Search results for: ridership dynamics
Commenced in January 2007
Frequency: Monthly
Edition: International
Paper Count: 2706

Search results for: ridership dynamics

2556 Three Dimensional Flexible Dynamics of Continuous Cislunar Payloads Transfer System

Authors: Y. Yang, Dian Ming Xing, Qiu Hua Du

Abstract:

Based on the Motorized Momentum Exchange Tether (MMET), with the principle of momentum exchange, the three dimension flexible dynamics of continuous cislunar payloads transferring system (CCPTS) is built by Lagrange method and its numerical solution is solved by Mathematica software. In the derivation precession of potential energy, this paper uses the Tylor expansion method to simplify the Lagrange equation. Furthermore, the tension coming from the centripetal load is considered in the elastic potential energy. The comparison simulation results between the 3D rigid model and 3D flexible model of CCPTS shows that the tether flexibility has important influence on CCPTS’s orbital parameters (such as radius of CCPTS’s COM and the true anomaly) and the tether’s rotational movement, the relative deviation of radius and the true anomaly between the two dynamic models is about 0.00678% and 0.00259%, the relative deviation of the angle of tether-span and local gravity gradient is about 3.55%. Additionally, the external torque has an apparent influence on the tether’s axial vibration.

Keywords: cislunar transfer, dynamics, momentum exchange, tether

Procedia PDF Downloads 242
2555 Housing Price Dynamics: Comparative Study of 1980-1999 and the New Millenium

Authors: Janne Engblom, Elias Oikarinen

Abstract:

The understanding of housing price dynamics is of importance to a great number of agents: to portfolio investors, banks, real estate brokers and construction companies as well as to policy makers and households. A panel dataset is one that follows a given sample of individuals over time, and thus provides multiple observations on each individual in the sample. Panel data models include a variety of fixed and random effects models which form a wide range of linear models. A special case of panel data models is dynamic in nature. A complication regarding a dynamic panel data model that includes the lagged dependent variable is endogeneity bias of estimates. Several approaches have been developed to account for this problem. In this paper, the panel models were estimated using the Common Correlated Effects estimator (CCE) of dynamic panel data which also accounts for cross-sectional dependence which is caused by common structures of the economy. In presence of cross-sectional dependence standard OLS gives biased estimates. In this study, U.S housing price dynamics were examined empirically using the dynamic CCE estimator with first-difference of housing price as the dependent and first-differences of per capita income, interest rate, housing stock and lagged price together with deviation of housing prices from their long-run equilibrium level as independents. These deviations were also estimated from the data. The aim of the analysis was to provide estimates with comparisons of estimates between 1980-1999 and 2000-2012. Based on data of 50 U.S cities over 1980-2012 differences of short-run housing price dynamics estimates were mostly significant when two time periods were compared. Significance tests of differences were provided by the model containing interaction terms of independents and time dummy variable. Residual analysis showed very low cross-sectional correlation of the model residuals compared with the standard OLS approach. This means a good fit of CCE estimator model. Estimates of the dynamic panel data model were in line with the theory of housing price dynamics. Results also suggest that dynamics of a housing market is evolving over time.

Keywords: dynamic model, panel data, cross-sectional dependence, interaction model

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2554 Accidental Compartment Fire Dynamics: Experiment, Computational Fluid Dynamics Weakness and Expert Interview Analysis

Authors: Timothy Onyenobi

Abstract:

Accidental fires and its dynamic as it relates to building compartmentation and the impact of the compartment morphology, is still an on-going area of study; especially with the use of computational fluid dynamics (CFD) modeling methods. With better knowledge on this subject come better solution recommendations by fire engineers. Interviews were carried out for this study where it was identified that the response perspectives to accidental fire were different with the fire engineer providing qualitative data which is based on “what is expected in real fires” and the fire fighters provided information on “what actually obtains in real fires”. This further led to a study and analysis of two real and comprehensively instrumented fire experiments: the Open Plan Office Project by National Institute of Standard and Technology (NIST) USA (to study time to flashover) and the TF2000 project by the Building Research Establishment (BRE) UK (to test for conformity with Building Regulation requirements). The findings from the analysis of the experiments revealed the relative yet critical weakness of fire prediction using a CFD model (usually used by fire engineers) as well as explained the differences in response perspectives of the fire engineers and firefighters from the interview analysis.

Keywords: CFD, compartment fire, experiment, fire fighters, fire engineers

Procedia PDF Downloads 304
2553 Cointegration Dynamics in Asian Stock Markets: Implications for Long-Term Portfolio Management

Authors: Xinyi Xu

Abstract:

This study conducts a detailed examination of Asian stock markets over the period from 2008 to 2023, with a focus on the dynamics of cointegration and their relevance for long-term investment strategies. Specifically, we assess the co-movement and potential for pairs trading—a strategy where investors take opposing positions on two stocks, indices, or financial instruments that historically move together. For example, we explore the relationship between the Nikkei 225 (N225), Japan’s benchmark stock index, and the Straits Times Index (STI) of Singapore, as well as the relationship between the Korea Composite Stock Price Index (KS11) and the STI. The methodology includes tests for normality, stationarity, cointegration, and the application of Vector Error Correction Modeling (VECM). Our findings reveal significant long-term relationships between these pairs, indicating opportunities for pairs trading strategies. Furthermore, the research underscores the challenges posed by model instability and the influence of major global incidents, which are identified as structural breaks. These findings pave the way for further exploration into the intricacies of financial market dynamics.

Keywords: normality tests, stationarity, cointegration, VECM, pairs trading

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2552 Population Dynamics of Early Oak Defoliators in Correlation with Micro-climatic Temperature Conditions in Kragujevac Area in Serbia

Authors: Miroslava Marković, Renata Gagić, Serdar, Aleksandar Lučić, Ljubinko Rakonjac

Abstract:

Forest dieback that comes in waves since the early 20th century has lately grown into an epidemic, in particular in oak stands. For this reason, research was conducted of the population dynamics of early oak defoliators, which represent a grave danger in oak stands due to their gradogenic attributes. The research was carried out over a 5-year period in oak forests in the area of forest administrations Kragujevac and Gornji Milanovac. The samples used in the research were collected from bottom branches, where Geometridae were found in the largest numbers, as well as from the mid and upper parts of the crowns, where other species were found. Population levels of these pests were presented in laboratory conditions on winter branch samples and in newly foliated stands on site, depending on the basic parameters of the climatic conditions. The greatest deviation of the population level of early oak defoliators was noted in 2018 on all 6 presented localities through the analysis of winter branches and the analysis of their presence in newly foliated stands on site, and it was followed by the highest average air temperature.

Keywords: defoliators, oak, population level, population dynamics

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2551 Multiscale Modelling of Citrus Black Spot Transmission Dynamics along the Pre-Harvest Supply Chain

Authors: Muleya Nqobile, Winston Garira

Abstract:

We presented a compartmental deterministic multi-scale model which encompass internal plant defensive mechanism and pathogen interaction, then we consider nesting the model into the epidemiological model. The objective was to improve our understanding of the transmission dynamics of within host and between host of Guignardia citricapa Kiely. The inflow of infected class was scaled down to individual level while the outflow was scaled up to average population level. Conceptual model and mathematical model were constructed to display a theoretical framework which can be used for predicting or identify disease pattern.

Keywords: epidemiological model, mathematical modelling, multi-scale modelling, immunological model

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2550 Molecular Dynamics Studies of Main Factors Affecting Mass Transport Phenomena on Cathode of Polymer Electrolyte Membrane Fuel Cell

Authors: Jingjing Huang, Nengwei Li, Guanghua Wei, Jiabin You, Chao Wang, Junliang Zhang

Abstract:

In this work, molecular dynamics (MD) simulation is applied to analyze the mass transport process in the cathode of proton exchange membrane fuel cell (PEMFC), of which all types of molecules situated in the cathode is considered. a reasonable and effective MD simulation process is provided, and models were built and compared using both Materials Studio and LAMMPS. The mass transport is one of the key issues in the study of proton exchange membrane fuel cells (PEMFCs). In this report, molecular dynamics (MD) simulation is applied to analyze the influence of Nafion ionomer distribution and Pt nano-particle size on mass transport process in the cathode. It is indicated by the diffusion coefficients calculation that a larger quantity of Nafion, as well as a higher equivalent weight (EW) value, will hinder the transport of oxygen. In addition, medium-sized Pt nano-particles (1.5~2nm) are more advantageous in terms of proton transport compared with other particle sizes (0.94~2.55nm) when the center-to-center distance between two Pt nano-particles is around 5 nm. Then mass transport channels are found to be formed between the hydrophobic backbone and the hydrophilic side chains of Nafion ionomer according to the radial distribution function (RDF) curves. And the morphology of these channels affected by the Pt size is believed to influence the transport of hydronium ions and, consequently the performance of PEMFC.

Keywords: cathode catalytic layer, mass transport, molecular dynamics, proton exchange membrane fuel cell

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2549 Surface Characterization and Femtosecond-Nanosecond Transient Absorption Dynamics of Bioconjugated Gold Nanoparticles: Insight into the Warfarin Drug-Binding Site of Human Serum Albumin

Authors: Osama K. Abou-Zied, Saba A. Sulaiman

Abstract:

We studied the spectroscopy of 25-nm diameter gold nanoparticles (AuNPs), coated with human serum albumin (HSA) as a model drug carrier. The morphology and coating of the AuNPs were examined using transmission electron microscopy and dynamic light scattering. Resonance energy transfer from the sole tryptophan of HSA (Trp214) to the AuNPs was observed in which the fluorescence quenching of Trp214 is dominated by a static mechanism. Using fluorescein (FL) to probe the warfarin drug-binding site in HSA revealed the unchanged nature of the binding cavity on the surface of the AuNPs, indicating the stability of the protein structure on the metal surface. The transient absorption results of the surface plasmonic resonance (SPR) band of the AuNPs show three ultrafast dynamics that are involved in the relaxation process after excitation at 460 nm. The three decay components were assigned to the electron-electron (~ 400 fs), electron-phonon (~ 2.0 ps) and phonon-phonon (200–250 ps) interactions. These dynamics were not changed upon coating the AuNPs with HSA which indicates the chemical and physical stability of the AuNPs upon bioconjugation. Binding of FL in HSA did not have any measurable effect on the bleach recovery dynamics of the SPR band, although both FL and AuNPs were excited at 460 nm. The current study is important for a better understanding of the physical and dynamical properties of protein-coated metal nanoparticles which are expected to help in optimizing their properties for critical applications in nanomedicine.

Keywords: gold nanoparticles, human serum albumin, fluorescein, femtosecond transient absorption

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2548 Using Computational Fluid Dynamics to Model and Design a Preventative Application for Strong Wind

Authors: Ming-Hwi Yao, Su-Szu Yang

Abstract:

Typhoons are one of the major types of disasters that affect Taiwan each year and that cause severe damage to agriculture. Indeed, the damage exacted during a typical typhoon season can be up to $1 billion, and is responsible for nearly 75% of yearly agricultural losses. However, there is no consensus on how to reduce the damage caused by the strong winds and heavy precipitation engendered by typhoons. One suggestion is the use of windbreak nets, which are a low-cost and easy-to-use disaster mitigation strategy for crop production. In the present study, we conducted an evaluation to determine the optimal conditions of a windbreak net by using a computational fluid dynamics (CFD) model. This model may be used as a reference for crop protection. The results showed that CFD simulation validated windbreak nets of different mesh sizes and heights in the experimental area; thus, CFD is an efficient tool for evaluating the effectiveness of windbreak nets. Specifically, the effective wind protection length and height were found to be 6 and 1.3 times the length and height of the windbreak net, respectively. During a real typhoon, maximum wind gusts of 18 m s-1 can be reduced to 4 m s-1 by using a windbreak net that has a 70% blocking rate. In short, windbreak nets are significantly effective in protecting typhoon-affected areas.

Keywords: computational fluid dynamics, disaster, typhoon, windbreak net

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2547 Molecular Dynamics Study on Mechanical Responses of Circular Graphene Nanoflake under Nanoindentation

Authors: Jeong-Won Kang

Abstract:

Graphene, a single-atom sheet, has been considered as the most promising material for making future nanoelectromechanical systems as well as purely electrical switching with graphene transistors. Graphene-based devices have advantages in scaled-up device fabrication due to the recent progress in large area graphene growth and lithographic patterning of graphene nanostructures. Here we investigated its mechanical responses of circular graphene nanoflake under the nanoindentation using classical molecular dynamics simulations. A correlation between the load and the indentation depth was constructed. The nanoindented force in this work was applied to the center point of the circular graphene nanoflake and then, the resonance frequency could be tuned by a nanoindented depth. We found the hardening or the softening of the graphene nanoflake during its nanoindented-deflections, and such properties were recognized by the shift of the resonance frequency. The calculated mechanical parameters in the force vs deflection plot were in good agreement with previous experimental and theoretical works. This proposed schematics can detect the pressure via the deflection change or/and the resonance frequency shift, and also have great potential for versatile applications in nanoelectromechanical systems.

Keywords: graphene, pressure sensor, circular graphene nanoflake, molecular dynamics

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2546 Mass Transfer Studies of Carbon Dioxide Absorption in Sodium Hydroxide in Millichannels

Authors: A. Durgadevi, S. Pushpavanam

Abstract:

In this work, absorption studies are done by conducting experiments of 99.9 (v/v%) pure CO₂ with various concentrations of sodium hydroxide solutions in a T-junction glass circular milli-channel. The gas gets absorbed in the aqueous phase resulting in the shrinking of slugs. This phenomenon is used to develop a lumped parameter model. Using this model, the chemical dissolution dynamics and the mass transfer characteristics of the CO₂-NaOH system is analysed. The liquid side mass transfer coefficient is determined with the help of the experimental data.

Keywords: absorption, dissolution dynamics, lumped parameter model, milli-channel, mass transfer coefficient

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2545 Modeling Dynamics and Control of Transversal Vibration of an Underactuated Flexible Plate Using Controlled Lagrangian Method

Authors: Mahmood Khalghollah, Mohammad Tavallaeinejad, Mohammad Eghtesad

Abstract:

The method of Controlled Lagrangian is an energy shaping control technique for under actuated Lagrangian systems. Energy shaping control design methods are appealing as they retain the underlying nonlinear dynamics and can provide stability results that hold over larger domain than can be obtained using linear design and analysis. In the present study, controlled lagrangian is employed for designing a controller in an under actuated rotating flexible plate system. In the system of rotating flexible plate, due to its nonlinear characteristics and coupled dynamics of rigid and flexible components, controller design is a known challenge. In this paper, controller objectives are considered to be vibration reduction of flexible component and position control of the tip of the plate. To achieve the goals, a method based on both kinetic and potential energy shaping is introduced. The stability of the closed-loop system is investigated and proved around its equilibrium points. Moreover, the proposed controller is shown to be robust against disturbance and plant uncertainties.

Keywords: controlled lagrangian, underactuated system, flexible rotating plate, disturbance

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2544 Molecular Dynamics Simulation of Free Vibration of Graphene Sheets

Authors: Seyyed Feisal Asbaghian Namin, Reza Pilafkan, Mahmood Kaffash Irzarahimi

Abstract:

TThis paper considers vibration of single-layered graphene sheets using molecular dynamics (MD) and nonlocal elasticity theory. Based on the MD simulations, Large-scale Atomic/Molecular Massively Parallel Simulator (LAMMPS), an open source software, is used to obtain fundamental frequencies. On the other hand, governing equations are derived using nonlocal elasticity and first order shear deformation theory (FSDT) and solved using generalized differential quadrature method (GDQ). The small-scale effect is applied in governing equations of motion by nonlocal parameter. The effect of different side lengths, boundary conditions and nonlocal parameter are inspected for aforementioned methods. Results are obtained from MD simulations is compared with those of the nonlocal elasticity theory to calculate appropriate values for the nonlocal parameter. The nonlocal parameter value is suggested for graphene sheets with various boundary conditions. Furthermore, it is shown that the nonlocal elasticity approach using classical plate theory (CLPT) assumptions overestimates the natural frequencies.

Keywords: graphene sheets, molecular dynamics simulations, fundamental frequencies, nonlocal elasticity theory, nonlocal parameter

Procedia PDF Downloads 477
2543 The System Dynamics Research of China-Africa Trade, Investment and Economic Growth

Authors: Emma Serwaa Obobisaa, Haibo Chen

Abstract:

International trade and outward foreign direct investment are important factors which are generally recognized in the economic growth and development. Though several scholars have struggled to reveal the influence of trade and outward foreign direct investment (FDI) on economic growth, most studies utilized common econometric models such as vector autoregression and aggregated the variables, which for the most part prompts, however, contradictory and mixed results. Thus, there is an exigent need for the precise study of the trade and FDI effect of economic growth while applying strong econometric models and disaggregating the variables into its separate individual variables to explicate their respective effects on economic growth. This will guarantee the provision of policies and strategies that are geared towards individual variables to ensure sustainable development and growth. This study, therefore, seeks to examine the causal effect of China-Africa trade and Outward Foreign Direct Investment on the economic growth of Africa using a robust and recent econometric approach such as system dynamics model. Our study impanels and tests an ensemble of a group of vital variables predominant in recent studies on trade-FDI-economic growth causality: Foreign direct ınvestment, international trade and economic growth. Our results showed that the system dynamics method provides accurate statistical inference regarding the direction of the causality among the variables than the conventional method such as OLS and Granger Causality predominantly used in the literature as it is more robust and provides accurate, critical values.

Keywords: economic growth, outward foreign direct investment, system dynamics model, international trade

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2542 Computational Fluid Dynamics Simulations of Thermal and Flow Fields inside a Desktop Personal Computer Cabin

Authors: Mohammad Salehi, Mohammad Erfan Doraki

Abstract:

In this paper, airflow analysis inside a desktop computer case is performed by simulating computational fluid dynamics. The purpose is to investigate the cooling process of the central processing unit (CPU) with thermal capacities of 80 and 130 watts. The airflow inside the computer enclosure, selected from the microATX model, consists of the main components of heat production such as CPU, hard disk drive, CD drive, floppy drive, memory card and power supply unit; According to the amount of thermal power produced by the CPU with 80 and 130 watts of power, two different geometries have been used for a direct and radial heat sink. First, the independence of the computational mesh and the validation of the solution were performed, and after ensuring the correctness of the numerical solution, the results of the solution were analyzed. The simulation results showed that changes in CPU temperature and other components linearly increased with increasing CPU heat output. Also, the ambient air temperature has a significant effect on the maximum processor temperature.

Keywords: computational fluid dynamics, CPU cooling, computer case simulation, heat sink

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2541 Unravelling the Enigma of Military Coups Through the Lens of State Fragility: A Qualitative Exploration of the Malian and Burkinabe Cases

Authors: Deretha Bester

Abstract:

This article explores the recent military coups in Mali (August 2020) and Burkina Faso (January 2022), utilizing qualitative case study analyses to examine the pre-coup domestic contextual conditions that precipitated the events. By framing the research through the conceptual lens of state fragility, the research identifies key political, economic, and societal factors that converge to create an environment conducive for coups to occur. From the analyses, the study discusses several patterns that emerged, all revealing the significance of the core functions of governance. Through an in-depth exploration that brings the state back into the coup debate, the study provides rich insights into the complex dynamics of military intervention in political affairs, highlighting the urgency of understanding the underlying domestic factors that can lead to radical political changes. By illuminating these intricate dynamics, the article seeks to provide detailed insights needed to fully understand the challenges moulding the region's political terrain.

Keywords: military coups, state fragility, governance failures, political dynamics, sahel region

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2540 A Fractional Derivative Model to Quantify Non-Darcy Flow in Porous and Fractured Media

Authors: Golden J. Zhang, Dongbao Zhou

Abstract:

Darcy’s law is the fundamental theory in fluid dynamics and engineering applications. Although Darcy linearity was found to be valid for slow, viscous flow, non-linear and non-Darcian flow has been well documented under both small and large velocity fluid flow. Various classical models were proposed and used widely to quantify non-Darcian flow, including the well-known Forchheimer, Izbash, and Swartzendruber models. Applications, however, revealed limitations of these models. Here we propose a general model built upon the Caputo fractional derivative to quantify non-Darcian flow for various flows (laminar to turbulence).Real-world applications and model comparisons showed that the new fractional-derivative model, which extends the fractional model proposed recently by Zhou and Yang (2018), can capture the non-Darcian flow in the relatively small velocity in low-permeability deposits and the relatively high velocity in high-permeability sand. A scale effect was also identified for non-Darcian flow in fractured rocks. Therefore, fractional calculus may provide an efficient tool to improve classical models to quantify fluid dynamics in aquatic environments.

Keywords: fractional derivative, darcy’s law, non-darcian flow, fluid dynamics

Procedia PDF Downloads 88
2539 Validating the Micro-Dynamic Rule in Opinion Dynamics Models

Authors: Dino Carpentras, Paul Maher, Caoimhe O'Reilly, Michael Quayle

Abstract:

Opinion dynamics is dedicated to modeling the dynamic evolution of people's opinions. Models in this field are based on a micro-dynamic rule, which determines how people update their opinion when interacting. Despite the high number of new models (many of them based on new rules), little research has been dedicated to experimentally validate the rule. A few studies started bridging this literature gap by experimentally testing the rule. However, in these studies, participants are forced to express their opinion as a number instead of using natural language. Furthermore, some of these studies average data from experimental questions, without testing if differences existed between them. Indeed, it is possible that different topics could show different dynamics. For example, people may be more prone to accepting someone's else opinion regarding less polarized topics. In this work, we collected data from 200 participants on 5 unpolarized topics. Participants expressed their opinions using natural language ('agree' or 'disagree') and the certainty of their answer, expressed as a number between 1 and 10. To keep the interaction based on natural language, certainty was not shown to other participants. We then showed to the participant someone else's opinion on the same topic and, after a distraction task, we repeated the measurement. To produce data compatible with standard opinion dynamics models, we multiplied the opinion (encoded as agree=1 and disagree=-1) with the certainty to obtain a single 'continuous opinion' ranging from -10 to 10. By analyzing the topics independently, we observed that each one shows a different initial distribution. However, the dynamics (i.e., the properties of the opinion change) appear to be similar between all topics. This suggested that the same micro-dynamic rule could be applied to unpolarized topics. Another important result is that participants that change opinion tend to maintain similar levels of certainty. This is in contrast with typical micro-dynamics rules, where agents move to an average point instead of directly jumping to the opposite continuous opinion. As expected, in the data, we also observed the effect of social influence. This means that exposing someone with 'agree' or 'disagree' influenced participants to respectively higher or lower values of the continuous opinion. However, we also observed random variations whose effect was stronger than the social influence’s one. We even observed cases of people that changed from 'agree' to 'disagree,' even if they were exposed to 'agree.' This phenomenon is surprising, as, in the standard literature, the strength of the noise is usually smaller than the strength of social influence. Finally, we also built an opinion dynamics model from the data. The model was able to explain more than 80% of the data variance. Furthermore, by iterating the model, we were able to produce polarized states even starting from an unpolarized population. This experimental approach offers a way to test the micro-dynamic rule. This also allows us to build models which are directly grounded on experimental results.

Keywords: experimental validation, micro-dynamic rule, opinion dynamics, update rule

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2538 Mapping Structurally Significant Areas of G-CSF during Thermal Degradation with NMR

Authors: Mark-Adam Kellerman

Abstract:

Proteins are capable of exploring vast mutational spaces. This makes it difficult for protein engineers to devise rational methods to improve stability and function via mutagenesis. Deciding which residues to mutate requires knowledge of the characteristics they elicit. We probed the characteristics of residues in granulocyte-colony stimulating factor (G-CSF) using a thermal melt (from 295K to 323K) to denature it in a 700 MHz Bruker spectrometer. These characteristics included dynamics, micro-environmental changes experienced/ induced during denaturing and structure-function relationships. 15N-1H HSQC experiments were performed at 2K increments along with this thermal melt. We observed that dynamic residues that also undergo a lot of change in their microenvironment were predominantly in unstructured regions. Moreover, we were able to identify four residues (G4, A6, T133 and Q134) that we class as high priority targets for mutagenesis, given that they all appear in both the top 10% of measures for environmental changes and dynamics (∑Δ and ∆PI). We were also able to probe these NMR observables and combine them with molecular dynamics (MD) to elucidate what appears to be an opening motion of G-CSFs binding site III. V48 appears to be pivotal to this opening motion, which also seemingly distorts the loop region between helices A and B. This observation is in agreement with previous findings that the conformation of this loop region becomes altered in an aggregation-prone state of G-CSF. Hence, we present here an approach to profile the characteristics of residues in order to highlight their potential as rational mutagenesis targets and their roles in important conformational changes. These findings present not only an opportunity to effectively make biobetters, but also open up the possibility to further understand epistasis and machine learn residue behaviours.

Keywords: protein engineering, rational mutagenesis, NMR, molecular dynamics

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2537 Insect Outbreaks, Harvesting and Wildfire in Forests: Mathematical Models for Coupling Disturbances

Authors: M. C. A. Leite, B. Chen-Charpentier, F. Agusto

Abstract:

A long-term goal of sustainable forest management is a relatively stable source of wood and a stable forest age-class structure has become the goal of many forest management practices. In the absence of disturbances, this forest management goal could easily be achieved. However, in the face of recurring insect outbreaks and other disruptive processes forest planning becomes more difficult, requiring knowledge of the effects on the forest of a wide variety of environmental factors (e.g., habitat heterogeneity, fire size and frequency, harvesting, insect outbreaks, and age distributions). The association between distinct forest disturbances and the potential effect on forest dynamics is a complex matter, particularly when evaluated over time and at large scale, and is not well understood. However, gaining knowledge in this area is crucial for a sustainable forest management. Mathematical modeling is a tool that can be used to broader the understanding in this area. In this talk we will introduce mathematical models formulation incorporating the effect of insect outbreaks either as a single disturbance in the forest population dynamics or coupled with other disturbances: either wildfire or harvesting. The results and ecological insights will be discussed.

Keywords: age-structured forest population, disturbances interaction, harvesting insects outbreak dynamics, mathematical modeling

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2536 Effect of Channel Variation of Two-Dimensional Water Tunnel to Study Fluid Dynamics Phenomenon

Authors: Rizka Yunita, Mas Aji Rizki Wijayanto

Abstract:

Computational fluid dynamics (CFD) is the solution to explain how fluid dynamics behavior. In this work, we obtain the effect of channel width of two-dimensional fluid visualization. Using a horizontal water tunnel and flowing soap film, we got a visualization of continuous film that can be observe a graphical overview of the flow that occurs on a space or field in which the fluid flow. The horizontal water tunnel we used, divided into three parts, expansion area, parallel area that used to test the data, and contraction area. The width of channel is the boundary of parallel area with the originally width of 7.2 cm, and the variation of channel width we observed is about 1 cm and its times. To compute the velocity, vortex shedding, and other physical parameters of fluid, we used the cyclinder circular as an obstacle to create a von Karman vortex in fluid and analyzed that phenomenon by using Particle Imaging Velocimetry (PIV) method and comparing Reynolds number and Strouhal number from the visualization we got. More than width the channel, the film is more turbulent and have a separation zones that occurs of uncontinuous flowing fluid.

Keywords: flow visualization, width of channel, vortex, Reynolds number, Strouhal number

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2535 A Controlled Mathematical Model for Population Dynamics in an Infested Honeybees Colonies

Authors: Chakib Jerry, Mounir Jerry

Abstract:

In this paper, a mathematical model of infested honey bees colonies is formulated in order to investigate Colony Collapse Disorder in a honeybee colony. CCD, as it is known, is a major problem on honeybee farms because of the massive decline in colony numbers. We introduce to the model a control variable which represents forager protection. We study the controlled model to derive conditions under which the bee colony can fight off epidemic. Secondly we study the problem of minimizing prevention cost under model’s dynamics constraints.

Keywords: honey bee, disease transmission model, disease control honeybees, optimal control

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2534 Analyzing and Predicting the CL-20 Detonation Reaction Mechanism Based on Artificial Intelligence Algorithm

Authors: Kaining Zhang, Lang Chen, Danyang Liu, Jianying Lu, Kun Yang, Junying Wu

Abstract:

In order to solve the problem of a large amount of simulation and limited simulation scale in the first-principle molecular dynamics simulation of energetic material detonation reaction, we established an artificial intelligence model for analyzing and predicting the detonation reaction mechanism of CL-20 based on the first-principle molecular dynamics simulation of the multiscale shock technique (MSST). We employed principal component analysis to identify the dominant charge features governing molecular reactions. We adopted the K-means clustering algorithm to cluster the reaction paths and screen out the key reactions. We introduced the neural network algorithm to construct the mapping relationship between the charge characteristics of the molecular structure and the key reaction characteristics so as to establish a calculation method for predicting detonation reactions based on the charge characteristics of CL-20 and realize the rapid analysis of the reaction mechanism of energetic materials.

Keywords: energetic material detonation reaction, first-principle molecular dynamics simulation of multiscale shock technique, neural network, CL-20

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2533 Solutions for Comfort and Safety on Vibrations Resulting from the Action of the Wind on the Building in the Form of Portico with Four Floors

Authors: G. B. M. Carvalho, V. A. C. Vale, E. T. L. Cöuras Ford

Abstract:

With the aim of increasing the levels of comfort and security structures, the study of dynamic loads on buildings has been one of the focuses in the area of control engineering, civil engineering and architecture. Thus, this work presents a study based on simulation of the dynamics of buildings in the form of portico subjected to wind action, besides presenting an action of passive control, using for this the dynamics of the structure, consequently representing a system appropriated on environmental issues. These control systems are named the dynamic vibration absorbers.

Keywords: dynamic vibration absorber, structure, comfort, safety, wind behavior, structure

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2532 A System Dynamics Model for Analyzing Customer Satisfaction in Healthcare Systems

Authors: Mahdi Bastan, Ali Mohammad Ahmadvand, Fatemeh Soltani Khamsehpour

Abstract:

Health organizations’ sustainable development has nowadays become highly affected by customers’ satisfaction due to significant changes made in the business environment of the healthcare system and emerging of Competitiveness paradigm. In case we look at the hospitals and other health organizations as service providers concerning profit issues, the satisfaction of employees as interior customers, and patients as exterior customers would be of significant importance in health business success. Furthermore, satisfaction rate could be considered in performance assessment of healthcare organizations as a perceived quality measure. Several researches have been carried out in identification of effective factors on patients’ satisfaction in health organizations. However, considering a systemic view, the complex causal relations among many components of healthcare system would be an issue that its acquisition and sustainability requires an understanding of the dynamic complexity, an appropriate cognition of different components, and effective relationships among them resulting ultimately in identifying the generative structure of patients’ satisfaction. Hence, the presenting paper applies system dynamics approaches coherently and methodologically to represent the systemic structure of customers’ satisfaction of a health system involving the constituent components and interactions among them. Then, the results of different policies taken on the system are simulated via developing mathematical models, identifying leverage points, and using scenario making technique and then, the best solutions are presented to improve customers’ satisfaction of the services. The presenting approach supports taking advantage of decision support systems. Additionally, relying on understanding of system behavior Dynamics, the effective policies for improving the health system would be recognized.

Keywords: customer satisfaction, healthcare, scenario, simulation, system dynamics

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2531 Analysis of the Movie “Life and a Day”

Authors: Mehravar Javid, Katherine Marshall Woods, Joseph Kosowsky, Anna Missner

Abstract:

In this paper, "Life and a Day" is analyzed psychoanalytically with an emphasis on the ways by which addiction is influenced by personal psychology and familial ties. It explores the influence of parenting on one's sense of self and the function of therapeutic alliances in the treatment of addiction. The analysis also observes the main characters, with a special emphasis on Somayeh, who represents the continuation of her father's role in the family and faces identity and autonomy issues in the face of familial responsibilities. In addressing addiction, the document emphasizes the significance of comprehending family dynamics and individual psychological factors, emphasizing the interaction between personal trauma, family roles, and recovery.

Keywords: addiction, autonomy, family dynamics, identity, life and a day, psychoanalytic

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2530 Indicators of Regional Development, Case Study: Bucharest-Ilfov Region

Authors: Dan Cristian Popescu

Abstract:

The new territorial identities and global dynamics have determined a change of policies of economics, social and cultural development from a vertical to a horizontal approach, which is based on cooperation networks between institutional actors, economic operators or civil society representatives. The European integration has not only generated a different patterns of competitiveness, economic growth, concentration of attractive potential, but also disparities among regions of this country, or even in the countryside within a region. To a better understanding of the dynamics of regional development and the impact of this concept on Romania, I chose as a case study the region Bucharest-Ilfov which is analyzed on the basis of predetermined indicators and of the impact of European programs.

Keywords: regional competition, regional development, rural, urban

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2529 Scale Effects on the Wake Airflow of a Heavy Truck

Authors: Aude Pérard Lecomte, Georges Fokoua, Amine Mehel, Anne Tanière

Abstract:

Air quality in urban areas is deteriorated by pollution, mainly due to the constant increase of the traffic of different types of ground vehicles. In particular, particulate matter pollution with important concentrations in urban areas can cause serious health issues. Characterizing and understanding particle dynamics is therefore essential to establish recommendations to improve air quality in urban areas. To analyze the effects of turbulence on particulate pollutants dispersion, the first step is to focus on the single-phase flow structure and turbulence characteristics in the wake of a heavy truck model. To achieve this, Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) simulations were conducted with the aim of modeling the wake airflow of a full- and reduced-scale heavy truck. The Reynolds Average Navier-Stokes (RANS) approach with the Reynolds Stress Model (RSM)as the turbulence model closure was used. The simulations highlight the apparition of a large vortex coming from the under trailer. This vortex belongs to the recirculation region, located in the near-wake of the heavy truck. These vortical structures are expected to have a strong influence on particle dynamics that are emitted by the truck.

Keywords: CDF, heavy truck, recirculation region, reduced scale

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2528 Passport Bros: Exploring Neocolonial Masculinity and Sex Tourism as a Response to Shifting Gender Dynamics

Authors: Kellen Sharp

Abstract:

This study explores the phenomenon of ‘Passport Bros’, a subset within the manosphere responding to perceived crises in masculinity amidst changing gender dynamics. Focusing on a computational analysis of the passport bro community, the research addresses normative beliefs, deviations from MGTOW ideology, and discussions on nationality, race, and gender. Originating from the MGTOW movement, passport bros engage in a neocolonial approach by seeking traditional, non-Western women, attributing this pursuit to dissatisfaction with modern Western women. The paper examines how hetero pessimism within MGTOW shapes the emergence of passport bros, leading to the adoption of red pill ideologies and ultimately manifesting in the form of sex tourism. Analyzing data collected from passport bro forums through computer-assisted content analysis, the study identifies key discourses such as questions and answers, money, attitudes towards Western and traditional women, and discussions about the movement itself. The findings highlight the nuanced intersection of gender, race, and global power dynamics within the passport bro community, shedding light on their motivations and impact on neocolonial legacies.

Keywords: toxic online community, manosphere, gender and media, neocolonialism

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2527 Monitoring the Vegetation Cover Dynamics of the African Great Green Wall in Yobe State Nigeria

Authors: Isa Muhammad Zumo

Abstract:

The African Great Green Wall (GGW) is a significant initiative in northern Nigeria because it promotes land restoration and conservation utilizing both commercial and species of forest trees while also helping to mitigate desertification and hazards from the sand dunes and shifting Sahara deserts. Conflicts and weather, however, pose a significant danger to the achievement of these goals. The scientific method for monitoring the vegetation dynamics since inception has not received the required attention, despite the African Development Bank (ADB)'s help in funding the project and its integration into the state's development plans for GGW initiatives. This study will monitor the changes in the vegetation cover of the great green wall within Yobe State Nigeria from 2014 to 2023. The vegetation dynamics will be monitored using Landsat 8 Operational Land Imager (OLI) for 6 years at 2 years intervals. The result will show the fluctuations in the vegetation cover density within the period of study. This will guide the design and implementation of policies of the GGW in achieving its objectives. The result can also contribute to the realization of Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) Target 13.2: Integrate climate change measures into national policies, strategies, and planning.

Keywords: monitoring, green wall, Landsat 8, Nigeria

Procedia PDF Downloads 46