identified the unique contribution to the full understanding of complex mechanisms through entrepreneurship obstacles and education impacts on happiness and well-being to society. Moreover, “Ethnic” term has defined as a curious meaning refers to a classification of a large group of people customs implies to ancestral, racial, national, tribal, religious, linguistic and cultural origins. It is a social phenomenon.1 According to Sabah data population is amounting to 2,389,494 showed the predominant ethnic group being the Kadazan Dusun (18.4%) followed by Bajau (17.3%) and Malays (15.3%). For the year 2010, data statistic immigrants population report showed the amount to 239,765 people which cover 4% of the Sabahan’s population.2 Sabah has numerous group of talented entrepreneurs. The business environment among the minority ethnics are influenced with the business sentiment competition. The literature on ethnic entrepreneurship recognizes two main type entrepreneurships: the middleman and enclave entrepreneurs. According to Adam Smith,3 there are evidently some principles disposition to admire and maintain the distinction business rank status and cause most universal business sentiments. Due to credit barriers competition, the minority ethnics are losing the business market and since 2014, many illegal immigrants have been found to be using permits of the locals to operate businesses in Malaysia.4 The development of small business entrepreneurship among the minority ethnics in Sabah evidenced based variety of complex perception and differences concepts. The studies also confirmed the effects of heterogeneity on group decision and thinking caused partly by excessive pre-occupation with maintaining cohesiveness and the presence of cultural diversity in groups should reduce its probability.5 The researchers proposed that there are seven success determinants particularly to determine the involvement of minority ethnics comparing to the involvement of the immigrants in Sabah. Although, (SMEs) have always been considered the backbone of the economy development, the minority ethnics are often categorized it as the “second-choice.’ The study showed that illegal immigrants entrepreneur imposed a burden on Sabahan social programs as well as the prison, court and health care systems. The tension between the need for cheap labor and the impulse to protect Malaysian in Sabah workers, entrepreneurs and taxpayers, among the subjects discussed in this study. This is clearly can be advantages and disadvantages to the Sabah economic development.

Keywords: entrepreneurial firms, self-employed, immigrants, minority ethnic, economic impacts

Procedia PDF Downloads 384

Authors: A. C. Facin, M. C. Maronezi , M. P. Menezes, G. L. Montanhim, L. Pavan, M. A. R. Feliciano, R. P. Nociti, R. A. R. Uscategui, P. C. Moraes

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The incidence of brachycephalic syndrome (BS) in the clinical routine of small animals has increased significantly giving the higher proportion of brachycephalic pets in the last years and has been considered as an animal welfare problem. The treatment of BS is surgical and the clinical signs related can be considerably attenuated. Nevertheless, the systemic effects of the BS are still poorly reported and little is known about these when the surgical correction is not performed early. Affected dogs are more likely to develop cardiopulmonary, gastrointestinal and sleep disorders in which the chronic hypoxemia plays a major role. This syndrome is compared with the obstructive sleep apnea (OSA) in humans, both considered as causes of systemic and metabolic dysfunction. Among the several consequences of the BS little is known if the syndrome also affects the hepatic tissue of brachycephalic patients. Elastography is a promising ultrasound technique that evaluates tissue elasticity and has been recently used with the purpose of diagnosis of liver fibrosis. In medicine, it is a growing concern regarding the hepatic injury of patients affected by OSA. This prospective study hypothesizes if there is any consequence of BS in the hepatic parenchyma of brachycephalic dogs that don’t receive any surgical treatment. This study was conducted following the approval of the Animal Ethics and Welfare Committee of the Faculdade de Ciências Agrárias e Veterinárias, UNESP, Campus Jaboticabal, Brazil (protocol no 17944/2017) and funded by Sao Paulo Research Foundation (FAPESP, process no 2017/24809-4). The methodology was based in ARFI elastography using the ACUSON S2000/SIEMENS device, with convex multifrequential transducer and specific software as well as clinical evaluation of the syndrome, in order to determine if they can be used as a prognostic non-invasive tool. On quantitative elastography, it was collected three measures of shear wave velocity (meters per second) and depth in centimeters in the left lateral, left medial, right lateral, right medial and caudate lobe of the liver. The brachycephalic patients, 16 pugs and 30 french bulldogs, were classified using a previously established 4-point functional grading system based on clinical evaluation before and after a 3-minute exercise tolerance test already established and validated. The control group was based on the same features collected in 22 beagles. The software R version 3.3.0 was used for the analysis and the significance level was set at 0.05. The data were analysed for normality of residuals and homogeneity of variances by Shapiro-Wilks test. Comparisons of parametric continuous variables between breeds were performed by using ANOVA with a post hoc test for pair wise comparison. The preliminary results show significant statistic differences between the brachycephalic groups and the control group in all lobes analysed (p ≤ 0,05), with higher values of shear wave velocities in the hepatic tissue of brachycephalic dogs. In this context, the results obtained in this study contributes to the understanding of BS as well as its consequences in our patients, reflecting in evidence that one more systemic consequence of the syndrome may occur in brachycephalic patients, which was not related in the veterinary literature yet.

Keywords: airway obstruction, brachycephalic airway obstructive syndrome, hepatic injury, obstructive sleep apnea

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Authors: L. Salomon, P. Sklenar

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The Andes hold the highest plant species diversity in the world. How this occurred is one of the most intriguing questions in studies addressing the origin and patterning of plant diversity worldwide. Recently, the explosive adaptive radiations found in high Andean groups have been pointed as triggers to this spectacular diversity. The Andes is the species-richest area for the biggest genus from the Asteraceae family: Senecio. There, the genus presents an incredible diversity of species, striking growth form variation, and large niche span. Even when some studies tried to disentangle the evolutionary story for some Andean species in Senecio, they obtained partially resolved and low supported phylogenies, as expected for recently radiated groups. The high-throughput sequencing (HTS) approaches have proved to be a powerful tool answering phylogenetic questions in those groups whose evolutionary stories are recent and traditional techniques like Sanger sequencing are not informative enough. Although these tools have been used to understand the evolution of an increasing number of Andean groups, nowadays, their scope has not been applied for Senecio. This project aims to contribute to a better knowledge of the mechanisms shaping the hyper diversity of Senecio in the Andean region, using HTS focusing on Senecio ser. Culcitium (Asteraceae), recently recircumscribed. Firstly, reconstructing a highly resolved and supported phylogeny, and after assessing the role of allopatric differentiation, hybridization, and genome duplication in the diversification of the group. Using the Hyb-Seq approach, combining target enrichment using Asteraceae COS loci baits and genome skimming, more than 100 new accessions were generated. HybPhyloMaker and HybPiper pipelines were used for the phylogenetic analyses, and another pipeline in development (Paralogue Wizard) was used to deal with paralogues. RAxML was used to generate gene trees and Astral for species tree reconstruction. Phyparts were used to explore as first step of gene tree discordance along the clades. Fully resolved with moderated supported trees were obtained, showing Senecio ser. Culcitium as monophyletic. Within the group, some species formed well-supported clades with morphologically related species, while some species would not have exclusive ancestry, in concordance with previous studies using amplified fragment length polymorphism (AFLP) showing geographical differentiation. Discordance between gene trees was detected. Paralogues were detected for many loci, indicating possible genome duplications; ploidy level estimation using flow cytometry will be carried out during the next months in order to identify the role of this process in the diversification of the group. Likewise, TreeSetViz package for Mesquite, hierarchical likelihood ratio congruence test using Concaterpillar, and Procrustean Approach to Cophylogeny (PACo), will be used to evaluate the congruence among different inheritance patterns. In order to evaluate the influence of hybridization and Incomplete Lineage Sorting (ILS) in each resultant clade from the phylogeny, Joly et al.'s 2009 method in a coalescent scenario and Paterson’s D-statistic will be performed. Even when the main discordance sources between gene trees were not explored in detail yet, the data show that at least to some degree, processes such as genome duplication, hybridization, and/or ILS could be involved in the evolution of the group.

Keywords: adaptive radiations, Andes, genome duplication, hybridization, Senecio

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Authors: Ainura Tursunalieva, Irene Hudson

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Continuous improvement of both the quality and safety of health care is an important goal in Australia and internationally. The intensive care unit (ICU) receives patients with a wide variety of and severity of illnesses. Accurately identifying patients at risk of developing complications or dying is crucial to increasing healthcare efficiency. Thus, it is essential for clinicians and researchers to have a robust framework capable of evaluating the risk profile of a patient. ICU scoring systems provide such a framework. The Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation III and the Simplified Acute Physiology Score II are ICU scoring systems frequently used for assessing the severity of acute illness. These scoring systems collect multiple risk factors for each patient including physiological measurements then render the assessment outcomes of individual risk factors into a single numerical value. A higher score is related to a more severe patient condition. Furthermore, the Mortality Probability Model II uses logistic regression based on independent risk factors to predict a patient’s probability of mortality. An important overlooked limitation of SAPS II and MPM II is that they do not, to date, include interaction terms between a patient’s vital signs. This is a prominent oversight as it is likely there is an interplay among vital signs. The co-existence of certain conditions may pose a greater health risk than when these conditions exist independently. One barrier to including such interaction terms in predictive models is the dimensionality issue as it becomes difficult to use variable selection. We propose an innovative scoring system which takes into account a dependence structure among patient’s vital signs, such as systolic and diastolic blood pressures, heart rate, pulse interval, and peripheral oxygen saturation. Copulas will capture the dependence among normally distributed and skewed variables as some of the vital sign distributions are skewed. The estimated dependence parameter will then be incorporated into the traditional scoring systems to adjust the points allocated for the individual vital sign measurements. The same dependence parameter will also be used to create an alternative copula-based model for predicting a patient’s probability of mortality. The new copula-based approach will accommodate not only a patient’s trajectories of vital signs but also the joint dependence probabilities among the vital signs. We hypothesise that this approach will produce more stable assessments and lead to more time efficient and accurate predictions. We will use two data sets: (1) 250 ICU patients admitted once to the Chui Regional Hospital (Kyrgyzstan) and (2) 37 ICU patients’ agitation-sedation profiles collected by the Hunter Medical Research Institute (Australia). Both the traditional scoring approach and our copula-based approach will be evaluated using the Brier score to indicate overall model performance, the concordance (or c) statistic to indicate the discriminative ability (or area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve), and goodness-of-fit statistics for calibration. We will also report discrimination and calibration values and establish visualization of the copulas and high dimensional regions of risk interrelating two or three vital signs in so-called higher dimensional ROCs.

Keywords: copula, intensive unit scoring system, ROC curves, vital sign dependence

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Authors: Mazlum Çelik, Burcu Gürkan Ercan, Ahmet Ayaz, Hilal Yakut İpekoğlu, Furkan Baltacı, Mustafa Kurtoğlu, Bilge Kalkavan, Sinem Küçükyılmaz, Hikmet Çağrı Yardımcı, Şeyma Sevgican, Cemile Gökçe Elkovan, Bilal Çayır, Mehmet Emin Düzcan

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The earthquake research literature generally examines emotional, cognitive, and behavioral responses after an earthquake. Studies concerning the behavioral responses to earthquakes reveal that after the earthquake, people either flee in a panic or do not act according to the stereotype that they act irrationally and anti-socially and sometimes give rational and adaptive reactions. However, the rareness of research dealing with human behavior experiencing the earthquake moment makes it necessary to pay particular attention to these behavior patterns. In this direction, this study aims to examine human behavior indoors in case of rising earthquake intensity. In Turkey, located on geography in the earthquake zone, devastating earthquakes took place, such as in "Istanbul" with a magnitude of 7.4 in 1999 and in "Elazığ" with a magnitude of 6.8 in 2020. Occurred recently, the "Kahramanmaraş" earthquake affected 11 provinces, with a magnitude of 7.7 and 7.6 in 2023. In addition, there is expected to be a devastating earthquake in Istanbul, experts warn. For this reason, it is essential to understand human behavior for disaster risk. Management and pre-disaster preparedness to be effective and efficient and to take realistic measures to protect human life. Mazlum Çelik, Burcu Gürkan Ercan, Ahmet Ayaz, Hilal Yakut İpekoğlu, Furkan Baltacı, Mustafa Kurtoğlu, Bilge Kalkavan, Sinem Küçükyılmaz, Hikmet Çağrı Yardımcı, Şeyma Sevgican, Cemile Gökçe Elkovan, Bilal Çayır, Mehmet Emin Düzcan. In this study, which is currently part of a project supported by The Scientific and Technological Council of Turkey (TUBITAK), the indoor recordings during the earthquakes in Elazig on January 24, 2020, and in İzmir on October 30, 2020, are examined, and the people's behavior during the earthquake is analyzed. In this direction, video recordings taken from the YouTube archives of İzmir and Elazığ Disaster and Emergency Management Presidency (AFAD) Directorates and metropolitan municipalities are examined. The researchers have created an observation form in line with the information in the relevant literature to classify people's behavior during an earthquake. It is intended to determine the behavioral patterns by classifying according to the form and video analysis of the people heading toward the door, remaining stable, taking protective measures, turning to people, and engaging in "other" behaviors outside of these behaviors during the earthquake. A total of 60 video analyzes are carried out from Elazığ and İzmir. The descriptive statistic has been used with the SPSS 23.0 package program in the data analysis. It is found that in the event of an increase in the severity of the earthquake, unlike Elazığ, in İzmir, protective action is preferred to the act of remaining stable. In addition, it is observed that with the increase in the earthquake's intensity, women attempt to take more protective action while men head toward the door. In contrast, a rise is observed in the behavior of young people heading toward the door and taking protective actions, while there is a decrease in their behavior directing to people. These findings, unlike the literature, reveal that human behavior during earthquakes cannot be reduced to a single behavior pattern, such as drop-cover-hold-on. The results show that it is necessary to understand the behaviors of individuals during the earthquake and to develop practical policy proposals for combating earthquakes by considering sociocultural, geographical, and demographic variables.

Keywords: descriptive analysis, earthquake, human behaviour, disaster policy.

Procedia PDF Downloads 62