Search results for: general combining ability

Authors: Mohd Harun, Cini Varghese, Eldho Varghese, Seema Jaggi

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Hybridization crosses find a vital role in breeding experiments to evaluate the combining abilities of individual parental lines or crosses for creation of lines with desirable qualities. There are various ways of obtaining progenies and further studying the combining ability effects of the lines taken in a breeding programme. Some of the most common methods are diallel or two-way cross, triallel or three-way cross, tetra-allele or four-way cross. These techniques help the breeders to improve the quantitative traits which are of economical as well as nutritional importance in crops and animals. Amongst these methods, tetra-allele cross provides extra information in terms of the higher specific combining ability (sca) effects and the hybrids thus produced exhibit individual as well as population buffering mechanism because of the broad genetic base. Most of the common commercial hybrids in corn are either three-way or four-way cross hybrids. Tetra-allele cross came out as the most practical and acceptable scheme for the production of slaughter pigs having fast growth rate, good feed efficiency, and carcass quality. Tetra-allele crosses are mostly used for exploitation of heterosis in case of commercial silkworm production. Experimental designs involving tetra-allele crosses have been studied extensively in literature. Optimality of designs has also been considered as a researchable issue. In practical situations, it is advisable to include sca effects in the model as this information is needed by the breeder to improve economically and nutritionally important quantitative traits. Thus, a model that provides information regarding the specific traits by utilizing sca effects along with general combining ability (gca) effects may help the breeders to deal with the problem of various stresses. In this paper, a model for experimental designs involving tetra-allele crosses that incorporates both gca and sca has been defined. Optimality aspects of such designs have been discussed incorporating sca effects in the model. Orthogonality conditions have been derived for block designs ensuring estimation of contrasts among the gca effects, after eliminating the nuisance factors, independently from sca effects. User friendly SAS macro and web solution (webPTC) have been developed for the generation and analysis of such designs.

Keywords: general combining ability, optimality, specific combining ability, tetra-allele cross, webPTC

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Authors: Terkimbi Vange, Obed Abimiku, Lateef Lekan Bello, Lucky Omoigui

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In 2014 and 2015, eight maize inbred lines resistant to Striga hermonthica (Del) Benth were crossed in 8 x 8 half diallel (Griffing method 11, model 1). The eight parent inbred lines were planted out in a Randomized Complete Block Design (RCBD) with three replications at two different Striga infested environments (Lafia and Makurdi) during the late cropping season. The objectives were to determine the combining ability of Striga resistant maize inbred lines and identify suitable inbreds for hybrids development. The lines were used to estimate general combining ability (GCA), and specific combining ability (SCA) effects for Striga related parameters such as Striga shoot counts, Striga damage rating (SDR), plant height and grain yield and other agronomic traits. The result of combined ANOVA revealed that mean squares were highly significant for all traits except Striga damage rating (SDR1) at 8WAS and Striga emergence count (STECOI) at 8WAS. Mean squares for SCA were significantly low for all traits. TZSTR190 was the highest yielding parent, and TZSTR166xTZST190 was the highest yielding hybrid (cross). Parent TZSTR166, TZEI188, TZSTR190 and TZSTR193 shows significant (p < 0.05) positive GCA effects for grain yield while the rest had negative GCA effects for grain yield. Parent TZSTR166, TZEI188, TZSTR190, and TZSTR193 could be used for initiating hybrid development. Also, TZSTR166xTZSTR190 cross was the best specific combiner followed by TZEI188xTZSTR193, TZEI80xTZSTR193, and TZSTR190xTZSTR193. TZSTR166xTZSTR190 and TZSTR190xTZSTR193 had the highest SCA effects. However, TZEI80 and TZSTR190 manifested a high positive SCA effect with TZSTR166 indicating that these two inbreds combined better with TZSTR166.

Keywords: combining ability, Striga hermonthica, resistance, grain yield

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Authors: Chalermwut Wijit

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This research is conducted in order to 1) study the result of applying “Active Learning” in general education subject to develop creativity 2) explore problems and obstacles in applying Active Learning in general education subject to improve the creativity in 1780 undergraduate students who registered this subject in the first semester 2013. The research is implemented by allocating the students into several groups of 10 -15 students and assigning them to design the activities for society under the four main conditions including 1) require no financial resources 2) practical 3) can be attended by every student 4) must be accomplished within 2 weeks. The researcher evaluated the creativity prior and after the study. Ultimately, the problems and obstacles from creating activity are evaluated from the open-ended questions in the questionnaires. The study result states that overall average scores on students’ ability increased significantly in terms of creativity, analytical ability and the synthesis, the complexity of working plan and team working. It can be inferred from the outcome that active learning is one of the most efficient methods in developing creativity in general education.

Keywords: creative thinking, active learning, general education, social sustainability

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Authors: Prathiksha Kamath, Pratibha Jamkhandi, Prateek Ghanti, Priyanshu Gupta, M. Lakshmi Neelima

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Combining Image Captioning and Visual Question Answering (VQA) tasks have emerged as a new and exciting research area. The image captioning task involves generating a textual description that summarizes the content of the image. VQA aims to answer a natural language question about the image. Both these tasks include computer vision and natural language processing (NLP) and require a deep understanding of the content of the image and semantic relationship within the image and the ability to generate a response in natural language. There has been remarkable growth in both these tasks with rapid advancement in deep learning. In this paper, we present a comprehensive review of recent progress in combining image captioning and visual question-answering (VQA) tasks. We first discuss both image captioning and VQA tasks individually and then the various ways in which both these tasks can be integrated. We also analyze the challenges associated with these tasks and ways to overcome them. We finally discuss the various datasets and evaluation metrics used in these tasks. This paper concludes with the need for generating captions based on the context and captions that are able to answer the most likely asked questions about the image so as to aid the VQA task. Overall, this review highlights the significant progress made in combining image captioning and VQA, as well as the ongoing challenges and opportunities for further research in this exciting and rapidly evolving field, which has the potential to improve the performance of real-world applications such as autonomous vehicles, robotics, and image search.

Keywords: image captioning, visual question answering, deep learning, natural language processing

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Authors: Akbar Rostamabadi, Adel Mazloumi, Abbas Rahimi Foroushani

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This study aimed to determine the Work Ability Index (WAI) and examine the influence of health dimensions and demographic variables on the work ability of Iranian farmers working in small farm enterprises. A cross-sectional study was conducted among 294 male farmers. The WAI and SF-36 questionnaires were used to determine work ability and health status. The effect of demographics variables on the work ability index was investigated with the independent samples t-test and one-way ANOVA. Also, multiple linear regression analysis was used to test the association between the mean WAI score and the SF-36 scales. The mean WAI score was 35.1 (SD=10.6). One-way ANOVA revealed a significant relationship between the mean WAI and age. Multiple linear regression analysis showed that work ability was more influenced by physical scales of the health dimensions, such as physical function, role-physical, and general health, whereas a lower association was found for mental scales such as mental health. The average WAI was at a moderate work ability level for the sample population of farmers in this study. Based on the WAI guidelines, improvement of work ability and identification of factors affecting it should be considered a priority in interventional programs. Given the influence of health dimensions on WAI, any intervention program for preservation and promotion work ability among the studied farmers should be based on balancing and optimizing the physical and psychosocial work environments, with a special focus on reducing physical work load.

Keywords: farmers, SF-36, Work Ability Index (WAI), Iran

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Authors: Serkan Aras, Emrah Gulay

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Combining various forecasting models is an important tool for researchers to attain more accurate forecasts. A great number of papers have shown that selecting single models as dissimilar models, or methods based on different information as possible leads to better forecasting performances. However, there is not a certain rule regarding the number of single models to be used in any combining methods. This study focuses on determining the optimal or near optimal number for single models with the help of statistical tests. An extensive experiment is carried out by utilizing some well-known time series data sets from diverse fields. Furthermore, many rival forecasting methods and some of the commonly used combining methods are employed. The obtained results indicate that some statistically significant performance differences can be found regarding the number of the single models in the combining methods under investigation.

Keywords: combined forecast, forecasting, M-competition, time series

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Authors: Angelyn Del Mundo

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Bullying cases are a proliferating issue that schools need to address. This calls for a challenge in providing effective measures to reduce bullying. The study aimed to determine which among the socio-emotional aspects of adolescent males could predict bullying. The respondents of the study were the grades 10 and 11 level and the selection of the respondents was based on the names listed by the teachers and guidance counselors through the Student Nomination Questionnaire. The Bullying Survey Questionnaire Checklist was answered by the respondents to be able to identify their most observed bullying behavior. On the other hand, the level of their mental ability was measured through the use of Otis-Lennon School Ability Test, while their socio-emotional aspects was is classified into 2 contexts: emotional intelligence and personality traits which were determined with the use of Bar-On Emotional Quotient Inventory: Youth Version (BarOn EQ-i:YV) and the Five-Factor Personality Inventory-Children (FFPI-C). Results indicated that majority of the respondents have average level of mental ability and socio-emotional aspects. However, many students have low to markedly low level interpersonal scale. Furthermore, general mood and emotional regulation were found as predictors of bullying behaviors. These findings became the basis for a proposed bullying intervention program.

Keywords: bullying, emotional intelligence, mental ability, personality traits

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Authors: Patricia M. Boechler, Heather M. Gautreau

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In this research study, postsecondary students completed an information learning task in an avatar-based 3D virtual learning environment. Three factors were of interest in relation to learning; 1) the influence of collaborative vs. independent conditions, 2) the influence of the spatial arrangement of the virtual environment (linear, random and clustered), and 3) the relationship of individual differences such as spatial skill, general computer experience and video game experience to learning. Students completed pretest measures of prior computer experience and prior spatial skill. Following the premeasure administration, students were given instruction to move through the virtual environment and study all the material within 10 information stations. In the collaborative condition, students proceeded in randomly assigned pairs, while in the independent condition they proceeded alone. After this learning phase, all students individually completed a multiple choice test to determine information retention. The overall results indicated that students in pairs did not perform any better or worse than independent students. As far as individual differences, only spatial ability predicted the performance of students. General computer experience and video game experience did not. Taking a closer look at the pairs and spatial ability, comparisons were made on pairs high/matched spatial ability, pairs low/matched spatial ability and pairs that were mismatched on spatial ability. The results showed that both high/matched pairs and mismatched pairs outperformed low/matched pairs. That is, if a pair had even one individual with strong spatial ability they would perform better than pairs with only low spatial ability individuals. This suggests that, in virtual environments, the specific individuals that are paired together are important for performance outcomes. The paper also includes a discussion of trends within the data that have implications for virtual environment education.

Keywords: avatar-based, virtual environment, paired learning, individual differences

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Authors: Wang Xingjuan, Qian Dongming

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As a common thinking ability, spatial thinking ability plays an increasingly important role in the information age. The key to cultivating students' spatial thinking ability is to cultivate students' ability to process and transform graphics. The 3D printing course enables students to constantly touch the rotation and movement of objects during the modeling process and to understand spatial graphics from different views. To this end, this article combines the classic PSVT: R test to explore the impact of 3D printing courses on the spatial thinking ability of middle school students. The results of the study found that: (1) Through the study of the 3D printing course, the students' spatial ability test scores have been significantly improved, which indirectly reflects the improvement of the spatial thinking ability level. (2) The student's spatial thinking ability test results are influenced by the parent's occupation.

Keywords: 3D printing, middle school students, spatial thinking ability, influence

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Authors: Elvira Wahyuni

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This study is a classroom action research. The general objective of this study was to find out students’ speaking ability through teaching English by using video and to find out the effectiveness of using video in teaching English to improve students’ speaking ability. The subjects of this study were 34 of the first-year students of SMAN 12 Pekanbaru who were learning English as a foreign language (EFL). Students were given pre-test before the treatment and post-test after the treatment. Quantitative data was collected by using speaking test requiring the students to respond to the recorded questions. Qualitative data was collected through observation sheets and field notes. The research finding reveals that there is a significant improvement of the students’ speaking ability through the use of video in speaking class. The qualitative data gave a description and additional information about the learning process done by the students. The research findings indicate that the use of video in teaching and learning is good in increasing learning outcome.

Keywords: English teaching, fun learning, speaking ability, video

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Authors: Wichian Sriprachan, Chutikarn Sriviboon

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The objectives of this research were to study the management of local towns and to develop a better model of town management according to the Philosophy of Sufficiency Economy. This study utilized qualitative research, field research, as well as documentary research at the same time. A total of 10 local towns or Tambons of Supanburi province, Thailand were selected for an in-depth interview. The findings revealed that the model of local town management according to Philosophy of Sufficient Economy was in a level of “good” and the model of management has the five basic guidelines: 1) ability to manage budget information and keep it up-to-date, 2) ability to decision making according to democracy rules, 3) ability to use check and balance system, 4) ability to control, follow, and evaluation, and 5) ability to allow the general public to participate. In addition, the findings also revealed that the human resource management according to Philosophy of Sufficient Economy includes obeying laws, using proper knowledge, and having integrity in five areas: plan, recruit, select, train, and maintain human resources.

Keywords: management, local town (Tambon), principles of sufficiency economy, marketing management

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Authors: Rana Zeina

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Cognitive and behavioral symptoms may, in fact, overlap and be related to the level of the general cognitive function. We measured the behavioral aspects of autism and its correlation to the cognitive ability in 30 children with ASD. We used a neuropsychological battery CANTAB eclipse to evaluate the ASD children's cognitive ability. Individuals with ASDs and challenging behaviors showed significant correlation between some cognitive abilities and motor behavior aspects. Based on these findings we can conclude that the motor behavioral problems in autism affect specific cognitive abilities in ASDs such as comprehension, learning, reversal, acquisition, attention set shifting, and speed of reaction to one stimulus. Future research should also focus on the relationship between motor stereotypes and other subtypes of repetitive behaviors, such as verbal stereotypes, and ritual and routine adherence and use different types of CANTAB tests.

Keywords: cognitive ability, CANTAB test, behaviour motor aspects, autism spectrum disorders

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Authors: Mahnaz Hosseinzadeh, Mohammad Reza Mehregan

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In this paper, we have developed a morphological field to assist multi- methodology (combining methodologies together in whole or part) in Operations Research (OR) for the problem contexts in Iranian organizations. So, we have attempted to identify some dimensions for problem context according to Iranian organizational problems. Then, a general morphological program is designed which helps the OR practitioner to determine the suitable OR methodology as output for any configuration of conditions in a problem context as input and to reveal the fields necessary to be improved in OR. Applying such a program would have interesting results for OR practitioners.

Keywords: hard, soft and emancipatory operations research, General Morphological Analysis (GMA), multi-methodology, problem context

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Authors: Shih-Chieh Liao, Jen-Ying Ma

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Dual protagonists game always bring a unique experience compared to the other games. This research wants to discuss whether the dual protagonists have the moving ability and special ability or not; it will affect the preference of the players. This research will focus on the single-player dual protagonists game. After the observation, we found that when players control the dual protagonists, the moving ability and special ability are a great point defining the preference of players. When players control the character, which is lack of moving ability, they often feel impatient with the inconvenient mechanism and then reduce the will to play with the character or even the game. Furthermore, the special ability is also important in the situation that there is another character to compare with. When the character is too powerful, players tend not to use the weaker one. In addition, gender is a big deal in the games. It surprisingly controls the will of play occasionally. In view of these, this research makes a single-player dual protagonists game and the dual protagonists are limited to male and female. The experiment content detected with Electrodermal Activity (EDA) includes seven different situations. (1) male and females both have the moving ability and special ability. (2) male and female both have a special ability, but female does not have the moving ability. (3) male and females both have a special ability, but the male does not have the moving ability. (4) male and female both have the moving ability, but the male does not have special ability (5) male and female both have the moving ability, but female does not have a special ability (6) male-only has the moving ability and female-only has a special ability (7) male-only has a special ability and female only has the moving ability. The experiment will evaluate the emotional changes of the subjects in those situations. The result sorted by the significance of player preference is (6)>(4)>(1)>(2)>(5)>(3)>(7). The result demonstrates that players prefer females with special abilities or males with moving abilities. The game developer could design the ability of dual protagonists based on this research. Therefore, players may have a better experience.

Keywords: biofeedback, dual protagonists, emotional responses, psychology, user experience

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Authors: Ioanna Taouki, Marie Lallier, David Soto

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Metacognition refers to the capacity to reflect upon our own cognitive processes. Although there is an ongoing discussion in the literature on the role of metacognition in learning and academic achievement, little is known about its neurodevelopmental trajectories in early childhood, when children begin to receive formal education in reading. Here, we evaluate the metacognitive ability, estimated under a recently developed Signal Detection Theory model, of a cohort of children aged between 6 and 7 (N=60), who performed three two-alternative-forced-choice tasks (two linguistic: lexical decision task, visual attention span task, and one non-linguistic: emotion recognition task) including trial-by-trial confidence judgements. Our study has three aims. First, we investigated how metacognitive ability (i.e., how confidence ratings track accuracy in the task) relates to performance in general standardized tasks related to students' reading and general cognitive abilities using Spearman's and Bayesian correlation analysis. Second, we assessed whether or not young children recruit common mechanisms supporting metacognition across the different task domains or whether there is evidence for domain-specific metacognition at this early stage of development. This was done by examining correlations in metacognitive measures across different task domains and evaluating cross-task covariance by applying a hierarchical Bayesian model. Third, using robust linear regression and Bayesian regression models, we assessed whether metacognitive ability in this early stage is related to the longitudinal learning of children in a linguistic and a non-linguistic task. Notably, we did not observe any association between students’ reading skills and metacognitive processing in this early stage of reading acquisition. Some evidence consistent with domain-general metacognition was found, with significant positive correlations between metacognitive efficiency between lexical and emotion recognition tasks and substantial covariance indicated by the Bayesian model. However, no reliable correlations were found between metacognitive performance in the visual attention span and the remaining tasks. Remarkably, metacognitive ability significantly predicted children's learning in linguistic and non-linguistic domains a year later. These results suggest that metacognitive skill may be dissociated to some extent from general (i.e., language and attention) abilities and further stress the importance of creating educational programs that foster students’ metacognitive ability as a tool for long term learning. More research is crucial to understand whether these programs can enhance metacognitive ability as a transferable skill across distinct domains or whether unique domains should be targeted separately.

Keywords: confidence ratings, development, metacognitive efficiency, reading acquisition

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Authors: Yuzhi Cai

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In this paper, we discuss a Bayesian approach to quantile autoregressive (QAR) time series model estimation and forecasting. Together with a combining forecasts technique, we then predict USD to GBP currency exchange rates. Combined forecasts contain all the information captured by the fitted QAR models at different quantile levels and are therefore better than those obtained from individual models. Our results show that an unequally weighted combining method performs better than other forecasting methodology. We found that a median AR model can perform well in point forecasting when the predictive density functions are symmetric. However, in practice, using the median AR model alone may involve the loss of information about the data captured by other QAR models. We recommend that combined forecasts should be used whenever possible.

Keywords: combining forecasts, MCMC, predictive density functions, quantile forecasting, quantile modelling

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Authors: Greeshma Sharma, Sushil Chandra, Vijander Singh, Alok Prakash Mittal

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Navigational ability requires spatial representation, planning, and memory. It covers three interdependent domains, i.e. cognitive and perceptual factors, neural information processing, and variability in brain microstructure. Many attempts have been made to see the role of spatial representation in the navigational ability, and the individual differences have been identified in the neural substrate. But, there is also a need to address the influence of planning, memory on navigational ability. The present study aims to evaluate relations of aforementioned factors in the navigational ability. Total 30 participants volunteered in the study of a virtual shopping complex and subsequently were classified into good and bad navigators based on their performances. The result showed that planning ability was the most correlated factor for the navigational ability and also the discriminating factor between the good and bad navigators. There was also found the correlations between spatial memory recall and navigational ability. However, non-verbal episodic memory and spatial memory recall were also found to be correlated with the learning variable. This study attempts to identify differences between people with more and less navigational ability on the basis of planning and memory.

Keywords: memory, planning navigational ability, virtual reality

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Authors: Aidah Alias, Mustaffa Halabi Azahari, Adzrool Idzwan Ismail, Salasiah Ahmad

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Education is one of the most important elements in a human life. Educations help us in learning and achieve new things in life. The ability of hearing gave us chances to hear voices and it is important in our communication. Hearing stories told by others; hearing news and music to create our creative and sense; seeing and hearing make us understand directly the message trying to deliver. But, what will happen if we are born deaf or having hearing loss while growing up? The objectives of this paper are to identify the current practice in teaching and learning among deaf students and to analyse an appropriate method in enhancing learning process among deaf students. A case study method was employed by using methods of observation and interview to selected deaf students and teachers. The findings indicated that the suitable method of teaching for deaf students is by using pictures and body movement. In other words, by combining these two medium of images and body movement, the best medium that the study suggested is by using video or motion pictures. The study concluded and recommended that video or motion pictures is recommended medium to be used in teaching and learning for deaf students.

Keywords: deaf, photographic images, visual communication, education, learning ability

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Authors: Rohit Mittal, Bright Keswani, Amit Mithal

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This paper provides a sense about the application of computational intelligence techniques used to develop computer games, especially car racing. For the deep sense and knowledge of artificial intelligence, this paper is divided into various sections that is optimization, imitation, innovation and combining approach of optimization and imitation. This paper is mainly concerned with combining approach which tells different aspects of using fitness measures and supervised learning techniques used to imitate aspects of behavior. The main achievement of this paper is based on modelling player behaviour and evolving new game content such as racing tracks as single car racing on single track.

Keywords: evolution algorithm, genetic, optimization, imitation, racing, innovation, gaming

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Authors: Shahzad Yousaf, Imran Shafi

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This paper presents a new method for calculation of pressure loss coefficients by use of the artificial neural network (ANN) in tee junctions. Geometry and flow parameters are feed into ANN as the inputs for purpose of training the network. Efficacy of the network is demonstrated by comparison of the experimental and ANN based calculated data of pressure loss coefficients for combining flows in a tee junction. Reynolds numbers ranging from 200 to 14000 and discharge ratios varying from minimum to maximum flow for calculation of pressure loss coefficients have been used. Pressure loss coefficients calculated using ANN are compared to the models from literature used in junction flows. The results achieved after the application of ANN agrees reasonably to the experimental values.

Keywords: artificial neural networks, combining flow, pressure loss coefficients, solar collector tee junctions

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Authors: Evgeniya V. Gavrilova, Sofya S. Belova

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The present study was aimed at clarifying the relationship between general intellectual abilities and efficiency in free recall and rhymed words generation task after incidental exposure to linguistic stimuli. The theoretical frameworks stress that general intellectual abilities are based on intentional mental strategies. In this context, it seems to be crucial to examine the efficiency of incidentally presented information processing in cognitive task and its relation to general intellectual abilities. The sample consisted of 32 Russian students. Participants were exposed to pairs of words. Each pair consisted of two common nouns or two city names. Participants had to decide whether a city name was presented in each pair. Thus words’ semantics was processed intentionally. The city names were considered to be focal stimuli, whereas common nouns were considered to be peripheral stimuli. Along with that each pair of words could be rhymed or not be rhymed, but this phonemic aspect of stimuli’s characteristic (rhymed and non-rhymed words) was processed incidentally. Then participants were asked to produce as many rhymes as they could to new words. The stimuli presented earlier could be used as well. After that, participants had to retrieve all words presented earlier. In the end, verbal and non-verbal abilities were measured with number of special psychometric tests. As for free recall task intentionally processed focal stimuli had an advantage in recall compared to peripheral stimuli. In addition all the rhymed stimuli were recalled more effectively than non-rhymed ones. The inverse effect was found in words generation task where participants tended to use mainly peripheral stimuli compared to focal ones. Furthermore peripheral rhymed stimuli were most popular target category of stimuli that was used in this task. Thus the information that was processed incidentally had a supplemental influence on efficiency of stimuli processing as well in free recall as in word generation task. Different patterns of correlations between intellectual abilities and efficiency in different stimuli processing in both tasks were revealed. Non-verbal reasoning ability correlated positively with free recall of peripheral rhymed stimuli, but it was not related to performance on rhymed words’ generation task. Verbal reasoning ability correlated positively with free recall of focal stimuli. As for rhymed words generation task, verbal intelligence correlated negatively with generation of focal stimuli and correlated positively with generation of all peripheral stimuli. The present findings lead to two key conclusions. First, incidentally processed stimuli had an advantage in free recall and word generation task. Thus incidental information processing appeared to be crucial for subsequent cognitive performance. Secondly, it was demonstrated that incidentally processed stimuli were recalled more frequently by participants with high nonverbal reasoning ability and were more effectively used by participants with high verbal reasoning ability in subsequent cognitive tasks. That implies that general intellectual abilities could benefit from operating by different levels of information processing while cognitive problem solving. This research was supported by the “Grant of President of RF for young PhD scientists” (contract № is 14.Z56.17.2980- MK) and the Grant № 15-36-01348a2 of Russian Foundation for Humanities.

Keywords: focal and peripheral stimuli, general intellectual abilities, incidental information processing

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Authors: Yuzhi Cai

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This talk presents a Bayesian approach to quantile autoregressive (QAR) time series model estimation and forecasting. We establish that the joint posterior distribution of the model parameters and future values is well defined. The associated MCMC algorithm for parameter estimation and forecasting converges to the posterior distribution quickly. We also present a combining forecasts technique to produce more accurate out-of-sample forecasts by using a weighted sequence of fitted QAR models. A moving window method to check the quality of the estimated conditional quantiles is developed. We verify our methodology using simulation studies and then apply it to currency exchange rate data. An application of the method to the USD to GBP daily currency exchange rates will also be discussed. The results obtained show that an unequally weighted combining method performs better than other forecasting methodology.

Keywords: combining forecasts, MCMC, quantile modelling, quantile forecasting, predictive density functions

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Authors: Yue Xu

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This paper establishes the fund manager’s capital raising ability as an important managerial skill that fund firms exploit to generate higher firm revenues. Fund firms reallocate fund managers with high capital raising ability to other funds with large outflows. Investors demand the capital raising ability of managers and reward it by investing more capital despite lower future alphas. A team with a larger experience difference between reallocated managers and existing managers attracts more capital inflows, suggesting that there is a synergy effect on the fund manager’s capital raising ability.

Keywords: mutual fund, manager, fund firm, reallocation, revenue

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Authors: Ambissah Asah Brigitte

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This research is guided by observations in the types of education offered at the secondary level in Cameroon. The secondary education system in Cameroon comprises two types of education, including General Education and Technical and Vocational Education. Although General Education and, Technical and Vocational Education are given equal importance by public authorities, General Education remains on the thriving trend, enjoying the greatest enrolment. In the meantime, Technical and Vocational Education is still to reach the adequate momentum expected to fostering the country’s full-fledged development, as specified in the National Development Strategy, which is the blue print of State policies in Cameroon for the 2020-2030 decade. Vocational Education is credited for its ability to foster a country’s development, since it teaches students the precise skills and knowledge needed to carry out a specific craft, technical skill or trade. Yet, formal training on Vocational Education for teachers offers a pale face in secondary education. This limits the ability of the educational system to nurture vocations and provide the country’s economy with the manpower necessary to achieving development goals. This article seeks to analyse how concretely does the institutional framework spur vocational skills in secondary school teachers. It overviews the instruments instituting Vocational Education at the secondary level in Cameroon, then assesses their effective implementation on the ground. Questionnaires addressed to both active teachers and vocational education policy-makers serve to collect data which are analysed using descriptive statistics. The final objective is to contribute in the debate urging to rethink the role of teachers in bolstering Vocational Education, which is the cornerstone of industrial development. This is true everywhere in the world. In Cameroon and in Africa in general, teachers must be empowered in this field with specific sets of competencies they will need to pass on to learners. They equally need to be given opportunities to acquire and adapt their knowledge and teaching skills accordingly.

Keywords: vocational education, cameroon, institutional framework, national development, competencies and skills

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Authors: Celso L. Fernando, Toshio Yoshii, Takahiro Tsubota

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Understanding the causes of a road accident and predicting their occurrence is key to preventing deaths and serious injuries from road accident events. Traditional statistical methods such as the Poisson and the Logistics regressions have been used to find the association of the traffic environmental factors with the accident occurred; recently, an artificial neural network, ANN, a computational technique that learns from historical data to make a more accurate prediction, has emerged. Although the ability to make accurate predictions, the ANN has difficulty dealing with highly unbalanced attribute patterns distribution in the training dataset; in such circumstances, the ANN treats the minority group as noise. However, in the real world data, the minority group is often the group of interest; e.g., in the road traffic accident data, the events of the accident are the group of interest. This study proposes a combination of the k-means with the ANN to improve the predictive ability of the neural network model by alleviating the effect of the unbalanced distribution of the attribute patterns in the training dataset. The results show that the proposed method improves the ability of the neural network to make a prediction on a highly unbalanced distributed attribute patterns dataset; however, on an even distributed attribute patterns dataset, the proposed method performs almost like a standard neural network.

Keywords: accident risks estimation, artificial neural network, deep learning, k-mean, road safety

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Authors: Abebayehu Yohannes, Hsiu-Ling Chen, Chiu-Chen Chang

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Mathematics reading and spatial ability are important learning components in mathematics education. However, many students struggle to understand real-world problems and lack the spatial ability to form internal imagery. To cope with this problem, in this study, an interactive e-book was developed. The result indicated that both groups had a significant increase in the mathematics reading ability test, and a significant difference was observed in the overall mathematics reading score in favor of the experimental group. In addition, the interactive e-book learning mode had significant impacts on students’ spatial ability. It was also found that the richness of content with visual and interactive elements provided in the interactive e-book enhanced students’ satisfaction with the teaching material.

Keywords: interactive e-books, spatial ability, mathematics reading, satisfaction, three view

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Authors: Wullapa Wongsinlatam

Abstract:

Back propagation algorithm (BP) is a widely used technique in artificial neural network and has been used as a tool for solving the time series problems, such as decreasing training time, maximizing the ability to fall into local minima, and optimizing sensitivity of the initial weights and bias. This paper proposes an improvement of a BP technique which is called IM-COH algorithm (IM-COH). By combining IM-COH algorithm with cuckoo search algorithm (CS), the result is cuckoo search improved control output hidden layer algorithm (CS-IM-COH). This new algorithm has a better ability in optimizing sensitivity of the initial weights and bias than the original BP algorithm. In this research, the algorithm of CS-IM-COH is compared with the original BP, the IM-COH, and the original BP with CS (CS-BP). Furthermore, the selected benchmarks, four time series samples, are shown in this research for illustration. The research shows that the CS-IM-COH algorithm give the best forecasting results compared with the selected samples.

Keywords: artificial neural networks, back propagation algorithm, time series, local minima problem, metaheuristic optimization

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Authors: Jolie M. Martin

Abstract:

Running experiments while logging detailed user actions has become the standard way of testing product features at Pinterest, as at many other Internet companies. While this technique offers plenty of statistical power to assess the effects of product changes on behavioral metrics, it does not often give us much insight into why users respond the way they do. By combining at-scale experiments with smaller surveys of users in each experimental condition, we have developed a unique approach for measuring the impact of our product and communication treatments on user sentiment, attitudes, and comprehension.

Keywords: experiments, methodology, surveys, user experience

Procedia PDF Downloads 290

Authors: Duchduen Bhanthumnavin

Abstract:

One of the most important characteristics to increase competitive ability in undergraduate students after post COVID-19 era is goal setting and self-control. This correlational study aimes at investigating the influence of psycho-social antecedents on goal setting and self-control in 550 Thai university students. Results from multiple regression analysis revealed that the important predictors of this characteristic were reasoning ability, psychological immunity, attitudes toward competition, core self-evaluation, and family nurture, which yielded 54.28 predictive percentage in the total sample. Moreover, the analysis identified three at-risk groups, namely, male students, low GPA students, and students with siblings. Discussion and implications in general and for specific purposes for the at-risk groups were offered.

Keywords: antecedents, plan and self-control, predictors, university students

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Authors: Sumaira Ashraf, Elisabete G.S. Félix, Zélia Serrasqueiro

Abstract:

Traditional financial distress prediction models performed well to predict bankrupt and insolvent firms of the developed markets. Previous studies particularly focused on the predictability of financial distress, financial failure, and bankruptcy of firms. This paper contributes to the literature by extending the definition of financial distress with the inclusion of early warning signs related to quotation of face value, dividend/bonus declaration, annual general meeting, and listing fee. The study used five well-known distress prediction models to see if they have the ability to predict early warning signs of financial distress. Results showed that the predictive ability of the models varies over time and decreases specifically for the sample with early warning signs of financial distress. Furthermore, the study checked the differences in the predictive ability of the models with respect to the financial crisis. The results conclude that the predictive ability of the traditional financial distress prediction models decreases for the firms with early warning signs of financial distress and during the time of financial crisis. The study developed a new model comprising significant variables from the five models and one new variable earning response. This new model outperforms the old distress prediction models before, during and after the financial crisis. Thus, it can be used by researchers, organizations and all other concerned parties to indicate early warning signs for the emerging markets.

Keywords: financial distress, emerging market, prediction models, Z-Score, logit analysis, probit model

Procedia PDF Downloads 219