Search results for: health risks

Authors: Hien T. T. Ho, Tsunemi Watanabe

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The regulatory and market pressures on the restriction of nonylphenol and its ethoxylates in textile articles have confronted the textile manufacturers, particularly those in developing countries. This study aimed to examine the tentative behavior of the textile manufacturers in Vietnam from the perspectives of attitude and the perceptions of technical and organizational adaptabilities, risks, benefits, and barriers. Personal interviews were conducted with five technical specialists from four textile firms and one chemical supplier. The environmental regulatory and market situations regarding the chemical use in Vietnam were also described. The findings revealed two main opposing trends of chemical substitution depending on the market orientation of firms that governed the patterns of risk and benefit perception. The indirect influence of perceived adaptabilities on firm tentative behavior through perceived risks was elucidated, which initiated a conceptual model of firm’s behavior combining the organizational-based and the rational-based relationships. The intermediary role of non-governmental textile and garment industrial/ trade associations is highlighted to strengthen private firm’s informative capacity.

Keywords: firm behavior, institutional analysis, organizational adaptation, technical adaptation

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Authors: Tadewos Awugchew Wudineh

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Health and safety issues have always been a major problem and concern in the building construction industry. The health and safety regulations are stated to eliminate the potential hazards and to reduce the consequential risks. However, the importance of the regulations seems to be overlooked in building construction sites of Hawassa City. Accordingly, many companies don’t follow the regulations as construction workers are more likely to be injured and killed by construction accident than any other type of employment. This paper aimed to identify factors that affect the implementation of construction health and safety regulations, their effects and mitigation measures in building construction project sites of Hawassa City. To reach this objective, a review of literature as well as the Ethiopian construction health and safety regulations have been undertaken. Mainly a five-point Likert scale questionnaire was distributed, and statistical analysis was used to summarize, interpret the data, and to find the significances of the responses. In addition, interviews were carried out. Accordingly, the findings indicate that the top factors which affect the implementation of CHS regulations are, availability and development of a clear health and safety policy, health and safety inspections by top management, conducting health and safety training and orientation, provision of healthy and safe working environment and employment of trained safety officers. The study revealed that implementation or non-implementation of CHS regulations have effects on the worker’s productivity, job satisfaction, rate of accidents, and cost greatly. Thus, the suggestion to minimize the impact on worker’s job performance are, developing of a clear health and safety policy, management commitment towards implementation of health and safety regulations, health and safety education and training and conducting regular health and safety inspections. It was concluded from the study that good implementation of health and safety regulations are the results from administrative and management commitment which calls for more attention to be paid to improve the implementation of CHS regulations in building construction sites of Hawassa City.

Keywords: construction health and safety regulations, effects, factors, mitigation

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Authors: Jefferson Camacho Mejia, Jenny Paola Forero Pachon, Luis Carlos Gomez Florez

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The innumerable possibilities offered by the use of Information Technology (IT) in the development of different socio-economic activities has made a change in the social paradigm and the emergence of the so-called information and knowledge society. The Colombian government, aware of this reality, has been promoting the use of IT as part of the E-government strategy adopted in the country. However, it is well known that the use of IT implies the existence of certain threats that put the security of information in the digital environment at risk. One of the priorities of the Colombian government is to improve access to alternative justice through IT, in particular, access to Alternative Dispute Resolution (ADR): conciliation, arbitration and friendly composition; by means of which it is sought that the citizens directly resolve their differences. To this end, a trend has been identified in the use of Online Dispute Resolution (ODR) systems, which extend the benefits of ADR to the digital environment through the use of IT. This article presents a process for the analysis of information security risks associated with the incorporation of ODR systems in the context of conciliation in Colombia, based on four fundamental stages identified in the literature: (I) Identification of assets, (II) Identification of threats and vulnerabilities (III) Estimation of the impact and 4) Estimation of risk levels. The methodological design adopted for this research was the grounded theory, since it involves interactions that are applied to a specific context and from the perspective of diverse participants. As a result of this investigation, the activities to be followed are defined to carry out an analysis of information security risks, in the context of the conciliation in Colombia supported by ODR systems, thus contributing to the estimation of the risks to make possible its subsequent treatment.

Keywords: alternative dispute resolution, conciliation, information security, online dispute resolution systems, process, risk analysis

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Authors: Ruchi Agarwal, Jake Ansell

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Austerity impacts on all aspects of society. Companies into the future will have to be more capable of dealing with the risks they face. Enterprise Risk Management (ERM) has widely been accepted in recent years as an approach to manage risks within businesses. ERM attempts to tackle risk holistically with gains from opportunities in a managing risk and reduction in the risk of failure. The paper reviews merits and demerits of approaches to risk management in regard to antifragility. A qualitative study has investigated current practices and the problems with ERM implementation by interviewing over 25 chief risk officers and senior management. The findings indicate the gap in ERM description, understanding, and implementation. The paper suggests risk learning and expertise knowledge supports development of effective enterprise risk management by designing systems with inherent resilience.

Keywords: risk management, interviews, antifragility, failure

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Authors: Layal Mansour

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The aim of this paper is to identify whether oil price volatility or geopolitical risks can predict future financial stress periods or economic recessions in Kuwait. We construct the first Financial Stress Index for Kuwait (FSIK) that includes informative vulnerable indicators of the main financial sectors: the banking sector, the equities market, and the foreign exchange market. The study covers the period from 2000 to 2020, so it includes the two recent most devastating world economic crises with oil price fluctuation: the Covid-19 pandemic crisis and Ukraine-Russia War. All data are taken by the central bank of Kuwait, the World Bank, IMF, DataStream, and from Federal Reserve System St Louis. The variables are computed as the percentage growth rate, then standardized and aggregated into one index using the variance equal weights method, the most frequently used in the literature. The graphical FSIK analysis provides detailed information (by dates) to policymakers on how internal financial stability depends on internal policy and events such as government elections or resignation. It also shows how monetary authorities or internal policymakers’ decisions to relieve personal loans or increase/decrease the public budget trigger internal financial instability. The empirical analysis under vector autoregression (VAR) models shows the dynamic causal relationship between the oil price fluctuation and the Kuwaiti economy, which relies heavily on the oil price. Similarly, using vector autoregression (VAR) models to assess the impact of the global geopolitical risks on Kuwaiti financial stability, results reveal whether Kuwait is confronted with or sheltered from geopolitical risks. The Financial Stress Index serves as a guide for macroprudential regulators in order to understand the weakness of the overall Kuwaiti financial market and economy regardless of the Kuwaiti dinar strength and exchange rate stability. It helps policymakers predict future stress periods and, thus, address alternative cushions to confront future possible financial threats.

Keywords: Kuwait, financial stress index, causality test, VAR, oil price, geopolitical risks

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Authors: Junaid Asimiyu Mohammed, Olakunle Docas Tosin

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The housing environment in many developing countries is fraught with risks that have potential negative impacts on the lives of the residents. The study examined the risk factors in residential areas of two neighborhoods in Bosso Local Government Areas of Minna in Nigeria with a view to determining the level of their potential impacts. A sample of 378 households was drawn from the estimated population of 22,751 household heads. The questionnaire and direct observation were used as instruments for data collection. The data collected were analyzed using the Relative Importance Index (RII) rule to determine the level of the potential impact of the risk factors while ArcGIS was used for mapping the spatial distribution of the risks. The study established that the housing environment of Angwan Biri and El-Waziri areas of Bosso is poor and vulnerable as 26% of the houses were not habitable and 57% were only fairly habitable. The risks of epidemics, building collapse and rainstorms were evident in the area as 53% of the houses had poor ventilation; 20% of residents had no access to toilets; 47% practiced open waste dumping; 46% of the houses had cracked walls while 52% of the roofs were weak and sagging. The results of the analysis of the potential impact of the risk factors indicate a RII score of 0.528 for building collapse, 0.758 for rainstorms and 0.830 for epidemics, indicating a moderate to very high level of potential impacts. The mean RII score of 0.639 shows a significant potential impact of the risk factors. The study recommends the implementation of sanitation measures, provision of basic urban facilities and neighborhood revitalization through housing infrastructure retrofitting as measures to mitigate the risks of disasters and improve the living conditions of the residents of the study area.

Keywords: assessment, risk, residential, Nigeria

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Authors: Fiorenza Misale

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The painful phenomenon of so-called white deaths and accidents at work, unfortunately, is always current. The key is to act on the culture of security through effective measures of attitudes and behaviors that go far beyond the knowledge and the know-how. It is necessary that there is an ‘introjection’ of safety culture through the conscious involvement of all workers. The legislation on work safety identifies the main tool to promote the culture of safety at work and prevention within the workplace. In law the term education is used to distinguish itself from the information with which they will simply theoretically transmit, and from the training with which they will provide the practical skills. The new decree fact fills several gaps in previous legislation and stresses the importance of training in the workplace, that is, the main activity through which it is possible to achieve the active participation of all workers in the company’s prevention system. This system is built only through the dissemination of risk information, the circulation of information, comparison and dialogue between all actors involved that are the necessary elements for a correct transmission of the culture of worker safety. Training activity should put the focus on work experience in order to bring out all the knowledge needed to identify and assess the risks in the work place, and especially the action to eliminate or control them, integrating, when necessary, the missing knowledge. In addition to traditional training and information systems can be utilized for the purpose of training that are able to affect both one emotionally and aesthetically, team-theatre is one of them. Among the methods of company theater that can be used in work safety we have: Lesson show, theater workshop, improvised theater, forum theater, theater playback. The theater can represent a complementary approach to traditional training and give information on safety measures, demonstrating that there are more engaging outreach tools. Team-theatre allows identification with the characters, a transmission of emotions and moods and it is through the staging of a story that the individual processes new information. It’ also s a means of experiential training that allows you to work with your mind, body, emotions.The aim of one work is the use of corporate theater on the personnel working in the health sector. Through a questionnaire we are able to analyze the knowledge of occupational safety and current risks; in particular in health care which is to be administered before and after the play.

Keywords: theater, training, occupational health, safety

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Authors: Osayomwanbor E. Oghama, John O. Olomukoro

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The school environment, apart from home, is probably the most important indoor environment for children. Children spend as much as 80-90% of their indoor time either at school or at home; an average of 35 - 40 hours per week in schools, hence are at the risk of indoor air pollutants such as volatile organic compounds (VOCs). Concentrations of VOCs vary widely but are generally higher indoors than outdoors. This research was, therefore, carried out to evaluate the levels of VOCs in secondary school classrooms in Benin City, Edo State. Samples were obtained from a total of 18 classrooms in 6 secondary schools. Samples were collected 3 times from each school and from 3 different classrooms in each school using Draeger ORSA 5 tubes. Samplers were left to stay for a school-week (5 days). The VOCs detected and analyzed were benzene, ethlybenzene, isopropylbenzene, naphthalene, n-butylbenzene, n-propylbenzene, toluene, m-xylene, p-xylene, o-xylene, styrene, chlorobenzene, chloroform, 1,2-dichloropropane, 2,2-dichloropropane, tetrachloroethane, tetrahydrofuran, isopropyl acetate, α-pinene, and camphene. The results showed that chloroform, o-xylene, and styrene were the most abundant while α-pinene and camphene were the least abundant. The health risk assessment was done in terms of carcinogenic (CRI) and non-carcinogenic risks (THR). The CRI values of the schools ranged from 1.03 × 10-5 to 1.36 × 10-5 μg/m³ (a mean of 1.16 × 10-5 μg/m³) with School 6 and School 3 having the highest and lowest values respectively. The THR values of the study schools ranged from 0.071-0.086 μg/m³ (a mean of 0.078 μg/m³) with School 3 and School 2 having the highest and lowest values respectively. The results show that all the schools pose a potential carcinogenic risks having CRI values greater than the recommended limit of 1 × 10-6 µg/m³ and no non-carcinogenic risk having THR values less than the USEPA hazard quotient of 1 µg/m³. It is recommended that school authorities should ensure adequate ventilation in their schools, supplementing natural ventilation with mechanical sources, where necessary. In addition, indoor air quality should be taken into consideration in the design and construction of classrooms.

Keywords: carcinogenic risk indicator, health risk, indoor air, non-carcinogenic risk indicator, secondary schools, volatile organic compounds

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Authors: İbrahi̇m Kara, Seher Arslankaya

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Frequently preferred in the field of engineering in particular, data mining has now begun to be used in the field of health as well since the data in the health sector have reached great dimensions. With data mining, it is aimed to reveal models from the great amounts of raw data in agreement with the purpose and to search for the rules and relationships which will enable one to make predictions about the future from the large amount of data set. It helps the decision-maker to find the relationships among the data which form at the stage of decision-making. In this study, it is aimed to determine the risk of heart attack at the first stage, to control it, and to make its resource planning with the method of data mining. Through the early and correct diagnosis of heart attacks, it is aimed to reveal the factors which affect the diseases, to protect health and choose the right treatment methods, to reduce the costs in health expenditures, and to shorten the durations of patients’ stay at hospitals. In this way, the diagnosis and treatment costs of a heart attack will be scrutinized, which will be useful to determine the risk of the disease at the first stage, to control it, and to make its resource planning.

Keywords: data mining, decision support systems, heart attack, health sector

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Authors: Ritsuko Kawasaki, Takeshi Hiromatsu

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Management is required to understand all information security risks within an organization, and to make decisions on which information security risks should be treated in what level by allocating how much amount of cost. However, such decision-making is not usually easy, because various measures for risk treatment must be selected with the suitable application levels. In addition, some measures may have objectives conflicting with each other. It also makes the selection difficult. Therefore, this paper provides a model which supports the selection of measures by applying multi-objective analysis to find an optimal solution. Additionally, a list of measures is also provided to make the selection easier and more effective without any leakage of measures.

Keywords: information security risk treatment, selection of risk measures, risk acceptance, multi-objective optimization

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Authors: Nafe Moradkhani, Frederick Benaben, Benoit Montreuil, Ali Vatankhah Barenji, Dima Nazzal

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In the context of the global pandemic, the practical management of the 2020 presidential election in the USA was a strong concern. To anticipate and prepare for this election accurately, one of the main challenges was to confront (i) forecasts of voter turnout, (ii) capacities of the facilities and, (iii) potential configuration options of resources. The approach chosen to conduct this anticipative study consists of collecting data about forecasts and using simulation models to work simultaneously on resource allocation and facility configuration of polling places in Fulton County, Georgia’s largest county. A polling place is a dedicated facility where voters cast their ballots in elections using different devices. This article presents the results of the simulations of such places facing pre-identified potential risks. These results are oriented towards the efficiency of these places according to different criteria (health, trust, comfort). Then a dynamic framework is introduced to describe risks as physical forces perturbing the efficiency of the observed system. Finally, the main benefits and contributions resulting from this simulation campaign are presented.

Keywords: performance, decision support, simulation, artificial intelligence, risk management, election, pandemics, information system

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Authors: Patrice Conner

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Nanotechnologies have enormous potential to contribute to human flourishing in responsible and sustainable ways. They are rapidly developing field of science, technology and innovation. As enabling technologies, their full scope of applications is potentially very wide. Major implications are expected in many areas, e.g. healthcare, information and communication technologies, energy production and storage, materials science/chemical engineering, manufacturing, environmental protection, consumer products, etc. However, nanotechnologies are unlikely to realize their full potential unless their associated societal and ethical issues are adequately attended. Namely nanotechnologies and nanoparticles may expose humans and the environment to new health risks, possibly involving quite different mechanisms of interference with the physiology of human and environmental species. One of the building blocks of the ‘safe, integrated and responsible’ approach is standardization. Both the Economic and Social Committee and the European Parliament have highlighted the importance to be attached to standardization as a means to accompany the introduction on the market of nanotechnologies and nanomaterials, and a means to facilitate the implementation of regulation. ISO and CEN have respectively started in 2005 and 2006 to deal with selected topics related to this emerging and enabling technology. In the beginning of 2010, EC DG ‘Enterprise and Industry’ addressed the mandate M/461 to CEN, CENELEC and ETSI for standardization activities regarding nanotechnologies and nanomaterials. Thus CEN/TC 352 ‘Nanotechnologies’ has been asked to take the leadership for the coordination in the execution of M/461 (46 topics to be standardized) and to contact relevant European and International Technical committees and interested stakeholders as appropriate (56 structures have been identified). Prior requests from M/461 deal with characterization and exposure of nanomaterials and any matters related to Health, Safety and Environment. Answers will be given to: - What are the structures and how they work? - Where are we right now and how work is going from now onwards? - How CEN’s work and targets deal with and interact with global matters in this field?

Keywords: characterization, environmental protection, exposure, health risks, nanotechnologies, responsible and sustainable ways, safety

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Authors: Ammar S. M. Moohialdin, Bambang T. Suhariadi, Mohsin Siddiqui

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This paper addresses the application of physiological status monitoring (PSM) for assessing the impact of harsh weather conditions on sports activities in universities in Saudi Arabia. Real sports measurement was conducted during sports activities such that the physiological status (HR and BR) of five students were continuously monitored by using Zephyr BioHarness^TM 3.0 sensors in order to identify the physiological bonds and zones. These bonds and zones were employed as indicators of the associated physiological risks of the performed sports activities. Furthermore, a short yes/no questionnaire was applied to collect information on participants’ health conditions and opinions of the applied PSM sensors. The results show the absence of a warning system as a protective aid for the hazardous levels of extremely hot and humid weather conditions that may cause dangerous and fatal circumstances. The applied formulas for estimating maximum HR provides accurate estimations for Maximum Heart Rate (HR_max). The physiological results reveal that the performed activities by the participants are considered the highest category (90–100%) in terms of activity intensity. This category is associated with higher HR, BR and physiological risks including losing the ability to control human body behaviors. Therefore, there is a need for immediate intervention actions to reduce the intensity of the performed activities to safer zones. The outcomes of this study assist the safety improvement of sports activities inside universities and athletes performing their sports activities. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first paper to represent a special case of the application of PSM technology for assessing sports activities in universities considering the impacts of harsh weather conditions on students’ health and safety.

Keywords: physiological status monitoring (PSM), heart rate (HR), breathing rate (BR), Arabian Gulf

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Authors: Taonga Temwani Chibaka

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This qualitative research study was conducted to identify the common risk factors that affect the construction industry in Malawi in the building and infrastructure (civil works) projects. The study then evaluates the possible risk responses that are done to mitigate the various risk factors that were identified. I addition the research also established the barriers to risk management implementation with lastly mapping out as where the identified risk factors fall on which stage of the project and then also map out the knowledge areas that need to be worked on the cases on Malawian construction industry in order to mitigate most of the identified risk factors. The study involved the interviewing the professionals from the construction industry in Malawi where insights and ideas were collected, analysed and interpreted. The key study findings show that risks related to clients group are perceived as most critical followed by the contractor related, consultant related and then external group related factors respectively where preventive measures are the most applied risk response technique where the aim to avoid most of the risk factors from happening. Most of the risk factors identified were internal risks and in managerial category which suggested that risk planning was to be emphasized at pre-contract stage to minimize these risks since a bigger percentage of the risk factors were mapped out at implementation stage. Furthermore, barriers to risk management were identified and the key barriers were lack of awareness; lack of knowledge; lack of formal policies in place; regarded as costly and limited time which resulted in proposing that regulating authorities to purposefully introduce intense training on risk management to make known of this new knowledge area. The study then recommends that organisation should formally implement risk management where policies should be introduced to enforce all parties to undertake this. Risk planning was regarded as paramount and this to be done from pre-contract phase so as to mitigate 80% of the risk factors. Finally, training should be done on all project management knowledge areas.

Keywords: risk management, risk factors, risks, malawi

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Authors: Marcelo Dias Carvalho, Leticia Ishikawa

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Supply Chain Risk Management refers to a set of strategies used by companies to avoid supply chain disruption caused by damage at production facilities, natural disasters, capacity issues, inventory problems, incorrect forecasts, and delays. Many companies use the techniques of the Toyota Production System, which in a way goes against a better management of supply chain risks. This paper studies key events in some multinationals to analyze the trade-off between the best supply chain risk management techniques and management policies designed to create lean enterprises. The result of a good balance of these actions is the reduction of losses, increased customer trust in the company and better preparedness to face the general risks of a supply chain.

Keywords: just in time, lean manufacturing, supply chain disruptions, supply chain management

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Authors: Farshad Ghodoosi

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This article analyzes the effect of supervening events in contracts. Contracts serve an important function: allocation of risks. In spite of its importance, the case law and the doctrine are messy and inconsistent. This article provides a fresh look at excuse doctrines (i.e., force majeure, impracticability, impossibility, and frustration) with a focus on force majeure clauses. The article makes the following contributions: First, it furnishes a new conceptual and theoretical framework of excuse doctrines. By distilling the decisions, it shows that excuse doctrines rests on the triangle of control, foreseeability, and contract language. Second, it analyzes force majeure clauses used by S&P 500 companies to understand the stickiness and similarity of such clauses and the events they cover. Third, using computational and statistical tools, it analyzes US cases since 1810 in order to assess the weight given to the triangle of control, foreseeability, and contract language. It shows that the control factor plays an important role in force majeure analysis, while the contractual interpretation is the least important factor. The Article concludes that it is the standard for control -whether the supervening event is beyond the control of the party- that determines the outcome of cases in the force majeure context and not necessarily the contractual language. This article has important implications on COVID-19-related contractual cases. Unlike the prevailing narrative that it is the language of the force majeure clause that’s determinative, this article shows that the primarily focus of the inquiry will be on whether the effects of COVID-19 have been beyond the control of the promisee. Normatively, the Article suggests that the trifactor of control, foreseeability, and contractual language are not effective for allocation of legal risks in times of crises. It puts forward a novel approach to force majeure clauses whereby that the courts should instead focus on the degree to which parties have relied on (expected) performance, in particular during the time of crisis.

Keywords: contractual risks, force majeure clauses, foreseeability, control, contractual language, computational analysis

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Authors: Srinivasa Rao Gadde

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In this article, we considered a group acceptance sampling plans for exponentiated half logistic distribution when the life-test is truncated at a pre-specified time. It is assumed that the index parameter of the exponentiated half logistic distribution is known. The design parameters such as the number of groups and the acceptance number are obtained by satisfying the producer’s and consumer’s risks at the specified quality levels in terms of medians and 10th percentiles under the assumption that the termination time and the number of items in each group are pre-fixed. Finally, an example is given to illustration the methodology.

Keywords: group acceptance sampling plan, operating characteristic, consumer and producer’s risks, truncated life-test

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Authors: Corinne Kowalski, Lea de Jong, Rainer Sauerborn, Niamh Herlihy, Anneliese Depoux, Jale Tosun

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Climate change is considered one of the biggest threats to human health of the 21st century. The link between climate change and health has received relatively little attention in the media, in research and in policy-making. A long term and broad overview of how health is represented in the legislation on climate change is missing in the legislative literature. It is unknown if or how the argument for health is referred in legal clauses addressing climate change, in national and European legislation. Integrating scientific based evidence into policies regarding the impacts of climate change on health could be a key step to inciting the political and societal changes necessary to decelerate global warming. This may also drive the implementation of new strategies to mitigate the consequences on health systems. To provide an overview of this issue, we are analyzing the Global Climate Legislation Database provided by the Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change and the Environment. This institution was established in 2008 at the London School of Economics and Political Science. The database consists of (updated as of 1st January 2015) legislations on climate change in 99 countries around the world. This tool offers relevant information about the state of climate related policies. We will use the database to systematically analyze the 829 identified legislations to identify how health is represented as a relevant aspect of climate change legislation. We are conducting explorative research of national and supranational legislations and anticipate health to be addressed in various forms. The goal is to highlight how often, in what specific terms, which aspects of health or health risks of climate change are mentioned in various legislations. The position and recurrence of the mention of health is also of importance. Data will be extracted with complete quotation of the sentence which mentions health, which will allow for second qualitative stage to analyze which aspects of health are represented and in what context. This study is part of an interdisciplinary project called 4CHealth that confronts results of the research done on scientific, political and press literature to better understand how the knowledge on climate change and health circulates within those different fields and whether and how it is translated to real world change.

Keywords: climate change, explorative research, health, policies

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Authors: Noora Al-Shanfari, M. Mazharul Islam

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The cumulative incidence function (CIF) is a fundamental approach for analyzing survival data in the presence of competing risks, which estimates the marginal probability for each competing event. Parametric modeling of CIF has the advantage of fitting various shapes of CIF and estimates the impact of covariates with maximum efficiency. To calculate the total CIF's covariate influence using a parametric model., it is essential to parametrize the baseline of the CIF. As the CIF is an improper function by nature, it is necessary to utilize an improper distribution when applying parametric models. The Gompertz distribution, which is an improper distribution, is limited in its applicability as it only accounts for monotone hazard shapes. The generalized Gompertz distribution, however, can adapt to a wider range of hazard shapes, including unimodal, bathtub, and monotonic increasing or decreasing hazard shapes. In this paper, the generalized Gompertz distribution is used to parametrize the baseline of the CIF, and the parameters of the proposed model are estimated using the maximum likelihood approach. The proposed model is compared with the existing Gompertz model using the Akaike information criterion. Appropriate statistical test procedures and model-fitting criteria will be used to test the adequacy of the model. Both models are applied to the ‘colon’ dataset, which is available in the “biostat3” package in R.

Keywords: competing risks, cumulative incidence function, improper distribution, parametric modeling, survival analysis

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Authors: Ebtissem Sassi, Abdellatif Benabdelhafid, Sami Hammami

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Congestion, pollution and space misuse are the major risks in the hinterland. Management of these risks is a major issue for all the actors intervening in territory management. A good mastery of these risks is based on the consideration of environmental and physical constraints since the implementation of a policy integrates simultaneously an efficient use, territorial resources, and financial resources which become increasingly rare. Yet, this balance can be difficult to establish simultaneously by all the actors. Indeed, every actor has often the tendency to favor these objectives in detriment to others. In this framework, we have fixed the objective of designing and achieving a model which will centralize multidisciplinary data and serve the analysis tool as well as a decision support tool. In this article, we will elaborate some methodological axes allowing the good management of the territory system through (i) determination of the structural factors of the decision support system, (ii) integration of methods tools favoring the territorial decisional process. Logistics territory geographic information system is a model dealing with this issue. The objective of this model is to facilitate the exchanges between the actors around a common question which was the research subject of human sciences researchers (geography, economy), nature sciences (ecology) as well as finding an optimal solution for simultaneous responses to all these objectives.

Keywords: complexity, territory, logistics, territory planning, conceptual model, GIS, MCA

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Authors: Juliet Sorensen, Megan Schliep

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Introduction: After a multidisciplinary assessment of health and human rights issues in central Mali, a musical album was created in 2014 in Douentza, Mali to provide health information on female genital mutilation/cutting (FGM/C), malaria, HIV/AIDS, girls’ education, breastfeeding, and sanitation. The objective of this study was to assess the impact of this album. Methods: A mixed-methods assessment was conducted with 149 individuals across 10 villages in Douentza Cercle. Analyses focused on the association of radio listening habits, age, sex, ethnicity and education with a public health knowledge score. Results: Over 90% of respondents reported daily radio listening, many listening five or more hours per day. Potential risks of FGM/C cited by participants included death (59%), difficulty in childbirth (48%), sterility (34%), and fistula (33%); when asked about their level of control over FGM/C, 28% stated they would never cut their daughters. Being a listener for 1-5 hours per day was associated with a 11.5% higher score of 'public health knowledge' compared to those listening only a little or not at all (p < 0.01). Education (marginal versus no formal education) was associated with 7.6% increased score (p < 0.01). Conclusion: Radio appears to be a significant part of community members’ daily routines and may be a valuable medium for transmitting information, particularly for lower literacy individuals.

Keywords: female genital cutting, public health and social justice education, radio, Mali

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Authors: Chloe E. Edwards, Yasaman Shahtaheri

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Risk management plays a fundamental role in project planning and delivery. The purpose of incorporating risk management into project management practices is to identify and address uncertainties related to key project-related activities. The uncertainties, known as risk events, can relate to project deliverables that are quantifiable and are often measured by impact to project schedule, cost, or environmental impact. Risk management should be incorporated as an iterative practice throughout the planning, execution, and commissioning phases of a project. This paper specifically examines how risk management contributes to effective project planning and delivery through a case study of a transportation project. This case study focused solely on impacts to project schedule regarding three milestones: readiness for delivery, readiness for testing and commissioning, and completion of the facility. The case study followed the ISO 31000: Risk Management – Guidelines. The key factors that are outlined by these guidelines include understanding the scope and context of the project, conducting a risk assessment including identification, analysis, and evaluation, and lastly, risk treatment through mitigation measures. This process requires continuous consultation with subject matter experts and monitoring to iteratively update the risks accordingly. The risk identification process led to a total of fourteen risks related to design, permitting, construction, and commissioning. The analysis involved running 1,000 Monte Carlo simulations through @RISK 8.0 Industrial software to determine potential milestone completion dates based on the project baseline schedule. These dates include the best case, most likely case, and worst case to provide an estimated delay for each milestone. Evaluation of these results provided insight into which risks were the highest contributors to the projected milestone completion dates. Based on the analysis results, the risk management team was able to provide recommendations for mitigation measures to reduce the likelihood of risks occurring. The risk management team also provided recommendations for managing the identified risks and project activities moving forward to meet the most likely or best-case milestone completion dates.

Keywords: construction management, monte carlo simulation, project delivery, risk assessment, transportation engineering

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Authors: B. Rusyidi, D. Mariana

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Although reforms in trafficking regulations have taken place since 2007, Indonesia is still struggling to fight child trafficking. This study aimed to identify and assess risk factors and vulnerabilities in the life of trafficked children prior to, during, and after being trafficked in order to inform the child protection system and its policies. The study was qualitative and utilized in-depth interviews to collect data. Data were gathered in 2014 and 2015 from 15 trafficked and sexually exploited girls aged 14 to 17 years originating from West Java. Social workers, safe home personnel and parents were also included as informants. Data analysis was guided by the ecological perspective and theme analyses. The study found that risks and vulnerabilities of the victims were associated with conditions at various levels of the environment. At the micro level, risk factors and vulnerabilities included young age, family conflict/violence, involvement with the “wrong” circle of friends/peers, family poverty, lack of social and economic support for the victim’s family, and psychological damages due to trafficking experiences. At the mezzo level, the lack of structured activities after school, economic inequality, stigma towards victims, lack of services for victims, and minimum public education on human trafficking were among the community hazards that increased the vulnerability and risks. Gender inequality, consumerism, the view of children as assets, corruption, weak law enforcement, the lack of institutional support, and community-wide ignorance regarding trafficking were found as factors that increased risks and vulnerabilities at the macro level. The findings from the study underline the necessity to reduce risk factors and promote protective factors at the individual, family, community and societal levels. Shifting the current focus from tertiary to primary/prevention policies and improving institutional efforts are pressing needs in the context of reducing child trafficking in Indonesia. The roles of human service providers including social work also should be promoted.

Keywords: child trafficking, child sexual exploitation, ecological perspective, risks and vulnerabilities

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Authors: Vivian W. L. Tsang, Karen Lockhart, Samuel Spiegel, Annalee Yassi

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Background: Workers in the informal economy often incur exposure to well-documented occupational health hazards. Insufficient attention has been afforded to rigorously evaluating intervention programs to reduce the risks, especially in artisanal and small-scale gold mining (ASGM). Objectives: This systematic review, conducted as part of the World Health Organization’s Global Plan of Action for Workers’ Health, sought to assess the state of knowledge on occupational health programs and interventions for the informal artisanal and small-scale gold mining (ASGM) sector, an occupation which directly employs at least 50 million people. Methods: We used a comprehensive search strategy for four well-known databases relevant to health outcomes: PubMed, Engineering Village, OVID Medline, and Web of Science, and employed the PRISMA framework for our analysis. Findings: Ten studies met the inclusion criteria of a primary study focused on assessing the impact of interventions addressing occupational health concerns in ASGM. There were no studies evaluating or even identifying comprehensive occupational health and safety programs for this sector, although target interventions addressing specific hazards exist. Major areas of intervention –education and introduction of mercury-reducing/eliminating technology were identified, and the challenges and limitations of each intervention taken into the assessment. Even for these, however, there was a lack of standardization for measuring outcome or impact, let alone long-term health outcomes for miners and mining communities. Conclusion: There is an urgent need for research on comprehensive occupational health programs addressing the array of hazards faced by artisanal and small-scale miners.

Keywords: informal economy, artisanal and small-scale gold mining, occupational health, health and safety, workplace safety

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Authors: Itamir de Morais Barroca Filho, Cephas A. S. Barreto, Ramon Malaquias, Cezar Miranda Paula de Souza, Arthur Costa Gorgônio, João C. Xavier-Júnior, Mateus Firmino, Fellipe Matheus Costa Barbosa

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Information and Communication Technologies (ICT) in healthcare are crucial for efficiently delivering medical healthcare services to patients. These ICTs are also known as e-health and comprise technologies such as electronic record systems, telemedicine systems, and personalized devices for diagnosis. The focus of e-health is to improve the quality of health information, strengthen national health systems, and ensure accessible, high-quality health care for all. All the data gathered by these technologies make it possible to help clinical staff with automated decisions using machine learning. In this context, we collected patient data, such as heart rate, oxygen saturation (SpO2), blood pressure, respiration, and others. With this data, we were able to develop machine learning models for patients’ risk of death and estimate the length of stay in ICU beds. Thus, this paper presents the methodology for applying machine learning techniques to develop these models. As a result, although we implemented these models on an IoT healthcare platform, helping clinical staff in healthcare in an ICU, it is essential to create a robust clinical validation process and monitoring of the proposed models.

Keywords: ICT, e-health, machine learning, ICU, healthcare

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Authors: Piret Pernik

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Based on strategic, operational, and technical analysis of the ongoing armed conflict in Ukraine, this paper will examine the opportunities and risks of using small commercial drones (dual-use unmanned aerial vehicles, UAV) for military purposes. The paper discusses the opportunities and risks in the information domain, encompassing both cyber and electromagnetic interference and attacks. The paper will draw conclusions on a possible strategic impact to the battlefield outcomes in the modern armed conflicts by the widespread use of dual-use UAVs. This article will contribute to filling the gap in the literature by examining based on empirical data cyberattacks and electromagnetic interference. Today, more than one hundred states and non-state actors possess UAVs ranging from low cost commodity models, widely are dual-use, available and affordable to anyone, to high-cost combat UAVs (UCAV) with lethal kinetic strike capabilities, which can be enhanced with Artificial Intelligence (AI) and Machine Learning (ML). Dual-use UAVs have been used by various actors for intelligence, reconnaissance, surveillance, situational awareness, geolocation, and kinetic targeting. Thus they function as force multipliers enabling kinetic and electronic warfare attacks and provide comparative and asymmetric operational and tactical advances. Some go as far as argue that automated (or semi-automated) systems can change the character of warfare, while others observe that the use of small drones has not changed the balance of power or battlefield outcomes. UAVs give considerable opportunities for commanders, for example, because they can be operated without GPS navigation, makes them less vulnerable and dependent on satellite communications. They can and have been used to conduct cyberattacks, electromagnetic interference, and kinetic attacks. However, they are highly vulnerable to those attacks themselves. So far, strategic studies, literature, and expert commentary have overlooked cybersecurity and electronic interference dimension of the use of dual use UAVs. The studies that link technical analysis of opportunities and risks with strategic battlefield outcomes is missing. It is expected that dual use commercial UAV proliferation in armed and hybrid conflicts will continue and accelerate in the future. Therefore, it is important to understand specific opportunities and risks related to the crowdsourced use of dual-use UAVs, which can have kinetic effects. Technical countermeasures to protect UAVs differ depending on a type of UAV (small, midsize, large, stealth combat), and this paper will offer a unique analysis of small UAVs both from the view of opportunities and risks for commanders and other actors in armed conflict.

Keywords: dual-use technology, cyber attacks, electromagnetic warfare, case studies of cyberattacks in armed conflicts

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Authors: David Glew, Felix Thomas, Matthew Brooke-Peat

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Improving the thermal performance of homes is seen as an essential step in achieving climate change, fuel security, fuel poverty targets. One of the most effective thermal retrofits is to insulate solid walls. However, it has been observed that applying insulation to the internal face of solid walls reduces the surface temperature of the inner wall leaf, which may introduce condensation risk and may interrupt seasonal moisture accumulation and dissipation. This research quantifies the extent to which the risk of condensation and moisture accumulation in the wall increases (which can increase the risk of timber rot) following the installation of six different types of internal wall insulation. In so doing, it compares how risk is affected by both the thermal resistance, thickness, and breathability of the insulation. Thermal bridging, surface temperatures, condensation risk, and moisture accumulation are evaluated using hygrothermal simulation software before and after the thermal upgrades. The research finds that installing internal wall insulation will always introduce some risk of condensation and moisture. However, it identifies that risks were present prior to insulation and that breathable materials and insulation with lower resistance have lower risks than alternative insulation options. The implications of this may be that building standards that encourage the enhanced thermal performance of solid walls may be introducing moisture risks into homes.

Keywords: condensation risk, hygrothermal simulation, internal wall insulation, thermal bridging

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Authors: Jie Liu, Wei Wei, Chun-Ping Chang

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Using a sample of 110 countries over the period 1984-2013, this paper examines the impacts of country risks on choosing a specific exchange rate regime (first by utilizing the Levy-Yeyati and Sturzenegger de facto classification and then robusting it by the IMF de jure measurement) relative to other regimes via the panel multinomial logit approach. Empirical findings are as follows. First, in the full samples case we provide evidence that government is more likely to implement a flexible regime, but less likely to adopt a fixed regime, under a low level of composite and financial risk. Second, we find that Eurozone countries are more likely to choose a fixed exchange rate regime with a decrease in the level of country risk and favor a flexible regime in response to a shock from an increase of risk, which is opposite to non-Eurozone countries. Third, we note that high-risk countries are more likely to choose a fixed regime with a low level of composite and political risk in the government, but do not adjust the exchange rate regime as a shock absorber when facing economic and financial risks. It is interesting to see that those countries with relatively low risk display almost opposite results versus high-risk economies. Overall, we believe that it is critically important to account for political economy variables in a government’s exchange rate policy decisions, especially for country risks. All results are robust to the panel ordered probit model.

Keywords: country risk, political economy, exchange rate regimes, shock absorber

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Authors: Chia-Yi Wu, Jung-Chen Chang, Wen-Yu Hu, Ming-Been Lee

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In nearly all physical health conditions, suicide risk is increased compared to healthy people even after adjustment for age, gender, mental health, and substance use diagnoses. In order to highlight the importance of suicide risk assessment for the inpatients and early identification and engagement for inpatients’ mental health problems, a study was designed aiming at developing a comprehensive psychosomatic nursing engagement (PSNE) model with standardized operation procedures informing how nurses communicate, assess, and engage with the inpatients with emotional distress. The purpose of the study was to promote the gatekeeping role of clinical nurses in performing brief assessment and interventions to detect depression and anxiety symptoms among the inpatients, particularly in non-psychiatric wards. The study will be carried out in a 2000-bed university hospital in Northern Taiwan in 2019. We will select a ward for trial and develop feasible procedures and in-job training course for the nurses to offer mental health care, which will also be validated through professional consensus meeting. The significance of the study includes the following three points: (1) The study targets at an important but less-researched area of PSNE model in the cultural background of Taiwan, where hospital service is highly accessible, but mental health and suicide risk assessment are hardly provided by non-psychiatric healthcare personnel. (2) The issue of PSNE could be efficient and cost-effective in the identification of suicide risks at an early stage to prevent inpatient suicide or to reduce future suicide risk by early treatment of mental illnesses among the high-risk group of hospitalized patients who are more than three-times lethal to suicide. (3) Utilizing a brief tool with its established APP ('The Five-item Brief Symptom Rating Scale, BSRS-5'), we will invent the standardized procedure of PSNE and referral steps in collaboration with the medical teams across the study hospital. New technological tools nested within nursing assessment/intervention will concurrently be invented to facilitate better care quality. The major outcome measurements will include tools for early identification of common mental distress and suicide risks, i.e., the BSRS-5, revised BSRS-5, and the 9-item Concise Mental Health Checklist (CMHC-9). The main purpose of using the CMHC-9 in clinical suicide risk assessment is mainly to provide care and build-up therapeutic relationship with the client, so it will also be used to nursing training highlighting the skills of supportive care. Through early identification of the inpatients’ depressive symptoms or other mental health care needs such as insomnia, anxiety, or suicide risk, the majority of the nursing clinicians would be able to engage in critical interventions that alleviate the inpatients’ suffering from mental health problems, given a feasible nursing input.

Keywords: mental health care, clinical outcome improvement, clinical nurses, suicide prevention, psychosomatic nursing

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Authors: Livhuwani Muthelo

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The health and safety of the miners in the South African mining industry are guided by the regulations and standards which are anticipated to promote a healthy work environment and fatalities. It is of utmost importance for the miners to comply with these regulations/standards to protect themselves from potential occupational health and safety risks, accidents, and fatalities. The purpose of this study was to develop and validate strategies to enhance compliance with the Health and safety standards within the mining industries of Limpopo province in South Africa. A mixed-method exploratory sequential research design was adopted. The population consisted of 5350 miners. Purposive sampling was used to select the participants in the qualitative strand and stratified random sampling in the quantitative strand. Semi-structured interviews were conducted among the occupational health nurse practitioners and the health and safety team. Thematic analysis was used to generate an understanding of the interviews. In the quantitative strand, a survey was conducted using a self-administered questionnaire. Data were analysed using SPSS version 26.0. A descriptive statistical test was used in the analysis of data including frequencies, means, and standard deviation. Cronbach's alpha test was used to measure internal consistency. The integrated results revealed that there are diverse experiences related to health and safety standards compliance among the mineworkers. The main findings were challenges related to leadership compliance and also related to the cost of maintaining safety, Miner's behavior-related challenges; the impact of non-compliance on the overall health of the miners was also described, the conflict between production and safety. Health and safety compliance is not just mere compliance with regulations and standards but a culture that warrants the miners and organization to take responsibility for their behavior and actions towards health and safety. Thus taking responsibility for your well-being and other miners.

Keywords: perceptions, compliance, health and safety, legislation, standards, miners

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