Search results for: probabilistic reasoning

Authors: Kulsoom S. Bughio, Naeem K. Janjua, Gordana Dermody, Leslie F. Sikos, Shamsul Islam

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The advancement in information and communication technologies (ICT) and wireless sensor networks have played a pivotal role in the design and development of real-time healthcare solutions, mainly targeting the elderly living in health-assistive smart homes. Such smart homes are equipped with sensor technologies to detect and record activities of daily living (ADL). This survey reviews and evaluates existing approaches and techniques based on real-time sensor-based modeling and reasoning in single-user and multi-user environments. It classifies the approaches into three main categories: learning-based, knowledge-based, and hybrid, and evaluates how they handle temporal relations, granularity, and uncertainty. The survey also highlights open challenges across various disciplines (including computer and information sciences and health sciences) to encourage interdisciplinary research for the detection and recognition of ADLs and discusses future directions.

Keywords: daily living activities, smart homes, single-user environment, multi-user environment

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Authors: Aakansha Gupta, Neha Vadnere, Tapasvi Soni, M. Anbarsi

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Protein secondary structure prediction is one of the most important goals pursued by bioinformatics and theoretical chemistry; it is highly important in medicine and biotechnology. Some aspects of protein functions and genome analysis can be predicted by secondary structure prediction. This is used to help annotate sequences, classify proteins, identify domains, and recognize functional motifs. In this paper, we represent protein secondary structure as a mathematical model. To extract and predict the protein secondary structure from the primary structure, we require a set of parameters. Any constants appearing in the model are specified by these parameters, which also provide a mechanism for efficient and accurate use of data. To estimate these model parameters there are many algorithms out of which the most popular one is the EM algorithm or called the Expectation Maximization Algorithm. These model parameters are estimated with the use of protein datasets like RS126 by using the Bayesian Probabilistic method (data set being categorical). This paper can then be extended into comparing the efficiency of EM algorithm to the other algorithms for estimating the model parameters, which will in turn lead to an efficient component for the Protein Secondary Structure Prediction. Further this paper provides a scope to use these parameters for predicting secondary structure of proteins using machine learning techniques like neural networks and fuzzy logic. The ultimate objective will be to obtain greater accuracy better than the previously achieved.

Keywords: model parameters, expectation maximization algorithm, protein secondary structure prediction, bioinformatics

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Authors: Maira Farooq Maneka

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Death has increasingly caused humans to investigate its reality and what lies after it, if something at all, with personal conviction and concern. Till date it remains a matter of speculation. We do not encounter arguments other than ‘faith’ from major world religions when justifying claims about life after death (LAD) as it is an unseen phenomenon. This paper attempts to analyse the Islamic idea of resurrection (after death) and its justification that is distinct from faith but instead contemplative in nature. To do this a legal lens was adopted which allowed the categorisation of selected Quranic arguments under the heading of direct evidence, indirect evidence and intuitive reasoning. Results: Four kinds of direct evidences are discussed under the themes of sleep, droughts, predictions and Quranic challenge. The section of indirect evidences narrows its scope only to two, out of many, broad possible signs that pointed towards the reality of resurrection. These include the signs found in nature such as sun and water as well as signs one finds within the human body such as the creation and function of human fingertips. Finally the last section tries to amalgamate Quran’s appeal to human rationality that facilitates the reader in accepting the possibility of resurrection and hence a final Day of Judgement. These include the notion of accountability, pleasure, pain and human agency.

Keywords: Islam, life after death, Quran, resurrection

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Authors: Sai Sudarshan, Harsh Vyas, Riddhiman Sherlekar

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The oil and gas industry has been unwilling to adopt stochastic definition of reserves. Nevertheless, Monte Carlo simulation methods have gained acceptance by engineers, geoscientists and other professionals who want to evaluate prospects or otherwise analyze problems that involve uncertainty. One of the common applications of Monte Carlo simulation is the estimation of recoverable hydrocarbon from a reservoir.Monte Carlo Simulation makes use of random samples of parameters or inputs to explore the behavior of a complex system or process. It finds application whenever one needs to make an estimate, forecast or decision where there is significant uncertainty. First, the project focuses on performing Monte-Carlo Simulation on a given data set using U. S Department of Energy’s MonteCarlo Software, which is a freeware e&p tool. Further, an algorithm for simulation has been developed for MATLAB and program performs simulation by prompting user for input distributions and parameters associated with each distribution (i.e. mean, st.dev, min., max., most likely, etc.). It also prompts user for desired probability for which reserves are to be calculated. The algorithm so developed and tested in MATLAB further finds implementation in Python where existing libraries on statistics and graph plotting have been imported to generate better outcome. With PyQt designer, codes for a simple graphical user interface have also been written. The graph so plotted is then validated with already available results from U.S DOE MonteCarlo Software.

Keywords: simulation, probability, confidence interval, sensitivity analysis

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Authors: F. Ismael Roman Moreno, Francisca Alba Sanchez

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Over time, the plant landscape has changed as a result of the numerous events on a global and local scale that have happened. This is the case of the Mediterranean ecosystems, one of the most complex and rich in endemisms on the planet, subjected to anthropic pressures from the beginning of civilizations. The intervention in these systems together with climate changes has led to changes in diversity, tree cover, shrub, and ultimately in the structure and functioning of these ecosystems. Paleopalinology is used as a tool for analysis of pollen and non-pollen microfossils preserved in the flooded grasslands of the Middle Atlas (Morocco). This allows reconstructing the evolution of vegetation and climate, as well as providing data and reasoning to different ecological, cultural and historical processes. Although climatic and anthropic events are well documented in Europe, they are not so well documented in North Africa, which gives added value to the study area. The results obtained serve to predict the behavior and evolution of Mediterranean mountain ecosystems during the Holocene, their response to future changes, resilience, and recovery from climatic and anthropic disturbances. In the stratigraphic series analyzed, nine major events were detected, eight of which appeared to be of climatic and anthropic origin, and one unexpected, related to volcanic activity.

Keywords: anthropic, Holocene, Morocco, paleopalynology, resilience

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Authors: Chau-Kuang Chen, John Hughes, Jr., A. Dexter Samuels

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The prediction models for the United States Medical Licensure Examination (USMLE) Steps 1 and 2 performances were constructed by the Monte Carlo simulation modeling approach via linear regression. The purpose of this study was to build robust simulation models to accurately identify the most important predictors and yield the valid range estimations of the Steps 1 and 2 scores. The application of simulation modeling approach was deemed an effective way in predicting student performances on licensure examinations. Also, sensitivity analysis (a/k/a what-if analysis) in the simulation models was used to predict the magnitudes of Steps 1 and 2 affected by changes in the National Board of Medical Examiners (NBME) Basic Science Subject Board scores. In addition, the study results indicated that the Medical College Admission Test (MCAT) Verbal Reasoning score and Step 1 score were significant predictors of the Step 2 performance. Hence, institutions could screen qualified student applicants for interviews and document the effectiveness of basic science education program based on the simulation results.

Keywords: prediction model, sensitivity analysis, simulation method, USMLE

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Authors: Rafi Ullah, Shah Muhammad Emaduddin, Taha Jilani

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Vehicle Adhoc Networks (VANET) belongs to a special class of Mobile Adhoc Network (MANET) with high mobility. Network is created by road side vehicles equipped with communication devices like GPS and Wifi etc. Since the environment is highly dynamic due to difference in speed and high mobility of vehicles and weak stability of the network connection, it is a challenging task to design an efficient routing protocol for such an unstable environment. Our proposed algorithm uses heuristic for the calculation of optimal path for routing the packet efficiently in collaboration with several other parameters like geographical location, speed, priority, the distance among the vehicles, communication range, and networks congestion. We have incorporated probabilistic, heuristic and machine learning based approach inconsistency with the relay function of the memory buffer to keep the packet moving towards the destination. These parameters when used in collaboration provide us a very strong and admissible heuristics. We have mathematically proved that the proposed technique is efficient for the routing of packets, especially in a medical emergency situation. These networks can be used for medical emergency, security, entertainment and routing purposes.

Keywords: heuristics routing, intelligent routing, VANET, route optimization

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Authors: Orhun Aydin, Mark V. Janikas, Rodrigo Alves, Renato Assuncao

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In this paper, a tree-based perturbation methodology for regionalization inference is presented. Regionalization is a constrained optimization problem that aims to create groups with similar attributes while satisfying spatial contiguity constraints. Similar to any constrained optimization problem, the spatial constraint may hinder convergence to some global minima, resulting in spatially contiguous members of a group with dissimilar attributes. This paper presents a general methodology for rigorously perturbing spatial constraints through the use of random spanning trees. The general framework presented can be used to quantify the effect of the spatial constraints in the overall regionalization result. We compare several types of stochastic spanning trees used in inference problems such as fuzzy regionalization and determining the number of regions. Performance of stochastic spanning trees is juxtaposed against the traditional permutation-based hypothesis testing frequently used in spatial statistics. Inference results for fuzzy regionalization and determining the number of regions is presented on the Local Area Personal Incomes for Texas Counties provided by the Bureau of Economic Analysis.

Keywords: regionalization, constrained clustering, probabilistic inference, fuzzy clustering

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Authors: Nihat Dipova, Bulent Cangir

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This article presents the results of probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) for Antalya (SW Turkey). South west of Turkey is characterized by large earthquakes resulting from the continental collision between the African, Arabian and Eurasian plates and crustal faults. Earthquakes around the study area are grouped into two; crustal earthquakes (D=0-50 km) and subduction zone earthquakes (50-140 km). Maximum observed magnitude of subduction earthquakes is Mw=6.0. Maximum magnitude of crustal earthquakes is Mw=6.6. Sources for crustal earthquakes are faults which are related with Isparta Angle and Cyprus Arc tectonic structures. A new earthquake catalogue for Antalya, with unified moment magnitude scale has been prepared and seismicity of the area around Antalya city has been evaluated by defining ‘a’ and ‘b’ parameters of the Gutenberg-Richter recurrence relationship. The Standard Cornell-McGuire method has been used for hazard computation utilizing CRISIS2007 software. Attenuation relationships proposed by Chiou and Youngs (2008) has been used for 0-50 km earthquakes and Youngs et. al (1997) for deep subduction earthquakes. Finally, Seismic hazard map for peak horizontal acceleration on a uniform site condition of firm rock (average shear wave velocity of about 1130 m/s) at a hazard level of 10% probability of exceedance in 50 years has been prepared.

Keywords: Antalya, peak ground acceleration, seismic hazard assessment, subduction

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Authors: Dana Aljadaa, Hasim Altan

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Japan’s strategy is based on improving the current resources and productivity by identifying the environmental challenges to progress further in many areas. For example, it will help in understanding the competitive challenges in the industry, emerging innovation, and other progresses. The present study seeks to examine the characteristics of sustainable practices using materials that will last longer and following environmental policies. There has been a major emphasis since 1990s and onwards about recycling and preserving the environment. Furthermore, the present paper analyses and argues how national interest in policy increases resource productivity. It is a universal law, but these actions may be different based on the unique situation of the country. In addition, the present study explains some of the strategies developed by the Environmental Agency of Japan in the last few years. There are a few resources reviewed involving ‘Strategy for an Environmental Nation in the 21st Century’ from 2001, ‘Clean Asia Initiative’ from 2008, and ‘New Growth Strategy’ from 2010. The present paper also highlights the emphasis on increasing efficiency, as it is an important part of sustainability. We finally conclude by providing reasoning on the impact and positivity of reducing production and consumption on the environment, resulting in a productive and progressive Japan for the near and long term future.

Keywords: eco-system, resource productivity, sound material-cycle, sustainable development

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Authors: Nina N. Serdar, Jelena R. Pejović

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This paper presents seismic risk assessment of two bridge structure, based on the probabilistic performance-based seismic assessment methodology. Both investigated bridges are tree span continuous RC curved bridges with the difference in column shapes. First bridge (type A) has a wall-type pier and second (type B) has a two-column bent with circular columns. Bridges are designed according to European standards: EN 1991-2, EN1992-1-1 and EN 1998-2. Aim of the performed analysis is to compare seismic behavior of these two structures and to detect the influence of column shapes on the seismic response. Seismic risk assessment is carried out by obtaining demand fragility curves. Non-linear model was constructed and time-history analysis was performed using thirty five pairs of horizontal ground motions selected to match site specific hazard. In performance based analysis, peak column drift ratio (CDR) was selected as engineering demand parameter (EDP). For seismic intensity measure (IM) spectral displacement was selected. Demand fragility curves that give probability of exceedance of certain value for chosen EDP were constructed and based on them conclusions were made.

Keywords: RC curved bridge, demand fragility curve, wall type column, nonlinear time-history analysis, circular column

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Authors: Komeil Valipourian

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Urban advances and the growing need for developing infrastructures has increased the importance of deep excavations. In this study, after the introducing probability analysis as an important issue, an attempt has been made to apply it for the deep excavation project of Bangkok’s Metro as a case study. For this, the numerical probability model has been developed based on the Finite Difference Method and Monte Carlo sampling approach. The results indicate that disregarding the issue of probability in this project will result in an inappropriate design of the retaining structure. Therefore, probabilistic redesign of the support is proposed and carried out as one of the applications of probability analysis. A 50% reduction in the flexural strength of the structure increases the failure probability just by 8% in the allowable range and helps improve economic conditions, while maintaining mechanical efficiency. With regard to the lack of efficient design in most deep excavations, by considering geometrical and geotechnical variability, an attempt was made to develop an optimum practical design standard for deep excavations based on failure probability. On this basis, a practical relationship is presented for estimating the maximum allowable horizontal displacement, which can help improve design conditions without developing the probability analysis.

Keywords: numerical probability modeling, deep excavation, allowable maximum displacement, finite difference method (FDM)

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Authors: Malo Pocheau-Lesteven, Olivier Le Maître

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Engineering and optimisation of complex systems is often achieved through multi-disciplinary analysis of the system, where each subsystem is modeled and interacts with other subsystems to model the complete system. The coherence of the output of the different sub-systems is achieved through the use of compatibility constraints, which enforce the coupling between the different subsystems. Due to the complexity of some sub-systems and the computational cost of evaluating their respective models, it is often necessary to build surrogate models of these subsystems to allow repeated evaluation these subsystems at a relatively low computational cost. In this paper, gaussian processes are used, as their probabilistic nature is leveraged to evaluate the likelihood of satisfying the compatibility constraints. This paper presents infilling strategies to build accurate surrogate models of the subsystems in areas where they are likely to meet the compatibility constraint. It is shown that these infilling strategies can reduce the computational cost of building surrogate models for a given level of accuracy. An application of these methods to velocity prediction programs used in offshore racing naval architecture further demonstrates these method's applicability in a real engineering context. Also, some examples of the application of uncertainty quantification to field of naval architecture are presented.

Keywords: infilling strategy, gaussian process, multi disciplinary analysis, velocity prediction program

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Authors: Harsh Sadawarti, Kamal Malik

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Humans are the unique and the most powerful creature on this planet just because of the high level of intelligence gifted by nature. Computational Intelligence is highly influenced by the term natural intelligence, neurosciences and mathematics. To deal with the in-depth study of computational intelligence and to utilize it in real-life applications, it is quite important to understand its simulation with the human brain. In this paper, the three important parts, Frontal Lobe, Occipital Lobe and Parietal Lobe of the human brain, are compared with the ANN(Artificial Neural Network), CNN(Convolutional Neural network), and RNN(Recurrent Neural Network), respectively. Intelligent computational systems are created by combining deductive reasoning, logical concepts and high-level algorithms with the simulation and study of the human brain. Human brain is a combination of Physiology, Psychology, emotions, calculations and many other parameters which are of utmost importance that determines the overall intelligence. To create intelligent algorithms, smart machines and to simulate the human brain in an effective manner, it is quite important to have an insight into the human brain and the basic concepts of biological neurosciences.

Keywords: computational intelligence, neurosciences, convolutional neural network, recurrent neural network, artificial neural network, frontal lobe, occipital lobe, parietal lobe

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Authors: F. Ruiz-Fuster

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Arnold’s redefinition of human motives can sustain a psychology of education which emphasizes the beauty of knowledge and the exercise of intellectual functions. Thus, education instead of focusing on skills and learning by doing would be centered on ‘the widest reaches of the human spirit’. One way to attain it is by developing children’s inherent interest. Arnold takes into account the fact that the desire to know is the inherent interest which leads students to explore and learn. She also emphasizes the need of exercising human functions as thinking, judging and reasoning. According to Arnold, the influence of psychological theories of motivation in education has derived in considering that all learning and school tasks should derive from children’s needs and impulses. The desire to know and the curiosity have not been considered as basic and active as any instinctive drive or basic need, so there has been an attempt to justify and understand how biological drives guide student’s learning. However, understanding motives and motivation not as a drive, an instinct or an impulse guided by our basic needs, but as a want that leads to action can help to understand, from a psychological perspective, how teachers can motivate students to learn, strengthening their desire and interest to reason and discover the whole new world of knowledge.

Keywords: academic motivation, interests, desire to know, educational psychology, intellectual functions

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Authors: Al Karim Datoo

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Abstract— The presentation argues for an urgent case to center and integrate critical sociology in enriching potency of educational thought and practice to counteract inequalities and social injustices. COVID phenomenon has starkly exposed burgeoning of social-economic inequalities and widening marginalities which have been historically and politically constructed through deep-seated social and power imbalances and injustices in the world. What potent role could education possibly play to combat these issues? A point of departure for this paper highlights increasing reductionist and exclusionary ‘mind-set’ of education that has been developed through trends in education such as: the commodification of knowledge, standardisation, homogenization, and reification which are products of the positivist ideology of knowledge coopted to serve capitalist interests. To redress these issues of de-contextualization and de-humanization of education, it is emphasized that there is an urgent need to center the role of interpretive and critical epistemologies and pedagogies of social sciences. In this regard, notions of problem-posing versus problem-solving, generative themes, instrumental versus emancipatory reasoning will be discussed. The presentation will conclude by illustrating the pedagogic utility of these critically oriented notions to counteract the social reproduction of exclusionary and inequality in and through education.

Keywords: Critical pedagogy, social justice, inclusion , education

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Authors: Ioan Corneliu Salisteanu, Valentin Dogaru Ulieru, Mihaita Nicolae Ardeleanu, Alin Pohoata, Bogdan Salisteanu, Stefan Broscareanu

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Creating a personalized statistic for an individual within the population using IT systems, based on the searches and intercepted spheres of interest they manifest, is just one 'atom' of the artificial intelligence analysis network. However, having the ability to generate statistics based on individual data intercepted from large demographic areas leads to reasoning like that issued by a human mind with global strategic ambitions. The DiaMOTO device is a technical sensory system that allows the interception of car events caused by a driver, positioning them in time and space. The device's connection to the vehicle allows the creation of a source of data whose analysis can create psychological, behavioural profiles of the drivers involved. The SiaMOTO system collects data from many vehicles equipped with DiaMOTO, driven by many different drivers with a unique fingerprint in their approach to driving. In this paper, we aimed to explain the software infrastructure of the SiaMOTO system, a system designed to monitor and improve driver driving behaviour, as well as the criteria and algorithms underlying the intelligent analysis process.

Keywords: artificial intelligence, data processing, driver behaviour, driver monitoring, SiaMOTO

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Authors: Agatha Padma Laksitaningtyas, Sumiyati Gunawan

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Mataram Irrigation Canal has 31,2 km length, is the main irrigation canal in Special Region Province of Yogyakarta, connecting Progo River on the west side and Opak River on the east side. It has an important role as the main water carrier distribution for various purposes such as agriculture, fishery, and plantation which should be free from sediment material. Bed Load Sediment is the basic sediment that will make the sediment process on the irrigation canal. Sediment process is a simultaneous event that can make deposition sediment at the base of irrigation canal and can make the height of elevation water change, it will affect the availability of water to be used for irrigation functions. To predict the amount of drowning sediments in the irrigation canal using two methods: Meyer-Peter and Muller’s Method which is an energy approach method and Einstein Method which is a probabilistic approach. Speed measurement using floating method and using current meters. The channel geometry is measured directly in the field. The basic sediment of the channel is taken in the field by taking three samples from three different points. The result of the research shows that by using the formula Meyer -Peter Muller get the result of 60,75799 kg/s, whereas with Einsten’s Method get result of 13,06461 kg/s. the results may serve as a reference for dredging the sediments on the channel so as not to disrupt the flow of water in irrigation canal.

Keywords: bed load, sediment, irrigation, Mataram canal

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Authors: Carlos Gordon, Patricio Encalada, Henry Lema, Diego Leon, Dennis Chicaiza

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The following work presents a proposal of autonomous navigation of mobile robots implemented in an omnidirectional robot Kuka Youbot. We have been able to perform the integration of robotic operative system (ROS) and machine learning algorithms. ROS mainly provides two distributions; ROS hydro and ROS Kinect. ROS hydro allows managing the nodes of odometry, kinematics, and path planning with statistical and probabilistic, global and local algorithms based on Adaptive Monte Carlo Localization (AMCL) and Dijkstra. Meanwhile, ROS Kinect is responsible for the detection block of dynamic objects which can be in the points of the planned trajectory obstructing the path of Kuka Youbot. The detection is managed by artificial vision module under a trained neural network based on the single shot multibox detector system (SSD), where the main dynamic objects for detection are human beings and domestic animals among other objects. When the objects are detected, the system modifies the trajectory or wait for the decision of the dynamic obstacle. Finally, the obstacles are skipped from the planned trajectory, and the Kuka Youbot can reach its goal thanks to the machine learning algorithms.

Keywords: autonomous navigation, machine learning, path planning, robotic operative system, open source computer vision library

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Authors: B. Shukir, L. Szivos, D. Kis, P. Barzo

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Glioblastoma is the most malignant brain tumor. In general, the survival rate varies between (14-18) months. Glioblastoma consists a solid and infiltrative part. The standard therapeutic management of glioblastoma is maximum safe resection followed by chemo-radiotherapy. It’s hypothesized that the pretumoral hyperintense region in fluid attenuated inversion recovery (FLAIR) images includes both vasogenic edema and infiltrated tumor cells. In our study, we aimed to define the sensitivity and specificity of hyperintense FLAIR images preoperatively to examine how well it can define the true extent of glioblastoma. (16) glioblastoma patients included in this study. Hyperintense FLAIR region were delineated preoperatively as tumor mask. The infiltrative part of glioblastoma considered the regions where the tumor recurred on the follow up MRI. The recurrence on the CE-T1 images was marked as the recurrence masks. According to (AAL3) and (JHU white matter labels) atlas, the brain divided into cortical and subcortical regions respectively. For calculating specificity and sensitivity, the FLAIR and the recurrence masks overlapped counting how many regions affected by both . The average sensitivity and specificity was 83% and 85% respectively. Individually, the sensitivity and specificity varied between (31-100)%, and (100-58)% respectively. These results suggest that despite FLAIR being as an effective radiologic imaging tool its prognostic value remains controversial and probabilistic tractography remain more reliable available method for identifying the true extent of glioblastoma.

Keywords: brain tumors, glioblastoma, MRI, FLAIR

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Authors: Panwasn Mahalawalert

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The purposes of this research were analyzed differential item functioning and differential test functioning of SWUSAT aptitude test classification by sex variable. The data used in this research is the secondary data from Srinakharinwirot University Scholastic Aptitude Test 2013 (SWUSAT). SWUSAT test consists of four subjects. There are verbal ability test, number ability test, reasoning ability test and spatial ability test. The data analysis was analyzed in 2 steps. The first step was analyzing descriptive statistics. In the second step were analyzed differential item functioning (DIF) and differential test functioning (DTF) by using the DIFAS program. The research results were as follows: The results of DIF and DTF analysis for all 10 tests in year 2013. Gender was the characteristic that found DIF all 10 tests. The percentage of item number that found DIF is between 6.67% - 60%. There are 5 tests that most of items favors female group and 2 tests that most of items favors male group. There are 3 tests that the number of items favors female group equal favors male group. For Differential test functioning (DTF), there are 8 tests that have small level.

Keywords: aptitude test, differential item functioning, differential test functioning, educational measurement

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Authors: Ruangdech Sirikit

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The purposes of this study were analyzed differential item functioning and differential test functioning of SWUSAT aptitude test classification by sex variable. The data used in this research is the secondary data from Srinakharinwirot University Scholastic Aptitude Test 2011 (SWUSAT 2011) SWUSAT test consists of four subjects. There are verbal ability test, number ability test, reasoning ability test and spatial ability test. The data analysis was carried out in 2 steps. The first step was analyzing descriptive statistics. In the second step were analyzed differential item functioning (DIF) and differential test functioning (DTF) by using the DIFAS program. The research results were as follows: The results of data analysis for all 10 tests in year 2011. Sex was the characteristic that found DIF all 10 tests. The percentage of item number that found DIF was between 10% - 46.67%. There are 4 tests that most of items favors female group. There are 3 tests that most of items favors male group and there are 3 tests that the number of items favors female group equal favors male group. For Differential test functioning (DTF), there are 8 tests that have small DIF effect variance.

Keywords: differential item functioning, differential test functioning, SWUSAT, aptitude test

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Authors: Arpita Saha, Satish Chandra, Indrajit Ghosh

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Delay implicates the time loss of a traveler while crossing an intersection. Efficiency of traffic operation at signalized intersections is assessed in terms of delay caused to an individual vehicle. Highway Capacity Manual (HCM) method and Webster’s method are the most widely used in India for delay estimation purpose. However, in India, traffic is highly heterogeneous in nature with extremely poor lane discipline. Therefore, to explore best delay estimation technique for Indian condition, a comparison was made. In this study, seven signalized intersections from three different cities where chosen. Data was collected for both during morning and evening peak hours. Only under saturated cycles were considered for this study. Delay was estimated based on the field data. With the help of Simpson’s 1/3 rd rule, delay of under saturated cycles was estimated by measuring the area under the curve of queue length and cycle time. Moreover, the field observed delay was compared with the delay estimated using HCM, Webster, Probabilistic, Taylor’s expansion and Regression methods. The drawbacks of the existing delay estimation methods to be use in Indian heterogeneous traffic conditions were figured out, and best method was proposed. It was observed that direct estimation of delay using field measured data is more accurate than existing conventional and modified methods.

Keywords: delay estimation technique, field delay, heterogeneous traffic, signalised intersection

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Authors: Naor Cohen

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In recent years, business schools made teaching ethical leadership a higher priority. Greater attention to moral and ethical concepts and reasoning processes may prove beneficial to future business leaders. But with a shift in focus, there is a need for a shift in pedagogy. This paper explores an imaginative literature-based pedagogy in the teaching of ethical leadership. An imaginative literature-based pedagogy uses works of fiction to help students build moral analysis and moral judgment capabilities through a rigorous assessment of the moral soundness of actions, motivations, rationales, and consequences portrayed in works of fiction. Business students enrolled in 4 leadership senior-level courses were assigned the White Tiger: A Novel by Aravind Adiga as their main course reading. Students' engagement was measured as a three-factor construct exploring cognitive engagement, behavioural engagement and emotional engagement. In addition, students' final papers were analyzed using thematic content analysis. This paper will present the results of this analysis and argue that incorporating fiction into the leadership curriculum allows students to explore the dire consequences of avoiding countervailing interests, engaging in dishonesty and engaging in moral puffery-based leadership.

Keywords: ethical leadership, empathetic imagination, business education, pedagogy, fiction

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Authors: Sumeyra Karatas, Veysel Karatas, Reyhan Safak, Gamze Bulut-Ozturk, Ozgul Kartal

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Productive struggle entails a student's cognitive exertion to comprehend mathematical concepts and uncover solutions not immediately apparent. The significance of productive struggle in learning mathematics is accentuated by influential educational theorists, emphasizing its necessity for learning mathematics with understanding. Consequently, supporting productive struggle in learning mathematics is recognized as a high-leverage and effective mathematics teaching practice. In this study, the investigation into the role of productive struggle in learning mathematics led to the development of a comprehensive rubric for productive struggle pedagogy through an exhaustive literature review. The rubric consists of eight primary criteria and 37 sub-criteria, providing a detailed description of teacher actions and pedagogical choices that foster students' productive struggles. These criteria encompass various pedagogical aspects, including task design, tool implementation, allowing time for struggle, posing questions, scaffolding, handling mistakes, acknowledging efforts, and facilitating discussion/feedback. Utilizing this rubric, a team of researchers and teachers designed eight 90-minute lesson plans, employing a productive struggle pedagogy, for a two-week unit on solving systems of linear equations. Simultaneously, another set of eight lesson plans on the same topic, featuring identical content and problems but employing a traditional lecture-and-practice model, was designed by the same team. The objective was to assess the impact of supporting productive struggle on students' mathematics learning, defined by the strands of mathematical proficiency. This quasi-experimental study compares the control group, which received traditional lecture- and practice instruction, with the treatment group, which experienced a productive struggle in pedagogy. Sixty-six 10th and 11th-grade students from two algebra classes, taught by the same teacher at a high school, underwent either the productive struggle pedagogy or lecture-and-practice approach over two-week eight 90-minute class sessions. To measure students' learning, an assessment was created and validated by a team of researchers and teachers. It comprised seven open-response problems assessing the strands of mathematical proficiency: procedural and conceptual understanding, strategic competence, and adaptive reasoning on the topic. The test was administered at the beginning and end of the two weeks as pre-and post-test. Students' solutions underwent scoring using an established rubric, subjected to expert validation and an inter-rater reliability process involving multiple criteria for each problem based on their steps and procedures. An analysis of covariance (ANCOVA) was conducted to examine the differences between the control group, which received traditional pedagogy, and the treatment group, exposed to the productive struggle pedagogy, on the post-test scores while controlling for the pre-test. The results indicated a significant effect of treatment on post-test scores for procedural understanding (F(2, 63) = 10.47, p < .001), strategic competence (F(2, 63) = 9.92, p < .001), adaptive reasoning (F(2, 63) = 10.69, p < .001), and conceptual understanding (F(2, 63) = 10.06, p < .001), controlling for pre-test scores. This demonstrates the positive impact of supporting productive struggle in learning mathematics. In conclusion, the results revealed the significance of the role of productive struggle in learning mathematics. The study further explored the practical application of productive struggle through the development of a comprehensive rubric describing the pedagogy of supporting productive struggle.

Keywords: effective mathematics teaching practice, high school algebra, learning mathematics, productive struggle

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Authors: Francisco José Plácido da Cunha, Tassio Ferenzini Martins Sirqueira, Marx Leles Viana, Carlos José Pereira de Lucena

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Open Multiagent Systems (MASs) are societies in which heterogeneous and independently designed entities (agents) work towards similar, or different ends. Software agents are autonomous and the diversity of interests among different members living in the same society is a fact. In order to deal with this autonomy, these open systems use mechanisms of social control (norms) to ensure a desirable social order. This paper considers the following types of norms: (i) obligation — agents must accomplish a specific outcome; (ii) permission — agents may act in a particular way, and (iii) prohibition — agents must not act in a specific way. All of these characteristics mean to encourage the fulfillment of norms through rewards and to discourage norm violation by pointing out the punishments. Once the software agent decides that its priority is the satisfaction of its own desires and goals, each agent must evaluate the effects associated to the fulfillment of one or more norms before choosing which one should be fulfilled. The same applies when agents decide to violate a norm. This paper also introduces a framework for the development of MASs that provide support mechanisms to the agent’s decision-making, using norm-based reasoning. The applicability and validation of this approach is demonstrated applying a traffic intersection scenario.

Keywords: BDI agent, BDI4JADE framework, multiagent systems, normative agents

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Authors: Mounir Kehal

Abstract:

The post-globalization epoch has placed businesses everywhere in new and different competitive situations where knowledgeable, effective and efficient behavior has come to provide the competitive and comparative edge. Enterprises have turned to explicit - and even conceptualizing on tacit - knowledge management to elaborate a systematic approach to develop and sustain the intellectual capital needed to succeed. To be able to do that, you have to be able to visualize your organization as consisting of nothing but knowledge and knowledge flows, whilst being presented in a graphical and visual framework, referred to as automated organizational cartography. Hence, creating the ability of further actively classifying existing organizational content evolving from and within data feeds, in an algorithmic manner, potentially giving insightful schemes and dynamics by which organizational know-how is visualized. It is discussed and elaborated on most recent and applicable definitions and classifications of knowledge management, representing a wide range of views from mechanistic (systematic, data driven) to a more socially (psychologically, cognitive/metadata driven) orientated. More elaborate continuum models, for knowledge acquisition and reasoning purposes, are being used for effectively representing the domain of information that an end user may contain in their decision making process for utilization of available organizational intellectual resources (i.e. Autocart). In this paper, we present an empirical research study conducted previously to try and explore knowledge diffusion in a specialist knowledge domain.

Keywords: knowledge management, knowledge maps, knowledge diffusion, organizational cartography

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Authors: Zhanna Dedovets

Abstract:

Fostering a mathematical style of thinking is crucial for cultivating intellectual personalities capable of thriving in modern society. Intuitive thinking stands as a cornerstone among the components of mathematical cognition, playing a pivotal role in grasping mathematical truths across various disciplines. This article delves into the exploration of leveraging search activities rooted in students' intuitive thinking, particularly when tackling geometric problems. Emphasizing both student engagement with the task and their active involvement in the search process, the study underscores the importance of heuristic procedures and the freedom for students to chart their own problem-solving paths. Spanning several years (2019-2023) at the Physics and Mathematics Lyceum of Dushanbe, the research engaged 17 teachers and 78 high school students. After assessing the initial levels of intuitive thinking in both control and experimental groups, the experimental group underwent training following the authors' methodology. Subsequent analysis revealed a significant advancement in thinking levels among the experimental group students. The methodological approaches and teaching materials developed through this process offer valuable resources for mathematics educators seeking to enhance their students' learning experiences effectively.

Keywords: teaching of mathematics, intuitive thinking, heuristic procedures, geometric problem, students.

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Authors: Georgios Charizanos, Haydar Demirhan, Duygu Icen

Abstract:

Two of the most impactful issues in classical logistic regression are class imbalance and complete separation. These can result in model predictions heavily leaning towards the imbalanced class on the binary response variable or over-fitting issues. Fuzzy methodology offers key solutions for handling these problems. However, most studies propose the transformation of the binary responses into a continuous format limited within [0,1]. This is called the possibilistic approach within fuzzy logistic regression. Following this approach is more aligned with straightforward regression since a logit-link function is not utilized, and fuzzy probabilities are not generated. In contrast, we propose a method of fuzzifying binary response variables that allows for the use of the logit-link function; hence, a probabilistic fuzzy logistic regression model with the Monte Carlo method. The fuzzy probabilities are then classified by selecting a fuzzy threshold. Different combinations of fuzzy and crisp input, output, and coefficients are explored, aiming to understand which of these perform better under different conditions of imbalance and separation. We conduct numerical experiments using both synthetic and real datasets to demonstrate the performance of the fuzzy logistic regression framework against seven crisp machine learning methods. The proposed framework shows better performance irrespective of the degree of imbalance and presence of separation in the data, while the considered machine learning methods are significantly impacted.

Keywords: fuzzy logistic regression, fuzzy, logistic, machine learning

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Authors: Pi-Hsia Hung

Abstract:

The development of mathematical competency has individual benefits as well as benefits to the wider society. Children who begin school behind their peers in their understanding of number, counting, and simple arithmetic are at high risk of staying behind throughout their schooling. The development of effective strategies for improving the educational trajectory of these individuals will be contingent on identifying areas of early quantitative knowledge that influence later mathematics achievement. A computer-based quantity assessment was developed in this study to investigate the characteristics of 2nd and 3rd grade slow learners in quantity. The concept of quantification involves understanding measurements, counts, magnitudes, units, indicators, relative size, and numerical trends and patterns. Fifty-five tasks of quantitative reasoning—such as number sense, mental calculation, estimation and assessment of reasonableness of results—are included as quantity problem solving. Thus, quantity is defined in this study as applying knowledge of number and number operations in a wide variety of authentic settings. Around 1000 students were tested and categorized into 4 different performance levels. Students’ quantity ability correlated higher with their school math grade than other subjects. Around 20% students are below basic level. The intervention design implications of the preliminary item map constructed are discussed.

Keywords: mathematics assessment, mathematical cognition, quantity, number sense, validity

Procedia PDF Downloads 212