Search results for: prediction interval

Authors: Michela Quadrini

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Chord diagrams occur in mathematics, from the study of RNA to knot theory. They are widely used in theory of knots and links for studying the finite type invariants, whereas in molecular biology one important motivation to study chord diagrams is to deal with the problem of RNA structure prediction. An RNA molecule is a linear polymer, referred to as the backbone, that consists of four types of nucleotides. Each nucleotide is represented by a point, whereas each chord of the diagram stands for one interaction for Watson-Crick base pairs between two nonconsecutive nucleotides. A chord diagram is an oriented circle with a set of n pairs of distinct points, considered up to orientation preserving diffeomorphisms of the circle. A linear chord diagram (LCD) is a special kind of graph obtained cutting the oriented circle of a chord diagram. It consists of a line segment, called its backbone, to which are attached a number of chords with distinct endpoints. There is a natural fattening on any linear chord diagram; the backbone lies on the real axis, while all the chords are in the upper half-plane. Each linear chord diagram has a natural genus of its associated surface. To each chord diagram and linear chord diagram, it is possible to associate the intersection graph. It consists of a graph whose vertices correspond to the chords of the diagram, whereas the chord intersections are represented by a connection between the vertices. Such intersection graph carries a lot of information about the diagram. Our goal is to define an LCD equivalence class in terms of identity of intersection graphs, from which many chord diagram invariants depend. For studying these invariants, we introduce a new representation of Linear Chord Diagrams based on a set of appropriate topological operators that permits to model LCD in terms of the relations among chords. Such set is composed of: crossing, nesting, and concatenations. The crossing operator is able to generate the whole space of linear chord diagrams, and a multiple context free grammar able to uniquely generate each LDC starting from a linear chord diagram adding a chord for each production of the grammar is defined. In other words, it allows to associate a unique algebraic term to each linear chord diagram, while the remaining operators allow to rewrite the term throughout a set of appropriate rewriting rules. Such rules define an LCD equivalence class in terms of the identity of intersection graphs. Starting from a modelled RNA molecule and the linear chord, some authors proposed a topological classification and folding. Our LCD equivalence class could contribute to the RNA folding problem leading to the definition of an algorithm that calculates the free energy of the molecule more accurately respect to the existing ones. Such LCD equivalence class could be useful to obtain a more accurate estimate of link between the crossing number and the topological genus and to study the relation among other invariants.

Keywords: chord diagrams, linear chord diagram, equivalence class, topological language

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Authors: James Rigor Camacho, Wansu Lim

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Over the last few years, the development of new wearable and processing technologies has accelerated in order to harness physiological data such as electroencephalograms (EEGs) for EEG-based applications. EEG has been demonstrated to be a source of emotion recognition signals with the highest classification accuracy among physiological signals. However, when emotion recognition systems are used for real-time classification, the training unit is frequently left to run offline or in the cloud rather than working locally on the edge. That strategy has hampered research, and the full potential of using an edge AI device has yet to be realized. Edge AI devices are computers with high performance that can process complex algorithms. It is capable of collecting, processing, and storing data on its own. It can also analyze and apply complicated algorithms like localization, detection, and recognition on a real-time application, making it a powerful embedded device. The NVIDIA Jetson series, specifically the Jetson Nano device, was used in the implementation. The cEEGrid, which is integrated to the open-source brain computer-interface platform (OpenBCI), is used to collect EEG signals. An EEG-based real-time emotion recognition system on Edge AI is proposed in this paper. To perform graphical spectrogram categorization of EEG signals and to predict emotional states based on input data properties, machine learning-based classifiers were used. Until the emotional state was identified, the EEG signals were analyzed using the K-Nearest Neighbor (KNN) technique, which is a supervised learning system. In EEG signal processing, after each EEG signal has been received in real-time and translated from time to frequency domain, the Fast Fourier Transform (FFT) technique is utilized to observe the frequency bands in each EEG signal. To appropriately show the variance of each EEG frequency band, power density, standard deviation, and mean are calculated and employed. The next stage is to identify the features that have been chosen to predict emotion in EEG data using the K-Nearest Neighbors (KNN) technique. Arousal and valence datasets are used to train the parameters defined by the KNN technique.Because classification and recognition of specific classes, as well as emotion prediction, are conducted both online and locally on the edge, the KNN technique increased the performance of the emotion recognition system on the NVIDIA Jetson Nano. Finally, this implementation aims to bridge the research gap on cost-effective and efficient real-time emotion recognition using a resource constrained hardware device, like the NVIDIA Jetson Nano. On the cutting edge of AI, EEG-based emotion identification can be employed in applications that can rapidly expand the research and implementation industry's use.

Keywords: edge AI device, EEG, emotion recognition system, supervised learning algorithm, sensors

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Authors: Thor Alexis Sazon, Alexander Guzman-Urbina, Yasuhiro Fukushima

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This study outlines the method of how to develop a surrogate life cycle model based on fuzzy logic using three fuzzy inference methods: (1) the conventional Fuzzy Inference System (FIS), (2) the hybrid system of Data Analytics and Fuzzy Inference (DAFIS), which uses data clustering for defining the membership functions, and (3) the Adaptive-Neuro Fuzzy Inference System (ANFIS), a combination of fuzzy inference and artificial neural network. These methods were demonstrated with a case study where the Global Warming Potential (GWP) and the Levelized Cost of Energy (LCOE) of solar photovoltaic (PV) were estimated using Solar Irradiation, Module Efficiency, and Performance Ratio as inputs. The effects of using different fuzzy inference types, either Sugeno- or Mamdani-type, and of changing the number of input membership functions to the error between the calibration data and the model-generated outputs were also illustrated. The solution spaces of the three methods were consequently examined with a sensitivity analysis. ANFIS exhibited the lowest error while DAFIS gave slightly lower errors compared to FIS. Increasing the number of input membership functions helped with error reduction in some cases but, at times, resulted in the opposite. Sugeno-type models gave errors that are slightly lower than those of the Mamdani-type. While ANFIS is superior in terms of error minimization, it could generate solutions that are questionable, i.e. the negative GWP values of the Solar PV system when the inputs were all at the upper end of their range. This shows that the applicability of the ANFIS models highly depends on the range of cases at which it was calibrated. FIS and DAFIS generated more intuitive trends in the sensitivity runs. DAFIS demonstrated an optimal design point wherein increasing the input values does not improve the GWP and LCOE anymore. In the absence of data that could be used for calibration, conventional FIS presents a knowledge-based model that could be used for prediction. In the PV case study, conventional FIS generated errors that are just slightly higher than those of DAFIS. The inherent complexity of a Life Cycle study often hinders its widespread use in the industry and policy-making sectors. While the methodology does not guarantee a more accurate result compared to those generated by the Life Cycle Methodology, it does provide a relatively simpler way of generating knowledge- and data-based estimates that could be used during the initial design of a system.

Keywords: solar photovoltaic, fuzzy logic, inference system, artificial neural networks

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Authors: Ali Abdul Kadhim, Fue Lien

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Solid particle distribution on an impingement surface has been simulated utilizing a graphical processing unit (GPU). In-house computational fluid dynamics (CFD) code has been developed to investigate a 3D turbulent impinging jet using the lattice Boltzmann method (LBM) in conjunction with large eddy simulation (LES) and the multiple relaxation time (MRT) models. This paper proposed an improvement in the LBM-cellular automata (LBM-CA) probabilistic method. In the current model, the fluid flow utilizes the D3Q19 lattice, while the particle model employs the D3Q27 lattice. The particle numbers are defined at the same regular LBM nodes, and transport of particles from one node to its neighboring nodes are determined in accordance with the particle bulk density and velocity by considering all the external forces. The previous models distribute particles at each time step without considering the local velocity and the number of particles at each node. The present model overcomes the deficiencies of the previous LBM-CA models and, therefore, can better capture the dynamic interaction between particles and the surrounding turbulent flow field. Despite the increasing popularity of LBM-MRT-CA model in simulating complex multiphase fluid flows, this approach is still expensive in term of memory size and computational time required to perform 3D simulations. To improve the throughput of each simulation, a single GeForce GTX TITAN X GPU is used in the present work. The CUDA parallel programming platform and the CuRAND library are utilized to form an efficient LBM-CA algorithm. The methodology was first validated against a benchmark test case involving particle deposition on a square cylinder confined in a duct. The flow was unsteady and laminar at Re=200 (Re is the Reynolds number), and simulations were conducted for different Stokes numbers. The present LBM solutions agree well with other results available in the open literature. The GPU code was then used to simulate the particle transport and deposition in a turbulent impinging jet at Re=10,000. The simulations were conducted for L/D=2,4 and 6, where L is the nozzle-to-surface distance and D is the jet diameter. The effect of changing the Stokes number on the particle deposition profile was studied at different L/D ratios. For comparative studies, another in-house serial CPU code was also developed, coupling LBM with the classical Lagrangian particle dispersion model. Agreement between results obtained with LBM-CA and LBM-Lagrangian models and the experimental data is generally good. The present GPU approach achieves a speedup ratio of about 350 against the serial code running on a single CPU.

Keywords: CUDA, GPU parallel programming, LES, lattice Boltzmann method, MRT, multi-phase flow, probabilistic model

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Authors: Ali Hashemifarzad, Jens Zum Hingst

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The structure of the world’s energy systems has changed significantly over the past years. One of the most important challenges in the 21st century in Germany (and also worldwide) is the energy transition. This transition aims to comply with the recent international climate agreements from the United Nations Climate Change Conference (COP21) to ensure sustainable energy supply with minimal use of fossil fuels. Germany aims for complete decarbonization of the energy sector by 2050 according to the federal climate protection plan. One of the stipulations of the Renewable Energy Sources Act 2017 for the expansion of energy production from renewable sources in Germany is that they cover at least 80% of the electricity requirement in 2050; The Gross end energy consumption is targeted for at least 60%. This means that by 2050, the energy supply system would have to be almost completely converted to renewable energy. An essential basis for the development of such a sustainable energy supply from 100% renewable energies is to predict the energy requirement by 2050. This study presents two scenarios for the final energy demand in Germany in 2050. In the first scenario, the targets for energy efficiency increase and demand reduction are set very ambitiously. To build a comparison basis, the second scenario provides results with less ambitious assumptions. For this purpose, first, the relevant framework conditions (following CUTEC 2016) were examined, such as the predicted population development and economic growth, which were in the past a significant driver for the increase in energy demand. Also, the potential for energy demand reduction and efficiency increase (on the demand side) was investigated. In particular, current and future technological developments in energy consumption sectors and possible options for energy substitution (namely the electrification rate in the transport sector and the building renovation rate) were included. Here, in addition to the traditional electricity sector, the areas of heat, and fuel-based consumptions in different sectors such as households, commercial, industrial and transport are taken into account, supporting the idea that for a 100% supply from renewable energies, the areas currently based on (fossil) fuels must be almost completely be electricity-based by 2050. The results show that in the very ambitious scenario a final energy demand of 1,362 TWh/a is required, which is composed of 818 TWh/a electricity, 229 TWh/a ambient heat for electric heat pumps and approx. 315 TWh/a non-electric energy (raw materials for non-electrifiable processes). In the less ambitious scenario, in which the targets are not fully achieved by 2050, the final energy demand will need a higher electricity part of almost 1,138 TWh/a (from the total: 1,682 TWh/a). It has also been estimated that 50% of the electricity revenue must be saved to compensate for fluctuations in the daily and annual flows. Due to conversion and storage losses (about 50%), this would mean that the electricity requirement for the very ambitious scenario would increase to 1,227 TWh / a.

Keywords: energy demand, energy transition, German Energiewende, 100% renewable energy production

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Authors: Thomas Folegot, Arnaud Levaufre, Léna Bourven, Nicolas Kermagoret, Alexis Caillard, Roger Gallou

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Concern for negative impacts of anthropogenic noise on the ocean’s ecosystems has increased over the recent decades. This concern leads to a similar increased willingness to regulate noise-generating activities, of which shipping is one of the most significant. Dealing with ship noise requires not only knowledge about the noise from individual ships, but also how the ship noise is distributed in time and space within the habitats of concern. Marine mammals, but also fish, sea turtles, larvae and invertebrates are mostly dependent on the sounds they use to hunt, feed, avoid predators, during reproduction to socialize and communicate, or to defend a territory. In the marine environment, sight is only useful up to a few tens of meters, whereas sound can propagate over hundreds or even thousands of kilometers. Directive 2008/56/EC of the European Parliament and of the Council of June 17, 2008 called the Marine Strategy Framework Directive (MSFD) require the Member States of the European Union to take the necessary measures to reduce the impacts of maritime activities to achieve and maintain a good environmental status of the marine environment. The Ocean-Planner is a web-based platform that provides to regulators, managers of protected or sensitive areas, etc. with a decision support tool that enable to anticipate and quantify the effectiveness of management measures in terms of reduction or modification the distribution of underwater noise, in response to Descriptor 11 of the MSFD and to the Marine Spatial Planning Directive. Based on the operational sound modelling tool Quonops Online Service, Ocean-Planner allows the user via an intuitive geographical interface to define management measures at local (Marine Protected Area, Natura 2000 sites, Harbors, etc.) or global (Particularly Sensitive Sea Area) scales, seasonal (regulation over a period of time) or permanent, partial (focused to some maritime activities) or complete (all maritime activities), etc. Speed limit, exclusion area, traffic separation scheme (TSS), and vessel sound level limitation are among the measures supported be the tool. Ocean Planner help to decide on the most effective measure to apply to maintain or restore the biodiversity and the functioning of the ecosystems of the coastal seabed, maintain a good state of conservation of sensitive areas and maintain or restore the populations of marine species.

Keywords: underwater noise, marine biodiversity, marine spatial planning, mitigation measures, prediction

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Authors: Suresh Salla

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In this paper, author explores for most sustainable last mile transport mode addressing present problems of traffic congestion, jams, pollution and travel stress. Development of energy-efficient sustainable integrated transport system(s) is/are must to make our cities more livable. Emphasis on autonomous, connected, electric, sharing system for effective utilization of systems (vehicles and public infrastructure) is on the rise. Many surface mobility innovations like PBS, Ride hailing, ride sharing, etc. are, although workable but if we analyze holistically, add to the already congested roads, difficult to ride in hostile weather, causes pollution and poses commuter stress. Sustainability of transportation is evaluated with respect to public adoption, average speed, energy consumption, and pollution. Why public prefer certain mode over others? How commute time plays a role in mode selection or shift? What are the factors play-ing role in energy consumption and pollution? Based on the study, it is clear that public prefer a transport mode which is exhaustive (i.e., less need for interchange – network is widespread) and intensive (i.e., less waiting time - vehicles are available at frequent intervals) and convenient with latest technologies. Average speed is dependent on stops, number of intersections, signals, clear route availability, etc. It is clear from Physics that higher the kerb weight of a vehicle; higher is the operational energy consumption. Higher kerb weight also demands heavier infrastructure. Pollution is dependent on source of energy, efficiency of vehicle, average speed. Mode can be made exhaustive when the unit infrastructure cost is less and can be offered intensively when the vehicle cost is less. Reliable and seamless integrated mobility till last ¼ mile (Five Minute Walk-FMW) is a must to encourage sustainable public transportation. Study shows that average speed and reliability of dedicated modes (like Metro, PRT, BRT, etc.) is high compared to road vehicles. Electric vehicles and more so battery-less or 3rd rail vehicles reduce pollution. One potential mode can be Cycleloop PRT, where commuter rides e-cycle in a dedicated path – elevated, at grade or underground. e-Bike with kerb weight per rider at 15 kg being 1/50th of car or 1/10th of other PRT systems makes it sustainable mode. Cycleloop tube will be light, sleek and scalable and can be modular erected, either on modified street lamp-posts or can be hanged/suspended between the two stations. Embarking and dis-embarking points or offline stations can be at an interval which suits FMW to mass public transit. In terms of convenience, guided e-Bike can be made self-balancing thus encouraging driverless on-demand vehicles. e-Bike equipped with smart electronics and drive controls can intelligently respond to field sensors and autonomously move reacting to Central Controller. Smart switching allows travel from origin to destination without interchange of cycles. DC Powered Batteryless e-cycle with voluntary manual pedaling makes it sustainable and provides health benefits. Tandem e-bike, smart switching and Platoon operations algorithm options provide superior through-put of the Cycleloop. Thus Cycleloop PRT will be exhaustive, intensive, convenient, reliable, speedy, sustainable, safe, pollution-free and healthy alternative mode for last mile connectivity in cities.

Keywords: cycleloop PRT, five-minute walk, lean modular infrastructure, self-balanced intelligent e-cycle

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Authors: Sherly Shelton, Zhaohui Lin

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In recent decades, the inter-annual variability of summer precipitation over the India and Sri Lanka has intensified significantly with an increased frequency of both abnormally dry and wet summers. Therefore prediction of the inter-annual variability of summer precipitation is crucial and urgent for water management and local agriculture scheduling. However, none of the hypotheses put forward so far could understand the relationship to monsoon variability and related factors that affect to the South West Monsoon (SWM) variability in Sri Lanka. This study focused to identify the spatial and temporal variability of SWM rainfall events from June to September (JJAS) over Sri Lanka and associated trend. The monthly rainfall records covering 1980-2013 over the Sri Lanka are used for 19 stations to investigate long-term trends in SWM rainfall over Sri Lanka. The linear trends of atmospheric variables are calculated to understand the drivers behind the changers described based on the observed precipitation, sea surface temperature and atmospheric reanalysis products data for 34 years (1980–2013). Empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis was applied to understand the spatial and temporal behaviour of seasonal SWM rainfall variability and also investigate whether the trend pattern is the dominant mode that explains SWM rainfall variability. The spatial and stations based precipitation over the country showed statistically insignificant decreasing trends except few stations. The first two EOFs of seasonal (JJAS) mean of rainfall explained 52% and 23 % of the total variance and first PC showed positive loadings of the SWM rainfall for the whole landmass while strongest positive lording can be seen in western/ southwestern part of the Sri Lanka. There is a negative correlation (r ≤ -0.3) between SMRI and SST in the Arabian Sea and Central Indian Ocean which indicate that lower temperature in the Arabian Sea and Central Indian Ocean are associated with greater rainfall over the country. This study also shows that consistently warming throughout the Indian Ocean. The result shows that the perceptible water over the county is decreasing with the time which the influence to the reduction of precipitation over the area by weakening drawn draft. In addition, evaporation is getting weaker over the Arabian Sea, Bay of Bengal and Sri Lankan landmass which leads to reduction of moisture availability required for the SWM rainfall over Sri Lanka. At the same time, weakening of the SST gradients between Arabian Sea and Bay of Bengal can deteriorate the monsoon circulation, untimely which diminish SWM over Sri Lanka. The decreasing trends of moisture, moisture transport, zonal wind, moisture divergence with weakening evaporation over Arabian Sea, during the past decade having an aggravating influence on decreasing trends of monsoon rainfall over the Sri Lanka.

Keywords: Arabian Sea, moisture flux convergence, South West Monsoon, Sri Lanka, sea surface temperature

Procedia PDF Downloads 103

Authors: Angela T. H. Kwan, Wenjun Liang, Jack Wellington, Mohammad Mofatteh, Thanh N. Nguyen, Pingzhong Fu, Juanmei Chen, Zile Yan, Weijuan Wu, Yongting Zhou, Shuiquan Yang, Sijie Zhou, Yimin Chen

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Background: Endovascular Therapy (EVT)—in the form of mechanical thrombectomy—following intravenous thrombolysis is the standard gold treatment for patients with acute ischemic stroke (AIS) due to large vessel occlusion (LVO). It is well established that an ASPECTS ≥ 7 is associated with an increased likelihood of positive post-EVT outcomes, as compared to an ASPECTS < 7. There is also prognostic utility in coupling posterior circulation ASPECTS (pc-ASPECTS) with magnetic resonance imaging for evaluating the post-EVT functional outcome. However, the value of pc-ASPECTS applied to CT must be explored further to determine its usefulness in predicting functional outcomes following EVT. Objective: In this study, we aimed to determine whether pc-ASPECTS on CT can predict post-EVT functional outcomes among patients with AIS due to LVO. Methods: A total of 247 consecutive patients aged 18 and over receiving EVT for LVO-related AIS were recruited into a prospective database. The data were retrospectively analyzed between March 2019 to February 2022 from two comprehensive tertiary care stroke centers: Foshan Sanshui District People’s Hospital and First People's Hospital of Foshan in China. Patient parameters included EVT within 24hrs of symptom onset, premorbid modified Rankin Scale (mRS) ≤ 2, presence of distal and terminal cerebral blood vessel occlusion, and subsequent 24–72-hour post-stroke onset CT scan. Univariate comparisons were performed using the Fisher exact test or χ2 test for categorical variables and the Mann–Whitney U test for continuous variables. A p-value of ≤ 0.05 was statistically significant. Results: A total of 247 patients met the inclusion criteria; however, 3 were excluded due to the absence of post-CTs and 8 for pre-EVT ASPECTS < 7. Overall, 236 individuals were examined: 196 anterior circulation ischemic strokes and 40 posterior strokes of basilar artery occlusion. We found that both baseline post- and pc-ASPECTS ≥ 7 serve as strong positive markers of favorable outcomes at 90 days post-EVT. Moreover, lower rates of inpatient mortality/hospice discharge, 90-day mortality, and 90-day poor outcome were observed. Moreover, patients in the post-ASPECTS ≥ 7 anterior circulation group had shorter door-to-recanalization time (DRT), puncture-to-recanalization time (PRT), and last known normal-to-puncture-time (LKNPT). Conclusion: Patients of anterior and posterior circulation ischemic strokes with baseline post- and pc-ASPECTS ≥ 7 may benefit from EVT.

Keywords: endovascular therapy, thrombectomy, large vessel occlusion, cerebral ischemic stroke, ASPECTS

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Authors: David Edgar

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To understand how the brain’s subconscious and conscious functions, we must conquer the physics of Unity, which leads to duality’s algorithm. Where the subconscious (bottom-up) and conscious (top-down) processes function together to produce and consume intelligence, we use terms like ‘time is relative,’ but we really do understand the meaning. In the brain, there are different processes and, therefore, different observers. These different processes experience time at different rates. A sensory system such as the eyes cycles measurement around 33 milliseconds, the conscious process of the frontal lobe cycles at 300 milliseconds, and the subconscious process of the thalamus cycle at 5 milliseconds. Three different observers experience time differently. To bridge observers, the thalamus, which is the fastest of the processes, maintains a synchronous state and entangles the different components of the brain’s physical process. The entanglements form a synchronous cohesion between the brain components allowing them to share the same state and execute in the same measurement cycle. The thalamus uses the shared state to control the firing sequence of the brain’s linear subconscious process. Sharing state also allows the brain to cheat on the amount of sensory data that must be exchanged between components. Only unpredictable motion is transferred through the synchronous state because predictable motion already exists in the shared framework. The brain’s synchronous subconscious process is entirely based on energy conservation, where prediction regulates energy usage. So, the eyes every 33 milliseconds dump their sensory data into the thalamus every day. The thalamus is going to perform a motion measurement to identify the unpredictable motion in the sensory data. Here is the trick. The thalamus conducts its measurement based on the original observation time of the sensory system (33 ms), not its own process time (5 ms). This creates a data payload of synchronous motion that preserves the original sensory observation. Basically, a frozen moment in time (Flat 4D). The single moment in time can then be processed through the single state maintained by the synchronous process. Other processes, such as consciousness (300 ms), can interface with the synchronous state to generate awareness of that moment. Now, synchronous data traveling through a separate faster synchronous process creates a theoretical time tunnel where observation time is tunneled through the synchronous process and is reproduced on the other side in the original time-relativity. The synchronous process eliminates time dilation by simply removing itself from the equation so that its own process time does not alter the experience. To the original observer, the measurement appears to be instantaneous, but in the thalamus, a linear subconscious process generating sensory perception and thought production is being executed. It is all just occurring in the time available because other observation times are slower than thalamic measurement time. For life to exist in the physical universe requires a linear measurement process, it just hides by operating at a faster time relativity. What’s interesting is time dilation is not the problem; it’s the solution. Einstein said there was no universal time.

Keywords: neural synchronization, natural intelligence, 99.95% IoT data transmission savings, artificial subconscious intelligence (ASI)

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Authors: Sina Moradi, Christopher W. K. Chow, John Van Leeuwen, David Cook, Mary Drikas, Patrick Hayde, Rose Amal

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Chloramine is commonly used as a disinfectant in drinking water distribution systems (DWDSs), particularly in Australia and the USA. Maintaining a chloramine residual throughout the DWDS is important in ensuring microbiologically safe water is supplied at the customer’s tap. In order to simulate how chloramine behaves when it moves through the distribution system, a water quality network model (WQNM) can be applied. In this work, the WQNM was based on mono-chloramine decomposition reactions, which enabled prediction of mono-chloramine residual at different locations through a DWDS in Australia, using the Bentley commercial hydraulic package (Water GEMS). The accuracy of WQNM predictions is influenced by a number of water quality parameters. Optimization of these parameters in order to obtain the closest results in comparison with actual measured data in a real DWDS would result in both cost reduction as well as reduction in consumption of valuable resources such as energy and materials. In this work, the optimum operating conditions of water quality parameters (i.e. temperature, pH, and initial mono-chloramine concentration) to maximize the accuracy of mono-chloramine residual predictions for two water supply scenarios in an entire network were determined using response surface methodology (RSM). To obtain feasible and economical water quality parameters for highest model predictability, Design Expert 8.0 software (Stat-Ease, Inc.) was applied to conduct the optimization of three independent water quality parameters. High and low levels of the water quality parameters were considered, inevitably, as explicit constraints, in order to avoid extrapolation. The independent variables were pH, temperature and initial mono-chloramine concentration. The lower and upper limits of each variable for two water supply scenarios were defined and the experimental levels for each variable were selected based on the actual conditions in studied DWDS. It was found that at pH of 7.75, temperature of 34.16 ºC, and initial mono-chloramine concentration of 3.89 (mg/L) during peak water supply patterns, root mean square error (RMSE) of WQNM for the whole network would be minimized to 0.189, and the optimum conditions for averaged water supply occurred at pH of 7.71, temperature of 18.12 ºC, and initial mono-chloramine concentration of 4.60 (mg/L). The proposed methodology to predict mono-chloramine residual can have a great potential for water treatment plant operators in accurately estimating the mono-chloramine residual through a water distribution network. Additional studies from other water distribution systems are warranted to confirm the applicability of the proposed methodology for other water samples.

Keywords: chloramine decay, modelling, response surface methodology, water quality parameters

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Authors: Olena Kavats, Dmitry Khramov, Kateryna Sergieieva, Vladimir Vasyliev, Iurii Kavats

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Geoinformation technologies of space agromonitoring are a means of operative decision making support in the tasks of managing the agricultural sector of the economy. Existing technologies use satellite images in the optical range of electromagnetic spectrum. Time series of optical images often contain gaps due to the presence of clouds and haze. A geoinformation technology is created. It allows to fill gaps in time series of optical images (Sentinel-2, Landsat-8, PROBA-V, MODIS) with radar survey data (Sentinel-1) and use information about agrometeorological conditions of the growing season for individual monitoring years. The technology allows to perform crop classification and mapping for spring-summer (winter and spring crops) and autumn-winter (winter crops) periods of vegetation, monitoring the dynamics of crop state seasonal changes, crop yield forecasting. Crop classification is based on supervised classification algorithms, takes into account the peculiarities of crop growth at different vegetation stages (dates of sowing, emergence, active vegetation, and harvesting) and agriculture land state characteristics (row spacing, seedling density, etc.). A catalog of samples of the main agricultural crops (Ukraine) is created and crop spectral signatures are calculated with the preliminary removal of row spacing, cloud cover, and cloud shadows in order to construct time series of crop growth characteristics. The obtained data is used in grain crop growth tracking and in timely detection of growth trends deviations from reference samples of a given crop for a selected date. Statistical models of crop yield forecast are created in the forms of linear and nonlinear interconnections between crop yield indicators and crop state characteristics (temperature, precipitation, vegetation indices, etc.). Predicted values of grain crop yield are evaluated with an accuracy up to 95%. The developed technology was used for agricultural areas monitoring in a number of Great Britain and Ukraine regions using EOS Crop Monitoring Platform (https://crop-monitoring.eos.com). The obtained results allow to conclude that joint use of Sentinel-1 and Sentinel-2 images improve separation of winter crops (rapeseed, wheat, barley) in the early stages of vegetation (October-December). It allows to separate successfully the soybean, corn, and sunflower sowing areas that are quite similar in their spectral characteristics.

Keywords: geoinformation technology, crop classification, crop yield prediction, agricultural monitoring, EOS Crop Monitoring Platform

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Authors: Fanny Desbiolles, Laure Malleret, Isabelle Laffont-Schwob, Christophe Tiliacos, Anne Piram, Mohamed Sarakha, Pascal Wong-Wah-Chung

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Pharmaceuticals in the environment have become a very hot topic in the recent years. This interest is related to the large amounts dispensed and to their release in urine or faeces from treated patients, resulting in their ubiquitous presence in water resources and wastewater treatment plants (WWTP) effluents. Thereby, many studies focused on the prediction of pharmaceuticals’ behaviour, to assess their fate and impacts in the environment. Carbamazepine is a widely consumed psychotropic pharmaceutical, thus being one of the most commonly detected drugs in the environment. This organic pollutant was proved to be persistent, especially with respect to its non-biodegradability, rendering it recalcitrant to usual biological treatment processes. Consequently, carbamazepine is very little removed in WWTP with a maximum abatement rate of 5 % and is then often released in natural surface waters. To better assess the environmental fate of carbamazepine in aqueous media, its photochemical transformation was undertaken in four natural waters (two French rivers, the Berre salt lagoon, Mediterranean Sea water) representative of coastal and inland water types. Kinetic experiments were performed in the presence of light using simulated solar irradiation (Xe lamp 300W). Formation of short-lifetime species was highlighted using chemical trap and laser flash photolysis (nanosecond). Identification of transformation by-products was assessed by LC-QToF-MS analyses. Carbamazepine degradation was observed after a four-day exposure and an abatement of 20% maximum was measured yielding to the formation of many by-products. Moreover, the formation of hydroxyl radicals (•OH) was evidenced in waters using terephthalic acid as a probe, considering the photochemical instability of its specific hydroxylated derivative. Correlations were implemented using carbamazepine degradation rate, estimated hydroxyl radical formation and chemical contents of waters. In addition, laser flash photolysis studies confirmed •OH formation and allowed to evidence other reactive species, such as chloride (Cl2•-)/bromine (Br2•-) and carbonate (CO3•-) radicals in natural waters. Radicals mainly originate from dissolved phase and their occurrence and abundance depend on the type of water. Rate constants between reactive species and carbamazepine were determined by laser flash photolysis and competitive reactions experiments. Moreover, LC-QToF-MS analyses of by-products help us to propose mechanistic pathways. The results will bring insights to the fate of carbamazepine in various water types and could help to evaluate more precisely potential ecotoxicological effects.

Keywords: carbamazepine, kinetic and mechanistic approaches, natural waters, photodegradation

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Authors: Liubov Lutsyshyn, Yaroslava Zhukova

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Over the past twenty years, there has been a drastic change in the mode of nutrition in many countries which has been reflected in the development of new products, production techniques, and has also led to the expansion of sales markets for food products. Studies have shown that solution of the food safety problems is almost impossible without the active and systematic activity of organizations directly involved in the production, storage and sale of food products, as well as without management of end-to-end traceability and exchange of information. The aim of this research is development of the integrated system of the quality management and safety assurance based on the principles of HACCP, traceability and system approach with creation of an algorithm for the identification and monitoring of parameters of technological process of manufacture of cooked sausage products. Methodology of implementation of the integrated system based on the principles of HACCP, traceability and system approach during the manufacturing of cooked sausage products for effective provision for the defined properties of the finished product has been developed. As a result of the research evaluation technique and criteria of performance of the implementation and operation of the system of the quality management and safety assurance based on the principles of HACCP have been developed and substantiated. In the paper regularities of influence of the application of HACCP principles, traceability and system approach on parameters of quality and safety of the finished product have been revealed. In the study regularities in identification of critical control points have been determined. The algorithm of functioning of the integrated system of the quality management and safety assurance has also been described and key requirements for the development of software allowing the prediction of properties of finished product, as well as the timely correction of the technological process and traceability of manufacturing flows have been defined. Based on the obtained results typical scheme of the integrated system of the quality management and safety assurance based on HACCP principles with the elements of end-to-end traceability and system approach for manufacture of cooked sausage products has been developed. As a result of the studies quantitative criteria for evaluation of performance of the system of the quality management and safety assurance have been developed. A set of guidance documents for the implementation and evaluation of the integrated system based on the HACCP principles in meat processing plants have also been developed. On the basis of the research the effectiveness of application of continuous monitoring of the manufacturing process during the control on the identified critical control points have been revealed. The optimal number of critical control points in relation to the manufacture of cooked sausage products has been substantiated. The main results of the research have been appraised during 2013-2014 under the conditions of seven enterprises of the meat processing industry and have been implemented at JSC «Kyiv meat processing plant».

Keywords: cooked sausage products, HACCP, quality management, safety assurance

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Authors: Miguel Contreras, David Long, Will Bachman

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Background: Microscopy plays a central role in cell and developmental biology. In particular, fluorescence microscopy can be used to visualize specific cellular components and subsequently quantify their morphology through development of virtual-cell models for study of effects of mechanical forces on cells. However, there are challenges with these imaging experiments, which can make it difficult to quantify cell morphology: inconsistent results, time-consuming and potentially costly protocols, and limitation on number of labels due to spectral overlap. To address these challenges, the objective of this project is to develop an automatic computational machine learning pipeline to predict cellular components morphology for virtual-cell generation based on fluorescence cell membrane confocal z-stacks. Methods: Registered confocal z-stacks of nuclei and cell membrane of endothelial cells, consisting of 20 images each, were obtained from fluorescence confocal microscopy and normalized through software pipeline for each image to have a mean pixel intensity value of 0.5. An open source machine learning algorithm, originally developed to predict fluorescence labels on unlabeled transmitted light microscopy cell images, was trained using this set of normalized z-stacks on a single CPU machine. Through transfer learning, the algorithm used knowledge acquired from its previous training sessions to learn the new task. Once trained, the algorithm was used to predict morphology of nuclei using normalized cell membrane fluorescence images as input. Predictions were compared to the ground truth fluorescence nuclei images. Results: After one week of training, using one cell membrane z-stack (20 images) and corresponding nuclei label, results showed qualitatively good predictions on training set. The algorithm was able to accurately predict nuclei locations as well as shape when fed only fluorescence membrane images. Similar training sessions with improved membrane image quality, including clear lining and shape of the membrane, clearly showing the boundaries of each cell, proportionally improved nuclei predictions, reducing errors relative to ground truth. Discussion: These results show the potential of pre-trained machine learning algorithms to predict cell morphology using relatively small amounts of data and training time, eliminating the need of using multiple labels in immunofluorescence experiments. With further training, the algorithm is expected to predict different labels (e.g., focal-adhesion sites, cytoskeleton), which can be added to the automatic machine learning pipeline for direct input into Principal Component Analysis (PCA) for generation of virtual-cell mechanical models.

Keywords: cell morphology prediction, computational machine learning, fluorescence microscopy, virtual-cell models

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Authors: Yuan Yue, Wen-Wei Wang

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The objective of this research is to comprehensively evaluate the impact of alkaline environments on the durability of Glass Fiber Reinforced Polymer (GFRP) reinforcements in concrete structures and further explore their potential value within the construction industry. Specifically, we investigate the effects of two widely used high-performance concrete (HPC) materials on the durability of GFRP bars when embedded within them under varying temperature conditions. A total of 279 GFRP bar specimens were manufactured for microcosmic and mechanical performance tests. Among them, 270 specimens were used to test the residual tensile strength after 120 days of immersion, while 9 specimens were utilized for microscopic testing to analyze degradation damage. SEM techniques were employed to examine the microstructure of GFRP and cover concrete. Unidirectional tensile strength experiments were conducted to determine the remaining tensile strength after corrosion. The experimental variables consisted of four types of concrete (engineering cementitious composite (ECC), ultra-high-performance concrete (UHPC), and two types of ordinary concrete with different compressive strengths) as well as three acceleration temperatures (20, 40, and 60℃). The experimental results demonstrate that high-performance concrete (HPC) offers superior protection for GFRP bars compared to ordinary concrete. Two types of HPC enhance durability through different mechanisms: one by reducing the pH of the concrete pore fluid and the other by decreasing permeability. For instance, ECC improves embedded GFRP's durability by lowering the pH of the pore fluid. After 120 days of immersion at 60°C under accelerated conditions, ECC (pH=11.5) retained 68.99% of its strength, while PC1 (pH=13.5) retained 54.88%. On the other hand, UHPC enhances FRP steel's durability by increasing porosity and compactness in its protective layer to reinforce FRP reinforcement's longevity. Due to fillers present in UHPC, it typically exhibits lower porosity, higher densities, and greater resistance to permeation compared to PC2 with similar pore fluid pH levels, resulting in varying degrees of durability for GFRP bars embedded in UHPC and PC2 after 120 days of immersion at a temperature of 60°C - with residual strengths being 66.32% and 60.89%, respectively. Furthermore, SEM analysis revealed no noticeable evidence indicating fiber deterioration in any examined specimens, thus suggesting that uneven stress distribution resulting from interface segregation and matrix damage emerges as a primary causative factor for tensile strength reduction in GFRP rather than fiber corrosion. Moreover, long-term prediction models were utilized to calculate residual strength values over time for reinforcement embedded in HPC under high temperature and high humidity conditions - demonstrating that approximately 75% of its initial strength was retained by reinforcement embedded in HPC after 100 years of service.

Keywords: GFRP bars, HPC, degeneration, durability, residual tensile strength.

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Authors: Maria Fontenele, Claude-Gilles Dussap, Vincent Dumouilla, Baptiste Boit

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Roquette Frères is a producer of plant-based ingredients that employs many processes to extract relevant molecules and often transforms them through chemical and physical processes to create desired ingredients with specific functionalities. In this context, Roquette encounters numerous multi-component complex systems in their processes, including fibers, proteins, and carbohydrates, in an aqueous environment. To develop, control, and optimize both new and old processes, Roquette aims to develop new in silico tools. Currently, Roquette uses process modelling tools which include specific thermodynamic models and is willing to develop computational methodologies such as molecular dynamics simulations to gain insights into the complex interactions in such complex media, and especially hydrogen bonding interactions. The issue at hand concerns aqueous mixtures of polyols with high dry matter content. The polyols mannitol and sorbitol molecules are diastereoisomers that have nearly identical chemical structures but very different physicochemical properties: for example, the solubility of sorbitol in water is 2.5 kg/kg of water, while mannitol has a solubility of 0.25 kg/kg of water at 25°C. Therefore, predicting liquid-solid equilibrium properties in this case requires sophisticated solution models that cannot be based solely on chemical group contributions, knowing that for mannitol and sorbitol, the chemical constitutive groups are the same. Recognizing the significance of solvation phenomena in polyols, the GePEB (Chemical Engineering, Applied Thermodynamics, and Biosystems) team at Institut Pascal has developed the COSMO-UCA model, which has the structural advantage of using quantum mechanics tools to predict formation and phase equilibrium properties. In this work, we use molecular dynamics simulations to elucidate the behavior of polyols in aqueous solution. Specifically, we employ simulations to compute essential metrics such as radial distribution functions and hydrogen bond autocorrelation functions. Our findings illuminate a fundamental contrast: sorbitol and mannitol exhibit disparate hydrogen bond lifetimes within aqueous environments. This observation serves as a cornerstone in elucidating the divergent physicochemical properties inherent to each compound, shedding light on the nuanced interplay between their molecular structures and water interactions. We also present a methodology to predict the physicochemical properties of complex solutions, taking as sole input the three-dimensional structure of the molecules in the medium. Finally, by developing knowledge models, we represent some physicochemical properties of aqueous solutions of sorbitol and mannitol.

Keywords: COSMO models, hydrogen bond, molecular dynamics, thermodynamics

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Authors: Pierre Tize Mha, Mohammad Jahazi, Amèvi Togne, Olivier Pantalé

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Large-size forged blocks made of medium carbon high-strength steels are extensively used in the automotive industry as dies for the production of bumpers and dashboards through the plastic injection process. The manufacturing process of the large blocks starts with ingot casting, followed by open die forging and a quench and temper heat treatment process to achieve the desired mechanical properties and numerical simulation is widely used nowadays to predict these properties before the experiment. But the temperature gradient inside the specimen remains challenging in the sense that the temperature before loading inside the material is not the same, but during the simulation, constant temperature is used to simulate the experiment because it is assumed that temperature is homogenized after some holding time. Therefore to be close to the experiment, real distribution of the temperature through the specimen is needed before the mechanical loading. Thus, We present here a robust algorithm that allows the calculation of the temperature gradient within the specimen, thus representing a real temperature distribution within the specimen before deformation. Indeed, most numerical simulations consider a uniform temperature gradient which is not really the case because the surface and core temperatures of the specimen are not identical. Another feature that influences the mechanical properties of the specimen is recrystallization which strongly depends on the deformation conditions and the type of deformation like Upsetting, Cogging...etc. Indeed, Upsetting and Cogging are the stages where the greatest deformations are observed, and a lot of microstructural phenomena can be observed, like recrystallization, which requires in-depth characterization. Complete dynamic recrystallization plays an important role in the final grain size during the process and therefore helps to increase the mechanical properties of the final product. Thus, the identification of the conditions for the initiation of dynamic recrystallization is still relevant. Also, the temperature distribution within the sample and strain rate influence the recrystallization initiation. So the development of a technique allowing to predict the initiation of this recrystallization remains challenging. In this perspective, we propose here, in addition to the algorithm allowing to get the temperature distribution before the loading stage, an analytical model leading to determine the initiation of this recrystallization. These two techniques are implemented into the Abaqus finite element software via the UAMP and VUHARD subroutines for comparison with a simulation where an isothermal temperature is imposed. The Artificial Neural Network (ANN) model to describe the plastic behavior of the material is also implemented via the VUHARD subroutine. From the simulation, the temperature distribution inside the material and recrystallization initiation is properly predicted and compared to the literature models.

Keywords: dynamic recrystallization, finite element modeling, artificial neural network, numerical implementation

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Authors: Abdoulie K. Ceesay

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Within the sequence of the whole genome, it is known that 99.9% of the human genome is similar, whilst our difference lies in just 0.1%. Among these minor dissimilarities, the most common type of genetic variations that occurs in a population is SNP, which arises due to nucleotide substitution in a protein sequence that leads to protein destabilization, alteration in dynamics, and other physio-chemical properties’ distortions. While causing variations, they are equally responsible for our difference in the way we respond to a treatment or a disease, including various cancer types. There are two types of SNPs; synonymous single nucleotide polymorphism (sSNP) and non-synonymous single nucleotide polymorphism (nsSNP). sSNP occur in the gene coding region without causing a change in the encoded amino acid, while nsSNP is deleterious due to its replacement of a nucleotide residue in the gene sequence that results in a change in the encoded amino acid. Predicting the effects of cancer related nsSNPs on protein stability, function, and dynamics is important due to the significance of phenotype-genotype association of cancer. In this thesis, Data of 5 oncogenes (ONGs) (AKT1, ALK, ERBB2, KRAS, BRAF) and 5 tumor suppressor genes (TSGs) (ESR1, CASP8, TET2, PALB2, PTEN) were retrieved from ClinVar. Five common in silico tools; Polyphen, Provean, Mutation Assessor, Suspect, and FATHMM, were used to predict and categorize nsSNPs as deleterious, benign, or neutral. To understand the impact of each variation on the phenotype, Maestro, PremPS, Cupsat, and mCSM-NA in silico structural prediction tools were used. This study comprises of in-depth analysis of 10 cancer gene variants downloaded from Clinvar. Various analysis of the genes was conducted to derive a meaningful conclusion from the data. Research done indicated that pathogenic variants are more common among ONGs. Our research also shows that pathogenic and destabilizing variants are more common among ONGs than TSGs. Moreover, our data indicated that ALK(409) and BRAF(86) has higher benign count among ONGs; whilst among TSGs, PALB2(1308) and PTEN(318) genes have higher benign counts. Looking at the individual cancer genes predisposition or frequencies of causing cancer according to our research data, KRAS(76%), BRAF(55%), and ERBB2(36%) among ONGs; and PTEN(29%) and ESR1(17%) among TSGs have higher tendencies of causing cancer. Obtained results can shed light to the future research in order to pave new frontiers in cancer therapies.

Keywords: tumor suppressor genes (TSGs), oncogenes (ONGs), non synonymous single nucleotide polymorphism (nsSNP), single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP)

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Authors: Mohammed El Raey, Moustafa Osman Mohammed

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The spatial-ecological modeling is relating sustainable dispersions with social development. Sustainability with spatial-ecological model gives attention to urban environments in the design review management to comply with Earth’s System. Naturally exchange patterns of ecosystems have consistent and periodic cycles to preserve energy flows and materials in Earth’s System. The probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) technique is utilized to assess the safety of industrial complex. The other analytical approach is the Failure-Safe Mode and Effect Analysis (FMEA) for critical components. The plant safety parameters are identified for engineering topology as employed in assessment safety of industrial ecology. In particular, the most severe accidental release of hazardous gaseous is postulated, analyzed and assessment in industrial region. The IAEA- safety assessment procedure is used to account the duration and rate of discharge of liquid chlorine. The ecological model of plume dispersion width and concentration of chlorine gas in the downwind direction is determined using Gaussian Plume Model in urban and ruler areas and presented with SURFER®. The prediction of accident consequences is traced in risk contour concentration lines. The local greenhouse effect is predicted with relevant conclusions. The spatial-ecological model is also predicted the distribution schemes from the perspective of pollutants that considered multiple factors of multi-criteria analysis. The data extends input–output analysis to evaluate the spillover effect, and conducted Monte Carlo simulations and sensitivity analysis. Their unique structure is balanced within “equilibrium patterns”, such as the biosphere and collective a composite index of many distributed feedback flows. These dynamic structures are related to have their physical and chemical properties and enable a gradual and prolonged incremental pattern. While this spatial model structure argues from ecology, resource savings, static load design, financial and other pragmatic reasons, the outcomes are not decisive in artistic/ architectural perspective. The hypothesis is an attempt to unify analytic and analogical spatial structure for development urban environments using optimization software and applied as an example of integrated industrial structure where the process is based on engineering topology as optimization approach of systems ecology.

Keywords: spatial-ecological modeling, spatial structure orientation impact, composite structure, industrial ecology

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Authors: A. Alyaaria, b, J. P. Wignerona, A. Ducharneb, Y. Kerrc, P. de Rosnayd, R. de Jeue, A. Govinda, A. Al Bitarc, C. Albergeld, J. Sabaterd, C. Moisya, P. Richaumec, A. Mialonc

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Global Level-3 surface soil moisture (SSM) maps from the passive microwave soil moisture and Ocean Salinity satellite (SMOSL3) have been released. To further improve the Level-3 retrieval algorithm, evaluation of the accuracy of the spatio-temporal variability of the SMOS Level 3 products (referred to here as SMOSL3) is necessary. In this study, a comparative analysis of SMOSL3 with a SSM product derived from the observations of the Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer (AMSR-E) computed by implementing the Land Parameter Retrieval Model (LPRM) algorithm, referred to here as AMSRM, is presented. The comparison of both products (SMSL3 and AMSRM) were made against SSM products produced by a numerical weather prediction system (SM-DAS-2) at ECMWF (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts) for the 03/2010-09/2011 period at global scale. The latter product was considered here a 'reference' product for the inter-comparison of the SMOSL3 and AMSRM products. Three statistical criteria were used for the evaluation, the correlation coefficient (R), the root-mean-squared difference (RMSD), and the bias. Global maps of these criteria were computed, taking into account vegetation information in terms of biome types and Leaf Area Index (LAI). We found that both the SMOSL3 and AMSRM products captured well the spatio-temporal variability of the SM-DAS-2 SSM products in most of the biomes. In general, the AMSRM products overestimated (i.e., wet bias) while the SMOSL3 products underestimated (i.e., dry bias) SSM in comparison to the SM-DAS-2 SSM products. In term of correlation values, the SMOSL3 products were found to better capture the SSM temporal dynamics in highly vegetated biomes ('Tropical humid', 'Temperate Humid', etc.) while best results for AMSRM were obtained over arid and semi-arid biomes ('Desert temperate', 'Desert tropical', etc.). When removing the seasonal cycles in the SSM time variations to compute anomaly values, better correlation with the SM-DAS-2 SSM anomalies were obtained with SMOSL3 than with AMSRM, in most of the biomes with the exception of desert regions. Eventually, we showed that the accuracy of the remotely sensed SSM products is strongly related to LAI. Both the SMOSL3 and AMSRM (slightly better) SSM products correlate well with the SM-DAS2 products over regions with sparse vegetation for values of LAI < 1 (these regions represent almost 50% of the pixels considered in this global study). In regions where LAI>1, SMOSL3 outperformed AMSRM with respect to SM-DAS-2: SMOSL3 had almost consistent performances up to LAI = 6, whereas AMSRM performance deteriorated rapidly with increasing values of LAI.

Keywords: remote sensing, microwave, soil moisture, AMSR-E, SMOS

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Authors: Fabiana Franceschi, Martha Cobo, Manuel Figueredo

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Bogotá, the capital of Colombia, is its largest city and one of the most polluted in Latin America due to the fast economic growth over the last ten years. Bogotá has been affected by high pollution events which led to the high concentration of PM10 and NO2, exceeding the local 24-hour legal limits (100 and 150 g/m3 each). The most important pollutants in the city are PM10 and PM2.5 (which are associated with respiratory and cardiovascular problems) and it is known that their concentrations in the atmosphere depend on the local meteorological factors. Therefore, it is necessary to establish a relationship between the meteorological variables and the concentrations of the atmospheric pollutants such as PM10, PM2.5, CO, SO2, NO2 and O3. This study aims to determine the interrelations between meteorological variables and air pollutants in Bogotá, using data mining techniques. Data from 13 monitoring stations were collected from the Bogotá Air Quality Monitoring Network within the period 2010-2015. The Principal Component Analysis (PCA) algorithm was applied to obtain primary relations between all the parameters, and afterwards, the K-means clustering technique was implemented to corroborate those relations found previously and to find patterns in the data. PCA was also used on a per shift basis (morning, afternoon, night and early morning) to validate possible variation of the previous trends and a per year basis to verify that the identified trends have remained throughout the study time. Results demonstrated that wind speed, wind direction, temperature, and NO2 are the most influencing factors on PM10 concentrations. Furthermore, it was confirmed that high humidity episodes increased PM2,5 levels. It was also found that there are direct proportional relationships between O3 levels and wind speed and radiation, while there is an inverse relationship between O3 levels and humidity. Concentrations of SO2 increases with the presence of PM10 and decreases with the wind speed and wind direction. They proved as well that there is a decreasing trend of pollutant concentrations over the last five years. Also, in rainy periods (March-June and September-December) some trends regarding precipitations were stronger. Results obtained with K-means demonstrated that it was possible to find patterns on the data, and they also showed similar conditions and data distribution among Carvajal, Tunal and Puente Aranda stations, and also between Parque Simon Bolivar and las Ferias. It was verified that the aforementioned trends prevailed during the study period by applying the same technique per year. It was concluded that PCA algorithm is useful to establish preliminary relationships among variables, and K-means clustering to find patterns in the data and understanding its distribution. The discovery of patterns in the data allows using these clusters as an input to an Artificial Neural Network prediction model.

Keywords: air pollution, air quality modelling, data mining, particulate matter

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Authors: Irina Veselova, Maria Makedonskaya, Olga Eremina, Alexandr Sidorov, Eugene Goodilin, Tatyana Shekhovtsova

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Such catecholamines as dopamine, norepinephrine, and epinephrine are the principal neurotransmitters in the sympathetic nervous system. Catecholamines and their metabolites are considered to be important markers of socially significant diseases such as atherosclerosis, diabetes, coronary heart disease, carcinogenesis, Alzheimer's and Parkinson's diseases. Currently, neurotransmitters can be studied via electrochemical and chromatographic techniques that allow their characterizing and quantification, although these techniques can only provide crude spatial information. Besides, the difficulty of catecholamine determination in biological materials is associated with their low normal concentrations (~ 1 nM) in biomaterials, which may become even one more order lower because of some disorders. In addition, in blood they are rapidly oxidized by monoaminooxidases from thrombocytes and, for this reason, the determination of neurotransmitter metabolism indicators in an organism should be very rapid (15—30 min), especially in critical states. Unfortunately, modern instrumental analysis does not offer a complex solution of this problem: despite its high sensitivity and selectivity, HPLC-MS cannot provide sufficiently rapid analysis, while enzymatic biosensors and immunoassays for the determination of the considered analytes lack sufficient sensitivity and reproducibility. Fluorescent and SERS-sensors remain a compelling technology for approaching the general problem of selective neurotransmitter detection. In recent years, a number of catecholamine sensors have been reported including RNA aptamers, fluorescent ribonucleopeptide (RNP) complexes, and boronic acid based synthetic receptors and the sensor operated in a turn-off mode. In this work we present the fluorescent and SERS turn-on sensor systems based on the bio- or chemorecognizing nanostructured films {chitosan/collagen-Tb/Eu/Cu-nanoparticles-indicator reagents} that provide the selective recognition, visualization, and sensing of the above mentioned catecholamines on the level of nanomolar concentrations in biomaterials (cell cultures, tissue etc.). We have (1) developed optically transparent porous films and gels of chitosan/collagen; (2) ensured functionalization of the surface by molecules-'recognizers' (by impregnation and immobilization of components of the indicator systems: biorecognizing and auxiliary reagents); (3) performed computer simulation for theoretical prediction and interpretation of some properties of the developed materials and obtained analytical signals in biomaterials. We are grateful for the financial support of this research from Russian Foundation for Basic Research (grants no. 15-03-05064 a, and 15-29-01330 ofi_m).

Keywords: biomaterials, fluorescent and SERS-recognition, neurotransmitters, solid-phase turn-on sensor system

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Authors: Nathaniel Oladimeji Dixon, Adekemi Dorcas Fadun

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Educational managers have observed a downward trend in the administrative effectiveness of non-teaching staff in federal universities in South-west Nigeria. This is evident in the low-quality service delivery of administrators and unaccomplished institutional goals and missions of higher education. Scholars have thus indicated the need for the deployment and adoption of a practice that encourages information collection and sharing among stakeholders with a view to improving service delivery and outcomes. This study examined the extent to which knowledge management correlated with the administrative effectiveness of non-teaching staff in federal universities in South-west Nigeria. The study adopted the survey design. Three federal universities (the University of Ibadan, Federal University of Agriculture, Abeokuta, and Obafemi Awolowo University) were purposively selected because administrative ineffectiveness was more pronounced among non-teaching staff in government-owned universities, and these federal universities were long established. The proportional and stratified random sampling was adopted to select 1156 non-teaching staff across the three universities along the three existing layers of the non-teaching staff: secretarial (senior=311; junior=224), non-secretarial (senior=147; junior=241) and technicians (senior=130; junior=103). Knowledge Management Practices Questionnaire with four sub-scales: knowledge creation (α=0.72), knowledge utilization (α=0.76), knowledge sharing (α=0.79) and knowledge transfer (α=0.83); and Administrative Effectiveness Questionnaire with four sub-scales: communication (α=0.84), decision implementation (α=0.75), service delivery (α=0.81) and interpersonal relationship (α=0.78) were used for data collection. Data were analyzed using descriptive statistics, Pearson product-moment correlation and multiple regression at 0.05 level of significance, while qualitative data were content analyzed. About 59.8% of the non-teaching staff exhibited a low level of knowledge management. The indices of administrative effectiveness of non-teaching staff were rated as follows: service delivery (82.0%), communication (78.0%), decision implementation (71.0%) and interpersonal relationship (68.0%). Knowledge management had significant relationships with the indices of administrative effectiveness: service delivery (r=0.82), communication (r=0.81), decision implementation (r=0.80) and interpersonal relationship (r=0.47). Knowledge management had a significant joint prediction on administrative effectiveness (F (4;1151)= 0.79, R=0.86), accounting for 73.0% of its variance. Knowledge sharing (β=0.38), knowledge transfer (β=0.26), knowledge utilization (β=0.22), and knowledge creation (β=0.06) had relatively significant contributions to administrative effectiveness. Lack of team spirit and withdrawal syndrome is the major perceived constraints to knowledge management practices among the non-teaching staff. Knowledge management positively influenced the administrative effectiveness of the non-teaching staff in federal universities in South-west Nigeria. There is a need to ensure that the non-teaching staff imbibe team spirit and embrace teamwork with a view to eliminating their withdrawal syndromes. Besides, knowledge management practices should be deployed into the administrative procedures of the university system.

Keywords: knowledge management, administrative effectiveness of non-teaching staff, federal universities in the south-west of nigeria., knowledge creation, knowledge utilization, effective communication, decision implementation

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Authors: Richa Sharma, Uma Nahar, Sadhna Sharma, Indu Verma

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Counteracting the deadly pathogen Mycobacterium tuberculosis (M. tb) effectively is still a global challenge. Scrutinizing alternative weapons like antimicrobial peptides to strengthen existing tuberculosis artillery is urgently required. Considering the antimycobacterial potential of Human Beta Defensin 1 (HBD-1) along with isoniazid, the present study was designed to explore the ability of HBD-1 to act against active and dormant M. tb. HBD-1 was screened in silico using antimicrobial peptide prediction servers to identify its short antimicrobial motif. The activity of both HBD-1 and its selected motif (Pep B) was determined at different concentrations against actively growing M. tb in vitro and ex vivo in monocyte derived macrophages (MDMs). Log phase M. tb was grown along with HBD-1 and Pep B for 7 days. M. tb infected MDMs were treated with HBD-1 and Pep B for 72 hours. Thereafter, colony forming unit (CFU) enumeration was performed to determine activity of both peptides against actively growing in vitro and intracellular M. tb. The dormant M. tb models were prepared by following two approaches and treated with different concentrations of HBD-1 and Pep B. Firstly, 20-22 days old M. tbH37Rv was grown in potassium deficient Sauton media for 35 days. The presence of dormant bacilli was confirmed by Nile red staining. Dormant bacilli were further treated with rifampicin, isoniazid, HBD-1 and its motif for 7 days. The effect of both peptides on latent bacilli was assessed by colony forming units (CFU) and most probable number (MPN) enumeration. Secondly, human PBMC granuloma model was prepared by infecting PBMCs seeded on collagen matrix with M. tb(MOI 0.1) for 10 days. Histopathology was done to confirm granuloma formation. The granuloma thus formed was incubated for 72 hours with rifampicin, HBD-1 and Pep B individually. Difference in bacillary load was determined by CFU enumeration. The minimum inhibitory concentrations of HBD-1 and Pep B restricting growth of mycobacteria in vitro were 2μg/ml and 20μg/ml respectively. The intracellular mycobacterial load was reduced significantly by HBD-1 and Pep B at 1μg/ml and 5μg/ml respectively. Nile red positive bacterial population, high MPN/ low CFU count and tolerance to isoniazid, confirmed the formation of potassium deficienybaseddormancy model. HBD-1 (8μg/ml) showed 96% and 99% killing and Pep B (40μg/ml) lowered dormant bacillary load by 68.89% and 92.49% based on CFU and MPN enumeration respectively. Further, H&E stained aggregates of macrophages and lymphocytes, acid fast bacilli surrounded by cellular aggregates and rifampicin resistance, indicated the formation of human granuloma dormancy model. HBD-1 (8μg/ml) led to 81.3% reduction in CFU whereas its motif Pep B (40μg/ml) showed only 54.66% decrease in bacterial load inside granuloma. Thus, the present study indicated that HBD-1 and its motif are effective antimicrobial players against both actively growing and dormant M. tb. They should be further explored to tap their potential to design a powerful weapon for combating tuberculosis.

Keywords: antimicrobial peptides, dormant, human beta defensin 1, tuberculosis

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Authors: Nguyen J. M., Lucas G., Ruan S., Digonnet H., Antonioli D.

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Introduction: Deep Learning (DL) is a very powerful tool for analyzing image data. But for tabular data, it cannot compete with machine learning methods like XGBoost. The research question becomes: can tabular data be transformed into images that can be analyzed by simple CNNs (Convolutional Neuron Networks)? Will DL be the absolute tool for data classification? All current solutions consist in repositioning the variables in a 2x2 matrix using their correlation proximity. In doing so, it obtains an image whose pixels are the variables. We implement a technology, DeepNIC, that offers the possibility of obtaining an image for each variable, which can be analyzed by simple CNNs. Material and method: The 'ROP' (Regression OPtimized) model is a binary and atypical decision tree whose nodes are managed by a new artificial neuron, the Neurop. By positioning an artificial neuron in each node of the decision trees, it is possible to make an adjustment on a theoretically infinite number of variables at each node. From this new decision tree whose nodes are artificial neurons, we created the concept of a 'Random Forest of Perfect Trees' (RFPT), which disobeys Breiman's concepts by assembling very large numbers of small trees with no classification errors. From the results of the RFPT, we developed a family of 10 statistical information criteria, Nguyen Information Criterion (NICs), which evaluates in 3 dimensions the predictive quality of a variable: Performance, Complexity and Multiplicity of solution. A NIC is a probability that can be transformed into a grey level. The value of a NIC depends essentially on 2 super parameters used in Neurops. By varying these 2 super parameters, we obtain a 2x2 matrix of probabilities for each NIC. We can combine these 10 NICs with the functions AND, OR, and XOR. The total number of combinations is greater than 100,000. In total, we obtain for each variable an image of at least 1166x1167 pixels. The intensity of the pixels is proportional to the probability of the associated NIC. The color depends on the associated NIC. This image actually contains considerable information about the ability of the variable to make the prediction of Y, depending on the presence or absence of other variables. A basic CNNs model was trained for supervised classification. Results: The first results are impressive. Using the GSE22513 public data (Omic data set of markers of Taxane Sensitivity in Breast Cancer), DEEPNic outperformed other statistical methods, including XGBoost. We still need to generalize the comparison on several databases. Conclusion: The ability to transform any tabular variable into an image offers the possibility of merging image and tabular information in the same format. This opens up great perspectives in the analysis of metadata.

Keywords: tabular data, CNNs, NICs, DeepNICs, random forest of perfect trees, classification

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Authors: Faidon Kyriakou, William Dempster, David Nash

Abstract:

Abdominal Aortic Aneurysm (AAA) is a major life-threatening pathology for which modern approaches reduce the need for open surgery through the use of stenting. The success of stenting though is sometimes jeopardized by the final position of the stent graft inside the human artery which may result in migration, endoleaks or blood flow occlusion. Herein, a finite element (FE) model of the commercial medical device AnacondaTM (Vascutek, Terumo) has been developed and validated in order to create a numerical tool able to provide useful clinical insight before the surgical procedure takes place. The AnacondaTM device consists of a series of NiTi rings sewn onto woven polyester fabric, a structure that despite its column stiffness is flexible enough to be used in very tortuous geometries. For the purposes of this study, a FE model of the device was built in Abaqus® (version 6.13-2) with the combination of beam, shell and surface elements; the choice of these building blocks was made to keep the computational cost to a minimum. The validation of the numerical model was performed by comparing the deployed position of a full stent graft device inside a constructed AAA with a duplicate set-up in Abaqus®. Specifically, an AAA geometry was built in CAD software and included regions of both high and low tortuosity. Subsequently, the CAD model was 3D printed into a transparent aneurysm, and a stent was deployed in the lab following the steps of the clinical procedure. Images on the frontal and sagittal planes of the experiment allowed the comparison with the results of the numerical model. By overlapping the experimental and computational images, the mean and maximum distances between the rings of the two models were measured in the longitudinal, and the transverse direction and, a 5mm upper bound was set as a limit commonly used by clinicians when working with simulations. The two models showed very good agreement of their spatial positioning, especially in the less tortuous regions. As a result, and despite the inherent uncertainties of a surgical procedure, the FE model allows confidence that the final position of the stent graft, when deployed in vivo, can also be predicted with significant accuracy. Moreover, the numerical model run in just a few hours, an encouraging result for applications in the clinical routine. In conclusion, the efficient modelling of a complicated structure which combines thin scaffolding and fabric has been demonstrated to be feasible. Furthermore, the prediction capabilities of the location of each stent ring, as well as the global shape of the graft, has been shown. This can allow surgeons to better plan their procedures and medical device manufacturers to optimize their designs. The current model can further be used as a starting point for patient specific CFD analysis.

Keywords: AAA, efficiency, finite element analysis, stent deployment

Procedia PDF Downloads 167

Authors: Vivek Hokam, Vishrut Landge

Abstract:

An ideal maintenance program for an industrial road network is one that would maintain all sections at a sufficiently high level of functional and structural conditions. However, due to various constraints such as budget, manpower and equipment, it is not possible to carry out maintenance on all the needy industrial road sections within a given planning period. A rational and systematic priority scheme needs to be employed to select and schedule industrial road sections for maintenance. Priority analysis is a multi-criteria process that determines the best ranking list of sections for maintenance based on several factors. In priority setting, difficult decisions are required to be made for selection of sections for maintenance. It is more important to repair a section with poor functional conditions which includes uncomfortable ride etc. or poor structural conditions i.e. sections those are in danger of becoming structurally unsound. It would seem therefore that any rational priority setting approach must consider the relative importance of functional and structural condition of the section. The maintenance priority index and pavement performance models tend to focus mainly on the pavement condition, traffic criteria etc. There is a need to develop the model which is suitably used with respect to limited budget provisions for maintenance of pavement. Linear programming is one of the most popular and widely used quantitative techniques. A linear programming model provides an efficient method for determining an optimal decision chosen from a large number of possible decisions. The optimum decision is one that meets a specified objective of management, subject to various constraints and restrictions. The objective is mainly minimization of maintenance cost of roads in industrial area. In order to determine the objective function for analysis of distress model it is necessary to fix the realistic data into a formulation. Each type of repair is to be quantified in a number of stretches by considering 1000 m as one stretch. A stretch considered under study is having 3750 m length. The quantity has to be put into an objective function for maximizing the number of repairs in a stretch related to quantity. The distress observed in this stretch are potholes, surface cracks, rutting and ravelling. The distress data is measured manually by observing each distress level on a stretch of 1000 m. The maintenance and rehabilitation measured that are followed currently are based on subjective judgments. Hence, there is a need to adopt a scientific approach in order to effectively use the limited resources. It is also necessary to determine the pavement performance and deterioration prediction relationship with more accurate and economic benefits of road networks with respect to vehicle operating cost. The infrastructure of road network should have best results expected from available funds. In this paper objective function for distress model is determined by linear programming and deterioration model considering overloading is discussed.

Keywords: budget, maintenance, deterioration, priority

Procedia PDF Downloads 171

Authors: C. Deangeli, P. Obentaku Obenebot, O. Omwanghe

Abstract:

The study focuses on the analysis of wellbore instability in rock masses affected by weakness planes. The occurrence of failure in such a type of rocks can occur in the rock matrix and/ or along the weakness planes, in relation to the mud weight gradient. In this case the simple Kirsch solution coupled with a failure criterion cannot supply a suitable scenario for borehole instabilities. Two different numerical approaches have been used in order to investigate the onset of local failure at the wall of a borehole. For each type of approach the influence of the inclination of weakness planes has been investigates, by considering joint sets at 0°, 35° and 90° to the horizontal. The first set of models have been carried out with FLAC 2D (Fast Lagrangian Analysis of Continua) by considering the rock material as a continuous medium, with a Mohr Coulomb criterion for the rock matrix and using the ubiquitous joint model for accounting for the presence of the weakness planes. In this model yield may occur in either the solid or along the weak plane, or both, depending on the stress state, the orientation of the weak plane and the material properties of the solid and weak plane. The second set of models have been performed with PFC2D (Particle Flow code). This code is based on the Discrete Element Method and considers the rock material as an assembly of grains bonded by cement-like materials, and pore spaces. The presence of weakness planes is simulated by the degradation of the bonds between grains along given directions. In general the results of the two approaches are in agreement. However the discrete approach seems to capture more complex phenomena related to local failure in the form of grain detachment at wall of the borehole. In fact the presence of weakness planes in the discontinuous medium leads to local instability along the weak planes also in conditions not predicted from the continuous solution. In general slip failure locations and directions do not follow the conventional wellbore breakout direction but depend upon the internal friction angle and the orientation of the bedding planes. When weakness plane is at 0° and 90° the behaviour are similar to that of a continuous rock material, but borehole instability is more severe when weakness planes are inclined at an angle between 0° and 90° to the horizontal. In conclusion, the results of the numerical simulations show that the prediction of local failure at the wall of the wellbore cannot disregard the presence of weakness planes and consequently the higher mud weight required for stability for any specific inclination of the joints. Despite the discrete approach can simulate smaller areas because of the large number of particles required for the generation of the rock material, however it seems to investigate more correctly the occurrence of failure at the miscroscale and eventually the propagation of the failed zone to a large portion of rock around the wellbore.

Keywords: continuous- discontinuous, numerical modelling, weakness planes wellbore, FLAC 2D

Procedia PDF Downloads 475

Authors: Ghidey Ghebreyohanes, Eltahir Awad Gasim Khalil, Zemenfes Tsighe, Faiza Ali

Abstract:

Background: reproductive health (RH) is a state of physical, mental and social well-being in all matters relating to the reproductive system at all stages of life. In East Africa including Eritrea, adolescents comprise more than a quarter of the population. The region holds the highest rates of sexually transmitted diseases, HIV, unwanted pregnancy and unsafe abortion with its complications. Young girls carry the highest burden of reproductive health problems due to their risk taking behavior, lack of knowledge, peer pressure, physiologic immaturity and low socioeconomic status. Design: this was a Community-based, randomized, case-controlled and pre-test-post-test intervention study. Setting: Zoba Debub was randomly selected out of the six zobas in Eritrea. The four high schools out of the 26 in Zoba Debub were randomly selected as study target schools. Over three quarter of the people live on farming. The target population was female students attending grade nine with majority of these girls live in the distant villages and walk to school. The study participants were randomly selected (n=165) from each school. Furthermore, the 1 intervention and 3 controls for the study arms were assigned randomly. Objectives: this study aimed to assess the effectiveness of peer reproductive health education in improving knowledge, attitude, and health service use of high school adolescent girls in Eritrea Methods: the protocol was reviewed and approved by the Scientific and Ethics Committees of Faculty of Nursing Sciences, University of Khartoum. Data was collected using pre-designed and pretested questionnaire emphasizing on reproductive health knowledge, attitude and practice. Sample size was calculated using proportion formula (α 0.01; power of 95%). Measures used were scores and proportions. Descriptive and inferential statistics, t-test and chi square at (α .01), 99% confidence interval were used to compare changes of pre and post-intervention scores using SPSS soft ware. Seventeen students were selected for peer educators by the school principals and other teachers based on inclusion criteria that include: good academic performance and acceptable behavior. One peer educator educated one group composed of 8-10 students for two months. One faculty member was selected to supervise peer educators. The principal investigator conducted the training of trainers and provided supervision and discussion to peer educators every two weeks until the end of intervention. Results: following informed consent, 627 students [164 in intervention and 463 in the control group] with a ratio of 1 to 3, were enrolled in the study. The mean age for the total study population was 15.4±1.0 years. The intervention group mean age was 15.3±1.0 year; while the control group had a mean age of 15.4±1.0. The mean ages for the study arms were similar (p= 0.4). The majority (96 %) of the study participants are from Tigrigna ethnic group. Reproductive knowledge scores which was calculated out of a total 61 grade points: intervention group (pretest 6.7 %, post-test 33.6 %; p= 0.0001); control group (pretest 7.3 %, posttest 7.3 %, p= 0.92). Proportion difference in attitude calculated out of 100%: intervention group (pretest 42.3 % post test 54.7% p= 0.001); controls group (pretest 45%, post test 44.8 p= 0.7). Proportion difference in Practice calculated out of 100 %: intervention group (pretest 15.4%, post test 80.4 % p= 0.0001); control group (pretest 16.8%, posttest 16.9 % p= 0.8). Mothers were quoted as major (> 90 %) source of reproductive health information. All focus group discussants and most of survey participants agreed on the urgent need of reproductive health information and services for adolescent girls. Conclusion: reproductive health knowledge and use of facilities is poor among adolescent girls in sub-urban Eretria. School-based peer reproductive health education is effective and is the best strategy to improve reproductive health knowledge and attitudes.

Keywords: reproductive health, adolescent girls, eretria, health education

Procedia PDF Downloads 330