Search results for: probabilistic sampling

Authors: Z. Asadgol, A. Nadali, H. Arfaeinia, M. Khalifeh Gholi, R. Fateh, M. Fahiminia

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The present investigation was conducted to detect the type and concentrations of bacterial and fungal bioaerosols in one room (bedroom) of each selected residential building located in different regions of Qom during February 2015 (n=9) to July 2016 (n=11). Moreover, we evaluated the efficiency of negative air ions (NAIs) in bioaerosol reduction in indoor air in residential buildings. In the first step, the mean concentrations of bacterial and fungal in nine sampling sites evaluated in winter were 744 and 579 colony forming units (CFU)/m³, while these values were 1628.6 and 231 CFU/m³ in the 11 sampling sites evaluated in summer, respectively. The most predominant genera between bacterial and fungal in all sampling sites were detected as Micrococcus spp. and Staphylococcus spp. and also, Aspergillus spp. and Penicillium spp., respectively. The 95% and 45% of sampling sites have bacterial and fungal concentrations over the recommended levels, respectively. In the removal step, we achieved a reduction with a range of 38% to 93% for bacterial genera and 25% to 100% for fungal genera by using NAIs. The results suggested that NAI is a highly effective, simple and efficient technique in reducing the bacterial and fungal concentration in the indoor air of residential buildings.

Keywords: bacterial, fungal, negative air ions (NAIs), indoor air, Iran

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Authors: A. Flora, A. Di Lascio, D. Cardone, G. Gesualdi, G. Perrone

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This paper considers the seismic assessment and retrofit of a pilotis-type RC frame building, which was designed for gravity loads only, prior to the introduction of seismic design provisions. Pilotis-type RC frame buildings, featuring an uniform infill throughout the height and an open ground floor, were, and still are, quite popular all over the world, as they offer large open areas very suitable for retail space at the ground floor. These architectural advantages, however, are of detriment to the building seismic behavior, as they can determine a soft-storey collapse mechanism. Extensive numerical analyses are carried out to quantify and benchmark the performance of the selected building, both in terms of overall collapse capacity and expected losses. Alternative retrofit strategies are then examined, including: (i) steel jacketing of RC columns and beam-column joints, (ii) steel bracing and (iv) seismic isolation. The Expected Annual Loss (EAL) of the selected case-study building, pre- and post-rehabilitation, is evaluated, following a probabilistic approach. The breakeven time of each solution is computed, comparing the initial cost of the retrofit intervention with expected benefit in terms of EAL reduction.

Keywords: expected annual loss, reinforced concrete buildings, seismic loss assessment, seismic retrofit

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Authors: Hamidreza Sharifan, Audra Morse

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Accurate assessments of contaminant concentrations based on traditional grab sampling methods are not always possible. Passive samplers offer an attractive alternative to traditional sampling methods that overcomes these limitations. The POCIS approach has been used as a screening tool for determining the presence/absence, possible sources and relative amounts of organic compounds at field sites. The objective for the present research is on mass transfer of five water contaminants (atrazine, caffeine, bentazon, ibuprofen, atenolol) through the Water Boundary Layer (WBL) and membrane. More specific objectives followed by establishing a relationship between the sampling rate and water solubility of the compounds, as well as comparing the molecular weight of the compounds and concentration of the compounds at the time of equilibrium. To determine whether water boundary layer effects transport rate through the membrane is another main objective in this paper. After GC mass analysis of compounds, regarding the WBL effect in this experiment, Sherwood number for the experimental tank developed. A close relationship between feed concentration of compound and sampling rate has been observed.

Keywords: passive sampler, water contaminants, PES-transfer rate, contaminant concentrations

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Authors: S. Suman, G. N. Singh

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This research work is an effort to analyse the consequences of scrambled response technique to estimate the current population mean in two-occasion successive sampling when the characteristic of interest is sensitive in nature. The generalized estimation procedures have been proposed using sensitive auxiliary variables under additive and multiplicative scramble models. The properties of resultant estimators have been deeply examined. Simulation, as well as empirical studies, are carried out to evaluate the performances of the proposed estimators with respect to other competent estimators. The results of our studies suggest that the proposed estimation procedures are highly effective under the presence of non-response situation. The result of this study also suggests that additive scrambled response model is a better choice in the perspective of cost of the survey and privacy of the respondents.

Keywords: scrambled response, sensitive characteristic, successive sampling, optimum replacement strategy

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Authors: A. T. Kassem

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Fires areconsidered a common hazardous action that any building may face. Most buildings’ structural elements are designed, taking into consideration precautions for fire safety, using deterministic design approaches. Public and highly important buildings are commonly designed considering standard fire rating and, in many cases, contain large compartments with central domes. Real fire scenarios are not commonly brought into action in structural design of buildings because of complexities in both scenarios and analysis tools. This paper presents a modern approach towards analysis of spherical domes in real fire condition via implementation of building information modelling, and adopting a probabilistic approach. BIMhas been implemented to bridge the gap between various software packages enabling them to function interactively to model both real fire and corresponding structural response. Ventilation controlled fires scenarios have been modeled using both “Revit” and “Pyrosim”. Monte Carlo simulation has been adopted to engage the probabilistic analysis approach in dealing with various parameters. Conclusions regarding failure probability and fire endurance, in addition to the effects of various parameters, have been extracted.

Keywords: concrete, spherical domes, ventilation controlled fires, BIM, monte carlo simulation, pyrosim, revit

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Authors: Chaghoub Soraya, Zhang Xiaoyan

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This research presents the first constant approximation algorithm to the p-median network design problem with multiple cable types. This problem was addressed with a single cable type and there is a bifactor approximation algorithm for the problem. To the best of our knowledge, the algorithm proposed in this paper is the first constant approximation algorithm for the p-median network design with multiple cable types. The addressed problem is a combination of two well studied problems which are p-median problem and network design problem. The introduced algorithm is a random sampling approximation algorithm of constant factor which is conceived by using some random sampling techniques form the literature. It is based on a redistribution Lemma from the literature and a steiner tree problem as a subproblem. This algorithm is simple, and it relies on the notions of random sampling and probability. The proposed approach gives an approximation solution with one constant ratio without violating any of the constraints, in contrast to the one proposed in the literature. This paper provides a (21 + 2)-approximation algorithm for the p-median network design problem with multiple cable types using random sampling techniques.

Keywords: approximation algorithms, buy-at-bulk, combinatorial optimization, network design, p-median

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Authors: Zs. Csanádi, A. Szabó Nagy, J. Szabó, J. Erdős

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Atmospheric aerosols have several important environmental impacts and health effects in point of air quality. Monitoring the PM10-bound polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) could have important environmental significance and health protection aspects. Benzo(a)pyrene (BaP) is the most relevant indicator of these PAH compounds. In Hungary, the Hungarian Air Quality Network provides air quality monitoring data for several air pollutants including BaP, but these data show only the annual mean concentrations and maximum values. Seasonal variation of BaP concentrations comparing the heating and non-heating periods could have important role and difference as well. For this reason, the main objective of this study was to assess the annual concentration and seasonal variation of BaP associated with PM10 in the ambient air of Northwestern Hungary seven different sampling sites (six urban and one rural) in the sampling period of 2008–2013. A total of 1475 PM10 aerosol samples were collected in the different sampling sites and analyzed for BaP by gas chromatography method. The BaP concentrations ranged from undetected to 8 ng/m3 with the mean value range of 0.50-0.96 ng/m3 referring to all sampling sites. Relatively higher concentrations of BaP were detected in samples collected in each sampling site in the heating seasons compared with non-heating periods. The annual mean BaP concentrations were comparable with the published data of the other Hungarian sites.

Keywords: air quality, benzo(a)pyrene, PAHs, polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons

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Authors: Satyam Raikwar, Thomas Herlitzius, Jens Fehrmann

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In recent years, the autonomous navigation of orchard and field robots is an emerging technology of the mobile robotics in agriculture. One of the core aspects of autonomous navigation builds upon path planning, which is still a crucial issue. Generally, for simple representation, the path planning for a mobile robot is performed in a two-dimensional space, which creates a path between the start and goal point. This paper presents the automatic path planning approach for robots used in orchards and vineyards using occupancy grid maps with field consideration. The orchards and vineyards are usually structured environment and their topology is assumed to be constant over time; therefore, in this approach, an RGB image of a field is used as a working environment. These images undergone different image processing operations and then discretized into two-dimensional grid matrices. The individual grid or cell of these grid matrices represents the occupancy of the space, whether it is free or occupied. The grid matrix represents the robot workspace for motion and path planning. After the grid matrix is described, a probabilistic roadmap (PRM) path algorithm is used to create the obstacle-free path over these occupancy grids. The path created by this method was successfully verified in the test area. Furthermore, this approach is used in the navigation of the orchard robot.

Keywords: orchard robots, automatic path planning, occupancy grid, probabilistic roadmap

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Authors: Reza Moslemi, Sebastien Perrier

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Water infrastructure deterioration can result in increased operational costs owing to increased repair needs and non-revenue water and consequently cause a reduced level of service and customer service satisfaction. Various water main condition assessment technologies have been introduced to the market in order to evaluate the level of pipe deterioration and to develop appropriate asset management and pipe renewal plans. One of the challenges for any condition assessment and inspection program is to determine the percentage of the water network and the combination of pipe segments to be inspected in order to obtain a meaningful representation of the status of the entire water network with a desirable level of accuracy. Traditionally, condition assessment has been conducted by selecting pipes based on age or location. However, this may not necessarily offer the best approach, and it is believed that by using a smart sampling methodology, a better and more reliable estimate of the condition of a water network can be achieved. This research investigates three different sampling methodologies, including random, stratified, and systematic. It is demonstrated that selecting pipes based on the proposed clustering and sampling scheme can considerably improve the ability of the inspected subset to represent the condition of a wider network. With a smart sampling methodology, a smaller data sample can provide the same insight as a larger sample. This methodology offers increased efficiency and cost savings for condition assessment processes and projects.

Keywords: condition assessment, pipe degradation, sampling, water main

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Authors: Hatthaphone Silimanotham, Michael Henry

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The effective maintenance of road bridge infrastructure is becoming a widely researched topic in the civil engineering field. Deterioration is one of the main issues in bridge performance, and it is necessary to understand how bridges deteriorate to optimally plan budget allocation for bridge maintenance. In Laos, many bridges are in a deteriorated state, which may affect the performance of the bridge. Due to bridge deterioration, the Ministry of Public Works and Transport is interested in the deterioration model to allocate the budget efficiently and support the bridge maintenance planning. A deterioration model can be used to predict the bridge condition in the future based on the observed behavior in the past. This paper analyzes the available inspection data of road bridges on the road classifications network to build deterioration prediction models for the main bridge type found at the provincial level (concrete slab, concrete girder, and steel truss) using probabilistic deterioration modeling by linear regression method. The analysis targets there has three bridge types in the 18 provinces of Laos and estimates the bridge deterioration rating for evaluating the bridge's remaining life. This research thus considers the relationship between the service period and the bridge condition to represent the probability of bridge condition in the future. The results of the study can be used for a variety of bridge management tasks, including maintenance planning, budgeting, and evaluating bridge assets.

Keywords: deterioration model, bridge condition, bridge management, probabilistic modeling

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Authors: Liaquat Ahmad, Muhammad Aslam, Muhammad Azam

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In this article, we propose a control chart based on repetitive group sampling scheme for the location parameter. This charting scheme is based on the regression estimator; an estimator that capitalize the relationship between the variables of interest to provide more sensitive control than the commonly used individual variables. The control limit coefficients have been estimated for different sample sizes for less and highly correlated variables. The monitoring of the production process is constructed by adopting the procedure of the Shewhart’s x-bar control chart. Its performance is verified by the average run length calculations when the shift occurs in the average value of the estimator. It has been observed that the less correlated variables have rapid false alarm rate.

Keywords: average run length, control charts, process shift, regression estimators, repetitive group sampling

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Authors: Mehran Naghizaderokni, Asscar Janalizadechobbasty

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This paper explores probabilistic method for assessing the liquefaction potential of sandy soils. The current simplified methods for assessing soil liquefaction potential use a deterministic safety factor in order to determine whether liquefaction will occur or not. However, these methods are unable to determine the liquefaction probability related to a safety factor. A solution to this problem can be found by reliability analysis.This paper presents a reliability analysis method based on the popular certain liquefaction analysis method. The proposed probabilistic method is formulated based on the results of reliability analyses of 190 field records and observations of soil performance against liquefaction. The results of the present study show that confidence coefficient greater and smaller than 1 does not mean safety and/or liquefaction in cadence for liquefaction, and for assuring liquefaction probability, reliability based method analysis should be used. This reliability method uses the empirical acceleration attenuation law in the Chalos area to derive the probability density distribution function and the statistics for the earthquake-induced cyclic shear stress ratio (CSR). The CSR and CRR statistics are used in continuity with the first order and second moment method to calculate the relation between the liquefaction probability, the safety factor and the reliability index. Based on the proposed method, the liquefaction probability related to a safety factor can be easily calculated. The influence of some of the soil parameters on the liquefaction probability can be quantitatively evaluated.

Keywords: liquefaction, reliability analysis, chalos area, civil and structural engineering

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Authors: Komeil Valipourian

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Urban advances and the growing need for developing infrastructures has increased the importance of deep excavations. In this study, after the introducing probability analysis as an important issue, an attempt has been made to apply it for the deep excavation project of Bangkok’s Metro as a case study. For this, the numerical probability model has been developed based on the Finite Difference Method and Monte Carlo sampling approach. The results indicate that disregarding the issue of probability in this project will result in an inappropriate design of the retaining structure. Therefore, probabilistic redesign of the support is proposed and carried out as one of the applications of probability analysis. A 50% reduction in the flexural strength of the structure increases the failure probability just by 8% in the allowable range and helps improve economic conditions, while maintaining mechanical efficiency. With regard to the lack of efficient design in most deep excavations, by considering geometrical and geotechnical variability, an attempt was made to develop an optimum practical design standard for deep excavations based on failure probability. On this basis, a practical relationship is presented for estimating the maximum allowable horizontal displacement, which can help improve design conditions without developing the probability analysis.

Keywords: numerical probability modeling, deep excavation, allowable maximum displacement, finite difference method (FDM)

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Authors: Siu-Siu Guo, Qingxuan Shi

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In this paper, single-degree-of-freedom (SDOF) systems to white noise and colored noise excitations are investigated. By expressing colored noise excitation as a second-order filtered white noise process and introducing colored noise as an additional state variable, the equation of motion for SDOF system under colored noise is then transferred artificially to multi-degree-of-freedom (MDOF) system under white noise excitations. As a consequence, corresponding Fokker-Planck-Kolmogorov (FPK) equation governing the joint probabilistic density function (PDF) of state variables increases to 4-dimension (4-D). Solution procedure and computer programme become much more sophisticated. The exponential-polynomial closure (EPC) method, widely applied for cases of SDOF systems under white noise excitations, is developed and improved for cases of systems under colored noise excitations and for solving the complex 4-D FPK equation. On the other hand, Monte Carlo simulation (MCS) method is performed to test the approximate EPC solutions. Two examples associated with Gaussian and non-Gaussian colored noise excitations are considered. Corresponding band-limited power spectral densities (PSDs) for colored noise excitations are separately given. Numerical studies show that the developed EPC method provides relatively accurate estimates of the stationary probabilistic solutions. Moreover, statistical parameter of mean-up crossing rate (MCR) is taken into account, which is important for reliability and failure analysis.

Keywords: filtered noise, narrow-banded noise, nonlinear dynamic, random vibration

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Authors: Shih Yu Pan, Pao Chen Hung, Chuan Yao Lin, Charles C.-K. Chou, Yu Chi Lin, Kai Hsien Chi

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This study analyzed 16 atmospheric PAHs species which were controlled by USEPA and IARC. To measure the concentration of PAHs, four rural sampling sites and two urban sampling sites were selected in Central Taiwan during spring and summer. In central Taiwan, the rural sampling stations were located in the downstream of Da-An River, Da-Jang River, Wu River and Chuo-shui River. On the other hand, the urban sampling sites were located in Taichung district and close to the roadside. Ambient air samples of both vapor phase and particle phase of PAHs compounds were collected using high volume sampling trains (Analitica). The sampling media were polyurethane foam (PUF) with XAD2 and quartz fiber filters. Diagnostic ratio, Principal component analysis (PCA), Positive Matrix Factorization (PMF) models were used to evaluate the apportionment of PAHs in the atmosphere and speculate the relative contribution of various emission sources. Because of the high temperature and low wind speed, high PAHs concentration in the atmosphere was observed. The total PAHs concentration, especially in vapor phase, had significant change during summer. During the sampling periods the total PAHs concentration of atmospheric at four rural and two urban sampling sites in spring and summer were 3.70±0.40 ng/m3,3.40±0.63 ng/m3,5.22±1.24 ng/m3,7.23±0.37 ng/m3,7.46±2.36 ng/m3,6.21±0.55 ng/m3　; 15.0± 0.14 ng/m3,18.8±8.05 ng/m3,20.2±8.58 ng/m3,16.1±3.75 ng/m3,29.8±10.4 ng/m3,35.3±11.8 ng/m3, respectively. In order to identify PAHs sources, we used diagnostic ratio to classify the emission sources. The potential sources were diesel combustion and gasoline combustion in spring and summer, respectively. According to the principal component analysis (PCA), the PC1 and PC2 had 23.8%, 20.4% variance and 21.3%, 17.1% variance in spring and summer, respectively. Especially high molecular weight PAHs (BaP, IND, BghiP, Flu, Phe, Flt, Pyr) were dominated in spring when low molecular weight PAHs (AcPy, Ant, Acp, Flu) because of the dominating high temperatures were dominated in the summer. Analysis by using PMF model found the sources of PAHs in spring were stationary sources (34%), vehicle emissions (24%), coal combustion (23%) and petrochemical fuel gas (19%), while in summer the emission sources were petrochemical fuel gas (34%), the natural environment of volatile organic compounds (29%), coal combustion (19%) and stationary sources (18%).

Keywords: PAHs, source identification, diagnostic ratio, principal component analysis, positive matrix factorization

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Authors: Mónica P. Cala, Juan S. Carreño, Roland J.W. Meesters

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Recently, collection of biological fluids on special filter papers has become a popular micro-sampling technique. Especially, the dried blood spot (DBS) micro-sampling technique has gained much attention and is momently applied in various life sciences reserach areas. As a result of this popularity, DBS are not only intensively competing with the venous blood sampling method but are at this moment widely applied in numerous bioanalytical assays. In particular, in the screening of inherited metabolic diseases, pharmacokinetic modeling and in therapeutic drug monitoring. Recently, microsampling techniques were also introduced in “omics” areas, whereunder metabolomics. For a metabolic profiling study we applied micro-sampling of biological fluids (blood and plasma) from healthy controls and from women with breast cancer. From blood samples, dried blood and plasma samples were prepared by spotting 8uL sample onto pre-cutted 5-mm paper disks followed by drying of the disks for 100 minutes. Dried disks were then extracted by 100 uL of methanol. From liquid blood and plasma samples 40 uL were deproteinized with methanol followed by centrifugation and collection of supernatants. Supernatants and extracts were evaporated until dryness by nitrogen gas and residues derivated by O-methyxyamine and MSTFA. As internal standard C17:0-methylester in heptane (10 ppm) was used. Deconvolution and alignment of and full scan (m/z 50-500) MS data were done by AMDIS and SpectConnect (http://spectconnect.mit.edu) software, respectively. Statistical Data analysis was done by Principal Component Analysis (PCA) using R software. The results obtained from our preliminary study indicate that the use of dried blood/plasma on paper disks could be a powerful new tool in metabolic profiling. Many of the metabolites observed in plasma (liquid/dried) were also positively identified in whole blood samples (liquid/dried). Whole blood could be a potential substitute matrix for plasma in Metabolomic profiling studies as well also micro-sampling techniques for the collection of samples in clinical studies. It was concluded that the separation of the different sample methodologies (liquid vs. dried) as observed by PCA was due to different sample treatment protocols applied. More experiments need to be done to confirm obtained observations as well also a more rigorous validation .of these micro-sampling techniques is needed. The novelty of our approach can be found in the application of different biological fluid micro-sampling techniques for metabolic profiling.

Keywords: biofluids, breast cancer, metabolic profiling, micro-sampling

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Authors: Arefeh Arabaninezhad, Ali Fakher

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Since the deterministic analysis methods fail to take system uncertainties into account, probabilistic and non-probabilistic methods are suggested. Geotechnical analyses are used to determine the stress and deformation caused by construction; accordingly, many input variables which depend on ground behavior are required for geotechnical analyses. The Random Set approach is an applicable reliability analysis method when comprehensive sources of information are not available. Using Random Set method, with relatively small number of simulations compared to fully probabilistic methods, smooth extremes on system responses are obtained. Therefore random set approach has been proposed for reliability analysis in geotechnical problems. In the present study, the application of random set method in reliability analysis of deep excavations is investigated through three deep excavation projects which were monitored during the excavating process. A finite element code is utilized for numerical modeling. Two expected ranges, from different sources of information, are established for each input variable, and a specific probability assignment is defined for each range. To determine the most influential input variables and subsequently reducing the number of required finite element calculations, sensitivity analysis is carried out. Input data for finite element model are obtained by combining the upper and lower bounds of the input variables. The relevant probability share of each finite element calculation is determined considering the probability assigned to input variables present in these combinations. Horizontal displacement of the top point of excavation is considered as the main response of the system. The result of reliability analysis for each intended deep excavation is presented by constructing the Belief and Plausibility distribution function (i.e. lower and upper bounds) of system response obtained from deterministic finite element calculations. To evaluate the quality of input variables as well as applied reliability analysis method, the range of displacements extracted from models has been compared to the in situ measurements and good agreement is observed. The comparison also showed that Random Set Finite Element Method applies to estimate the horizontal displacement of the top point of deep excavation. Finally, the probability of failure or unsatisfactory performance of the system is evaluated by comparing the threshold displacement with reliability analysis results.

Keywords: deep excavation, random set finite element method, reliability analysis, uncertainty

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Authors: Ali Jahanfar, Brajesh Dubey, Bahram Gharabaghi, Saber Bayat Movahed

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Ever increasing population growth of major urban centers and environmental challenges in siting new landfills have resulted in a growing trend in design of mega-landfills some with extraordinary heights and dangerously steep slopes. Landfill failure mobility risk analysis is one of the most uncertain types of dynamic rheology models due to very large inherent variabilities in the heterogeneous solid waste material shear strength properties. The waste flow of three historic dumpsite and two landfill failures were back-analyzed using run-out modeling with DAN-W model. The travel distances of the waste flow during landfill failures were calculated approach by taking into account variability in material shear strength properties. The probability distribution function for shear strength properties of the waste material were grouped into four major classed based on waste material compaction (landfills versus dumpsites) and composition (high versus low quantity) of high shear strength waste materials such as wood, metal, plastic, paper and cardboard in the waste. This paper presents a probabilistic method for estimation of the spatial extent of waste avalanches, after a potential landfill failure, to create maps of vulnerability scores to inform property owners and residents of the level of the risk.

Keywords: landfill failure, waste flow, Voellmy rheology, friction coefficient, waste compaction and type

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Authors: Justina I. R. Udotong, Ime R. Udotong, Offiong U. Eka

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The concentrations of heavy metals in sediments of Qua Iboe River Estuary (QIRE) were monitored at four different sampling locations in wet and dry seasons. A preliminary survey to determine the four sampling stations along the river continuum showed that the area spanned between < 0.1% salinity at the control station and 21.5‰ at the fourth station along the river continuum. A preliminary survey to determine the four sampling locations along the river estuary showed variations in salinity and other physicochemical parameters. The estuary was found to be polluted with heavy metals from point and nonpoint sources at varying degrees. Mean values of 7.80 mg/kg, 4.97 mg/kg and 2.80 mg/kg of nickel were obtained for sediment samples from Douglas creek, Qua Iboe and Atlantic sampling locations, respectively in the dry season. The wet season nickel concentrations were however lower. The entire study area was grossly contaminated by iron. At Douglas creek, the concentration of iron in sediment was 9274 ± 9.54 mg/kg while copper, nickel, lead and vanadium were <0.5 mg/kg each as compared to iron. Bioaccumulation was therefore suspected within the study area as values of 31.00 ± 0.79, 36.00 ± 0.10 and 55.00 ± 0.05 mg/kg of zinc were recorded in sediment at Douglas creek, Atlantic and the control sampling locations. The results from this study showed that the source of these heavy metals were from point sources like the corrosion of metal steel pipes from old bridges as well as oily sludge wastes from the Qua Iboe Terminal / tank farm located within the vicinity of the study area.

Keywords: heavy metal, Qua Iboe River estuary, seasonal variations, Sediment

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Authors: Muhammad Nouman Qureshi, Muhammad Hanif

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Adaptive cluster sampling (ACS) is specifically developed for the estimation of highly clumped populations and applied to a wide range of situations like animals of rare and endangered species, uneven minerals, HIV patients and drug users. In this paper, we proposed a generalized semi-exponential estimator with two auxiliary variables under the framework of ACS design. The expressions of approximate bias and mean square error (MSE) of the proposed estimator are derived. Theoretical comparisons of the proposed estimator have been made with existing estimators. A numerical study is conducted on real and artificial populations to demonstrate and compare the efficiencies of the proposed estimator. The results indicate that the proposed generalized semi-exponential estimator performed considerably better than all the adaptive and non-adaptive estimators considered in this paper.

Keywords: auxiliary information, adaptive cluster sampling, clustered populations, Hansen-Hurwitz estimation

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Authors: Sagir M. Yusuf, Chris Baber

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In this paper, we describe how Bayesian inferential reasoning will contributes in obtaining a well-satisfied prediction for Distributed Constraint Optimization Problems (DCOPs) with uncertainties. We also demonstrate how DCOPs could be merged to multi-agent knowledge understand and prediction (i.e. Situation Awareness). The DCOPs functions were merged with Bayesian Belief Network (BBN) in the form of situation, awareness, and utility nodes. We describe how the uncertainties can be represented to the BBN and make an effective prediction using the expectation-maximization algorithm or conjugate gradient descent algorithm. The idea of variable prediction using Bayesian inference may reduce the number of variables in agents’ sampling domain and also allow missing variables estimations. Experiment results proved that the BBN perform compelling predictions with samples containing uncertainties than the perfect samples. That is, Bayesian inference can help in handling uncertainties and dynamism of DCOPs, which is the current issue in the DCOPs community. We show how Bayesian inference could be formalized with Distributed Situation Awareness (DSA) using uncertain and missing agents’ data. The whole framework was tested on multi-UAV mission for forest fire searching. Future work focuses on augmenting existing architecture to deal with dynamic DCOPs algorithms and multi-agent information merging.

Keywords: DCOP, multi-agent reasoning, Bayesian reasoning, swarm intelligence

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Authors: Andrej Golowin, Viktor Denk, Axel Riepe

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Solid fan blades and discs in aero engines are subjected to high combined low and high cycle fatigue loads especially around the contact areas between blade and disc. Therefore, special coatings (e.g. dry film lubricant) and surface treatments (e.g. shot peening or laser shock peening) are applied to increase the strength with respect to combined cyclic fatigue and fretting fatigue, but also to improve damage tolerance capability. The traditional deterministic damage tolerance assessment based on fracture mechanics analysis, which treats service damage as an initial crack, often gives overly conservative results especially in the presence of vibratory stresses. A probabilistic damage tolerance methodology using crack initiation data has been developed for fan discs exposed to relatively high vibratory stresses in cross- and tail-wind conditions at certain resonance speeds for limited time periods. This Monte-Carlo based method uses a damage databank from similar designs, measured vibration levels at typical aircraft operations and wind conditions and experimental crack initiation data derived from testing of artificially damaged specimens with representative surface treatment under combined fatigue conditions. The proposed methodology leads to a more realistic prediction of the minimum damage tolerance life for the most critical locations applicable to modern fan disc designs.

Keywords: combined fatigue, damage tolerance, engine, surface treatment

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Authors: Yanli Qi, Ning Lv, Jing Li

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Sub-Nyquist sampling jamming method (SNSJ) is a well known deception jamming method for inverse synthetic aperture radar (ISAR). However, the anti-decoy of the SNSJ method performs easier since the amplitude of the false-target images are weaker than the real-target image; the false-target images always lag behind the real-target image, and all targets are located in the same cross-range. In order to overcome the drawbacks mentioned above, a simple modulation based on SNSJ (M-SNSJ) is presented in this paper. The method first uses amplitude modulation factor to make the amplitude of the false-target images consistent with the real-target image, then uses the down-range modulation factor and cross-range modulation factor to make the false-target images move freely in down-range and cross-range, respectively, thus the capacity of deception is improved. Finally, the simulation results on the six available combinations of three modulation factors are given to illustrate our conclusion.

Keywords: inverse synthetic aperture radar (ISAR), deceptive jamming, Sub-Nyquist sampling jamming method (SNSJ), modulation based on Sub-Nyquist sampling jamming method (M-SNSJ)

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Authors: Vilasinee Jintalikhitdee, Phusit Phukamchanoad, Sakapas Saengchai

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This research aims to study the level of democratic political culture and the factors that affect the democratic political culture of 5th and 6th graders under the authority of Dusit District Office, Bangkok by using stratified sampling for probability sampling and using purposive sampling for non-probability sampling to collect data toward the distribution of questionnaires to 300 respondents. This covers all of the schools under the authority of Dusit District Office. The researcher analyzed the data by using descriptive statistics which include arithmetic mean, standard deviation, and inferential statistics which are Independent Samples T-test (T-test) and One-Way ANOVA (F-test). The researcher also collected data by interviewing the target groups, and then analyzed the data by the use of descriptive analysis. The result shows that 5th and 6th graders under the authority of Dusit District Office, Bangkok have exposed to democratic political culture at high level in overall. When considering each part, it found out that the part that has highest mean is “the constitutional democratic governmental system is suitable for Thailand” statement. The part with the lowest mean is “corruption (cheat and defraud) is normal in Thai society” statement. The factor that affects democratic political culture is grade levels, occupations of mothers, and attention in news and political movements.

Keywords: democratic, political culture, political movements, democratic governmental system

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Authors: Temiloluwa J. Akinyemi, Denis W. Aheto, Wisdom Akpalu

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Capture fisheries in developing countries provide significant animal protein and directly supports the livelihoods of several communities. However, the misperception of biophysical dynamics owing to a lack of adequate scientific data has contributed to the suboptimal management in marine capture fisheries. This is because yield and catch potentials are sensitive to the quality of catch and effort data. Yet, studies on fisheries data collection practices in developing countries are hard to find. This study investigates the data collection methods utilized by fisheries technical officers within the four fishing regions of Ghana. We found that the officers employed data collection and sampling procedures which were not consistent with the technical guidelines curated by FAO. For example, 50 instead of 166 landing sites were sampled, while 290 instead of 372 canoes were sampled. We argue that such sampling errors could result in the over-capitalization of capture fish stocks and significant losses in resource rents.

Keywords: Fisheries data quality, fisheries management, Ghana, Sustainable Fisheries

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Authors: Faroojan Khajeek Sisak Siakian, Aayda Dikran Abdulahad

Abstract:

The Peris Mountain is one of the main mountains in the Iraqi Kurdistan Region, it forms one of the long anticlines trending almost East – West. The exposed formations on the top of the mountain are Bekhme, and Shiranish, with carbonate rocks of different types and thicknesses. We selected the site for sampling to be relevant for a quarry taking into consideration the thickness of the exposed rocks, no overburden, favorable quarrying faces, hardness of the rocks, bedding nature, good extension of the outcrops, and a favorable place for construction of a cement plant. We sampled the exposed rocks on the top of the mountain where a road crosses the mountain, and a total of 15 samples were collected. The distance between sampling intervals was 5 m, and each sample was collected to represent the sampling interval. The samples were subjected to X-ray fluorescence spectroscopy (XRF) to indicate the main oxides percentages in each sample. The acquired results showed the studied rocks can be used in the cement industry.

Keywords: limestone, quarry, CaO, MgO, overburden

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Authors: Bowei Yuan, Shi Li, Liuyang Song, Huaqing Wang, Lingli Cui

Abstract:

Convolutional neural networks (CNN) have received extensive attention in the field of fault diagnosis. Many fault diagnosis methods use CNN for fault type identification. However, when the amount of raw data collected by sensors is massive, the neural network needs to perform a time-consuming classification task. In this paper, a mechanical fault diagnosis method based on vibration signal down-sampling and the improved one-dimensional convolutional neural network is proposed. Through the robust principal component analysis, the low-rank feature matrix of a large amount of raw data can be separated, and then down-sampling is realized to reduce the subsequent calculation amount. In the improved one-dimensional CNN, a smaller convolution kernel is used to reduce the number of parameters and computational complexity, and regularization is introduced before the fully connected layer to prevent overfitting. In addition, the multi-connected layers can better generalize classification results without cumbersome parameter adjustments. The effectiveness of the method is verified by monitoring the signal of the centrifugal pump test bench, and the average test accuracy is above 98%. When compared with the traditional deep belief network (DBN) and support vector machine (SVM) methods, this method has better performance.

Keywords: fault diagnosis, vibration signal down-sampling, 1D-CNN

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Authors: Samir Chawdhury, Guido Morgenthal

Abstract:

The paper presents a novel extension of Vortex Particle Methods (VPM) where the study aims to reproduce a template simulation of complex flow field that is generated from impulsively started flow past an upstream bluff body at certain Reynolds number Re-Vibration of a structural system under upstream wake flow is often considered its governing design criteria. Therefore, the attention is given in this study especially for the reproduction of wake flow simulation. The basic methodology for the implementation of the flow reproduction requires the downstream velocity sampling from the template flow simulation; therefore, at particular distances from the upstream section the instantaneous velocity components are sampled using a series of square sampling-cells arranged vertically where each of the cell contains four velocity sampling points at its corner. Since the grid free Lagrangian VPM algorithm discretises vorticity on particle elements, the method requires transformation of the velocity components into vortex circulation, and finally the simulation of the reproduction of the template flow field by seeding these vortex circulations or particles into a free stream flow. It is noteworthy that the vortex particles have to be released into the free stream exactly at same rate of velocity sampling. Studies have been done, specifically, in terms of different sampling rates and velocity sampling positions to find their effects on flow reproduction quality. The quality assessments are mainly done, using a downstream flow monitoring profile, by comparing the characteristic wind flow profiles using several statistical turbulence measures. Additionally, the comparisons are performed using velocity time histories, snapshots of the flow fields, and the vibration of a downstream bluff section by performing wake buffeting analyses of the section under the original and reproduced wake flows. Convergence study is performed for the validation of the method. The study also describes the possibilities how to achieve flow reproductions with less computational effort.

Keywords: vortex particle method, wake flow, flow reproduction, wake buffeting analysis

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Authors: Yuqing Chen, Ying Xu, Renfa Li

Abstract:

The development of matrix completion theory provides new approaches for data gathering in Wireless Sensor Networks (WSN). The existing matrix completion algorithms for WSN mainly consider how to reduce the sampling number without considering the real-time performance when recovering the data matrix. In order to guarantee the recovery accuracy and reduce the recovery time consumed simultaneously, we propose a new ALM algorithm to recover the weather monitoring data. A lot of experiments have been carried out to investigate the performance of the proposed ALM algorithm by using different parameter settings, different sampling rates and sampling models. In addition, we compare the proposed ALM algorithm with some existing algorithms in the literature. Experimental results show that the ALM algorithm can obtain better overall recovery accuracy with less computing time, which demonstrate that the ALM algorithm is an effective and efficient approach for recovering the real world weather monitoring data in WSN.

Keywords: wireless sensor network, matrix completion, singular value thresholding, augmented Lagrange multiplier

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Authors: U. Datta

Abstract:

The main objective of this study is to find a suitable approach to monitor the land infrastructure growth over a period of time using multispectral satellite images. Bi-temporal change detection method is unable to indicate the continuous change occurring over a long period of time. To achieve this objective, the approach used here estimates a statistical model from series of multispectral image data over a long period of time, assuming there is no considerable change during that time period and then compare it with the multispectral image data obtained at a later time. The change is estimated pixel-wise. Statistical composite hypothesis technique is used for estimating pixel based change detection in a defined region. The generalized likelihood ratio test (GLRT) is used to detect the changed pixel from probabilistic estimated model of the corresponding pixel. The changed pixel is detected assuming that the images have been co-registered prior to estimation. To minimize error due to co-registration, 8-neighborhood pixels around the pixel under test are also considered. The multispectral images from Sentinel-2 and Landsat-8 from 2015 to 2018 are used for this purpose. There are different challenges in this method. First and foremost challenge is to get quite a large number of datasets for multivariate distribution modelling. A large number of images are always discarded due to cloud coverage. Due to imperfect modelling there will be high probability of false alarm. Overall conclusion that can be drawn from this work is that the probabilistic method described in this paper has given some promising results, which need to be pursued further.

Keywords: co-registration, GLRT, infrastructure growth, multispectral, multitemporal, pixel-based change detection

Procedia PDF Downloads 109