Search results for: mixed model lines

Authors: Ghorbanali Mohammadi

Abstract:

New approaches to sequencing mixed-model manufacturing systems are present. These approaches have attracted considerable attention due to their potential to deal with difficult optimization problems. This paper presents Multi-Objective Simulated Annealing Algorithms (MOSAA) approaches to the Just-In-Time (JIT) sequencing problem where workload-smoothing (WL) and the number of set-ups (St) are to be optimized simultaneously. Mixed-model assembly lines are types of production lines where varieties of product models similar in product characteristics are assembled. Moreover, this type of problem is NP-hard. Two annealing methods are proposed to solve the multi-objective problem and find an efficient frontier of all design configurations. The performances of the two methods are tested on several problems from the literature. Experimentation demonstrates the relative desirable performance of the presented methodology.

Keywords: scheduling, just-in-time, mixed-model assembly line, sequencing, simulated annealing

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Authors: Mehmet Savsar

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Several factors affect productivity of Food Processing Assembly Lines (FPAL). Engineers and line managers usually do not recognize some of these factors and underutilize their production/assembly lines. In this paper, a special food processing assembly line is studied in detail, and procedures are presented to illustrate how productivity and efficiency of such lines can be increased. The assembly line considered produces ten different types of freshly prepared salads on the same line, which is called mixed model assembly line. Problems causing delays and inefficiencies on the line are identified. Line balancing and related tools are used to increase line efficiency and minimize balance delays. The procedure and the approach utilized in this paper can be useful for the operation managers and industrial engineers dealing with similar assembly lines in food processing industry.

Keywords: assembly lines, line balancing, production efficiency, bottleneck

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Authors: Myung Hwan Na, Ho- Chun Song, EunHee Hong

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We widely use normal linear mixed-effects model to analysis data in repeated measurement. In case of detecting heteroscedasticity and the non-normality of the population distribution at the same time, normal linear mixed-effects model can give improper result of analysis. To achieve more robust estimation, we use heavy tailed linear mixed-effects model which gives more exact and reliable analysis conclusion than standard normal linear mixed-effects model.

Keywords: reliability, tires, field data, linear mixed-effects model

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Authors: Sakhon Woothipatanapan, Surasit Prakobkit

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This paper presents a model for analysis the induced voltage of transmission lines (energized) acting on neighboring distribution lines (de-energized). From environmental restrictions, 22 kV distribution lines need to be installed under 115 kV transmission lines. With the installation of the two parallel circuits like this, they make the induced voltage which can cause harm to operators. This work was performed with the ATP-EMTP modeling to analyze such phenomenon before field testing. Simulation results are used to find solutions to prevent danger to operators who are on the pole.

Keywords: transmission system, distribution system, induced voltage, off-line operation

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Authors: Zuoji Huang, Haiming Qian, Chunlin Wang, Jinyan Sun, Nan Xu

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In this paper, the strategy to extract double road edge lines from acquired road stripe image was explored. The workflow is as follows: the road stripes are acquired by probabilistic boosting tree algorithm and morphological algorithm immediately, and road centerlines are detected by thinning algorithm, so the initial road edge lines can be acquired along the road centerlines. Then we refine the results with big variation of local curvature of centerlines. Specifically, the energy function of edge line is constructed by gradient feature and spectral information, and Dijkstra algorithm is used to optimize the initial road edge lines. The Snake model is constructed to solve the fracture problem of intersection, and the discrete dynamic programming algorithm is used to solve the model. After that, we could get the final road network. Experiment results show that the strategy proposed in this paper can be used to extract the continuous and smooth road edge lines from high-resolution remote sensing images with an accuracy of 88% in our study area.

Keywords: road edge lines extraction, energy function, intersection fracture, Snake model

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Authors: Sadegh Abebi

Abstract:

There are problems with estimating time of product process of products, especially when there is variable serving time, like control stage. These problems will cause overestimation of process time. Layout constraints, reworking constraints and inflexible product schedule in multi product lines, needs a precise planning to reduce volume in particular situation of line stock. In this article, by analyzing real queue systems with layout constraints and by using concepts and principles of Markov chain in queue theory, a hybrid model has been presented. This model can be a base to assess queue systems with probable parameters of service. Here by presenting a case study, the proposed model will be described. so, production lines of a home application manufacturer will be analyzed.

Keywords: Queuing theory, Markov Chain, layout, line balance

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Authors: Unchalee Inkampa, Tuanjai Somboonwiwat

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Painting process of automobiles and automobile parts, which is a continuous process based on EDP (Electrode position paint, EDP). Through EDP, all work pieces will be continuously sent to the painting process. Work process can be divided into 2 groups based on the running time: Painting Room 1 and Painting Room 2. This leads to continuous operation. The problem that arises is waiting for workloads onto Painting Room. The grading process EDP to Painting Room is a major problem. Therefore, this paper aim to develop production sequencing method by applying EDP to painting process. It also applied fixed rate launching for painting room and earliest due date (EDD) for EDP process and swap pairwise interchange for waiting time to a minimum of machine. The result found that the developed method could improve painting reduced waiting time, on time delivery, meeting customers wants and improved productivity of painting unit.

Keywords: sequencing, mixed model lines, painting process, electrode position paint

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Authors: A. S. Mousa, F. Shoman

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We present a discrete game theoretical model with homogeneous individuals who make simultaneous decisions. In this model the strategy space of all individuals is a discrete and dichotomous set which consists of two strategies. We fully characterize the coherent, split and mixed strategies that form Nash equilibria and we determine the corresponding Nash domains for all individuals. We find all strategic thresholds in which individuals can change their mind if small perturbations in the parameters of the model occurs.

Keywords: coherent strategy, split strategy, pure strategy, mixed strategy, Nash equilibrium, game theory

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Authors: Zouhair Issa Ahmed, Ahmed Abdulrasool Ahmed, Falah Hassan Abdulsada

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This paper presents a layout of a factory using Pro-Model simulation by choosing the best layout that gives the highest productivity and least work in process. The general problem is to find the best sequence in which jobs pass between the machines which are compatible with the technological constraints and optimal with respect to some performance criteria. The best simulation with Pro-Model program increased productivity and reduced work in process by balancing lines of production compared with the current layout of factory when productivity increased from 45 products to 180 products through 720 hours.

Keywords: scheduling, Pro-Model, simulation, balancing lines of production, layout planning, WIP

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Authors: Mohsen Ziaee

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In this paper, a mixed integer linear programming (MILP) model is presented to solve the flexible job shop scheduling problem (FJSP). This problem is one of the hardest combinatorial problems. The objective considered is the minimization of the makespan. The computational results of the proposed MILP model were compared with those of the best known mathematical model in the literature in terms of the computational time. The results show that our model has better performance with respect to all the considered performance measures including relative percentage deviation (RPD) value, number of constraints, and total number of variables. By this improved mathematical model, larger FJS problems can be optimally solved in reasonable time, and therefore, the model would be a better tool for the performance evaluation of the approximation algorithms developed for the problem.

Keywords: scheduling, flexible job shop, makespan, mixed integer linear programming

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Authors: Subhadip Biswas, Shivendra Maurya, Satish Chandra, Indrajit Ghosh

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Developing speed model is a challenging task particularly under mixed traffic condition where the traffic composition plays a significant role in determining vehicular speed. The present research has been conducted to model individual vehicular speed in the context of mixed traffic on an urban arterial. Traffic speed and volume data have been collected from three midblock arterial road sections in New Delhi. Using the field data, a volume based speed prediction model has been developed adopting the methodology of Artificial Neural Network (ANN). The model developed in this work is capable of estimating speed for individual vehicle category. Validation results show a great deal of agreement between the observed speeds and the predicted values by the model developed. Also, it has been observed that the ANN based model performs better compared to other existing models in terms of accuracy. Finally, the sensitivity analysis has been performed utilizing the model in order to examine the effects of traffic volume and its composition on individual speeds.

Keywords: speed model, artificial neural network, arterial, mixed traffic

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Authors: Arian Ebneyamini, Hoda Azimi, Jules Thibaults, F. Handan Tezel

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In this study, a modification of Hennepe model for pervaporation separation of butanol from aqueous solutions using Polydimethylsiloxane (PDMS) mixed matrix membranes has been introduced and validated by experimental data. The model was compared to the original Hennepe model and few other models which are applicable for membrane gas separation processes such as Maxwell, Lewis Nielson and Pal. Theoretical modifications for non-ideal interface morphology have been offered to predict the permeability in case of interface void, interface rigidification and pore-blockage. The model was in a good agreement with experimental data.

Keywords: butanol, PDMS, modeling, pervaporation, mixed matrix membranes

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Authors: Panudet Saengseedam, Nanthachai Kantanantha

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This paper proposes a linear mixed model (LMM) with spatial effects to forecast rice and cassava yields in Thailand at the same time. A multivariate conditional autoregressive (MCAR) model is assumed to present the spatial effects. A Bayesian method is used for parameter estimation via Gibbs sampling Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC). The model is applied to the rice and cassava yields monthly data which have been extracted from the Office of Agricultural Economics, Ministry of Agriculture and Cooperatives of Thailand. The results show that the proposed model has better performance in most provinces in both fitting part and validation part compared to the simple exponential smoothing and conditional auto regressive models (CAR) from our previous study.

Keywords: Bayesian method, linear mixed model, multivariate conditional autoregressive model, spatial time series

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Authors: Rajiv Kumar Srivastava

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Manufacturing of complex products such as automobiles and computers requires a very large number of parts and sub-assemblies. The design of mechanisms for delivery of these materials to the point of assembly is an important manufacturing system and supply chain challenge. Different approaches to this problem have been evolved for assembly lines designed to make large volumes of standardized products. However, contemporary assembly systems are required to concurrently produce a variety of products using approaches such as mixed model production, and at times even mass customization. In this paper we examine the material supply approaches for variety production in moderate to large volumes. The conventional approach for material delivery to high volume assembly lines is to supply and stock materials line-side. However for certain materials, especially when the same or similar items are used along the line, it is more convenient to supply materials in kits. Kitting becomes more preferable when lines concurrently produce multiple products in mixed model mode, since space requirements could increase as product/ part variety increases. At times such kits may travel along with the product, while in some situations it may be better to have delivery and station-specific kits rather than product-based kits. Further, in some mass customization situations it may even be better to have a single delivery and assembly station, to which an entire kit is delivered for fitment, rather than a normal assembly line. Finally, in low-moderate volume assembly such as in engineered machinery, it may be logistically more economical to gather materials in an order-specific kit prior to launching final assembly. We have studied material supply mechanisms to support assembly systems as observed in case studies of firms with different combinations of volume and variety/ customization. It is found that the appropriate approach tends to be a hybrid between direct line supply and different kitting modes, with the best mix being a function of the manufacturing and supply chain environment, as well as space and handling considerations. In our continuing work we are studying these scenarios further, through the use of descriptive models and progressing towards prescriptive models to help achieve the optimal approach, capturing the trade-offs between inventory, material handling, space, and efficient line supply.

Keywords: assembly systems, kitting, material supply, variety production

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Authors: Ferry Kurniawan

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In this paper, we nowcast quarterly output growth in Indonesia by exploiting higher frequency data (monthly indicators) using a mixed-frequency factor model and exploiting both quarterly and monthly data. Nowcasting quarterly GDP in Indonesia is particularly relevant for the central bank of Indonesia which set the policy rate in the monthly Board of Governors Meeting; whereby one of the important step is the assessment of the current state of the economy. Thus, having an accurate and up-to-date quarterly GDP nowcast every time new monthly information becomes available would clearly be of interest for central bank of Indonesia, for example, as the initial assessment of the current state of the economy -including nowcast- will be used as input for longer term forecast. We consider a small scale mixed-frequency factor model to produce nowcasts. In particular, we specify variables as year-on-year growth rates thus the relation between quarterly and monthly data is expressed in year-on-year growth rates. To assess the performance of the model, we compare the nowcasts with two other approaches: autoregressive model –which is often difficult when forecasting output growth- and Mixed Data Sampling (MIDAS) regression. In particular, both mixed frequency factor model and MIDAS nowcasts are produced by exploiting the same set of monthly indicators. Hence, we compare the nowcasts performance of the two approaches directly. To preview the results, we find that by exploiting monthly indicators using mixed-frequency factor model and MIDAS regression we improve the nowcast accuracy over a benchmark simple autoregressive model that uses only quarterly frequency data. However, it is not clear whether the MIDAS or mixed-frequency factor model is better. Neither set of nowcasts encompasses the other; suggesting that both nowcasts are valuable in nowcasting GDP but neither is sufficient. By combining the two individual nowcasts, we find that the nowcast combination not only increases the accuracy - relative to individual nowcasts- but also lowers the risk of the worst performance of the individual nowcasts.

Keywords: nowcasting, mixed-frequency data, factor model, nowcasts combination

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Authors: Chandni Rani, S. D. Tiwari

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Ferrihydrite is one of the distinct minerals in the family of oxides, hydroxides and oxyhydroxides of iron. It is a nanocrystalline material. It occurs naturally in different sediments, soil systems and also found in the core of ferritin, an iron storage protien. This material can also be synthesized by suitable chemical methods in laboratories. This is known as less crystalline Iron (III) Oxyhydroxide. Due to its poor crystallinity, there are very broad peaks in x-ray diffraction. Depending on the number of peaks in x-ray diffraction pattern, it is classified as two lines and six lines ferrihydrite. The average crystallite size for these two forms is found to be about 2nm to 5nm. The exact crystal structure of this system is still under debate. Out of these two forms, the six lines ferrihydrite is more ordered in comparison to two lines ferrihydrite. The magnetic behavior of two lines ferrihydrite nanoparticles is somewhat well studied. But the magnetic behavior of six lines ferrihydrite nanoparticles could not attract the attention of researchers much. This motivated us to work on the magnetic properties of six lines ferrihydrite nanoparticles. In this work, we present synthesis, structural characterization and magnetic behavior of 5 nm six lines ferrihydrite nanoparticles. X-ray diffraction and transmission electron microscope are used for structural characterization of this system. Magnetization measurements are performed to fit the data at different temperatures. Then the effect of magnetic moment distribution is also found. All these observations are discussed in detail.

Keywords: nanoparticles, magnetism, superparamagnetism, magnetic anisotropy

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Authors: Joselito Medina-Marin, Alexandr Karelin, Ana Tarasenko, Juan Carlos Seck-Tuoh-Mora, Norberto Hernandez-Romero, Eva Selene Hernandez-Gress

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A production line designer faces with several challenges in manufacturing system design. One of them is the assignment of buffer slots in between every machine of the production line in order to maximize the throughput of the whole line, which is known as the Buffer Allocation Problem (BAP). The BAP is a combinatorial problem that depends on the number of machines and the total number of slots to be distributed on the production line. In this paper, we are proposing a Petri Net (PN) Model to obtain the throughput in unreliable production lines, based on PN mathematical tools and the decomposition method. The results obtained by this methodology are similar to those presented in previous works, and the number of machines is not a hard restriction.

Keywords: buffer allocation problem, Petri Nets, throughput, production lines

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Authors: Md. Shah Alam

Abstract:

Mushfiq Ahmad has defined a Mixed Number, which is the sum of a scalar and a Cartesian vector. He has also defined the elementary group operations of Mixed numbers i.e. the norm of Mixed numbers, the product of two Mixed numbers, the identity element and the inverse. It has been observed that Mixed Number is consistent with Pauli matrix algebra and a handy tool to work with Dirac electron theory. Its use as a mathematical method in Physics has been studied. (1) We have applied Mixed number in Quantum Mechanics: Mixed Number version of Displacement operator, Vector differential operator, and Angular momentum operator has been developed. Mixed Number method has also been applied to Klein-Gordon equation. (2) We have applied Mixed number in Electrodynamics: Mixed Number version of Maxwell’s equation, the Electric and Magnetic field quantities and Lorentz Force has been found. (3) An associative transformation of Mixed Number numbers fulfilling Lorentz invariance requirement is developed. (4) We have applied Mixed number algebra as an extension of Complex number. Mixed numbers and the Quaternions have isomorphic correspondence, but they are different in algebraic details. The multiplication of unit Mixed number and the multiplication of unit Quaternions are different. Since Mixed Number has properties similar to those of Pauli matrix algebra, Mixed Number algebra is a more convenient tool to deal with Dirac equation.

Keywords: mixed number, special relativity, quantum mechanics, electrodynamics, pauli matrix

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Authors: A. Bekbaev, M. Dzhamanbaev, R. Abitaeva, A. Karbozova, G. Nabyeva

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In this paper, the regression dependence of dancing intensity from wind speed and length of span was established due to the statistic data obtained from multi-year observations on line wires dancing accumulated by power systems of Kazakhstan and the Russian Federation. The lower and upper limitations of the equations parameters were estimated, as well as the adequacy of the regression model. The constructed model will be used in research of dancing phenomena for the development of methods and means of protection against dancing and for zoning plan of the territories of line wire dancing.

Keywords: power lines, line wire dancing, dancing intensity, regression equation, dancing area intensity

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Authors: Muhammad Mohsan, Mehboob Ur-Rahman, Sana Zulfiqar, Shumila Ashfaq

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Brown Rust (Puccinia triticina), also known as leaf rust, pose a serious threat to wheat cultivation in the world. Nine candidate wheat lines/mutants were subjected to rust inoculation, lodging and aphid population in vivo conditions. Four lines/mutants (E-284, E-505, 2008-6 MR and 2008-14MR) were found resistant to leaf rust attack. Two lines (PGMB 15-29 and 2011-1 MR) displayed moderately resistant reactions against the disease. Three lines/mutants were depicted as susceptible to leaf rust. The lowest population of aphids, i.e., 16.67, was observed on 2008-14MR. Three lines/mutants (NN1-47, NN1-89 and PGMB 15-29) were found under zero level of lodging. The presence and absence of different leaf rust-resistant genes like Lr13, Lr34, Lr46 and Lr67 were assessed with the help of molecular markers. All the wheat lines/mutants were found loaded with leaf rust-resistant genes such as Lr13 and Lr 34, while Lr46 and Lr67 were found in 66% of wheat lines/mutants. The resistant source can be exploited in the breeding program to develop rust, aphid and lodging with race-nonspecific resistant wheat variety.

Keywords: wheat, leaf rust, lodging, aphid

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Authors: Mounir Zili

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We will introduce a new extension of the Brownian motion, that could serve to get a good model of many natural phenomena. It is a linear combination of a finite number of sub-fractional Brownian motions; that is why we will call it the mixed sub-fractional Brownian motion. We will present some basic properties of this process. Among others, we will check that our process is non-Markovian and that it has non-stationary increments. We will also give the conditions under which it is a semimartingale. Finally, the main features of its sample paths will be specified.

Keywords: mixed Gaussian processes, Sub-fractional Brownian motion, sample paths

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Authors: Zhidong Zhang

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This study established a mixed method model in assessing statistics learning with Bayesian network models. There are three variants in exploratory sequential designs. There are three linked steps in one of the designs: qualitative data collection and analysis, quantitative measure, instrument, intervention, and quantitative data collection analysis. The study used a scoring model of analysis of variance (ANOVA) as a content domain. The research study is to examine students’ learning in both semantic and performance aspects at fine grain level. The ANOVA score model, y = α+ βx1 + γx1+ ε, as a cognitive task to collect data during the student learning process. When the learning processes were decomposed into multiple steps in both semantic and performance aspects, a hierarchical Bayesian network was established. This is a theory-driven process. The hierarchical structure was gained based on qualitative cognitive analysis. The data from students’ ANOVA score model learning was used to give evidence to the hierarchical Bayesian network model from the evidential variables. Finally, the assessment results of students’ ANOVA score model learning were reported. Briefly, this was a mixed method research design applied to statistics learning assessment. The mixed methods designs expanded more possibilities for researchers to establish advanced quantitative models initially with a theory-driven qualitative mode.

Keywords: exploratory sequential design, ANOVA score model, Bayesian network model, mixed methods research design, cognitive analysis

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Authors: Juan P. Novoa, Mario A. Rios

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This paper presents a transmission planning methodology that considers the conversion of HVAC transmission lines to HVDC as an alternative of expansion of power systems, as a consequence of restrictions for the construction of new lines. The transmission expansion planning problem formulates an optimization problem that minimizes the total cost that includes the investment cost to convert lines from HVAC to HVDC and possible required reinforcements of the power system prior to the conversion. The costs analysis assesses the impact of the conversion on the reliability because transmission lines are out of service during the conversion work. The presented methodology is applied to a test system considering a planning a horizon of 10 years.

Keywords: transmission expansion planning, HVDC, cost optimization, energy non-supplied

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Authors: Mario Gianni, Federico Nardi, Federico Ferri, Filippo Cantucci, Manuel A. Ruiz Garcia, Karthik Pushparaj, Fiora Pirri

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In this paper, we describe a Mixed-Initiative Operational Model (MIOM) which directly intervenes on the state of the functionalities embedded into a robot for Urban Search&Rescue (USAR) domain applications. MIOM extends the reasoning capabilities of the vehicle, i.e. mapping, path planning, visual perception and trajectory tracking, with operator knowledge. Especially in USAR scenarios, this coupled initiative has the main advantage of enhancing the overall performance of a rescue mission. In-field experiments with rescue responders have been carried out to evaluate the effectiveness of this operational model.

Keywords: mixed-initiative planning and control, operator control interfaces for rescue robotics, situation awareness, urban search, rescue robotics

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Authors: Mounir Zili

Abstract:

We will introduce a new extension of the Brownian motion, that could serve to get a good model of many natural phenomena. It is a linear combination of a finite number of sub-fractional Brownian motions; that is why we will call it the mixed sub-fractional Brownian motion. We will present some basic properties of this process. Among others, we will check that our process is non-markovian and that it has non-stationary increments. We will also give the conditions under which it is a semi-martingale. Finally, the main features of its sample paths will be specified.

Keywords: fractal dimensions, mixed gaussian processes, sample paths, sub-fractional brownian motion

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Authors: S. Shaaban, T. McNamara, S. Hudson

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This paper reports on the performance of deliberately unbalanced, reliable, non-automated and assembly lines that merge, whose workstations differ in terms of their mean operation times. Simulations are carried out on 5- and 8-station lines with 1, 2 and 4 buffer capacity units, % degrees of line imbalance of 2, 5 and 12, and 24 different patterns of means imbalance. Data on two performance measures, namely throughput and average buffer level were gathered, statistically analysed and compared to a merging balanced line counterpart. It was found that the best configurations are a balanced line arrangement and a monotone decreasing order for each of the parallel merging lines, with the first generally resulting in a lower throughput and the second leading to a lower average buffer level than those of a balanced line.

Keywords: average buffer level, merging lines, simulation, throughput, unbalanced

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Authors: Pedro F. D. Oliveira, Rangel S. Maia, Aline S. Paula

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As the electric energy consumption grows, the necessity of energy transmission lines increases. One of the problems caused by an oscillatory response to dynamical loads (such as wind effects) in transmission lines is the cable fatigue. Thus, the dynamical behavior of transmission cables understanding and its control is extremely important. The socioeconomic damage caused by a failure in these cables can be quite significant, from large economic losses to energy supply interruption in large regions. Dynamic Vibration Absorbers (DVA) are oscillatory elements used to mitigate the vibration of a primary system subjected to harmonic excitation. The positioning of Stockbridge (DVA for overhead transmission lines) plays an important role in mitigating oscillations of transmission lines caused by airflows. Nowadays, the positioning is defined by technical standards or commercial software. The aim of this paper is to conduct an analysis of multiple DVAs performances in cable conductors of overhead transmission lines. The cable is analyzed by a finite element method and the model is calibrated by experimental results. DVAs performance is analyzed by evaluating total cable energy, and a study of multiple DVAs positioning is conducted. The results are compared to the existing regulations showing situations where proper positioning, different from the standard, can lead to better performance of the DVA. Results also show situations where the use of multiple DVAs is appropriate.

Keywords: dynamical vibration absorber, finite element method, overhead transmission lines, structural dynamics

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Authors: Andrés I. Ávila, Patricia Aros, César San Martín, Elizabeth Kehr, Yovana Leal

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We consider a linear programming model to help farmers to decide if it is convinient to choose among three kinds of export fruits for their future investment. We consider area, investment, water, productivitiy minimal unit, and harvest restrictions and a monthly based model to compute the average income in five years. Also, conditions on the field as area, water availability and initia investment are required. Using the Chilean costs and dollar-peso exchange rate, we can simulate several scenarios to understand the possible risks associated to this market.

Keywords: mixed integer problem, fruit production, support decision model, fruit tree farms

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Authors: C. Senabre, S. Valero, M. Lopez, E. Velasco, M. Sanchez

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This paper focuses on an application of linear mixed models to short-term load forecasting. The challenge of this research is to improve a currently working model at the Spanish Transport System Operator, programmed by us, and based on linear autoregressive techniques and neural networks. The forecasting system currently forecasts each of the regions within the Spanish grid separately, even though the behavior of the load in each region is affected by the same factors in a similar way. A load forecasting system has been verified in this work by using the real data from a utility. In this research it has been used an integration of several regions into a linear mixed model as starting point to obtain the information from other regions. Firstly, the systems to learn general behaviors present in all regions, and secondly, it is identified individual deviation in each regions. The technique can be especially useful when modeling the effect of special days with scarce information from the past. The three most relevant regions of the system have been used to test the model, focusing on special day and improving the performance of both currently working models used as benchmark. A range of comparisons with different forecasting models has been conducted. The forecasting results demonstrate the superiority of the proposed methodology.

Keywords: short-term load forecasting, mixed effects models, neural networks, mixed effects models

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Authors: Hanik Anggraeni, Evy Latifah, Putu Bagus, Joko Mariyono

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This study is to test the adaptation capacity of several selected lines and varieties of chili and tomato in farmers’ lands. Five improved lines and varieties of tomato and chili were selected based on the best performance in previous trials. Two participating farmers managed the trials. Agronomic aspects were used as performance indicators. The results show that several improved lines of tomato and chili performed better than others. However, the performance was dependent on the altitude and season. Lines performed better and high altitude could not do the same in low altitude, and vice versa. This is the same case as different season. Farmers were expected to select the best lines according to the locations.

Keywords: variety trials, tomato and chili, participatory farmers, East Java

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