Search results for: position error

Authors: A. I. Ma’ali, R. B. Adeniyi, A. Y. Badeggi, U. Mohammed

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An error estimation of the integrated formulation of the Lanczos tau method for some class of ordinary differential equations was reported. This paper is concern with the generalization of tau approximants and their corresponding error estimates for some class of ordinary differential equations (ODEs) characterized by m + s =3 (i.e for m =1, s=2; m=2, s=1; and m=3, s=0) where m and s are the order of differential equations and number of overdetermination, respectively. The general result obtained were validated with some numerical examples.

Keywords: approximant, error estimate, tau method, overdetermination

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Authors: Kyung Min Kang, Peng Mou, Dong Xiang, Yong Yang, Gang Shen

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In this paper, planet pin parallelism error, which is one of manufacturing error of planet carrier, is employed as a main variable to influence planet load sharing factor. This error is categorize two group: (i) pin parallelism error with rotation on the axis perpendicular to the tangent of base circle of gear(x axis rotation in this paper) (ii) pin parallelism error with rotation on the tangent axis of base circle of gear(y axis rotation in this paper). For this study, the planetary gear system in 1.5MW wind turbine is applied and pure torsional rigid body model of this planetary gear is built using Solidworks and MSC.ADAMS. Based on quantified parallelism error and simulation model, dynamics simulation of planetary gear is carried out to obtain dynamic mesh load results with each type of error and load sharing factor is calculated with mesh load results. Load sharing factor formula and the suggestion for planetary reliability design is proposed with the conclusion of this study.

Keywords: planetary gears, planet load sharing, MSC. ADAMS, parallelism error

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Authors: Keltoum Chahour, Mickael Binois

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Due to a lack of standardization during the invasive fractional flow reserve (FFR) procedure, the index is subject to many sources of uncertainties. In this paper, we investigate -through simulation- the effect of the (FFR) device position and configuration on the obtained value of the (FFR) fraction. For this purpose, we use computational fluid dynamics (CFD) in a 3D domain corresponding to a diseased arterial portion. The (FFR) pressure captor is introduced inside it with a given length and coefficient of bending to capture the (FFR) value. To get over the computational limitations, basically, the time of the simulation is about 2h 15min for one (FFR) value; we generate a Gaussian Process (GP) model for (FFR) prediction. The (GP) model indicates good accuracy and demonstrates the effective error in the measurement created by the random configuration of the pressure captor.

Keywords: fractional flow reserve, Gaussian processes, computational fluid dynamics, drift

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Authors: Khelifi Mustapha, A. Moulay lakhdar, I. Elawady

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We will study the unequal error protection for VQ image. We have used the Reed Solomon (RS) Codes as Channel coding because they offer better performance in terms of channel error correction over a binary output channel. One such channel (binary input and output) should be considered if it is the case of the application layer, because it includes all the features of the layers located below and on the what it is usually not feasible to make changes.

Keywords: vector quantization, channel error correction, Reed-Solomon channel coding, application

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Authors: Karchung, S. Ruangsinchaiwanich

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This paper presents open-loop vector control method of induction motor with space vector pulse width modulation (SVPWM) technique. Normally, the closed loop speed control is preferred and is believed to be more accurate. However, it requires a position sensor to track the rotor position which is not desirable to use it for certain workspace applications. This paper exhibits the performance of three-phase induction motor with the simplest control algorithm without the use of a position sensor nor an estimation block to estimate rotor position for sensorless control. The motor stator currents are measured and are transformed to synchronously rotating (d-q-axis) frame by use of Clarke and Park transformation. The actual control happens in this frame where the measured currents are compared with the reference currents. The error signal is fed to a conventional PI controller, and the corrected d-q voltage is generated. The controller outputs are transformed back to three phase voltages and are fed to SVPWM block which generates PWM signal for the voltage source inverter. The open loop vector control model along with SVPWM algorithm is modeled in MATLAB/Simulink software and is experimented and validated in TMS320F28335 DSP board.

Keywords: electric drive, induction motor, open-loop vector control, space vector pulse width modulation technique

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Authors: Yi Ming Zhang, Zhan Xi Wang, Hang Chen, Gang Wang

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Manual polishing has problems such as high labor intensity, low production efficiency and difficulty in guaranteeing the consistency of polishing quality. It is more and more necessary to replace manual polishing with robot polishing. Polishing force directly affects the quality of polishing, so accurate tracking and control of polishing force is one of the most important conditions for improving the accuracy of robot polishing. The traditional force control strategy is difficult to adapt to the strong coupling of force control and position control during the robot polishing process. Therefore, based on the analysis of force-based impedance control and position-based impedance control, this paper proposed a new type of adaptive controller. Based on force feedback control of active compliance control, the controller can adaptively estimate the stiffness and position of the external environment and eliminate the steady-state force error produced by traditional impedance control. The simulation results of the model shows that the adaptive controller has good adaptability to changing environmental positions and environmental stiffness, and can accurately track and control polishing force.

Keywords: robot polishing, force feedback, impedance control, adaptive control

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Authors: Mingyang Sun, Guozheng Yan, Dasheng Liu, Lei Yang

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Driven by the demand of intelligent monitoring in rehabilitation centers or hospitals, a high accuracy real-time location system based on UWB (ultra-wideband) technology was proposed. The system measures precise location of a specific person, traces his movement and visualizes his trajectory on the screen for doctors or administrators. Therefore, doctors could view the position of the patient at any time and find them immediately and exactly when something emergent happens. In our design process, different algorithms were discussed, and their errors were analyzed. In addition, we discussed about a , simple but effective way of correcting the antenna delay error, which turned out to be effective. By choosing the best algorithm and correcting errors with corresponding methods, the system attained a good accuracy. Experiments indicated that the ranging error of the system is lower than 7 cm, the locating error is lower than 20 cm, and the refresh rate exceeds 5 times per second. In future works, by embedding the system in wearable IoT (Internet of Things) devices, it could provide not only physical parameters, but also the activity status of the patient, which would help doctors a lot in performing healthcare.

Keywords: intelligent monitoring, ultra-wideband technology, real-time location, IoT devices, smart healthcare

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Authors: Youngji Lee, Yonghyeon Jeon, Sunyoung Bu, Philsu Kim

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The aim of this paper is to construct an algorithm of time step control for the error correction method most recently developed by one of the authors for solving stiff initial value problems. It is achieved with the generalized Chebyshev polynomial and the corresponding error correction method. The main idea of the proposed scheme is in the usage of the duplicated node points in the generalized Chebyshev polynomials of two different degrees by adding necessary sample points instead of re-sampling all points. At each integration step, the proposed method is comprised of two equations for the solution and the error, respectively. The constructed algorithm controls both the error and the time step size simultaneously and possesses a good performance in the computational cost compared to the original method. Two stiff problems are numerically solved to assess the effectiveness of the proposed scheme.

Keywords: stiff initial value problem, error correction method, generalized Chebyshev polynomial, node points

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Authors: Abimbola Adedeji, Ahmad Shauqi Zubir

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This paper examines the profitability and risk between investing in gold exchange traded funds (ETFs) and gold mutual funds compares to gold prices. The main focus in determining whether there are similarities or differences between those financial products is the tracking error. The importance of understanding the similarities or differences between the gold ETFs, gold mutual funds and gold prices is derived from the fact that gold ETFs and gold mutual funds are used as substitutions for investors who are looking to profit from gold prices although they are short in capital. 10 hypotheses were tested. There are 3 types of tracking error used. Tracking error 1 and 3 gives results that differentiate between types of ETFs and mutual funds, hence yielding the answers in answering the hypotheses that were developed. However, tracking error 2 failed to give the answer that could shed light on the questions raised in this study. All of the results in tracking error 2 technique only telling us that the difference between the ups and downs of the financial instruments are similar, statistically to the physical gold prices movement.

Keywords: gold etf, gold mutual funds, tracking error

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Authors: Anna Słupik, Patryk Wąsowski, Anna Mosiołek, Dariusz Białoszewski

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Introduction: Kinesiology Taping is one of the most popular techniques used for treatment and supporting physiological processes in sports medicine and physiotherapy. Often it is used to sensorimotor skills of lower limbs by athletes. The aim of the study was to determine the effect of the application of muscle Kinesiology Taping to feel the position setting in motion the joint active. Material and methods: The study involved 50 healthy people between 18 and 30 years of age, 30 men and 20 women (mean age 23.24 years). The participants were divided into two groups. The study group was qualified for Kinesiology Taping application (muscle application, type Y, for quadriceps femoris muscle), while the remaining people used the application made of plaster (placebo group). Testing was performed prior to applying taping, with the applied application (after 30 minutes), then 24 hours after wearing, and after removing the tape. Each evaluated joint position sense - Error of Active Reproduction of Joint Position. Results: The survey revealed no significant differences in measurement between the study group and the placebo group (p> 0.05). No significant differences in time taking into account all four measurements in the group with the applied CT application, which was supported by pairs (p> 0.05). Also in the placebo group showed no significant differences over time (p> 0.05). There was no significant difference between the errors committed in the direction of flexion and extension. Conclusions: 1. Application muscle Kinesiology Taping had no significant effect on the knee joint proprioception. Its use in order to improve sensorimotor seems therefore unjustified. 2. There are no differences between applications Kinesiology Taping and placebo indicates that the clinical effect of stretch tape is minimal or absent. 3. The results are the basis for the continuation of prospective, randomized trials of numerous and study group.

Keywords: joint position sense, kinesiology taping, knee joint, proprioception

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Authors: Jijun Shi, Lichen Sun, Jianchao Zhao, Lizhi Sun, Enjun Liu, Chongwu Guo

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Because of the consistency of pressure direction, more short cycle, and high sensitivity, Charging-Vacuum helium mass spectrometer leak testing technology is the most popular leak testing technology for the seal testing of the spacecraft parts, especially the small and medium size ones. Usually, auxiliary pump was used, and the minimum detectable leak rate could reach 5E-9Pa•m3/s, even better on certain occasions. Relative error is more important when evaluating the results. How to choose the reference leak, the background level of helium, and record formats would affect the leak rate tested. In the linearity range of leak testing system, it would reduce 10% relative error if the reference leak with larger leak rate was used, and the relative error would reduce obviously if the background of helium was low efficiently, the record format of decimal was used, and the more stable data were recorded.

Keywords: leak testing, spacecraft parts, relative error, error control

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Authors: Dinesh Inamadar, R. Venugopalan, K. Padmini

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An attempt has been made in the present communication to elucidate the efficacy of robust ANOVA methods to analyze horticultural field experimental data in the presence of outliers. Results obtained fortify the use of robust ANOVA methods as there was substantiate reduction in error mean square, and hence the probability of committing Type I error, as compared to the regular approach.

Keywords: outliers, robust ANOVA, horticulture, cook distance, type I error

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Authors: Omid Azimaraghi, Noushin Khazaei

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Background: Fluid therapy is an important aspect of the perioperative period and a major challenge for anesthesiologists. To authors best knowledge, there is a lack of strong guidance and evidence regarding the optimal approach to fluid therapy. Therefore a variety of medical devices have been introduced to help physicians. In this study, we aimed to evaluate the effectiveness of pleth variability index in guiding fluid therapy in different patient positions. Materials and Methods: Inclusion criteria consisted of patients aged 18-50 years old and classified as American Society of Anesthesiologists physical status I and II, who were candidates for elective thyroidectomy surgery. In total, 36 patients meeting the inclusion criteria were enrolled in the study. After induction of anesthesia and start of mechanical ventilation Pleth variability index was measured in the supine position, then patients were placed in Trendelenburg and reverse Trendelenburg position (30 degrees, 5 minutes); Pleth Variability Index has measured again in the mentioned positions. Results: Mean PVI (Pleth Variability Index) in the supine position was 14.3 ± 3.7 in comparison to 21.5 ± 4.3 in the reverse Trendelenburg position. The mean PVI in Trendelenburg position was 9.1 ± 2.0 in Trendelenburg position (p < 0.05). Conclusion: In conclusion, we found that Pleth Variability Index varies with patient position and this should be taken into account when using this index during fluid therapy.

Keywords: fluid therapy, Pleth Variability Index, position, surgery

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Authors: Chaiwat Tantarangsee

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The purposes of this study are 1) to study the effects of participatory error correction process and 2) to find out the students’ satisfaction of such error correction process. This study is a Quasi Experimental Research with single group, in which data is collected 5 times preceding and following 4 experimental studies of participatory error correction process including providing coded indirect corrective feedback in the students’ texts with error treatment activities. Samples include 28 2nd year English Major students, Faculty of Humanities and Social Sciences, Suan Sunandha Rajabhat University. Tool for experimental study includes the lesson plan of the course; Reading and Writing English for Academic Purposes II, and tools for data collection include 5 writing tests of short texts and a questionnaire. Based on formative evaluation of the students’ writing ability prior to and after each of the 4 experiments, the research findings disclose the students’ higher scores with statistical difference at 0.05. Moreover, in terms of the effect size of such process, it is found that for mean of the students’ scores prior to and after the 4 experiments; d equals 1.0046, 1.1374, 1.297, and 1.0065 respectively. It can be concluded that participatory error correction process enables all of the students to learn equally well and there is improvement in their ability to write short texts. Finally, the students’ overall satisfaction of the participatory error correction process is in high level (Mean=4.32, S.D.=0.92).

Keywords: coded indirect corrective feedback, participatory error correction process, error treatment, humanities and social sciences

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Authors: R. Sabre

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This work focuses on the symmetric alpha stable process with continuous time frequently used in modeling the signal with indefinitely growing variance, often observed with an unknown additive error. The objective of this paper is to estimate this error from discrete observations of the signal. For that, we propose a method based on the smoothing of the observations via Jackson polynomial kernel and taking into account the width of the interval where the spectral density is non-zero. This technique allows avoiding the “Aliasing phenomenon” encountered when the estimation is made from the discrete observations of a process with continuous time. We have studied the convergence rate of the estimator and have shown that the convergence rate improves in the case where the spectral density is zero at the origin. Thus, we set up an estimator of the additive error that can be subtracted for approaching the original signal without error.

Keywords: spectral density, stable processes, aliasing, non parametric

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Authors: Ashwani Kumar

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GPS plays an important role in everyday life for safe and convenient transportation. While pedestrians use hand held devices to know their position in a city, vehicles in intelligent transport systems use relatively sophisticated GPS receivers for estimating their current position. However, in urban areas where the GPS satellites are occluded by tall buildings, trees and reflections of GPS signals from nearby vehicles, GPS position estimation becomes poor. In this work, an exhaustive GPS data is collected at a single point in urban area under different times of day and under dynamic environmental conditions. The data is analyzed and statistical refinement methods are used to obtain optimal position estimate among all the measured positions. The results obtained are compared with publically available datasets and obtained position estimation refinement results are promising.

Keywords: global positioning system, statistical approach, intelligent transport systems, least squares estimation

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Authors: Arun Moorthy

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Quantum computing promises to provide algorithmic speedups for a number of tasks; however, similar to classical computing, effective error-correcting codes are needed. Current quantum computers require costly equipment to control each particle, so having fewer particles to control is ideal. Although traditional quantum computers are built using qubits (2-level systems), qudits (more than 2-levels) are appealing since they can have an equivalent computational space using fewer particles, meaning fewer particles need to be controlled. Currently, qudit quantum error-correction codes are available for different level qudit systems; however, these codes have sometimes overly specific constraints. When building a qudit system, it is important for researchers to have access to many codes to satisfy their requirements. This project addresses two methods to increase the number of quantum error correcting codes available to researchers. The first method is generating new codes for a given set of parameters. The second method is generating new error-correction codes by using existing codes as a starting point to generate codes for another level (i.e., a 5-level system code on a 2-level system). So, this project builds a website that researchers can use to generate new error-correction codes or codes based on existing codes.

Keywords: qudit, error correction, quantum, qubit

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Authors: Louella Nicole Gamao

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Writing in English is accounted as a complex skill and process for foreign language learners who commit errors in writing are found as an inevitable part of language learners' writing. This study aims to explore and analyze the learners of English-as-a foreign Language (EFL) freewriting in a University in Taiwan by identifying the category of mistakes that often appear in their freewriting activity and analyzing the learners' awareness of each error. Hopefully, this present study will be able to gain further information about students' errors in their English writing that may contribute to further understanding of the benefits of freewriting activity that can be used for future purposes as a powerful tool in English writing courses for EFL classes. The present study adopted the framework of error analysis proposed by Dulay, Burt, and Krashen (1982), which consisted of a compilation of data, identification of errors, classification of error types, calculation of frequency of each error, and error interpretation. Survey questionnaires regarding students' awareness of errors were also analyzed and discussed. Using quantitative and qualitative approaches, this study provides a detailed description of the errors found in the students'freewriting output, explores the similarities and differences of the students' errors in both academic writing and freewriting, and lastly, analyzes the students' perception of their errors.

Keywords: error, EFL, freewriting, taiwan, english

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Authors: Bashar Albaalbaki, Roger E. Khayat

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This work is a comparative study on the effect of Delaunay triangulation algorithms on discretization error for conduction-convection conservation problems. A structured triangulation and many unstructured Delaunay triangulations using three popular algorithms for node placement strategies are used. The numerical method employed is the vertex-centered finite volume method. It is found that when the computational domain can be meshed using a structured triangulation, the discretization error is lower for structured triangulations compared to unstructured ones for only low Peclet number values, i.e. when conduction is dominant. However, as the Peclet number is increased and convection becomes more significant, the unstructured triangulations reduce the discretization error. Also, no statistical correlation between triangulation angle extremums and the discretization error is found using 200 samples of randomly generated Delaunay and non-Delaunay triangulations. Thus, the angle extremums cannot be an indicator of the discretization error on their own and need to be combined with other triangulation quality measures, which is the subject of further studies.

Keywords: conduction-convection problems, Delaunay triangulation, discretization error, finite volume method

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Authors: Ahmed Abdolkhalig, Rastko Zivanovic

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This paper evaluates the Total Vector Error of an estimated Phasor as define in IEEE C37.118 standard within different medium access in Local Area Networks (LAN). Three different LAN models (CSMA/CD, CSMA/AMP, and Switched Ethernet) are evaluated. The Total Vector Error of the estimated Phasor has been evaluated for the effect of Nodes Number under the standardized network Band-width values defined in IEC 61850-9-2 communication standard (i.e. 0.1, 1, and 10 Gbps).

Keywords: phasor, local area network, total vector error, IEEE C37.118, IEC 61850

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Authors: Diteboho Xaba, Kolentino Mpeta, Tlotliso Qejoe

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This paper assesses the in-sample forecasting of the South African exchange rates comparing a linear ARIMA model and a SETAR model. The study uses a monthly adjusted data of South African exchange rates with 420 observations. Akaike information criterion (AIC) and the Schwarz information criteria (SIC) are used for model selection. Mean absolute error (MAE), root mean squared error (RMSE) and mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) are error metrics used to evaluate forecast capability of the models. The Diebold –Mariano (DM) test is employed in the study to check forecast accuracy in order to distinguish the forecasting performance between the two models (ARIMA and SETAR). The results indicate that both models perform well when modelling and forecasting the exchange rates, but SETAR seemed to outperform ARIMA.

Keywords: ARIMA, error metrices, model selection, SETAR

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Authors: Thomas Odaker, Dieter Kranzlmueller, Jens Volkert

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We present an approach to triangle mesh simplification designed to be executed on the GPU. We use a quadric error metric to calculate an error value for each vertex of the mesh and order all vertices based on this value. This step is followed by the parallel removal of a number of vertices with the lowest calculated error values. To allow for the parallel removal of multiple vertices we use a set of per-vertex boundaries that prevent mesh foldovers even when simplification operations are performed on neighbouring vertices. We execute multiple iterations of the calculation of the vertex errors, ordering of the error values and removal of vertices until either a desired number of vertices remains in the mesh or a minimum error value is reached. This parallel approach is used to speed up the simplification process while maintaining mesh topology and avoiding foldovers at every step of the simplification.

Keywords: computer graphics, half edge collapse, mesh simplification, precomputed simplification, topology preserving

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Authors: Neetu Manocha

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Image segmentation is a technique where a picture is parted into distinct parts having similar features which have a place with similar items. Various segmentation strategies have been proposed as of late by prominent analysts. But, after ultimate thorough research, the novelists have analyzed that generally, the old methods do not decrease the segmentation error rate. Then author finds the technique HIST-SI to decrease the segmentation error rates. In this technique, cluster-based and threshold-based segmentation techniques are merged together. After then, to improve the result of HIST-SI, the authors added the method of filtering and linking in this technique named Imp_HIST-SI to decrease the segmentation error rates. The goal of this research is to find a new technique to decrease the segmentation error rates and produce much better results than the HIST-SI technique. For testing the proposed technique, a dataset of Bhuvan – a National Geoportal developed and hosted by ISRO (Indian Space Research Organisation) is used. Experiments are conducted using Scikit-image & OpenCV tools of Python, and performance is evaluated and compared over various existing image segmentation techniques for several matrices, i.e., Mean Square Error (MSE) and Peak Signal Noise Ratio (PSNR).

Keywords: satellite image, image segmentation, edge detection, error rate, MSE, PSNR, HIST-SI, linking, filtering, imp_HIST-SI

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Authors: Cinna Soltanpur, Mohammad Ghamari, Behzad Momahed Heravi, Fatemeh Zare

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Low-density parity-check (LDPC) codes have been shown to deliver capacity approaching performance; however, problematic graphical structures (e.g. trapping sets) in the Tanner graph of some LDPC codes can cause high error floors in bit-error-ratio (BER) performance under conventional sum-product algorithm (SPA). This paper presents a serial concatenation scheme to avoid the trapping sets and to lower the error floors of LDPC code. The outer code in the proposed concatenation is the LDPC, and the inner code is a high rate array code. This approach applies an interactive hybrid process between the BCJR decoding for the array code and the SPA for the LDPC code together with bit-pinning and bit-flipping techniques. Margulis code of size (2640, 1320) has been used for the simulation and it has been shown that the proposed concatenation and decoding scheme can considerably improve the error floor performance with minimal rate loss.

Keywords: concatenated coding, low–density parity–check codes, array code, error floors

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Authors: Sunyoung Bu, Wonkyu Chung, Philsu Kim

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In this paper, we introduce a method for improving the embedded Runge-Kutta-Fehlberg 4(5) method. At each integration step, the proposed method is comprised of two equations for the solution and the error, respectively. This solution and error are obtained by solving an initial value problem whose solution has the information of the error at each integration step. The constructed algorithm controls both the error and the time step size simultaneously and possesses a good performance in the computational cost compared to the original method. For the assessment of the effectiveness, EULR problem is numerically solved.

Keywords: embedded Runge-Kutta-Fehlberg method, initial value problem, EULR problem, integration step

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Authors: Fang Ye, Han Yu, Yibing Li

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Radio interference is one of the major concerns in using the global positioning system (GPS) for civilian and military applications. Interference signals are produced not only through all electronic systems but also illegal jammers. Among different types of interferences, continuous wave (CW) interference has strong adverse impacts on the quality of the received signal. In this paper, we make more detailed analysis for CW interference effects on GPS signal quality. Based on the C/A code spectrum lines, the influence of CW interference on the acquisition performance of GPS receivers is further analysed. This influence is supported by simulation results using GPS software receiver. As the most important user parameter of GPS receivers, the mathematical expression of bit error probability is also derived in the presence of CW interference, and the expression is consistent with the Monte Carlo simulation results. The research on CW interference provides some theoretical gist and new thoughts on monitoring the radio noise environment and improving the anti-jamming ability of GPS receivers.

Keywords: GPS, CW interference, acquisition performance, bit error probability, Monte Carlo

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Authors: Houcine Naim, Abdelatif Hassini, Noureddine Benabadji, Alex Van Den Bossche

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In this paper, two models to estimate the overall monthly average daily radiation on a horizontal surface were applied to the site of Oran (35.38 ° N, 0.37 °W). We present a comparison between the first one is a regression equation of the Angstrom type and the second model is developed by the present authors some modifications were suggested using as input parameters: the astronomical parameters as (latitude, longitude, and altitude) and meteorological parameters as (relative humidity). The comparisons are made using the mean bias error (MBE), root mean square error (RMSE), mean percentage error (MPE), and mean absolute bias error (MABE). This comparison shows that the second model is closer to the experimental values that the model of Angstrom.

Keywords: meteorology, global radiation, Angstrom model, Oran

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Authors: Filippo Portera

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Usually standard algorithms employ a loss where each error is the mere absolute difference between the true value and the prediction, in case of a regression task. In the present, we present several error weighting schemes that are a generalization of the consolidated routine. We study both a binary classification model for Support Vextor Classification and a regression net for Multylayer Perceptron. Results proves that the error is never worse than the standard procedure and several times it is better.

Keywords: loss, binary-classification, MLP, weights, regression

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Authors: Watchareeporn Chaimongkol

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In this paper, we compare the statistical measures accuracy of composite forecasting model to estimate automobile customer demand in Thailand. A modified simple exponential smoothing and autoregressive integrate moving average (ARIMA) forecasting model is built to estimate customer demand of passenger cars, instead of using information of historical sales data. Our model takes into account special characteristic of the Thai automobile market such as sales promotion, advertising and publicity, petrol price, and interest rate for loan. We evaluate our forecasting model by comparing forecasts with actual data using six accuracy measurements, mean absolute percentage error (MAPE), geometric mean absolute error (GMAE), symmetric mean absolute percentage error (sMAPE), mean absolute scaled error (MASE), median relative absolute error (MdRAE), and geometric mean relative absolute error (GMRAE).

Keywords: composite forecasting, simple exponential smoothing model, autoregressive integrate moving average model selection, accuracy measurements

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Authors: P. Adibi, M. R. Ansari, S. Jafari, B. Habibpour, E. Salimi

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In this paper, the effects of gas and liquid superficial inlet velocities and for the first time the effect of liquid holdup on slug initiation position are studied experimentally. Empirical correlations are also presented based on the obtained results. The tests are conducted for three liquid holdups in a long horizontal channel with dimensions of 5cmx10cm and 36m length. Usl and Usg rated as to 0.11m/s to 0.56m/s and 1.88m/s to 13m/s, respectively. The obtained results show that as αl=0.25, slug initiation position is increasing monotonically with Usl and Usg. During αl=0.50, slug initiation position is almost constant. For αl=0.75, slug initiation position is decreasing monotonically with Usl and Usg. In the case of equal void fraction of phases, generated slugs are weakly (low pressure). However, for the unequal void fraction of phases strong slugs (high pressure) are formed.

Keywords: liquid holdup, long horizontal channel, slug initiation position, superficial inlet velocity

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