Search results for: hazard analysis

Authors: Anil Sharma, Ajay Kumar Mahur, R. G. Sonkawade, A. C. Sharma, R. Prasad

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In coal fired thermal power stations, large amount of fly ash is produced after burning of coal. Fly ash is spread and distributed in the surrounding area by air and may be deposited on the soil of the region surrounding the power plant. Coal contains increased levels of these radionuclides and fly ash may increase the radioactivity in the soil around the power plant. Radon atoms entering into the pore space from the mineral grain are transported by diffusion and advection through this space until they in turn decay or are released into the atmosphere. In the present study, Soil samples were collected from the region around a Kasimpur Thermal Power Plant, Kasimpur, Aligarh (U.P.). Radon activity, radon surface exhalation and mass exhalation rates were measured using “sealed can technique” using LR 115-type II nuclear track detectors. Radon activities vary from 92.9 to 556.8 Bq m-3 with mean value of 279.8 Bq m-3. Surface exhalation rates (EX) in these samples are found to vary from 33.4 to 200.2 mBq m-2 h-1 with an average value of 100.5 mBq m-2 h-1 whereas, Mass exhalation rates (EM) vary from 1.2 to 7.7 mBq kg-1 h-1 with an average value of 3.8 mBq kg-1 h-1. Activity concentrations of radionuclides were measured in these samples by using a low level NaI (Tl) based gamma ray spectrometer. Activity concentrations of 226Ra 232Th and 40K vary from 12 to 49 Bq kg-1, 24 to 49 Bq kg-1 and 135 to 546 Bq kg-1 with overall mean values of 30.3 Bq kg-1, 38.5 Bq kg-1 and 317.8 Bq kg-1, respectively. Radium equivalent activity has been found to vary from 80.0 to 143.7 Bq kg-1 with an average value of 109.7 Bq kg-1. Absorbed dose rate varies from 36.1 to 66.4 nGy h-1 with an average value of 50.4 nGy h-1 and corresponding outdoor annual effective dose varies from 0.044 to 0.081 mSv with an average value of 0.061 mSv. Values of external and internal hazard index Hex, Hin in this study vary from 0.21 to 0.38 and 0.27 to 0.50 with an average value of 0.29 and 0.37, Respectively. The results will be discussed in light of various factors.

Keywords: natural radioactivity, radium equivalent activity, absorbed dose rate, gamma ray spectroscopy

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Authors: Mary Allagoa, Abir Al-Tabbaa

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The study explores the use of binders and additives, such as Portland cement, pulverized fuel ash, ground granulated blast furnace slag, and MgO, to decrease the concentration and leachability of pollutants in contaminated site soils. The research investigates their effectiveness and associated risks of using the binders, with a focus on Total Heavy metals (THM) and Total Petroleum Hydrocarbon (TPH). The goal of this research is to evaluate the performance and effectiveness of binders and additives in remediating soil pollutants. The study aims to assess the suitability of the mixtures for ground improvement purposes, determine the optimal dosage, and investigate the associated risks. The research utilizes physical (unconfined compressive strength) and chemical tests (batch leachability test) to assess the efficacy of the binders and additives. A completely randomized design one-way ANOVA is used to determine the significance within mix binders of THM. The study also employs incremental lifetime cancer risk assessments (ILCR) and other indexes to evaluate the associated risks. The study finds that Ground Granulated Blast Furnace Slag (GGBS): MgO is the most effective binder for remediation, particularly when using low dosages of MgO combined with higher dosages of GGBS binders on TPH. The results indicate that binders and additives can encapsulate and immobilize pollutants, thereby reducing their leachability and toxicity. The mean unconfined compressive strength of the soil ranges from 285.0- 320.5 kPa, while THM levels are less than 10 µg/l in GGBS: MgO and CEM: PFA but below 1 µg/l in CEM I based. The ILCR ranged from 6.77E-02 - 2.65E-01 and 5.444E-01 – 3.20 E+00, with the highest values observed under extreme conditions. The hazard index (HI), Risk allowable daily dose intake (ADI), and Risk chronic daily intake (CDI) were all less than 1 for the THM. The study identifies MgO as the best additive for use in soil remediation.

Keywords: risk ADI, risk CDI, ILCR, novel binders, additives binders, hazard index

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Authors: P. Mukhopadhyay, N. C. Dey

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Occupational health hazard is a very common term in every emerging country. Along with the unorganized sector, most organized sectors including government industries are suffering from this affliction. In addition to workload, the seasonal changes also have some impacts on working environment. With this focus in mind, one hundred male industrial workers, who are directly involved to the task of Periodic Overhauling (POH) in a fabricating workshop in the public domain are selected for this research work. They have been studied during work periods throughout different seasons in a year. For each and every season, the participants working heart rate (WHR) is measured and compared with the standards given by different national and internationally recognized agencies i.e., World Health Organization (WHO) and American Conference of Governmental Industrial Hygienists (ACGIH) etc. The different environmental parameters i.e. dry bulb temperature (DBT), wet bulb temperature (WBT), globe temperature (GT), natural wet bulb temperature (NWB), relative humidity (RH), wet bulb globe temperature (WBGT), air velocity (AV), effective temperature (ET) are recorded throughout the seasons to critically observe the effect of seasonal changes on the WHR of the workers. The effect of changes in environment to the WHR of the workers is very much surprising. It is found that the percentages of workers who belong to the ‘very heavy’ workload category are 83.33%, 66.66% and 16.66% in the summer, rainy and winter seasons, respectively. Ongoing undertaking of this type of job profile forces the worker towards occupational disorders causing absenteeism. This occurrence results in lower production rates, and on the other hand, costs due to medical claims also weaken the industry’s economic condition. In this circumstance, the authors are trying to focus on some remedial measures from the ergonomic angle by proposing a new work/ rest regimen and introducing engineering controls along with management controls which may help the worker, and consequently, the management also.

Keywords: workload, working heart rate, occupational health hazard, industrial worker

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Authors: Amin Asgarian, Ghyslaine McClure

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Proper seismic evaluation of Non-Structural Components (NSCs) mandates an accurate estimation of floor seismic demands (i.e. acceleration and displacement demands). Most of the current international codes incorporate empirical equations to calculate equivalent static seismic force for which NSCs and their anchorage system must be designed. These equations, in general, are functions of component mass and peak seismic acceleration to which NSCs are subjected to during the earthquake. However, recent studies have shown that these recommendations are suffered from several shortcomings such as neglecting the higher mode effect, tuning effect, NSCs damping effect, etc. which cause underestimation of the component seismic acceleration demand. This work is aimed to circumvent the aforementioned shortcomings of code provisions as well as improving them by proposing a simplified, practical, and yet accurate approach to generate acceleration Floor Design Spectra (FDS) directly from corresponding Uniform Hazard Spectra (UHS) (i.e. design spectra for structural components). A database of 27 Reinforced Concrete (RC) buildings in which Ambient Vibration Measurements (AVM) have been conducted. The database comprises 12 low-rise, 10 medium-rise, and 5 high-rise buildings all located in Montréal, Canada and designated as post-disaster buildings or emergency shelters. The buildings are subjected to a set of 20 compatible seismic records and Floor Response Spectra (FRS) in terms of pseudo acceleration are derived using the proposed approach for every floor of the building in both horizontal directions considering 4 different damping ratios of NSCs (i.e. 2, 5, 10, and 20% viscous damping). Several effective parameters on NSCs response are evaluated statistically. These parameters comprise NSCs damping ratios, tuning of NSCs natural period with one of the natural periods of supporting structure, higher modes of supporting structures, and location of NSCs. The entire spectral region is divided into three distinct segments namely short-period, fundamental period, and long period region. The derived roof floor response spectra for NSCs with 5% damping are compared with the 5% damping UHS and procedure are proposed to generate roof FDS for NSCs with 5% damping directly from 5% damped UHS in each spectral region. The generated FDS is a powerful, practical, and accurate tool for seismic design and assessment of acceleration-sensitive NSCs particularly in existing post-critical buildings which have to remain functional even after the earthquake and cannot tolerate any damage to NSCs.

Keywords: earthquake engineering, operational and functional components (OFCs), operational modal analysis (OMA), seismic assessment and design

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Authors: Salwa M. Almomen, Mona A. Almaghrabi, Saja M. Alhabardi, Adel A. Alrwisan

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Background: Hepatotoxicity is a major reason for medication withdrawal from the markets. Unfortunately, serious adverse hepatic effects can occur after marketing with limited indicators during clinical development. Therefore, finding possible predictors for hepatotoxicity might guide the monitoring program of various stakeholders. Methods: We examined the clinical review documents for drugs approved in the US from 2011 to 2016 to evaluate their hepatic safety profile. Predictors: we assessed whether these medications meet Hy’s Law with hepatotoxicity grade ≥ 3, labeled hepatic adverse effects at approval, or accelerated approval status. Outcome: post-marketing regulatory action related to hepatotoxicity, including product withdrawal or updates to warning, precaution, or adverse effects sections. Statistical analysis: drugs were included in the analysis from the time of approval until the end of 2019 or the first post-marketing regulatory action related to hepatotoxicity, whichever occurred first. The hazard ratio (HR) was estimated using Cox-regression analysis. Results: We included 192 medications in the study. We classified 48 drugs as having grade ≥ 3 hepatotoxicities, 43 had accelerated approval status, and 74 had labeled information about hepatotoxicity prior to marketing. The adjusted HRs for post-marketing regulatory action for products with grade ≥ 3 hepatotoxicity was 0.61 (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.17-2.23), 0.92 (95%CI, 0.29-2.93) for a drug approved via accelerated approval program, and was 0.91 (95%CI, 0.33-2.56) for drugs with labeled hepatotoxicity information at approval time. Conclusion: This study does not provide conclusive evidence on the association between post-marketing regulatory action and grade ≥ 3 hepatotoxicity, accelerated approval status, or availability of labeled information at approval due to sampling size and channeling bias.

Keywords: accelerated approvals, hepatic adverse effects, drug-induced liver injury, hepatotoxicity predictors, post-marketing withdrawal

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Authors: Serge Provost, Abdous Saboor

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A q-analogue of the generalized extreme value distribution which includes the Gumbel distribution is introduced. The additional parameter q allows for increased modeling flexibility. The resulting distribution can have a finite, semi-infinite or infinite support. It can also produce several types of hazard rate functions. The model parameters are determined by making use of the method of maximum likelihood. It will be shown that it compares favourably to three related distributions in connection with the modeling of a certain hydrological data set.

Keywords: extreme value theory, generalized extreme value distribution, goodness-of-fit statistics, Gumbel distribution

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Authors: Fasil Wagnew, Kerri Viney, Kefyalew Addis Alene, Matthew Kelly, Darren Gray

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Background: Undernutrition is a risk factor for tuberculosis (TB), including poor treatment outcomes. However, evidence regarding the effect of undernutrition on TB treatment outcomes is not well understood. We aimed to evaluate the effect of undernutrition on sputum culture conversion and treatment outcomes among people with multi-drug resistance (MDR)-TB. Methods: We searched for publications in the Medline, Embase, Scopus, and Web of Science databases without restrictions on geography or year of publication. We conducted a random-effect meta-analysis to estimate the effects of undernutrition on sputum culture conversion and treatment outcomes. Two reviewers independently assessed the study eligibility, extracted the necessary information, and assessed the risk of bias. Depending on the nature of the data, odds ratio (OR) and hazard ratio (HR) with 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were used to summarize the effect estimates. Potential publication bias was checked using funnel plots and Egger’s tests. Results: Of 2358 records screened, 59 studies comprising a total of 31,254 people with MDR-TB were included. Undernutrition was significantly associated with a lower sputum culture conversion rate (HR 0·7, 95% CI 0·6–0·9, I2=67·1%) and a higher rate of mortality (OR 2·9, 95%CI 2·1–3·8, I2=23·7%) and unfavourable treatment outcomes (OR 1·8, 95%CI 1·5–2·0, I2=72·7%). There was no statistically significant publication bias in the included studies. Three studies were low, forty-two studies were moderate, and fourteen studies were high quality. Interpretations: Undernutrition was significantly associated with unfavourable treatment outcomes, including mortality and lower sputum culture conversion among people with MDR-TB. These findings have implications for supporting targeted nutritional interventions alongside standardised second-line TB drugs.

Keywords: undernutrition, MDR-TB, sputum culture conversion, treatment outcomes, meta-analysis

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Authors: Eric Shannon, Mark J. McGuire, John P. Parmigiani

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A hazard associated with the use of timber harvesters is chain shot. Harvester saw chain is subjected to large dynamic mechanical stresses which can cause it to fracture. The resulting open loop of saw chain can fracture a second time and create a projectile consisting of several saw-chain links referred to as a chain shot. Its high kinetic energy enables it to penetrate operator enclosures and be a significant hazard. Accurate data on projectile composition, mass, and speed are needed for the design of both operator enclosures resistant to projectile penetration and for saw chain resistant to fracture. The work presented here contributes to providing this data through the use of a test machine designed and built at Oregon State University. The machine’s enclosure is a standard shipping container. To safely contain any anticipated chain shot, the container was lined with both 9.5 mm AR500 steel plates and 50 mm high-density polyethylene (HDPE). During normal operation, projectiles are captured virtually undamaged in the HDPE enabling subsequent analysis. Standard harvester components are used for bar mounting and chain tensioning. Standard guide bars and saw chains are used. An electric motor with flywheel drives the system. Testing procedures follow ISO Standard 11837. Chain speed at break was approximately 45.5 m/s. Data was collected using both a 75 cm solid bar (Oregon 752HSFB149) and 90 cm solid bar (Oregon 902HSFB149). Saw chains used were 89 Drive Link .404”-18HX loops made from factory spools. Standard 16-tooth sprockets were used. Projectile speed was measured using both a high-speed camera and a chronograph. Both rotational and translational kinetic energy are calculated. For this study 50 chain shot events were executed. Results showed that projectiles consisted of a variety combinations of drive links, tie straps, and cutter links. Most common (occurring in 60% of the events) was a drive-link / tie-strap / drive-link combination having a mass of approximately 10.33 g. Projectile mass varied from a minimum of 2.99 g corresponding to a drive link only to a maximum of 18.91 g corresponding to a drive-link / tie-strap / drive-link / cutter-link / drive-link combination. Projectile translational speed was measured to be approximately 270 m/s and rotational speed of approximately 14000 r/s. The calculated translational and rotational kinetic energy magnitudes each average over 600 J. This study provides useful information for both timber harvester manufacturers and saw chain manufacturers to design products that reduce the hazards associated with timber harvesting.

Keywords: chain shot, timber harvesters, safety, testing

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Authors: Kahlil Fredrick Cui, Marissa Pastor

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Earthquakes are complex phenomena, exhibiting complex correlations in space, time, and magnitude. Recently, the concept of complex networks has been used to shed light on the statistical and dynamical characteristics of regional seismicity. In this work, we study the relationships and interactions of seismic regions in Chile, Japan, and the Philippines through weighted and directed complex network analysis. Geographical areas are digitized into cells of fixed dimensions which in turn become the nodes of the network when an earthquake has occurred therein. Nodes are linked if a correlation exists between them as determined and measured by a correlation metric. The networks are found to be scale-free, exhibiting power-law behavior in the distributions of their different centrality measures: the in- and out-degree and the in- and out-strength. The evidence is also found of preferential interaction between seismically active regions through their degree-degree correlations suggesting that seismicity is dictated by the activity of a few active regions. The importance of a seismic region to the overall seismicity is measured using a generalized centrality metric taken to be an indicator of its activity or passivity. The spatial distribution of earthquake activity indicates the areas where strong earthquakes have occurred in the past while the passivity distribution points toward the likely locations an earthquake would occur whenever another one happens elsewhere. Finally, we propose a method that would project the location of the next possible earthquake using the generalized centralities coupled with correlations calculated between the latest earthquakes and a geographical point in the future.

Keywords: complex networks, correlations, earthquake, hazard assessment

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Authors: Kuo-Chun Chien, Chia-Hui Chang, Ren-Der Sun

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Legal Judgment Prediction (LJP) is a subtask for legal AI. Its main purpose is to use the facts of a case to predict the judgment result. In Taiwan's criminal procedure, when prosecutors complete the investigation of the case, they will decide whether to prosecute the suspect and which article of criminal law should be used based on the facts and evidence of the case. In this study, we collected 305,240 indictments from the public inquiry system of the procuratorate of the Ministry of Justice, which included 169 charges and 317 articles from 21 laws. We take the crime facts in the indictments as the main input to jointly learn the prediction model for law source, article, and charge simultaneously based on the pre-trained Bert model. For single article cases where the frequency of the charge and article are greater than 50, the prediction performance of law sources, articles, and charges reach 97.66, 92.22, and 60.52 macro-f1, respectively. To understand the big performance gap between articles and charges, we used a bipartite graph to visualize the relationship between the articles and charges, and found that the reason for the poor prediction performance was actually due to the wording precision. Some charges use the simplest words, while others may include the perpetrator or the result to make the charges more specific. For example, Article 284 of the Criminal Law may be indicted as “negligent injury”, "negligent death”, "business injury", "driving business injury", or "non-driving business injury". As another example, Article 10 of the Drug Hazard Control Regulations can be charged as “Drug Control Regulations” or “Drug Hazard Control Regulations”. In order to solve the above problems and more accurately predict the article and charge, we plan to include the article content or charge names in the input, and use the sentence-pair classification method for question-answer problems in the BERT model to improve the performance. We will also consider a sequence-to-sequence approach to charge prediction.

Keywords: legal judgment prediction, deep learning, natural language processing, BERT, data visualization

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Authors: Aarthi Sridhar, Henri Gavin, Karah Kelly

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Rolling Isolation Systems (RISs) are simple and effective means to mitigate earthquake hazards to equipment in critical and precious facilities, such as hospitals, network collocation facilities, supercomputer centers, and museums. The RIS works by isolating components acceleration the inertial forces felt by the subsystem. The RIS consists of two platforms with counter-facing concave surfaces (dishes) in each corner. Steel balls lie inside the dishes and allow the relative motion between the top and bottom platform. Formerly, a mathematical model for the dynamics of RISs was developed using Lagrange’s equations (LE) and experimentally validated. A new mathematical model was developed using Gauss’s Principle of Least Constraint (GPLC) and verified by comparing impulse response trajectories of the GPLC model and the LE model in terms of the peak displacements and accelerations of the top platform. Mathematical models for the RIS are tedious to derive because of the non-holonomic rolling constraints imposed on the system. However, using Gauss’s Principle of Least constraint to find the equations of motion removes some of the obscurity and yields a system that can be easily extended. Though the GPLC model requires more state variables, the equations of motion are far simpler. The non-holonomic constraint is enforced in terms of accelerations and therefore requires additional constraint stabilization methods in order to avoid the possibility that numerical integration methods can cause the system to go unstable. The GPLC model allows the incorporation of more physical aspects related to the RIS, such as contribution of the vertical velocity of the platform to the kinetic energy and the mass of the balls. This mathematical model for the RIS is a tool to predict the motion of the isolation platform. The ability to statistically quantify the expected responses of the RIS is critical in the implementation of earthquake hazard mitigation.

Keywords: earthquake hazard mitigation, earthquake isolation, Gauss’s Principle of Least Constraint, nonlinear dynamics, rolling isolation system

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Authors: Huda Aljabi

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The existence of heavy metals similar to cadmium, arsenic, lead and mercury in the drinking water be able to be a threat to public health. The amount of the substances of these heavy metals in drinking water has expected importance. The National Primary Drinking Water Regulations have set limits for the concentrations of these elements in drinking water because of their toxicity. Furthermore, bromate shaped during the disinfection of drinking water by Ozonation can also be a health hazard. The Paper proposed here will concentrate on the compilation of all available data and information on the presence of trace metals and bromate in the drinking water at residential houses distributed over different areas in Kuwait. New data will also be collected through a sampling of drinking water at some of the residential houses present in different areas of Kuwait and their analysis for the contents of trace metals and bromate. The collected data will be presented on maps showing the distribution of these metals and bromate in the drinking water of Kuwait. Correlation among different chemical parameters will also be investigated using the GRAPHER software. This will help both the Ministry of Electricity and Water (MEW) and the Ministry of Health (MOH) in taking corrective measures and also in planning the infrastructure activities for the future.

Keywords: bromate, ozonation, GIS, heavy metals

Procedia PDF Downloads 148

Authors: Neha Gupta

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Landslide vulnerability is considered as the crucial parameter for the assessment of landslide risk. The term vulnerability defined as the damage or degree of elements at risk of different dimensions, i.e., physical, social, economic, and environmental dimensions. Himalaya region is very prone to multi-hazard such as floods, forest fires, earthquakes, and landslides. With the increases in fatalities rates, loss of infrastructure, and economy due to landslide in the Himalaya region, leads to the assessment of vulnerability. In this study, a methodology to measure the combination of vulnerability dimension, i.e., social vulnerability, physical vulnerability, and environmental vulnerability in one framework. A combined result of these vulnerabilities has rarely been carried out. But no such approach was applied in the Indian Scenario. The methodology was applied in an area of east Sikkim Himalaya, India. The physical vulnerability comprises of building footprint layer extracted from remote sensing data and Google Earth imaginary. The social vulnerability was assessed by using population density based on land use. The land use map was derived from a high-resolution satellite image, and for environment vulnerability assessment NDVI, forest, agriculture land, distance from the river were assessed from remote sensing and DEM. The classes of social vulnerability, physical vulnerability, and environment vulnerability were normalized at the scale of 0 (no loss) to 1 (loss) to get the homogenous dataset. Then the Multi-Criteria Analysis (MCA) was used to assign individual weights to each dimension and then integrate it into one frame. The final vulnerability was further classified into four classes from very low to very high.

Keywords: landslide, multi-criteria analysis, MCA, physical vulnerability, social vulnerability

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Authors: Bai Zhiwei, Zhang Shuxia

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By sealing constraint, the system of nuclear fuel production penetrates a trace of air in during its service. The vapor in the air can react with material in the system and generate solid uranium compounds. These solid uranium compounds continue to accumulate and attached to the production equipment and pipeline of system, which not only affects the operation reliability of production equipment and give off radiation hazard as well after system retired. Therefore, it is necessary to select a reasonable method to remove it. Through the analysis of physicochemical properties of solid uranium compounds, halogenated fluoride compounds are selected as a cleaning agent, which can remove solid uranium compounds effectively. This paper studied the related chemical reaction under the condition of static test and results show that the selection of high fluoride halogen compounds can be removed solid uranium compounds completely. The study on the influence of reaction pressure with the reaction rate discovered a phenomenon that the higher the pressure, the faster the reaction rate.

Keywords: fluoride halogen compound, remove, radiation, solid uranium compound

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Authors: Abdullah Alenezi, Mane Alsudrawi, Rafat Misak

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Kuwait is faced with a potentially wide and harmful range of both natural and anthropogenic hazardous events such as dust storms, floods, fires, nuclear accidents, earthquakes, oil spills, tsunamis and other disasters. For Kuwait can be highly vulnerable to these complex environmental risks, an up-to-date and in-depth understanding of their typology, genesis, and impact on the Kuwaiti society is needed. Adequate anticipation and management of environmental crises further require a comprehensive system of decision support to the benefit of decision makers to further bridge the gap between (technical) risk understanding and public action. For that purpose, the Kuwait Institute for Scientific Research (KISR), intends to establish a decision support center for management of the environmental crisis in Kuwait. The center will support policy makers, stakeholders and national committees with technical information that helps them efficiently and effectively assess, monitor to manage environmental disasters using decision support tools. These tools will build on state of the art quantification and visualization techniques, such as remote sensing information, Geographical Information Systems (GIS), simulation and prediction models, early warning systems, etc. The center is conceived as a central facility which will be designed, operated and managed by KISR in coordination with national authorities and decision makers of the country. Our vision is that by 2035 the center will be recognized as a leading national source of scientific advice on national risk management in Kuwait and build unity of effort among Kuwaiti’s institutions, government agencies, public and private organizations through provision and sharing of information. The project team now focuses on capacity building through upgrading some KISR facilities manpower development, build strong collaboration with international alliance.

Keywords: decision support, environment, hazard, Kuwait

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Authors: Rene Jimenez, Sonia E. Ruiz, Miguel A. Orellana

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On 09/19/2017, a Mw = 7.1 intraslab earthquake occurred in Mexico causing the collapse of about 40 buildings. Many of these were 5- or 6-story buildings with soft first story; so, it is desirable to perform a structural fragility analysis of typical structures representative of those buildings and to propose a reliable structural solution. Here, a typical 5-story building constituted by regular R/C moment-resisting frames in the first story and confined masonry walls in the upper levels, similar to the collapsed structures on the 09/19/2017 Mexico earthquake, is analyzed. Three different structural solutions of the 5-story building are considered: S1) it is designed in accordance with the Mexico City Building Code-2004; S2) then, the column dimensions of the first story corresponding to S1 are reduced, and S3) viscous dampers are added at the first story of solution S2. A number of dynamic incremental analyses are performed for each structural solution, using a 3D structural model. The hysteretic behavior model of the masonry was calibrated with experiments performed at the Laboratory of Structures at UNAM. Ten seismic ground motions are used to excite the structures; they correspond to ground motions recorded in intermediate soil of Mexico City with a dominant period around 1s, where the structures are located. The fragility curves of the buildings are obtained for different values of the maximum inter-story drift demands. Results show that solutions S1 and S3 give place to similar probabilities of exceedance of a given value of inter-story drift for the same seismic intensity, and that solution S2 presents a higher probability of exceedance for the same seismic intensity and inter-story drift demand. Therefore, it is concluded that solution S3 (which corresponds to the building with soft first story and energy dissipation devices) can be a reliable solution from the structural point of view.

Keywords: demand hazard analysis, fragility curves, incremental dynamic analyzes, soft-first story, structural capacity

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Authors: S. P. Rana

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Objectives: For the manufacture of a very thin strip or a strip with a high-quality finish, the stainless steel sheet that is called billet is re-rolled in re-rolling mill to make stainless steel sheet of 18 gauges. The rolls of re-rolling mill exert tremendous pressure over the sheet and there is likely chance of breaking of stainless steel strip from the sheet. The objective of the study was to minimise the number of accidents in steel re-rolling mills due to ejection of stainless steel strip and to minimize the pollution caused by the pickling process used in these units. Methods: Looking into the high rate of frequency and severity of accidents as well as pollution hazard in re-rolling and pickling mills, it becomes essential to make necessary arrangements for prevention of accidents in such type of industry. The author carried out survey/inspections of a large number of re-rolling and pickling mills and allied units. During the course of inspection, the working of these steel re-rolling and pickling mills was closely studied and monitored. A number of accidents involving re-rolling mills were investigated and subsequently remedial measures to prevent the occurrence of such accidents were suggested. Assessment of occupational safety and health system of these units was carried out and compliance level of the statutory requirements was checked. The workers were medically examined and monitored to ascertain their health conditions. Results: Proper use of safety gadgets by workers, machine guarding and regular training brought down the risk to an acceptable level and discharged effluent pollution was brought down to permissible limits. The fatal accidents have been reduced by 83%. Conclusions: Effective enforcement and implementation of the directions/suggestions given to the managements of such units brought down the no. of accidents to a rational level. The number of fatal accidents has reduced by 83% during the study period. The effective implementation of pollution control device curtailed the pollution level to an acceptable level.

Keywords: re-rolling mill, hazard, accident, health hazards

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Authors: Hui-Chen Tsai, Chien-Jen Ho, Bo-Wei Power Liang, Ying Shen, Yi-Hsin Lai

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Former Taiwan Metal Mining Corporation and its associated 3 wasted flue gas tunnels, hereinafter referred to as 'TMMC', was contaminated with heavy metals, Polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) and Total Petroleum Hydrocarbons (TPHs) in soil. Since the contamination had been exposed and unmanaged in the environment for more than 40 years, the extent of the contamination area is estimated to be more than 25 acres. Additionally, TMMC is located in a remote, mountainous area where almost no residents are residing in the 1-km radius area. Thus, it was deemed necessary to conduct an ecological risk assessment in order to evaluate the details of future contaminated site management plan. According to the winter and summer, ecological investigation results, one type of endangered, multiple vulnerable and near threaten plant was discovered, as well as numerous other protected species, such as Crested Serpent Eagle, Crested Goshawk, Black Kite, Brown Shrike, Taiwan Blue Magpie were observed. Ecological soil screening level (Eco-SSLs) developed by USEPA was adopted as a reference to conduct screening assessment. Since all the protected species observed surrounding TMMC site were birds, screening ecological risk assessment was conducted on birds only. The assessment was assessed mainly based on the chemical evaluation, which the contamination in different environmental media was compared directly with the ecological impact levels (EIL) of each evaluation endpoints and the respective hazard quotient (HQ) and hazard index (HI) could be obtained. The preliminary ecological risk assessment results indicated HI is greater than 1. In other words, the biological stressors (birds) were exposed to the contamination, which was already exceeded the dosage that could cause unacceptable impacts to the ecological system. This result was mainly due to the high concentration of arsenic, metal and lead; thus it was suggested the above mention contaminants should be remediated as soon as possible or proper risk management measures should be taken.

Keywords: screening, ecological risk assessment, ecological impact levels, risk management

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Authors: Sherly M. A., Subhankar Karmakar, Terence Chan, Christian Rau

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Floods are one of the most frequent natural disasters, causing widespread devastation, economic damage and threat to human lives. Hydrologic impacts of climate change and intensification of urbanization are two root causes of increased flood occurrences, and recent research trends are oriented towards understanding these aspects. Due to rapid urbanization, population of cities across the world has increased exponentially leading to improperly planned developments. Climate change due to natural and anthropogenic activities on our environment has resulted in spatiotemporal changes in rainfall patterns. The combined effect of both aggravates the vulnerability of urban populations to floods. In this context, an efficient and effective flood risk management with its core component as flood risk mapping is essential in prevention and mitigation of flood disasters. Urban flood risk mapping involves zoning of an urban region based on its flood risk, which depicts the spatiotemporal pattern of frequency and severity of hazards, exposure to hazards, and degree of vulnerability of the population in terms of socio-economic, environmental and infrastructural aspects. Although vulnerability is a key component of risk, its assessment and mapping is often less advanced than hazard mapping and quantification. A synergic effort from technical experts and social scientists is vital for the effectiveness of flood risk management programs. Despite an increasing volume of quality research conducted on urban flood risk, a comprehensive multidisciplinary approach towards flood risk mapping still remains neglected due to which many of the input parameters and definitions of flood risk concepts are imprecise. Thus, the objectives of this review are to introduce and precisely define the relevant input parameters, concepts and terms in urban flood risk mapping, along with its methodology, current status and limitations. The review also aims at providing thought-provoking insights to potential future researchers and flood management professionals.

Keywords: flood risk, flood hazard, flood vulnerability, flood modeling, urban flooding, urban flood risk mapping

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Authors: Padma Chutoo, Elena Kulinskaya, Ilyas Bakbergenuly, Nicholas Steel, Dmitri Pchejetski

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Stroke is associated with a significant risk of morbidity and mortality. There is scarcity of research on the long-term survival after first-ever ischaemic stroke (IS) events in England with regards to effects of different medical therapies and comorbidities. The objective of this study was to model the all-cause mortality after an IS diagnosis in the adult population of England. Using a retrospective case-control design, we extracted the electronic medical records of patients born prior to or in year 1960 in England with a first-ever ischaemic stroke diagnosis from January 1986 to January 2017 within the Health and Improvement Network (THIN) database. Participants with a history of ischaemic stroke were matched to 3 controls by sex and age at diagnosis and general practice. The primary outcome was the all-cause mortality. The hazards of the all-cause mortality were estimated using a Weibull-Cox survival model which included both scale and shape effects and a shared random effect of general practice. The model included sex, birth cohort, socio-economic status, comorbidities and medical therapies. 20,250 patients with a history of IS (cases) and 55,519 controls were followed up to 30 years. From 2008 to 2015, the one-year all-cause mortality for the IS patients declined with an absolute change of -0.5%. Preventive treatments to cases increased considerably over time. These included prescriptions of statins and antihypertensives. However, prescriptions for antiplatelet drugs decreased in the routine general practice since 2010. The survival model revealed a survival benefit of antiplatelet treatment to stroke survivors with hazard ratio (HR) of 0.92 (0.90 – 0.94). IS diagnosis had significant interactions with gender and age at entry and hypertension diagnosis. IS diagnosis was associated with high risk of all-cause mortality with HR= 3.39 (3.05-3.72) for cases compared to controls. Hypertension was associated with poor survival with HR = 4.79 (4.49 - 5.09) for hypertensive cases relative to non-hypertensive controls, though the detrimental effect of hypertension has not reached significance for hypertensive controls, HR = 1.19(0.82-1.56). This study of English primary care data showed that between 2008 and 2015, the rates of prescriptions of stroke preventive treatments increased, and a short-term all-cause mortality after IS stroke declined. However, stroke resulted in poor long-term survival. Hypertension, a modifiable risk factor, was found to be associated with poor survival outcomes in IS patients. Antiplatelet drugs were found to be protective to survival. Better efforts are required to reduce the burden of stroke through health service development and primary prevention.

Keywords: general practice, hazard ratio, health improvement network (THIN), ischaemic stroke, multiple imputation, Weibull-Cox model.

Procedia PDF Downloads 138

Authors: S. Cowley, M. Lawrance, D. Bick, R. McCord

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Technology that automates manual handling (musculoskeletal disorder or MSD) risk assessments is increasingly available to ergonomists, engineers, generalist health and safety practitioners alike. The risk assessment process is generally based on the use of wearable motion sensors that capture information about worker movements for real-time or for posthoc analysis. Traditionally, MSD risk assessment is undertaken with the assistance of a checklist such as that from the SafeWork Australia code of practice, the expert assessor observing the task and ideally engaging with the worker in a discussion about the detail. Automation enables the non-expert to complete assessments and does not always require the assessor to be there. This clearly has cost and time benefits for the practitioner but is it an improvement on the assessment by the human. Human risk assessments draw on the knowledge and expertise of the assessor but, like all risk assessments, are highly subjective. The complexity of the checklists and models used in the process can be off-putting and sometimes will lead to the assessment becoming the focus and the end rather than a means to an end; the focus on risk control is lost. Automated risk assessment handles the complexity of the assessment for the assessor and delivers a simple risk score that enables decision-making regarding risk control. Being machine-based, they are objective and will deliver the same each time they assess an identical task. However, the WHS professional needs to know that this emergent technology asks the right questions and delivers the right answers. Whether it improves the risk assessment process and results or simply distances the professional from the task and the worker. They need clarity as to whether automation of manual task risk analysis and reporting leads to risk control or to a focus on the worker. Critically, they need evidence as to whether automation in this area of hazard management leads to better risk control or just a bigger collection of assessments. Practitioner experienced determinants of this automated manual task risk analysis and reporting being a benefit or distraction will address an understanding of emergent risk assessment technology, its use and things to consider when making decisions about adopting and applying these technologies.

Keywords: automated, manual-handling, risk-assessment, machine-based

Procedia PDF Downloads 92

Authors: Alok Madan, Arshad K. Hashmi

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The paper presents a plastic analysis procedure based on the energy balance concept for performance based seismic retrofit of multi-story multi-bay masonry infilled reinforced concrete (R/C) frames with a ‘soft’ ground story using passive energy dissipation (PED) devices with the objective of achieving a target performance level of the retrofitted R/C frame for a given seismic hazard level at the building site. The proposed energy based plastic analysis procedure was employed for developing performance based design (PBD) formulations for PED devices for a simulated application in seismic retrofit of existing frame structures designed in compliance with the prevalent standard codes of practice. The PBD formulations developed for PED devices were implemented for simulated seismic retrofit of a representative code-compliant masonry infilled R/C frame with a ‘soft’ ground story using friction dampers as the PED device. Non-linear dynamic analyses of the retrofitted masonry infilled R/C frames is performed to investigate the efficacy and accuracy of the proposed energy based plastic analysis procedure in achieving the target performance level under design level earthquakes. Results of non-linear dynamic analyses demonstrate that the maximum inter-story drifts in the masonry infilled R/C frames with a ‘soft’ ground story that is retrofitted with the friction dampers designed using the proposed PBD formulations are controlled within the target drifts under near-field as well far-field earthquakes.

Keywords: energy methods, masonry infilled frame, near-field earthquakes, seismic protection, supplemental damping devices

Procedia PDF Downloads 271

Authors: G. O. Avwiri, E. O. Agbalagba, C. P. Ononugbo

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Activity concentrations of natural radionuclides (226Ra, 232Th and 40K) in the soil, sediment and water of oil producing communities in Delta and Rivers States were determined using γ-ray spectrometry. The mean soil/sediment activity concentration of 226Ra, 232Th and 40K in onshore west in Delta state is 40.2±5.1Bqkg-1, 29.9±4.2Bqkg-1 and 361.5±20.0Bqkg-1 respectively, the corresponding values obtained in onshore east1 of Rivers state is 20.9±2.8Bqkg-1, 19.4±2.5Bqkg-1and 260.0±14.1Bqkg-1 respectively. While the mean activity concentration of 226Ra, 232Th and 40K in onshore east2 of Rivers state is 29.3±3.5Bqkg-1, 21.6±2.6Bqkg-1 and 262.1±14.6Bqkg-1 respectively. These values obtained show enhanced NORMs but are well within the world range. All the radiation hazard indices examined in soil have mean values lower than their maximum permissible limits. In drinking water, the obtained average values of226Ra, 228Ra and 40K is 8.4±0.9, 7.3±0.7 and 29.9±2.2Bql-1 respectively for well water, 4.5±0.6, 5.1±0.4 and 20.9±2.0Bql-1 respectively for borehole water and 11.3±1.2, 8.5±0.7 and 32.4±3.7Bql-1 respectively for river water in onshore west. For onshore east1, average activity concentration of 226Ra, 228Ra and 40K is 8.3±1.0, 8.6±1.1 and 39.6±3.3Bql-1 respectively for well water, 3.8±0.8, 4.9±0.6 and 35.7±4.1Bql-1 respectively for borehole water and 5.5±0.8, 5.4±0.7 and 36.9±3.8Bql-1 respectively for river water. While in onshore east2 average value of 226Ra, 228Ra and 40K is 10.1±1.1, 8.3±1.0 and 50.0±3.9Bql-1 respectively for well water, 4.7±0.9, 4.0±0.4 and 28.8±3.0Bql-1 respectively for borehole water and 7.7±0.9, 6.1±0.8 and 27.1±2.9Bql-1 respectively for river water and the average activity concentrations in the produced water226Ra, 228Ra and 40K is 5.182.14Bql-1, 6.042.48Bql-1 and 48.7813.67Bql-1 respectively. These values obtained are well above world average values of 1.0, 0.1 and 10Bql-1 for 226Ra, 228Ra and 40K respectively, those of the control site values and most reported values around the world. Though the hazard indices (Raeq, Hex, Hin) examined in water is still within the tolerable level, the committed effective dose estimated are above ICPR 0.1 mSvy-1 permissible limits. The overall results show that soil and sediment in the area are safe radiologically, but the result indicates some level of water pollution in the studied area.

Keywords: radioactivity, soil, sediment and water, Niger Delta, gamma detector

Procedia PDF Downloads 262

Authors: A. Nicknam, N. Eftekhari, A. Mazarei, M. Ganjvar

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This article presents an alternative collapse capacity intensity measure in the three elements form which is influenced by the spectral ordinates at periods longer than that of the first mode period at near and far source sites. A parameter, denoted by β, is defined by which the spectral ordinate effects, up to the effective period (2T_1), on the intensity measure are taken into account. The methodology permits to meet the hazard-levelled target extreme event in the probabilistic and deterministic forms. A MATLAB code is developed involving OpenSees to calculate the collapse capacities of the 8 archetype RC structures having 2 to 20 stories for regression process. The incremental dynamic analysis (IDA) method is used to calculate the structure’s collapse values accounting for the element stiffness and strength deterioration. The general near field set presented by FEMA is used in a series of performing nonlinear analyses. 8 linear relationships are developed for the 8structutres leading to the correlation coefficient up to 0.93. A collapse capacity near field prediction equation is developed taking into account the results of regression processes obtained from the 8 structures. The proposed prediction equation is validated against a set of actual near field records leading to a good agreement. Implementation of the proposed equation to the four archetype RC structures demonstrated different collapse capacities at near field site compared to those of FEMA. The reasons of differences are believed to be due to accounting for the spectral shape effects.

Keywords: collapse capacity, fragility analysis, spectral shape effects, IDA method

Procedia PDF Downloads 206

Authors: Sayyed Yaghoub Zolfegharifar, Khairul Anuar Kassim, Hossein Khoramrooz, Khodayar Farhadiasl, Sadegh Jahan

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Iran is one of the world's seismically active countries so that it experiences many small to medium earthquakes annually and a large earthquake every ten years. Due to seism tectonic conditions and special geographical and climatic position, Iran has the potential to create numerous severe earthquakes. Therefore, seismicity studies and seismic zonation of seismic zones of the country are necessary. In this article, the effect of local site conditions on the characteristics of seismic design in Rahmormoz will be examined. After analyzing the seismic hazard for Rahmormoz through deterministic and statistical methods and preparing the necessary geotechnical models based on available data, the ground response will be analyzed for different parts of the city based on four inputs and acceleration level estimated for bedrock through the equivalent linear method and by means of Deep Soil program. Finally, through the analysis of the obtained results, the seismic profiles of the ground surface for different parts of the city will be presented.

Keywords: seismic microzonation, ground response, resonance spectrum, period, site conditions

Procedia PDF Downloads 318

Authors: Eun-Taek Sin, Hyun-Ju Jang, Chang Geun Song, Yong-Sik Han

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Due to the climate change, the coastal urban area repeatedly suffers from the loss of property and life by flooding. There are three main causes of inland submergence. First, when heavy rain with high intensity occurs, the water quantity in inland cannot be drained into rivers by increase in impervious surface of the land development and defect of the pump, storm sewer. Second, river inundation occurs then water surface level surpasses the top of levee. Finally, Coastal inundation occurs due to rising sea water. However, previous studies ignored the complex mechanism of flooding, and showed discrepancy and inadequacy due to linear summation of each analysis result. In this study, inland flooding and river inundation were analyzed together by HDM-2D model. Petrov-Galerkin stabilizing method and flux-blocking algorithm were applied to simulate the inland flooding. In addition, sink/source terms with exponentially growth rate attribute were added to the shallow water equations to include the inland flooding analysis module. The applications of developed model gave satisfactory results, and provided accurate prediction in comprehensive flooding analysis. The applications of developed model gave satisfactory results, and provided accurate prediction in comprehensive flooding analysis. To consider the coastal surge, another module was developed by adding seawater to the existing Inland Flooding-River Inundation binding module for comprehensive flooding analysis. Based on the combined modules, the Coastal Inundation – Inland & River Flow Interface was simulated by inputting the flow rate and depth data in artificial flume. Accordingly, it was able to analyze the flood patterns of coastal cities over time. This study is expected to help identify the complex causes of flooding in coastal areas where complex flooding occurs, and assist in analyzing damage to coastal cities. Acknowledgements—This research was supported by a grant ‘Development of the Evaluation Technology for Complex Causes of Inundation Vulnerability and the Response Plans in Coastal Urban Areas for Adaptation to Climate Change’ [MPSS-NH-2015-77] from the Natural Hazard Mitigation Research Group, Ministry of Public Safety and Security of Korea.

Keywords: flooding analysis, river inundation, inland flooding, 2D hydrodynamic model

Procedia PDF Downloads 332

Authors: Alina Svechkina, Boris A. Portnov

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In line with a rapid increase in pollution sources and enforcement of stricter air pollution regulation, which lowers pollution levels, it becomes more difficult to identify actual risk sources behind the observed morbidity patterns, and new approaches are required to identify potential risks and take preventive actions. In the present study, we discuss a probabilistic approach to the spatial identification of a priori unidentified environmental health hazards. The underlying assumption behind the tested approach is that the observed adverse health patterns (morbidity, mortality) can become a source of information on the geographic location of environmental risk factors that stand behind them. Using this approach, we analyzed sources of environmental exposure using data on mortality rates available for the year 2015 for NUTS 3 (Nomenclature of Territorial Units for Statistics) subdivisions of the European Union. We identified several areas in the southwestern part of Europe as primary risk sources for the observed mortality patterns. Multivariate regressions, controlled by geographical location, climate conditions, GDP (gross domestic product) per capita, dependency ratios, population density, and the level of road freight revealed that mortality rates decline as a function of distance from the identified hazard location. We recommend the proposed approach an exploratory analysis tool for initial investigation of regional patterns of population morbidity patterns and factors behind it.

Keywords: mortality, environmental hazards, air pollution, distance decay gradient, multi regression analysis, Europe, NUTS3

Procedia PDF Downloads 135

Authors: Yehya Rasool, Mohit Agrawal

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The site characterization and site response analysis are the crucial steps for reliable seismic microzonation of an area. So, the basic parameters involved in these fundamental steps are required to be chosen properly in order to efficiently characterize the vulnerable sites of the study region. In this study, efforts are made to delineate the variations in the physical parameter of the soil for the summer and monsoon seasons of the year (2021) by using Horizontal-to-Vertical Spectral Ratios (HVSRs) recorded at five sites of the Indian Institute of Technology (Indian School of Mines), Dhanbad, Jharkhand, India. The data recording at each site was done in such a way that less amount of anthropogenic noise was recorded at each site. The analysis has been done for five seismic parameters like predominant frequency, H/V ratio, the phase velocity of Rayleigh waves, shear wave velocity (Vs), compressional wave velocity (Vp), and Poisson’s ratio for both the seasons of the year. From the results, it is observed that these parameters majorly vary drastically for the upper layers of soil, which in turn may affect the amplification ratios and probability of exceedance obtained from seismic hazard studies. The HVSR peak comes out to be higher in monsoon, with a shift in predominant frequency as compared to the summer season of the year 2021. Also, the drastic reduction in shear wave velocity (up to ~10 m) of approximately 7%-15% is also perceived during the monsoon period with a slight decrease in compressional wave velocity. Generally, the increase in the Poisson ratios is found to have higher values during monsoon in comparison to the summer period. Our study may be very beneficial to various agricultural and geotechnical engineering projects.

Keywords: HVSR, shear wave velocity profile, Poisson ratio, microtremor data

Procedia PDF Downloads 61

Authors: Ahmet Parlak, Celalettin Bilgen

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In order to create an effective early warning system, Identification of the risks, preparation and carrying out risk modeling of risk scenarios, taking into account the shortcomings of the old disaster scenarios should be used to improve the system. In the light of this, the importance of risk modeling in creating an effective early warning system is understood. In the scope of TAFRISK project risk modeling trend analysis report on risk modeling developed and a demonstration was conducted for Risk Modeling for flood and mass movements. For risk modeling R&D, studies have been conducted to determine the information, and source of the information, to be gathered, to develop algorithms and to adapt the current algorithms to Turkey’s conditions for determining the risk score in the high disaster risk areas. For each type of the disaster; Disaster Deficit Index (DDI), Local Disaster Index (LDI), Prevalent Vulnerability Index (PVI), Risk Management Index (RMI) have been developed as disaster indices taking danger, sensitivity, fragility, and vulnerability, the physical and economic damage into account in the appropriate scale of the respective type.

Keywords: disaster, hazard, risk modeling, sensor

Procedia PDF Downloads 395

Authors: Mohammad E. Nikoofal, Mehmet Gumus

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Besides the many benefits of outsourcing, firms are still concerned about the lack of critical information regarding both the risk levels and actions of their suppliers that are just a few links away. In this paper, we study the effectiveness of audit for the manufacturer in managing her supplier’s process improvement effort when the supplier is privately informed about his disruption risk and actions. By comparing the agency costs associated with the optimal menu of contracts with and without audit, we completely characterize the value of audit for all the cases from the perspectives of both manufacturer, and supplier as well as total supply chain. First, the analysis of value of audit from the manufacturer’s perspective shows that she can strictly benefit from auditing her supplier’s actions. To the best of our knowledge, this result has not been documented before in the principal-agent literature under a standard setting where the agent is assumed to be risk-neutral and not protected by limited liability constraints. Second, we find that not only the manufacturer but also the supplier can strictly benefit from audit. Third, the audit enables the manufacturer to customize her contract offerings based on the reliability of the supplier. Finally, by analyzing the impact of problem parameters on the value of audit, we identify the conditions under which an audit would be beneficial for individual supply chain parties as well as total supply chain.

Keywords: supply disruption, adverse selection, moral hazard incentives, audit

Procedia PDF Downloads 433