Search results for: seismic loss assessment

Authors: Ankit Tyagi, Reet Kamal Tiwari, Naveen James

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In India, landslides are the most frequently occurring disaster in the regions of the Himalayas and the Western Ghats. The steep slopes and land use in these areas are quite apprehensive. In the recent past, many landslide hazard zonation (LHZ) works have been carried out in the Himalayas. However, the preparation of LHZ maps considering temporal factors such as seismic ground shaking, seismic amplification at surface level, and rainfall are limited. Hence this study presents a comprehensive use of the multi-criteria decision-making (MCDM) method in landslide risk assessment. In this research, we conducted both geospatial and geotechnical analysis to minimize the danger of landslides. Geospatial analysis is performed using high-resolution satellite data to produce landslide causative factors which were given weightage using the MCDM method. The geotechnical analysis includes a slope stability check, which was done to determine the potential landslide slope. The landslide risk map can provide useful information which helps people to understand the risk of living in an area.

Keywords: landslide hazard zonation, PHA, AHP, GIS

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Authors: Dawei Shen, Ming Xu, Pengfei Liu

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The joints between simply supported bridge decks and abutments need to be regularly repaired, which would greatly increase the cost during the service life of the bridge. Simply supported girder bridges suffered the most severe damage during earthquakes. Another type of bridge, the integral bridge, of which the superstructure and abutment are rigidly connected, was also used in some European countries. Because no bearings or joints exit in the integral bridge, this type of bridge could significantly reduce maintenance requirements and costs. However, conventional integral bridge usually result in high earth pressure on the abutment and surface settlement in the backfill. To solve these problems, a new type of integral bridge, geosynthetic-reinforced soil (GRS) integral bridge, was come up in recent years. This newly invented bridge has not been used in engineering practices. There was a lack of research on the seismic behavior of the conventional and new type of integral abutments. In addition, no common design code could be found for the calculation of seismic pressure of soil behind the abutment. This paper developed a dynamic constitutive model, which can consider the soil behaviors under cyclic loading. Numerical analyses of the seismic response of a full height integral bridge and GRS integral bridge were carried out using the two-dimensional numerical code, FLAC. A parametric study was also performed to investigate the soil-structure interaction. The results are presented below. The seismic responses of GRS integral bridge together with conventional simply supported bridge, GRS conventional bridge and conventional integral bridge were investigated. The results show that the GRS integral bridge holds the highest seismic stability, followed by conventional integral bridge, GRS simply supported bridge and conventional simply supported bridge. Compared with the integral bridge with 1 m thick abutments, the GRS integral bridge with 0.4 m thick abutments is subjected to a smaller bending moment, and the natural frequency and horizontal displacement remains almost the same. Geosynthetic-reinforcement will be more effective when the abutment becomes thinner or the abutment is higher.

Keywords: geosynthetic-reinforced soil integral bridge, nonlinear hysteretic model, numerical analysis, seismic response

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Authors: Saeed Ur Rehman Chaudhry

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The objectives of the study are to reconstruct sequence stratigraphic framework and petrophysical analysis of the reservoir marked by using sequence stratigraphy of Sawan Gas Field. The study area lies in Central Indus Basin, District Khairpur, Sindh province, Pakistan. The study area lies tectonically in an extensional regime. Lower Goru Formation and Sembar Formation act as a reservoir and source respectively. To achieve objectives, data set of seismic lines, consisting of seismic lines PSM96-114, PSM96-115, PSM96-133, PSM98-201, PSM98-202 and well logs of Sawan-01, Sawan-02 and Gajwaro-01 has been used. First of all interpretation of seismic lines has been carried out. Interpretation of seismic lines shows extensional regime in the area and cut entire Cretaceous section. Total of seven reflectors has been marked on each seismic line. Lower Goru Formation is thinning towards west. Seismic lines also show eastward tilt of stratigraphy due to uplift at the western side. Sequence stratigraphic reconstruction has been done by integrating seismic and wireline log data. Total of seven sequence boundaries has been interpreted between the top of Chiltan Limestone to Top of Lower Goru Formation. It has been observed on seismic lines that Sembar Formation initially generated shelf margin profile and then ramp margin on which Lower Goru deposition took place. Shelf edge deltas and slope fans have been observed on seismic lines, and signatures of slope fans are also observed on wireline logs as well. Total of six sequences has been interpreted. Stratigraphic and sequence stratigraphic correlation has been carried out by using Sawan 01, Sawan 02 and Gajwaro 01 and a Low Stand Systems tract (LST) within Lower Goru C sands has been marked as a zone of interest. The petrophysical interpretation includes shale volume, effective porosity, permeability, saturation of water and hydrocarbon. On the basis of good effective porosity and hydrocarbon saturation petrophysical analysis confirms that the LST in Sawan-01 and Sawan-02 has good hydrocarbon potential.

Keywords: petrophysical analysis, reservoir potential, Sawan Gas Field, sequence stratigraphy

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Authors: Saadia Drissi

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The cloud computing is an innovative paradigm that introduces several changes in technology that have resulted a new ways for cloud providers to deliver their services to cloud consumers mainly in term of security risk assessment, thus, adapting a current risk assessment tools to cloud computing is a very difficult task due to its several characteristics that challenge the effectiveness of risk assessment approaches. As consequence, there is a need of risk assessment model adapted to cloud computing. This paper requires a new risk assessment model based on multi-agent system and AHP model as fundamental steps towards the development of flexible risk assessment approach regarding cloud consumers.

Keywords: cloud computing, risk assessment model, multi-agent system, AHP model, cloud consumer

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Authors: Viola Hubačová Pirová

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The assessment of psychomotor development allows us to identify children with motor delays, helps us to monitor progress in time and prepare suitable intervention programs. The foundation of psychomotor development lies in pre-school age and is crucial for child´s further cognitive and social development. Many assessment tools of psychomotor development have been developed over the years. Some of them are easy screening tools; others are more complex and sophisticated. The purpose of this review is to describe the history of psychomotor assessment, specify preschool children´s psychomotor evaluation and review eight psychomotor development assessment tools for preschool children (Denver II., DEMOST-PRE, TGMD -2/3, BOT-2, MABC-2, PDMS-2, KTK, MOT 4-6). The selection of test depends on purpose and context in which is the assessment planned.

Keywords: assessment of psychomotor development, preschool children, psychomotor development, review of assessment tools

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Authors: Mohamed Osama Hassaan

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Recent earthquakes have demonstrated the vulnerability of older reinforced concrete buildings to fail under imposed seismic loads. Accordingly, the need to strengthen existing reinforced concrete structures, mainly columns, to resist high seismic loads has increased. Conventional strengthening techniques such as using steel plates, steel angles and concrete overlay are used to achieve the required increase in strength or ductility. However, techniques using advanced composite materials are established. The column's splice zone is the most critical zone that failed under seismic loads. There are three types of splice zone failure that can be observed under seismic action, namely, Failure of the flexural plastic hinge region, shear failure and failure due to short lap splice. A lapped splice transfers the force from one bar to another through the concrete surrounding both bars. At any point along the splice, force is transferred from one bar by a bond to the surrounding concrete and also by a bond to the other bar of the pair forming the splice. The integrity of the lap splice depends on the development of adequate bond length. The R.C. columns built in seismic regions are expected to undergo a large number of inelastic deformation cycles while maintaining the overall strength and stability of the structure. This can be ensured by proper confinement of the concrete core. The last type of failure is focused in this research. There are insufficient studies that address the problem of strengthening existing reinforced concrete columns at splice zone through confinement with “advanced composite materials". Accordingly, more investigation regarding the seismic behavior of strengthened reinforced concrete columns using the new generation of composite materials such as (Carbon fiber polymer), (Glass fiber polymer), (Armiad fiber polymer).

Keywords: strengthening, columns, advanced composite materials, earthquakes

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Authors: Yavuz Yardım

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The most important criteria for structural engineering is the structure’s ability to carry intended loads safely. The key element of this ability is mathematical modeling of really loadings situation into a simple loads input to use in structure analysis and design. Amongst many different types of loads, the most challenging load is earthquake load. It is possible magnitude is unclear and timing is unknown. Therefore the concept of intended loads and safety have been built on experience of previous earthquake impact on the structures. Understanding and developing these concepts is achieved by investigating performance of the structures after real earthquakes. Damage after an earthquake provide results of thousands of full-scale structure test under a real seismic load. Thus, Earthquakes reveille all the weakness, mistakes and deficiencies of analysis, design rules and practice. This study deals with lesson learnt from earthquake recoded last two decades in Turkey. Results of investigation after several earthquakes exposes many deficiencies in structural detailing, inappropriate design, wrong architecture layout, and mainly mistake in construction practice.

Keywords: earthquake, seismic assessment, RC buildings, building performance

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Authors: Asad Naeem, Mohamed Nour Eldin, Jinkoo Kim

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In this study, the seismic performance and life cycle cost (LCC) are evaluated of the structure retrofitted with the damped cable system (DCS). The DCS is a seismic retrofit system composed of a high-strength steel cable and pressurized viscous dampers. The analysis model of the system is first derived using various link elements in SAP2000, and fragility curves of the structure retrofitted with the DCS and viscous dampers are obtained using incremental dynamic analyses. The analysis results show that the residual displacements of the structure equipped with the DCS are smaller than those of the structure with retrofitted with only conventional viscous dampers, due to the enhanced stiffness/strength and self-centering capability of the damped cable system. The fragility analysis shows that the structure retrofitted with the DCS has the least probability of reaching the specific limit states compared to the bare structure and the structure with viscous damper. It is also observed that the initial cost of the DCS method required for the seismic retrofit is smaller than that of the structure with viscous dampers and that the LCC of the structure equipped with the DCS is smaller than that of the structure with viscous dampers.

Keywords: damped cable system, fragility curve, life cycle cost, seismic retrofit, self-centering

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Authors: Ceyhun Aksoylu, Rifat Sezer

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In this study, a strengthening method applicable without any evacuation process was investigated. In this analytical study, the pushover analysis results carry out by using the software of SAP2000. For this purpose, 1/3 scaled, 1-bay and 2-story R/C seven frames having usual deficiencies faults produced, one of which were not strengthened, but having brick-infill wall and the other 3 frames with infill walls strengthened with various shaped of high strength-precast diagonal concrete panels. The prepared analytical models investigated under reversed-cyclic loading that resembles the seismic effect. As a result of the analytical study, the properties of the reinforced concrete frames, such as strength, rigidity, energy dissipation capacity, etc. were determined and the strengthened models were compared with the unstrengthened one having the same properties. As a result of this study, the contributions of precast diagonal concrete applied on the infill walls of the existing frame systems against seismic effects were introduced with its advantages and disadvantages.

Keywords: RC frame, seismic effect, infill wall, strengthening, precast diagonal concrete panel, pushover analysis

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Authors: Nicolò Vaiana, Giorgio Serino

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In this paper, an advanced Nonlinear Exponential Model (NEM), able to simulate the uniaxial dynamic behavior of seismic isolators having a continuously decreasing tangent stiffness with increasing displacement in the relatively large displacements range and a hardening or softening behavior at large displacements, is presented. The mathematical model is validated by comparing the experimental force-displacement hysteresis loops obtained during cyclic tests, conducted on a helical wire rope isolator and a recycled rubber-fiber reinforced bearing, with those predicted analytically. Good agreement between the experimental and simulated results shows that the proposed model can be an effective numerical tool to predict the force-displacement relationship of seismic isolation devices within the large displacements range. Compared to the widely used Bouc-Wen model, unable to simulate the response of seismic isolators at large displacements, the proposed one allows to avoid the numerical solution of a first order nonlinear ordinary differential equation for each time step of a nonlinear time history analysis, thus reducing the computation effort. Furthermore, the proposed model can simulate the smooth transition of the hysteresis loops from small to large displacements by adopting only one set of five parameters determined from the experimental hysteresis loops having the largest amplitude.

Keywords: base isolation, hardening behavior, nonlinear exponential model, seismic isolators, softening behavior

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Authors: N. Zhang, J. S. Kuang, S. Mogili

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To investigate seismic performance of beam-column knee joints, four full-scale reinforced concrete beam-column knee joints, which were fabricated to simulate those in as-built RC frame buildings designed to ACI 318-14 and ACI-ASCE 352R-02, were tested under reversed cyclic loading. In the experimental programme, particular emphasis was given to the effect of horizontal reinforcement (in format of inverted U-shape bars) on the shear strength and ductility capacity of knee joints. Test results are compared with those predicted by four seismic design codes, including ACI 318-14, EC8, NZS3101 and GB50010. It is seen that the current design codes of practice cannot accurately predict the shear strength of seismically designed knee joints.

Keywords: large-scale tests, RC beam-column knee joints, seismic performance, shear strength

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Authors: Chang Seok Lee, Sang Whan Han, Girbo Ko, Debbie Kim

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Existing reinforced concrete structures are designed and built without considering seismic loads. The columns in such buildings generally exhibit widely spaced transverse reinforcements without using seismic hooks. Due to the insufficient reinforcement details in columns, brittle shear failure is expected in columns that may cause pre-mature building collapse mechanism during earthquakes. In order to retrofit those columns, the accurate seismic behavior of the columns needs to be predicted with proper analytical models. In this study, an analytical model is proposed for accurately simulating the cyclic behavior of shear critical columns. The parameters for pinching and cyclic deterioration in strength and stiffness are calibrated using test data of column specimens failed by shear.

Keywords: analytical model, cyclic deterioration, existing reinforced concrete columns, shear failure

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Authors: Trevor N. Haas, Thomas van der Kolf

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South Africa has some regions which are susceptible to moderate seismic activity. A peak ground acceleration of between 0.1g and 0.15g can be expected in the southern parts of the Western Cape. Unreinforced Masonry (URM) is commonly used as a construction material for 2 to 5 storey buildings in underprivileged areas in and around Cape Town. URM is typically regarded as the material most vulnerable to damage when subjected to earthquake excitation. In this study, a three-storey URM building was analysed by applying seven earthquake time-histories, which can be expected to occur in South Africa using a finite element approach. Experimental data was used to calibrate the in- and out-of-plane stiffness of the URM. The results indicated that tensile cracking of the in-plane piers was the dominant failure mode. It is concluded that URM buildings of this type are at risk of failure especially if sufficient ductility is not provided. The results also showed that connection failure must be investigated further.

Keywords: URM, seismic analysis, FEM, Cape Town

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Authors: Filipa Cortez, Vanessa Pereira

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Introduction: The main challenge of obesity treatment is long-term weight loss maintenance. The 3 phases method is a weight loss program that combines a low carb and moderately high-protein diet, food supplements and a weekly one-to-one consultation with a certified nutritionist. Sustained weight control is the ultimate goal of phase 3. Success criterion was the minimum loss of 10% of initial weight and its maintenance after 12 months. Objective: The aim of this study was to identify factors associated with successful weight loss maintenance after 12 months at the end of 3 phases method. Methods: The study included 199 subjects that achieved their weight loss goal (phase 3). Weight and body mass index (BMI) were obtained at the baseline and every week until the end of the program. Therapeutic adherence was measured weekly on a Likert scale from 1 to 5. Subjects were considered in compliance with nutritional recommendation and supplementation when their classification was ≥ 4. After 12 months of the method, the current weight and number of previous weight-loss attempts were collected by telephone interview. The statistical significance was assumed at p-values < 0.05. Statistical analyses were performed using SPSS TM software v.21. Results: 65.3% of subjects met the success criterion. The factors which displayed a significant weight loss maintenance prediction were: greater initial percentage weight loss (OR=1.44) during the weight loss intervention and a higher number of consultations in phase 3 (OR=1.10). Conclusion: These findings suggest that the percentage weight loss during the weight loss intervention and the number of consultations in phase 3 may facilitate maintenance of weight loss after the 3 phases method.

Keywords: obesity, weight maintenance, low-carbohydrate diet, dietary supplements

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Authors: Faramarz Khoshnoudian, Saeed Vosoughiyan

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The main goal of this article is to clarify the soil-structure interaction (SSI) effects on the seismic performance of steel moment resisting frame buildings which are rested on soft soil and equipped with viscous fluid dampers (VFDs). For this purpose, detailed structural models of a ten-story SMRF with VFDs excluding and including the SSI are constructed first. In order to simulate the dynamic response of the foundation, in this paper, the simple cone model is applied. Then, the nonlinear time-history analysis of the models is conducted using three kinds of earthquake excitations with different intensities. The analysis results have demonstrated that the SSI effects on the seismic performance of a structure equipped with VFDs and supported by rigid foundation on soft soil need to be considered. Also VFDs designed based on rigid foundation hypothesis fail to achieve the expected seismic objective while SSI goes into effect.

Keywords: nonlinear time-history analysis, soil-structure interaction, steel moment resisting frame building, viscous fluid dampers

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Authors: B. Mohebi, N. Asadi, F. Kazemi

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Inelastic deformation of the brace in Special Concentrically Braced Frame (SCBF) creates inelastic damages on gusset plate connections such as buckling at edges. In this study, to improve the seismic performance of SCBFs connections, an analytical study was undertaken. To improve the gusset plate connection, this study proposes using ‎edge’s stiffeners in both sides of gusset plate.‎ For this purpose, in order to examine edge’s stiffeners effect on gusset plate connections, two groups of modeling with and without considering edge’s stiffener and different types of braces were modeled using ABAQUS software. The results show that considering the edge’s stiffener reduces the equivalent plastic strain values at a connection region of gusset plate with beam and column, which can improve the seismic performance of gusset plate. Furthermore, considering the edge’s stiffeners significantly decreases the strain concentration at regions where gusset plates have been connected to beam and column. Moreover, considering 2t_pl distance causes reduction in the plastic strain.

Keywords: special concentrically braced frame, gusset plate, edge's stiffener, seismic performance

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Authors: Shahzad Yousaf, Imran Shafi

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This paper presents a new method for calculation of pressure loss coefficients by use of the artificial neural network (ANN) in tee junctions. Geometry and flow parameters are feed into ANN as the inputs for purpose of training the network. Efficacy of the network is demonstrated by comparison of the experimental and ANN based calculated data of pressure loss coefficients for combining flows in a tee junction. Reynolds numbers ranging from 200 to 14000 and discharge ratios varying from minimum to maximum flow for calculation of pressure loss coefficients have been used. Pressure loss coefficients calculated using ANN are compared to the models from literature used in junction flows. The results achieved after the application of ANN agrees reasonably to the experimental values.

Keywords: artificial neural networks, combining flow, pressure loss coefficients, solar collector tee junctions

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Authors: Armin Khaghani Boroujeni, Leila Dehghani, Parham Talebi Boroujeni, Sahar Rostamian, Ali Asilian

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Background: Hair loss is a common complaint observed in both genders. Androgenetic alopecia is known pattern for hair loss. To assess new regenerative strategies (PRP, A-SC-BT, conditioned media, exosome-based treatments) compared to conventional therapies for hair loss or hair regeneration, an updated review was undertaken. To address this issue, we carried out this systematic review to comprehensively evaluate the efficacy of cell-based therapies on hair loss. Methods: The available online databases, including ISI Web of Science, Scopus, and PubMed, were searched systematically up to February 2022. The quality assessment of included studies was done using the Cochrane Collaboration's tool. Results: As a result, a total of 90 studies involving 2345 participants were included in the present study. The enrolled studies were conducted between 2010 and 2022. The subjects’ mean age ranged from 19 to 55.11 years old. Approaches using platelet rich plasma (PRP) provide a beneficial impact on hair regrowth. However, other cell-based therapies, including stem cell transplant, stem cell-derived conditioned medium, and stem cell-derived exosomes, revealed conflicting evidence. Conclusion: However, cell-based therapies for hair loss are still in their infancy, and more robust clinical studies are needed to better evaluate their mechanisms of action, efficacy, safety, benefits, and limitations. In this review, we provide the resources to the latest clinical studies and a more detailed description of the latest clinical studies concerning cell-based therapies in hair loss.

Keywords: cell-based therapy, exosome, hair restoration, systematic review

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Authors: Fouzia Qamar, Shahida Hasnain

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The objective of the present study was to evaluate the possible role of Agrobacterium tumefaciens as a possible insect biocontrol agent. Pests selected for the present challenge were adult males of Periplaneta americana and last instar larvae of Pieris brassicae and Spodoptera litura. Different ranges of bacterial doses were selected and tested to score the mortalities of the insects after 24 hours, for the lethal dose estimation studies. Mode of application for the inoculation of the bacteria, was the microinjection technique. The evaluation of the possible entomopathogenic carrying attribute of bacterial Ti plasmid, led to the conclusion that the loss of plasmid was associated with the loss of virulence against target insects.

Keywords: agrobacterium tumefaciens, toxicity assessment, biopesticidal attribute, entomopathogenic agent

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Authors: I. Apostol, M. Mosoarca

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Romania is a seismic country, with two major seismic zones, Vrancea and Banat. One of the most important cities from Banat seismic area is Timisoara, where a lot of valuable historical buildings were built before any design codes, but still they kept their stability during past earthquakes. This article presents the influence of the adjacent buildings during an earthquake and the way that the specific failure mechanism is changed when the building is part of an aggregate. The investigation was made using nonlinear analysis based on Tremuri software, first analyzing the buildings as isolated and second, considering the entire aggregate of buildings. There were noticed significant differences through the two situations regarding the specific failure mechanism activated for each building, showing the fact that in some situations, the presence of the adjacent buildings has positive or negative contribution for the seismic behavior of the analyzed one. The difference between the failure mechanism of the same buildings considered isolated and in aggregate aims to provide explications for the good structural state of the existing historical areas of Timisoara, as part of a larger multidisciplinary study, which will help local authorities to prioritize the consolidation works for the historical buildings in order to assure that the history of the city will be kept alive for the next generations.

Keywords: failure mechanism, analysis, aggregate, masonry, earthquake

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Authors: Abd El-Aziz Khairy Abd El-Aal, Yuji Yagi, Heba Kamal

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In this study, an integrated multi-channel analysis of Surface Waves (MASW) technique is applied to explore the geotechnical parameters of subsurface layers at the Zafarana wind farm. Moreover, a seismic hazard procedure based on the extended deterministic technique is used to estimate the seismic hazard load for the investigated area. The study area includes many active fault systems along the Gulf of Suez that cause many moderate and large earthquakes. Overall, the seismic activity of the area has recently become better understood following the use of new waveform inversion methods and software to develop accurate focal mechanism solutions for recent recorded earthquakes around the studied area. These earthquakes resulted in major stress-drops in the Eastern desert and the Gulf of Suez area. These findings have helped to reshape the understanding of the seismotectonic environment of the Gulf of Suez area, which is a perplexing tectonic domain. Based on the collected new information and data, this study uses an extended deterministic approach to re-examine the seismic hazard for the Gulf of Suez region, particularly the wind turbine towers at Zafarana Wind Farm and its vicinity. Alternate seismic source and magnitude-frequency relationships were combined with various indigenous attenuation relationships, adapted within a logic tree formulation, to quantify and project the regional exposure on a set of hazard maps. We select two desired exceedance probabilities (10 and 20%) that any of the applied scenarios may exceed the largest median ground acceleration. The ground motion was calculated at 50th, 84th percentile levels.

Keywords: MASW, seismic hazard, wind turbine towers, Zafarana wind farm

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Authors: P. S. Thein, S. Pramumijoyo, K. S. Brotopuspito, J. Kiyono, W. Wilopo, A. Furukawa, A. Setianto

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In this study, we estimated the seismic ground motion parameters based on microtremor measurements at Palu City. Several earthquakes have struck along the Palu-Koro Fault during recent years. The USGS epicenter, magnitude Mw 6.3 event that occurred on January 23, 2005 caused several casualties. We conducted a microtremor survey to estimate the strong ground motion distribution during the earthquake. From this survey we produced a map of the peak ground acceleration, velocity, seismic vulnerability index and ground shear strain maps in Palu City. We performed single observations of microtremor at 151 sites in Palu City. We also conducted 8-site microtremors array investigation to gain a representative determination of the soil condition of subsurface structures in Palu City. From the array observations, Palu City corresponds to relatively soil condition with Vs ≤ 300 m/s, the predominant periods due to horizontal vertical ratios (HVSRs) are in the range of 0.4 to 1.8 s and the frequency are in the range of 0.7 to 3.3 Hz. Strong ground motions of the Palu area were predicted based on the empirical stochastic green’s function method. Peak ground acceleration and velocity becomes more than 400 gal and 30 kine in some areas, which causes severe damage for buildings in high probability. Microtremor survey results showed that in hilly areas had low seismic vulnerability index and ground shear strain, whereas in coastal alluvium was composed of material having a high seismic vulnerability and ground shear strain indication.

Keywords: Palu-Koro fault, microtremor, peak ground acceleration, peak ground velocity, seismic vulnerability index

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Authors: Wilmer Osvaldo Martinez, Manuel Dario Hernandez, Juan Manuel Julio

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We propose to assess the performance of k forecast procedures by exploring the distributions of forecast errors and error losses. We argue that non systematic forecast errors minimize when their distributions are symmetric and unimodal, and that forecast accuracy should be assessed through stochastic loss order rather than expected loss order, which is the way it is customarily performed in previous work. Moreover, since forecast performance evaluation can be understood as a one way analysis of variance, we propose to explore loss distributions under two circumstances; when a strict (but unknown) joint stochastic order exists among the losses of all forecast alternatives, and when such order happens among subsets of alternative procedures. In spite of the fact that loss stochastic order is stronger than loss moment order, our proposals are at least as powerful as competing tests, and are robust to the correlation, autocorrelation and heteroskedasticity settings they consider. In addition, since our proposals do not require samples of the same size, their scope is also wider, and provided that they test the whole loss distribution instead of just loss moments, they can also be used to study forecast distributions as well. We illustrate the usefulness of our proposals by evaluating a set of real world forecasts.

Keywords: forecast evaluation, stochastic order, multiple comparison, non parametric test

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Authors: Radhwane Boudjelthia

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The most recent earthquakes that occurred in the world and particularly in Algeria, have killed thousands of people and severe damage. The example that is etched in our memory is the last earthquake in the regions of Boumerdes and Algiers (Boumerdes earthquake of May 21, 2003). For all the actors involved in the building process, the earthquake is the litmus test for construction. The goal we set ourselves is to contribute to the implementation of a thoughtful approach to the seismic protection of structures. For many engineers, the most conventional approach protection works (buildings and bridges) the effects of earthquakes is to increase rigidity. This approach is not always effective, especially when there is a context that favors the phenomenon of resonance and amplification of seismic forces. Therefore, the field of earthquake engineering has made significant inroads among others catalyzed by the development of computational techniques in computer form and the use of powerful test facilities. This has led to the emergence of several innovative technologies, such as the introduction of special devices insulation between infrastructure and superstructure. This approach, commonly known as "seismic isolation" to absorb the significant efforts without the structure is damaged and thus ensuring the protection of lives and property. In addition, the restraints to the construction by the ground shaking are located mainly at the supports. With these moves, the natural period of construction is increasing, and seismic loads are reduced. Thus, there is an attenuation of the seismic movement. Likewise, the insulation of the base mechanism may be used in combination with earthquake dampers in order to control the deformation of the insulation system and the absolute displacement of the superstructure located above the isolation interface. On the other hand, only can use these earthquake dampers to reduce the oscillation amplitudes and thus reduce seismic loads. The use of damping devices represents an effective solution for the rehabilitation of existing structures. Given all these acceleration reducing means considered passive, much research has been conducted for several years to develop an active control system of the response of buildings to earthquakes.

Keywords: earthquake, building, seismic forces, displacement, resonance, response

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Authors: Atul K. Desai, Hemal J. Shah

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The tall windmill towers are designed as monopole tower or lattice tower. In the present research, a 125-meter high hybrid tower which is a combination of lattice and monopole type is proposed. The response of hybrid tower is compared with conventional monopole tower. The towers were analyzed in finite element method software considering nonlinear seismic time history load. The synthetic seismic time history for different soil is derived using the SeismoARTIF software. From the present research, it is concluded that, in the hybrid tower, we are not getting resonance condition. The base shear is less in hybrid tower compared to monopole tower for different soil conditions.

Keywords: dynamic analysis, hybrid wind mill tower, resonance condition, synthetic time history

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Authors: Vishal A. S. Salelkar, Sumitra S. Kandolkar

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Golden ratio (ф) or Golden mean or Golden section, as it is often referred to, is a proportion or a mean, which is often used by architects while conceiving the aesthetics of a structure. Golden Ratio (ф) is an irrational number that can be roughly rounded to 1.618 and is derived out of quadratic equation x2-x-1=0. The use of Golden Ratio (ф) can be observed throughout history, as far as ancient Egyptians, which later peaked during the Greek golden age. The use of this design technique is very much prevalent. At present, architects around the world prefer this as one of the primary techniques to decide aesthetics. In this study, an analysis has been performed to investigate whether the use of the golden ratio while planning a structure has any effects on the seismic behavior of the structure. The structure is modeled and analyzed on ETABS (by Computers and Structures, Inc.) for Seismic requirements equivalent to Zone III (Region: Goa-India) as per Indian Standard Code IS-1893. The results were compared to that of an identical structure modeled along the lines of normal design philosophy, not using the Golden Ratio tools. The results were then compared for Story Shear, Story Drift, and Story Displacement Readings. Improvement in performance, although slight, but was observed. Similar improvements were also observed in subsequent iterations, performed using time-acceleration data of previous major earthquakes matched to Zone III as per IS-1893.

Keywords: ETABS, golden ratio, seismic design, structural behavior

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Authors: Sibongiseni Thabethe, Ian Korir

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The effective management of spent fuel pool (SFP) safety has been raised as one of the emerging issues to further enhance nuclear installation safety after the Fukushima accident on March 11, 2011. Before then, SFP safety-related issues have been mainly focused on (a) controlling the configuration of the fuel assemblies in the pool with no loss of pool coolants and (b) ensuring adequate pool storage space to prevent fuel criticality owing to chain reactions of the fission products and the ability for neutron absorption to keep the fuel cool. A probabilistic safety (PSA) assessment was performed using the systems analysis program for hands-on integrated reliability evaluations (SAPHIRE) computer code. Event and fault tree analysis was done to develop a PSA model for the Koeberg SFP. We present preliminary PSA results of events that lead to boiling and cause fuel uncovering, resulting in possible fuel damage in the Koeberg SFP.

Keywords: computer code, fuel assemblies, probabilistic risk assessment, spent fuel pool

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Authors: Abd Al-Salam Al-Masgari, Haylay Tsegab, Ismailalwali Babikir, Monera A. Shoieb

Abstract:

We present a study of Malaysia's Central Luconia region, which is an essential deposit of Miocene carbonate reservoirs. This study aims to identify and map areas of selected carbonate platforms, develop high-resolution statistical karst models, and generate comprehensive karst geobody models for selected carbonate fields. This study uses seismic characterization and advanced geophysical surveys to identify karst signatures in Miocene carbonate reservoirs. The results highlight the use of variance, RMS, RGB colour blending, and 3D visualization Prop seismic sequence stratigraphy seismic attributes to visualize the karstified areas across the F23 field of Central Luconia. The offshore karst model serves as a powerful visualization tool to reveal the karstization of carbonate sediments of interest. The results of this study contribute to a better understanding of the karst distribution of Miocene carbonate reservoirs in Central Luconia, which are essential for hydrocarbon exploration and production. This is because these features significantly impact the reservoir geometry, flow path and characteristics.

Keywords: karst, central Luconia, seismic attributes, Miocene carbonate build-ups

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Authors: Collins Chiemeke, Stephen Ibe, Godwin Onyedim

Abstract:

This research work on high-resolution seismic tomography method was carried out with the aim of investigating how near-surface geology influences the initial distribution of infrastructural development in an area like Otuoke and its environs. To achieve this objective, seismic tomography method was employed. The result revealed that the overburden (highly-weathered layer) thickness ranges from 27 m to 50 m within the survey area, with an average value of 37 m. The 3D surface analysis for the overburden thickness distribution within the survey area showed that the thickness of the overburden is more in regions with less infrastructural development, and least in built-up areas. The range of velocity distribution from the surface to within a depth of 5 m is about 660 m/s to 1160 m/s, with an average value of 946 m/s. The 3D surface analysis of the velocity distribution also revealed that the areas with large infrastructural development are characterized with large velocity values compared with the undeveloped regions that has average low-velocity values. Hence, one can conclusively say that the initial settlement of Otuoke and its environs and the subsequent infrastructural development was influenced by the underlying near surface geology (rigid earth), among other factors.

Keywords: geology, seismic, infrastructural, near-surface

Procedia PDF Downloads 263

Authors: Yirui Wang

Abstract:

In the past few decades, patient safety has been the focus of much attention in the global medical and health field. As medical standards continue to improve and develop, the demand for patient safety is also growing. As one of the important dimensions in assessing patient safety, the Patient Perception Patient Safety Assessment Tool provides unique and valuable information from the patient's own perspective and plays an important role in promoting patient safety. This article aims to summarize and analyze the assessment content, assessment methods and applications of currently commonly used patient-perceived patient safety assessment tools at home and abroad, with a view to providing a reference for medical staff to select appropriate patient-perceived patient safety assessment tools.

Keywords: patients, patient safety, perception, assessment tools, review

Procedia PDF Downloads 56