Search results for: risk transfer

Authors: Shashank Patidar, Sumit Kumar, Atul Srivastava, Suneet Singh

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Present work is concerned with the numerical investigation of thermal response of biological tissues during laser-based photo-thermal therapy for destroying cancerous/abnormal cells with minimal damage to the surrounding normal cells. Light propagation through the biological sample is mathematically modelled by transient radiative transfer equation. In the present work, application of the Lattice Boltzmann Method is extended to analyze transport of short-pulse radiation in a participating medium.In order to determine the two-dimensional temperature distribution inside the tissue medium, the RTE has been coupled with Penne’s bio-heat transfer equation based on Fourier’s law by several researchers in last few years.

Keywords: lattice Boltzmann method, transient radiation transfer equation, dual phase lag model

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Authors: Narissara Nuthammachot, Dimitris Stratoulias

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Fire is one of the main causes of environmental and ecosystem change. Therefore, it is a challenging task for fire risk assessment fire potential mapping. The study area is Hua Sai district, Nakorn Sri Thammarat province, which covers in a part of peat swamp forest areas. 55 fire points in peat swamp areas were reported from 2012 to 2016. Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) and Geographic Information System (GIS) methods were selected for this study. The risk fire area map was arranged on these factors; elevation, slope, aspect, precipitation, distance from the river, distance from town, and land use. The results showed that the predicted fire risk areas are found to be in appreciable reliability with past fire events. The fire risk map can be used for the planning and management of fire areas in the future.

Keywords: analytic hierarchy process, fire risk assessment, geographic information system, peat swamp forest

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Authors: Yasser Mahmoudi, Nader Karimi

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The present work investigates numerically the effect of thermal radiation from the solid phase on the rate of heat transfer inside a porous medium. Forced convection heat transfer process within a pipe filled with a porous media is considered. The Darcy-Brinkman-Forchheimer model is utilized to represent the fluid transport within the porous medium. A local thermal non-equilibrium (LTNE), two-equation model is used to represent the energy transport for the solid and fluid phases. The radiative heat transfer equation is solved by discrete ordinate method (DOM) to compute the radiative heat flux in the porous medium. Two primary approaches (models A and B) are used to represent the boundary conditions for constant wall heat flux. The effects of radiative heat transfer on the Nusselt numbers of the two phases are examined by comparing the results obtained by the application of models A and B. The fluid Nusselt numbers calculated by the application of models A and B show that the Nusselt number obtained by model A for the radiative case is higher than those predicted for the non-radiative case. However, for model B the fluid Nusselt numbers obtained for the radiative and non-radiative cases are similar.

Keywords: porous media, local thermal non-equilibrium, forced convection heat transfer, thermal radiation, Discrete Ordinate Method (DOM)

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Authors: Muhammad Shahrukh Saeed, Syed Ahmad Nameer, Shafiq Ur Rehman, Aisha Jillani

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Heat exchangers play a critical role in industrial applications of thermal systems. Its physical size and performance are vital parameters; therefore enhancement of heat transfer through different techniques remained a major research area for both academia and industry. This research reports the main purpose of heat exchanger with better kit design which plays a vital role during the process of heat transfer. Plate type heat exchanger mainly requires a design in which the plates can be easily be installed and removed without having any problem with the plates. For the flow of the fluid within the heat exchanger, it requires a flow should be fully developed. As natural laws allows the driving energy of the system to flow until equilibrium is achieved. As with a plate type heat exchanger heat the heat penetrates the surface which separates the hot medium with the cold one very easily. As some of the precautions should be considered while taking the heat exchanger accountable like heat should transfer from hot medium to cold, there should always be difference in temperature present and heat loss from hot body should be equal to the heat gained by the cold body regardless of the losses present to the surroundings. Aluminum plates of same grade are used in all experiments to ensure similarity. Size of all plates was 254 mm X 100 mm and thickness was taken as 5 mm.

Keywords: heat transfer coefficient, aluminium, entry length, design

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Authors: M. Ndaw, G. Mendy, S. Ouya

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Information system risk management helps to reduce or eliminate risk by implementing appropriate controls. In this paper, we propose a quantification model of controls impact on information system risks by automatizing the residual criticality estimation step of FMECA which is based on a inductive reasoning. For this, we defined three equations based on type and maturity of controls. For testing, the values obtained with the model were compared to estimated values given by interlocutors during different working sessions and the result is satisfactory. This model allows an optimal assessment of controls maturity and facilitates risk analysis of information system.

Keywords: information system, risk, control, FMECA method

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Authors: David Nantes, George Gilbert

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There are a lot of risks that might crop up as a tunneling project develops, and it's crucial to be aware of them. Due to the unexpected nature of tunneling projects and the interconnectedness of risk occurrences, the risk assessment approach presents a significant challenge. The purpose of this study is to provide a hybrid FDEMATEL-ANP model to help prioritize risks during tunnel construction projects. The ambiguity in expert judgments and the relative severity of interdependencies across risk occurrences are both taken into consideration by this model, thanks to the Fuzzy Decision-Making Trial and Evaluation Laboratory (FDEMATEL). The Analytic Network Process (ANP) method is used to rank priorities and assess project risks. The authors provide a case study of a subway tunneling construction project to back up the validity of their methodology. The results showed that the proposed method successfully isolated key risk factors and elucidated their interplay in the case study. The proposed method has the potential to become a helpful resource for evaluating dangers associated with tunnel construction projects.

Keywords: risk, prioritization, FDEMATEL, ANP, tunneling construction projects

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Authors: Hamed Sanei, Mohammad Bagher Ayani

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Optimizations of Plate Heat Exchangers (PHS) have received great attention in the past decade. In this study, heat transfer and pressure drop coefficients are compared for rectangular and circular PHS employing numerical simulations. Plates are designed to have equivalent areas. Simulations were implemented to investigate the efficiency of PHSs considering heat transfer, friction factor and pressure drop. Amount of heat transfer and pressure drop was obtained for different range of Reynolds numbers. These two parameters were compared with aim of F "weighting factor correlation". In this comparison, the minimum amount of F indicates higher efficiency. Results reveal that the F value for rectangular shape is less than circular plate, and hence using rectangular shape of PHS is more efficient than circular one. It was observed that, the amount of friction factor is correlated to the Reynolds numbers, such that friction factor decreased in both rectangular and circular plates with an increase in Reynolds number. Furthermore, such simulations revealed that the amount of heat transfer in rectangular plate is more than circular plate for different range of Reynolds numbers. The difference is more distinct for higher Reynolds number. However, amount of pressure drop in circular plate is less than rectangular plate for the same range of Reynolds numbers which is considered as a negative point for rectangular plate efficiency. It can be concluded that, while rectangular PHSs occupy more space than circular plate, the efficiency of rectangular plate is higher.

Keywords: Chevron corrugated plate heat exchanger, heat transfer, friction factor, Reynolds numbers

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Authors: Hyung-Jin Kim, Dae-Wan Kim, Moo-Yeon Lee

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The objective of this study is to experimentally investigate the heat transfer characteristics of 200 W class woofer speaker units with the input voice signals. The temperature and heat transfer characteristics of the 200 W class woofer speaker unit were experimentally tested with the several input voice signals such as 1500 Hz, 2500 Hz, and 5000 Hz respectively. From the experiments, it can be observed that the temperature of the woofer speaker unit including the voice-coil part increases with a decrease in input voice signals. Also, the temperature difference in measured points of the voice coil is increased with decrease of the input voice signals. In addition, the heat transfer characteristics of the woofer speaker in case of the input voice signal of 1500 Hz is 40% higher than that of the woofer speaker in case of the input voice signal of 5000 Hz at the measuring time of 200 seconds. It can be concluded from the experiments that initially the temperature of the voice signal increases rapidly with time, after a certain period of time it increases exponentially. Also during this time dependent temperature change, it can be observed that high voice signal is stable than low voice signal.

Keywords: heat transfer, temperature, voice coil, woofer speaker

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Authors: Jie Liu, Wei Wei, Chun-Ping Chang

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Using a sample of 110 countries over the period 1984-2013, this paper examines the impacts of country risks on choosing a specific exchange rate regime (first by utilizing the Levy-Yeyati and Sturzenegger de facto classification and then robusting it by the IMF de jure measurement) relative to other regimes via the panel multinomial logit approach. Empirical findings are as follows. First, in the full samples case we provide evidence that government is more likely to implement a flexible regime, but less likely to adopt a fixed regime, under a low level of composite and financial risk. Second, we find that Eurozone countries are more likely to choose a fixed exchange rate regime with a decrease in the level of country risk and favor a flexible regime in response to a shock from an increase of risk, which is opposite to non-Eurozone countries. Third, we note that high-risk countries are more likely to choose a fixed regime with a low level of composite and political risk in the government, but do not adjust the exchange rate regime as a shock absorber when facing economic and financial risks. It is interesting to see that those countries with relatively low risk display almost opposite results versus high-risk economies. Overall, we believe that it is critically important to account for political economy variables in a government’s exchange rate policy decisions, especially for country risks. All results are robust to the panel ordered probit model.

Keywords: country risk, political economy, exchange rate regimes, shock absorber

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Authors: Jadwiga Królikowska, Andrzej Królikowski, Jarosław Bajer

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The work delineates the threats of maladjustment of the capacity of rain canals, designed and built in the early 20th century, in connection to heavy rainfall, especially in summer. This is the cause of the so called 'urban floods.' It directly relates to fierce raise of paving in the cities. Resolving this problem requires a change in philosophy of draining the rainfall by wider use of retention, infiltration and usage of rainwater. In systemic approach to managing the safety of urban drainage systems the risk, which is directly connected to safety failures, has been accepted as a measure. The risk level defines the probability of occurrence of losses greater than the ones forecast for a given time frame. The procedure of risk modelling, enabling its numeric analysis by using appropriate weights, is a significant issue in this paper.

Keywords: risk management, drainage system, urban areas, urban floods

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Authors: Nan Yang, Hye Pae

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English as a second language (ESL) learners are often observed to have transferred traits of their first languages (L1) and habits of using their L1s to their use of English (second language, L2), and this phenomenon is coined as language transfer. In addition to the transfer of linguistic features (e.g., grammar, vocabulary, etc.), which are relatively easy to observe and quantify, many cross-cultural theorists emphasized on a much subtle and fundamental transfer existing on a higher conceptual level that is referred to as conceptual transfer. Although a growing body of literature in linguistics has demonstrated evidence of L1 transfer in various discourse genres, very limited studies address the underlying conceptual transfer that is happening along with the language transfer, especially with the extended form of spontaneous discourses such as personal narrative. To address this issue, this study situates itself in the context of Chinese ESL learners’ written narratives, examines evidence of L1 conceptual transfer in comparison with native English speakers’ narratives, and provides discussion from the perspective of the conceptual transfer. It is hypothesized that Chinese ESL learners’ English narrative strategies are heavily influenced by the strategies that they use in Chinese as a result of the conceptual transfer. Understanding language transfer cognitively is of great significance in the realm of SLA, as it helps address challenges that ESL learners around the world are facing; allow native English speakers to develop a better understanding about how and why learners’ English is different; and also shed light in ESL pedagogy by providing linguistic and cultural expectations in native English-speaking countries. To achieve the goals, 40 college students were recruited (20 Chinese ESL learners and 20 native English speakers) in the United States, and their written narratives on the prompt 'The most frightening experience' were collected for quantitative discourse analysis. 40 written narratives (20 in Chinese and 20 in English) were collected from Chinese ESL learners, and 20 written narratives were collected from native English speakers. All written narratives were coded according to the coding scheme developed by the authors prior to data collection. Statistical descriptive analyses were conducted, and the preliminary results revealed that native English speakers included more narrative elements such as events and explicit evaluation comparing to Chinese ESL students’ both English and Chinese writings; the English group also utilized more evaluation device (i.e., physical state expressions, indirectly reported speeches, delineation) than Chinese ESL students’ both English and Chinese writings. It was also observed that Chinese ESL students included more orientation elements (i.e., the introduction of time/place, the introduction of character) in their Chinese and English writings than the native English-speaking participants. The findings suggest that a similar narrative strategy was observed in Chinese ESL learners’ Chinese narratives and English narratives, which is considered as the evidence of conceptual transfer from Chinese (L1) to English (L2). The results also indicate that distinct narrative strategies were used by Chinese ESL learners and native English speakers as a result of cross-cultural differences.

Keywords: Chinese ESL learners, language transfer, thinking-for-speaking, written narratives

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Authors: Kitty Kioskli, Nineta Polemi

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Evaluating the levels of cyber-security risks within an enterprise is most important in protecting its information system, services and all its digital assets against security incidents (e.g. accidents, malicious acts, massive cyber-attacks). The existing risk assessment methodologies (e.g. eBIOS, OCTAVE, CRAMM, NIST-800) adopt a technical approach considering as attack factors only the capability, intention and target of the attacker, and not paying attention to the attacker’s psychological profile and personality traits. In this paper, a socio-technical approach is proposed in cyber risk assessment, in order to achieve more realistic risk estimates by considering the personality traits of the attackers. In particular, based upon principles from investigative psychology and behavioural science, a multi-dimensional, extended, quantifiable model for an attacker’s profile is developed, which becomes an additional factor in the cyber risk level calculation.

Keywords: attacker, behavioural models, cyber risk assessment, cybersecurity, human factors, investigative psychology, ISO27001, ISO27005

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Authors: Sayantika Biswas, Dipanshu Sur, Amitoj Athwal, Ratnabali Chakravorty

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Title: Impact of serum estrogen and progesterone levels in the outcome pregnancy rate in frozen embryo transfer cycles. A prospective cohort study Objective: The aim of the current study was to evaluate the effect of serum estradiol (E2) and progesterone (P4) levels at different time points on pregnancy outcomes in frozen embryo transfer (FET) cycles. Materials & Method: A prospective cohort study was performed in patients undergoing frozen embryo transfer. Patients under age 37 years of age with at least one good blastocyst or three good day 3 embryos were included in the study. For endometrial preparation, 14 days of oral estradiol use (2X2 mg for 5 days. 3X2 mg for 4 days, and 4X2 mg for 5 days) was followed by vaginal progesterone twice a day and 50 mg intramuscular progesterone twice a day. Embryo transfer was scheduled 72-76 hrs or 116-120hrs after the initiation of progesterone. Serum E2 and P4 levels were examined at 4 times a) at the start of the menstrual cycle prior to the hormone supplementation. b) on the day of P4 start. c) on the day of ET. d) on the third day after ET. Result: A total 41 women were included in this study (mean age 31.8; SD 2.8). Clinical pregnancy rate was 65.55%. Serum E2 levels on at the start of the menstrual cycle prior to the hormone supplementation and on the day of P4 start were high in patients who achieved pregnancy compared to who did not (P=0.005 and P=0.019 respectively). P4 levels on on the day of ET were also high in patients with clinical pregnancy. On the day of P4 start, a serum E2 threshold of 186.4 pg/ml had a sensitivity of 82%, and P4 had a sensitivity of 71% for the prediction of clinical pregnancy at the threshold value 16.00 ng/ml. Conclusion: In women undergoing FET with hormone replacement, serum E2 level >186.4 pg/ml on the day of the start of progesterone and serum P4 levels >16.00 ng/ml on embryo transfer day are associated with clinical pregnancy.

Keywords: serum estradiol, serum progesterone, clinical pregnancy, frozen embryo transfer

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Authors: Khalak Bin Khair, Saqib Jahir, Mohammed Ibrahim, Fahad Bin, Debajyoti Karmaker

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Object detection is a computer technology that deals with searching through digital images and videos for occurrences of semantic elements of a particular class. It is associated with image processing and computer vision. On top of object detection, we detect camouflage objects within an image using Deep Learning techniques. Deep learning may be a subset of machine learning that's essentially a three-layer neural network Over 6500 images that possess camouflage properties are gathered from various internet sources and divided into 4 categories to compare the result. Those images are labeled and then trained and tested using vgg16 architecture on the jupyter notebook using the TensorFlow platform. The architecture is further customized using Transfer Learning. Methods for transferring information from one or more of these source tasks to increase learning in a related target task are created through transfer learning. The purpose of this transfer of learning methodologies is to aid in the evolution of machine learning to the point where it is as efficient as human learning.

Keywords: deep learning, transfer learning, TensorFlow, camouflage, object detection, architecture, accuracy, model, VGG16

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Authors: Jadwiga Królikowska, Andrzej Królikowski, Jarosław Bajer

Abstract:

The work delineates the threats of maladjustment of the capacity of rain canals, designed and built in the early 20th century, in connection to heavy rainfall, especially in summer. This is the cause of the so called 'urban floods.' It directly relates to fierce raise of paving in the cities. Resolving this problem requires a change in philosophy of draining the rainfall by wider use of retention, infiltration and usage of rainwater. In systemic approach to managing the safety of urban drainage systems the risk, which is directly connected to safety failures, has been accepted as a measure. The risk level defines the probability of occurrence of losses grater than the ones forecast for a given time frame. The procedure of risk modelling, enabling its numeric analysis by using appropriate weights, is a significant issue in this paper.

Keywords: drainage system, urban areas, risk measurement, systemic approach

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Authors: Abdulaziz Almustafa

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Considering the critical role permanence has on predictions related to the contextual interference effect on laboratory and field research, this study sought to determine whether the paradigm of the effect depends on the complexity of the skill during the acquisition and transfer phases. The purpose of the present study was to investigate the effects of contextual interference CI by extending previous laboratory and field research with adult athletes through the acquisition and transfer phases. Male (n=60) athletes age 18-22 years-old, were chosen randomly from Eastern Province Clubs. They were assigned to complete blocked, random, or serial practices. Analysis of variance with repeated measures MANOVA indicated that, the results did not support the notion of CI. There were no significant differences in acquisition phase between blocked, serial and random practice groups. During the transfer phase, there were no major differences between the practice groups. Apparently, due to the task complexity, participants were probably confused and not able to use the advantages of contextual interference. This is another contradictory result to contextual interference effects in acquisition and transfer phases in sport settings. One major factor that can influence the effect of contextual interference is task characteristics as the nature of level of difficulty in sport-related skill.

Keywords: contextual interference, acquisition, transfer, task difficulty

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Authors: Ajoy Kumar Das, Prasenjit Dey

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Heat transfer due to forced convection of copper water based nanofluid has been predicted by Artificial Neural network (ANN). The present nanofluid is formed by mixing copper nano particles in water and the volume fractions are considered here are 0% to 15% and the Reynolds number are kept constant at 100. The back propagation algorithm is used to train the network. The present ANN is trained by the input and output data which has been obtained from the numerical simulation, performed in finite volume based Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) commercial software Ansys Fluent. The numerical simulation based results are compared with the back propagation based ANN results. It is found that the forced convection heat transfer of water based nanofluid can be predicted correctly by ANN. It is also observed that the back propagation ANN can predict the heat transfer characteristics of nanofluid very quickly compared to standard CFD method.

Keywords: forced convection, square cylinder, nanofluid, neural network

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Authors: N. W. Paul, M. Banerjee

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Discussing the nexus between global health policy and local practices, this article addresses the recent Ebola outbreak as a role model for narrative co-constructions of epidemic risk. We will demonstrate in how far a theory-driven and methodologically rooted analysis of narrativity can help to improve mechanisms of prevention and intervention whenever epidemic risk needs to be addressed locally in order to contribute to global health. Analyzing the narrative transformation of Ebola, we will also address issues of transcultural problem-solving and of normative questions at stake. In this regard, we seek to contribute to a better understanding of a key question of global health and justice as well as to the underlying ethical questions. By highlighting and analyzing the functions of narratives, this paper provides a translational approach to refine our practices by which we address epidemic risk, be it on the national, the transnational or the global scale.

Keywords: ebola, epidemic risk, medical ethics, medical humanities

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Authors: Te Wen Tu, Sen Yung Lee

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An alternative approach is proposed to develop the analytic solution for one dimensional heat conduction with one mixed type boundary condition and general time-dependent heat transfer coefficient. In this study, the physic meaning of the solution procedure is revealed. It is shown that the shifting function takes the physic meaning of the reciprocal of Biot function in the initial time. Numerical results show the accuracy of this study. Comparing with those given in the existing literature, the difference is less than 0.3%.

Keywords: analytic solution, heat transfer coefficient, shifting function method, time-dependent boundary condition

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Authors: Belkacem Ould Said, Nourddine Retiel, Abdelilah Benazza, Mohamed Aichouni

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In this paper, a numerical study of two-dimensional steady flow has been made of natural convection in a differentially heated vertical conical partially annular space. The heat transfer is assumed to take place by natural convection. The inner and outer surfaces of annulus are maintained at uniform wall temperature. The annulus is filled with air. The CFD FLUENT12.0 code is used to solve the governing equations of mass, momentum and energy using constant properties and the Boussinesq approximation for density variation. The streamlines and the isotherms of the fluid are presented for different annuli with different boundary conditions and Rayleigh numbers. Emphasis is placed on the influences of the height of the inner vertical cone on the flow and the temperature fields. In addition, the effects on the heat transfer are discussed for various values of physical parameters of the fluid and geometric parameters of the annulus. The heat transfer on the hot walls of the annulus is also calculated in order to make comparisons between the cylinder annulus for boundary conditions and several Rayleigh numbers. A good agreement of Nusselt number has been found between the present predictions and reference from the literature data.

Keywords: natural convection, heat transfer, numerical simulation, conical partially, annular space

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Authors: Saleh Alzahrani, Halim Boussabaine

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Many of Public Private Partnership (PPP) are developed based on a public project is to be awarded to a private party within a one contractual framework. PPP project risks typically include the development and construction of a new asset as well as its operation. Certainly the most severe consequences of risks through the construction period are price and time overruns. These events are among the most generally used situation in value for money analysis risks. The sources of risk change during the time in PPP project. In traditional procurement, the public sector usually has to cover all prices suffering from these risks. At least there is plenty to suggest that price suffering is a norm in some of the projects that are delivered under traditional procurement. This paper will find the impact of exogenous risk factors into actual construction price into PPP projects. The paper will present a brief literature review on PPP risk pricing strategies and then using system dynamics (SD) to analyses of the risks associated with the estimated project price. Based on the finding from these analyses a risk pricing association model is presented and discussed. The paper concludes with thoughts for future research.

Keywords: public private partnership (PPP), risk, risk pricing, system dynamics (SD)

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Authors: Magid Maatallah

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The problem is, investment management in modern conditions boils down to risk management which is very underdeveloped in Islamic financial theory and practice. Add to this the fact that, in Islamic perception, this is one of the areas of conventional finance in need of drastic reforms. This need was recently underlined by the story of Long Term Capital Management (LTCM ), ( told by Roger Lowenstein in his book, When Genius Failed, Random House, 2000 ). So we face a double challenge, to develop Islamic techniques of risk management and to see that these new techniques are free from the ills with which conventional methods are suffering. This is different from the challenge faced in the middle of twentieth century, to develop a method of financial intermediation free of interest.Risk was always there, especially in business. But industrialization brought risks unknown in trade and agriculture. Industrial production often involves long periods of time .The longer the period of production the more the uncertainty. The scope of the market has expanded to cover the whole world, introducing new kinds of risk. More than a thousand years ago, when Islamic laws were being written, the nature and scope of risk and uncertainty was different. However, something can still be learnt which, in combination with the modern experience, should enable us to realize the Shariah objectives of justice, fairness and efficiency.

Keywords: financial markets, Islamic framework, risk management, investment

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Authors: Tomasz Borowski, Dawid Sołoducha, Rafał Rakoczy, Marian Kordas

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The growing interest in magnetic fields applications is visible due to the increased number of articles on this topic published in the last few years. In this study, the influence of various magnetic fields (MF) on the mass transfer process was examined. To carry out the prototype set-up equipped with an MF generator that is able to generate a pulsed magnetic field (PMF), oscillating magnetic field (OMF), rotating magnetic field (RMF) and static magnetic field (SMF) was used. To demonstrate the effect of MF’s on mass transfer, the calcium carbonate precipitation process was selected. To the vessel with attached conductometric probes and placed inside the generator, specific doses of calcium chloride and sodium carbonate were added. Electrical conductivity changes of the mixture inside the vessel were measured over time until equilibrium was established. Measurements were conducted for various MF strengths and concentrations of added chemical compounds. Obtained results were analyzed, which allowed to creation of mathematical correlation models showing the influence of MF’s on the studied process.

Keywords: mass transfer, oscillating magnetic field, rotating magnetic field, static magnetic field

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Authors: Hotlan Siagian, Han Tae Hee

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This study aims to examine the effect of supplier trust and top management involvement on the supply chain risk management through buyer-supplier relationship. The population of the research is 44 Korean companies domiciled in East and Central Java of Indonesia. The respondent consists of a top management level from each company. Data collection used a questionnaire designed with five-item Likert scale. Collected data were analyzed using structural equation modeling (SEM) technique with SmartPLS software version 3.0 to examine the hypotheses. The result revealed that supplier trust has an effect on supply chain risk management, top management involvement affects supply chain risk management, supplier trust influences buyer-supplier relationship, top management involvement affects the buyer-supplier relationship, and buyer-supplier relationship affects supply chain risk management. The last finding is that buyer-supplier relationship empirically mediates the effect of supplier trust and top management involvement.

Keywords: buyer supplier relationship, supplier trust, supply chain risk management, top management involvement

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Authors: Thomas Y. S. Lee

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An insurer offers cyber insurance coverage to several firms with risk-averse decision-makers. The cyber insurance premium offered depends on the cyber security implemented at the firm. Each firm faces attacks by multiple types of hackers and decides on the level of investment for cyber security countermeasures. We address the software monoculture issue by considering that there is common, popular software used by all firms, and it is a source of correlated risk. Two types of cyber security interdependence breaching processes due to the software monoculture risk were analyzed. We derive the probability distribution for the number of breaches and develop the cyber insurance pricing model. We also introduce the concept of cyber security defense level. Furthermore, we proposed to determine the optimal cyber insurance price given a targeted defense level. Finally, we demonstrate the use of our model through several numerical examples.

Keywords: cyber insurance, hacker, breaching probability, cyber security, correlated risks, software monoculture risk, defense level, integrated risk management.

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Authors: Haolin Li, Eric Bair, Jane Monaco, Quefeng Li

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The temporomandibular disorder (TMD) is a series of musculoskeletal disorders ranging from jaw pain to chronic debilitating pain, and the risk factors for the onset and maintenance of TMD are still unclear. Prior researches have shown that the potential risk factors for chronic TMD are related to psychosocial factors, autonomic functions, and pain sensitivity. Using data from the Orofacial Pain: Prospective Evaluation and Risk Assessment (OPPERA) study’s baseline case-control study, we examine whether the risk factors identified by prior researches are still statistically significant after taking all of the risk measures into account in one single model, and we also compare the relative influences of the risk factors in three different perspectives (psychosocial factors, autonomic functions, and pain sensitivity) on the chronic TMD. The statistical analysis is conducted by using ridge logistic regression and bootstrapping, in which the performance of the algorithms has been assessed using extensive simulation studies. The results support most of the findings of prior researches that there are many psychosocial and pain sensitivity measures that have significant associations with chronic TMD. However, it is surprising that most of the risk factors of autonomic functions have not presented significant associations with chronic TMD, as described by a prior research.

Keywords: autonomic function, OPPERA study, pain sensitivity, psychosocial measures, temporomandibular disorder

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Authors: Feyza Eda Akyurek, Bayram Sahin, Kadir Gelis, Eyuphan Manay, Murat Ceylan

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Turbulent forced convection heat transfer and pressure drop characteristics of Al₂O₃–water nanofluid flowing through a concentric tube heat exchanger with and without coiled wire turbulators were studied experimentally. The experiments were conducted in the Reynolds number ranging from 4000 to 20000, particle volume concentrations of 0.8 vol.% and 1.6 vol.%. Two turbulators with the pitches of 25 mm and 39 mm were used. The results of nanofluids indicated that average Nusselt number increased much more with increasing Reynolds number compared to that of pure water. Thermal conductivity enhancement by the nanofluids resulted in heat transfer enhancement. Once the pressure drop of the alumina/water nanofluid was analyzed, it was nearly equal to that of pure water at the same Reynolds number range. It was concluded that nanofluids with the volume fractions of 0.8 and 1.6 did not have a significant effect on pressure drop change. However, the use of wire coils in heat exchanger enhanced heat transfer as well as the pressure drop.

Keywords: turbulators, heat exchanger, nanofluids, heat transfer enhancement

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Authors: Ruchi Agarwal

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In today’s world, companies are operating in dynamic, uncertain and ambiguous business environments. Globally, more companies are failing due to Environmental, Social and Governance (ESG) factors than ever. Corporate governance and risk management are intertwined in nature. For decades, corporate governance and risk management have been influenced by internal and external factors. Three schools of thought have influenced risk governance for decades: Agency theory, Contingency theory, and Institutional theory. Agency theory argues that agents have interests conflicting with principal interests and the information problem. Contingency theory suggests that risk management adoption is influenced by internal and external factors, while Institutional theory suggests that organizations legitimize risk management with regulators, competitors, and professional bodies. The conflicting objectives of theories have created problems for executives in organizations in the adoption of Risk Governance. So far, there are many studies that discussed risk culture and the role of actors in risk governance, but there are rare studies discussing the role of risk culture in the adoption of risk governance from a leadership style perspective. This study explores the adoption of risk governance in two contrasting industries, such as the Insurance and energy business, to understand whether risk governance is influenced by internal/external factors or whether risk culture is influenced by leaders. We draw empirical evidence by comparing the cases of an Indian insurance company and a renewable energy-based firm in India. We interviewed more than 20 senior executives of companies and collected annual reports, risk management policies, and more than 10 PPTs and other reports from 2017 to 2024. We visited the company for follow-up questions several times. The findings of my research revealed that both companies have used risk governance for strategic renewal of the company. Insurance companies use a transactional leadership style based on performance and reward for improving risk, while energy companies use rather symbolic management to make debt restructuring meaningful for stakeholders. Overall, both companies turned from loss-making to profitable ones in a few years. This comparative study highlights the role of different leadership styles in the adoption of risk governance. The study is also distinct as previous research rarely studied risk governance in two contrasting industries in reference to leadership styles.

Keywords: leadership style, corporate governance, risk management, risk culture, strategic renewal

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Authors: Behzad Ahdiharab, Senol Baskaya, Tamer Calisir

Abstract:

Heat exchangers are one of the most widely used systems in factories, refineries etc. In this study, natural convection heat transfer using nano-fluids in between two cylinders is numerically investigated. The inner and outer cylinders are kept at constant temperatures. One of the most important assumptions in the project is that the working fluid is non-Newtonian. In recent years, the use of nano-fluids in industrial applications has increased profoundly. In this study, nano-Newtonian fluids containing metal particles with high heat transfer coefficients have been used. All fluid properties such as homogeneity has been calculated. In the present study, solutions have been obtained under unsteady conditions, base fluid was water, and effects of various parameters on heat transfer have been investigated. These parameters are Rayleigh number (103 < Ra < 106), power-law index (0.6 < n < 1.4), aspect ratio (0 < AR < 0.8), nano-particle composition, horizontal and vertical displacement of the inner cylinder, rotation of the inner cylinder, and volume fraction of nanoparticles. Results such as the internal cylinder average and local Nusselt number variations, contours of temperature, flow lines are presented. The results are also discussed in detail. From the validation study performed it was found that a very good agreement exists between the present results and those from the open literature. It was found out that the heat transfer is always affected by the investigated parameters. However, the degree to which the heat transfer is affected does change in a wide range.

Keywords: heat transfer, circular space, non-Newtonian, nano fluid, computational fluid dynamics.

Procedia PDF Downloads 386

Authors: Jayaletchumi T. Sambantha Moorthy, Suhaimi bin Ibrahim, Mohd Naz’ri Mahrin

Abstract:

Most quality models have defined usability as a significant factor that leads to improving product acceptability, increasing user satisfaction, improving product reliability, and also financially benefiting companies. Usability is also the best factor that acts as a balance for both the technical and human aspects of a software product, which is an important aspect in defining quality during software development process. A usability risk can be defined as a potential usability risk factor that a chosen action or activity may lead to a possible loss or an undesirable outcome. This could impact the usability of a software product thereby contributing to negative user experiences and causing a possible software product failure. Hence, it is important to mitigate and reduce usability risks in the software development process itself. By managing possible involved usability risks in software development process, failure of software product could be reduced. Therefore, this research uses the Delphi method to identify mitigation plans to reduce potential usability risks. The Delphi method is conducted with seven experts from the field of risk management and software development.

Keywords: usability, usability risk, risk management, risk mitigation, delphi study

Procedia PDF Downloads 437