Search results for: naïve portfolio

Authors: Miang Hong Ngerng, Noor Diyana Jasme, May Jin Theong

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Volatile market environment is inevitable. Fund managers are struggling to choose the right strategy to survive and overcome uncertainties and adverse market movement. Therefore, finding certainty in the mist of uncertainty future is one of the key performance objectives for fund managers. Current available theoretical results are not practical due to strong reliance on the investment assumption made. This paper is to identify the component that can be forecasted in Ex-ante setting which is the realistic situation facing a fund manager in the actual execution of asset allocation in portfolio management. Partial lease square method was used to generate an index with 10 years accounting data from 191 companies listed in KLSE. The result shows that the index reflects the inner nature of the business and up to 30% of the stock return can be explained by the index.

Keywords: active portfolio management, asset allocation ex-ante investment, asset class, partial lease square

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Authors: Alaa Alrakaf, Sk. Md. Mizanur Rahman

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Since the last two decades’ Arabic natural language processing (ANLP) has become increasingly much more important. One of the key issues related to ANLP is ambiguity. In Arabic language different pronunciation of one word may have a different meaning. Furthermore, ambiguity also has an impact on the effectiveness and efficiency of Machine Translation (MT). The issue of ambiguity has limited the usefulness and accuracy of the translation from Arabic to English. The lack of Arabic resources makes ambiguity problem more complicated. Additionally, the orthographic level of representation cannot specify the exact meaning of the word. This paper looked at the diacritics of Arabic language and used them to disambiguate a word. The proposed approach of word sense disambiguation used Diacritizer application to Diacritize Arabic text then found the most accurate sense of an ambiguous word using Naïve Bayes Classifier. Our Experimental study proves that using Arabic Diacritics with Naïve Bayes Classifier enhances the accuracy of choosing the appropriate sense by 23% and also decreases the ambiguity in machine translation.

Keywords: Arabic natural language processing, machine learning, machine translation, Naive bayes classifier, word sense disambiguation

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Authors: Jai Heui Kim, Sotheara Veng

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This paper studies the portfolio optimization problem for a pension fund under a hybrid model of stochastic volatility and constant elasticity of variance (CEV) using asymptotic analysis method. When the volatility component is fast mean-reverting, it is able to derive asymptotic approximations for the value function and the optimal strategy for general utility functions. Explicit solutions are given for the exponential and hyperbolic absolute risk aversion (HARA) utility functions. The study also shows that using the leading order optimal strategy results in the value function, not only up to the leading order, but also up to first order correction term. A practical strategy that does not depend on the unobservable volatility level is suggested. The result is an extension of the Merton's solution when stochastic volatility and elasticity of variance are considered simultaneously.

Keywords: asymptotic analysis, constant elasticity of variance, portfolio optimization, stochastic optimal control, stochastic volatility

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Authors: Usama Ahmed

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Data mining is the process of analyze data which are used to predict helpful information. It is the field of research which solve various type of problem. In data mining, classification is an important technique to classify different kind of data. Diabetes is most common disease. This paper implements different classification technique using Waikato Environment for Knowledge Analysis (WEKA) on diabetes dataset and find which algorithm is suitable for working. The best classification algorithm based on diabetic data is Naïve Bayes. The accuracy of Naïve Bayes is 76.31% and take 0.06 seconds to build the model.

Keywords: data mining, classification, diabetes, WEKA

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Authors: F. Gökgöz, M. E. Atmaca

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Electricity has an indispensable role in human daily life, technological development and economy. It is a special product or service that should be instantaneously generated and consumed. Sources of the world are limited so that effective and efficient use of them is very important not only for human life and environment but also for technological and economic development. Competitive electricity market is one of the important way that provides suitable platform for effective and efficient use of electricity. Besides benefits, it brings along some risks that should be carefully managed by a market player like Electricity Generation Company. Risk management is an essential part in market players’ decision making. In this paper, risk management through diversification is applied with the help of Value at Risk methods for case studies. Performance of optimal electricity sale solutions are measured and the portfolio performance has been evaluated via Sharpe-Ratio, and compared with conventional approach. Biennial historical electricity price data of Turkish Day Ahead Market are used to demonstrate the approach.

Keywords: electricity market, portfolio optimization, risk management, value at risk

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Authors: Deniz Peksen

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This thesis aims to predict trend movement of closing price of stock and to maximize portfolio by utilizing the predictions. In this context, the study aims to define a stock portfolio strategy from models created by using Logistic Regression, Gradient Boosting and Random Forest. Recently, predicting the trend of stock price has gained a significance role in making buy and sell decisions and generating returns with investment strategies formed by machine learning basis decisions. There are plenty of studies in the literature on the prediction of stock prices in capital markets using machine learning methods but most of them focus on closing prices instead of the direction of price trend. Our study differs from literature in terms of target definition. Ours is a classification problem which is focusing on the market trend in next 20 trading days. To predict trend direction, fourteen years of data were used for training. Following three years were used for validation. Finally, last three years were used for testing. Training data are between 2002-06-18 and 2016-12-30 Validation data are between 2017-01-02 and 2019-12-31 Testing data are between 2020-01-02 and 2022-03-17 We determine Hold Stock Portfolio, Best Stock Portfolio and USD-TRY Exchange rate as benchmarks which we should outperform. We compared our machine learning basis portfolio return on test data with return of Hold Stock Portfolio, Best Stock Portfolio and USD-TRY Exchange rate. We assessed our model performance with the help of roc-auc score and lift charts. We use logistic regression, Gradient Boosting and Random Forest with grid search approach to fine-tune hyper-parameters. As a result of the empirical study, the existence of uptrend and downtrend of five stocks could not be predicted by the models. When we use these predictions to define buy and sell decisions in order to generate model-based-portfolio, model-based-portfolio fails in test dataset. It was found that Model-based buy and sell decisions generated a stock portfolio strategy whose returns can not outperform non-model portfolio strategies on test dataset. We found that any effort for predicting the trend which is formulated on stock price is a challenge. We found same results as Random Walk Theory claims which says that stock price or price changes are unpredictable. Our model iterations failed on test dataset. Although, we built up several good models on validation dataset, we failed on test dataset. We implemented Random Forest, Gradient Boosting and Logistic Regression. We discovered that complex models did not provide advantage or additional performance while comparing them with Logistic Regression. More complexity did not lead us to reach better performance. Using a complex model is not an answer to figure out the stock-related prediction problem. Our approach was to predict the trend instead of the price. This approach converted our problem into classification. However, this label approach does not lead us to solve the stock prediction problem and deny or refute the accuracy of the Random Walk Theory for the stock price.

Keywords: stock prediction, portfolio optimization, data science, machine learning

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Authors: Abdullah Abu-Tineh, Hissa Sadiq, Fatma Al-Mutawah, Youmen Chabaan

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The current study examined the experiences of educators in Qatar with the licensure process currently implemented at government schools. Using a survey study design, a total of 1,669 participants expressed their perceptions on the strengths and weaknesses of the licensure system, the professional standards, and the professional portfolio. Findings included participants’ beliefs on the importance of the licensure system in improving their performance, the necessity of using the professional standards as tools for professional growth and development, the importance of refining the professional portfolio for authenticity and reliability, and the inclusion of multiple sources of evidence, such as classroom observations, interviews, student learning outcomes, and surveys. Documenting teachers’ and school leaders’ voices was fundamental in finding ways to successfully drive future developments of the licensure system. The findings may also provide implications for other countries interested in developing or refining their own appraisal systems.

Keywords: licensure system, educator voice, professional standards, professional portfolio

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Authors: F. Gökgöz, M. E. Atmaca

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Electricity plays an indispensable role in human life and the economy. It is a unique product or service that must be balanced instantaneously, as electricity is not stored, generation and consumption should be proportional. Effective and efficient use of electricity is very important not only for society, but also for the environment. A competitive electricity market is one of the best ways to provide a suitable platform for effective and efficient use of electricity. On the other hand, it carries some risks that should be carefully managed by the market players. Risk management is an essential part in market players’ decision making. In this paper, risk management through diversification is applied with the help of Markowitz’s Mean-variance, Down-side and Semi-variance methods for a case study. Performance of optimal electricity sale solutions are measured and evaluated via Sharpe-Ratio, and the optimal portfolio solutions are improved. Two years of historical weekdays’ price data of the Turkish Day Ahead Market are used to demonstrate the approach.

Keywords: electricity market, portfolio optimization, risk management in electricity market, sharpe ratio

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Authors: Carlos Arias-Alcaide, Cristina Soguero-Ruiz, Paloma Santos-Álvarez, Adrián García-Romero, Inmaculada Mora-Jiménez

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Analysing clinical data with computers in such a way that have an impact on the practitioners’ workflow is a challenge nowadays. This paper provides a first approach for monitoring the health status of COVID-19 patients through the use of some biomarkers (blood tests) and the simplest Naïve Bayes classifier. Data of two Spanish hospitals were considered, showing the potential of our approach to estimate reasonable posterior probabilities even some days before the event.

Keywords: Bayesian model, blood biomarkers, classification, health tracing, machine learning, posterior probability

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Authors: Norm Josephy, Lucy Kimball, Victoria Steblovskaya

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Hedging of a portfolio of European options under proportional transaction costs is considered. Our discrete time financial market model extends the binomial market model with transaction costs to the case where the underlying stock price ratios are distributed over a bounded interval rather than over a two-point set. An optimal hedging strategy is chosen from a set of admissible non-self-financing hedging strategies. Our approach to optimal hedging of a portfolio of options is based on theoretical foundation that includes determination of a no-arbitrage option price interval as well as on properties of the non-self-financing strategies and their residuals. A computational algorithm for optimizing an investor relevant criterion over the set of admissible non-self-financing hedging strategies is developed. Applicability of our approach is demonstrated using both simulated data and real market data.

Keywords: extended binomial model, non-self-financing hedging, optimization, proportional transaction costs

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Authors: Kasirga Yildirak, Ismail Gur

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We propose a model to measure hail risk of an Agricultural Insurance portfolio. Hail is one of the major catastrophic event that causes big amount of loss to an insurer. Moreover, it is very hard to predict due to its strange atmospheric characteristics. We make use of parcel based claims data on apricot damage collected by the Turkish Agricultural Insurance Pool (TARSIM). As our ultimate aim is to compute the loadings assigned to specific parcels, we build a portfolio risk model that makes use of PD and the severity of the exposures. PD is computed by Spherical-Linear and Circular –Linear regression models as the data carries coordinate information and seasonality. Severity is mapped into integer brackets so that Probability Generation Function could be employed. Individual regressions are run on each clusters estimated on different criteria. Loss distribution is constructed by Panjer Recursion technique. We also show that one risk-one crop model can easily be extended to the multi risk–multi crop model by assuming conditional independency.

Keywords: hail insurance, spherical regression, circular regression, spherical clustering

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Authors: Timothy J. Considine, Edward J. M. Manderson

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This paper develops an econometric forecasting system of energy demand coupled with engineering-economic models of energy supply. The framework is used to quantify the impact of state-level renewable portfolio standards (RPSs) achieved predominately with solar generation on electricity rates, electricity consumption, and environmental quality. We perform the analysis using Arizona’s RPS as a case study. We forecast energy demand in Arizona out to 2035, and find by this time the state will require an additional 35 million MWh of electricity generation. If Arizona implements its RPS when supplying this electricity demand, we find there will be a substantial increase in electricity rates (relative to a business-as-usual scenario of reliance on gas-fired generation). Extending the current regime of tax credits can greatly reduce this increase, at the taxpayers’ expense. We find that by 2025 Arizona’s RPS will implicitly abate carbon dioxide emissions at a cost between $101 and $135 per metric ton, and by 2035 abatement costs are between $64 and $112 per metric ton (depending on the future evolution of nature gas prices).

Keywords: electricity demand, renewable portfolio standard, solar, carbon dioxide

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Authors: Brindha Senthil Kumar, Payel Chakraborty, Senthil Kumar Nachimuthu, Arindam Maitra, Prem Nath

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Gastric cancer is predominantly caused by demographic and diet factors as compared to other cancer types. The aim of the study is to predict Early Gastric Cancer (ECG) from diet and lifestyle factors using supervised machine learning algorithms. For this study, 160 healthy individual and 80 cases were selected who had been followed for 3 years (2016-2019), at Civil Hospital, Aizawl, Mizoram. A dataset containing 11 features that are core risk factors for the gastric cancer were extracted. Supervised machine algorithms: Logistic Regression, Naive Bayes, Support Vector Machine (SVM), Multilayer perceptron, and Random Forest were used to analyze the dataset using Python Jupyter Notebook Version 3. The obtained classified results had been evaluated using metrics parameters: minimum_false_positives, brier_score, accuracy, precision, recall, F1_score, and Receiver Operating Characteristics (ROC) curve. Data analysis results showed Naive Bayes - 88, 0.11; Random Forest - 83, 0.16; SVM - 77, 0.22; Logistic Regression - 75, 0.25 and Multilayer perceptron - 72, 0.27 with respect to accuracy and brier_score in percent. Naive Bayes algorithm out performs with very low false positive rates as well as brier_score and good accuracy. Naive Bayes algorithm classification results in predicting ECG showed very satisfactory results using only diet cum lifestyle factors which will be very helpful for the physicians to educate the patients and public, thereby mortality of gastric cancer can be reduced/avoided with this knowledge mining work.

Keywords: Early Gastric cancer, Machine Learning, Diet, Lifestyle Characteristics

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Authors: Susanna Asatryan

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The author will introduce the Language Portfolio for master course student-teachers of Yerevan Brusov State University of Languages and Social Sciences The overall aim of the Portfolio is to serve as a visual didactic tool for the pedagogical internship of master students in specialization “A Foreign Language Teacher of High Schools and Professional Educational Institutions”, based on the principles and fundamentals of the EPOSTL. The author will present the parts of the Portfolio, including the programme, goal and objectives of student-teacher’s internship, content and organization, expected outputs and the principles of the student’s self-assessment, based on Can-do philosophy suggested by the EPOSTL. The Language Portfolio for master course student-teachers outlines the distinctive stages of their scientific-pedagogical internship. In Lesson Observation and Teaching section student teachers present thematic planning of the syllabus course, including individual lesson plan-description and analysis of the lesson. In Realization of the Scientific-Pedagogical Research section student-teachers introduce the plan of their research work, its goal, objectives, steps of procedure and outcomes. In Educational Activity section student-teachers analyze the educational sides of the lesson, they introduce the plan of the extracurricular activity, provide psycho-pedagogical description of the group or the whole class, and outline extracurricular entertainments. In the Dossier the student-teachers store up the entire instructional “product” during their pedagogical internship: e.g. samples of surveys, tests, recordings, videos, posters, postcards, pupils’ poems, photos, pictures, etc. The author’s presentation will also cover the Self Assessment Checklist, which highlights the main didactic competences of student-teachers, extracted from the EPOSTL. The Self Assessment Checklist is introduced with some innovations, taking into consideration the local educational objectives that Armenian students come across with. The students’ feedback on the use of the Portfolio will also be presented.

Keywords: internship, lesson observation, can-do philosophy, self-assessment

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Authors: Cristina Galván-Fernández

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Students differentiate the different contexts of their lives as well as employment, hobbies or studies. In higher education is needed to transfer the experiential knowledge to theory and viceversa. However, is difficult to achieve than students use their personal experiences and social readings for get the learning evidences. In an experience with 178 education students from Chile and Spain we have used an e-portfolio system and a methodology for 4 years with the aims of help them to: 1) self-regulate their learning process and 2) use social networks and professional experiences for make the learning evidences. These two objectives have been controlled by interviews to the same students in different moments and two questionnaires. The results of this study show that students recognize the ownership of their learning and progress in planning and reflection of their own learning.

Keywords: competences, e-portfolio, higher education, self-regulation

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Authors: Pranvera Shehaj

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Unlike any prior analysis on the withholding tax rates negotiated in tax treaties, this study looks at the treaty heterogeneity content, by investigating the impact of the residence country’s double tax relief method and of tax-sparing agreements, on the difference between developing countries’ domestic withholding taxes on dividends on one side, and treaty negotiated withholding taxes at source on portfolio dividends on the other side. Using a dyadic panel dataset of asymmetric double tax treaties between 2005 and 2019, this study suggests first that the difference between domestic and negotiated WHTs on portfolio dividends is higher when the OECD member uses the credit method, as compared to when it uses the exemption method. Second, results suggest that the inclusion of tax-sparing provisions vanishes the positive effect of the credit method at home on the difference between domestic and negotiated WHTs on portfolio dividends, incentivizing developing countries to negotiate higher withholding taxes.

Keywords: double tax treaties, asymmetric investments, withholding tax, dividends, double tax relief method, tax sparing

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Authors: Matthias Nnadi

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This paper investigates the relationship between premiums and returns in the short and long terms in European merger and acquisition (M&A) deals. The study employs Calendar Time Portfolio (CTP) model and find strong evidence that in the long run, premiums have a positive impact on performance, and we also establish evidence of a significant difference between the abnormal returns of the high premium paying portfolio and the low premium paying ones. Even in cases where all sub-portfolios show negative abnormal returns, the high premium category still outperforms the low premium category. Our findings have implications for companies engaging in acquisitions.

Keywords: mergers, premium, performance, returns, acquisitions

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Authors: Hadiza Abdullahi

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Sialic Acids and sialidases have been implicated in many disease states particularly bacterial and viral infections which are common opportunist infections of HIV disease. Their role in HIV/AIDS is contemplated. A study was carried out to determine Sialic Acid profile and Sialidase Activity in HIV infected and Apparently Healthy individuals, and also determine the relationship between the sialic acid levels and sialidase activity. Blood samples were collected from 200 subjects (150 HIV infected individuals and 50 apparently healthy individuals divided into four groups- HIV ART Naïve, HIV Stable (on ART but have been stable with no clinical episodes), HIV-OI (on ART with opportunistic infections), and Apparently Healthy). Complete Blood Count, Erythrocyte Surface Sialic Acid (ESSA), Free Serum Sialic Acid (FSSA) concentrations and Sialidase activity were determined for all 200 subjects. Analysis of variance (ANOVA) was used to compare the results of the different groups of HIV infected individuals as well as controls. The mean haemoglobin (HGB), Packed Cell Volume (PCV) and Red Blood Cells (RBC) concentrations were significantly lower (P ≤ 0.05) in the HIV groups compared with the apparently healthy groups. Anaemia and neutropaenia were the most common heamatological abnormalities observed in this study with highest prevalence of anaemia found in the ART naive group. The mean FSSA was 0.4±0.4mg/ml. There was a significant difference (p ≤ 0.05) between some groups. The highest levels of FSSA was observed in the HIV ART naïve (0.65±0.5mg/ml). The mean ESSA value for the study population was 0.54±0.35mg/ml with no significant difference (p ≤ 0.05) between groups. The mean sialidase activity values were 0.52±0.1 µmol/min/µl, 0.40±0.1 µmol/min/µl, 0.45±0.1 µmol/min/µl and 0.41±0.1 µmol/min/µl for the HIV ART naïve, HIV stable, HIV/OIs and apparently healthy groups respectively. No significant difference (p ≤ 0.05) was found between groups and also in gender and age. The finding in this study of higher mean sialidase activity and FSSA levels in the ART naïve HIV group compared with other groups indicate that the virus and other opportunistic pathogens may be sialidase producers in vivo which cleave off sialic acids from erythrocytes surface, leading to high levels of FSSA, anaemia and neutropaenia seen in this group. The higher ESSA concentration found in the HIV stable group along with lowest FSSA concentration in the group suggests the presence of sialyltransferases.

Keywords: erythrocyte surface sialic acid, free serum sialic acid, HIV, sialidase

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Authors: Zahra F. Al-Khateeb, Shenel Shekerzade, Hasna Boumenar, Siân M. Henson, Jordi L. Tremoleda, A. T. Michael-Titus

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Traumatic brain injury (TBI) is the leading cause of disability and death in young adults and also increases the risk ofneurodegeneration. The mechanisms linking moderate to severe TBI to neurodegeneration are not known. It has been proposed that cellular senescence inductionpost-injury could amplify neuroinflammation and induce long-term changes. The impact of these processes after injury to an immature brain has not been characterised yet. We carried out a controlled cortical impact injury (CCI) in juvenile 1 month-old male CD1 mice. Animals were anesthetised and received a unilateral CCI injury. The sham group received anaesthesia and had a craniotomy. A naïve group had no intervention. The brain tissue was analysed at 5 days and 35 days post-injury using immunohistochemistry and markers for microglia, astrocytes, and senescence. Compared tonaïve animals, injured mice showed an increased microglial and astrocytic reaction early post-injury, as reflected in Iba1 and GFAP markers, respectively; the GFAP increase persisted in the later phase. The senescence analysis showed a significant increase inγH2AX-53BP1 nuclear foci, 8-oxoguanine, p19ARF, p16INK4a, and p53 expression in naïve vs. sham groups and naïve vs. CCI groups, at 5 dpi. At 35 days, the difference was no longer statistically significant in all markers. The injury induced a decrease p21 expression vs. the naïve group, at 35 dpi. These results indicate the induction of a complex senescence response after immature brain injury. Some changes occur early and may reflect the activation/proliferation of non-neuronal cells post-injury that had been hindered, whereas changes such as p21 downregulation may reflect a delayed response and pro-repair processes.

Keywords: cellular senescence, traumatic brain injury, brain injury, controlled cortical impact

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Authors: Tea Poklepović, Zdravka Aljinović, Mario Matković

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Modern Portfolio Theory (MPT) according to Markowitz states that investors form mean-variance efficient portfolios which maximizes their utility. Markowitz proposed the standard deviation as a simple measure for portfolio risk and the lower semi-variance as the only risk measure of interest to rational investors. This paper uses a third volatility estimator based on intraday data and compares three efficient frontiers on the Croatian Stock Market. The results show that range-based volatility estimator outperforms both mean-variance and lower semi-variance model.

Keywords: variance, lower semi-variance, range-based volatility, MPT

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Authors: Guohong Wang, Hao Huang, Rui Xing, Liyan Tang, Yu Wang

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Start-ups are consistently under pressure to overcome liabilities of newness and smallness. They must focus on assembling resource and engaging constant renewal and repeated entrepreneurial activities to survive and grow. As an important form of resource, knowledge is constantly vital to start-ups, which will help start-ups with developing new product in hence forming competitive advantage. However, significant knowledge is usually needed to be identified and exploited from external entities, which makes it difficult to achieve knowledge transfer; with limited resources, it can be quite challenging for start-ups balancing the exploration and exploitation of knowledge. The research on knowledge transfer has become a relatively well-developed domain by indicating that knowledge transfer can be achieved through plenty of patterns, yet it is still under-explored that what processes and organizational practices help start-ups facilitating knowledge transfer for new product in the context portfolio entrepreneurship. Resource orchestration theory emphasizes the initiative and active management of company or the manager to explain the fulfillment of resource utility, which will help understand the process of managing knowledge as a certain kind of resource in start-ups. Drawing on the resource orchestration theory, this research aims to explore how knowledge transfer can be facilitated through resource orchestration. A qualitative single-case study of a sodium-ion battery new venture was conducted. The case company is sampled deliberately from representative industrial agglomeration areas in Liaoning Province, China. It is found that distinctive resource orchestration sub-processes are leveraged to facilitate knowledge transfer: (i) resource structuring makes knowledge available across the portfolio; (ii) resource bundling makes combines internal and external knowledge to form new knowledge; and (iii) resource harmonizing balances specific knowledge configurations across the portfolio. Meanwhile, by purposefully reallocating knowledge configurations to new product development in a certain new venture (exploration) and gradually adjusting knowledge configurations to being applied to existing products across the portfolio (exploitation), resource orchestration processes as a whole make exploration and exploitation of knowledge balanced. This study contributes to the knowledge management literature through proposing a resource orchestration view and depicting how knowledge transfer can be facilitated through different resource orchestration processes and mechanisms. In addition, by revealing the balancing process of exploration and exploitation of knowledge, and laying stress on the significance of the idea of making exploration and exploitation of knowledge balanced in the context of portfolio entrepreneurship, this study also adds specific efforts to entrepreneurship and strategy management literature.

Keywords: exploration and exploitation, knowledge transfer, new product development, portfolio entrepreneur, resource orchestration

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Authors: Yasmine Essafi Zouari, Aya Nasreddine

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Following a long inflationary period from the post-war era to the mid-1980s (+10.1% annually), France went through a moderate inflation period between 1986 and 2001 (+2.1% annually) and even lower inflation between 2002 and 2016 (+1.4% annually). In 2022, inflation in France increased rapidly and reached 4.5% over one year in March, according to INSEE estimates. Over a long period, even low inflation has an impact on portfolio value and households’ purchasing power. In such a context, inflation hedging should remain an important issue for investors. In particular, long-term investors, who are concerned with the protection of their wealth, seek to hold effective hedging assets. Considering a mixed-asset portfolio composed of housing assets (residential real estate in 150 Grand Paris communes) as well as financial assets, and using both correlation and regression analysis, results confirm the attribute of the direct housing investment as an inflation hedge especially particularly against its unexpected component. Further, cash and bonds were found to provide respectively a partial and an over hedge against unexpected inflation. Stocks act as a perverse hedge against unexpected inflation and provide no significant positive hedge against expected inflation.

Keywords: direct housing, inflation, hedging ability, optimal portfolio, Grand Paris metropolis

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Authors: Shajida M., Sakthiyadharshini N. P., Kamalesh S., Aswitha B.

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Natural Language Processing (NLP) continues to play a strategic part in complaint discovery and medicine discovery during the current epidemic. This abstract provides an overview of performance analysis with a combination of visualization and classification techniques of NLP for a medical chatbot. Sentiment analysis is an important aspect of NLP that is used to determine the emotional tone behind a piece of text. This technique has been applied to various domains, including medical chatbots. In this, we have compared the combination of the decision tree with heatmap and Naïve Bayes with Word Cloud. The performance of the chatbot was evaluated using accuracy, and the results indicate that the combination of visualization and classification techniques significantly improves the chatbot's performance.

Keywords: sentimental analysis, NLP, medical chatbot, decision tree, heatmap, naïve bayes, word cloud

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Authors: Darrol Stanley, Levan Efremidze, Jannie Rossouw

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We investigate the predictability of the USD/ZAR (South African Rand) exchange rate with sample entropy analytics for the period of 2004-2015. We calculate sample entropy based on the daily data of the exchange rate and conduct empirical implementation of several market timing rules based on these entropy signals. The dynamic investment portfolio based on entropy signals produces better risk adjusted performance than a buy and hold strategy. The returns are estimated on the portfolio values in U.S. dollars. These results are preliminary and do not yet account for reasonable transactions costs, although these are very small in currency markets.

Keywords: currency trading, entropy, market timing, risk factor model

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Authors: Atefeh Heydari, Mohammadali Tavakoli, Naomie Salim

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In recent years, we have witnessed that online reviews are the most important source of customers’ opinion. They are progressively more used by individuals and organisations to make purchase and business decisions. Unfortunately, for the reason of profit or fame, frauds produce deceptive reviews to hoodwink potential customers. Their activities mislead not only potential customers to make appropriate purchasing decisions and organisations to reshape their business, but also opinion mining techniques by preventing them from reaching accurate results. Spam reviews could be divided into two main groups, i.e. multiple and singleton spam reviews. Detecting a singleton spam review that is the only review written by a user ID is extremely challenging due to lack of clue for detection purposes. Singleton spam reviews are very harmful and various features and proofs used in multiple spam reviews detection are not applicable in this case. Current research aims to propose a novel supervised technique to detect singleton spam reviews. To achieve this, various features are proposed in this study and are to be combined with the most appropriate features extracted from literature and employed in a classifier. In order to compare the performance of different classifiers, SVM and naive Bayes classification algorithms were used for model building. The results revealed that SVM was more accurate than naive Bayes and our proposed technique is capable to detect singleton spam reviews effectively.

Keywords: classification algorithms, Naïve Bayes, opinion review spam detection, singleton review spam detection, support vector machine

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Authors: Alhusein Almahjoub, Dongyu Qiu

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This paper deals with the random access procedure in next-generation networks and presents the solution to reduce total service time (TST) which is one of the most important performance metrics in current and future internet of things (IoT) based networks. The proposed solution focuses on the calculation of optimal transmission probability which maximizes the success probability and reduces TST. It uses the information of several idle preambles in every time slot, and based on it, it estimates the number of backlogged IoT devices using Naïve Bayes estimation which is a type of supervised learning in the machine learning domain. The estimation of backlogged devices is necessary since optimal transmission probability depends on it and the eNodeB does not have information about it. The simulations are carried out in MATLAB which verify that the proposed solution gives excellent performance.

Keywords: random access, LTE/LTE-A, 5G, machine learning, Naïve Bayes estimation

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Authors: Rady A., Elsheshai A., Eltawel M.

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Introduction and Aim of work: Literature suggest that antipsychotic medications may decrease cortisol level, an effect that seems to be more present with second generation antipsychotic. Our study aims at assessing effect of long term use of antipsychotics on cortisol level Subjects and Methods: 30 chronic schizophrenic patients on antipsychotics compared to 20 drug naive schizophrenic patients as regards serum cortisol level Results: Cortisol level was significantly lower in chronic schizophrenic patients receiving antipsychotics compared to drug naive patients (P=0.002 <0.05) Conclusion: Antipsychotic medications seem to have the potential to decrease cortisol level in blood. Among hypothesis proposed in literature is the good control of pseudo stress due to psychotic features.

Keywords: schizophrenia, antipsychotic, cortisol, HPA

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Authors: Kumar Shashvat, Amol P. Bhondekar

Abstract:

In the midst of the five senses, odor is the most reminiscent and least understood. Odor testing has been mysterious and odor data fabled to most practitioners. The delinquent of recognition and classification of odor is important to achieve. The facility to smell and predict whether the artifact is of further use or it has become undesirable for consumption; the imitation of this problem hooked on a model is of consideration. The general industrial standard for this classification is color based anyhow; odor can be improved classifier than color based classification and if incorporated in machine will be awfully constructive. For cataloging of odor for peas, trees and cashews various discriminative approaches have been used Discriminative approaches offer good prognostic performance and have been widely used in many applications but are incapable to make effectual use of the unlabeled information. In such scenarios, generative approaches have better applicability, as they are able to knob glitches, such as in set-ups where variability in the series of possible input vectors is enormous. Generative models are integrated in machine learning for either modeling data directly or as a transitional step to form an indeterminate probability density function. The algorithms or models Linear Discriminant Analysis and Naive Bayes Classifier have been used for classification of the odor of cashews. Linear Discriminant Analysis is a method used in data classification, pattern recognition, and machine learning to discover a linear combination of features that typifies or divides two or more classes of objects or procedures. The Naive Bayes algorithm is a classification approach base on Bayes rule and a set of qualified independence theory. Naive Bayes classifiers are highly scalable, requiring a number of restraints linear in the number of variables (features/predictors) in a learning predicament. The main recompenses of using the generative models are generally a Generative Models make stronger assumptions about the data, specifically, about the distribution of predictors given the response variables. The Electronic instrument which is used for artificial odor sensing and classification is an electronic nose. This device is designed to imitate the anthropological sense of odor by providing an analysis of individual chemicals or chemical mixtures. The experimental results have been evaluated in the form of the performance measures i.e. are accuracy, precision and recall. The investigational results have proven that the overall performance of the Linear Discriminant Analysis was better in assessment to the Naive Bayes Classifier on cashew dataset.

Keywords: odor classification, generative models, naive bayes, linear discriminant analysis

Procedia PDF Downloads 355

Authors: Ali Al-Shehri, Abdulaziz Al-Qasim, Abdulkarim Sofi, Ali Yousef

Abstract:

The oil and gas industry has played a major role in improving the prosperity of mankind and driving the world economy. According to the International Energy Agency (IEA) and Integrated Environmental Assessment (EIA) estimates, the world will continue to rely heavily on hydrocarbons for decades to come. This growing energy demand mandates taking sustainability measures to prolong the availability of reliable and affordable energy sources, and ensure lowering its environmental impact. Unlike any other industry, the oil and gas upstream operations are energy-intensive and scattered over large zonal areas. These challenging conditions require unique sustainability solutions. In recent years there has been a concerted effort by the oil and gas industry to develop and deploy innovative technologies to: maximize efficiency, reduce carbon footprint, reduce CO2 emissions, and optimize resources and material consumption. In the past, the main driver for research and development (R&D) in the exploration and production sector was primarily driven by maximizing profit through higher hydrocarbon recovery and new discoveries. Environmental-friendly and sustainable technologies are increasingly being deployed to balance sustainability and profitability. Analyzing technology and its sustainability impact is increasingly being used in corporate decision-making for improved portfolio management and allocating valuable resources toward technology R&D.This paper articulates and discusses a novel workflow to identify strategic sustainable technologies for improved portfolio management by addressing existing and future upstream challenges. It uses a systematic approach that relies on sustainability key performance indicators (KPI’s) including energy efficiency quotient, carbon footprint, and CO2 emissions. The paper provides examples of various technologies including CCS, reducing water cuts, automation, using renewables, energy efficiency, etc. The use of 4IR technologies such as Artificial Intelligence, Machine Learning, and Data Analytics are also discussed. Overlapping technologies, areas of collaboration and synergistic relationships are identified. The unique sustainability analyses provide improved decision-making on technology portfolio management.

Keywords: sustainability, oil& gas, technology portfolio, key performance indicator

Procedia PDF Downloads 162

Authors: Jeonghwan Jeon

Abstract:

Recently, the industry and academia have been planning development through industry/university cooperation (IUC), and the government has been promoting alternative methods to achieve successful IUC. Representatively, business cultivation involves the lead university (regarding IUC), research and development (R&D), company support, professional manpower cultivation, and marketing, etc., and the scale of support expands every year. Research is performed by many academic researchers to achieve IUC and although satisfaction of their results is high, expectations are not being met and study of the main factor is insufficient. Therefore, this research improves on theirs by analysing the main factors influencing their satisfaction. Each factor is analysed by AHP, and portfolio analysis is performed on the importance and current satisfaction level. This will help improve satisfaction of business participants and ensure effective IUC in the future.

Keywords: industry/university cooperation, satisfaction, portfolio analysis, business participant

Procedia PDF Downloads 470