Search results for: regression curves

Authors: Gianna Zou

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Propensity score matching (PSM), introduced by Paul R. Rosenbaum and Donald Rubin in 1983, is a popular statistical matching technique which tries to estimate the treatment effects by taking into account covariates that could impact the efficacy of study medication in clinical trials. PSM can be used to reduce the bias due to confounding variables. However, PSM assumes that the response values are normally distributed. In some cases, this assumption may not be held. In this paper, a machine learning method - Bayesian Additive Regression Tree (BART), is used as a more robust method of matching. BART can work well when models are misspecified since it can be used to model heterogeneous treatment effects. Moreover, it has the capability to handle non-linear main effects and multiway interactions. In this research, a BART Matching Method (BMM) is proposed to provide a more reliable matching method over PSM. By comparing the analysis results from PSM and BMM, BMM can perform well and has better prediction capability when the response values are not normally distributed.

Keywords: BART, Bayesian, matching, regression

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Authors: S. K. Ashiquer Rahman

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the paper concentrations on the importance of hourly compensation, emphasizing the significance of the unemployment rate. There are the two most important factors of a nation these are its unemployment rate and hourly compensation. These are not merely statistics but they have profound effects on individual, families, and the economy. They are inversely related to one another. When we consider the unemployment rate that will probably decline as hourly compensations in manufacturing rise. But when we reduced the unemployment rates and increased job prospects could result from higher compensation. That’s why, the increased hourly compensation in the manufacturing sector that could have a favorable effect on job changing issues. Moreover, the relationship between hourly compensation and unemployment is complex and influenced by broader economic factors. In this paper, we use panel data regression models to evaluate the expected link between hourly compensation and unemployment rate in order to determine the effect of hourly compensation on unemployment rate. We estimate the fixed effects model, evaluate the error components, and determine which model (the FEM or ECM) is better by pooling all 60 observations. We then analysis and review the data by comparing 3 several countries (United States, Canada and the United Kingdom) using panel data regression models. Finally, we provide result, analysis and a summary of the extensive research on how the hourly compensation effects on the unemployment rate. Additionally, this paper offers relevant and useful informational to help the government and academic community use an econometrics and social approach to lessen on the effect of the hourly compensation on Unemployment rate to eliminate the problem.

Keywords: hourly compensation, Unemployment rate, panel data regression models, dummy variables, random effects model, fixed effects model, the linear regression model

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Authors: Florin Leon, Silvia Curteanu

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Developing complete mechanistic models for polymerization reactors is not easy, because complex reactions occur simultaneously; there is a large number of kinetic parameters involved and sometimes the chemical and physical phenomena for mixtures involving polymers are poorly understood. To overcome these difficulties, empirical models based on sampled data can be used instead, namely regression methods typical of machine learning field. They have the ability to learn the trends of a process without any knowledge about its particular physical and chemical laws. Therefore, they are useful for modeling complex processes, such as the free radical polymerization of methyl methacrylate achieved in a batch bulk process. The goal is to generate accurate predictions of monomer conversion, numerical average molecular weight and gravimetrical average molecular weight. This process is associated with non-linear gel and glass effects. For this purpose, an adaptive sampling technique is presented, which can select more samples around the regions where the values have a higher variation. Several machine learning methods are used for the modeling and their performance is compared: support vector machines, k-nearest neighbor, k-nearest neighbor and random forest, as well as an original algorithm, large margin nearest neighbor regression. The suggested method provides very good results compared to the other well-known regression algorithms.

Keywords: batch bulk methyl methacrylate polymerization, adaptive sampling, machine learning, large margin nearest neighbor regression

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Authors: Ana Clara Santos, Maria Manuela Portela, Bettina Schaefli

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This work assesses the performance of an analytical model framework to generate daily flow duration curves, FDCs, based on climatic characteristics of the catchments and on their streamflow recession coefficients. According to the analytical model framework, precipitation is considered to be a stochastic process, modeled as a marked Poisson process, and recession is considered to be deterministic, with parameters that can be computed based on different models. The analytical model framework was tested for three case studies with different hydrological regimes located in Switzerland: pluvial, snow-dominated and glacier. For that purpose, five time intervals were analyzed (the four meteorological seasons and the civil year) and two developments of the model were tested: one considering a linear recession model and the other adopting a nonlinear recession model. Those developments were combined with recession coefficients obtained from two different approaches: forward and inverse estimation. The performance of the analytical framework when considering forward parameter estimation is poor in comparison with the inverse estimation for both, linear and nonlinear models. For the pluvial catchment, the inverse estimation shows exceptional good results, especially for the nonlinear model, clearing suggesting that the model has the ability to describe FDCs. For the snow-dominated and glacier catchments the seasonal results are better than the annual ones suggesting that the model can describe streamflows in those conditions and that future efforts should focus on improving and combining seasonal curves instead of considering single annual ones.

Keywords: analytical streamflow distribution, stochastic process, linear and non-linear recession, hydrological modelling, daily discharges

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Authors: Olawale Babatunde Olatinsu, Deborah Oluwaseun Olorode

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Industrial rocks were collected from a quarry site at Ewekoro in south-western Nigeria and analysed using Nuclear Magnetic Resonance (NMR) technique. NMR measurement was conducted on the samples in partial water-saturated and full brine-saturated conditions. Raw NMR data were analysed with the aid of T2 curves and T2 spectra generated by inversion of raw NMR data using conventional regularized least-squares inversion routine. Results show that NMR transverse relaxation (T2) signatures fairly adequately distinguish between the rock types. Similar T2 curve trend and rates at partial saturation suggests that the relaxation is mainly due to adsorption of water on micropores of similar sizes while T2 curves at full saturation depict relaxation decay rate as: 1/T2(shale)>1/ T2(glauconite)>1/ T2(limestone) and 1/T2(sandstone). NMR T2 distributions at full brine-saturation show: unimodal distribution in shale; bimodal distribution in sandstone and glauconite; and trimodal distribution in limestone. Full saturation T2 distributions revealed the presence of well-developed and more abundant micropores in all the samples with T2 in the range, 402-504 μs. Mesopores with amplitudes much lower than those of micropores are present in limestone, sandstone and glauconite with T2 range: 8.45-26.10 ms, 6.02-10.55 ms, and 9.45-13.26 ms respectively. Very low amplitude macropores of T2 values, 90.26-312.16 ms, are only recognizable in limestone samples. Samples with multiple peaks showed well-connected pore systems with sandstone having the highest degree of connectivity. The difference in T2 curves and distributions for the rocks at full saturation can be utilised as a potent diagnostic tool for discrimination of these rock types found at Ewekoro.

Keywords: Ewekoro, NMR techniques, industrial rocks, characterization, relaxation

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Authors: Daniel Llanes, Alfredo Reyes, Sonia E. Ruiz, Federico Valenzuela Beltran

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Steel frames have been used in building construction for more than one hundred years. Beam-column may be connected to columns using either stiffened or unstiffened angles at the top and bottom beam flanges. Designers often assume that these assemblies acted as “pinned” connections for gravity loads and that the stiffened connections would act as “fixed” connections for lateral loads. Observation of damages sustained by buildings during the 1994 Northridge earthquake indicated that, contrary to the intended behavior, in many cases, brittle fractures initiated within the connections at very low levels of plastic demand, and in some cases, while the structures remained essentially elastic. Due to the damage presented in these buildings other type of alternative connections have been proposed. According to a research funded by the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA), the screwed connections have better performance when they are subjected to cyclic loads, but at the same time, these connections have some degree of flexibility. Due to this situation, some researchers ventured into the study of semi-rigid connections. In the present study three steel buildings, constituted by regular frames are analyzed. Two types of connections are considered: pinned and semi-rigid connections. With the aim to estimate their structural capacity, a number of incremental dynamic analyzes are performed. 3D structural models are used for the analyses. The seismic ground motions were recorded on sites near Los Angeles, California, where the structures are supposed to be located. The vulnerability curves of the building are obtained in terms of maximum inter-story drifts. The vulnerability curves (which correspond to the models with two different types of connections) are compared, and its implications on its structural design and performance is discussed.

Keywords: steel frame Buildings, vulnerability curves, semi-rigid connections, pinned connections

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Authors: Andrea J. Alarcón, Maxime Daulat, Raydel Lorenzo, Renato P. Da Cunha, Pierre Breul

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Brazil has increased the use of renewable energy during the last years. Due to its sunshine and large surface area, photovoltaic panels founded in helical piles have been used to produce solar energy. Since Brazilian territory is mainly cover by highly porous structured tropical soils, when the helical piles are installed this structure is broken and its soil properties are modified. Considering the special characteristics of these soils, helical foundations behavior must be extensively studied. The first objective of this work is to determine the most suitable method to estimate the tensile capacity of helical piles in tropical soils. The second objective is to simulate the behavior of these piles in tropical soil. To obtain the rupture to assess load-displacement curves and the ultimate load, also a numerical modelling using Plaxis software was conducted. Lastly, the ultimate load and the load-displacements curves are compared with experimental values to validate the implemented model.

Keywords: finite element, helical piles, modelling, tropical soil, uplift capacity

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Authors: Sanoj Sahu, Ramakar Jha

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Odisha (India) is in need of reliable, cost-effective power generation. A prolonged electricity crisis and increasing power demand have left over thousands of citizens without access to electricity, and much of the population suffers from sporadic outages. The purpose of this project is to build a methodology to evaluate small hydropower potential, which can be used to alleviate the Odisha’s energy problem among rural communities. This project has three major tasks: the design of a simple SHEP for a single location along a river in the Odisha; the development of water flow prediction equations through a linear regression analysis; and the design of an ArcGIS toolset to estimate the flow duration curves (FDCs) at locations where data do not exist. An explanation of the inputs to the tool, as well has how it produces a suitable output for SHEP evaluation will be presented. The paper also gives an explanation of hydroelectric power generation in the Odisha, SHEPs, and the technical and practical aspects of hydroelectric power. Till now, based on topographical and rainfall analysis we have located hundreds of sites. Further work on more number of site location and accuracy of location is to be done.

Keywords: small hydropower, ArcGIS, rainfall analysis, Odisha’s energy problem

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Authors: Lidija R. Jevrić, Sanja O. Podunavac-Kuzmanović, Strahinja Z. Kovačević

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This study considers the selection of the most suitable in silico molecular descriptors that could be used for s-triazine pesticides characterization. Suitable descriptors among topological, geometrical and physicochemical are used for quantitative structure-retention relationships (QSRR) model establishment. Established models were obtained using linear regression (LR) and multiple linear regression (MLR) analysis. In this paper, MLR models were established avoiding multicollinearity among the selected molecular descriptors. Statistical quality of established models was evaluated by standard and cross-validation statistical parameters. For detection of similarity or dissimilarity among investigated s-triazine pesticides and their classification, principal component analysis (PCA) and hierarchical cluster analysis (HCA) were used and gave similar grouping. This study is financially supported by COST action TD1305.

Keywords: chemometrics, classification analysis, molecular descriptors, pesticides, regression analysis

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Authors: Apollinaire Barme, Simon Tamayo, Arthur Gaudron

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This paper presents a statistical approach to identify explanatory variables linearly related to e-commerce sales. The proposed methodology allows specifying a regression model in order to quantify the relevance between openly available data (economic and demographic) and national e-commerce sales. The proposed methodology consists in collecting data, preselecting input variables, performing regressions for choosing variables and models, testing and validating. The usefulness of the proposed approach is twofold: on the one hand, it allows identifying the variables that influence e- commerce sales with an accessible approach. And on the other hand, it can be used to model future sales from the input variables. Results show that e-commerce is linearly dependent on 11 economic and demographic indicators.

Keywords: e-commerce, statistical modeling, regression, empirical research

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Authors: Murat Çeşme

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For a bridge engineer to ensure a safe footing design, it is very important to estimate the maximum scour depth around the piers as accurately as possible. Many experimental studies have been performed by several investigators to obtain information about scouring mechanism. In order to examine the effect of inclination of dual bridge piers on scour depth under clear-water conditions for various uniform flow depths, an experimental research on scaled dual bridge piers has been carried over in METU Hydromechanics Lab. Dimensional and non-dimensional curves were developed and presented to show the variation of scour depth with respect to various parameters such as footing angle with the vertical, flow depth and footing dimensions. Results of the study were compared to those obtained from a similar study performed with single inclined piers to see the effect of the second pier on scour depths. Useful equations for the design engineers were developed based on multiple regression analyses to be used for predicting local scour depths around inclined piers in uniform and non-uniform sediments.

Keywords: experimental research, inclined dual bridge piers, footing safety, scour depth, clear water condition

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Authors: Dileep Kumar Gupta, Rajendra Prasad, Pradeep Kumar, Varun Narayan Mishra, Ajeet Kumar Vishwakarma, Prashant K. Srivastava

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An approach was evaluated for the retrieval of soil moisture of bare soil surface using bistatic scatterometer data in the angular range of 200 to 700 at VV- and HH- polarization. The microwave data was acquired by specially designed X-band (10 GHz) bistatic scatterometer. The linear regression analysis was done between scattering coefficients and soil moisture content to select the suitable incidence angle for retrieval of soil moisture content. The 250 incidence angle was found more suitable. The support vector regression analysis was used to approximate the function described by the input-output relationship between the scattering coefficient and corresponding measured values of the soil moisture content. The performance of support vector regression algorithm was evaluated by comparing the observed and the estimated soil moisture content by statistical performance indices %Bias, root mean squared error (RMSE) and Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency (NSE). The values of %Bias, root mean squared error (RMSE) and Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency (NSE) were found 2.9451, 1.0986, and 0.9214, respectively at HH-polarization. At VV- polarization, the values of %Bias, root mean squared error (RMSE) and Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency (NSE) were found 3.6186, 0.9373, and 0.9428, respectively.

Keywords: bistatic scatterometer, soil moisture, support vector regression, RMSE, %Bias, NSE

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Authors: V. Pérez-Herranz, C. González-Buch, E. M. Ortega, S. Mestre

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In this work new macroporous Ni electrodes modified with Au nanoparticles for hydrogen production have been developed. The supporting macroporous Ni electrodes have been obtained by means of the electrodeposition at high current densities. Then, the Au nanoparticles were synthesized and added to the electrode surface. The electrocatalytic behaviour of the developed electrocatalysts was studied by means of pseudo-steady-state polarization curves, electrochemical impedance spectroscopy (EIS) and hydrogen discharge curves. The size of the Au synthetized nanoparticles shows a monomodal distribution, with a very sharp band between 10 and 50 nm. The characteristic parameters d10, d50 and d90 were 14, 20 and 31 nm respectively. From Tafel polarization data has been concluded that the Au nanoparticles improve the catalytic activity of the developed electrodes towards the HER respect to the macroporous Ni electrodes. EIS permits to obtain the electrochemically active area by means of the roughness factor value. All the developed electrodes show roughness factor values in the same order of magnitude. From the activation energy results it can be concluded that the Au nanoparticles improve the intrinsic catalytic activity of the macroporous Ni electrodes.

Keywords: Au nano particles, hydrogen evolution reaction, porous Ni electrodes, electrochemical impedance spectroscopy

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Authors: Mina Adel Shokry Fahim, Jūratė Sužiedelytė Visockienė

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With the growing concern over air pollution (AP), it is clear that this has gained more prominence than ever before. The level of consciousness has increased and a sense of knowledge now has to be forwarded as a duty by those enlightened enough to disseminate it to others. This realisation often comes after an understanding of how poor air quality indices (AQI) damage human health. The study focuses on assessing air pollution prediction models specifically for Lithuania, addressing a substantial need for empirical research within the region. Concentrating on Vilnius, it specifically examines particulate matter concentrations 10 micrometers or less in diameter (PM10). Utilizing Gaussian Process Regression (GPR) and Regression Tree Ensemble, and Regression Tree methodologies, predictive forecasting models are validated and tested using hourly data from January 2020 to December 2022. The study explores the classification of AP data into anthropogenic and natural sources, the impact of AP on human health, and its connection to cardiovascular diseases. The study revealed varying levels of accuracy among the models, with GPR achieving the highest accuracy, indicated by an RMSE of 4.14 in validation and 3.89 in testing.

Keywords: air pollution, anthropogenic and natural sources, machine learning, Gaussian process regression, tree ensemble, forecasting models, particulate matter

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Authors: Jonathan Iworiso

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Forecasting the equity premium out-of-sample is a major concern to researchers in finance and emerging markets. The quest for a superior model that can forecast the equity premium with significant economic gains has resulted in several controversies on the choice of variables and suitable techniques among scholars. This research focuses mainly on the application of Regression Training (RT) techniques to forecast monthly equity premium out-of-sample recursively with an expanding window method. A broad category of sophisticated regression models involving model complexity was employed. The RT models include Ridge, Forward-Backward (FOBA) Ridge, Least Absolute Shrinkage and Selection Operator (LASSO), Relaxed LASSO, Elastic Net, and Least Angle Regression were trained and used to forecast the equity premium out-of-sample. In this study, the empirical investigation of the RT models demonstrates significant evidence of equity premium predictability both statistically and economically relative to the benchmark historical average, delivering significant utility gains. They seek to provide meaningful economic information on mean-variance portfolio investment for investors who are timing the market to earn future gains at minimal risk. Thus, the forecasting models appeared to guarantee an investor in a market setting who optimally reallocates a monthly portfolio between equities and risk-free treasury bills using equity premium forecasts at minimal risk.

Keywords: regression training, out-of-sample forecasts, expanding window, statistical predictability, economic significance, utility gains

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Authors: Leo Carlo B. Rondina

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Self-image is an important factor to improve the self-esteem of the personnel. The purpose of the study is to determine the self-image of the police. The respondents were the 503 policemen assigned in different Police Station in Davao City, and they were chosen with the used of random sampling. With the used of Exploratory Factor Analysis (EFA), latent construct variables of police image were identified as follows; professionalism, obedience, morality and justice and fairness. Further, ordinal regression indicates statistical characteristics on ages 21-40 which means the age of the respondent statistically improves self-image.

Keywords: police image, exploratory factor analysis, ordinal regression, Galatea effect

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Authors: Mehdi Moeinaddini, Zohreh Asadi-Shekari, Muhammad Zaly Shah, Amran Hamzah

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Currently, planners try to have more green travel options to decrease economic, social and environmental problems. Therefore, this study tries to find significant urban travel factors to be used to increase the usage of alternative urban travel modes. This paper attempts to identify the relationship between prominent urban mobility indicators and daily trips by public transport in 30 cities from various parts of the world. Different travel modes, infrastructures and cost indicators were evaluated in this research as mobility indicators. The results of multi-linear regression analysis indicate that there is a significant relationship between mobility indicators and the daily usage of public transport.

Keywords: green travel modes, urban travel indicators, daily trips by public transport, multi-linear regression analysis

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Authors: A. Ishag Mohamed, A. A. Rabah

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The objective of this research is to develop a generalized correlation for the prediction of thermal conductivity of n-Alkanes and Alkenes. There is a minority of research and lack of correlation for thermal conductivity of liquids in the open literature. The available experimental data are collected covering the groups of n-Alkanes and Alkenes.The data were assumed to correlate to temperature using Filippov correlation. Nonparametric regression of Grace Algorithm was used to develop the generalized correlation model. A spread sheet program based on Microsoft Excel was used to plot and calculate the value of the coefficients. The results obtained were compared with the data that found in Perry's Chemical Engineering Hand Book. The experimental data correlated to the temperature ranged "between" 273.15 to 673.15 K, with R2 = 0.99.The developed correlation reproduced experimental data that which were not included in regression with absolute average percent deviation (AAPD) of less than 7 %. Thus the spread sheet was quite accurate which produces reliable data.

Keywords: N-Alkanes, N-Alkenes, nonparametric, regression

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Authors: S. Bangphan, P. Bangphan, C. Ketsombun, T. Sammana

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Optimization of response surface methodology (RSM) was employed to study the effects of three factor (rubber of clearance, spindle of speed, and rice of moisture) in brown rice peeling machine of the optimal good rice yield (99.67, average of three repeats). The optimized composition derived from RSM regression was analyzed using Regression analysis and Analysis of Variance (ANOVA). At a significant level α=0.05, the values of Regression coefficient, R2 adjust were 96.55% and standard deviation were 1.05056. The independent variables are initial rubber of clearance, spindle of speed and rice of moisture parameters namely. The investigating responses are final rubber clearance, spindle of speed and moisture of rice.

Keywords: brown rice, response surface methodology (RSM), peeling machine, optimization, paddy husker

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Authors: Yiming Jin, Ping Dong

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The primary resonance of a pipeline close to a plane boundary is investigated in this paper. Based on classic Van der Pol equation and added a nonlinear item, a new wake oscillator model is proposed to predict the vortex-induced vibration (VIV) of a circular cylinder close to a plane boundary. Then, with the multi-scale method, the approximate solution for the case of the primary resonance is obtained. Besides, to study the characteristic of the primary resonance, the effects of the mass ration, frequency, damp ratio and gap ratio on the frequency-response curves of the pipeline are analysed. On the whole, the trend of the numerical results match up with that of the experimental data well and the mass ration, frequency, damp ratio and gap ratio play an important role in the vortex-induced vibration (VIV) of a circular cylinder close to a plane boundary, especially, the smaller is the mass ratio, the larger impact the gap ratio has on the frequency-response curves of the primary resonance.

Keywords: primary resonance, gap ratio, vortex-induced vibration, multi-scale method

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Authors: Habshah Midi, Mohammed A. Mohammed, Sohel Rana

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Multicollinearity occurs when two or more independent variables in a multiple linear regression model are highly correlated. The ridge regression is the commonly used method to rectify this problem. However, the ridge regression cannot handle the problem of multicollinearity which is caused by high leverage collinearity enhancing observation (HLCEO). Since high leverage points (HLPs) are responsible for inducing multicollinearity, the effect of HLPs needs to be reduced by using Generalized M estimator. The existing GM6 estimator is based on the Minimum Volume Ellipsoid (MVE) which tends to swamp some low leverage points. Hence an improvised GM (MGM) estimator is presented to improve the precision of the GM6 estimator. Numerical example and simulation study are presented to show how HLPs can cause multicollinearity. The numerical results show that our MGM estimator is the most efficient method compared to some existing methods.

Keywords: identification, high leverage points, multicollinearity, GM-estimator, DRGP, DFFITS

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Authors: S. Matour, M. Mahdavinejad, R. Fayaz

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Daylight utilization is a key factor in achieving visual and thermal comfort, and energy savings in integrated building design. However, lack of measured data related to this topic has become a major challenge with the increasing need for integrating lighting concepts and simulations in the early stages of design procedures. The current paper deals with the values of daylight illuminance on horizontal and south facing vertical surfaces; the data are estimated using IESNA model and measured values of the horizontal and vertical illuminance, and a regression model with an acceptable linear correlation is obtained. The resultant illuminance frequency curves are useful for estimating daylight availability on south facing surfaces in Tehran. In addition, the relationship between indirect vertical illuminance and the corresponding global horizontal illuminance is analyzed. A simple parametric equation is proposed in order to predict the vertical illumination on a shaded south facing surface. The equation correlates the ratio between the vertical and horizontal illuminance to the solar altitude and is used with another relationship for prediction of the vertical illuminance. Both equations show good agreement, which allows for calculation of indirect vertical illuminance on a south facing surface at any time throughout the year.

Keywords: Tehran daylight availability, horizontal illuminance, vertical illuminance, diffuse illuminance

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Authors: Jhoanne Marsh C. Gatpatan, Joshua D. Naranjo

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Logrank test and generalized Wilcoxon procedure are the two commonly used tests for comparing survival curves. Between the two, the logrank test is the appropriate test used when the proportional hazards (PH) assumption holds. Alternatively, the Wilcoxon method is used when the PH assumption fails. This is equally true when the data is stratified according to values of a covariate, with the stratified logrank as the first choice and stratified Wilcoxon as the alternative option when diagnostics show that the PH assumption is violated. Moreover, the choice between logrank and Wilcoxon tests also depends on whether survival curves tend to differ early or late in time. In this article, the relative performance of the stratified logrank against the stratified Wilcoxon over a range of treatment effect patterns is investigated. A method for using a Q–statistic to detect whether differences tend to occur early or late across strata are then proposed. Using Q as a pretest, the user will be able to choose the more powerful test under various patterns of deviations from the null hypothesis. Simulations show that the pretest is able to detect the more efficient procedure over varying patterns of treatment effect.

Keywords: covariates, pretest, proportional hazards, stratified logrank, stratified Wilcoxon

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Authors: Humeyra Bolakar Tosun

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The transport sector has an undisputed place in human life. People need transport access to continuous increase day by day with growing population. The number of rail network, urban transport planning, infrastructure improvements, transportation management and other related areas is a key factor affecting our country made it quite necessary to improve the work of transportation. In this context, it plays an important role in domestic rail freight demand planning. Alternatives that the increase in the transportation field and has made it mandatory requirements such as the demand for improving transport quality. In this study generally is known and used in studies by the definition, rail freight transport, railway line length, population, energy consumption. In this study, Iron Road Load Net Demand was modeled by multiple regression and ANN methods. In this study, model dependent variable (Output) is Iron Road Load Net demand and 6 entries variable was determined. These outcome values extracted from the model using ANN and regression model results. In the regression model, some parameters are considered as determinative parameters, and the coefficients of the determinants give meaningful results. As a result, ANN model has been shown to be more successful than traditional regression model.

Keywords: railway load carrying, neural network, modelling transport, transportation

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Authors: Ahmed Chetouani

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Corrosion is a natural occurring process where it can be defined as the deterioration of materials properties due to its interaction with its environment. Corrosion can lead to failures in plant infrastructure and machines which are usually costly to repair. In terms of loss of contaminated products which will cause environmental damage and possibly costly in terms of human health. The driving force that causes metals to corrode is due to the natural consequence of their temporary existence in metallic form. There is a growing trend in utilizing plant extracts and pharmaceutical compounds as corrosion inhibitors. Exquisite identification of the essential oil of aerial parts of Pelargonium was obtained using hydrodistillation and identification using GC (gas chromatography) and GC/MS (gas chromatography-mass spectrometry). The oil was predominated by Citronellol (22.8%). The inhibitory effect of essential oil and extract of Pelargonium was estimated on the corrosion of mild steel in 1M hydrochloric acid (HCl) using weight loss, Electrochemical Impedance Spectroscopy (EIS) and Tafel polarization curves. Inhibition was found to increase with increasing concentration of the essential oil and extract of Pelargonium. The effect of temperature on the corrosion behaviour of mild steel in 1M HCl with addition of essential oil and extract was also studied and the thermodynamic parameters were determined and discussed. Values of inhibition efficiency were calculated from weight loss, Tafel polarization curves, and EIS. All results are in good agreement. Polarization curves showed that essential oil and extract of Pelargonium behave as mixed type inhibitors in hydrochloric acid. The results obtained showed that the essential oil and extract of Pelargonium could serve as an effective inhibitor of the corrosion of mild steel in Hydrochloric acid solution. To avoid any surprise of toxicity, the majority compounds have been studied by using POM analyses.

Keywords: corrosion inhibition, mild steel, pelargonium oil, extract, electrochemical system, hydrodistillation, side effects, POM Analyses

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Authors: Brahim Boukabcha, Amar Rebbouh

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The bootstrap method based on the idea of exploiting all the information provided by the initial sample, allows us to study the properties of estimators. In this article we will present a theoretical study on the different methods of bootstrapping and using the technique of re-sampling in statistics inference to calculate the standard error of means of an estimator and determining a confidence interval for an estimated parameter. We apply these methods tested in the regression models and Pareto model, giving the best approximations.

Keywords: bootstrap, error standard, bias, jackknife, mean, median, variance, confidence interval, regression models

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Authors: Shayan Arefi, Qadir Esmaili, Seyed Ali Jazayeri

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The performance of cooling system affects on efficiency of turbo generators and temperature of winding. Fan blade is one of the most important components of cooling system which plays a significant role in ventilation of generators. Fan performance curve depends on the blade geometry and boundary condition. This paper calculates numerically the performance curve of axial flow fan mounted on turbo generator with 160 MW output power. The numerical calculation was implemented by Ansys-workbench software. The geometrical model of blade was created by bladegen, grid generation and configuration was made by turbogrid and finally, the simulation was implemented by CFX. For the first step, the performance curves consist of pressure rise and efficiency flow rate were calculated in the original angle of blade. Then, by changing the attack angle of blade, the related performance curves were calculated. CFD results for performance curve of each angle show a good agreement with experimental results. Additionally, the field velocity and pressure gradient of flow near the blade were investigated and simulated numerically with varying of angle.

Keywords: turbo generator, axial fan, Ansys, performance

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Authors: Shahin Mirshekari, Mohammadreza Moradi, Hossein Jafari, Mehdi Jafari, Mohammad Ensaf

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This research employs Gaussian Process Regression (GPR) with an ensemble kernel, integrating Exponential Squared, Revised Matern, and Rational Quadratic kernels to analyze pharmaceutical sales data. Bayesian optimization was used to identify optimal kernel weights: 0.76 for Exponential Squared, 0.21 for Revised Matern, and 0.13 for Rational Quadratic. The ensemble kernel demonstrated superior performance in predictive accuracy, achieving an R² score near 1.0, and significantly lower values in MSE, MAE, and RMSE. These findings highlight the efficacy of ensemble kernels in GPR for predictive analytics in complex pharmaceutical sales datasets.

Keywords: Gaussian process regression, ensemble kernels, bayesian optimization, pharmaceutical sales analysis, time series forecasting, data analysis

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Authors: Cristina Giosuè, Federica Biondo, Sergio Vitale

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In the last years, the consumers' awareness for environmental concerns has been increasing, and seafood eco-labels are considered as a possible instrument to improve both seafood markets and sustainable fishing management. In this direction, the aim of this study was to carry out a meta-analysis on consumers’ willingness to pay (WTP) for eco-labeled wild seafood, by a meta-regression. Therefore, only papers published on ISI journals were searched on “Web of Knowledge” and “SciVerse Scopus” platforms, using the combinations of the following key words: seafood, ecolabel, eco-label, willingness, WTP and premium. The dataset was built considering: paper’s and survey’s codes, year of publication, first author’s nationality, species’ taxa and family, sample size, survey’s continent and country, data collection (where and how), gender and age of consumers, brand and ΔWTP. From analysis the interest on eco labeled seafood emerged clearly, in particular in developed countries. In general, consumers declared greater willingness to pay than that actually applied for eco-label products, with difference related to taxa and brand.

Keywords: eco label, meta regression, seafood, willingness to pay

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Authors: Xiaoyong He

Abstract:

The manipulation of THz waves is still a challenging task due to lack of natural materials interacted with it strongly. Designed by tailoring the characters of unit cells (meta-molecules), the advance of metamaterials (MMs) may solve this problem. However, because of Ohmic and radiation losses, the performance of MMs devices is subjected to the dissipation and low quality factor (Q-factor). This dilemma may be circumvented by Fano resonance, which arises from the destructive interference between a bright continuum mode and dark discrete mode (or a narrow resonance). Different from symmetric Lorentz spectral curve, Fano resonance indicates a distinct asymmetric line-shape, ultrahigh quality factor, steep variations in spectrum curves. Fano resonance is usually realized through symmetry breaking. However, if concentric double rings (DR) are placed closely to each other, the near-field coupling between them gives rise to two hybridized modes (bright and narrowband dark modes) because of the local asymmetry, resulting into the characteristic Fano line shape. Furthermore, from the practical viewpoint, it is highly desirable requirement that to achieve the modulation of Fano spectral curves conveniently, which is an important and interesting research topics. For current Fano systems, the tunable spectral curves can be realized by adjusting the geometrical structural parameters or magnetic fields biased the ferrite-based structure. But due to limited dispersion properties of active materials, it is still a tough work to tailor Fano resonance conveniently with the fixed structural parameters. With the favorable properties of extreme confinement and high tunability, graphene is a strong candidate to achieve this goal. The DR-structure possesses the excitation of so-called “trapped modes,” with the merits of simple structure and high quality of resonances in thin structures. By depositing graphene circular DR on the SiO2/Si/ polymer substrate, the tunable Fano resonance has been theoretically investigated in the terahertz regime, including the effects of graphene Fermi level, structural parameters and operation frequency. The results manifest that the obvious Fano peak can be efficiently modulated because of the strong coupling between incident waves and graphene ribbons. As Fermi level increases, the peak amplitude of Fano curve increases, and the resonant peak position shifts to high frequency. The amplitude modulation depth of Fano curves is about 30% if Fermi level changes in the scope of 0.1-1.0 eV. The optimum gap distance between DR is about 8-12 μm, where the value of figure of merit shows a peak. As the graphene ribbon width increases, the Fano spectral curves become broad, and the resonant peak denotes blue shift. The results are very helpful to develop novel graphene plasmonic devices, e.g. sensors and modulators.

Keywords: graphene, metamaterials, terahertz, tunable

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