Search results for: return on investment
Commenced in January 2007
Frequency: Monthly
Edition: International
Paper Count: 2047

Search results for: return on investment

187 Internationalization Process Model for Construction Firms: Stages and Strategies

Authors: S. Ping Ho, R. Dahal

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The global economy has drastically changed how firms operate and compete. Although the construction industry is ‘local’ by its nature, the internationalization of the construction industry has become an inevitable reality. As a result of global competition, staying domestic is no longer safe from competition and, on the contrary, to grow and become an MNE (multi-national enterprise) becomes one of the important strategies for a firm to survive in the global competition. For the successful entrance into competing markets, the firms need to re-define their competitive advantages and re-identify the sources of the competitive advantages. A firm’s initiation of internationalization is not necessarily a result of strategic planning but also involves certain idiosyncratic events that pave the path leading to a firm’s internationalization. For example, a local firm’s incidental or unintentional collaboration with an MNE can become the initiating point of its internationalization process. However, because of the intensive competition in today’s global movement, many firms were compelled to initiate their internationalization as a strategic response to the competition. Understandingly stepping in in the process of internationalization and appropriately implementing the strategies (in the process) at different stages lead the construction firms to a successful internationalization journey. This study is carried out to develop a model of the internationalization process, which derives appropriate strategies that the construction firms can implement at each stage. The proposed model integrates two major and complementary views of internationalization and expresses the dynamic process of internationalization in three stages, which are the pre-international (PRE) stage, the foreign direct investment (FDI) stage, and the multi-national enterprise (MNE) stage. The strategies implied in the proposed model are derived, focusing on capability building, market locations, and entry modes based on the resource-based views: value, rareness, imitability, and substitutability (VRIN). With the proposed dynamic process model the potential construction firms which are willing to expand their business market area can be benefitted. Strategies for internationalization, such as core competence strategy, market selection, partner selection, and entry mode strategy, can be derived from the proposed model. The internationalization process is expressed in two different forms. First, we discuss the construction internationalization process, identify the driving factor/s of the process, and explain the strategy formation in the process. Second, we define the stages of internationalization along the process and the corresponding strategies in each stage. The strategies may include how to exploit existing advantages for the competition at the current stage and develop or explore additional advantages appropriate for the next stage. Particularly, the additionally developed advantages will then be accumulated and drive forward the firm’s stage of internationalization, which will further determine the subsequent strategies, and so on and so forth, spiraling up the stages of a higher degree of internationalization. However, the formation of additional strategies for the next stage does not happen automatically, and the strategy evolution is based on the firm’s dynamic capabilities.

Keywords: construction industry, dynamic capabilities, internationalization process, internationalization strategies, strategic management

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186 Classification of ECG Signal Based on Mixture of Linear and Non-Linear Features

Authors: Mohammad Karimi Moridani, Mohammad Abdi Zadeh, Zahra Shahiazar Mazraeh

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In recent years, the use of intelligent systems in biomedical engineering has increased dramatically, especially in the diagnosis of various diseases. Also, due to the relatively simple recording of the electrocardiogram signal (ECG), this signal is a good tool to show the function of the heart and diseases associated with it. The aim of this paper is to design an intelligent system for automatically detecting a normal electrocardiogram signal from abnormal one. Using this diagnostic system, it is possible to identify a person's heart condition in a very short time and with high accuracy. The data used in this article are from the Physionet database, available in 2016 for use by researchers to provide the best method for detecting normal signals from abnormalities. Data is of both genders and the data recording time varies between several seconds to several minutes. All data is also labeled normal or abnormal. Due to the low positional accuracy and ECG signal time limit and the similarity of the signal in some diseases with the normal signal, the heart rate variability (HRV) signal was used. Measuring and analyzing the heart rate variability with time to evaluate the activity of the heart and differentiating different types of heart failure from one another is of interest to the experts. In the preprocessing stage, after noise cancelation by the adaptive Kalman filter and extracting the R wave by the Pan and Tampkinz algorithm, R-R intervals were extracted and the HRV signal was generated. In the process of processing this paper, a new idea was presented that, in addition to using the statistical characteristics of the signal to create a return map and extraction of nonlinear characteristics of the HRV signal due to the nonlinear nature of the signal. Finally, the artificial neural networks widely used in the field of ECG signal processing as well as distinctive features were used to classify the normal signals from abnormal ones. To evaluate the efficiency of proposed classifiers in this paper, the area under curve ROC was used. The results of the simulation in the MATLAB environment showed that the AUC of the MLP and SVM neural network was 0.893 and 0.947, respectively. As well as, the results of the proposed algorithm in this paper indicated that the more use of nonlinear characteristics in normal signal classification of the patient showed better performance. Today, research is aimed at quantitatively analyzing the linear and non-linear or descriptive and random nature of the heart rate variability signal, because it has been shown that the amount of these properties can be used to indicate the health status of the individual's heart. The study of nonlinear behavior and dynamics of the heart's neural control system in the short and long-term provides new information on how the cardiovascular system functions, and has led to the development of research in this field. Given that the ECG signal contains important information and is one of the common tools used by physicians to diagnose heart disease, but due to the limited accuracy of time and the fact that some information about this signal is hidden from the viewpoint of physicians, the design of the intelligent system proposed in this paper can help physicians with greater speed and accuracy in the diagnosis of normal and patient individuals and can be used as a complementary system in the treatment centers.

Keywords: neart rate variability, signal processing, linear and non-linear features, classification methods, ROC Curve

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185 Leadership Education for Law Enforcement Mid-Level Managers: The Mediating Role of Effectiveness of Training on Transformational and Authentic Leadership Traits

Authors: Kevin Baxter, Ron Grove, James Pitney, John Harrison, Ozlem Gumus

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The purpose of this research is to determine the mediating effect of effectiveness of the training provided by Northwestern University’s School of Police Staff and Command (SPSC), on the ability of law enforcement mid-level managers to learn transformational and authentic leadership traits. This study will also evaluate the leadership styles, of course, graduates compared to non-attendees using a static group comparison design. The Louisiana State Police pay approximately $40,000 in salary, tuition, housing, and meals for each state police lieutenant attending the 10-week program of the SPSC. This school lists the development of transformational leaders as an increasing element. Additionally, the SPSC curriculum addresses all four components of authentic leadership - self-awareness, transparency, ethical/moral, and balanced processing. Upon return to law enforcement in roles of mid-level management, there are questions as to whether or not students revert to an “autocratic” leadership style. Insufficient evidence exists to support claims for the effectiveness of management training or leadership development. Though it is widely recognized that transformational styles are beneficial to law enforcement, there is little evidence that suggests police leadership styles are changing. Police organizations continue to hold to a more transactional style (i.e., most senior police leaders remain autocrats). Additionally, research in the application of transformational, transactional, and laissez-faire leadership related to police organizations is minimal. The population of the study is law enforcement mid-level managers from various states within the United States who completed leadership training presented by the SPSC. The sample will be composed of 66 active law enforcement mid-level managers (lieutenants and captains) who have graduated from SPSC and 65 active law enforcement mid-level managers (lieutenants and captains) who have not attended SPSC. Participants will answer demographics questions, Multifactor Leadership Questionnaire, Authentic Leadership Questionnaire, and the Kirkpatrick Hybrid Evaluation Survey. Analysis from descriptive statistics, group comparison, one-way MANCOVA, and the Kirkpatrick Evaluation Model survey will be used to determine training effectiveness in the four levels of reaction, learning, behavior, and results. Independent variables are SPSC graduates (two groups: upper and lower) and no-SPSC attendees, and dependent variables are transformational and authentic leadership scores. SPSC graduates are expected to have higher MLQ scores for transformational leadership traits and higher ALQ scores for authentic leadership traits than SPSC non-attendees. We also expect the graduates to rate the efficacy of SPSC leadership training as high. This study will validate (or invalidate) the benefits, costs, and resources required for leadership development from a nationally recognized police leadership program, and it will also help fill the gap in the literature that exists between law enforcement professional development and transformational and authentic leadership styles.

Keywords: training effectiveness, transformational leadership, authentic leadership, law enforcement mid-level manager

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184 Applying Quadrant Analysis in Identifying Business-to-Business Customer-Driven Improvement Opportunities in Third Party Logistics Industry

Authors: Luay Jum'a

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Many challenges are facing third-party logistics (3PL) providers in the domestic and global markets which create a volatile decision making environment. All these challenges such as managing changes in consumer behaviour, demanding expectations from customers and time compressions have turned into complex problems for 3PL providers. Since the movement towards increased outsourcing outpaces movement towards insourcing, the need to achieve a competitive advantage over competitors in 3PL market increases. This trend continues to grow over the years and as a result, areas of strengths and improvements are highlighted through the analysis of the LSQ factors that lead to B2B customers’ satisfaction which become a priority for 3PL companies. Consequently, 3PL companies are increasingly focusing on the most important issues from the perspective of their customers and relying more on this value of information in making their managerial decisions. Therefore, this study is concerned with providing guidance for improving logistics service quality (LSQ) levels in the context of 3PL industry in Jordan. The study focused on the most important factors in LSQ and used a managerial tool that guides 3PL companies in making LSQ improvements based on a quadrant analysis of two main dimensions: LSQ declared importance and LSQ inferred importance. Although, a considerable amount of research has been conducted to investigate the relationship between logistics service quality (LSQ) and customer satisfaction, there remains a lack of developing managerial tools to aid in the process of LSQ improvement decision-making. Moreover, the main advantage for the companies to use 3PL service providers as a trend is due to the realised percentage of cost reduction on the total cost of logistics operations and the incremental improvement in customer service. In this regard, having a managerial tool that help 3PL service providers in managing the LSQ factors portfolio effectively and efficiently would be a great investment for service providers. One way of suggesting LSQ improvement actions for 3PL service providers is via the adoption of analysis tools that perform attribute categorisation such as Importance–Performance matrix. In mind of the above, it can be stated that the use of quadrant analysis will provide a valuable opportunity for 3PL service providers to identify improvement opportunities as customer service attributes or factors importance are identified in two different techniques that complete each other. Moreover, the data were collected through conducting a survey and 293 questionnaires were returned from business-to-business (B2B) customers of 3PL companies in Jordan. The results showed that the LSQ factors vary in their importance and 3PL companies should focus on some LSQ factors more than other factors. Moreover, ordering procedures, timeliness/responsiveness LSQ factors considered being crucial in 3PL businesses and therefore they need to have more focus and development by 3PL service providers in the Jordanian market.

Keywords: logistics service quality, managerial decisions, quadrant analysis, third party logistics service provider

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183 A Scoping Review of the Relationship Between Oral Health and Wellbeing: The Myth and Reality

Authors: Heba Salama, Barry Gibson, Jennifer Burr

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Introduction: It is often argued that better oral health leads to better wellbeing, and the goal of dental care is to improve wellbeing. Notwithstanding, to our best knowledge, there is a lack of evidence to support the relationship between oral health and wellbeing. Aim: The scoping review aims to examine current definitions of health and wellbeing as well as map the evidence to examine the relationship between oral health and wellbeing. Methods: The scoping review followed the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews Extension for Scoping Review (PRISMA-ScR). A two-phase search strategy was followed because of the unmanageable number of hits returned. The first phase was to identify how well-being was conceptualised in oral health literacy, and the second phase was to search for extracted keywords. The extracted keywords were searched in four databases: PubMed, CINAHL, PsycINFO, and Web of Science. To limit the number of studies to a manageable amount, the search was limited to the open-access studies that have been published in the last five years (from 2018 to 2022). Results: Only eight studies (0.1%) of the 5455 results met the review inclusion criteria. Most of the included studies defined wellbeing based on the hedonic theory. And the Satisfaction with Life Scale is the most used. Although the research results are inconsistent, it has generally been shown that there is a weak or no association between oral health and wellbeing. Interpretation: The review revealed a very important point about how oral health literature uses loose definitions that have significant implications for empirical research. That results in misleading evidence-based conclusions. According to the review results, improving oral health is not a key factor in improving wellbeing. It appears that investing in oral health care to improve wellbeing is not a top priority to tell policymakers about. This does not imply that there should be no investment in oral health care to improve oral health. That could have an indirect link to wellbeing by eliminating the potential oral health-related barriers to quality of life that could represent the foundation of wellbeing. Limitation: Only the most recent five years (2018–2022), peer-reviewed English-language literature, and four electronic databases were included in the search. These restrictions were put in place to keep the volume of literature at a manageable level. This suggests that some significant studies might have been omitted. Furthermore, the study used a definition of wellbeing that is currently being evolved and might not everyone agrees with it. Conclusion: Whilst it is a ubiquitous argument that oral health is related to wellbeing, and this seems logical, there is little empirical evidence to support this claim. This question, therefore, requires much more detailed consideration. Funding: This project was funded by the Ministry of Higher Education and Scientific Research in Libya and Tripoli University.

Keywords: oral health, wellbeing, satisfaction, emotion, quality of life, oral health related quality of life

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182 Human Interaction Skills and Employability in Courses with Internships: Report of a Decade of Success in Information Technology

Authors: Filomena Lopes, Miguel Magalhaes, Carla Santos Pereira, Natercia Durao, Cristina Costa-Lobo

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The option to implement curricular internships with undergraduate students is a pedagogical option with some good results perceived by academic staff, employers, and among graduates in general and IT (Information Technology) in particular. Knowing that this type of exercise has never been so relevant, as one tries to give meaning to the future in a landscape of rapid and deep changes. We have as an example the potential disruptive impact on the jobs of advances in robotics, artificial intelligence and 3-D printing, which is a focus of fierce debate. It is in this context that more and more students and employers engage in the pursuit of career-promoting responses and business development, making their investment decisions of training and hiring. Three decades of experience and research in computer science degree and in information systems technologies degree at the Portucalense University, Portuguese private university, has provided strong evidence of its advantages. The Human Interaction Skills development as well as the attractiveness of such experiences for students are topics assumed as core in the Ccnception and management of the activities implemented in these study cycles. The objective of this paper is to gather evidence of the Human Interaction Skills explained and valued within the curriculum internship experiences of IT students employability. Data collection was based on the application of questionnaire to intern counselors and to students who have completed internships in these undergraduate courses in the last decade. The trainee supervisor, responsible for monitoring the performance of IT students in the evolution of traineeship activities, evaluates the following Human Interaction Skills: Motivation and interest in the activities developed, interpersonal relationship, cooperation in company activities, assiduity, ease of knowledge apprehension, Compliance with norms, insertion in the work environment, productivity, initiative, ability to take responsibility, creativity in proposing solutions, and self-confidence. The results show that these undergraduate courses promote the development of Human Interaction Skills and that these students, once they finish their degree, are able to initiate remunerated work functions, mainly by invitation of the institutions in which they perform curricular internships. Findings obtained from the present study contribute to widen the analysis of its effectiveness in terms of future research and actions in regard to the transition from Higher Education pathways to the Labour Market.

Keywords: human interaction skills, employability, internships, information technology, higher education

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181 A Review of the Future of Sustainable Urban Water Supply in South Africa

Authors: Jeremiah Mutamba

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Water is a critical resource for sustainable economic growth and social development. It enables societies to thrive and influences every urban center’s future. Thus, water must always be available in the right quantity and quality. However, in South Africa - a known physically water scarce nation – the future of sustainable urban supply of water may be in jeopardy. The country facing a water crisis influenced by insufficient infrastructure investment and maintenance, recurrent droughts and climate variation, human induced water quality deterioration, as well as growing lack of technical capacity in water institutions, particularly local municipalities. Aside of the eight metropolitan municipalities for the country, most municipalities struggle with provision of reliable water to their citizens. These municipalities contend with having now capable engineers, aging infrastructure with concomitant high system water losses (of 30% and upwards), coupled with growing water demand from expanding industries and population growth. Also, a significant portion (44%) of national water treatment plants are in critically poor condition, requiring urgent rehabilitation. Municipalities also struggle to raise funding to instate projects. All these factors militate against sustainable urban water supply in the country. Urgent mitigation measures are required. This paper seeks to review the extent of the current water supply challenges in South Africa’s urban centers, including searching for practical and cost-effective measures. The study followed a qualitative approach, combining desktop literature research, interviews with key sector stakeholders, and a workshop. Phenomenological data analysis technique was used to study and examine interview data and secondary desktop data. Preliminary findings established the building of technical or engineering capacity, reversal of the high physical water losses, rehabilitation of poor condition and dysfunctional water treatment works, diversification of water resource mix, and water scarcity awareness programs as possible practical solutions. Other proposed solutions include the use of performance-based or value-based contracting to fund initiatives to reduce high system water losses. Out-come based arrangements for revenue increasing water loss reduction projects were considered more practical in funding-stressed local municipalities. If proactively implemented in an integrated manner, these proposed solutions are likely to ensure sustainable urban water supply in South African urban centers in the future.

Keywords: sustainable, water scarcity, water supply, South Africa

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180 The Urgent Quest for an Alliance between the Global North and Global South to Manage the Risk of Refugees and Asylum Seekers

Authors: Mulindwa Gerald

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Forced Migration is believed to be the most pressing issue in migration studies today, it therefore makes it of paramount importance that we examine the efficacy of the prevailing laws, treaties, conventions and global policies of refugee management. It suffices to note that the existing policies are vague and ambiguous encouraging the hospitality but not assessing the social economic impact to not only the refugees but also their host communities. The commentary around the Off-shore arrangements like one of UK-Rwanda and the legal implications of the same, make it even more fascinating. These are issues that need to be amplified and captured in the Migration Policies. In Uganda, a small landlocked country in East Africa, there always appeared new faces who were refugees from the Congo and Rwanda the neighboring countries to the West and South West respectively. The refugees would migrate to Uganda with absolutely no idea whatsoever how they were going to meet the daily needs of life, no food, no shelter, no clothing. It interest’s one’s mind to conscientiously interrogate the policy issues surrounding refugee management. The 1951 convention sets a number of obligations to states and the conundrum, faced by citizens of the universe interested in Migration studies is ensuring maximum compliance to these obligations considering the resource challenges. States have a duty to protect refugees in accordance with Article 14 of the Universal Declaration for Human Rights which was adopted by the 1951 convention, these speak to rights like the most important right of refugees known as the Principle of Non-Refoulement, which prohibits expulsion or return of refugees or asylum seekers The International Organization for Migrations projection of the number of migrants globally by 2050 was overwhelmingly surpassed by 2019 due to wars, conflicts that have been experienced in different parts of the globe. This is also due natural calamities and tough economic conditions. It is a descriptive analysis that encompasses a qualitative design research based on a case study involving both desk research and field study. The use of qualitative research approaches like interview guides, document review and direct observation methods helped to bring in the experience, social, behavioral and cultural aspects of the respondents into the study, and since qualitative research uses subjective information and not limited to the rigidly definable variables, thus it helped to explore the research area of the study. it therefore verily believe that this paper is going to trigger perspectives and spark a conversation on this really pressing global issue of refugees and asylum seekers, it is suggesting viable solutions to the management challenges while making recommendations like the ensuring that no refugees or asylum seekers are closed at any borders on the globe for instance a concerted effort of all global players to ensure that refugees are protected efficiently.

Keywords: management, migration, refugees, rights

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179 Economic Impact and Benefits of Integrating Augmented Reality Technology in the Healthcare Industry: A Systematic Review

Authors: Brenda Thean I. Lim, Safurah Jaafar

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Augmented reality (AR) in the healthcare industry has been gaining popularity in recent years, principally in areas of medical education, patient care and digital health solutions. One of the drivers in deciding to invest in AR technology is the potential economic benefits it could bring for patients and healthcare providers, including the pharmaceutical and medical technology sectors. Works of literature have shown that the benefits and impact of AR technologies have left trails of achievements in improving medical education and patient health outcomes. However, little has been published on the economic impact of AR in healthcare, a very resource-intensive industry. This systematic review was performed on studies focused on the benefits and impact of AR in healthcare to appraise if they meet the founded quality criteria so as to identify relevant publications for an in-depth analysis of the economic impact assessment. The literature search was conducted using multiple databases such as PubMed, Cochrane, Science Direct and Nature. Inclusion criteria include research papers on AR implementation in healthcare, from education to diagnosis and treatment. Only papers written in English language were selected. Studies on AR prototypes were excluded. Although there were many articles that have addressed the benefits of AR in the healthcare industry in the area of medical education, treatment and diagnosis and dental medicine, there were very few publications that identified the specific economic impact of technology within the healthcare industry. There were 13 publications included in the analysis based on the inclusion criteria. Out of the 13 studies, none comprised a systematically comprehensive cost impact evaluation. An outline of the cost-effectiveness and cost-benefit framework was made based on an AR article from another industry as a reference. This systematic review found that while the advancements of AR technology is growing rapidly and industries are starting to adopt them into respective sectors, the technology and its advancements in healthcare were still in their early stages. There are still plenty of room for further advancements and integration of AR into different sectors within the healthcare industry. Future studies will require more comprehensive economic analyses and costing evaluations to enable economic decisions for or against implementing AR technology in healthcare. This systematic review concluded that the current literature lacked detailed examination and conduct of economic impact and benefit analyses. Recommendations for future research would be to include details of the initial investment and operational costs for the AR infrastructure in healthcare settings while comparing the intervention to its conventional counterparts or alternatives so as to provide a comprehensive comparison on impact, benefit and cost differences.

Keywords: augmented reality, benefit, economic impact, healthcare, patient care

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178 Causes of Non-Compliance With Public Procurement Act, 2007 Among Some Selected State Own Public Tertiary Education Institutions in Southwest, Nigeria

Authors: Ibitoye Olabode Clement

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The huge amount of grants for infrastructures development in Tertiary Institutions in Nigeria calls for transparency and accountability in the procurement process. However, questions have been raised concerning the judicious and appropriate use of the funds, and it was doubtful if the institutions complied with due process. This paper examined the causes of non-compliance with the Public Procurement Act (2007) in the procurement of Goods, Works, and Services through either direct or indirect processes of procurement, mostly in Tertiary Institutions of State government subvention institutions in Nigeria. Nigeria has over 120 public universities, polytechnics, and colleges of Education. This paper will take samples of some selected Institutions in southwest Nigeria. The institutions comprise 5 Universities, 5 Polytechnics, and 5 Colleges of Education / Health and Technology. The opinions of the institutions’ Procurement Officers on the tremendous investment through grants and interventions for infrastructure development in Tertiary Education Institutions (TEI) in Nigeria call for transparency and accountability in the procurement process. However, there are a lot of questions have been raised as to the judicious use of the funds, and it was doubtful if the institutions complied with due process. This study examined the causes of non-compliance with the Public Procurement Act (2007) in the procurement of Goods, Works, and Services in most State Government Public Institutions in Southwest Nigeria. Over, 120 public institutions comprising 5 Universities, 5 Polytechnics, and 5 Colleges of Education / Health and Technology were used for the study. The opinions of the institutions’ Procurement Officers on the causes of non-compliance with the Act in their procurement process were sought using a structured questionnaire. The results revealed that non-independent of Procurement Officers, non-compliance with the Act by some at the managerial level, claiming inadequate knowledge of the Act, non-employment of qualified and experienced Procurement officers, insufficient publicity of the Act, and non-existence of corporate governance led to poor management of procurement record and non-provision of incentive, Inability to separate the duties of Internal Auditors and Procurement Officers, Inability to translate procurement entity at large which makes nearly all at departmental level believe they procurement officers. Conclusively, on taking the Procurement Officers through interviewing having it that: the right educational and professional qualifications, understanding of the Act, sufficient cognate working experience, recruiting most professionals needed if not all, and occupying management position will enhance compliance. Hence, in addition, adopting an external empowered department from the Bureau should raise for monitoring the compliance mostly in State Government Tertiary Education Institution. Also, an organizational culture with a corporate governance structure that supports the engagement of the right and qualified personnel to handle procurement, encourages them to perform at their best and rewards excellent service by giving incentives, and operates within an administrative environment devoid of corruption.

Keywords: non compliance of procurement act, tertiary education institution, university, polytechnic and college of education/ health science and technology, Nigeria

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177 Forecasting Thermal Energy Demand in District Heating and Cooling Systems Using Long Short-Term Memory Neural Networks

Authors: Kostas Kouvaris, Anastasia Eleftheriou, Georgios A. Sarantitis, Apostolos Chondronasios

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To achieve the objective of almost zero carbon energy solutions by 2050, the EU needs to accelerate the development of integrated, highly efficient and environmentally friendly solutions. In this direction, district heating and cooling (DHC) emerges as a viable and more efficient alternative to conventional, decentralized heating and cooling systems, enabling a combination of more efficient renewable and competitive energy supplies. In this paper, we develop a forecasting tool for near real-time local weather and thermal energy demand predictions for an entire DHC network. In this fashion, we are able to extend the functionality and to improve the energy efficiency of the DHC network by predicting and adjusting the heat load that is distributed from the heat generation plant to the connected buildings by the heat pipe network. Two case-studies are considered; one for Vransko, Slovenia and one for Montpellier, France. The data consists of i) local weather data, such as humidity, temperature, and precipitation, ii) weather forecast data, such as the outdoor temperature and iii) DHC operational parameters, such as the mass flow rate, supply and return temperature. The external temperature is found to be the most important energy-related variable for space conditioning, and thus it is used as an external parameter for the energy demand models. For the development of the forecasting tool, we use state-of-the-art deep neural networks and more specifically, recurrent networks with long-short-term memory cells, which are able to capture complex non-linear relations among temporal variables. Firstly, we develop models to forecast outdoor temperatures for the next 24 hours using local weather data for each case-study. Subsequently, we develop models to forecast thermal demand for the same period, taking under consideration past energy demand values as well as the predicted temperature values from the weather forecasting models. The contributions to the scientific and industrial community are three-fold, and the empirical results are highly encouraging. First, we are able to predict future thermal demand levels for the two locations under consideration with minimal errors. Second, we examine the impact of the outdoor temperature on the predictive ability of the models and how the accuracy of the energy demand forecasts decreases with the forecast horizon. Third, we extend the relevant literature with a new dataset of thermal demand and examine the performance and applicability of machine learning techniques to solve real-world problems. Overall, the solution proposed in this paper is in accordance with EU targets, providing an automated smart energy management system, decreasing human errors and reducing excessive energy production.

Keywords: machine learning, LSTMs, district heating and cooling system, thermal demand

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176 Applying Innovation in FP Counselling: Results from A360 Amplify Matasan Matan Arewa Implementation of Counseling for Choice to Improve Contraceptive Adoption and Continuation among Married Adolescent Girls (15-19 years) in Northern Nigeria

Authors: Bulama Alhaji Alhassan, Roselyn Odeh, Rakiya Idris Labaran, Dorcas Yemi Danladi, Faith Ochonu

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Introduction: Contraceptive use has numerous health benefits such as preventing unplanned pregnancies thereby supporting women to achieve their life goals, maintaining the ideal amount of time between pregnancies, lowering the death rate for both mothers and children and generally enhancing the lives of women and children. Despite the numerous advantages of modern contraception and numerous initiatives by the government and development partners to promote its adoption, Nigeria's use of these methods has remained persistently low. Counseling about contraception is essential to providing high-quality treatment ensuring informed choice, and voluntarism for family planning is the key. The goal of the contraceptive counseling approach known as Counseling for Choice (C4C) is to ensure that people have the agency and voice to choose the contraceptive methods that best suit their requirements by altering the way both clients and providers engage in family planning counseling sessions. Aim: To evaluate the effect of counseling for choice on Modern Contraceptive adoption and continuation among married adolescent girls aged 15-19 years in 61 health facilities, within a 6-month period in Northern Nigeria. Methodology: Data from the NDHIS was obtained from selected facilities Pre & Post commencement of C4C intervention from 36 facilities Kaduna and 25 Nasarawa Matasan Matan Arewa (MMA) core implementation states putting into consideration the specific period of initiation of intervention, six months after deployment of the C4C, data was obtained from these facilities for post analysis. Data was analyzed on SPSS using paired sample t-test. Result: C4C resulted to improved access to FP services via increasing contraceptive adoption and continued used by 15% and 27% respectively (p<0.05) in Nasarawa state. While in Kaduna state we observed 11% and 28% improvement in adoption and continued use respectively as well with statistical significance (p<0.05) depicting that the increase is highly correlated (0.99 Nasarawa and 0.75 Kaduna) with the C4C intervention where the provider uses the NORMAL AND 3Ws Rubric to explain to the client in a simplified manner what to do with chosen method, what to expect with her method of adoption and when to return for a refill. Conclusion: In Northern Nigeria, it was observed that most clients discontinue their methods due to bleeding side effect and that was related to lack of appropriate and comprehensive information during counselling about what to expect with the clients method of adoption but with the intervention of the program, through capacity strengthening of PHC providers on counselling skills using the Counselling for Choice, it has helped to improve modern contraceptive uptake among young married women in northern Nigeria.

Keywords: continuation, counselling, uptake, adolescent, modern & implementation

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175 Geographic Origin Determination of Greek Rice (Oryza Sativa L.) Using Stable Isotopic Ratio Analysis

Authors: Anna-Akrivi Thomatou, Anastasios Zotos, Eleni C. Mazarakioti, Efthimios Kokkotos, Achilleas Kontogeorgos, Athanasios Ladavos, Angelos Patakas

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It is well known that accurate determination of geographic origin to confront mislabeling and adulteration of foods is considered as a critical issue worldwide not only for the consumers, but also for producers and industries. Among agricultural products, rice (Oryza sativa L.) is the world’s third largest crop, providing food for more than half of the world’s population. Consequently, the quality and safety of rice products play an important role in people’s life and health. Despite the fact that rice is predominantly produced in Asian countries, rice cultivation in Greece is of significant importance, contributing to national agricultural sector income. More than 25,000 acres are cultivated in Greece, while rice exports to other countries consist the 0,5% of the global rice trade. Although several techniques are available in order to provide information about the geographical origin of rice, little data exist regarding the ability of these methodologies to discriminate rice production from Greece. Thus, the aim of this study is the comparative evaluation of stable isotope ratio methodology regarding its discriminative ability for geographical origin determination of rice samples produced in Greece compared to those from three other Asian countries namely Korea, China and Philippines. In total eighty (80) samples were collected from selected fields of Central Macedonia (Greece), during October of 2021. The light element (C, N, S) isotope ratios were measured using Isotope Ratio Mass Spectrometry (IRMS) and the results obtained were analyzed using chemometric techniques, including principal components analysis (PCA). Results indicated that the 𝜹 15N and 𝜹 34S values of rice produced in Greece were more markedly influenced by geographical origin compared to the 𝜹 13C. In particular, 𝜹 34S values in rice originating from Greece was -1.98 ± 1.71 compared to 2.10 ± 1.87, 4.41 ± 0.88 and 9.02 ± 0.75 for Korea, China and Philippines respectively. Among stable isotope ratios studied, values of 𝜹 34S seem to be the more appropriate isotope marker to discriminate rice geographic origin between the studied areas. These results imply the significant capability of stable isotope ratio methodology for effective geographical origin discrimination of rice, providing a valuable insight into the control of improper or fraudulent labeling. Acknowledgement: This research has been financed by the Public Investment Programme/General Secretariat for Research and Innovation, under the call “YPOERGO 3, code 2018SE01300000: project title: ‘Elaboration and implementation of methodology for authenticity and geographical origin assessment of agricultural products.

Keywords: geographical origin, authenticity, rice, isotope ratio mass spectrometry

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174 Characterization of Alloyed Grey Cast Iron Quenched and Tempered for a Smooth Roll Application

Authors: Mohamed Habireche, Nacer E. Bacha, Mohamed Djeghdjough

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In the brick industry, smooth double roll crusher is used for medium and fine crushing of soft to medium hard material. Due to opposite inward rotation of the rolls, the feed material is nipped between the rolls and crushed by compression. They are subject to intense wear, known as three-body abrasion, due to the action of abrasive products. The production downtime affecting productivity stems from two sources: the bi-monthly rectification of the roll crushers and their replacement when they are completely worn out. Choosing the right material for the roll crushers should result in longer machine cycles, and reduced repair and maintenance costs. All roll crushers are imported from outside Algeria. This results in sometimes very long delivery times which handicap the brickyards, in particular in respecting delivery times and honored the orders made by customers. The aim of this work is to investigate the effect of alloying additions on microstructure and wear behavior of grey lamellar cast iron for smooth roll crushers in brick industry. The base gray iron was melted in an induction furnace with low frequency at a temperature of 1500 °C, in which return cast iron scrap, new cast iron ingot, and steel scrap were added to the melt to generate the desired composition. The chemical analysis of the bar samples was carried out using Emission Spectrometer Systems PV 8050 Series (Philips) except for the carbon, for which a carbon/sulphur analyser Elementrac CS-i was used. Unetched microstructure was used to evaluate the graphite flake morphology using the image comparison measurement method. At least five different fields were selected for quantitative estimation of phase constituents. The samples were observed under X100 magnification with a Zeiss Axiover T40 MAT optical microscope equipped with a digital camera. SEM microscope equipped with EDS was used to characterize the phases present in the microstructure. The hardness (750 kg load, 5mm diameter ball) was measured with a Brinell testing machine for both treated and as-solidified condition test pieces. The test bars were used for tensile strength and metallographic evaluations. Mechanical properties were evaluated using tensile specimens made as per ASTM E8 standards. Two specimens were tested for each alloy. From each rod, a test piece was made for the tensile test. The results showed that the quenched and tempered alloys had best wear resistance at 400 °C for alloyed grey cast iron (containing 0.62%Mn, 0.68%Cr, and 1.09% Cu) due to fine carbides in the tempered matrix. In quenched and tempered condition, increasing Cu content in cast irons improved its wear resistance moderately. Combined addition of Cu and Cr increases hardness and wear resistance for a quenched and tempered hypoeutectic grey cast iron.

Keywords: casting, cast iron, microstructure, heat treating

Procedia PDF Downloads 80
173 Corporate Life Cycle and Corporate Social Responsibility Performance: Empirical Evidence from Pharmaceutical Industry in China

Authors: Jing (Claire) LI

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The topic of corporate social responsibility (CSR) is significant for pharmaceutical companies in China at this current stage. This is because, as a rapid growth industry in China in recent years, the pharmaceutical industry in China has been undergone continuous and terrible incidents relating to CSR. However, there is limited research and practice of CSR in Chinese pharmaceutical companies. Also, there is an urgent call for more research in an international context to understand the implications of corporate life cycle on CSR performance. To respond to the research need and research call, this study examines the relationship between corporate life cycle and CSR performance of Chinese listed companies in pharmaceutical industry. This research studies Chinese listed companies in pharmaceutical industry for the period of 2010-2017, where the data is available in database. Following the literature, this study divides CSR performance with regards to CSR dimensions, including shareholders, creditors, employees, customers, suppliers, the government, and the society. This study uses CSR scores of HEXUN database and financial measures of these CSR dimensions to measure the CSR performance. This study performed regression analysis to examine the relationship between corporate life cycle stages and CSR performance with regards to CSR dimensions for pharmaceutical listed companies in China. Using cash flow pattern as proxy of corporate life cycle to classify corporate life cycle stages, this study found that most (least) pharmaceutical companies in China are in maturity (decline) stage. This study found that CSR performance for most dimensions are highest (lowest) in maturity (decline) stage as well. Among these CSR dimensions, performing responsibilities for shareholder is the most important among all CSR responsibilities for pharmaceutical companies. This study is the first to provide important empirical evidence from Chinese pharmaceutical industry on the association between life cycle and CSR performance, supporting that corporate life cycle is a key factor in CSR performance. The study expands corporate life cycle and CSR literatures and has both empirical and theoretical contributions to the literature. From perspective of empirical contributions, the findings contribute to the argument that whether there is a relationship between CSR performance and various corporate life cycle stages in the literature. This study also provides empirical evidence that companies in different corporate life cycles have difference in CSR performance. From perspective of theoretical contributions, this study relates CSR and stakeholders to corporate life cycle stages and complements the corporate life cycle and CSR literature. This study has important implications for managers and policy makers. First, the results will be helpful for managers to have an understanding in the essence of CSR, and their company’s current and future CSR focus over corporate life cycle. This study provides a reference for their actions and may help them make more wise resources allocation decisions of CSR investment. Second, policy makers (in the government, stock exchanges, and securities commission) may consider corporate life cycle as an important factor in formulating future regulations for companies. Future research can explore the "process-based" differences in CSR performance and more industries.

Keywords: China, corporate life cycle, corporate social responsibility, pharmaceutical industry

Procedia PDF Downloads 80
172 Solid State Drive End to End Reliability Prediction, Characterization and Control

Authors: Mohd Azman Abdul Latif, Erwan Basiron

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A flaw or drift from expected operational performance in one component (NAND, PMIC, controller, DRAM, etc.) may affect the reliability of the entire Solid State Drive (SSD) system. Therefore, it is important to ensure the required quality of each individual component through qualification testing specified using standards or user requirements. Qualification testing is time-consuming and comes at a substantial cost for product manufacturers. A highly technical team, from all the eminent stakeholders is embarking on reliability prediction from beginning of new product development, identify critical to reliability parameters, perform full-blown characterization to embed margin into product reliability and establish control to ensure the product reliability is sustainable in the mass production. The paper will discuss a comprehensive development framework, comprehending SSD end to end from design to assembly, in-line inspection, in-line testing and will be able to predict and to validate the product reliability at the early stage of new product development. During the design stage, the SSD will go through intense reliability margin investigation with focus on assembly process attributes, process equipment control, in-process metrology and also comprehending forward looking product roadmap. Once these pillars are completed, the next step is to perform process characterization and build up reliability prediction modeling. Next, for the design validation process, the reliability prediction specifically solder joint simulator will be established. The SSD will be stratified into Non-Operating and Operating tests with focus on solder joint reliability and connectivity/component latent failures by prevention through design intervention and containment through Temperature Cycle Test (TCT). Some of the SSDs will be subjected to the physical solder joint analysis called Dye and Pry (DP) and Cross Section analysis. The result will be feedbacked to the simulation team for any corrective actions required to further improve the design. Once the SSD is validated and is proven working, it will be subjected to implementation of the monitor phase whereby Design for Assembly (DFA) rules will be updated. At this stage, the design change, process and equipment parameters are in control. Predictable product reliability at early product development will enable on-time sample qualification delivery to customer and will optimize product development validation, effective development resource and will avoid forced late investment to bandage the end-of-life product failures. Understanding the critical to reliability parameters earlier will allow focus on increasing the product margin that will increase customer confidence to product reliability.

Keywords: e2e reliability prediction, SSD, TCT, solder joint reliability, NUDD, connectivity issues, qualifications, characterization and control

Procedia PDF Downloads 147
171 Economic Decision Making under Cognitive Load: The Role of Numeracy and Financial Literacy

Authors: Vânia Costa, Nuno De Sá Teixeira, Ana C. Santos, Eduardo Santos

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Financial literacy and numeracy have been regarded as paramount for rational household decision making in the increasing complexity of financial markets. However, financial decisions are often made under sub-optimal circumstances, including cognitive overload. The present study aims to clarify how financial literacy and numeracy, taken as relevant expert knowledge for financial decision-making, modulate possible effects of cognitive load. Participants were required to perform a choice between a sure loss or a gambling pertaining a financial investment, either with or without a competing memory task. Two experiments were conducted varying only the content of the competing task. In the first, the financial choice task was made while maintaining on working memory a list of five random letters. In the second, cognitive load was based upon the retention of six random digits. In both experiments, one of the items in the list had to be recalled given its serial position. Outcomes of the first experiment revealed no significant main effect or interactions involving cognitive load manipulation and numeracy and financial literacy skills, strongly suggesting that retaining a list of random letters did not interfere with the cognitive abilities required for financial decision making. Conversely, and in the second experiment, a significant interaction between the competing mnesic task and level of financial literacy (but not numeracy) was found for the frequency of choice of a gambling option. Overall, and in the control condition, both participants with high financial literacy and high numeracy were more prone to choose the gambling option. However, and when under cognitive load, participants with high financial literacy were as likely as their illiterate counterparts to choose the gambling option. This outcome is interpreted as evidence that financial literacy prevents intuitive risk-aversion reasoning only under highly favourable conditions, as is the case when no other task is competing for cognitive resources. In contrast, participants with higher levels of numeracy were consistently more prone to choose the gambling option in both experimental conditions. These results are discussed in the light of the opposition between classical dual-process theories and fuzzy-trace theories for intuitive decision making, suggesting that while some instances of expertise (as numeracy) are prone to support easily accessible gist representations, other expert skills (as financial literacy) depend upon deliberative processes. It is furthermore suggested that this dissociation between types of expert knowledge might depend on the degree to which they are generalizable across disparate settings. Finally, applied implications of the present study are discussed with a focus on how it informs financial regulators and the importance and limits of promoting financial literacy and general numeracy.

Keywords: decision making, cognitive load, financial literacy, numeracy

Procedia PDF Downloads 150
170 Melancholia, Nostalgia: Bernardo Soares after Fernando Pessoa

Authors: Maria de Fátima Lambert

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Bernardo Soares is one of Fernando Pessoa' several heteronyms (and "half-heteronyms"). Perhaps the one that brought together the majority of his qualities and characters of self-identity within the famous inner-persona-alter-diversity. The Book of Disquiet by Bernardo Soares was released in 1983, consisting of ontological remarks caught by an obsessive inquiring about self-existence. The book became a highly valuable substance when focusing upon the philosophical grounds of Pessoa's aesthetics. For sure, we cannot consider a single aesthetic, admitting that each heteronym has its own particular one, developed after different principles and convictions. Regarding Bernardo Soares, his thought arises from sequenced self-clues expressing peculiar existential doubtless presented as certainties -and vice-versa. His written self-search-images are reported, molding the painful awareness of existence through the discredited tolerance of any conclusive dialogue with others. Given the nature of Soares’ [maybe] unfinished writings, it is obvious that he headed far from his self-insurance-capsule: the office, bedroom, or even the walkscapes through Lisbon. The idea of travel/journey is one of the most relevant when recognizing his profound - although undercover - anguish as melancholy and nostalgia. In Bernardo Soares, Aesthetics is taken agonizingly, grounded upon discreet poetic phraseology and terms. His poetical awareness developed compulsive titles such "Aesthetics of Indifference", "Aesthetics of Discouragement". Soares' Aesthetics emerges directly from oneself, understanding art as inner acts and living experienced issues. Art is not freed from the intellectual expression of oneself emotions. The Disquiet Book is an existential nightmare nourished by everyday life, single written thoughts, balanced by melancholia, nostalgia, and distress. One might wonder if it was dreams that guided his fictional literary persona or the narrow facts of life itself. Along with his endless disquiet writing, Pessoa’s semi-heteronymous traveled without physically going anywhere. The complexity of inner existence is fulfilled by lonely mental walks and travels, as in two texts titled The Never Accomplished Journey. Although we also can consider other fragments, these are the deepest reflections about travelling. Let’s recall that Fernando Pessoa’s ortonyms writings -poems and essays- also addressed this issue from a philosophical perspective. We believe that this theme is one of the meaningful concepts for featuring the main principles of his aesthetics. As we know, Fernando Pessoa did not travel to foreign countries (or in Portugal), except for the journey, with his family, from Lisbon to South Africa (as a child) and, some years later, the return back to Lisbon. One may wonder why the poet never undertook other journeys. Maybe due to a disbelief in moving away from his comfort zone or due to the fear of becoming addicted to endless travels and the loss of his convenient self-closeness. In The Book of Disquiet, the poet shared his internal visions of the outer world but mainly visualizing his deepest enigmas and experiences -so strongly incorporated into reality and fiction.

Keywords: aesthetic principles, Bernardo Soares, Fernando Pessoa , melancholia, nostalgia, non-accomplished travel, The Book of Disquiet

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169 Planning a European Policy for Increasing Graduate Population: The Conditions That Count

Authors: Alice Civera, Mattia Cattaneo, Michele Meoli, Stefano Paleari

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Despite the fact that more equal access to higher education has been an objective public policy for several decades, little is known about the effectiveness of alternative means for achieving such goal. Indeed, nowadays, high level of graduate population can be observed both in countries with the high and low level of fees, or high and low level of public expenditure in higher education. This paper surveys the extant literature providing some background on the economic concepts of the higher education market, and reviews key determinants of demand and supply. A theoretical model of aggregate demand and supply of higher education is derived, with the aim to facilitate the understanding of the challenges in today’s higher education systems, as well as the opportunities for development. The model is validated on some exemplary case studies describing the different relationship between the level of public investment and levels of graduate population and helps to derive general implications. In addition, using a two-stage least squares model, we build a macroeconomic model of supply and demand for European higher education. The model allows interpreting policies shifting either the supply or the demand for higher education, and allows taking into consideration contextual conditions with the aim of comparing divergent policies under a common framework. Results show that the same policy objective (i.e., increasing graduate population) can be obtained by shifting either the demand function (i.e., by strengthening student aid) or the supply function (i.e., by directly supporting higher education institutions). Under this theoretical perspective, the level of tuition fees is irrelevant, and empirically we can observe high levels of graduate population in both countries with high (i.e., the UK) or low (i.e., Germany) levels of tuition fees. In practice, this model provides a conceptual framework to help better understanding what are the external conditions that need to be considered, when planning a policy for increasing graduate population. Extrapolating a policy from results in different countries, under this perspective, is a poor solution when contingent factors are not addressed. The second implication of this conceptual framework is that policies addressing the supply or the demand function needs to address different contingencies. In other words, a government aiming at increasing graduate population needs to implement complementary policies, designing them according to the side of the market that is interested. For example, a ‘supply-driven’ intervention, through the direct financial support of higher education institutions, needs to address the issue of institutions’ moral hazard, by creating incentives to supply higher education services in efficient conditions. By contrast, a ‘demand-driven’ policy, providing student aids, need to tackle the students’ moral hazard, by creating an incentive to responsible behavior.

Keywords: graduates, higher education, higher education policies, tuition fees

Procedia PDF Downloads 135
168 Mesalazine-Induced Myopericarditis in a Professional Athlete

Authors: Tristan R. Fraser, Christopher D. Steadman, Christopher J. Boos

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Myopericarditis is an inflammation syndrome characterised by clinical diagnostic criteria for pericarditis, such as chest pain, combined with evidence of myocardial involvement, such as elevation of biomarkers of myocardial damage, e.g., troponins. It can rarely be a complication of therapeutics used for dysregulated immune-mediated diseases such as inflammatory bowel disease (IBD), for example, mesalazine. The infrequency of mesalazine-induced myopericarditis adds to the challenge in its recognition. Rapid diagnosis and the early introduction of treatment are crucial. This case report follows a 24-year-old professional footballer with a past medical history of ulcerative colitis, recently started on mesalazine for disease control. Three weeks after mesalazine was initiated, he was admitted with fever, shortness of breath, and chest pain worse whilst supine and on deep inspiration, as well as elevated venous blood cardiac troponin T level (cTnT, 288ng/L; normal: <13ng/L). Myocarditis was confirmed on initial inpatient cardiac MRI, revealing the presence of florid myocarditis with preserved left ventricular systolic function and an ejection fraction of 67%. This was a longitudinal case study following the progress of a single individual with myopericarditis over four acute hospital admissions over nine weeks, with admissions ranging from two to five days. Parameters examined included clinical signs and symptoms, serum troponin, transthoracic echocardiogram, and cardiac MRI. Serial measurements of cardiac function, including cardiac MRI and transthoracic echocardiogram, showed progressive deterioration of cardiac function whilst mesalazine was continued. Prior to cessation of mesalazine, transthoracic echocardiography revealed a small global pericardial effusion of < 1cm and worsening left ventricular systolic function with an ejection fraction of 45%. After recognition of mesalazine as a potential cause and consequent cessation of the drug, symptoms resolved, with cardiac MRI performed as an outpatient showing resolution of myocardial oedema. The patient plans to make a return to competitive sport. Patients suffering from myopericarditis are advised to refrain from competitive sport for at least six months in order to reduce the risk of cardiac remodelling and sudden cardiac death. Additional considerations must be taken in individuals for whom competitive sport is an essential component of their livelihood, such as professional athletes. Myopericarditis is an uncommon, however potentially serious medical condition with a wide variety of aetiologies, including viral, autoimmune, and drug-related causes. Management is mainly supportive and relies on prompt recognition and removal of the aetiological process. Mesalazine-induced myopericarditis is a rare condition; as such increasing awareness of mesalazine as a precipitant of myopericarditis is vital for optimising the management of these patients.

Keywords: myopericarditis, mesalazine, inflammatory bowel disease, professional athlete

Procedia PDF Downloads 111
167 Evotrader: Bitcoin Trading Using Evolutionary Algorithms on Technical Analysis and Social Sentiment Data

Authors: Martin Pellon Consunji

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Due to the rise in popularity of Bitcoin and other crypto assets as a store of wealth and speculative investment, there is an ever-growing demand for automated trading tools, such as bots, in order to gain an advantage over the market. Traditionally, trading in the stock market was done by professionals with years of training who understood patterns and exploited market opportunities in order to gain a profit. However, nowadays a larger portion of market participants are at minimum aided by market-data processing bots, which can generally generate more stable signals than the average human trader. The rise in trading bot usage can be accredited to the inherent advantages that bots have over humans in terms of processing large amounts of data, lack of emotions of fear or greed, and predicting market prices using past data and artificial intelligence, hence a growing number of approaches have been brought forward to tackle this task. However, the general limitation of these approaches can still be broken down to the fact that limited historical data doesn’t always determine the future, and that a lot of market participants are still human emotion-driven traders. Moreover, developing markets such as those of the cryptocurrency space have even less historical data to interpret than most other well-established markets. Due to this, some human traders have gone back to the tried-and-tested traditional technical analysis tools for exploiting market patterns and simplifying the broader spectrum of data that is involved in making market predictions. This paper proposes a method which uses neuro evolution techniques on both sentimental data and, the more traditionally human-consumed, technical analysis data in order to gain a more accurate forecast of future market behavior and account for the way both automated bots and human traders affect the market prices of Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies. This study’s approach uses evolutionary algorithms to automatically develop increasingly improved populations of bots which, by using the latest inflows of market analysis and sentimental data, evolve to efficiently predict future market price movements. The effectiveness of the approach is validated by testing the system in a simulated historical trading scenario, a real Bitcoin market live trading scenario, and testing its robustness in other cryptocurrency and stock market scenarios. Experimental results during a 30-day period show that this method outperformed the buy and hold strategy by over 260% in terms of net profits, even when taking into consideration standard trading fees.

Keywords: neuro-evolution, Bitcoin, trading bots, artificial neural networks, technical analysis, evolutionary algorithms

Procedia PDF Downloads 94
166 Economic Impacts of Nitrogen Fertilizer Use into Tropical Pastures for Beef Cattle in Brazil

Authors: Elieder P. Romanzini, Lutti M. Delevatti, Rhaony G. Leite, Ricardo A. Reis, Euclides B. Malheiros

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Brazilian beef cattle production systems are an important profitability source for the national gross domestic product. The main characteristic of these systems is forage utilization as the exclusive feed source. Forage utilization had been causing on owners the false feeling of low production costs. However, this low cost is followed to low profit causing a lot times worst animal index what can result in activities changes or until land sold. Aiming to evaluate economic impacts into Brazilian beef cattle systems were evaluated four nitrogen fertilizer (N) application levels (0, 90, 180 and 270 kg per hectare [kg.ha-1]). Research was developed during 2015 into Forage Crops and Grasslands section of São Paulo State University, “Júlio de Mesquita Filho” (Unesp) (Jaboticabal, São Paulo, Brazil). Pastures were seeded with Brachiaria brizantha Stapf. ‘Marandu’ (Palisade grass) handled using continuous grazing system, with variable stocking rate, sward height maintained at 25 cm. The economic evaluation was developed in rearing e finishing phases. We evaluated the cash flows inside each phase on different N levels. Economic valuations were considering: cost-effective operating (CEO), cost-total operating (CTO), gross revenue (GR), operating profit (OP) and net income (NI), every measured in US$. Complementary analyses were developed, profitability was calculated by [OP/GR]. Pay back (measured in years) was calculated considering average capital stocktaking pondered by area in use (ACS) divided by [GR-CEO]. And the internal rate of return (IRR) was calculated by 100/(pay back). Input prices were prices during 2015 and were obtained from Anuário Brasileiro da Pecuária, Centro de Estudos Avançados em Economia Aplicada and quotation in the same region of animal production (northeast São Paulo State) during the period above mentioned. Values were calculated in US$ according exchange rate US$1.00 equal R$3.34. The CEO, CTO, GR, OP and NI per hectare for each N level were respectively US$1,919.66; US$2,048.47; US$2,905.72; US$857.25 and US$986.06 to 0 kg.ha-1; US$2,403.20; US$2,551.80; US$3,530.19; US$978.39 and US$1,126.99 to 90 kg.ha-1; US$3,180.42; US$3,364.81; US$4,985.03; US$1,620.23 and US$1,804.62 to 180 kg.ha-1andUS$3,709.14; US$3,915.15; US$5,554.95; US$1,639.80 and US$1,845.81 to 270 kg.ha-1. Relationship to another economic indexes, profitability, pay back and IRR, the results were respectively 29.50%, 6.44 and 15.54% to 0 kg.ha-1; 27.72%, 6.88 and 14.54% to 90 kg.ha-1; 32.50%, 4.08 and 24.50% to 180 kg.ha-1 and 29.52%, 3.42 and 29.27% to 270 kg.ha-1. Values previously presented in this evaluation allowing to affirm that the best result was obtained to N level 270 kg.ha-1. These results among all N levels evaluated could be explained by improve occurred on stocking rate caused by increase on N level. However, a crucial information about high N level application into pastures is the efficiency of N utilization (associated to environmental impacts) that normally decrease with the increase on N level. Hence, considering all situations (efficiency of N utilization and economic results) into tropical pastures used to beef cattle production could be recommended N level equal to 180kg.ha-1, which had better profitability and cause lesser environmental impacts, proved by other studies developed in the same area.

Keywords: Brachiaria brizantha, cost-total operating, gross revenue, profitability

Procedia PDF Downloads 142
165 The Efficiency Analysis in the Health Sector: Marmara Region

Authors: Hale Kirer Silva Lecuna, Beyza Aydin

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Health is one of the main components of human capital and sustainable development, and it is very important for economic growth. Health economics, which is an indisputable part of the science of economics, has five stages in general. These are health and development, financing of health services, economic regulation in the health, allocation of resources and efficiency of health services. A well-developed and efficient health sector plays a major role by increasing the level of development of countries. The most crucial pillars of the health sector are the hospitals that are divided into public and private. The main purpose of the hospitals is to provide more efficient services. Therefore the aim is to meet patients’ satisfaction by increasing the service quality. Health-related studies in Turkey date back to the Ottoman and Seljuk Empires. In the near past, Turkey applied 'Health Sector Transformation Programs' under different titles between 2003 and 2010. Our aim in this paper is to measure how effective these transformation programs are for the health sector, to see how much they can increase the efficiency of hospitals over the years, to see the return of investments, to make comments and suggestions on the results, and to provide a new reference for the literature. Within this framework, the public and private hospitals in Balıkesir, Bilecik, Bursa, Çanakkale, Edirne, Istanbul, Kirklareli, Kocaeli, Sakarya, Tekirdağ, Yalova will be examined by using Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) for the years between 2000 and 2019. DEA is a linear programming-based technique, which gives relatively good results in multivariate studies. DEA basically estimates an efficiency frontier and make a comparison. Constant returns to scale and variable returns to scale are two most commonly used DEA methods. Both models are divided into two as input and output-oriented. To analyze the data, the number of personnel, number of specialist physicians, number of practitioners, number of beds, number of examinations will be used as input variables; and the number of surgeries, in-patient ratio, and crude mortality rate as output variables. 11 hospitals belonging to the Marmara region were included in the study. It is seen that these hospitals worked effectively only in 7 provinces (Balıkesir, Bilecik, Bursa, Edirne, İstanbul, Kırklareli, Yalova) for the year 2001 when no transformation program was implemented. After the transformation program was implemented, for example, in 2014 and 2016, 10 hospitals (Balıkesir, Bilecik, Bursa, Çanakkale, Edirne, İstanbul, Kocaeli, Kırklareli, Tekirdağ, Yalova) were found to be effective. In 2015, ineffective results were observed for Sakarya, Tekirdağ and Yalova. However, since these values are closer to 1 after the transformation program, we can say that the transformation program has positive effects. For Sakarya alone, no effective results have been achieved in any year. When we look at the results in general, it shows that the transformation program has a positive effect on the effectiveness of hospitals.

Keywords: data envelopment analysis, efficiency, health sector, Marmara region

Procedia PDF Downloads 107
164 Investigating the Feasibility of Berry Production in Central Oregon under Protected and Unprotected Culture

Authors: Clare S. Sullivan

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The high desert of central Oregon, USA is a challenging growing environment: short growing season (70-100 days); average annual precipitation of 280 mm; drastic swings in diurnal temperatures; possibility of frost any time of year; and sandy soils low in organic matter. Despite strong demand, there is almost no fruit grown in central Oregon due to potential yield loss caused by early and late frosts. Elsewhere in the USA, protected culture (i.e., high tunnels) has been used to extend fruit production seasons and improve yields. In central Oregon, high tunnels are used to grow multiple high-value vegetable crops, and farmers are unlikely to plant a perennial crop in a high tunnel unless proven profitable. In May 2019, two berry trials were established on a farm in Alfalfa, OR, to evaluate raspberry and strawberry yield, season length, and fruit quality in protected (high tunnels) vs. unprotected culture (open field). The main objective was to determine whether high tunnel berry production is a viable enterprise for the region. Each trial was arranged using a split-plot design. The main factor was the production system (high tunnel vs. open field), and the replicated, subplot factor was berry variety. Four day-neutral strawberry varieties and four primocane-bearing raspberry varieties were planted for the study and were managed using organic practices. Berries were harvested once a week early in the season, and twice a week as production increased. Harvested berries were separated into ‘marketable’ and ‘unmarketable’ in order to calculate percent cull. First-year results revealed berry yield and quality differences between varieties and production systems. Strawberry marketable yield and berry fruit size increased significantly in the high tunnel compared to the field; percent yield increase ranged from 7-46% by variety. Evie 2 was the highest yielding strawberry, although berry quality was lower than other berries. Raspberry marketable yield and berry fruit size tended to increase in the high tunnel compared to the field, although variety had a more significant effect. Joan J was the highest yielding raspberry and out-yielded the other varieties by 250% outdoor and 350% indoor. Overall, strawberry and raspberry yields tended to improve in high tunnels as compared to the field, but data from a second year will help determine whether high tunnel investment is worthwhile. It is expected that the production system will have more of an effect on berry yield and season length for second-year plants in 2020.

Keywords: berries, high tunnel, local food, organic

Procedia PDF Downloads 85
163 Structure Conduct and Performance of Rice Milling Industry in Sri Lanka

Authors: W. A. Nalaka Wijesooriya

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The increasing paddy production, stabilization of domestic rice consumption and the increasing dynamism of rice processing and domestic markets call for a rethinking of the general direction of the rice milling industry in Sri Lanka. The main purpose of the study was to explore levels of concentration in rice milling industry in Polonnaruwa and Hambanthota which are the major hubs of the country for rice milling. Concentration indices reveal that the rice milling industry in Polonnaruwa operates weak oligopsony and is highly competitive in Hambanthota. According to the actual quantity of paddy milling per day, 47 % is less than 8Mt/Day, while 34 % is 8-20 Mt/day, and the rest (19%) is greater than 20 Mt/day. In Hambanthota, nearly 50% of the mills belong to the range of 8-20 Mt/day. Lack of experience of the milling industry, poor knowledge on milling technology, lack of capital and finding an output market are the major entry barriers to the industry. Major problems faced by all the rice millers are the lack of a uniform electricity supply and low quality paddy. Many of the millers emphasized that the rice ceiling price is a constraint to produce quality rice. More than 80% of the millers in Polonnaruwa which is the major parboiling rice producing area have mechanical dryers. Nearly 22% millers have modern machineries like color sorters, water jet polishers. Major paddy purchasing method of large scale millers in Polonnaruwa is through brokers. In Hambanthota major channel is miller purchasing from paddy farmers. Millers in both districts have major rice selling markets in Colombo and suburbs. Huge variation can be observed in the amount of pledge (for paddy storage) loans. There is a strong relationship among the storage ability, credit affordability and the scale of operation of rice millers. The inter annual price fluctuation ranged 30%-35%. Analysis of market margins by using series of secondary data shows that farmers’ share on rice consumer price is stable or slightly increases in both districts. In Hambanthota a greater share goes to the farmer. Only four mills which have obtained the Good Manufacturing Practices (GMP) certification from Sri Lanka Standards Institution can be found. All those millers are small quantity rice exporters. Priority should be given for the Small and medium scale millers in distribution of storage paddy of PMB during the off season. The industry needs a proper rice grading system, and it is recommended to introduce a ceiling price based on graded rice according to the standards. Both husk and rice bran were underutilized. Encouraging investment for establishing rice oil manufacturing plant in Polonnaruwa area is highly recommended. The current taxation procedure needs to be restructured in order to ensure the sustainability of the industry.

Keywords: conduct, performance, structure (SCP), rice millers

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162 Cloud Based Supply Chain Traceability

Authors: Kedar J. Mahadeshwar

Abstract:

Concept introduction: This paper talks about how an innovative cloud based analytics enabled solution that could address a major industry challenge that is approaching all of us globally faster than what one would think. The world of supply chain for drugs and devices is changing today at a rapid speed. In the US, the Drug Supply Chain Security Act (DSCSA) is a new law for Tracing, Verification and Serialization phasing in starting Jan 1, 2015 for manufacturers, repackagers, wholesalers and pharmacies / clinics. Similarly we are seeing pressures building up in Europe, China and many countries that would require an absolute traceability of every drug and device end to end. Companies (both manufacturers and distributors) can use this opportunity not only to be compliant but to differentiate themselves over competition. And moreover a country such as UAE can be the leader in coming up with a global solution that brings innovation in this industry. Problem definition and timing: The problem of counterfeit drug market, recognized by FDA, causes billions of dollars loss every year. Even in UAE, the concerns over prevalence of counterfeit drugs, which enter through ports such as Dubai remains a big concern, as per UAE pharma and healthcare report, Q1 2015. Distribution of drugs and devices involves multiple processes and systems that do not talk to each other. Consumer confidence is at risk due to this lack of traceability and any leading provider is at risk of losing its reputation. Globally there is an increasing pressure by government and regulatory bodies to trace serial numbers and lot numbers of every drug and medical devices throughout a supply chain. Though many of large corporations use some form of ERP (enterprise resource planning) software, it is far from having a capability to trace a lot and serial number beyond the enterprise and making this information easily available real time. Solution: The solution here talks about a service provider that allows all subscribers to take advantage of this service. The solution allows a service provider regardless of its physical location, to host this cloud based traceability and analytics solution of millions of distribution transactions that capture lots of each drug and device. The solution platform will capture a movement of every medical device and drug end to end from its manufacturer to a hospital or a doctor through a series of distributor or retail network. The platform also provides advanced analytics solution to do some intelligent reporting online. Why Dubai? Opportunity exists with huge investment done in Dubai healthcare city also with using technology and infrastructure to attract more FDI to provide such a service. UAE and countries similar will be facing this pressure from regulators globally in near future. But more interestingly, Dubai can attract such innovators/companies to run and host such a cloud based solution and become a hub of such traceability globally.

Keywords: cloud, pharmaceutical, supply chain, tracking

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161 A Case of Borderline Personality Disorder: An Explanatory Study of Unconscious Conflicts through Dream-Analysis

Authors: Mariam Anwaar, Kiran B. Ahmad

Abstract:

Borderline Personality Disorder (BPD) is an invasive presence of affect instability, disturbance in self-concept and attachment in relationships. The profound indicator is the dichotomous approach of the world in which the ego categorizes individuals, especially their significant others, into secure or threatful beings, leaving little room for a complex combination of characteristics in one person. This defense mechanism of splitting their world has been described through the explanatory model of unconscious conflict theorized by Sigmund Freud’s Electra Complex in the Phallic Stage. The central role is of the father with whom the daughter experiences penis envy, thus identifying with the mother’s characteristics to receive the father’s attention. However, Margret Mahler, an object relation theorist, elucidates the central role of the mother and that the split occurs during the pre-Electra complex stage. Amid the 14 and 24 months of the infant, it acknowledges the world away from the mother as they have developed milestones such as crawling. In such novelty, the infant crawls away from the mother creating a sense of independence (individuation). On the other hand, being distant causes anxiety, making them return to their original object of security (separation). In BPD, the separation-individuation stage is disrupted, due to contradictory actions of the caregiver, which results in splitting the object into negative and positive aspects, repressing the former and adhering to the latter for survival. Thus, with time, the ego distorts the reality into dichotomous categories, using the splitting defenses, and the mental representation of the self is distorted due to the internalization of the negative objects. The explanatory model was recognized in the case study of Fizza, at 21-year-old Pakistani female, residing in Karachi. Her marital status is single with an occupation being a dental student. Fizza lives in a nuclear family but is surrounded by her extended family as they all are in close vicinity. She came with the complaints of depressive symptoms for two-years along with self-harm due to severe family conflicts. Through the intervention of Dialectical Behavior Therapy (DBT), the self-harming actions were reduced, however, this libidinal energy transformed into claustrophobic symptoms and, along with this, Fizza has always experienced vivid dreams. A retrospective method of Jungian dream-analysis was applied to locate the origins of the splitting in the unconscious. The result was the revelation of a sexual harassment trauma at the age of six-years which was displaced in the form of self-harm. In addition to this, the presence of a conflict at the separation-individuation stage was detected during the dream-analysis, and it was the underlying explanation of the claustrophobic symptoms. This qualitative case study implicates the use of a patient’s subjective experiences, such as dreams, to journey through the spiral of the unconscious in order to not only detect repressed memories but to use them in psychotherapy as a means of healing the patient.

Keywords: borderline personality disorder, dream-analysis, Electra complex, separation-individuation, splitting, unconscious

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160 Addressing Supply Chain Data Risk with Data Security Assurance

Authors: Anna Fowler

Abstract:

When considering assets that may need protection, the mind begins to contemplate homes, cars, and investment funds. In most cases, the protection of those assets can be covered through security systems and insurance. Data is not the first thought that comes to mind that would need protection, even though data is at the core of most supply chain operations. It includes trade secrets, management of personal identifiable information (PII), and consumer data that can be used to enhance the overall experience. Data is considered a critical element of success for supply chains and should be one of the most critical areas to protect. In the supply chain industry, there are two major misconceptions about protecting data: (i) We do not manage or store confidential/personally identifiable information (PII). (ii) Reliance on Third-Party vendor security. These misconceptions can significantly derail organizational efforts to adequately protect data across environments. These statistics can be exciting yet overwhelming at the same time. The first misconception, “We do not manage or store confidential/personally identifiable information (PII)” is dangerous as it implies the organization does not have proper data literacy. Enterprise employees will zero in on the aspect of PII while neglecting trade secret theft and the complete breakdown of information sharing. To circumvent the first bullet point, the second bullet point forges an ideology that “Reliance on Third-Party vendor security” will absolve the company from security risk. Instead, third-party risk has grown over the last two years and is one of the major causes of data security breaches. It is important to understand that a holistic approach should be considered when protecting data which should not involve purchasing a Data Loss Prevention (DLP) tool. A tool is not a solution. To protect supply chain data, start by providing data literacy training to all employees and negotiating the security component of contracts with vendors to highlight data literacy training for individuals/teams that may access company data. It is also important to understand the origin of the data and its movement to include risk identification. Ensure processes effectively incorporate data security principles. Evaluate and select DLP solutions to address specific concerns/use cases in conjunction with data visibility. These approaches are part of a broader solutions framework called Data Security Assurance (DSA). The DSA Framework looks at all of the processes across the supply chain, including their corresponding architecture and workflows, employee data literacy, governance and controls, integration between third and fourth-party vendors, DLP as a solution concept, and policies related to data residency. Within cloud environments, this framework is crucial for the supply chain industry to avoid regulatory implications and third/fourth party risk.

Keywords: security by design, data security architecture, cybersecurity framework, data security assurance

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159 Design and Integration of an Energy Harvesting Vibration Absorber for Rotating System

Authors: F. Infante, W. Kaal, S. Perfetto, S. Herold

Abstract:

In the last decade the demand of wireless sensors and low-power electric devices for condition monitoring in mechanical structures has been strongly increased. Networks of wireless sensors can potentially be applied in a huge variety of applications. Due to the reduction of both size and power consumption of the electric components and the increasing complexity of mechanical systems, the interest of creating dense nodes sensor networks has become very salient. Nevertheless, with the development of large sensor networks with numerous nodes, the critical problem of powering them is drawing more and more attention. Batteries are not a valid alternative for consideration regarding lifetime, size and effort in replacing them. Between possible alternative solutions for durable power sources useable in mechanical components, vibrations represent a suitable source for the amount of power required to feed a wireless sensor network. For this purpose, energy harvesting from structural vibrations has received much attention in the past few years. Suitable vibrations can be found in numerous mechanical environments including automotive moving structures, household applications, but also civil engineering structures like buildings and bridges. Similarly, a dynamic vibration absorber (DVA) is one of the most used devices to mitigate unwanted vibration of structures. This device is used to transfer the primary structural vibration to the auxiliary system. Thus, the related energy is effectively localized in the secondary less sensitive structure. Then, the additional benefit of harvesting part of the energy can be obtained by implementing dedicated components. This paper describes the design process of an energy harvesting tuned vibration absorber (EHTVA) for rotating systems using piezoelectric elements. The energy of the vibration is converted into electricity rather than dissipated. The device proposed is indeed designed to mitigate torsional vibrations as with a conventional rotational TVA, while harvesting energy as a power source for immediate use or storage. The resultant rotational multi degree of freedom (MDOF) system is initially reduced in an equivalent single degree of freedom (SDOF) system. The Den Hartog’s theory is used for evaluating the optimal mechanical parameters of the initial DVA for the SDOF systems defined. The performance of the TVA is operationally assessed and the vibration reduction at the original resonance frequency is measured. Then, the design is modified for the integration of active piezoelectric patches without detuning the TVA. In order to estimate the real power generated, a complex storage circuit is implemented. A DC-DC step-down converter is connected to the device through a rectifier to return a fixed output voltage. Introducing a big capacitor, the energy stored is measured at different frequencies. Finally, the electromechanical prototype is tested and validated achieving simultaneously reduction and harvesting functions.

Keywords: energy harvesting, piezoelectricity, torsional vibration, vibration absorber

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158 Volatility Index, Fear Sentiment and Cross-Section of Stock Returns: Indian Evidence

Authors: Pratap Chandra Pati, Prabina Rajib, Parama Barai

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The traditional finance theory neglects the role of sentiment factor in asset pricing. However, the behavioral approach to asset-pricing based on noise trader model and limit to arbitrage includes investor sentiment as a priced risk factor in the assist pricing model. Investor sentiment affects stock more that are vulnerable to speculation, hard to value and risky to arbitrage. It includes small stocks, high volatility stocks, growth stocks, distressed stocks, young stocks and non-dividend-paying stocks. Since the introduction of Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE) volatility index (VIX) in 1993, it is used as a measure of future volatility in the stock market and also as a measure of investor sentiment. CBOE VIX index, in particular, is often referred to as the ‘investors’ fear gauge’ by public media and prior literature. The upward spikes in the volatility index are associated with bouts of market turmoil and uncertainty. High levels of the volatility index indicate fear, anxiety and pessimistic expectations of investors about the stock market. On the contrary, low levels of the volatility index reflect confident and optimistic attitude of investors. Based on the above discussions, we investigate whether market-wide fear levels measured volatility index is priced factor in the standard asset pricing model for the Indian stock market. First, we investigate the performance and validity of Fama and French three-factor model and Carhart four-factor model in the Indian stock market. Second, we explore whether India volatility index as a proxy for fearful market-based sentiment indicators affect the cross section of stock returns after controlling for well-established risk factors such as market excess return, size, book-to-market, and momentum. Asset pricing tests are performed using monthly data on CNX 500 index constituent stocks listed on the National stock exchange of India Limited (NSE) over the sample period that extends from January 2008 to March 2017. To examine whether India volatility index, as an indicator of fear sentiment, is a priced risk factor, changes in India VIX is included as an explanatory variable in the Fama-French three-factor model as well as Carhart four-factor model. For the empirical testing, we use three different sets of test portfolios used as the dependent variable in the in asset pricing regressions. The first portfolio set is the 4x4 sorts on the size and B/M ratio. The second portfolio set is the 4x4 sort on the size and sensitivity beta of change in IVIX. The third portfolio set is the 2x3x2 independent triple-sorting on size, B/M and sensitivity beta of change in IVIX. We find evidence that size, value and momentum factors continue to exist in Indian stock market. However, VIX index does not constitute a priced risk factor in the cross-section of returns. The inseparability of volatility and jump risk in the VIX is a possible explanation of the current findings in the study.

Keywords: India VIX, Fama-French model, Carhart four-factor model, asset pricing

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